All Out Blitz: Volume 38
10/27/11
Aggressiveness is a characteristic that tends to reward fantasy
owners more times than not. In the NFL, an offensive line will sometimes
hold up long enough to give the quarterback enough time to beat
man coverage down the field and make the defense look foolish against
a fierce pass rush. More often than not, though, when a defense
brings the heat and forces the action, crisis management becomes
the name of the game for the opposing team.
In that same vein, I hope to apply that same kind of pressure
to the owners in all of my leagues by beating my opponents to
the punch in regards to personnel moves. Sometimes, reaching a
conclusion about a player too quickly results in making a bad
situation worse. However, coming to a correct conclusion two weeks
or two minutes quicker than your opponents is considered foresight
and can often lead to fantasy championships.
Fantasy owners can be a uneasy lot, knowing that one two-or-three-game
losing streak can wreak irreparable damage to his/her team’s
chances to make a visit to the fantasy postseason. But just as
it is in the NFL and in life, it’s hard to land the big
prize by playing scared. Thus, I will strive each week to help
each of you become a smart blitzer, so to speak.
Quite frankly, I don’t recall one weekend that resulted
in so many game- and/or season-ending injuries to players that
were likely drawing starts in fantasy, whether they were every-week
starters or bye-week/injury replacements. Thus, it only seems
appropriate a phrase I often use in this column – “reshuffling
the deck” – should be the subject matter of the week.
Reshuffling the deck, at least in my opinion, is a nice, tidy
way to characterize the power shift that can occur when major
players in the fantasy game fall by the wayside, possibly destroying
what was once a dominant hand. In a highly competitive league,
the loss of one key fantasy player can expose all the other flaws
on your team while it can enhance another owner’s team if
he/she was carrying the talented backup to that player.
In the three seasons I have been writing this column, I have
devoted at least one article each year to an injury-filled week
that changes the landscape of fantasy football. Two years ago,
I wrote about a rash of injuries in a Blitz column titled “Black
Sunday”. Last year, it was “An
Ever-changing Landscape”.
Football is a violent game – injuries will happen. But
if last week’s “The
Winds of Change” wasn’t enough of a wake-up call,
it is time for owners to realize that important fantasy players
are falling at an alarming rate. The problem is that in the previous
two years – my injury columns were being written later into
the season. We are just now wrapping up the first half of the
fantasy regular season.
As someone who believes in “diversifying his portfolio”
when it comes to investing in players at draft time, I can assure
you that I have never needed to turn to my RB5 and RB6 at any
point during the season to be my starters for an upcoming week.
On this same money-league teams in Week 7, three of my nine starters
left the game early in the first half (Darren McFadden, Percy
Harvin and Damian Williams) and another one (Mark Ingram) did
not return after a fourth-quarter injury. In another league, all
four of my “start-able” RBs have all missed significant
game action or full games through seven weeks of the season. In
short, all five of my important fantasy teams have now experienced
significant injuries at multiple positions. But as I’m well
aware, just about every owner is going through the same thing.
With injuries the obvious theme of the week, let’s get
right to all the notable injuries and the fallout.
Darren
McFadden (mid-foot sprain) – It would seem that HC Hue Jackson
was just being overly cautious with his offensive centerpiece,
but the fact that “Run DMC” showed up to the practice facility
on Monday with a pair of crutches is not the greatest sign. The
Week 8 bye comes at a perfect time for him, but McFadden owners
that have been coasting without Michael
Bush now have been given a costly reminder on why Bush – who
is a fine stand-alone fantasy RB in his own right even when McFadden
is healthy – is such a valuable commodity. McFadden has yet to
play more than 13 games in an NFL season, so any injury has to
be a slight concern to his owners as he attempts to turn the trick
in his fourth season. Granted, most of his injuries as a pro have
been hamstring-related. McFadden owners who don’t have their league’s
trade deadline this week should feel free to wait this thing out
until we get an injury timetable to work with from the Raiders.
If your league’s trade deadline is this week and you did not handcuff
McFadden, it may a prudent move to see just what the Bush owner
wants in return. Foot injuries of any kind – especially for RBs
– can rob a player of his explosiveness. In the off-chance that
McFadden is forced to miss 1-2 weeks of game action, Bush becomes
the feature back in Oakland – and thus a fantasy RB1 candidate
– in his absence.
Matthew Stafford owners may want to make
some roster space for backup QB Shaun Hill.
Matthew
Stafford (ankle) – In a game in which it seemed almost certain
that the opposing QB (Matt Ryan) would miss multiple weeks with
a knee and ankle injury, it was instead Stafford who may be the
more injured of the two. Stafford is set to get a second opinion
on his ankle later in the week – since the MRI for his knee came
back negative – suggesting that Stafford owners aren’t out of
the woods quite yet. The prevailing opinion is that Stafford will
go against Denver in Week 8, but cautious owners may want to clear
a bit of space on their roster for Shaun
Hill just in case. Hill proved last season he is more than
serviceable as a fantasy QB in this offense and although Stafford’s
shoulder injuries in his first two seasons are a bit fluky considering
his durability as an amateur, Stafford has yet to play more than
10 games in a single season. Like Bush, Hill would instantly become
a top 10-15 fantasy option at his position should the player above
him on the depth chart be forced to miss multiple games.
Beanie
Wells (knee) – Why is it just about the time owners want to
fall in love with the Arizona RB, he remembers he is Beanie Wells?
In Week 3, it was a hamstring. Now, it’s either a bone bruise
(if you believe NFL Network’s Jason LaCanfora and his initial
report) or a badly swollen knee (if you believe Wells and the
team). Either way, given his injury history and the fact that
no one seems overly confident in producing a timetable, it’s probably
a safe assumption that he will miss at least one game, if not
two. It’s also probably safe to say that not many owners were
planning on getting much out of him in Week 8 vs. the Ravens,
but Week 9 is a juicy matchup vs. the Rams. For that reason alone
(the possibility of a RB facing St. Louis), Alfonso
Smith needs to be owned in all but the shallowest of leagues.
While he may not be a great talent, Smith has certainly done enough
with his limited opportunities to be considered flex material
when he has a chance at 15-20 touches. The Cardinals hinted they
would use a committee attack if Wells cannot go, but the team
has yet to allow LaRod
Stephens-Howling more than 10 offensive touches in a single
game in 2 ½ years in the league. Even after Wells was lost for
the game in Week 7, Chester
Taylor did not see any action and hasn’t even touched the
ball since Week 3, so Smith is be a good bet for 15-20 touches
in any game Wells is forced to miss from here on out.
Tim
Hightower (ACL) – What a wild and crazy ride it has been for
Hightower. And now it is over. Perhaps it shouldn’t come as a
shock that a Mike Shanahan RB gets hurt (it seemingly happens
every year), but also that Hightower’s season-ending injury actually
does very little to clear up the Redskins’ backfield. Being the
aggressive owner that I feel I am, I will be targeting Roy
Helu this week in my leagues (via trade, he really shouldn’t
be available on all that many waiver wires in any format), even
though we have been given no indication that Shanahan wants to
use him – or trusts him – in a full-time role. The fact of the
matter is that I feel another Ryan
Torain injury is an eventuality and not a probability, so
unless you are buying that FB Darrel Young or Tristan Davis –
who was recently promoted from the practice squad – will eat into
Helu’s workload at some point, then making a play for the Nebraska
alum is a low-cost move that could pay off. I’m well aware that
putting any faith in a Shanahan RB is a recipe for disaster, but
I feel the fact that he turned back to Hightower only strengthens
my long-standing argument that Shanahan will lean on one RB if
he feels that player is clearly his best RB. Going forward, however,
Helu is the fantasy RB to own, if only because he isn’t the injury
or passing-game liability that Torain is and because his speed
may be the only way Washington generates a consistent rushing
attack with so many injuries up front.
Willis
McGahee (fractured hand) – The Denver
Post suggested Monday McGahee isn’t likely for Week 9, which
means he is almost assuredly out for 1-2 weeks. On Wednesday,
the paper suggested it could be anywhere from a
couple of weeks to more than a month. In the meantime, owners
can dust off Knowshon
Moreno and reacquaint themselves with Lance Ball. An extended
layoff for McGahee obviously gives Moreno his best – and maybe
final – shot of convincing this coaching staff he deserves at
least a committee role with McGahee. Whether or not he will get
that shot or be forced into splitting carries with Ball is another
story, although it would seem Moreno will get most of the passing-down
work and Ball will be tasked with short-yardage. The problem for
Moreno is that Tim Tebow hasn’t exactly leaned on his RBs in the
passing game over his four career starts. As for Ball, Tebow may
take even more of the short-yardage work he was projected to get
when McGahee was still healthy, so Ball’s fantasy appeal may be
limited as well.
Santana
Moss (fractured hand) – For one of the few true undervalued
players in fantasy each year, Moss goes from steady WR2 or very
good WR3 in PPR leagues to expendable in shallow leagues. Moss
is reportedly being given a 5-7 week timetable, which basically
rules him out until the start of the fantasy playoffs in most
leagues. Most fantasy teams don’t have enough room on their bench
to hold a player that long, but think hard about releasing him
before you do. Ideally, your league has 1-2 IR slots, but if yours
doesn’t, he’s not such a difference-maker that he worth holding
onto that long. As much as it pains me to say that Michael
Jenkins and Darrius
Heyward-Bey are emerging as a WR3 candidates, I’m of the mind
that both have done enough lately to qualify as possible replacements
for Moss. Jabar
Gaffney now becomes the top receiver in Washington, although
Fred Davis is the overwhelming favorite to be the No. 1 option
in the passing game going forward. Still, I would not be afraid
to use Gaffney as a WR3 in PPR, so his emergence could allow an
owner that is WR-heavy to trade one of his three current starters
to address a weakness somewhere else.
Mark
Ingram (bruised heel) – Congrats if you had the rookie in
your league’s pool of which Saints’ RB would get injured first.
With the smallish Darren
Sproles and injury-prone Pierre
Thomas, it seemed Ingram would be the last of the three to
succumb to injury. The play which caused Ingram’s injury looked
innocent enough, but cameras that followed him up the tunnel into
the locker room showed him walking with a pronounced limp. I’d
rather not speculate as to what that means – we should have a
good idea by Thursday or Friday if he is a go for St. Louis in
Week 8 – but in the event the rookie has to sit a game, Pierre
Thomas gets a significant spike in fantasy value. However, it
is just as possible that 2010 fantasy darling Chris
Ivory makes a cameo this week and ends up making everyone
except Sproles in this backfield nearly impossible to predict.
Without trying to beat a dead horse, I cannot understand why the
Saints invested so much in Ingram in order to use him as a glorified
version of Ivory, but I digress.
Earnest
Graham (torn Achilles’) – Graham isn’t exactly among the fantasy
elite, but his loss is a dramatic one for the Bucs. Not only was
he filling in as the starter for LeGarrette Blount, but his contributions
as Blount’s pass-catching complement made him flex-worthy in medium-to-deep-sized
PPR leagues. What this means is that deeper-league owners need
to familiarize themselves with Kregg
Lumpkin. Assuming the only addition the Bucs make at RB during
the bye week is a practice squader like Mossis Madu, Lumpkin should
essentially become the new Graham will slightly less appeal as
a runner. In other words, he is a flex-worthy PPR player in the
event Blount cannot return in time for Week 9, but his true value
will be as a receiver out of the backfield in games which Tampa
Bay must ditch its conservative offense and throw the ball in
an effort to come from behind. That kind of thing is very hard
to predict, so there isn’t a much to get excited over here. However,
the Bucs have been singing Lumpkin’s praises off-and-on almost
since the time he joined the team last year, so if Blount struggles
to stay healthy once he returns, Lumpkin should have a clear path
to feature-back status.
Marshawn
Lynch (back) – Talk about disappointing. The likely reason
most owners probably drafted Lynch was with the idea that he would
be a serviceable bye-week replacement. The problem was that most
of the country did not know he was a last-minute scratch until
10-15 minutes after the 1 pm games kicked off in Week 7. HC Pete
Carroll stated that his back “issue” is something that has been
“ongoing since he arrived with us (in the 2010 trade with Buffalo)
but today it came up right before game time…his back spasmed up
on him and he couldn’t get loose”. On Monday, Carroll said he
was unsure if Lynch would go this week vs. the Bengals. With or
without Lynch, there isn’t a great deal of value coming out of
the Seattle backfield these days, but the Seattle
Times has gone on record suggesting Leon
Washington is the preferred option in one-back sets when Lynch
is out. Back issues are almost always unpredictable and the fact
his back has been an issue for more than a year makes it likely
that Lynch isn’t done missing games. Justin
Forsett’s YPC is down almost two full yards from last season
while Washington is inching closer to the explosive player he
was before his horrifying leg injury with the Jets in 2009. More
than likely, Forsett and Washington would split carries if Lynch
was forced to miss multiple games, but desperate owners – especially
those in deep PPR leagues – would be wise to find a spot on the
back end of their bench for Washington.
Joseph
Addai (hamstring) – The “Year of the Hamstring Injury” continued
its cruel path of destruction this week. Addai owners who were
pleased to get him back a couple of weeks earlier than expected
got a total of four touches from him before he left for good in
the first quarter vs. the Saints. Addai later stated he thought
he would have been ready by Tuesday, but that he wasn’t quite
ready on Sunday night. Delone
Carter performed well in Addai’s absence, one week after Donald
Brown outperformed Carter. Addai’s hamstring doesn’t appear
to be a long-term issue, although injuries of any kind have long
been a concern for Addai and his owners. Going forward, I would
be hard-pressed to put faith in any Colts’ RB in all but the deepest
of leagues. When everyone is healthy, Addai should get the most
touches, but Carter appears to be the favored option in short-yardage
situations. Rarely would I advise writing off an entire backfield,
but I don’t see many opponents going forward that Indianapolis
will push around in the running game.
Because there are other topics to discuss (and ones you’d
rather read about in all likelihood), I’ll make a mention
of the other injuries that robbed owners of needed points and/or
wins last weekend. The reason most of these names will appear
here is because they are not serious injuries or expected to have
a pronounced effect on owners:
Matt
Ryan (ankle, knee) – His injury looked scary, but he returned
quickly and has the bye week to recover.
Ryan
Mathews (thumb) – The impressive second-year runner got his
thumb bent back when he got it caught in the facemask of a Jets’
defender. He is expected to go Week 8. Mike Tolbert (hamstring)
could be seen grabbing the back of his leg during the game as
well, but is also expected to play vs. the Chiefs.
Percy Harvin (rib) – Harvin missed the entire second half
after aggravating the same rib injury that has bothered him most
of the season. With a Week 9 bye looming and the Vikings already
looking ahead to 2012, Harvin is a good bet to miss this week.
Shonn Greene (ankle) – Talk about a scary non-injury. Greene
fell down without contact near the goal line and grabbed his leg
as if he was in excruciating pain. However, he missed just two
snaps and will have the bye week to rest.
Ben
Watson and Mohamed
Massaquoi (concussions) – By now, we know the drill with concussions.
Both players must pass their baseline tests this week in order
to have a chance to play in Week 8. Evan Moore and Greg Little
should each receive a small boost in targets if either player
or both players are forced to miss time.
Damian Williams (concussion) – Read Watson and Massaquoi
above. HC Mike Munchak expects him to go Week 8. If he does, he
has a solid matchup against the Colts.
Hines Ward (ankle) – It sure seems as if the Steelers are
trying to be classy about easing Ward out of the offense. He’s
a good bet to post another solid fantasy line or two this season,
but his days as a useful every-week starter in fantasy came to
an end about this time last season.
Kevin Boss (concussion) – Read Watson, Massaquoi and Damian
Williams above. Boss will have the bye week to pass his baseline
tests and should be expected to go in Week 9.
Ovie
Mughelli (knee) – The accomplished FB went on IR with a serious
knee injury, which dims Michael Turner’s outlook going forward.
After the Falcons visit Indy in Week 9, they face a stretch of
tough run defenses, high-scoring offenses (or both) the rest of
the way, which may force Atlanta’s hand to shift back to the passing
team it tried to be early in the season, just as it was returning
to its run-heavy ways.
Just in case you didn’t believe me last week about the rash
of injuries sweeping the fantasy landscape, now you have a better
idea. In the FF Today forums last week, I suggested that it wouldn’t
be long before fantasy owners would need to familiarize themselves
with the likes of Alfonso
Smith, Dion
Lewis, Danny
Ware, C.J.
Spiller, Chris
Ogbonnaya, Jacquizz
Rodgers or Jason
Snelling. I could have easily added Lumpkin, Washington, Ivory,
Ball, Jacob
Hester, Curtis Brinkley, Taiwan
Jones and Joe
McKnight to that list as well. I really hope it doesn’t come
to this, but for the first time in my fantasy career, there is
a chance many fantasy titles this year could actually be decided
by which NFL team’s third-string RB outperformed another team’s
third-string RB in the championship game. In the leagues where
I have the space, I will now entertain the possibility of adding
a talented third-string RB to my bench if I already own the first
two RBs on that team. Perhaps this is an example of paranoia at
its worst, but if injuries are going to strike at the rate they
have been so far, I’d rather be safe than sorry.
Next Week’s Waiver Wire Stars
Each week, I’ll select one player at QB, RB, WR and TE
that is available in at least three of my five leagues and make
a case as to why they could be important to you the following
week or beyond. For those of you who have been loyal readers for
some time, you already know I am not concerned with making safe
picks; selective and smart aggressiveness is often the name of
the game in fantasy.
I cannot emphasize enough these players are not necessarily recommended
additions to your fantasy team – I will make sure to make
that obvious if that is the case – but have a chance, however
small, to make an impact, even if it is only as a potentially
valuable reserve down the line.
QB: Christian
Ponder, Minnesota. It was quite telling to me that conservative
OC Bill Musgrave opened up Week 7 with a deep shot for his rookie
QB, resulting in a 72-yard completion to Michael Jenkins. (Talk
about two wrongs making a right.) Whether this was Musgrave’s
realization that he needed to open things up a bit or simply a
lack of trust in Donovan McNabb to execute a similar play, it
did appear Ponder has inspired enough confidence for the Vikings
to be a bit more exciting on offense. With Jenkins showing a hint
of playmaking ability and Visanthe Shiancoe delivering three solid
games in his last four tries, Ponder could tread water as a low-end
QB2 in 12-team leagues. However, his upside will continue to be
capped as long as Percy Harvin is not the featured receiver in
this offense. Therefore, expect a lot of 170-220 yard passing
days for the rookie. As evidenced by his 31 yards rushing, Ponder
can run a little bit, which he will need to do frequently with
Minnesota’s porous offensive line. I don’t expect Week 7 to be
the rookie’s high-water mark this year, but it will probably go
down as one of his better fantasy performances. Don’t expect great
things from him, but I think Ponder can be a better fantasy QB
than someone like Andy Dalton for the remainder of the season.
Previous recommendations:
Matt
Cassel, Week 3; Vince
Young, Week 4; Tim
Tebow, Week 5; John
Beck, Week 6
RB: Phillip
Tanner, Dallas. In case you didn’t get to see any part of
the DeMarco Murray’s coming-out party against the Rams, Tanner
was the “other guy” that took over after the rookie from Oklahoma
had broken the team’s single-game rushing record. Tanner is an
undrafted rookie RB from Middle Tennessee State that has strikes
me as the kind of runner who should serve as the more physical
complement to Felix Jones and Murray. Despite playing Tashard
Choice sporadically throughout the season, it sure appears to
me both player and team are just going through the motions as
he isn’t running well and getting injured a lot. So, in making
this bold call with Tanner, I am assuming Choice will head to
the bottom of the depth chart when he is fully healthy and watch
as Tanner eventually morphs into the team’s short-yardage option.
Tanner is not the second coming of a young Marion Barber, but
neither Jones nor Murray have shown any kind of durability, so
Tanner has an outside shot at fantasy relevance at some point
this season.
Previous recommendations:
Alfonso
Smith, Week 3; Keiland
Williams Week 4; Jackie
Battle/Jacquizz
Rodgers, Week 5; Joe
McKnight, Week 6
WR: Roy
Williams, Chicago. Typically, I avoid choosing players for
this part of the Blitz that are on a bye, but I’ll make an exception
here. I don’t know what sickens me more, feeling like I have to
recommend Williams or having watched him “work” himself into game
shape over the first half of the season. With the Bears coming
to their senses in recent weeks and running the ball with great
effectiveness, they have largely abandoned the wide-open passing
attack that OC Mike Martz has been known for throughout his career.
This has resulted in more two-WR formations and means that Williams
and Devin Hester have less competition for the receiving yardage
that Matt Forte isn’t getting. And since the TE (Kellen Davis)
is not a big part of any Martz offense, he is not a realistic
threat. I’m still not sure I want Williams as anything more than
an end-of-bench fantasy WR since his targets are still low, but
we all know Martz is infatuated with him, so it will take something
pretty major to knock him out of the lineup.
Previous recommendations:
Michael
Jenkins/Dane
Sanzenbacher, Week 3; Mark
Clayton, Week 4, Naaman
Roosevelt, Week 5; Arrelious
Benn, Week 6
TE: Visanthe
Shiancoe, Minnesota / Jeremy
Shockey, Carolina. Outside of Week 5’s one-catch, 20-yard
showing in Minnesota’s blowout win over Arizona, Shiancoe hasn’t
embarrassed himself or his fantasy owners in terms of production.
The recent promotion of Ponder makes him a bit more intriguing,
albeit as a mid-level TE2 as opposed to a low-end TE2, but his
recent target numbers should pique the interest of deeper-league
owners. Once you get past the elite ones, a TE that routinely
sees 6-8 targets/game (as he has over the four straight games)
will be at least moderately productive in fantasy. And as the
cliché goes – a tight end is a young quarterback’s best friend.
The upside here is limited, but the chances that he will be consistent
going forward are getting better by the week.
If recommending Williams sickened me, then singing Shockey’s
praises has me on the verge of passing out. OK, so that is a bit
extreme, but fantasy football has a way of making for strange
bedfellows. Shockey has been borderline usable all season long,
but he stands a great chance of seeing his value rise if Week
7 was any indication of what Greg Olsen’s production will be like
going forward as he battles a turf toe injury. Foot injuries of
any kind are bad news for just about any player and we’ve seen
many instances over the years where turf toe has derailed a promising
season. OC Rob Chudzinski’s offenses are very tight end-friendly,
so Shockey is at least worth a stash and maybe a start in PPR
leagues this week for desperate owners who need a quick fix at
TE.
Previous recommendations:
Ben Watson, Week 3; Jake Ballard, Week 4; Joel Dreessen, Week
5; Lance Kendricks, Week 6
Suggestions, comments, musings about the article
or fantasy football in general? E-mail
me.
Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006, appeared
in USA Today’s Fantasy Football Preview magazine in each
of the last two seasons and served as a weekly fantasy football
analyst for 106.7 The Fan in Washington, D.C. this past season.
He is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.
You can also follow him
on Twitter.
|