In that same vein, I hope to apply that same kind of pressure to the owners in all of my leagues by beating my opponents to the punch in regards to personnel moves. Sometimes, reaching a conclusion about a player too quickly results in making a bad situation worse. However, coming to a correct conclusion two weeks or two minutes quicker than your opponents is considered foresight and can often lead to fantasy championships.

Fantasy owners can be a uneasy lot, knowing that one two-or-three-game losing streak can wreak irreparable damage to his/her team’s chances to make a visit to the fantasy postseason. But just as it is in the NFL and in life, it’s hard to land the big prize by playing scared. Thus, I will strive each week to help each of you become a smart blitzer, so to speak.

Fantasy owners are no strangers to surprises – some are good, most are bad. While the good ones are almost always welcome – a surplus of elite options at one position for example – the bad ones rarely ever come at a great time. But if there was ever a bad time for a key fantasy player to suffer a multi-week injury or suspension, it might be Week 13. For some owners, an early-game injury in that week ends the playoff dreams of a team that overcame adversity all season long just to have it go down in flames in the final game of the regular season. For others, a player suspension on the cusp of the playoffs leaves precious little time for his owners to find a viable alternative. In just about every league, the trade deadline has come and gone, meaning the waiver wire and your bench are the only options you have to fill the void.

Forte's injury comes at the worst time for his owners.

It’s should be obvious by now I am referring to Matt Forte and Fred Davis. In one week, fantasy football lost two players – likely for the remainder of the season – that were top 10 options at their positions. Given the recent drafting track records of Chicago and Washington, it’s not as if either team has a talented Ben Tate-like backup who has just been waiting for the chance to prove himself. While Forte regularly accounted for nearly half of the Bears’ offense in reality, his impact will merely make a lot of other borderline options in the Bears’ offense like Earl Bennett and Johnny Knox that much tougher to love since defenses won’t have to respect the run as much. In the case of the Redskins, Davis’ absence could make Santana Moss and Jabar Gaffney highly unpredictable going forward. On one hand, with Roy Helu emerging as a threat in the backfield, the two wideouts could be in line for 2-3 more targets per game and put up WR2 numbers in PPR leagues in the right matchup (like this week). On the other hand, the duo could be almost unusable in any game in which HC Mike Shanahan simply decides to go run-heavy in an effort to avoid putting too much on Rex Grossman’s plate. However, a quick look at Washington’s remaining games (Patriots, Giants and Vikings) suggests both receivers could be in for a strong finish as Washington will likely be trailing in at least two of those games and the Vikings’ secondary is so weak right now that opponents would be foolish to not attack it.

While Forte’s current timetable is 2-6 weeks, the low end of that projection is probably too optimistic and the high end is too late for the Bears and the thousands of his fantasy owners who had hoped they could ride one of the most durable RBs in the league to a fantasy title. Just as the case was in Week 1 with Jamaal Charles, there is very little an owner can do in this situation to overcome such a loss. Thankfully, Chicago has a capable reserve in Marion Barber, but I cannot picture him turning back the clock to the days where he warranted a first-round pick in fantasy leagues, even for a 2-4 week period and certainly not without Jay Cutler under center. Whereas Forte was a surefire RB1, Barber strikes me as a high-end flex play.

As for Davis, what can be said about a player who knows the league’s rules regarding illegal drugs and breaks them anyway? Certainly, shallow-league owners should be able to find a halfway capable reserve from my 22-man list below, but medium- and deeper-league owners don’t have a lot of appealing free-agent options at the position at this point of the season, and especially this week. (And no, new starter Logan Paulsen isn’t a fantasy option.) Jacob Tamme faces Baltimore and a pending Dallas Clark return while Scott Chandler (who is catching an amazing 85% of his targets and has seen a recent increase in fantasy value) may be sidelined this week. On the matchup side of things, the two friendliest defenses vs. opposing TEs (Chicago and Green Bay) have matchups against Denver and Oakland, respectively. As we know by now, neither Daniel Fells nor Kevin Boss inspires a great deal of confidence. In my “Waiver Wire Stars” at the bottom of the page, I may have an option for you, but a lot of Davis owners may need to say a little prayer this week if they don’t have another fair-to-decent option behind him already on the roster.

As much as I believe skill and perseverance gets fantasy owners through the regular season, I’ve long believed that owners need a little bit of good fortune to smile on them in the playoffs. For some, that means their team simply stays healthy for three straight weeks. For others, it means playing against an opponent that has Beanie Wells facing the Niners’ defense or Cedric Benson against the Texans the week you play them. At this point, there’s very little advice that I can provide other than to take in all the injury information possible about your players and their opponents this week. (For instance, how much better is Wells’ matchup with San Francisco if Patrick Willis is forced to miss the game?) Beyond that, observe the workload and target trends in the charts below and make some educated guesses. (Is Reggie Wayne really all that much better of a play than Brad Smith or Golden Tate? Dare I trust Miles Austin right away after such a long layoff?)

Make no mistake about it, this season was a challenge for even the most savvy fantasy owners, but it’s not quite over quite yet. As much as I fell below my usual standards in terms of winning divisions and/or clinching playoff berths, I feel fortunate that I actually had multiple teams make the postseason when each team was hit pretty hard by injuries. The good news for my main teams, along with many other owners, is that the number of injuries has slowed to a crawl after a plethora of nagging injuries to key players struck players during the first half of the season. So instead of debating the merits of starting Chris Ogbonnaya vs. Kevin Faulk this week or next as a RB2, we can focus on the same question we face every year around this time: who do I play in my flex? It seems like such a small distinction to make, but one player producing – or falling on his face – in the fantasy playoffs is usually the difference between winning and losing that week. Moving on…

The cutoff at each position below is five touches/targets per game. To help provide some perspective, the average fantasy points/touch for the 64 RBs that qualify for my list above is 0.76. For the 63 WRs who qualified, the overall average for fantasy points/target is 0.59 and among the 22 that made the list at TE, it is 0.63. Feel free to use that number as a barometer to help you evaluate who is making the grade and who is not.

Note: For the players whose names and touches/targets are bolded and italicized, it reflects the touches/targets each player had with their former team before they were traded/released by that team.

We may be living in the age of decreasing workloads for RBs, but it is usually around this time of year that we get to see who the coaches really trust in the backfield. Now while I knew Marshawn Lynch was on a nice little scoring streak, I’ll be the first to admit that I didn’t truly appreciate how dominant he has been until this past week. And given the way he ran over Philadelphia, it probably comes as little surprise – especially to his owners – that he has been carrying the heaviest workload in the NFL over the last five weeks (27.4 touches/game). It’s a pretty amazing fact that his low game in PPR over that stretch has been 16.9 fantasy points and all of this is even more impressive considering he has been without the entire right side of his line (rookies RG John Moffitt, RT James Carpenter) for three weeks already. Against the Eagles, it seemed like every notable run went to the right side behind replacements Paul McQuistan and Bruno Ciacomini. That may have to continue since LT Russell Okung joined Moffitt and Carpenter on IR this week, although a home game against the Rams may help matters a bit. While it is notable that Lynch’s low fantasy game over the last five came against St. Louis, it’s getting harder to believe that he won’t get another 25-30 touches to do a little better this time around.

Does anyone else get the feeling that Ravens OC Cam Cameron is going to use one of these upcoming weeks to “work on the passing game”? Cameron graduated from the Norv Turner school of using the run to set up the vertical passing game and Rice’s recent history suggests the OC simply can’t be happy just running the ball. While Rice generally remains quite active in the passing game, it is almost as if Cameron can’t help himself to be anything but aggressive. Rice, much like LeSean McCoy, hasn’t put together more than three consecutive 20-touch games all season long. While that may seem a bit of an anomaly, Rice has three consecutive 20-touch games and Cameron could choose this week against the Colts to show off Joe Flacco’s arm again. Coming off a season-high 31 touches, Rice’s fantasy potential this week is huge if you consider the matchup, but could disappoint if Cameron gets too pass happy again. Rice also has yet to post consecutive 100-yard games this season, so with an early two- or three- score lead likely and Ricky Williams running the ball well, Baltimore could opt to make this one of those head-scratcher games for Rice owners. Obviously, I’m not advising that anyone sit Rice; all I’m suggesting is that even though a 150-yard, three-score effort is a possibility, it wouldn’t be terribly shocking if he disappoints slightly this week. When one considers that New England essentially rested BenJarvus Green-Ellis – albeit a much different back in a much different offense – against Indy, the Ravens could opt to do the same thing this week.

Was last week the game when Mark Ingram became the true lead back in New Orleans? If you believe the reports coming out of New Orleans, that talk will have to wait a week, if not more, after he was held out of practice with turf toe on Wednesday. There has been nothing yet to suggest this is a serious case, but any turf toe for a RB is not good for his playing status that week and perhaps beyond. I did find it quite interesting the Saints opted to give their prize rookie one of his heaviest workloads of the season last week against a Lions defense that has allowed the fifth-most catches to RBs this season. Pierre Thomas saw a season-low four touches – half his previous low – while Darren Sproles’ role remained virtually the same. It’s also notable that HC Sean Payton told the Sunday Night Football crew prior to the game that “the only thing keeping Ingram from being Rookie of the Year is me”. After two encouraging weeks, Ingram’s owners may need to shelve their enthusiasm until next season when Payton hopefully drops the three-headed attack.

I had to do a double take early this week as I was compiling the target numbers for the receivers. Certainly, seeing Wes Welker and Calvin Johnson high on the list was no surprise, but Roddy White has seemingly come out of nowhere to tie Welker for the league lead in targets. Obviously, 14 targets/game over the last three weeks has helped him get to that point, but if ever there was a downside in looking strictly at target numbers, it is that opportunity doesn’t necessarily equal success as much as it usually leads to success. White and Brandon Lloyd are great examples of this phenomenon. (This is one of several reasons why I decided to make catch rate a weekly feature for receivers and tight ends.) White’s last three weeks serve as a pretty good indication that he is sufficiently healed from the preseason thigh bruise that hindered him for most of the first half of the season. But it bears mentioning that despite the recent increase in targets, White’s catch rate has dipped slightly in that time and his current rate (54%) is a full 10% less than last year when it appeared Tony Gonzalez was losing a step and Michael Jenkins was the starting WR opposite White. White’s job – after mostly squaring off against Houston’s Johnathan Joseph last week – doesn’t get much easier this week against Carolina’s Chris Gamble, meaning it could be another good week for Gonzalez, Jones and maybe even Harry Douglas.

Here’s a bit of trivia for you: name the top three WRs in PPR since Week 8. No one would blame you if two of your three answers were Welker and Calvin Johnson, but you’d be wrong. In terms of total points, the right answers are Victor Cruz, Percy Harvin and Laurent Robinson. In terms of average, the answers are Harvin, Cruz and Jordy Nelson. As much as I could use this time to vent over Vikings’ OC Bill Musgrave and his inability to see how much Harvin could help this offense when Minnesota still had something to play for, I’ll instead use this time to remind each of you that after kickers and defenses, receivers could very well be the most difficult position to predict in fantasy. And the funny thing is that most diehard football viewers knew each of these four aforementioned players had this kind of production in them a year or more before their coaches allowed it to happen. With Cruz, I instantly flash back to the 2010 preseason game where he scored three times. With Harvin, I recall any number of different games, but particularly a MNF game vs. New England last season where he was nearly unstoppable. Robinson has always been long on talent and short on durability, which is the main reason why two teams (Atlanta, St. Louis) basically cut bait on him. As for Nelson, most of us wondered why the Packers would spend a second-round pick on a receiver back in 2008 only to have him go to waste behind Donald Driver. It wasn’t until late last season where he was given much of a chance to even prove his worth.

Following a long midseason nap, Pierre Garcon reintroduced himself to fantasy owners in Week 13. His 36-point effort in PPR was a career high, but he’s going to be a tough start from here on out with matchups against Baltimore, Tennessee and Houston on the horizon. There’s a small chance I’d play him as a WR3 in Weeks 14 and Week 15, but he’s been so hit-or-miss for the majority of his career up to this point and not exactly someone I view as anything more than a matchup play. Despite his six TDs this season, he has only scored in three games, all of which were good matchups for him against teams with average safety play at best – and that’s being kind in a couple of cases. Further consider his QB for the rest of this season and it’s just not worth the risk.

Since I mentioned a player that just burned the Patriots in the passing game, let’s talk a bit about New England’s next matchup. It’s getting harder and harder to ignore just how good of a play both receivers on the same team – and in some cases, the top three – are against a Patriots secondary that must be driving Bill Belichick crazy. I mention this for those owners considering Santana Moss and Jabar Gaffney this week. In light of the Fred Davis suspension, Rex Grossman will be the next man up to face the soft New England secondary in the latest edition of the movable object vs. the resistible force. It would take more intestinal fortitude than I have to start Grossman in the fantasy postseason, but I see no reason why Moss and Gaffney shouldn’t be starting in just about every scoring format this week. In PPR, the Pats are allowing over 44 fantasy points to opposing WRs, which is the highest average any defense has yielded to the position going as far back as I can (the 2000 season) using this site’s custom scoring option (LINK). For those of you that remember how bad the Cowboys’ secondary was last season, well, New England’s two points/game worse than that.

One indication of how this season was going to unfold for me was during the fifth round of my final online money-league draft. As time was running out on me to make a selection, I settled on Jimmy Graham over Mario Manningham (and others) with my pick and clicked on his name to make my selection. As luck would have it, I was awarded Manningham about 10 seconds later. I thought I rebounded nicely with Owen Daniels in the next round, but the stage was already set for disappointment. I use this short story as a lead-in to discuss Graham, who is primed to become the next great TE in the mold of Tony Gonzalez and Antonio Gates. Obviously, Rob Gronkowski deserves a mention in that category as well, but Graham’s upside is higher and his quarterback is younger. Much like Gates was when he entered the league, Graham is a very raw player in terms of actual football experience, but his freakish athleticism makes him a matchup nightmare for man or zone defenses. And just like Gronkowski, Graham is such a size mismatch for opponents that it does little good to double team him. Not since 2008 when Gonzalez piled up 155 targets with the Chiefs have we seen another TE on pace for 150 targets.

But it gets better: with four games remaining, Graham is already 21st on the all-time list for receiving yards in a single season by a TE. On his current 87.2 yards/game pace – which would be the best average ever for a TE – Graham will break Kellen Winslow’s all-time record of 1,290 receiving yards by a TE (set back in 1980) sometime near the end of Week 16’s matchup against the Falcons. Gonzalez’s tight-end record of 102 catches is also within reach. I’d say all this is pretty good for a third-round pick two years ago whose most notable strength coming out of Miami (FL) was as a shot blocker on the basketball court.

Over the course of a few hours last Sunday, most of Fred Davis’ owners experienced the kind of rollercoaster emotions no owner wants to endure right before the fantasy playoffs. For many of those owners, the day probably started off just the same as the previous 10-12 weeks, hopeful that a talented TE would get his looks against a Jets’ defense that was likely to shut down the Redskins’ receivers. While he certainly did not disappoint on the field, it was the news that actually came out before the game (which many people did not find out until later in the day) that crushed his fantasy owners – namely that he had failed yet another drug test. SI.com later reported the drug was marijuana. The subsequent four-game suspension for being a repeat offender had to serve as a kick in the pants to his owners on the doorstep of the fantasy playoffs. For his dynasty league owners, they have to hope Davis finally learns from this latest suspension because his next “mistake” will result in a year-long absence. Therefore, as owners look forward to next season, that possibility needs to weigh on the mind of every owner that considers drafting him from now until the end of his career.

Next Week’s Waiver Wire Stars

Each week, I’ll select one player at QB, RB, WR and TE that is available in at least three of my five leagues and make a case as to why they could be important to you the following week or beyond. For those of you who have been loyal readers for some time, you already know I am not concerned with making safe picks; selective and smart aggressiveness is often the name of the game in fantasy.

With the fantasy playoffs upon us, the future is now. Therefore, each of the recommendations I make from now until Week 16 will be on players that should help immediately with the remaining schedule in mind.

QB: T.J. Yates, Houston. Two Texan QB recommendations in three weeks? Well, here’s my defense: this week, he faces a Cincinnati secondary that lost Leon Hall for the season and may be without Nate Clements again. Next week, it’s Carolina’s defense and, in Week 16, it’s Indianapolis. Now, while I understand the running game should steal the show in each game and the team will likely sit Andre Johnson at least one week, I tend to believe Houston is comfortable enough with the rookie that it will allow him to operate in the same fashion Matt Schaub did. Yates certainly did nothing last week to suggest he couldn’t handle the Texans’ upcoming schedule. Keeping the next three opponents in mind, Yates could easily have a 200-yard, two-score game once, if not twice. That production from the QB position gets it done in fantasy more often than not.

Previous recommendations: Matt Cassel, Week 3; Vince Young, Week 4; Tim Tebow, Week 5; John Beck, Week 6; Christian Ponder, Week 7; Colt McCoy, Week 9; Alex Smith, Week 10; Matt Leinart, Week 11; Matt Moore, Week 12

RB: Brandon Saine, Green Bay. The best waiver-wire options in most of my leagues are Saine and Chris Ivory, both of which are highly speculative plays at best given their status on the depth chart. However, both players have a shot at playing time this week (and perhaps beyond) if injuries to James Starks and Mark Ingram end up costing one or both a game or two. For my money, the best bet is Saine, who has the best hands on the team according to Aaron Rodgers. Ryan Grant has yet to show any explosion and is playing out the last year of his contract, which leaves Saine and John Kuhn as the most likely standout RBs for the Packers this weekend vs. Oakland. Please understand that any Green Bay RB is a desperation play at best this week, but it’s not unthinkable that Saine could run for 30-40 yards and catch 3-4 passes, taking one of those 8-10 touches in the end zone.

Previous recommendations: Alfonso Smith, Week 3; Keiland Williams Week 4; Jackie Battle/Jacquizz Rodgers, Week 5; Joe McKnight, Week 6; Phillip Tanner, Week 7; Tashard Choice, Week 9; Kevin Smith, Week 10; Johnny White, Week 11; Shane Vereen, Week 12

WR: Brad Smith, Buffalo. In my opinion, there are three likely waiver-wire receivers this week that warrant a mention, two of which have legitimate WR3 value already this week. Golden Tate, according to HC Pete Carroll, finally carried over his practice exploits to the playing field and will be “heavily involved” from now on. He’s worth an add, but I’d have a very hard trusting any Seahawks receiver – even against the Rams. The second player is Malcom Floyd, who has posted 100 yards in three of the last four games in which he has played. With Floyd, his owners are always counting the number of plays until he suffers his next injury, but his matchup is a decent one this week and his starting job is not in question. My final recommendation, however, is my strongest one. For years, I have felt Smith was heavily underutilized. I’m sure much like Bills’ fans, I figured when Smith was handed nearly $4 M/year to leave the Jets, he would see a lot of playing time in a sort of “Slash” hybrid role that would make somewhat useful in fantasy. Instead, much like fellow gadget player Percy Harvin, Smith’s role was much more limited than we could have imagined as he was limited to the occasional “Wildcat” snap and little else. However, with Buffalo’s skill-position players dropping like flies late in the season, Smith has been forced into action at Donald Jones’ old starting spot and produced in both of his starts. I’m shocked HC Chan Gailey has yet to use him much as a passer on gadget plays, but right now, his receiving totals are more than serviceable by themselves. With Fred Jackson already out for the season, the Bills can be expected to remain a high-volume passing team, so I suspect Smith’s 17 targets over the past two weeks will be representative of what he accrue going forward.

Previous recommendations: Michael Jenkins/Dane Sanzenbacher, Week 3; Mark Clayton, Week 4, Naaman Roosevelt, Week 5; Arrelious Benn, Week 6; Roy Williams, Week 7; Joshua Cribbs, Week 9; Andre Roberts, Week 10; Demaryius Thomas, Week 11; Doug Baldwin, Week 12

TE: Anthony Fasano, Miami. If you go strictly by the matchups, it’s hard to see any TE that has a better remaining schedule than Chicago’s Kellen Davis. However, as we discussed earlier, opportunity doesn’t always lead to success and the next time I throw my support behind a TE from a Mike Martz offense will probably also be the first time I have done so. Somewhere lower on the matchup totem pole is Fasano, who has quietly averaged 10.3 fantasy points in PPR over the last five weeks, good for 13th best in the NFL over that time. Much of the credit for that goes to a two-score game against the Chiefs five weeks ago, but even if you call that game a fluke, he has scored at least 8.8 points in three of the next four games. I wouldn’t be in any rush to play him if I already had a top 10-12 TE on my roster, but for those owners looking for a Fred Davis fill-in, Fasano seems to have earned enough trust from Matt Moore to help desperate Davis owners through a bit of a tough stretch.

Previous recommendations: Ben Watson, Week 3; Jake Ballard, Week 4; Joel Dreessen, Week 5; Lance Kendricks, Week 6; Visanthe Shiancoe/Jeremy Shockey, Week 7; Dennis Pitta, Week 9; Daniel Fells, Week 10; Kevin Boss, Week 11; Jared Cook, Week 12

Suggestions, comments, musings about the article or fantasy football in general? E-mail me.