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Jason Mitchell | Archive | Email |
Staff Writer


Risers & Fallers - Week 12
11/26/14

Quarterback

Rising

Ryan Tannehill, MIA
Before writing this section, I decided to head over to the Consistency Calculator tool here on FFToday. I was curious how Tannehill has fared in terms of consistency. He didn’t disappoint. I sorted the quarterback position by highest percentage of QB1 finishes in a 12-team league over the last eight weeks, and tied for eighth was Mr. Ryan Tannehill. Manning, Luck, Brees, Rodgers, Brady, Romo and Wilson are the only guys that have put up a higher percentage of QB1 performances over that time period. The fact that those are the only names ahead of Tannehill tell me that he might just be here to stay as a weekly starter for the rest of the season.

Drew Brees, NO
For as disappointing as Brees has seemed this season, he comes in tied for second in terms of consistently finishing as a QB1 over that same eight-week span. On Monday Night against a strong Ravens defense, Brees finally had a Brees-like performance, going for 420 yards and three scores. If this game was the wake up for the Saints offense, Brees owners could be in for a treat down the stretch.

Falling

Matthew Stafford, DET
The Lions last two opponents, Arizona and New England, both have very strong defenses. But are they so strong that a guy who still gets lumped into the QB1 conversation, Matthew Stafford, could possibly play both games without leading a single touchdown drive? It’s not just that he hasn’t thrown a touchdown in the last two games, the Lions haven’t scored any kind of touchdown. I mentioned in my Playoff Schedule Analysis Update that Stafford has a great playoff schedule, but his recent fantasy efforts are making it difficult for his owners to even make it that far.

Jay Cutler, CHI
Life with Jay Cutler is a roller coaster. In his last five games, he’s provided two big scores for his owners, but three sub-optimal scores in the other weeks. Most recently, he could only muster 130 yards and one touchdown against a Tampa Bay defense that has been dismal against the pass this season. If you’ve made it this far with Cutler it’ll be tough to replace him, but just be prepared for the roller coaster to continue.

Running Back

Rising

C.J. Anderson, DEN
I think it’s safe to say we have our Broncos starting running back for the remainder of the season. Anderson put up 167 yards on the ground against a Dolphins defense that has been decent against the run in 2014. Ronnie Hillman did great when he was filling in, but if he even returns, I can’t imagine Denver giving up on the good thing they have going with Anderson. If you were lucky enough to add C.J. Anderson, slot him into your starting lineup without a second thought.

Justin Forsett

Justin Forsett has four touchdowns in his last two games. Best waiver wire add of the year?


Justin Forsett, BAL
It’s beginning to look like Justin Forsett might be the best waiver wire add of the year. He made owners who picked him up early on happy through nine weeks, but in his last two games he has turned on the jets, probably carrying his fantasy owners to big victories. Prior to the Ravens bye, Forsett went off for 112 yards and two touchdowns. Coming out of the bye in Week 12, Forsett came up huge again, running for 182 yards and two scores against the Saints. Keep riding him while he’s hot.

Dan Herron, IND
Buried down the depth chart, Daniel Herron finally got his opportunity in Week 12 for the Colts. Trent Richardson was the presumed starter once Ahmad Bradshaw went down with an injury, but it was actually Herron who got the start and led the Colts backfield in touches in Week 12. He ran for 65 yards on 12 carries for a 5.4-yard average; pretty good compared to Trent Richardson’s 3.2-yard average. Herron also caught all five of his targets through the air. It remains to be seen if Herron can have the kind of productivity that Ahmad Bradshaw provided, but at the very least it seems that Herron can be a useful asset for those that need help at running back.

Falling

Mark Ingram, NO
It’s possible that Mark Ingram’s run as a top-flight fantasy running back might be winding down. He has been very disappointing for owners since his stretch of three straight 100-yard games. In Week 11 he only averaged 2.9 yards per carry en route to a 67-yard rushing day against the Bengals. In Week 12, Pierre Thomas returned and Mark Ingram saw his lowest carry total since October 19th, running the ball just 11 times for 27 yards against the Ravens. His value came from dominating the backfield touch in New Orleans, but with Pierre Thomas back and Khiry Robinson still potentially returning later, that backfield domination may be over.

Joique Bell, DET
Managing 85 yards on the ground against the Cardinals in Week 11 was promising, but Joique Bell has otherwise been a disappointment in recent weeks. He is barely involved in the passing attack, averaging around two receptions per game this season. Bell has only eclipsed 50 rushing yards three times, and he’s only found the end zone three times. He is a top 24 back in total numbers, but he’s not a top 24 back week-to-week. I’d look elsewhere to fill my running back slots if I could.

Chris Ivory, NYJ
Early in the season, Ivory wrestled the starting job in New York away from Chris Johnson, but that doesn’t mean much any more. He does have two 100-yard performances this season, which is great, but those seem long in the past. Ivory only has 104 total rushing yards in the past three games combined. He is splitting touches almost evenly with Chris Johnson now in an offense that is looking like a disaster. He had a nice run earlier, but it’s getting real tough to start Chris Ivory right now.

Wide Receiver

Rising

Anquan Boldin, SF
In an offense that has been rather questionable in recent weeks, Anquan Boldin has been a bright spot. In the last six games, Boldin has gone over 90 yards in four of them and caught at least five passes in all of them. Additionally, all four of his touchdowns this season have come over that stretch. This coincides with his targets rising from 7.2 per game over the first five weeks to 9.8 per game in Weeks 6-12. Anquan Boldin might be the only trustworthy member of the offense right now, the key word for fantasy owners being trustworthy. He’s safe to slot in lineups.

Odell Beckham Jr., NYG
The amazing catch on Sunday Night got the headlines, but what Odell Beckham Jr. has been doing since the Giants bye has long grabbed the attention of fantasy owners. Since the Giants bye in Week 8, here are Beckham’s per game averages: 11 targets (with no games under nine), 7.75 receptions (with no games under six), and 125.75 yards (with just one under 100). He’s the clear number one receiver on the Giants right now, and he’s a clear starter for fantasy owners.

Jarvis Landry, MIA
With the rise of Ryan Tannehill has come the rise of Jarvis Landry. The yardage totals aren’t there, as Landry hasn’t had more than 53 yards since Week 6, but the other numbers are. In the last four games, Landry has the following reception totals: five, seven, five, seven. He has at least five targets in all four of those games, and at least ten targets in two of them. Landy has scored four touchdowns in those games. He may be of more interest in formats with reception scoring due to the low yardage totals, but Landry is definitely a player to consider if you are struggling with the back end of your lineups in any format.

Falling

Jeremy Maclin, PHI
It seems like something just isn’t quite the same with Jeremy Maclin since Mark Sanchez took over. He is still getting the targets, but he’s not putting up the same numbers. In Week 10 he did have a big game, but that mostly came in garbage time. In two games where the Eagles were the victors with Sanchez at the helm, Maclin only has a total of nine receptions for 97 yards. The big change might be with yards per catch: In the seven games played in full by Nick Foles, Maclin averaged 16.2 yards per reception. In Sanchez’s three full games as starter, he’s averaged 10.5. Jeremy Maclin is still a weekly fantasy starter in that Eagles offense, but it looks like Sanchez has been a big downgrade for him.

Calvin Johnson, DET
When Megatron returned from injury against the Dolphins in Week 10, he put up a huge line of seven receptions, 113 yards and one touchdown. Surely Calvin Johnson was back, right? Maybe not. In the last two weeks, Johnson has only managed nine receptions for a total of 117 yards. Sure, the Lions faced some tough defenses and Johnson got matched up with a few strong defensive backs, but this was a guy drafted to be THE top wide receiver in fantasy. If you own him, you’re still starting him going forward no matter what, but he might not be in the same tier as the likes of Demaryius Thomas and Antonio Brown for the remainder of 2014.

Sammy Watkins, BUF
For a two-week stretch in late October, it looked like Sammy Watkins might be on his way to being the best rookie wide receiver in football, as he totaled 12 receptions for 279 yards and three touchdowns. Since that explosion, however, Watkins has only managed 10 catches for 94 yards and zero scores in three games. A groin injury is partially to blame, but he’s allegedly been back to full health for the last two games. He’s still a strong consideration for weekly lineups, but Watkins is not a must-start.

Tight End

Rising

Kyle Rudolph, MIN
After a long stretch of sitting out with an injury, Kyle Rudolph finally returned in Week 11, then secured no catches. Things picked up in Week 12 though, as he reeled in three receptions for 50 yards. Not a huge day, but the story here is that Rudolph is getting healthier as the weeks progress. In a league with so few must starts at tight end, Rudolph is worthy of your consideration on a weekly basis.

Tim Wright, NE
Tim Wright is more of a shoot for the moon type of play than a dependable starter, but he can be useful to owners desperate for tight end help all the same. In the last seven games, Wright has scored six touchdowns. The problem is touchdowns are the only source of value for him. In fact, in two games he has just one goaline catch for a touchdown. He’s a major risk for a zero, but if you’re willing to accept that risk, there’s a better than 50/50 chance that you’ll come away with a touchdown (and six points makes for a decent week at tight end).

Falling

Martellus Bennett, CHI
During the first four weeks, Bennett was looking like he might be the late round pick of the year at his position, as he caught 29 passes for 295 yards and four touchdowns. In the seven games since, Bennett only has 28 receptions for 333 yards and one touchdown. Long gone are the good old days of September when fantasy owners could confidently roll out Martellus Bennett. He can still probably start now due to the lack of depth at the position, but not with nearly the same level of confidence.

Larry Donnell, NYG
Something must be in the big city waters of Chicago and New York, because Larry Donnell’s decline from early season wonder started around the same time as Bennett’s. In those same first four weeks, Donnell had 25 receptions for 236 yards and four touchdowns. In his last seven: 21 catches for 225 yards and two touchdowns. The same comments for Bennett apply to Donnell: you probably still have to use him, but you won’t be as happy about it as you were in September.

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