Before we continue, let me clear up any possible misconceptions. Schedule analysis:

1. is not a strength of schedule metric that relies on 2010 results to predict this season and
2. is part of the method I use to project a player’s performance, but far from the only determining factor I use.

Furthermore, I do not use the PSAs to justify taking a non-elite player over a tier-one player. Tier-one players are “cornerstone players” – players who perform well in just about every situation against just about any defense, in large part because a tier-one player is almost always the centerpiece of his team’s offense. Tier-two players and all the players below them often do not have life quite as easy and, thus, are more affected by factors such as playing time and the schedule. It is for these “other” players that I feel like schedule analysis helps the most, to identify what non-elite players heading into 2010 have a chance to take the next step, especially around fantasy playoff time. While the schedule is far from the only thing that matters when projecting NFL player performance, I feel it is foolish to suggest that it doesn’t play a significant role.

While pondering each of the factors I have already mentioned in my analysis of a player, I also consider factors such as home vs. away and the likelihood of bad weather games late in the season. In the end, however, projecting player performance is an art, not a science. There are many different ways to reach the same (or similar) conclusion; I just prefer to show my homework and have found that it is much easier to project a player accurately when I force myself to evaluate each one on a game-by-game basis. Much like any projection “system”, each year gives me the opportunity to tweak and hopefully improve the product. In my never-ending quest to make my PSAs and Big Boards the best draft preparation guides I can, I have made a few tweaks that I want to share with you. Most notably, I have added a yellow highlight to my matchup-color family to further help drafters make informed decisions about the players and their matchups. Here’s a quick explanation of each:

Red – A very difficult matchup. For lower-level players, a red matchup means they should not be considered in fantasy. For a second- or third-tier player, don’t expect much and drop your expectations for them at least one grade that week (i.e. from WR2 to WR3). For elite players, expect them to perform like an average player at his position.

Yellow – Keep expectations fairly low in this matchup. For lower-level players, a yellow matchup is a borderline start at best. For a second- or third-tier player, they can probably overcome the matchup if things fall right. For the elite players, expect slightly better than average production from them in this matchup.

Grey – Basically, this matchup is one that could go either way. In some cases, I just don’t feel like I have a good feel yet for this defense. Generally speaking, white matchups are winnable matchups for all levels of players.

Green – It doesn’t get much better than this. The stage is basically set for a player with a green matchup to exploit; it’s up to him to take advantage.

Another major change I will mention here is the way I went about labeling red, yellow or green matchups. This year, I went to great lengths to take into account such factors as home field, bad weather and a whole host of other minor factors that might take too long to explain here. Very few defenses (the Steelers and the Jets) have earned the right to warrant reds against almost every offense, but other teams that may not actually have the greatest defense (teams such as the Colts, Chiefs and Seahawks) have been awarded yellows and reds because of the respect I have for their home fields and/or the way their home field suits their personnel. Also, since the Jets’ Darrelle Revis is the only “shadow” CB of note in the league right now, top receivers that used to get downgraded for going against CBs like Nnamdi Asomugha or Johnathan Joseph will no longer receive an automatic red because offensive coordinators often put their best receivers in situations that don’t require them to face another team’s top defensive backs while most defensive coordinators nowadays tend to leave their cornerbacks on one side or the other.

I have also added a column to the right of each player’s name that lists the player’s age as of September 1, 2011, with the idea being that drafters like to have that information at their disposal when making a tiebreaking decision between multiple players. And finally, I feel I have done a good job this year at making sure my game-by-game projections more accurately reflect actual game totals than before. What I mean by this is that even the most elite players will have dramatic fluctuations in their actual numbers from week to week, so my game-by-game projections should reflect that.

As most of you know by now, the purpose of all this work is to arrive at my Big Board, which is the same tool I use in my drafts and should be ready before the weekend. Much like team-by-team breakdowns this year, I believe I have made some positive yet subtle changes to the Big Board that will allow me to rank players easier.

Notes:

1) The grey highlight in each team’s schedule reflects a road game.

2) These are my initial projections and therefore subject to change. In some cases, these changes will be dramatic as I do put a fair amount of stock into preseason action.

3) For all those readers whose eyes gravitate immediately to the player’s final numbers: they are 15-game totals because most fantasy seasons have a Week 16 title game.

4) Because of the abbreviated offseason, a few of these projections may change dramatically as my questions about scheme fits and the like get answered during preseason action; even the color of some of these matchups may change. However, any change I make to the final numbers or color of matchup will be reflected on my Big Boards in the coming weeks.

For those unfamiliar with the way I project player stats and individual week-to-week consistency (or for those who need a refresher), please give this article a read for an introductory course in Preseason Schedule Analysis. (I have made several changes to my PSA since I introduced it back in 2008, but the basis for how I build my player projections is pretty much the same.)

NFC EAST

Impressions: As if it isn’t obvious from the chart above, I believe the Cowboys should be airing it out this season. While the three new starters up front probably represent a sizable upgrade in talent, Dallas probably did more to shore up its pass protection than it did to improve the running game with the changes. But more than that, the team has yet to lean on Felix Jones for an entire season nor does it seem interested in handing Tashard Choice any consistent role in the offense. Since DeMarco Murray’s game is a lot like Jones’ – with his durability in question as well – it would seem that owners would be wise to sell high on Jones if he can put together consecutive solid fantasy performances since consistency may be hard to come by and the final quarter of the schedule doesn’t seem overly welcoming to a team that may not be all that committed to running the ball anyway. On the other hand, the passing game may be the most prolific in the league this season if the starters can stay healthy. Outside of Week 1 (where I believe the Jets’ Revis will match up against Dez Bryant), I don’t see a team on the schedule that has two cornerbacks AND a safety/linebacker capable of holding Miles Austin, Bryant and Jason Witten down for any length of time. As I alluded to earlier, the front five should allow Tony Romo more time than last year’s unit did. Much like the running game, the fantasy playoff stretch would give me a bit of pause, but not so much that I would I sit/trade any of the key four players (Romo, Austin, Bryant and Witten) if I owned them during the second half of the season.

Impressions: If there is one offense where matchups may not mean a whole lot this season, it could be the Eagles. From DeSean Jackson’s ability to run past coverage to Michael Vick’s ability to turn a broken play into an explosive play, there will few weeks where this team will struggle to score at least 24 points. Outside of the two red highlights that appear for each player in Weeks 9 and 15, I would argue that every other game has a good chance to be a fantasy owner’s dream for this offense. With that said, I would keep expectations low the first three weeks with road games vs. St. Louis and Atlanta and a home game against the Giants – each of which have enough athletes on defense now to give the Eagles some problems. And as good as it looks right now, this Philadelphia offense could lose steam very quickly if Jeremy Maclin is unable to return to camp soon and Steve Smith is forced to start the season out on the PUP list. (In case you are wondering, I’m not ready to include Smith in my projections until I have more information about his recovery.) The Eagles would still have the depth to overcome those short-term losses, but there is no doubt the offense would suffer. As long as Vick is healthy, consider McCoy to be one of the best fantasy backs around. Much like Brian Westbrook became matchup-proof in his later years as an Eagle, McCoy is poised to do the very same thing in his third season. For an owner who wants his RB1 to get a lot of touches, McCoy may frustrate from time to time because HC Andy Reid is so infatuated with the passing game. But it is his value as a receiver – particularly in PPR leagues – that make McCoy a no-brainer every-week play in fantasy for the foreseeable future.

Impressions: There are some of these teams that are fun to project…and then there are teams like the Redskins. In addition to the usual backfield committee approach HC Mike Shanahan seems to hand us each season, he decided to make it even better this season by giving us the same thing at QB. But let’s discuss the runners first. A little over a month after the draft, the Washington Post suggested that Roy Helu reminds Shanahan of a young Clinton Portis. Shortly after the lockout, Washington traded for Tim Hightower, calling him a third-down back upon his arrival. About two weeks later, Hightower has supposedly entrenched himself as the starter. And so it goes with Shanahan and his RBs. Thankfully, owners looking for a reason to avoid Shanahan’s backfield can point to the back end of the schedule as a reason to do so. One could make the case that a Washington RB may not have a good matchup over the final seven games if I end up being wrong about Minnesota becoming just an average run defense in 2011. Hightower should be a nice PPR flex play – for the most part – but owners have a right to be weary of trusting him for due to his past fumbling issues and Shanny’s reputation for a quick hook. If you do roll the dice with him, a good time to sell may be after Week 8 when he has a great chance at posting two solid games vs. Carolina and Buffalo. Moving on to the passing game, the John Beck-Rex Grossman should serve as the ultimate test of Shanahan’s mettle with QBs since he has already stated that he is willing to “stake his reputation” on either player. Chris Cooley’s knee injury further makes this passing attack even more questionable, although Fred Davis is one of the better backup TEs in the league and a viable late-round fantasy option should Cooley miss any time during the season. For the most part though, Santana Moss’ value and role hasn’t changed much from last season and he has the kind of schedule which should allow him to be a strong WR2 performer in PPR leagues (or WR3 in non-PPR). Otherwise, there are just a lot of names to put on fantasy watch lists for now. Given the QB situation, it’s hard to imagine more than two players (Moss and Cooley/Davis) performing at a high-enough level consistently to warrant starting consideration.

NFC NORTH

Note: Keep an eye out for undrafted free agent WR Dane Sanzenbacher and free agent pickup Sam Hurd. One or both players may be able to carve out some value ahead of Earl Bennett.

Impressions: This Lions’ offense may be very well turn out to be the fantasy equivalent of an old flame – riddled with imperfections but so tempting because when the “warts” are not present, it has the potential to be so good. What do I mean? The warts of which I speak are the durability concerns of just about every key player on this offense (Matthew Stafford, Jahvid Best and even Calvin Johnson – to a lesser extent) and an offensive line that was weak last season and inexplicably not addressed this offseason. On the other hand, this team is built to play indoors on turf and will be lethal when everybody is healthy for a home game at Ford Field. Let’s first discuss my early favorite for fantasy breakout player of the year – Best. In the two games where he was healthy last season, Best was simply amazing. Much like Arian Foster last season, Best will have very little real competition for backfield touches since promising rookie Mikel Leshoure was lost for the season. Of the teams on this schedule, only the Bears (Weeks 5 and 10), Saints (Week 13) and Chargers (Week 16) figure to have the speed and athleticism to bottle him up, but two of those games are at home. And let’s not forget that despite being healthy for just those two games, Best still managed to catch 58 passes last season. Just about everything I just stated about the running game carries over pretty well to the passing game, where Johnson doesn’t have a matchup that he can’t defeat. And if Johnson isn’t being shut down, then it would seem obvious Stafford will have a good day as well. I can say with some certainty that I am likely going all in – remembering the old flame analogy above – on this offense in 2011 and that if I have a chance at landing Johnson in the second round, Best in the third and Stafford as my QB2 in the middle rounds in my high-stakes PPR leagues, I will do it.

Impressions: The Packers are one of about a handful of teams whose key fantasy players at every position need to be in the lineup every week, almost regardless of the matchup. Aaron Rodgers will get tested right away in the season opener against the Saints’ improved defense (which should return to its ball-hawking ways this season), the Chargers (Week 8) and twice against Chicago (Weeks 3 and 16). With that said, Rodgers could explode for 250 yards and three TDs in any of those matchups and should be expected to hit those marks regularly with Green Bay’s ridiculous receiving corps. I’ll say the same thing this year as I did last year around this time – if all of his receivers and linemen stay healthy this season, we could be on the verge of witnessing one of the best individual fantasy seasons from a player, maybe ever. No defense has five defenders that can take away each of the Packers’ top four receivers and Jermichael Finley AND still account for Rodgers’ ability as a runner. The running game will likely take on a slightly different look than it has in years past since James Starks has emerged as worthy competition for Ryan Grant’s job. Recent speculation suggests that Green Bay will ride the “hot hand” in the backfield, but since Mike McCarthy became the head coach back in 2006, the team has featured one primary RB in every season. (Vernand Morency’s 91 carries in 2006 still qualifies as the most carries a Packers’ RB2 has received.) Whereas the passing game is too dynamic to be saddled with any red matchups, Green Bay will likely have difficulty establishing the run in the four aforementioned contests and may not be the best bet in a few others such as Atlanta (Week 5), Detroit (Week 12, assuming the Lions’ young DT duo is still healthy) and Kansas City (Week 15).