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Doug Orth | Archive | Email | Twitter
Staff Writer


AFC Team-by-Team Breakdowns
Preseason Schedule Analysis
8/9/11

AFC | NFC
AFC East: BUF | MIA | NE | NYJ
AFC North: BAL | CIN | CLE | PIT
AFC South: HOU | IND | JAX | TEN
AFC West: DEN | KC | OAK | SD

Every owner wants to hit on the next big thing in fantasy; that much is no secret. But how do we identify those “breakout players”? Much of the fantasy community is focused on just a few of the factors (age, offensive role, talent, player history and supporting cast are often the most common characteristics used by many “experts”) to project a player for the upcoming season.

In this day and age, I find it amazing that such a small percentage of fantasy owners acknowledge the importance of the opponent when it comes to projecting player performance. Somewhere along with the five aforementioned factors (plus countless more), I believe predictive schedule analysis – when used correctly – provides a huge advantage over the competition. Any veteran fantasy football owner knows it is nearly pointless to use last season's numbers as the main indicator of how a defense will fare this season, which is a big reason I usually go to the trouble of analyzing defense like I have in the past. However, much as I have stated in recent weeks, the lockout threw everyone’s offseason preparation out the window and I was no different in that respect. Therefore, much of what you will see below is a combination of subjective opinion (which ranges from the respect I have for the defensive coordinator to a defense’s offseason additions to how a player fared against a similar defense in the past. It will also include the potential for player growth given his age and experience in the system). As you can see, this analysis is not for the faint of heart…

Among many other factors, the analysis I will provide over the next two weeks is based on the notion that owners would rather have their running backs facing the likes of the Carolina Panthers than the Pittsburgh Steelers or their quarterbacks and receivers taking on the Jacksonville Jaguars as opposed to the New York Jets; I believe this is particularly important during the fantasy playoffs. While many fantasy owners will question that it is nearly impossible to predict any part of the season – much less the end – when games haven’t even been played yet, I would counter with the argument that the defenses of team like the Steelers, Jets and Green Bay Packers have given us enough over the last few years to earn the benefit of doubt when it comes to avoiding players that must face those teams late in the year.

Before we continue, let me clear up any possible misconceptions. Schedule analysis:

1. is not a strength of schedule metric that relies on 2010 results to predict this season and
2. is part of the method I use to project a player’s performance, but far from the only determining factor I use.

Furthermore, I do not use the PSAs to justify taking a non-elite player over a tier-one player. Tier-one players are “cornerstone players” – players who perform well in just about every situation against just about any defense, in large part because a tier-one player is almost always the centerpiece of his team’s offense. Tier-two players and all the players below them often do not have life quite as easy and, thus, are more affected by factors such as playing time and the schedule. It is for these “other” players that I feel like schedule analysis helps the most, to identify what non-elite players heading into 2010 have a chance to take the next step, especially around fantasy playoff time. While the schedule is far from the only thing that matters when projecting NFL player performance, I feel it is foolish to suggest that it doesn’t play a significant role.

While pondering each of the factors I have already mentioned in my analysis of a player, I also consider factors such as home vs. away and the likelihood of bad weather games late in the season. In the end, however, projecting player performance is an art, not a science. There are many different ways to reach the same (or similar) conclusion; I just prefer to show my homework and have found that it is much easier to project a player more accurately when I force myself to evaluate each player on a game-by-game basis.

Much like any projection “system”, each year gives me the opportunity to tweak and hopefully improve the product. In my never-ending quest to make my PSAs and Big Boards the best draft preparation guides I can, I have made a few tweaks that I want to share with you. Most notably, I have added a yellow highlight to my matchup-color family to further help drafters make informed decisions about the players and their matchups. Here’s a quick explanation of each:

Red – A very difficult matchup. For lower-level players, a red matchup means they should not be considered in fantasy. For a second- or third-tier player, don’t expect much and drop your expectations for them at least one grade that week (i.e. from WR2 to WR3). For elite players, expect them to perform like an average player at his position.

Yellow – Keep expectations fairly low in this matchup. For lower-level players, a yellow matchup is a borderline start at best. For a second- or third-tier player, they can probably overcome the matchup if things fall right. For the elite players, expect slightly better than average production from them in this matchup.

Grey – Basically, this matchup is one that could go either way. In some cases, I just don’t feel like I have a good feel yet for this defense. Generally speaking, white matchups are winnable matchups for all levels of players.

Green – It doesn’t get much better than this. The stage is basically set for a player with a green matchup to exploit; it’s up to him to take advantage.

Another major change I will mention here is the way I went about labeling red, yellow or green matchups. This year, I went to great lengths to take into account such factors as home field, bad weather and a whole host of other minor factors that might take too long to explain here. Very few defenses (the Steelers and the Jets) have earned the right to warrant reds against almost every offense, but other teams that may not actually have the greatest defense (teams such as the Colts, Chiefs and Seahawks) but have been awarded yellows and reds because of the respect I have for their home fields and/or the way their home field suits their personnel. Also, I’m aware of only two defenses right now that plan to employ “shadow” CBs (the Jets’ Darrelle Revis and the Ravens’ Jimmy Smith), so top receivers that used to get downgraded for going against CBs like Nnamdi Asomugha or Johnathan Joseph will no longer receive an automatic red because coordinators will often put their best receivers in situations that don’t require them to face those top defensive backs.

I have also added a column to the right of each player’s name that lists the player’s age as of September 1, 2011, with the idea being that drafters like to have that information at their disposal when making a tiebreaking decision between multiple players. And finally, I feel I have done a good job this year at making sure my game-by-game projections more accurately reflect actual game totals than before. What I mean by this is that even the most elite players will have dramatic fluctuations in their actual numbers from game to game, so my game-by-game projections should reflect that.

Notes:

1) The grey highlight in each team’s schedule reflects a road game.

2) These are my initial projections and therefore subject to change. In some cases, these changes will be dramatic as I do put a fair amount of stock into preseason action.

3) For all those readers whose eyes gravitate immediately to the player’s final numbers: they are 15-game totals because most fantasy seasons have a Week 16 title game.

For those unfamiliar with the way I project player stats and individual week-to-week consistency (or for those who need a refresher), please give this article a read for an introductory course in Preseason Schedule Analysis.

AFC EAST

 Buffalo Bills
    Age Totals KC OAK NE CIN PHI NYG bye WAS NYJ DAL MIA NYJ TEN SD MIA DEN
 
QB Ryan Fitzpatrick 28 2975 270 230 190 255 325 140 310 125 INJ 235 110 205 230 145 205
TD 20 1 2 0 3 3 0 4 1 INJ 1 0 3 0 1 1
INT 14 1 1 2 0 3 1 0 2 INJ 0 1 0 2 0 1
Ru Yards 235 25 10 20 5 30 20 0 25 INJ 15 10 20 30 20 5
Ru TD 2 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 INJ 1 0 0 0 0 0
QB Tyler Thigpen 27 345 65 30 250
TD 2 0 0 2
INT 2 1 0 1
Ru Yards 45 15 5 25
Ru TD 1 1 0 0
QB Brad Smith 27 165 0 30 0 0 15 0 20 15 40 0 0 20 0 0 25
TD 2 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
INT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Ru Yards 185 15 0 20 15 20 0 20 10 15 10 20 15 5 10 10
Ru TD 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
Re Yards 300 15 0 15 10 40 25 20 25 20 30 25 25 20 20 10
Re TD 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 23 1 0 2 1 3 2 1 3 1 2 1 2 2 1 1
RB Fred Jackson 30 1010 60 75 50 100 40 70 55 30 70 60 45 110 75 60 110
Ru TD 6 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1
Re Yards 225 15 10 10 0 50 15 20 10 5 15 10 15 30 10 10
Re TD 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 31 2 1 2 0 5 2 3 1 1 3 2 2 4 1 2
RB C.J. Spiller 24 260 20 10 20 40 20 15 15 10 20 INJ 10 20 INJ 25 35
Ru TD 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 INJ 0 0 INJ 1 0
Re Yards 390 25 55 10 10 35 25 35 30 45 INJ 15 20 INJ 25 60
Re TD 3 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 INJ 0 0 INJ 0 1
Rec 34 3 4 2 1 4 2 3 5 3 INJ 1 2 INJ 2 2
WR Steve Johnson 25 1025 65 85 60 100 80 45 125 25 90 75 15 85 70 70 35
Re TD 7 0 1 0 1 0 0 2 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 0
Rec 71 5 6 4 7 4 3 10 2 6 5 1 5 5 6 2
WR Lee Evans 30 750 85 35 10 70 130 25 40 35 80 25 30 70 30 5 80
Re TD 6 1 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0
Rec 46 3 2 1 3 8 2 3 2 3 2 3 4 4 1 5
WR Roscoe Parrish 29 565 60 70 70 55 35 60 50 45 40 80 INJ INJ INJ INJ INJ
Re TD 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 INJ INJ INJ INJ INJ
Rec 45 4 5 7 3 3 5 4 5 3 6 INJ INJ INJ INJ INJ
TE Scott Chandler 26 130 5 0 15 10 0 10 20 0 10 10 15 10 0 15 10
Re TD 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
Rec 16 1 0 2 1 0 1 2 0 1 1 1 2 0 3 1

Impressions: Based off of last year’s fantasy points allowed vs. RB table, it appears the Bills may be getting off easy. I don’t think so. I believe middling fantasy run defenses from last year like the Chiefs and Patriots will be much improved while teams like the Eagles (offseason upgrades) and Cowboys (new DC Rob Ryan) will boost their abilities to stop the run as well. The Giants (one game), Dolphins and Jets (both two games) were both in the top ten vs. opposing RBs and don’t figure to drop off at all. Already, I have listed nine of the 15 teams Fred Jackson must face. With the high likelihood that C.J. Spiller will grab a few more carries from the 30-year-old than he did last year, it’s hard to “pound the table” for one of the league’s most underrated players despite entering this season with the promise he will like likely surpass his career high of 284 touches from 2009. As for the passing game, I think this is where defensive coordinators make the biggest difference. In the first four weeks of the season, the Bills must match wits with the Chiefs’ Romeo Crennel, the Patriots’ Bill Belichick and the Bengals’ Mike Zimmer – each of whom is among the top of their profession. It doesn’t get any easier the rest of the season either with only Washington (Week 8) and Tennessee (Week 13) leaping off the page at me as potential big-game opportunities for this offense. And just in case a home date in Denver looked easy in Week 16, remember how awful the weather can be in northern New York in late December.

 Miami Dolphins
Age Totals NE HOU CLE SD bye NYJ DEN NYG KC WAS BUF DAL OAK PHI BUF NE
 
QB Chad Henne 26 2790 215 240 130 215 175 170 100 220 305 245 305 225 245 BEN BEN
TD 14 0 2 1 0 1 1 1 0 3 2 1 1 1 BEN BEN
INT 13 1 1 2 0 0 1 3 0 0 1 2 0 2 BEN BEN
Ru Yards 35 5 0 0 5 0 10 0 0 0 10 0 5 0 BEN BEN
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 BEN BEN
QB Matt Moore 27 675 75 115 25 260 200
TD 4 1 0 0 1 2
INT 5 0 0 0 3 2
Ru Yards 15 0 0 0 10 5
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0 0
RB Daniel Thomas 23 1145 70 85 105 45 55 130 65 85 70 70 65 80 50 110 60
Ru TD 8 1 0 1 0 0 2 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 0
Re Yards 285 15 25 0 25 20 0 35 60 10 15 25 0 15 25 15
Re TD 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 33 2 3 0 4 3 0 3 4 1 2 3 0 2 4 2
RB Reggie Bush 26 375 25 30 40 15 25 40 15 INJ INJ 45 15 35 20 50 20
Ru TD 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 INJ INJ 1 0 0 0 0 0
Re Yards 500 35 40 60 25 15 20 15 INJ INJ 100 20 45 70 25 30
Re TD 3 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 INJ INJ 1 0 1 0 0 0
Rec 51 4 3 4 3 5 3 2 INJ INJ 6 3 5 7 2 4
WR Brandon Marshall 27 1025 70 90 65 100 15 30 80 55 125 INJ 140 50 65 90 50
Re TD 7 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 2 INJ 1 0 1 1 0
Rec 77 4 7 5 6 2 3 6 4 11 INJ 10 3 6 5 5
WR Davone Bess 25 725 55 50 50 15 70 60 25 60 45 75 60 30 40 35 55
Re TD 3 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
Rec 69 4 6 4 2 5 5 2 6 4 7 6 4 5 3 6
WR Brian Hartline 24 420 25 15 0 40 30 INJ 45 30 75 25 INJ 65 0 30 40
Re TD 1 0 0 0 0 0 INJ 0 0 0 1 INJ 0 0 0 0
Rec 24 2 1 0 2 3 INJ 2 2 3 1 INJ 4 0 2 2
WR Edmund Gates 25 145 0 0 0 10 0 25 10 0 0 20 40 10 0 30 0
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 9 0 0 0 1 0 2 1 0 0 1 2 1 0 1 0
TE Anthony Fasano 27 340 15 20 25 0 25 35 5 15 50 10 20 25 60 25 10
Re TD 3 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1
Rec 33 1 2 2 0 2 2 1 3 5 1 2 3 5 2 2

Impressions: Much like the Bills, the Dolphins don’t benefit much from fantasy perspective since they both play four games each year against Rex Ryan and Belichick-coached defenses. And again, just like Buffalo, the first four games of the season for Miami are no cakewalk. Houston figures to be much improved with DC Wade Phillips and his track record for turning around defenses while Browns’ DC Dick Jauron usually has one of the more fundamentally-sound defenses in the league. Actually, for both the passing and running game, only a home game vs. Denver in Week 7 looks appealing for multiple offensive players. The back end of the schedule – starting in Week 10 with Washington – may offer some relief and give the owners of Thomas and Marshall something to look forward to since the Redskins, Bills (twice) and Raiders all either lost key talents/coaches from their defenses or still clearly in a rebuilding phase on that side of the ball.

 New England Patriots
Age Totals MIA SD BUF OAK NYJ DAL bye PIT NYG NYJ KC PHI IND WAS DEN MIA
 
QB Tom Brady 34 4150 245 320 310 295 230 350 345 230 190 270 370 205 360 255 175
TD 31 1 4 3 3 1 2 3 1 0 2 4 0 3 2 2
INT 9 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 2 0 2 1 0 0 0
Ru Yards 25 0 0 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 0 5 5 0 0 0
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis 26 770 60 30 65 70 25 50 45 35 50 80 50 80 15 INJ 115
Ru TD 8 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 2 0 INJ 1
Re Yards 35 0 5 0 0 0 5 15 5 0 0 0 5 0 INJ 0
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 INJ 0
Rec 6 0 1 0 0 0 1 2 1 0 0 0 1 0 INJ 0
RB Danny Woodhead 26 460 35 25 40 20 25 55 10 65 10 15 20 35 40 50 15
Ru TD 3 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0
Re Yards 340 30 20 15 45 20 15 20 35 15 15 45 15 25 20 5
Re TD 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
Rec 41 4 3 2 4 3 2 2 3 2 1 5 2 4 3 1
RB Shane Vereen 22 295 15 35 25 35 15 20 15 15 25 INJ 5 10 40 30 10
Ru TD 3 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 INJ 0 0 1 1 0
Re Yards 160 15 15 0 30 0 5 15 0 5 INJ 15 10 10 35 5
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 INJ 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 22 2 2 0 3 0 1 3 0 2 INJ 2 1 1 4 1
RB Stevan Ridley 22 185 10 10 35 INJ INJ INJ 5 20 0 10 15 0 30 40 10
Ru TD 3 0 0 1 INJ INJ INJ 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0
Re Yards 15 0 0 0 INJ INJ INJ 5 0 0 5 0 0 0 5 0
Re TD 0 0 0 0 INJ INJ INJ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 3 0 0 0 INJ INJ INJ 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0
WR Chad Ochocinco 33 760 40 80 65 55 10 85 35 60 0 35 80 40 115 25 35
Re TD 7 0 2 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1
Rec 60 4 6 4 4 1 7 3 5 0 3 6 4 8 2 3
WR Wes Welker 30 950 65 45 100 65 80 55 70 50 65 125 INJ 65 35 80 50
Re TD 6 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 2 INJ 0 0 1 1
Rec 87 7 5 9 6 7 5 7 5 5 10 INJ 8 3 6 4
WR Deion Branch 32 470 25 40 10 65 25 60 40 20 50 INJ INJ 25 50 35 25
Re TD 3 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 INJ INJ 0 1 0 0
Rec 43 3 4 1 6 3 5 3 2 5 INJ INJ 2 4 3 2
WR Julian Edelman 25 225 5 0 15 0 15 35 35 0 15 20 50 0 25 0 10
Re TD 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 24 1 0 2 0 2 3 3 0 2 2 6 0 2 0 1
WR Brandon Tate 23 315 0 25 25 0 20 35 45 15 0 20 80 20 25 0 5
Re TD 2 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
Rec 18 0 2 1 0 1 2 2 1 0 1 4 1 2 0 1
TE Rob Gronkowski 22 450 30 15 45 25 5 40 65 45 10 20 35 15 50 15 35
Re TD 7 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
Rec 43 3 2 4 2 1 4 5 5 1 2 3 1 3 2 5
TE Aaron Hernandez 21 430 35 75 35 10 55 15 INJ INJ 30 30 65 10 25 40 5
Re TD 3 0 1 0 0 0 0 INJ INJ 0 0 1 0 0 1 0
Rec 35 2 5 2 1 4 1 INJ INJ 3 4 5 1 2 4 1

Impressions: The Patriots are not like most other teams. For example, while other teams try to force their offensive philosophy in every game they play, New England adapts. If they are facing the Steelers, why bother pounding away against their base defense when Pittsburgh doesn’t have five players that can cover the Patriots’ five best receivers and/or tight ends? Thus, really one opponent needs to be considered a difficult matchup for the passing game when New England plays – the Jets. And the reasons for that should be fairly obvious. The only other potential matchup that could give me a bit of pause right now would be the Eagles, who have enough depth right now at all the cover positions (CB, LB, S) to pretty much matchup with whatever formation the Patriots may line up in throughout the game. New England’s running game is highly underrated, in large part because of its heavy committee approach, but last year marked the fifth straight season that it finished in the top 10 for fantasy points. Because the Patriots’ offensive attack from week to week is so matchup-based (as opposed to blindly attacking a defense with the offense’s best weapon as some teams seem to do), the running game’s success can sometimes take a back seat to the passing game for the first three quarters, only to make up for it in the fourth quarter trying to run out the clock with a two-score lead.

 New York Jets
Age Totals DAL JAX OAK BAL NE MIA SD bye BUF NE DEN BUF WAS KC PHI NYG
 
QB Mark Sanchez 24 3445 195 270 170 205 175 235 235 235 255 195 260 280 210 275 250
TD 20 1 2 0 0 1 2 2 1 2 2 2 3 0 1 1
INT 13 1 0 0 2 1 1 0 1 2 0 0 1 1 3 0
Ru Yards 90 10 0 5 15 0 5 0 5 10 0 5 0 10 15 10
Ru TD 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
RB Shonn Greene 26 1090 70 75 100 55 75 90 40 110 55 120 INJ 70 85 45 100
Ru TD 9 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 2 0 1 INJ 0 1 0 1
Re Yards 90 5 0 15 10 0 15 0 5 5 0 INJ 15 15 5 0
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 INJ 0 0 0 0
Rec 14 1 0 1 2 0 2 0 1 1 0 INJ 3 2 1 0
RB LaDainian Tomlinson 32 365 20 25 25 10 35 15 50 30 15 20 70 INJ 15 10 25
Ru TD 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 INJ 0 0 0
Re Yards 235 15 25 10 15 15 5 25 15 10 15 35 INJ 20 15 15
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 INJ 0 0 0
Rec 34 2 4 1 2 3 1 3 2 1 3 5 INJ 3 2 2
RB Joe McKnight 23 345 10 0 30 25 25 10 INJ 25 35 45 60 20 30 10 20
Ru TD 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 INJ 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
Re Yards 190 10 10 0 20 5 0 INJ 15 30 0 10 45 0 25 20
Re TD 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 INJ 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
Rec 22 1 1 0 2 1 0 INJ 2 3 0 1 5 0 3 3
WR Santonio Holmes 27 1075 85 90 50 40 80 70 105 60 75 30 85 105 45 85 70
Re TD 7 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 0
Rec 77 6 6 4 3 5 5 8 4 6 3 8 7 3 4 5
WR Plaxico Burress 34 510 25 40 30 30 15 INJ 50 70 50 INJ INJ 40 65 35 60
Re TD 4 0 1 0 0 0 INJ 1 0 0 INJ INJ 1 0 0 1
Rec 42 2 3 2 3 1 INJ 3 6 5 INJ INJ 4 6 3 4
WR Jeremy Kerley 22 210 0 10 25 20 10 20 0 20 5 30 10 0 15 25 20
Re TD 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 23 0 1 2 2 1 2 0 2 1 3 1 0 2 4 2
WR Derrick Mason 37 605 25 50 30 40 35 45 20 40 25 80 60 45 35 50 25
Re TD 3 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0
Rec 51 2 4 3 3 4 5 3 3 2 5 6 4 2 3 2
TE Dustin Keller 26 530 30 45 10 30 15 80 35 10 55 40 60 30 15 35 40
Re TD 4 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0
Rec 50 3 4 1 3 2 8 3 1 6 4 4 3 1 3 4

Impressions: Fantasy owners should have a pretty good idea about how good Shonn Greene will be around Week 3. There’s no doubt in mind that when Rob Ryan’s Cowboys defense takes on his brother’s team in Week 1, it will be all about shutting down the run. Jacksonville should have an improved defense as well and I tend to believe Oakland’s front seven will round into form as a decent run-stopping unit this season. If Greene hasn’t had a game of note by that point, it may not come until after the bye with road games vs. the Ravens and Patriots in Weeks 4-5 followed by two home games against top 10 fantasy run defenses from a season ago in Miami and San Diego. After that, Greene owners should enjoy life for about a five-week stretch before a difficult fantasy playoff stretch of teams that should have the depth and schemes to force the Jets to pass the ball in order to win. As for Sanchez & Co., only three teams on their fantasy schedule strike me as difficult matchups at the moment – the Chargers (Week 7), Eagles (Week 15) and Giants (Week 16) – because each of them have the depth to withstand injuries and match up well with the likes of Holmes, Burress, Mason, Keller and even Kerley.

AFC NORTH

 Baltimore Ravens
Age Totals PIT TEN STL NYJ bye HOU JAX ARI PIT SEA CIN SF CLE IND SD CLE
 
QB Joe Flacco 26 3635 190 285 225 150 275 310 225 245 285 160 330 235 180 235 305
TD 22 0 1 2 0 2 3 2 1 1 1 3 2 0 1 3
INT 11 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 2 0 1 2 1 0
Ru Yards 70 0 5 5 0 0 10 0 5 15 5 0 10 5 10 0
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
RB Ray Rice 24 1245 45 110 75 55 105 80 55 35 65 105 90 100 125 70 130
Ru TD 8 0 2 0 0 2 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 1
Re Yards 685 25 50 40 10 40 75 30 15 110 25 70 50 45 45 55
Re TD 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1
Rec 69 3 6 4 2 3 8 4 3 6 4 7 6 5 5 3
RB Ricky Williams 34 355 25 10 25 20 55 20 10 15 15 25 45 30 10 35 15
Ru TD 4 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0
Re Yards 60 5 0 5 0 15 5 0 0 0 5 10 5 0 10 0
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 9 1 0 1 0 2 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0
WR Anquan Boldin 30 970 55 75 85 35 50 110 75 80 45 25 90 55 30 50 110
Re TD 7 0 0 1 0 0 2 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1
Rec 78 5 5 6 2 5 10 6 7 4 2 8 5 3 4 6
WR Torrey Smith 22 540 45 60 25 5 65 15 50 20 35 20 85 INJ 15 30 70
Re TD 4 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 INJ 0 0 1
Rec 35 2 4 2 1 3 1 3 2 2 2 4 INJ 1 3 5
WR Tandon Doss 21 475 25 40 10 55 35 55 10 40 10 20 25 45 55 35 15
Re TD 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
Rec 40 2 3 1 4 3 5 2 2 1 2 2 3 5 3 2
WR James Hardy 25 195 0 15 0 15 45 0 25 20 10 0 0 40 0 15 10
Re TD 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 14 0 1 0 2 2 0 2 1 1 0 0 3 0 1 1
TE Ed Dickson 24 315 10 30 25 10 10 40 0 15 60 40 5 40 0 10 20
Re TD 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0
Rec 28 1 2 2 1 1 4 0 1 5 3 1 3 0 1 3
TE Dennis Pitta 26 395 25 15 35 20 15 10 35 55 15 25 45 0 35 40 25
Re TD 4 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0
Rec 38 2 2 4 2 2 1 3 3 2 2 4 0 5 4 2

Impressions: Whether or not the Ravens are ready to admit it or not, every key offensive move so far points in the same direction – get the ball to Ray Rice. In one offseason, Baltimore waved goodbye to the two most likely players to steal any touches from Rice, although they did add Ricky Williams just before press time. Then, the team cut loose a 60-catch receiver (Derrick Mason) and will try to replace him with two rookies. Finally, two second-year TEs will attempt to replace Todd Heap, who caught 40 balls last season and was one of Joe Flacco’s most trusted red zone targets. What this means is that Boldin may be force-fed the ball when the Ravens need a big play in the passing game and Rice will be the next in line when Boldin isn’t open. Therefore, Boldin is a good bet to return to 80 catches and Rice should have a decent shot to match his 77 receptions from 2009. And the schedule should cooperate with both players as they should only have one stout defense to face after Week 9 (San Diego in Week 15), although Seattle on the road in Week 10 could be a sneaky difficult matchup. Rice will most likely get off to a difficult start – not only because of the schedule but the way OC Cam Cameron uses his main RB early in the season, but he should be on his way to a 1,900-2,000 total yard season thereafter. As for Boldin, the best CBs he may see after Week 6 are Ike Taylor (Week 9), Leon Hall (Week 11) and the Chargers’ CBs (Week 15). None of these players are “shadow” CBs nor are they good enough to shut down a healthy Boldin all game long.

 Cincinnati Bengals
Age Totals CLE DEN SF BUF JAX IND bye SEA TEN PIT BAL CLE PIT HOU STL ARI
 
QB Bruce Gradkowski 28 500 155 235 110
TD 5 2 2 1
INT 5 1 2 2
Ru Yards 25 10 10 5
Ru TD 0 0 0 0
QB Andy Dalton 23 2975 230 240 205 250 205 100 175 215 210 INJ 280 210 150 270 235
TD 14 1 1 2 2 0 0 1 1 0 INJ 2 0 1 2 1
INT 17 1 2 0 2 1 3 2 0 1 INJ 0 2 2 1 0
Ru Yards 205 15 10 5 0 10 10 25 15 5 INJ 35 20 10 25 20
Ru TD 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 INJ 1 0 0 0 0
RB Cedric Benson 28 865 80 115 70 60 40 50 35 80 50 40 55 INJ 70 65 55
Ru TD 5 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 INJ 1 0 0
Re Yards 135 10 15 0 5 30 20 10 0 10 0 5 INJ 20 10 0
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 INJ 0 0 0
Rec 18 1 2 0 1 4 2 1 0 2 0 1 INJ 3 1 0
RB Bernard Scott 27 425 25 35 55 15 70 25 20 INJ INJ 15 30 50 15 30 40
Ru TD 2 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 INJ INJ 0 0 0 0 0 0
Re Yards 130 5 15 20 0 15 0 10 INJ INJ 10 15 20 0 5 15
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 INJ INJ 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 14 1 1 2 0 1 0 1 INJ INJ 2 1 3 0 1 1
RB Brian Leonard 27 90 0 5 10 0 0 10 10 15 5 0 0 25 0 10 0
Ru TD 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0
Re Yards 175 15 0 5 15 10 25 0 15 20 10 25 15 0 5 15
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 27 2 0 1 3 2 4 0 3 3 1 3 2 0 1 2
WR A.J. Green 23 885 40 65 55 80 40 70 35 90 45 25 110 30 75 70 55
Re TD 7 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 1
Rec 56 3 6 2 4 3 3 2 5 3 2 7 3 6 4 3
WR Jerome Simpson 25 790 40 55 80 30 55 65 25 45 30 100 40 20 80 80 45
Re TD 4 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0
Rec 49 3 3 5 2 4 4 1 3 2 4 3 2 4 6 3
WR Jordan Shipley 25 525 45 25 20 40 15 20 30 15 45 35 35 70 35 55 40
Re TD 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0
Rec 52 5 3 2 4 3 1 3 3 4 4 3 7 2 4 4
WR Andre Caldwell 26 265 20 15 0 35 10 15 0 15 30 15 0 30 40 0 40
Re TD 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 20 1 2 0 2 1 1 0 2 2 1 0 2 3 0 3
TE Jermaine Gresham 23 570 55 50 25 45 30 40 65 35 30 40 50 25 10 45 25
Re TD 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 0
Rec 52 4 5 2 5 3 4 6 3 3 2 5 2 1 5 2

Impressions: Whereas owners of Ray Rice and Anquan Boldin might be in a bit of a panic after one month, Bengals’ players sure look like good sell-high candidates early in the season, at least prior to their Week 7 bye. Cincinnati’s first five opponents all feature defenses that are undergoing scheme changes (the first three) or teams that have significant weaknesses that can be exploited (Bills and Jags), even by an offense that will be just picking up the nuances of OC Jay Gruden’s West Coast offense. The Bengals even get the Colts at home, which means they will be less prone to the fast track at Lucas Oil Stadium that makes the Colts’ pass rush so frightening. After that, it is mostly bad news for the running and passing game, but especially for the former. Seattle is always tough at home and then, after a road game in Nashville, the Bengals face the Ravens and Steelers three times over the next four weeks. The fantasy playoffs look easy for Benson based on last season’s fantasy points allowed vs. RBs numbers, but I expect Houston’s and Arizona’s run defense to be significantly better and the Rams were already tough at home in 2010 before the additions they made in free agency and through the draft. This would typically be good news for a Carson Palmer-led offense, but I don’t expect Dalton to pull a Sam Bradford and win the battle of wits against the likes of Dick LeBeau, Wade Phillips or Steve Spagnuolo all that often.

 Cleveland Browns
Age Totals CIN IND MIA TEN bye OAK SEA SF HOU STL JAX CIN BAL PIT ARI BAL
 
QB Colt McCoy 24 2305 225 140 210 235 190 185 235 175 INJ INJ 195 260 215 40 INJ
TD 10 1 0 1 2 1 0 1 1 INJ INJ 0 3 0 0 INJ
INT 12 1 2 0 1 2 0 1 2 INJ INJ 1 0 2 0 INJ
Ru Yards 165 10 25 15 5 25 5 10 30 INJ INJ 10 5 20 5 INJ
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 INJ INJ 0 0 0 0 INJ
QB Seneca Wallace 32 1025 40 115 205 225 245 195
TD 6 0 1 2 1 2 0
INT 7 1 1 1 0 3 1
Ru Yards 85 0 10 20 30 15 10
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
RB Peyton Hillis 25 980 75 50 85 40 45 120 65 80 75 25 70 85 40 90 35
Ru TD 8 1 1 1 0 0 2 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 0
Re Yards 380 25 30 15 40 15 30 5 25 35 0 15 55 35 10 45
Re TD 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0
Rec 47 3 3 2 5 2 3 1 4 3 0 2 6 5 2 6
RB Montario Hardesty 24 375 35 40 30 60 70 25 55 INJ INJ 35 25 INJ INJ INJ INJ
Ru TD 2 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 INJ INJ 0 0 INJ INJ INJ INJ
Re Yards 35 5 0 0 10 5 0 0 INJ INJ 5 10 INJ INJ INJ INJ
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 INJ INJ 0 0 INJ INJ INJ INJ
Rec 6 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 INJ INJ 1 2 INJ INJ INJ INJ
RB Brandon Jackson 25 235 10 5 0 25 10 10 5 25 30 40 20 15 15 0 25
Ru TD 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
Re Yards 220 10 20 10 15 5 0 15 15 10 30 5 10 5 55 15
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 32 2 3 2 2 1 0 3 2 2 3 1 2 1 6 2
WR Mohamed Massaquoi 24 680 40 25 30 70 40 20 50 115 30 55 75 30 35 25 40
Re TD 3 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0
Rec 40 3 2 3 4 3 1 3 5 1 3 5 2 2 1 2
WR Greg Little 22 660 25 35 50 25 55 40 100 55 45 15 INJ 85 35 55 40
Re TD 4 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 INJ 1 0 0 0
Rec 50 3 4 3 2 5 3 5 3 4 2 INJ 6 3 4 3
WR Brian Robiskie 23 375 45 20 25 30 25 0 25 35 10 40 30 20 40 30 0
Re TD 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0
Rec 34 4 2 3 3 1 0 2 4 1 4 4 2 3 1 0
WR Josh Cribbs 28 220 10 10 20 0 0 25 10 15 30 0 25 0 30 20 25
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 22 1 1 2 0 0 2 1 2 3 0 2 0 3 2 3
TE Ben Watson 30 700 65 25 60 45 45 70 30 25 45 80 35 60 35 50 30
Re TD 5 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0
Rec 63 5 2 6 5 4 6 3 4 4 5 3 6 2 5 3

Impressions: Fans of Peyton Hillis this season may be in the process of dodging one bullet with Montario Hardesty’s continued knee woes, but unlike last season, Cleveland has another alternative in Brandon Jackson and probably the most difficult fantasy playoff stretch of any RB. The Browns acknowledged they asked too much of Hillis last season, so even if Hardesty cannot play at all again this season, his absence should not lead to a long stretch of 25-touch games for Hillis this season, in all likelihood. And don’t think for a second this doesn’t hurt Hillis in fantasy, because much of his value last season came from the fact that he owned 79% of the touches that came out of the Browns’ backfield in 2010. Asking him to post the same kind of numbers against a slightly more difficult schedule in a new offense with fewer touches is obviously not a recipe for fantasy success. While it could be argued the 2011 edition of the Browns’ passing game isn’t much different than Pat Shurmur’s 2010 Rams, Colt McCoy is not Sam Bradford and the receivers aren’t any better than the ones the new coach had in St. Louis. Even against an “easy” passing game schedule, Cleveland would not feature a lot of fantasy options, but it’s hard to argue that any WR in this offense should grace an owner’s regular lineup in fantasy again this season. However, the case could be made for Watson as his athleticism is a good fit in the West Coast offense (and thus, a low-end TE1 candidate), but outside of him, only Greg Little should be drafted in typical 12-team leagues.

 Pittsburgh Steelers
Age Totals BAL SEA IND HOU TEN JAX ARI NE BAL CIN bye KC CIN CLE SF STL
 
QB Ben Roethlisberger 29 3935 220 290 235 290 215 315 260 310 170 270 240 240 330 315 235
TD 23 1 3 1 1 2 2 1 1 0 3 1 1 3 2 1
INT 11 1 0 1 1 0 0 2 2 0 1 0 2 1 0 0
Ru Yards 150 15 5 5 15 0 10 5 20 5 10 5 10 10 25 10
Ru TD 2 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
RB Rashard Mendenhall 24 1150 45 90 80 65 120 75 60 45 80 105 70 75 85 65 90
Ru TD 10 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 2 1 1 1
Re Yards 190 15 5 20 10 0 25 15 15 5 15 20 5 15 15 10
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 28 2 1 3 2 0 4 2 3 1 2 2 1 1 3 1
RB Isaac Redman 26 240 10 15 5 30 15 0 10 15 5 15 30 15 20 40 15
Ru TD 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
Re Yards 70 0 20 0 5 10 0 0 5 10 0 5 0 0 10 5
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 10 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 2 0 1 0 0 2 1
WR Mike Wallace 25 1285 55 120 60 115 80 125 50 95 35 115 35 85 110 135 70
Re TD 8 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 2 0
Rec 75 4 7 5 5 4 6 3 9 3 8 2 5 4 5 5
WR Hines Ward 35 695 35 50 75 60 35 55 75 30 10 45 40 35 65 55 30
Re TD 4 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0
Rec 58 3 4 5 4 2 5 7 3 1 5 3 4 6 4 2
WR Emmanuel Sanders 24 810 20 65 15 70 50 25 75 60 55 65 75 55 80 40 60
Re TD 5 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 1
Rec 47 1 3 1 5 4 2 6 2 3 4 3 3 3 4 3
WR Antonio Brown 23 405 55 20 10 15 15 45 20 45 20 0 50 30 20 35 25
Re TD 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
Rec 27 3 2 1 2 1 3 1 2 1 0 4 2 1 3 1
TE Heath Miller 28 480 40 10 55 15 25 40 25 60 35 30 15 30 40 25 35
Re TD 4 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
Rec 54 5 1 6 2 3 5 3 7 4 3 2 3 5 2 3

Impressions: Perhaps the best thing I can say about the Steelers’ schedule is that it appears the toughest competition appears in the early part of the season. Each of Pittsburgh’s five road games should be difficult matchups, but its own defense will make sure the running game will get the obligatory 25-30 rushes per game and keep the game close enough for Roethlisberger to win it at the end. The only matchup to avoid is Baltimore (Week 1 and Week 9), but that does not apply to Mendenhall – who will almost certainly get his touches - or Wallace. I’m not crazy about Week 8 vs. New England either, but again, Mendenhall and Wallace cannot be benched in fantasy. The same cannot be said about Ward and Roethlisberger, although both should be in just about every fantasy lineup except for the Ravens’ contests. The fantasy playoff schedule looks to line up nicely for all parties involved as none of the final three teams on the schedule have a player who can match up well with Wallace nor do any of these teams figure to have stout run defenses. Furthermore, two of those games are at Heinz Field, which means the last difficult matchup the Steelers will have – run or pass – may be at Arrowhead Stadium vs. the Chiefs in Week 12.

AFC South

 Houston Texans
Age Totals IND MIA NO PIT OAK BAL TEN JAX CLE TB bye JAX ATL CIN CAR IND
 
QB Matt Schaub 30 3805 245 345 255 210 175 325 255 275 275 225 255 280 275 185 225
TD 23 1 3 1 1 2 0 2 3 1 1 2 2 3 1 0
INT 11 1 0 3 0 0 2 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 1
Ru Yards 35 0 5 0 0 5 5 0 0 5 0 5 5 0 0 5
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
RB Arian Foster 25 1410 130 65 85 45 125 70 50 70 110 100 95 110 115 140 100
Ru TD 12 2 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 3 1
Re Yards 425 15 40 30 20 5 75 15 5 25 35 15 50 35 5 55
Re TD 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
Rec 52 2 5 3 3 1 8 2 1 3 4 2 5 4 2 7
RB Derrick Ward 31 185 25 40 5 15 5 30 15 5 15 5 20 5 INJ INJ INJ
Ru TD 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 INJ INJ INJ
Re Yards 30 5 0 5 0 0 0 10 0 5 0 5 0 INJ INJ INJ
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 INJ INJ INJ
Rec 6 1 0 1 0 0 0 2 0 1 0 1 0 INJ INJ INJ
RB Ben Tate 23 180 5 5 5 20 25 5 45 INJ INJ INJ 5 0 15 30 20
Ru TD 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 INJ INJ INJ 0 0 0 1 0
Re Yards 30 0 0 0 5 0 0 5 INJ INJ INJ 5 0 5 10 0
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 INJ INJ INJ 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 5 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 INJ INJ INJ 1 0 1 1 0
WR Andre Johnson 30 1390 105 80 70 110 90 70 60 150 110 65 115 80 120 85 80
Re TD 10 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 2 0 0 1 0 2 1 0
Rec 106 8 7 6 10 8 5 5 11 7 4 8 6 9 5 7
WR Jacoby Jones 28 540 25 50 65 10 0 65 20 65 35 75 60 20 25 10 15
Re TD 4 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0
Rec 30 2 3 3 1 0 2 1 3 1 5 3 2 2 1 1
WR Kevin Walter 29 520 35 60 25 45 10 40 35 15 90 20 15 50 35 20 25
Re TD 2 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 47 3 4 2 4 1 4 3 1 8 2 2 5 4 2 2
WR Dorin Dickerson 23 175 0 25 15 0 10 10 0 30 10 30 0 15 0 10 20
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 12 0 1 1 0 1 2 0 2 1 1 0 1 0 1 1
TE Owen Daniels 28 695 60 90 45 20 60 65 110 10 INJ INJ 40 65 55 45 30
Re TD 5 0 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 INJ INJ 0 1 1 0 0
Rec 58 5 7 4 3 4 6 8 1 INJ INJ 3 5 5 4 3

Impressions: Looking for another reason to select Arian Foster No. 1 overall in your draft? Look no further than the final two weeks of the season. The Panthers have little chance to be anything more than a mediocre run-stopping unit while the Colts have long had their issues stopping the run. As most fantasy owners know, the home surface suits their defensive speed well, but they can still be exploited by a dominant rushing attack at Lucas Oil Stadium. Some hardcore owners will cite the loss of FB Vonta Leach as a reason to downgrade Foster, but one look at his splits last season reveals he averaged 5.3 YPC as the lone setback on 111 carries last season. And while Lawrence Vickers is not the caliber of blocker Leach is, he is still regarded as one of the better lead blockers in the league. It’s not fair to expect Foster to repeat his 2010 numbers again this season, but with one of the best offensive lines in the business and this schedule, there is no reason he can’t do so. As for the passing game, obviously Andre Johnson is an every-week start, but the case could be made for Matt Schaub as a low-end QB1 in 12-team leagues after a slightly disappointing season last year. (Much of the blame for that, however, can be put on the injuries suffered by Johnson and Owen Daniels.) Though it won’t receive the press it should, the Houston offense is as dynamic as any team in the league when all the parts are on the field. As far as Schaub and his schedule are concerned, I see the Saints (Week 3), Steelers (Week 4) and Ravens (Week 6) as possible bench-worthy times for him. Otherwise, enjoy high-level production at a mid-round price as long as AJ and Daniels can stay away from the training table.

 Indianapolis Colts
Age Totals HOU CLE PIT TB KC CIN NO TEN ATL JAX bye CAR NE BAL TEN HOU
 
QB Peyton Manning 35 4465 275 300 250 370 240 340 325 285 240 365 245 270 275 330 355
TD 30 1 2 2 3 1 3 2 2 2 3 1 1 1 3 3
INT 9 1 1 1 0 2 0 2 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0
Ru Yards 20 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 10 0 0
Ru TD 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
RB Joseph Addai 28 830 55 70 40 85 50 65 35 85 INJ INJ 100 45 55 65 80
Ru TD 8 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 2 INJ INJ 1 1 0 0 1
Re Yards 320 20 20 15 40 20 40 55 0 INJ INJ 15 0 30 20 45
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 INJ INJ 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 42 3 4 2 4 3 5 7 0 INJ INJ 2 0 4 3 5
RB Donald Brown 24 285 20 5 25 40 25 35 INJ INJ INJ INJ 10 45 20 25 35
Ru TD 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 INJ INJ INJ INJ 0 1 0 0 0
Re Yards 110 25 0 5 15 0 0 INJ INJ INJ INJ 15 20 5 20 5
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 INJ INJ INJ INJ 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 15 2 0 1 2 0 0 INJ INJ INJ INJ 2 3 2 2 1
RB Delone Carter 24 280 15 20 5 10 10 15 25 20 60 75 20 0 5 INJ INJ
Ru TD 3 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 INJ INJ
Re Yards 55 0 0 0 0 10 0 0 5 25 15 0 0 0 INJ INJ
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 INJ INJ
Rec 9 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 4 2 0 0 0 INJ INJ
WR Reggie Wayne 32 1230 75 100 70 130 40 50 55 105 90 165 50 100 70 60 70
Re TD 9 1 0 0 2 0 0 0 2 1 1 0 1 0 0 1
Rec 90 6 7 5 8 3 4 3 8 7 11 4 8 5 7 4
WR Pierre Garcon 25 870 15 65 40 40 60 125 25 INJ 65 70 30 45 90 120 80
Re TD 8 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 INJ 1 0 0 0 1 2 1
Rec 53 1 4 3 2 5 5 2 INJ 5 4 3 2 5 7 5
WR Austin Collie 25 890 60 55 40 50 75 65 85 100 35 65 70 65 50 INJ 75
Re TD 4 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 INJ 0
Rec 79 6 5 5 4 7 6 6 8 3 5 6 8 3 INJ 7
WR Anthony Gonzalez 26 160 10 10 0 20 INJ INJ INJ 30 25 INJ INJ INJ INJ 40 25
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 INJ INJ INJ 0 0 INJ INJ INJ INJ 0 0
Rec 15 1 1 0 2 INJ INJ INJ 3 2 INJ INJ INJ INJ 4 2
TE Dallas Clark 32 830 70 50 80 75 35 60 105 45 INJ 50 65 40 30 70 55
Re TD 9 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 INJ 1 1 0 0 1 1
Rec 79 6 6 8 6 4 6 10 3 INJ 4 6 4 3 6 7

Impressions: Baltimore, New Orleans and Pittsburgh could be down weeks for Peyton Manning, Dallas Clark and Reggie Wayne, but I can’t imagine too many scenarios in which any of the three players would ever sit. Outside of the Ravens’ game in Week 14, two home games to close out the fantasy season against a pair of average secondaries should give each player a little boost on my Big Board in a couple of weeks. Eve n though multiple concussions ended his season prematurely, there aren’t too many receivers that post the numbers Austin Collie can when he is on the field. There is no doubt he carries a great deal of risk, but he’s being selected in some fantasy draft where some WR3s are usually taken, but he has already proven he can play like a WR1 – he’s worth the gamble at that point. Pierre Garcon is the only risky one of the bunch as far as I’m concerned. If I was his owner, I would plan on using him against opponents like the Bucs, Falcons and Jags who aren’t exactly blitz-heavy teams. So much of his game comes from his big-play ability, which means he needs a second or two more than his other teammates to get down the field. On the other hand, the running game has the potential to turn into a mess. It is getting harder to trust Joseph Addai in even slightly difficult matchups much less against the three red teams I have listed for him above. With that said, the Delone Carter hype got a bit out of control over the summer, so unless Addai gets hurt again (definitely possible) or the new additions to the offensive line don’t make an immediate contribution, the rookie should be considered a late-round upside pick at best for now. Therefore, Addai needs to be viewed as an underrated RB2, especially in PPR leagues. Let’s not forget that even though Carter was drafted to be a short-yardage “hammer”, Addai is one season removed from 13 total TDs, with seven of those scores coming from inside the 5.

 Jacksonville Jaguars
Age Totals TEN NYJ CAR NO CIN PIT BAL HOU bye IND CLE HOU SD TB ATL TEN
 
QB David Garrard 33 1555 220 255 175 245 240 180 80 INJ 160
TD 7 1 1 0 2 2 0 0 INJ 1
INT 9 0 1 3 0 1 2 2 INJ 0
Ru Yards 115 15 25 5 15 35 0 5 INJ 15
Ru TD 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 INJ 1
QB Blaine Gabbert 21 1930 175 205 175 260 115 230 275 220 275
TD 13 2 1 2 2 0 2 2 1 1
INT 11 1 2 2 0 1 3 0 2 0
Ru Yards 145 10 30 15 5 10 15 5 20 35
Ru TD 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0
RB Maurice Jones-Drew 26 1105 90 60 125 35 65 40 55 90 60 100 65 40 115 115 50
Ru TD 9 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 1
Re Yards 435 20 45 10 60 25 15 30 40 55 25 20 15 5 20 50
Re TD 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 49 2 6 1 6 3 2 4 2 5 2 3 3 1 3 6
RB Rashad Jennings 26 515 50 10 15 55 40 45 25 30 35 20 55 45 35 15 40
Ru TD 5 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1
Re Yards 160 5 15 5 0 0 20 10 35 5 20 10 20 0 10 5
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 23 1 2 1 0 0 2 1 3 1 4 2 3 0 2 1
WR Mike Thomas 24 840 55 20 80 50 65 35 40 50 30 55 100 65 115 40 40
Re TD 3 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0
Rec 72 5 2 6 5 6 2 5 4 3 5 7 5 10 4 3
WR Jason Hill 26 445 35 25 45 20 10 35 25 50 INJ 70 15 0 20 15 80
Re TD 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 INJ 1 0 0 0 0 1
Rec 27 2 1 4 1 1 2 2 3 INJ 4 1 0 2 1 3
WR Cecil Shorts 23 500 25 50 10 40 0 50 55 10 15 10 40 60 55 60 20
Re TD 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0
Rec 37 2 3 1 4 0 5 3 1 2 1 3 4 2 4 2
WR Jarett Dillard 25 215 40 25 INJ 15 40 0 15 0 15 35 20 INJ INJ 10 INJ
Re TD 2 1 0 INJ 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 INJ INJ 0 INJ
Rec 12 2 2 INJ 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 2 INJ INJ 1 INJ
TE Marcedes Lewis 27 710 40 70 15 60 90 20 55 20 50 25 45 70 60 20 70
Re TD 7 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 0
Rec 63 4 6 2 5 6 2 5 3 5 2 3 8 5 2 5
TE Zach Miller 26 180 0 5 10 0 10 5 25 0 5 20 25 0 20 45 10
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 20 0 1 1 0 2 1 2 0 1 3 2 0 2 4 1

Impressions: Anyone hoping for a fast start from the Jags’ offense – and Maurice Jones-Drew in particular – should lower their expectations. After a Week 1 intra-division battle with the Titans, four of the next six games are against defenses that figure to be among the best in the league and a fifth team – the Bengals – who should not be all that bad against the run either. With that in mind, it may be a good idea to target Jaguar standouts like MJD, Mike Thomas and Marcedes Lewis around the Week 9 bye as opposed to the beginning of the season. This stretch of early games also may be all the reason the Jacksonville coaching staff needs to insert Blaine Gabbert into the lineup. Things should get considerably easier after the bye with only a road game in San Diego appearing to be a bad matchup for MJD and/or Rashad Jennings. As for the aerial attack, the Jags are not exactly the most dynamic offense even with David Garrard in the lineup, so expect a rough stretch for Gabbert and the passing game if/when he takes over for Garrard.

 Tennessee Titans
Age Totals JAX BAL DEN CLE PIT bye HOU IND CIN CAR ATL TB BUF NO IND JAX
 
QB Matt Hasselbeck 35 3040 230 205 250 280 135 290 220 260 200 INJ INJ 245 130 230 365
TD 16 2 1 1 1 0 2 1 1 2 INJ INJ 1 0 2 2
INT 14 1 0 1 0 2 2 1 1 0 INJ INJ 2 2 1 1
Ru Yards 50 5 0 10 0 5 5 5 0 0 INJ INJ 0 10 10 0
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 INJ INJ 0 0 0 0
QB Jake Locker 23 650 45 85 200 250 70
TD 1 0 0 0 1 0
INT 3 0 0 2 1 0
Ru Yards 60 0 15 20 15 10
Ru TD 1 0 0 1 0 0
RB Chris Johnson 25 1315 85 40 120 100 35 75 105 65 150 100 80 135 45 70 110
Ru TD 10 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 2 1 1 1 0 1 1
Re Yards 535 20 35 75 40 10 70 20 35 15 55 20 20 40 25 55
Re TD 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 54 2 4 5 5 1 7 2 3 1 5 3 2 6 3 5
RB Javon Ringer 24 185 10 10 15 10 0 10 20 15 0 20 5 35 10 15 10
Ru TD 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
Re Yards 65 5 0 0 0 10 0 15 5 10 5 0 5 0 0 10
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 10 1 0 0 0 2 0 2 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 1
RB Jamie Harper 21 165 15 5 10 5 15 15 10 10 15 5 10 10 5 25 10
Ru TD 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Re Yards 80 5 20 0 5 5 10 5 10 0 0 15 0 0 5 0
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 12 1 2 0 1 1 1 1 2 0 0 2 0 0 1 0
WR Kenny Britt 22 890 SUS SUS 45 115 30 50 40 35 80 75 80 115 40 65 120
Re TD 7 SUS SUS 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 1
Rec 54 SUS SUS 3 8 3 3 4 2 5 4 3 5 2 6 6
WR Nate Washington 28 590 70 40 15 40 45 65 30 25 40 10 40 20 35 50 65
Re TD 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 34 3 2 1 3 2 3 1 1 3 1 3 2 2 3 4
WR Damian Williams 23 575 55 70 40 35 25 30 65 55 30 25 35 15 30 25 40
Re TD 2 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 49 5 5 4 3 2 3 6 4 2 2 4 1 3 2 3
WR Marc Mariani 24 160 25 10 10 0 10 10 0 25 20 0 10 0 25 15 0
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 17 2 1 1 0 1 2 0 2 2 0 1 0 2 3 0
TE Jared Cook 24 755 50 30 65 45 30 55 45 70 65 30 50 70 30 45 75
Re TD 5 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1
Rec 62 5 2 4 3 4 5 4 6 4 4 3 6 2 5 5

Impressions: There is so much potential here. Unfortunately, there are also so many questions with Tennessee that I made the Titans the last AFC team I projected because I was hoping for some clarity on the Chris Johnson holdout and a possible Kenny Britt suspension. I seriously contemplated projecting the Titans without Johnson, but if he doesn’t report by August 9, he will lose the chance to accrue another year of service time towards free agency and begin losing $30 K a day (according to the rules of the new CBA). And unfortunately for him, Tennessee knows it isn’t playing for a title this season, so the team may be just fine playing hardball while controlling Johnson’s rights for another year on the cheap. As for Kenny Britt, his numerous offseason arrests figure to lead to some kind of suspension – I have him missing two games above – so some of his luster has been lost after flashing some serious potential when he was healthy last season. Since two of the team’s biggest fantasy players and their immediate futures are in doubt, I will only speak in generalities about the schedule for now. A completely healthy Titans’ offense has a shot to give four starter-worthy candidates for fantasy owners at the beginning of the season, especially against a schedule that gets two of the three toughest defenses they will face out of the way before the bye. So while the Saints and Colts in Week 14 and 15 are not ideal opponents during the fantasy playoffs, Johnson is good enough and will demand enough attention that Britt and Jared Cook should still be useful in fantasy.

AFC West

 Denver Broncos
Age Totals OAK CIN TEN GB SD bye MIA DET OAK KC NYJ SD MIN CHI NE BUF
 
QB Kyle Orton 28 2135 220 180 210 165 250 235 200 100 190 155 230 0 0 0 0
TD 9 1 1 2 0 2 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
INT 9 0 1 0 2 1 1 0 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Ru Yards 65 5 10 0 10 0 10 5 0 10 10 5 0 0 0 0
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
QB Tim Tebow 24 925 0 0 0 65 0 0 40 40 0 0 0 210 165 175 230
TD 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 2 1 1 1
INT 7 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 2 2 0
Ru Yards 280 15 5 15 25 5 0 10 30 10 0 35 45 20 15 50
Ru TD 5 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 1
RB Knowshon Moreno 24 975 60 75 85 35 50 70 80 105 115 20 INJ 85 45 60 90
Ru TD 6 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 INJ 1 0 0 1
Re Yards 330 25 45 10 25 30 20 30 10 30 5 INJ 25 15 15 45
Re TD 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 INJ 0 0 0 0
Rec 35 2 3 1 3 4 3 4 1 2 1 INJ 3 2 2 4
RB Willis McGahee 29 505 25 25 55 20 35 45 50 20 25 40 65 25 25 30 20
Ru TD 5 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 0
Re Yards 80 10 5 0 5 0 10 0 0 5 15 20 0 0 5 5
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 13 1 1 0 1 0 2 0 0 1 2 3 0 0 1 1
WR Brandon Lloyd 30 945 70 45 90 55 80 65 115 55 75 20 60 45 40 75 55
Re TD 7 1 0 0 0 1 0 2 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1
Rec 71 6 3 7 4 6 5 8 4 5 2 5 4 3 4 5
WR Eric Decker 24 625 50 35 45 40 60 30 25 45 25 35 55 25 60 25 70
Re TD 2 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
Rec 46 5 2 3 4 4 1 2 3 2 3 3 3 5 2 4
WR Eddie Royal 25 480 20 25 15 40 25 20 45 20 35 50 70 45 20 40 10
Re TD 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
Rec 44 2 2 1 3 2 3 4 1 3 5 6 4 2 4 2
WR David Anderson 29 200 10 10 0 55 15 30 0 0 20 15 0 10 20 15 0
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 17 1 1 0 4 1 3 0 0 2 1 0 1 2 1 0
TE Julius Thomas 23 400 35 15 50 10 40 60 25 10 0 15 25 60 10 0 45
Re TD 3 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
Rec 35 3 1 5 1 4 5 2 1 0 2 3 4 1 0 3

Impressions: Fantasy owners hoping the Broncos will provide at least one source of consistent production at the RB position may end up getting disappointed. There is no doubt Denver will be a run-heavy team this season, but the presence of noted TD vulture Willis McGahee and the pressure to keep Tim Tebow involved may do just enough to make Knowshon Moreno tough to own. For a team that will probably struggle to score points or stop their opponents from doing so themselves, the Broncos may not be able to stick with the running game for as long as they would like – especially against teams like the Packers (Week 4), Chargers (Week 5) and Lions (Week 8). Even the Raiders (Weeks 1 and 9) should be able to put up enough points to force the Broncos to the air early and often. This would seem to be good news for Kyle Orton, Brandon Lloyd and probably Eric Decker, but it’s highly doubtful we’ve heard the end of the Orton-Tebow debate even though Orton is clearly the better QB at the moment. If Denver falls out of contention early on, don’t be surprised if Tebow gets another 3-4 game run as the starter with Orton in his contract year. If that happens, the passing game loses value all around. Regardless of who is under center during the fantasy playoffs, the Broncos’ passing game shouldn’t be counted on in fantasy with home games vs. the Bears and Patriots (Weeks 14 and 15) and a likely bad-weather game in Buffalo (Week 16).

 Kansas City Chiefs
Age Totals BUF DET SD MIN IND bye OAK SD MIA DEN NE PIT CHI NYJ GB OAK
 
QB Matt Cassel 29 3490 255 335 205 230 200 300 260 185 220 215 210 185 170 220 300
TD 20 1 3 2 2 0 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 3
INT 16 1 2 0 0 1 0 2 3 0 1 1 2 0 2 1
Ru Yards 130 5 15 10 5 20 0 15 5 0 15 5 10 15 10 0
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
RB Jamaal Charles 24 1450 130 115 55 125 90 75 115 110 170 70 60 80 50 90 115
Ru TD 9 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 2 0 0 1 0 1 1
Re Yards 550 40 60 15 55 15 60 40 25 75 25 20 35 10 50 25
Re TD 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
Rec 53 4 4 2 4 3 6 3 2 4 3 4 5 2 5 2
RB Thomas Jones 33 525 55 40 25 60 25 50 20 35 45 40 15 10 50 30 25
Ru TD 5 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 0
Re Yards 70 10 0 5 5 0 10 5 0 5 10 0 10 0 10 0
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 12 1 0 1 1 0 2 1 0 1 2 0 2 0 1 0
RB Le’Ron McClain 26 115 0 5 10 5 0 10 15 10 25 5 5 10 0 0 15
Ru TD 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Re Yards 80 5 0 5 0 15 0 5 0 15 0 15 5 5 0 10
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 14 1 0 1 0 2 0 1 0 2 0 2 2 1 0 2
WR Dwayne Bowe 26 1060 80 150 30 50 35 105 70 45 60 65 90 70 15 75 120
Re TD 9 1 2 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 1
Rec 75 4 11 3 4 3 7 5 3 5 4 6 6 1 5 8
WR Steve Breaston 28 625 60 55 80 40 55 30 75 30 INJ INJ 50 40 55 30 25
Re TD 3 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 INJ INJ 0 1 0 0 0
Rec 54 4 3 6 3 5 3 6 2 INJ INJ 4 5 6 3 4
WR Jonathan Baldwin 22 435 15 35 20 25 15 25 20 65 10 70 20 0 45 20 50
Re TD 2 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 28 1 2 2 2 1 2 1 3 1 5 1 0 2 2 3
TE Tony Moeaki 24 670 45 35 50 55 65 70 45 20 55 45 15 25 40 35 70
Re TD 4 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1
Rec 55 3 2 4 4 6 4 4 2 4 5 3 2 4 3 5

Impressions: Much like people used to say former University of North Carolina head basketball coach Dean Smith was the only person who could stop Michael Jordan, there doesn’t appear to be many people besides HC Todd Haley who should keep Jamaal Charles from setting career highs across the board this season. For most RBs, Weeks 12-15 would be enough reason to steer clear of that player, but Charles is so electric that he will probably perform like a RB1 in two of those four games. Outside of those four aforementioned games, owners of Charles should like what they see the rest of the time. The same assessment could be made about Cassel and Bowe, although I tend to believe the loss of OC Charlie Weis will be felt more than once this season in the passing game. While some of that loss will be offset by the acquisitions of Steve Breaston and Jonathan Baldwin, it should be noted that 20 of Cassel’s 27 passing scores and 11 of Bowe’s 15 scores came against the some of the worst pass defenses in the league that call the AFC South and NFC West home last season. There’s a pretty good chance the AFC East and NFC North won’t be near that forgiving in 2011.

 Oakland Raiders
Age Totals DEN BUF NYJ NE HOU CLE KC bye DEN SD MIN CHI MIA GB DET KC
 
QB Jason Campbell 29 3375 200 185 140 255 250 205 280 295 190 250 130 265 205 315 210
TD 16 1 2 0 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 0 1 0 2 1
INT 15 1 0 3 1 0 1 0 0 2 1 1 0 2 0 3
Ru Yards 195 25 10 5 20 15 5 15 10 0 25 5 20 10 15 15
Ru TD 2 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
RB Darren McFadden 24 1025 100 125 30 40 INJ INJ 135 150 85 110 55 INJ 35 85 75
Ru TD 8 1 2 0 0 INJ INJ 1 2 0 1 0 INJ 0 1 0
Re Yards 520 30 25 45 65 INJ INJ 55 75 30 75 15 INJ 15 70 20
Re TD 2 0 1 0 0 INJ INJ 0 1 0 0 0 INJ 0 0 0
Rec 50 4 2 6 6 INJ INJ 7 5 3 6 2 INJ 2 4 3
RB Michael Bush 27 710 40 30 30 65 85 90 20 60 25 35 25 90 55 35 25
Ru TD 6 0 0 0 1 1 2 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0
Re Yards 140 10 0 10 5 15 5 0 5 15 10 0 20 35 5 5
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 21 1 0 2 1 3 1 0 1 2 1 0 3 4 1 1
WR Louis Murphy 24 650 40 55 25 45 60 60 35 10 25 50 40 75 55 45 30
Re TD 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 48 4 4 2 4 5 3 2 1 2 4 2 3 5 5 2
WR Jacoby Ford 24 845 20 35 0 85 65 80 110 70 35 50 25 45 55 85 85
Re TD 5 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1
Rec 54 1 2 0 6 4 6 5 6 3 4 1 3 4 5 4
WR Denarius Moore 22 450 35 20 40 0 75 15 20 60 0 25 40 70 0 35 15
Re TD 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
Rec 21 1 1 2 0 2 1 2 4 0 1 1 3 0 2 1
WR Darrius Heyward-Bey 24 240 10 15 0 10 15 25 35 15 20 10 0 15 25 15 30
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 19 1 1 0 1 1 2 2 1 2 1 0 1 2 1 3
TE Kevin Boss 27 530 55 35 20 45 20 20 25 60 65 30 10 40 20 60 25
Re TD 5 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 0
Rec 49 5 3 2 4 2 2 2 5 4 3 1 4 3 6 3

Impressions: In my opinion, very few teams took such an under-the-radar step back this offseason than the Raiders. The loss of Tom Cable and his blocking schemes to Seattle will be felt, but his absence could have been overcome much easier had Oakland held onto Zach Miller, who followed Cable to the Pacific Northwest. Miller was replaced by Kevin Boss – a move that may actually help improve Darren McFadden and Michael Bush but set the team back a bit in the passing game. While Boss is no slouch, the Raiders couldn’t afford to lose Jason Campbell’s best receiver, especially with Jacoby Ford being the biggest threat at WR. While Ford may see his fantasy usefulness – at least from a consistency standpoint – end shortly after the Week 8 bye, I do believe Boss is in a good enough situation to finish the season as a top 10-15 TE. Boss could bottom out with a tough stretch of games from Week 12-14, but there are enough greens to use him up until that point. As for the running game, McFadden should lead the league in rushing after two weeks with seemingly easy matchups against the Broncos and Bills. However, the rest of pre-bye schedule should be much more challenging. After the break, I believe there are some unlikely good matchups for Oakland, which abused the Chargers’ vaunted defense twice last season and also victimized Kansas City’s improving defense twice as well. Minnesota is no longer an elite run-stopping team, so what appeared to be a poor second-half schedule at first glance might not be so bad after all.

 San Diego Chargers
Age Totals MIN NE KC MIA DEN bye NYJ KC GB OAK CHI DEN JAX BUF BAL DET
 
QB Philip Rivers 29 4375 320 310 270 305 255 200 280 315 355 195 330 335 275 240 390
TD 30 3 1 2 3 2 0 1 2 3 0 2 2 4 2 3
INT 10 0 1 1 0 1 1 2 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 1
Ru Yards 55 5 5 0 5 0 0 10 5 0 10 0 0 0 10 5
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
RB Ryan Mathews 24 950 80 35 55 65 110 35 45 INJ 110 70 130 15 105 30 65
Ru TD 7 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 INJ 2 0 2 0 1 0 0
Re Yards 190 15 5 25 0 10 15 5 INJ 20 10 15 5 40 5 20
Re TD 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 INJ 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
Rec 23 2 1 3 0 2 1 1 INJ 3 1 1 1 3 2 2
RB Mike Tolbert 25 670 35 30 50 35 70 45 70 55 15 45 20 75 35 45 45
Ru TD 8 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 1
Re Yards 205 10 15 20 25 5 10 10 15 0 40 5 15 5 15 15
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 26 1 2 3 2 1 2 1 3 0 3 1 2 1 2 2
RB Jordan Todman 21 105 10 0 10 0 15 5 10 0 10 5 10 10 5 0 15
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Re Yards 40 0 0 5 10 0 0 5 0 10 5 0 0 5 0 0
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 8 0 0 1 2 0 0 1 0 2 1 0 0 1 0 0
WR Vincent Jackson 28 1240 105 130 40 80 85 35 75 80 140 50 55 115 55 65 130
Re TD 8 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 2 0 0 0 1 0 2
Rec 71 4 8 3 5 4 2 5 4 10 4 3 7 2 4 6
WR Malcom Floyd 29 660 65 20 65 35 50 20 90 55 50 20 70 35 INJ 40 45
Re TD 4 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 INJ 1 0
Rec 40 4 2 4 2 3 1 5 2 3 2 4 3 INJ 3 2
WR Vincent Brown 22 600 35 40 70 25 15 50 35 55 35 15 55 45 35 40 50
Re TD 3 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0
Rec 46 2 3 5 2 1 5 4 5 2 2 3 3 2 4 3
WR Patrick Crayton 32 330 10 25 10 30 20 20 15 35 10 15 20 40 10 25 45
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 30 2 3 1 3 2 2 1 3 1 2 2 2 1 2 3
TE Antonio Gates 31 1110 80 75 35 100 70 50 45 75 90 40 110 80 125 50 85
Re TD 12 2 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 2 0 1
Rec 79 6 5 2 8 5 5 3 3 8 4 10 4 7 4 5

Impressions: Outside of a possible Week 7 hiccup against the Jets, owners should be ecstatic to own Philip Rivers, Vincent Jackson and Antonio Gates. Much like Tom Brady and Manning, very few opponents qualify as difficult matchups for the Rivers. Unlike Manning and Brady, when Rivers isn’t picking apart a defense, he is throwing the ball over the top to his two 6-5 receivers or to his equally tall All-Pro TE. Baltimore (Week 15) is not an ideal matchup during the fantasy playoffs, but all in all, few teams should post bigger fantasy numbers in the passing game during the second half of the season. The running game is not so lucky, at least after the bye. There’s a good chance owners of Ryan Mathews and/or Mike Tolbert may be able to enjoy a nice three-game run from Weeks 12-14, but I’m expecting just about every other opponent following the break to field a good to excellent run defense. But there’s more here than meets the eye – the RB picture is every bit as unsettled right now as it was at the end of last season each back’s roles are pretty well defined already. First of all, it’s difficult to project Mathews when he is already having injury issues, so Mike Tolbert becomes a mandatory handcuff – at the very least – once again. In fact, if Mathews’ problems continue much longer, Tolbert may actually be the preferred option for drafters by the end of the month.

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Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006, appeared in USA Today’s Fantasy Football Preview magazine in each of the last two seasons and served as a weekly fantasy football analyst for 106.7 The Fan in Washington, D.C. this past season. He is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. You can also follow him on Twitter.