In this day and age, I find it amazing that such a small percentage of fantasy owners acknowledge the importance of the opponent when it comes to projecting player performance. Somewhere along with the five aforementioned factors (plus countless more), I believe predictive schedule analysis – when used correctly – provides a huge advantage over the competition. Any veteran fantasy football owner knows it is nearly pointless to use last season's numbers as the main indicator of how a defense will fare this season, which is a big reason I usually go to the trouble of analyzing defense like I have in the past. However, much as I have stated in recent weeks, the lockout threw everyone’s offseason preparation out the window and I was no different in that respect. Therefore, much of what you will see below is a combination of subjective opinion (which ranges from the respect I have for the defensive coordinator to a defense’s offseason additions to how a player fared against a similar defense in the past. It will also include the potential for player growth given his age and experience in the system). As you can see, this analysis is not for the faint of heart…

Among many other factors, the analysis I will provide over the next two weeks is based on the notion that owners would rather have their running backs facing the likes of the Carolina Panthers than the Pittsburgh Steelers or their quarterbacks and receivers taking on the Jacksonville Jaguars as opposed to the New York Jets; I believe this is particularly important during the fantasy playoffs. While many fantasy owners will question that it is nearly impossible to predict any part of the season – much less the end – when games haven’t even been played yet, I would counter with the argument that the defenses of team like the Steelers, Jets and Green Bay Packers have given us enough over the last few years to earn the benefit of doubt when it comes to avoiding players that must face those teams late in the year.

Before we continue, let me clear up any possible misconceptions. Schedule analysis:

1. is not a strength of schedule metric that relies on 2010 results to predict this season and
2. is part of the method I use to project a player’s performance, but far from the only determining factor I use.

Furthermore, I do not use the PSAs to justify taking a non-elite player over a tier-one player. Tier-one players are “cornerstone players” – players who perform well in just about every situation against just about any defense, in large part because a tier-one player is almost always the centerpiece of his team’s offense. Tier-two players and all the players below them often do not have life quite as easy and, thus, are more affected by factors such as playing time and the schedule. It is for these “other” players that I feel like schedule analysis helps the most, to identify what non-elite players heading into 2010 have a chance to take the next step, especially around fantasy playoff time. While the schedule is far from the only thing that matters when projecting NFL player performance, I feel it is foolish to suggest that it doesn’t play a significant role.

While pondering each of the factors I have already mentioned in my analysis of a player, I also consider factors such as home vs. away and the likelihood of bad weather games late in the season. In the end, however, projecting player performance is an art, not a science. There are many different ways to reach the same (or similar) conclusion; I just prefer to show my homework and have found that it is much easier to project a player more accurately when I force myself to evaluate each player on a game-by-game basis.

Much like any projection “system”, each year gives me the opportunity to tweak and hopefully improve the product. In my never-ending quest to make my PSAs and Big Boards the best draft preparation guides I can, I have made a few tweaks that I want to share with you. Most notably, I have added a yellow highlight to my matchup-color family to further help drafters make informed decisions about the players and their matchups. Here’s a quick explanation of each:

Red – A very difficult matchup. For lower-level players, a red matchup means they should not be considered in fantasy. For a second- or third-tier player, don’t expect much and drop your expectations for them at least one grade that week (i.e. from WR2 to WR3). For elite players, expect them to perform like an average player at his position.

Yellow – Keep expectations fairly low in this matchup. For lower-level players, a yellow matchup is a borderline start at best. For a second- or third-tier player, they can probably overcome the matchup if things fall right. For the elite players, expect slightly better than average production from them in this matchup.

Grey – Basically, this matchup is one that could go either way. In some cases, I just don’t feel like I have a good feel yet for this defense. Generally speaking, white matchups are winnable matchups for all levels of players.

Green – It doesn’t get much better than this. The stage is basically set for a player with a green matchup to exploit; it’s up to him to take advantage.

Another major change I will mention here is the way I went about labeling red, yellow or green matchups. This year, I went to great lengths to take into account such factors as home field, bad weather and a whole host of other minor factors that might take too long to explain here. Very few defenses (the Steelers and the Jets) have earned the right to warrant reds against almost every offense, but other teams that may not actually have the greatest defense (teams such as the Colts, Chiefs and Seahawks) but have been awarded yellows and reds because of the respect I have for their home fields and/or the way their home field suits their personnel. Also, I’m aware of only two defenses right now that plan to employ “shadow” CBs (the Jets’ Darrelle Revis and the Ravens’ Jimmy Smith), so top receivers that used to get downgraded for going against CBs like Nnamdi Asomugha or Johnathan Joseph will no longer receive an automatic red because coordinators will often put their best receivers in situations that don’t require them to face those top defensive backs.

I have also added a column to the right of each player’s name that lists the player’s age as of September 1, 2011, with the idea being that drafters like to have that information at their disposal when making a tiebreaking decision between multiple players. And finally, I feel I have done a good job this year at making sure my game-by-game projections more accurately reflect actual game totals than before. What I mean by this is that even the most elite players will have dramatic fluctuations in their actual numbers from game to game, so my game-by-game projections should reflect that.

Notes:

1) The grey highlight in each team’s schedule reflects a road game.

2) These are my initial projections and therefore subject to change. In some cases, these changes will be dramatic as I do put a fair amount of stock into preseason action.

3) For all those readers whose eyes gravitate immediately to the player’s final numbers: they are 15-game totals because most fantasy seasons have a Week 16 title game.

For those unfamiliar with the way I project player stats and individual week-to-week consistency (or for those who need a refresher), please give this article a read for an introductory course in Preseason Schedule Analysis.

AFC EAST

Impressions: Based off of last year’s fantasy points allowed vs. RB table, it appears the Bills may be getting off easy. I don’t think so. I believe middling fantasy run defenses from last year like the Chiefs and Patriots will be much improved while teams like the Eagles (offseason upgrades) and Cowboys (new DC Rob Ryan) will boost their abilities to stop the run as well. The Giants (one game), Dolphins and Jets (both two games) were both in the top ten vs. opposing RBs and don’t figure to drop off at all. Already, I have listed nine of the 15 teams Fred Jackson must face. With the high likelihood that C.J. Spiller will grab a few more carries from the 30-year-old than he did last year, it’s hard to “pound the table” for one of the league’s most underrated players despite entering this season with the promise he will like likely surpass his career high of 284 touches from 2009. As for the passing game, I think this is where defensive coordinators make the biggest difference. In the first four weeks of the season, the Bills must match wits with the Chiefs’ Romeo Crennel, the Patriots’ Bill Belichick and the Bengals’ Mike Zimmer – each of whom is among the top of their profession. It doesn’t get any easier the rest of the season either with only Washington (Week 8) and Tennessee (Week 13) leaping off the page at me as potential big-game opportunities for this offense. And just in case a home date in Denver looked easy in Week 16, remember how awful the weather can be in northern New York in late December.

Impressions: Much like the Bills, the Dolphins don’t benefit much from fantasy perspective since they both play four games each year against Rex Ryan and Belichick-coached defenses. And again, just like Buffalo, the first four games of the season for Miami are no cakewalk. Houston figures to be much improved with DC Wade Phillips and his track record for turning around defenses while Browns’ DC Dick Jauron usually has one of the more fundamentally-sound defenses in the league. Actually, for both the passing and running game, only a home game vs. Denver in Week 7 looks appealing for multiple offensive players. The back end of the schedule – starting in Week 10 with Washington – may offer some relief and give the owners of Thomas and Marshall something to look forward to since the Redskins, Bills (twice) and Raiders all either lost key talents/coaches from their defenses or still clearly in a rebuilding phase on that side of the ball.

Impressions: The Patriots are not like most other teams. For example, while other teams try to force their offensive philosophy in every game they play, New England adapts. If they are facing the Steelers, why bother pounding away against their base defense when Pittsburgh doesn’t have five players that can cover the Patriots’ five best receivers and/or tight ends? Thus, really one opponent needs to be considered a difficult matchup for the passing game when New England plays – the Jets. And the reasons for that should be fairly obvious. The only other potential matchup that could give me a bit of pause right now would be the Eagles, who have enough depth right now at all the cover positions (CB, LB, S) to pretty much matchup with whatever formation the Patriots may line up in throughout the game. New England’s running game is highly underrated, in large part because of its heavy committee approach, but last year marked the fifth straight season that it finished in the top 10 for fantasy points. Because the Patriots’ offensive attack from week to week is so matchup-based (as opposed to blindly attacking a defense with the offense’s best weapon as some teams seem to do), the running game’s success can sometimes take a back seat to the passing game for the first three quarters, only to make up for it in the fourth quarter trying to run out the clock with a two-score lead.

Impressions: Fantasy owners should have a pretty good idea about how good Shonn Greene will be around Week 3. There’s no doubt in mind that when Rob Ryan’s Cowboys defense takes on his brother’s team in Week 1, it will be all about shutting down the run. Jacksonville should have an improved defense as well and I tend to believe Oakland’s front seven will round into form as a decent run-stopping unit this season. If Greene hasn’t had a game of note by that point, it may not come until after the bye with road games vs. the Ravens and Patriots in Weeks 4-5 followed by two home games against top 10 fantasy run defenses from a season ago in Miami and San Diego. After that, Greene owners should enjoy life for about a five-week stretch before a difficult fantasy playoff stretch of teams that should have the depth and schemes to force the Jets to pass the ball in order to win. As for Sanchez & Co., only three teams on their fantasy schedule strike me as difficult matchups at the moment – the Chargers (Week 7), Eagles (Week 15) and Giants (Week 16) – because each of them have the depth to withstand injuries and match up well with the likes of Holmes, Burress, Mason, Keller and even Kerley.

AFC NORTH

Impressions: Whether or not the Ravens are ready to admit it or not, every key offensive move so far points in the same direction – get the ball to Ray Rice. In one offseason, Baltimore waved goodbye to the two most likely players to steal any touches from Rice, although they did add Ricky Williams just before press time. Then, the team cut loose a 60-catch receiver (Derrick Mason) and will try to replace him with two rookies. Finally, two second-year TEs will attempt to replace Todd Heap, who caught 40 balls last season and was one of Joe Flacco’s most trusted red zone targets. What this means is that Boldin may be force-fed the ball when the Ravens need a big play in the passing game and Rice will be the next in line when Boldin isn’t open. Therefore, Boldin is a good bet to return to 80 catches and Rice should have a decent shot to match his 77 receptions from 2009. And the schedule should cooperate with both players as they should only have one stout defense to face after Week 9 (San Diego in Week 15), although Seattle on the road in Week 10 could be a sneaky difficult matchup. Rice will most likely get off to a difficult start – not only because of the schedule but the way OC Cam Cameron uses his main RB early in the season, but he should be on his way to a 1,900-2,000 total yard season thereafter. As for Boldin, the best CBs he may see after Week 6 are Ike Taylor (Week 9), Leon Hall (Week 11) and the Chargers’ CBs (Week 15). None of these players are “shadow” CBs nor are they good enough to shut down a healthy Boldin all game long.

Impressions: Whereas owners of Ray Rice and Anquan Boldin might be in a bit of a panic after one month, Bengals’ players sure look like good sell-high candidates early in the season, at least prior to their Week 7 bye. Cincinnati’s first five opponents all feature defenses that are undergoing scheme changes (the first three) or teams that have significant weaknesses that can be exploited (Bills and Jags), even by an offense that will be just picking up the nuances of OC Jay Gruden’s West Coast offense. The Bengals even get the Colts at home, which means they will be less prone to the fast track at Lucas Oil Stadium that makes the Colts’ pass rush so frightening. After that, it is mostly bad news for the running and passing game, but especially for the former. Seattle is always tough at home and then, after a road game in Nashville, the Bengals face the Ravens and Steelers three times over the next four weeks. The fantasy playoffs look easy for Benson based on last season’s fantasy points allowed vs. RBs numbers, but I expect Houston’s and Arizona’s run defense to be significantly better and the Rams were already tough at home in 2010 before the additions they made in free agency and through the draft. This would typically be good news for a Carson Palmer-led offense, but I don’t expect Dalton to pull a Sam Bradford and win the battle of wits against the likes of Dick LeBeau, Wade Phillips or Steve Spagnuolo all that often.

Impressions: Fans of Peyton Hillis this season may be in the process of dodging one bullet with Montario Hardesty’s continued knee woes, but unlike last season, Cleveland has another alternative in Brandon Jackson and probably the most difficult fantasy playoff stretch of any RB. The Browns acknowledged they asked too much of Hillis last season, so even if Hardesty cannot play at all again this season, his absence should not lead to a long stretch of 25-touch games for Hillis this season, in all likelihood. And don’t think for a second this doesn’t hurt Hillis in fantasy, because much of his value last season came from the fact that he owned 79% of the touches that came out of the Browns’ backfield in 2010. Asking him to post the same kind of numbers against a slightly more difficult schedule in a new offense with fewer touches is obviously not a recipe for fantasy success. While it could be argued the 2011 edition of the Browns’ passing game isn’t much different than Pat Shurmur’s 2010 Rams, Colt McCoy is not Sam Bradford and the receivers aren’t any better than the ones the new coach had in St. Louis. Even against an “easy” passing game schedule, Cleveland would not feature a lot of fantasy options, but it’s hard to argue that any WR in this offense should grace an owner’s regular lineup in fantasy again this season. However, the case could be made for Watson as his athleticism is a good fit in the West Coast offense (and thus, a low-end TE1 candidate), but outside of him, only Greg Little should be drafted in typical 12-team leagues.

Impressions: Perhaps the best thing I can say about the Steelers’ schedule is that it appears the toughest competition appears in the early part of the season. Each of Pittsburgh’s five road games should be difficult matchups, but its own defense will make sure the running game will get the obligatory 25-30 rushes per game and keep the game close enough for Roethlisberger to win it at the end. The only matchup to avoid is Baltimore (Week 1 and Week 9), but that does not apply to Mendenhall – who will almost certainly get his touches - or Wallace. I’m not crazy about Week 8 vs. New England either, but again, Mendenhall and Wallace cannot be benched in fantasy. The same cannot be said about Ward and Roethlisberger, although both should be in just about every fantasy lineup except for the Ravens’ contests. The fantasy playoff schedule looks to line up nicely for all parties involved as none of the final three teams on the schedule have a player who can match up well with Wallace nor do any of these teams figure to have stout run defenses. Furthermore, two of those games are at Heinz Field, which means the last difficult matchup the Steelers will have – run or pass – may be at Arrowhead Stadium vs. the Chiefs in Week 12.

AFC South