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Jason Mitchell | Archive | Email |
Staff Writer


Playoff Schedule Analysis: Update
Players with favorable matchups Weeks 14-16
11/20/14

Way back in the preseason, I looked ahead to the fantasy postseason and discussed The Good and The Bad when it came to schedule difficulty.

Now that we’re inching closer to the fantasy postseason, I want to take a look back at the players I listed in the preseason and see if there are any new names to consider. If you are in line to make the playoffs, use this article to plan ahead. There is still a lot of adding, dropping and trading (depending on your league’s deadline) to be done between now and the playoffs. While it’s certainly not the only way to win, setting up your team with the easiest schedule possible can only maximize your chances of winning a title.

My biggest tool in writing this article will be the Fantasy Strength of Schedule Tool right here on FFToday. I will only feature a few players at each position, so if you want all the schedule details on your own teams, that’s definitely the place to do it.

QUARTERBACK

The Good

Preseason List

Aaron Rodgers
Aaron Rodgers has a couple neutral matchups with Atlanta and Buffalo in Weeks 14 and 15, though neutral can be considered easy when we’re talking about Rodgers. In Week 16 it gets even easier with Tampa Bay. I doubt you were too concerned about Rodgers anyway.

Matthew Stafford
Matthew Stafford’s Tampa Bay (Week 14) and Chicago (Week 16) matchups look even better than they did in the preseason, and the sandwich game against Minnesota is tough but not close to impossible. He hasn’t lived up to preseason expectations, but if you are able to make the playoffs with him, you should be fine.

Nick Foles
The quarterback in Philadelphia has changed, but the schedule remains relatively easy all the same. The Dallas matchup is slightly more difficult than it seemed in the preseason, but the Seattle game isn’t nearly as intimidating (still tough, but not 2013 Seahawks tough), so it all balances out.

Looking Better Now

Tony Romo

If Romo can stay upright, he should be a playoff asset.

Tony Romo
The Cowboys get two of the easiest matchups in the league to start the playoffs with Chicago and Philadelphia. So as long as Tony Romo’s back holds up, he’s good to go for his playoff-bound owners.

Drew Brees
The same can be said for Drew Brees, as he leads off the playoffs with Carolina and Chicago. In the preseason, the Panthers defense would have been considered a difficult matchup, but that is definitely no longer the case.

Robert Griffin III
Griffin’s playoff schedule looks nice, but that may not matter if the Redskins offense continues to look as bad as it did against Tampa Bay in Week 11. In some cases, it doesn’t matter how good a matchup is if the player can’t perform.

The Bad

Preseason List

Carson Palmer
Carson Palmer is out with an injury, so he’s not helping anybody. Palmer’s replacement, Drew Stanton, has adopted the same difficult schedule that it seemed Carson Palmer would have. If you’re in a position where you might be considering a guy like Stanton, consider someone else.

Johnny Manziel
The real starter in Cleveland, Brian Hoyer, actually has a somewhat easy playoff schedule. Matchups that looked difficult in the preseason, Cincinnati and Carolina, now don’t seem difficult at all. He likely won’t sniff the lineup for your standard roster leagues but could definitely get some consideration in the playoffs of 2QB/superflex leagues.

Matt Ryan
The only name to survive the original list, Matt Ryan, has a playoff schedule that isn’t nearly as tough as it looked before the season. In fact, if I wrote a “Most Neutral Playoff Matchups” article, Matt Ryan would probably be the cover boy.

Looking Worse Now

Jay Cutler
His opponents in Weeks 14 and 15 are pretty neutral for matchups, but his real issue is the team he’ll meet in Week 16 (championship week for most leagues): Detroit. Based on season-long statistics, the Lions are the most difficult matchup for quarterbacks in the entire NFL. If you get to the fantasy title game with Cutler as your guy, you probably have to roll him out, but it wouldn’t be a bad idea to try avoiding the situation altogether with a trade to acquire a similar quarterback with a better schedule.

Derek Carr & Michael Vick
If any thought of using these two was creeping into your mind, look another direction. Each of these lower- tier quarterbacks has a rough stretch of games come playoff time.

RUNNING BACK

The Good

Preseason List

Trent Richardson/Ahmad Bradshaw
With an injury to Ahmad Bradshaw Sunday Night, Trent Richardson might be all by himself in the Colts backfield. That’s a nice bonus for his owners, but that’s as nice as it’s getting, because his playoff schedule certainly doesn’t look as good as it did in the preseason.

Rashad Jennings/Andre Williams
The Giants’ fantasy playoff schedule still starts off fine with the Titans in Week 14, but their Week 15 and 16 opponents (Washington and St. Louis) are both now on the difficult side of the neutral scale. You still probably have to use Rashad Jennings (assuming health), but it won’t be as simple as it seemed when you drafted him.

Chris Johnson/Chris Ivory
Unlike the other preseason picks, the Jets’ fantasy playoff schedule has remained relatively easy. Minnesota and Tennessee are both positive matchups, and the Patriots aren’t the best at stopping the run either. The real issue at hand for owners is whether they are willing to trust a Jets running back at fantasy playoff time.

Looking Better Now

Terrance West/Isaiah Crowell
The Browns backfield will present an interesting situation for their owners. The Browns get Cincinnati and Carolina in Weeks 15 and 16, two defenses that can’t stop the run at all. Based on Cleveland’s weekly strategy though, we have no clue which one will get the chance to benefit. At least we know it won’t be Ben Tate.

Joique Bell/Reggie Bush/Theo Riddick
The Lions’ playoff schedule should be a cakewalk for their running backs; it’s just a matter of which backs are healthy. If all of them are healthy, there may not be enough to go around for any of them to individually provide value.

Mark Ingram/Pierre Thomas/Khiry Robinson
Owners of Mark Ingram will be in for a playoff treat if he can maintain his current workload when the playoffs arrive with Carolina, Chicago and Atlanta on the docket. Pierre Thomas and Khiry Robinson could work their way back into the rotation by the time the playoffs come, but they have to make it back on the field first.

The Bad

Preseason List

Terrance West/Isaiah Crowell
As you saw above, the Browns running backs have had a significant change in fortunes when it comes to the fantasy playoffs. Now their playoff problems are usage- related, not schedule- related.

Montee Ball/Ronnie Hillman
The Broncos’ fantasy playoff schedule looks much better than it did in the preseason, and at the moment it appears neither running back I listed will benefit. Instead, it’s looking like it will be C.J. Anderson. Hopefully he doesn’t catch the same injury bug as his teammates.

Marshawn Lynch/Christine Michael
The Seahawks’ playoff schedule looks just difficult as it did three months ago (San Francisco in Week 15, Arizona in Week 16). Marshawn Lynch is generally considered part of the “matchup proof” tier of running backs, but that doesn’t mean his owners should expect many big games.

Looking Worse Now

Giovani Bernard/Jeremy Hill
Owners of Bengals backs might be dealing with playing time headaches as it is, plus their fantasy postseason lineup is looking relatively tough. A meeting with the Broncos in Championship Week is the worst news of all for those invested in Bernard and Hill.

Ryan Mathews/Branden Oliver
The Chargers will also run into a buzz saw of run defenses with Denver and San Francisco in Weeks 15 and 16. Since they will probably be in a committee the rest of the season, the playoff schedule makes the idea of depending on either of them even worse.

Darren McFadden/Maurice Jones-Drew/Latavius Murray
In Week 11, it appeared Latavius Murray finally started getting his opportunity when he took over late against the Chargers. His reward for finally getting this chance: perhaps the most difficult fantasy playoff schedule in the league. No matter who is starting for Oakland during those weeks should be on the bench in fantasy.

WIDE RECEIVER

The Good

Preseason List

Jordy Nelson/Randall Cobb/Jarrett Boykin
The Packers’ fantasy playoff schedule still looks good for owners of their wide receivers. The only difference from the preseason: if there is a third relevant Packers wide receiver at playoff time, it will be Davante Adams and not Jarrett Boykin.

Calvin Johnson/Golden Tate
Detroit’s schedule is still looking decent as well, though Minnesota’s pass defense has stepped up lately (save for their most recent game against Chicago). You’re starting them if you own them.

Dez Bryant/Terrance Williams
The Cowboys receivers also still have it easy, though at this point it’s likely only Dez Bryant owners benefitting. I doubt many playoff teams will put Terrance Williams in their lineup.

Looking Better Now

Andre Johnson/DeAndre Hopkins
When the Strength of Schedule Tool suggests that a team’s easiest opponent in a set of three is the Jaguars, you know it must be a nice lineup for fantasy owners. This is the case with owners of Houston wide receivers. Hopkins has surpassed Johnson as the one to own, but they both should be solid plays when the games matter most.

Cecil Shorts/Allen Hurns
I can’t imagine many playoff owners actually relying on Jaguars receivers at that point in the season, but if they are, it could be beneficial. Jacksonville gets Houston and Baltimore in Weeks 14 and 15, two teams that are below average at stopping the pass.

Brandin Cooks/Marques Colston/Kenny Stills
Brandin Cooks might not be playing come playoff time, depending on his recovery. That should make the pleasant playoff schedule even better for the remaining two Saints. Colston and Stills are both tough to trust, but if one of them gets a clear boost while Cooks is out, maybe one will be trustworthy by the time Weeks 14-16 come around.

The Bad

Preseason List

Tavon Austin/Kenny Britt
The Rams’ playoff schedule for receivers remains difficult in Week 16, but the other two weeks are a bit easier than they seemed in the preseason. Tavon Austin is not fantasy relevant in 2014, but Kenny Britt has a chance to become useful by playoff time if he can gain some momentum from his Week 11 performance with Shaun Hill back at the helm.

Josh Gordon/Miles Austin
Things have changed since the preseason, as Andrew Hawkins is now the No. 2 Browns wide receiver to own. With Josh Gordon returning just in time for the fantasy playoffs, his owners will get a schedule upgrade from the way things appeared in August. The Cincinnati matchup in Week 15 is still difficult, but the surrounding games shouldn’t be an issue.

Larry Fitzgerald/Michael Floyd
The Cardinals wide receivers have been frustrating for owners as it is, and the playoff schedule is still just as tough as it seemed before the season started. I’d be hard-pressed to include Fitzgerald, Floyd or John Brown in a playoff lineup.

Looking Worse Now

Demaryius Thomas/Emmanuel Sanders
The Broncos’ schedule for wide outs is looking pretty tough, but whom are we kidding? You aren’t letting that affect how you view either of these two fantasy studs.

Antonio Brown/Martavis Bryant
Brown is matchup proof, but if you own Martavis Bryant, take the tough playoff schedule into consideration. He might be a decent sell high based on his incredible start, yet tough fantasy playoff outlook. If your deadline has passed, you might have to play it week by week with Bryant. He’s good but has not reached “start no matter what” status.

Anquan Boldin/Michael Crabtree
Boldin and Crabtree have a tough- looking playoff schedule looming, though Week 16’s opponent (San Diego) has been worse in recent weeks. Getting to Week 16 might be a problem if you’re depending on either Boldin or Crabtree, though. Week 15 is a tough Seattle matchup, and it’s tough to really trust any member of the 49ers from week to week.

TIGHT END

The Good

Preseason List

Jared Cook
Cook’s fantasy playoff schedule still looks just as easy as it did in the preseason. His Week 16 game with the Giants is one of the easiest tight end matchups in the league. But, if you’re depending on Cook, it’s probably not likely that the playoffs are in your future.

Dennis Pitta/Owen Daniels
Due to an early season Pitta injury, Owen Daniels is the lead dog at tight end for the Ravens. Typically a solid position to be in, it won’t be as easy come playoff time. Their schedule seemed easy in the preseason, but now it actually looks rather difficult (particularly Miami in week 14).

Coby Fleener/Dwayne Allen
The Colts’ postseason schedule for tight ends also doesn’t appear as easy as it previously appeared. It will be tough to bench weekly fantasy starter Dwayne Allen (assuming health), or Coby Fleener if Allen’s injury keeps him out, because the Colts offense is still the Colts offense. If you have other equal options though, they could at least get consideration.

Looking Better Now

Delanie Walker
The Tennessee schedule is just about as good as it gets for tight ends come fantasy playoff time. The Giants and Jets (Weeks 14 and 15) are among the easiest matchups in the league for tight ends. Now his owners just have to hope he can return from his concussion in time to contribute to their team.

Zach Ertz
Seeing a decent playoff schedule makes Zach Ertz’s season all the more annoying. As much as it seems like he should be having a big season as a part of the Eagles offense, it just isn’t happening. The schedule looks nice, but Ertz still probably shouldn’t play in your playoff lineup (unless you’re really desperate).

Antonio Gates
The Chargers will be in a lot of potentially high- scoring games during the fantasy playoffs, and the defenses they face are all pretty bad at stopping tight ends. This is a recipe for success for Mr. Gates. His most difficult matchup on the surface is San Francisco in Week 16, but most of their stats against tight ends came before Patrick Willis was lost for the season.

The Bad

Preseason List

Jason Witten
After an awful start, Witten has become somewhat useful in recent weeks. His usefulness will continue into Week 14 with an amazing matchup with the Chicago Bears. After that, however, his schedule still looks as tough as it did in the preseason.

Martellus Bennett
When I labeled Martellus Bennett a guy with a bad postseason schedule back in August, I don’t think I even expected it to look this hard. Chicago’s Week 15 and 16 opponents, New Orleans and Detroit, are two of the toughest in the league against the tight end.

John Carlson/Troy Niklas/Robert Housler
David Ausberry/Mychal Rivera
I lumped all the Cardinals and Raiders potential tight ends together as a big group of guys with a tough schedule to worry about, should any of them emerge. Only one, Mychal Rivera of the Raiders, has come out of this group. His emergence hasn’t changed the fact that the Raiders still have a tough stretch of tight end opponents in the playoffs.

Looking Worse Now

Greg Olsen
In the preseason, I didn’t even consider Olsen. Now the Panthers might have the toughest stretch in the league for tight end. That’s the magic of the NFL: things can change so much in such a small amount of time. Olsen owners have no choice but to use him, but he might be in some trouble.

Heath Miller
Miller has only had a few decent weeks this season, and one of them might come in Week 14 against the Bengals. The rest of the way, however, is not looking so good for the Steelers tight end. Atlanta (Week 15) and Kansas City (Week 16) have been strong against the position this season.

Andrew Quarless/Richard Rodgers
Neither of these tight ends are being used in many fantasy leagues, but as members of the Packers, desperate owners might look their way. If you are one of those desperate owners, I’d suggest looking in a different direction. Green Bay’s fantasy playoff opponents are all good at stopping tight ends.

DEFENSE

The Good

Preseason List

Tennessee Titans
It may be tough to pull the trigger on using the Titans defense in the most important weeks of your season, but the matchups are a defensive streamer’s dream. In Week 14, Tennessee sees interception king Eli Manning. In Week 15, they get the Jets. Then to top it off, the Titans see the Jacksonville Jaguars during Week 16. It’s pretty much a best-case scenario, now it’s just a matter of the Titans stepping up to the plate.

Baltimore Ravens
Like the Titans, Baltimore’s playoff schedule includes the Jaguars (Week 15). Otherwise, though, it’s not as easy as it may have previously seemed. Miami in Week 14 is a game you’ll want to avoid, and the Texans in Week 16 aren’t the greatest matchup for fantasy defenses.

New England Patriots
The Jets in Week 16 are an ideal opponent for Patriots defense owners, but the rest of the playoffs aren’t as friendly as they may have seemed earlier in the year. San Diego in Week 14 and Miami in Week 15 are both matchups you may not exactly seek out for your fantasy defense.

Looking Better Now

New Orleans Saints
As shocking as it would have seemed in the preseason, the Saints’ Week 14 and 15 games with Carolina and Chicago are great matchups for fantasy defenses. New Orleans has been one of the worst fantasy defenses in the league this year, but the matchups are right. They wouldn’t be near the top of the list of teams I’d want to use, but they are usable if needed.

Green Bay Packers
Lost in the Packers rolling offense, is the defense has been stepping up as well. They will head into the playoffs with a few nice matchups lined up, most notably Tampa Bay in Week 16. If you added the Green Bay defense during their recent run, don’t let it go now.

Detroit Lions
Early investors in the Lions defense have run into a great situation heading toward the playoffs. Detroit has one of the best defenses in the NFL, and its fantasy playoff schedule is a collection of great matchups. Detroit can be kept in your lineup for all of Tampa Bay, Minnesota and Chicago.

The Bad

Preseason List

Seattle Seahawks, San Francisco 49ers & Cincinnati Bengals
In the preseason, all three of these defenses were popular picks for people looking for a “plug and play” type for their fantasy rosters. All three of them have turned into mediocre fantasy defenses that can be dropped when faced with a bad matchup. Just like in the preseason, their Week 14-16 opponents are all teams you want to avoid when choosing your fantasy defense.

Looking Worse Now

Indianapolis Colts & Kansas City Chiefs
These teams have each been popular pickups in various weeks throughout the season. Both of them are hanging near the top 12 in overall fantasy scoring. Kansas City gets the Raiders in Week 15, but other than that, these two teams are avoidable during the playoffs.

Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins have been the best fantasy defense in the league over the last four weeks, so people that have been riding them during that run will have a hard time giving them up. Those owners need to get used to the idea, however, because in Weeks 14 (Baltimore) and 15 (New England) they run into negative matchups you’ll want to avoid.

Suggestions, comments? E-mail or find me on Twitter.