All Out Blitz: Volume 48
9/27/12
Aggressiveness is a characteristic that tends to reward fantasy
owners more times than not. In the NFL, an offensive line will sometimes
hold up long enough to give the quarterback enough time to beat
man coverage down the field and make the defense look foolish against
a fierce pass rush. More often than not, though, when a defense
brings the heat and forces the action, crisis management becomes
the name of the game for the opposing team.
In that same vein, I hope to apply that same kind of pressure to
the owners in all of my leagues by beating my opponents to the punch
in regards to personnel moves. Sometimes, reaching a conclusion
about a player too quickly results in making a bad situation worse.
However, coming to a correct conclusion two weeks or two minutes
quicker than your opponents is considered foresight and can often
lead to fantasy championships.
Fantasy owners can be a uneasy lot, knowing that one two-or-three-game
losing streak can wreak irreparable damage to his/her team’s
chances to make a visit to the fantasy postseason. But just as it
is in the NFL and in life, it’s hard to land the big prize
by playing scared. Thus, I will strive each week to help each of
you become a smart blitzer, so to speak.
As a general rule, those of us who write about and observe the trends
of fantasy football are best served to deal with the numbers game
and leave the “real game” to the players, coaches, officials
and NFL employees. However, there are times when we are obligated
to use our ability to connect with the “common man”
and reach the masses in order to correct a terrible wrong…or
at least keep it from happening again anytime soon.
Before we go any further, let’s keep this discussion we
are about to have in perspective. The NFL is an entertainment
business and games are merely short-term events that can sometimes
provide lasting memories. Quite often, sports – football
in particular – can serve as a metaphor for life, which
is one of the many reasons I find myself more intrigued with this
game each year. But as someone who covered the Penn State football
scandal less than a year ago, I hardly need to be reminded about
how important a nationally-televised regular-season NFL game is
in the greater scheme of things.
By now, the sports world has analyzed the end of the Green Bay-Seattle
game more than most networks will analyze the “Race to the
White House” or why the price of gas keeps increasing even
though oil companies are more efficient now than they ever have
been. Setting aside what that means for us as a society for now
and staying strictly under the scope of the NFL, how can the league
explain to the Packers how they lost on Monday night? How do we
explain to kids watching the game that such an oversight can’t
be corrected because it would “set a bad precedent”?
While that “bad precedent” argument is true in
theory, it needs to be noted that the rulebook had to be written
with the assumption that the league’s best officials are
working. I know as well as anyone that life isn’t fair
and most of us have to work like crazy to get a little ahead while
others can simply do next to nothing and reap just about every
benefit life has to offer. But should fans, players and teams
be forced to suffer the same consequences, especially considering
that their jobs are almost always on the line and this, in the
end, is just a game?
Unlike life, most sports have the benefit of wide-ranging instant
replay. While instant replay cannot fix every flaw, it can go
a long way in correcting obvious wrongs and does a good job of
doing just that. It should also be noted that while the game is
now being officiated by replacements, the current replay officials
are the regular ones and the league
even has an on-field administrator for each game to ensure the
smooth operation of each game. But here within lies the multi-layered
problem. Assuming the league is on the “right” side
of this negotiation for a second, it is trusting well over 100
rookie referees to “protect the shield” and
make pivotal game-changing calls. The replacements are expected
to maintain the same level of quality that the regular referees
provide although the former never had the benefit of a full offseason
to prepare for the NFL game. The replacements also work with the
knowledge that next week may be their final game on the big stage.
If the league is prepared to move forward with inferior officiating,
then it must also be prepared to: (a) live with a great deal of
negative publicity or (b) provide a mechanism by which the few
regular officials that are present at each game are allowed to
essentially serve as the league’s on-site quality control
people until this whole ordeal is resolved.
Just like it seemed unreasonable that millions of fans had access
to instant replay at home for years before the league realized
it needed to provide it as a tool for the officials, it seems
horribly wrong now that millions of Americans can see a game-deciding
call made right before their eyes and are still left with “the
human element” deciding the fate of the game by officials
clearly not suited to be in that position. Furthermore, the idea
that savvy football fans would not quickly notice a difference
between lower-level college officials and the ones who spend much
of their free time scouting team and player tendencies in order
to be prepared for game day smacks of extreme arrogance and indifference
on the league’s part. (If I can humor you for a second,
I have often said that I can tell you what you don’t know,
but I can’t help you if you don’t care and think you
are better than me too. I’ve seen it all too often throughout
my career and it pains me to see it so clearly now in the sport
that I love.) The other problem in play here is obviously the
league’s need to show everyone who is in charge, just as
it did last year during the lockout last season.)
Let it also be said this past weekend didn’t mark the start
of this controversy; it simply illustrated the incompetence of
the current referees for the world to see and the need to end
this stalemate to rebuild the declining integrity of the game.
Certainly, the MNF game never gets to the point of sheer outrage
if Green Bay’s Erik Walden isn’t penalized for a highly-questionable
roughing the passer call on an interception as Seattle begins
its last drive. But even beyond that call (which I’ve seen
the regular officials make a number of times) is the sheer inconsistency
in which pass interference has been enforced in recent weeks.
Obvious offensive pass interference calls are being called on
the defense, obvious defensive pass interference calls aren’t
being penalized at all and minor illegal contact calls are being
called defensive pass interference. Based on the increase of penalties
over the last two weeks, I can assure you that someone in the
league office made it clear to the replacement officials they
needed to throw more flags after a relatively tame Week 1.
Of course, the fans themselves can force an end to this stalemate
by simply refusing to give the NFL what it wants – your
money and attention – for a short period of time. While
the league and its owners have deep pockets, a quick and swift
“holdout” by the very fans that support this league
would create almost instantaneous panic from the owners. But that
is obviously a bold move…kind of like the type of gamble
the NFL made when it decided it didn’t need the best referees
to preserve the integrity of its games.
While I’m no expert when it comes to labor negotiations,
I am not exactly a novice in the area either. There are several
key issues – beautifully explained by Andrew Brandt
in the linked article – that represent the few true sticking
points keeping the league and the NFL Referees Association from
coming to some sort of an agreement. While it is not my job to
settle their dispute, I do know that if overmatched officials
are calling games, then player safety isn’t any more important
to the NFL than the outcome of games (or its reputation). If that
is the case, it is only a matter of time before a skirmish here
– which the replacement refs have been slow to react to
– or another incident there leads to yet another unnecessary
outcome, long-term injury or lawsuit for the league. And when
that happens, someone will have to answer the question: “Was
saving a few dollars and exerting our authority just because we
are the NFL really worth it?”
LATE UPDATE: Perhaps sensing
that I spent a few hours writing the 1,200+ words above, the NFL
and NFLRA reached an eight-year agreement just before my usual
deadline. Still, I feel justified to keep the introduction intact
simply to provoke thought on an issue that really should have
never reached this point.
Once is an accident, twice a coincidence and three times is a
trend. About this time every season, I think of this old saying
that has taken on many different forms over the years. After three
weeks of the fantasy season, I think we can begin to start drawing
some halfway-reasonable conclusions about how the season –
or at least the first half of it – will unfold. With that
in mind, let’s take a 32-team look at some of my early impressions
as September draws to a close.
Arizona Cardinals – Frankly, I cannot remember the last
team that was able to start 3-0 that rushed for 2.8 YPC, threw
for 181 yards/game and didn’t own a significant advantage in turnover
differential. What I do know is the Cards have quickly established
themselves as a top-five defense and have themselves a keeper
in Ryan
Williams as soon as he can learn to fully trust his surgically-repaired
knee (although it may take a while for him to be a fantasy force
with his current offensive line). We were also reminded that no
matter how dire the situation looks for a player (in this case,
Larry
Fitzgerald), offensive coordinators can usually find a way
to get their key offensive player going while defensive assignments
will get blown, like they did against the Eagles last week.
Atlanta
Falcons – It took until Week 3 for the coaching staff to
realize Jacquizz
Rodgers needs to be playing at least as many snaps as Michael
Turner. Going forward, I’d be mildly surprised if Rodgers
doesn’t see more snaps than Turner as Atlanta attempts to become
a full-fledged offensive powerhouse. Julio
Jones and Roddy
White are 1A and 1B in the passing game while Tony
Gonzalez is still the red-zone monster he has always been,
even if he can’t separate from defenders anymore. Matt
Ryan hasn’t thrown for 300 yards yet, but it is coming. (Through
three games, I predicted a line of 895-7-2 for him and he’s delivered
793-8-1 with a rushing TD for good measure.)
Baltimore Ravens – Through three weeks, the Ravens have
attempted 113 passes and 73 runs – a rate I don’t expect to change
anytime soon. It is hard to argue with the 2-1 record so far,
but despite 20 touches/game, it sure seems to me that Ray
Rice is absent from the offensive attack for long stretches
in just about every game. With Cleveland and Kansas City up next,
don’t be surprised to see him enjoy two of his finer fantasy performances
of the season. In a very unassuming way, Dennis
Pitta has been amazing. His red-zone numbers don’t jump off
the page as much as you’d expect (four targets, two receptions
and one touchdown), but his 31 targets are tied with Jimmy
Graham for most in the league by a tight end. Because he is
operating out of the slot so much and Torrey
Smith commands the respect he does, I suspect Pitta will be
a huge PPR asset the rest of the season.
Buffalo
Bills – In the Bills’ quest to “hide” Ryan
Fitzpatrick, he has been a very good fantasy quarterback and
is off to another one of his “hot” starts. However, two RBs (Fred
Jackson, C.J.
Spiller) and his favorite slot receiver (David
Nelson) have all gotten hurt in the process, so with no more
than 208 yards passing in any game so far, how much longer can
we expect the 2-3 touchdown games to continue before he experiences
another second-half swoon? My mind hasn’t changed regarding the
RB situation where I expect Jackson to assume at least half the
workload when both backs are healthy.
Carolina
Panthers – Looking back to his rookie season, Cam
Newton experienced a slow stretch from Weeks 10-12 where he
averaged 18.8 fantasy points. Right now, he’s averaging 17.3.
Newton emerged from that “slump” and closed out the fantasy season
averaging 30.25 points over the final four games (although his
two big games during last year’s stretch came against a Bucs team
that had mailed it in). What I do know is that we’ve learned that
we should never doubt Newton’s talent and competitive drive. Most
of his interceptions this season have been stupefying, but I think
it is only a matter of time before OC Rob Chudzinski and Newton
get on track. The Panthers’ use of Greg
Olsen outside the hashmarks near the end of the Giants’ game
was a good start to jump-start the offense but finding a way to
get Steve
Smith more than the four targets he’s seen in each of the
last two games will do the most to rectify this problem.
Chicago
Bears – We knew Matt
Forte was important to the running game, but is he also every
bit as important in the passing game? Jay
Cutler’s passing numbers over the last six or so quarters
would hint at that, but the quality of the opposing defense has
contributed to that as well. After next week, the schedule suggests
that Chicago’s next four games can be had through the air. At
that point, sell on Cutler. And based on what we’ve seen so far
from every defense over the second half of the schedule, I may
just recommend selling on every Bear after Week 9. I think it
is safe to say that I don’t want to count on Chicago players facing
the likes of the Texans, Niners, Seahawks, Packers and Cardinals
when my team is trying to get in position to win a fantasy championship.
Cincinnati
Bengals – Regardless of what his average number of targets
over the last two weeks might suggest, Andrew
Hawkins is becoming harder and harder to ignore and Armon
Binns isn’t too far away from joining him as a player worth
adding in 12-team leagues. It is this collection of talent – of
course, along with A.J.
Green – that made me question the Bengals’ stubbornness in
regards to the running game entering this year. Even at his size
(5-7, 175), Hawkins may force himself to become a more regular
part of the offense because of the explosive element he gives
this offense, much like Antonio
Brown did in Pittsburgh last season. Binns is the opposite
of Hawkins in a lot of ways, but he has a great shot to fill the
big-bodied possession receiver role we thought Mohamed
Sanu would occupy earlier in the summer.
Cleveland Browns – Let me get this right: HC Pat Shurmur
is threatening to bench Greg
Little for drops and replace him…with whom? Little had 14
drops as a rookie and has been charged with two more this season,
but he still represents the best receiving threat the team has.
Little wasn’t used a great deal last year before the Browns’ Week
5 bye, at which point it was determined that he would be featured.
I’d be a bit surprised if he doesn’t take off in a similar fashion
in 2012. Keep an eye out for TE Jordan
Cameron. OC Brad Childress suggested earlier in the week a
back injury was the reason Cameron – the talk of training camp
– did not see more snaps over the first two weeks.
Dallas
Cowboys – The Cowboys’ pass defense has certainly met expectations
and then some, but the jury is still out on the run defense. The
Cowboys are also very fortunate to be 2-1 with little to no help
from Dez
Bryant and Jason
Witten. While we can blame the latter’s slow start on rushing
back from his spleen injury, it sure looks like more of the same
from the former. Bryant caught all three of his second-half targets
for 47 yards, but that display was probably assisted by his sideline
shouting match with position coach Jimmy Robinson. I’m far from
a Bryant apologist, but even if he isn’t capable of running the
entire route tree the way the team wants him to, his run-after-catch
skills are undeniable. His relative lack of involvement in the
team’s gameplan in the second half of games – something that dates
back to last season – is also hard to understand. Last year, it
was supposedly a lack of conditioning. What’s the reason this
year?
Denver Broncos – Minus the two touchdowns he could have
easily had over the last two games (defensive pass interference
called both times) and another potential TD that bounced off his
hands in a crowd and landed in Joel
Dreessen’s, I’m not all that concerned about Eric
Decker. No one will question Demaryius
Thomas has more natural talent, but I believe this is a low-end
WR1 race that will go right to the end, at least in PPR leagues.
The early returns suggest that while the coaching staff has catered
to Peyton
Manning in terms of the way the offense attacks, the coaching
staff will remain make sure it remains more balanced than what
we’ve come to expect from a Manning-led offense. With the threat
of an above-average passing game and a consistent 15-20 touches
going forward against “light boxes”, I really like Willis
McGahee going forward.
Detroit
Lions – I’m at a loss trying to explain the Lions’ offensive
attack so far this season, especially their plan at running back.
Against a Rams’ defense I know I expected to be a difficult matchup
vs. the pass in Week 1, Matthew
Stafford attempted 48 passes. Against the Niners’ vaunted
run defense, Lions RBs carried the ball 22 times, more than they
had in a single game since Week 11 of last season. And then, against
a Titans’ run defense the Patriots and Chargers gashed, Mikel
LeShoure is given 26 carries in his first game back from suspension,
averages less than 4.0 YPC and is praised for his performance?
(Keep in mind, Kevin
Smith was slightly more productive on an YPC basis than Adrian
Peterson against the Niners.) And to top it off, Joique Bell
was given the crunch-time touches instead of Smith, meaning Smith
went from first-string to third-string in less than a week despite
being the best pass protector of the bunch and the player largely
responsible for their only win. Until I see one “special” quality
from LeShoure that makes him irreplaceable – including prolonged
durability – he strikes me as a sell-high candidate.
It's no time to panic if you're a Rodgers
owner.
Green
Bay Packers – I have absolutely zero concern about Aaron
Rodgers. However, if the team is as slow to react to its offensive
tackles getting beat by speed rushers as it was against Seattle,
then his durability will be a major question going forward. However,
only Houston and Arizona strike me as defenses over the next month
or so that can bottle up this passing game. My feelings on Cedric
Benson have not changed either. He’s a good zone runner, but
his ball security issues and lack of explosiveness are the qualities
that make him replaceable. Believe it or not, I’d still be stunned
if James
Starks doesn’t replace him at some point once he is fully
recovered from turf toe.
Houston
Texans – How many teams can lose two defensive staples
(Mario
Williams, DeMeco
Ryans) in the same offseason and say their defense improved?
CB Kareem
Jackson has gone from a defensive liability two seasons ago
to a serviceable corner, meaning the shadow coverage of Johnathan
Joseph isn’t wasted. J.J. Watt is probably already a top-five
DE and the OLB duo of Connor Barwin and Brooks
Reed makes it virtually impossible for an offense to stop
all three. Owners of Ben
Tate (but don’t own Arian
Foster) may be wise to hold on to him for two more weeks and
then sell. With the Titans and Jets next on the schedule, the
chances that Tate will be Foster-like in at least one of the two
games are pretty good.
Indianapolis
Colts – While Andrew
Luck has been as advertised, the ground game has been even
less productive than I expected. Donald
Brown, Mewelde
Moore and Vick
Ballard have combined to average a measly 3.0 YPC through
three games. Even worse, the three backs have caught just four
balls between them (on eight targets), making every one of them
nearly useless in just about any fantasy format. Last week, I
was convinced it was time to sell high on Reggie
Wayne, but with the season-ending injury to Austin
Collie, Wayne is well on his way to enjoying a bounceback
season. Donnie
Avery – the new No. 2 WR – is also now a reasonable fantasy
WR3 against all but the toughest defenses or teams that feature
safeties that don’t possess a lot of range. Just be careful when
planning on Avery as his injury history is every bit as extensive
– if not more so – than Collie’s.
Jacksonville
Jaguars – Three weeks into the season and there is no hint
that Maurice
Jones-Drew was the least bit affected by his holdout. Not
only is that a bit difficult for me to process, but his success
should be freeing up Marcedes
Lewis, Laurent
Robinson or Justin
Blackmon, which it is not. In fact, none of the aforementioned
Jags receivers had more than one catch in their Week 3 win over
the Colts. Much like other occurrences in the AFC South, that
level of ineptitude simply cannot continue. I will not give up
on Blackmon until after Week 7 against a pathetic Raiders secondary,
but I’m not seeing where any other Jacksonville receiver is even
worthy of a roster spot in a typical 12-team league. Blaine Gabbert’s
poor completion percentage (42.5%) over the last two weeks isn’t
helping matters, but Blackmon is clearly pressing, which isn’t
helping Gabbert. When the rookie learns to relax just a bit, I
tend to believe fantasy WR3 production in PPR leagues is still
attainable.
Kansas
City Chiefs – The last time I remember a running back running
for 200+ yards the week after he ran for less than 10 was Jerome
Harrison in 2009. While I could still break down why Harrison
was able to do what he did as if it just happened yesterday, I
cannot explain to you how a running back like Jamaal
Charles– pulled from the previous game because of a bone bruise
and who HC Romeo Crennel wondered aloud earlier that week if he
would ever return to pre-injury form – could embarrass a defense
in a game that same team could not afford to lose. And there is
no doubt in my mind that even on his 91-yard TD run that he was
not at the same speed he was pre-injury. The true test for me
is how he performs in games against the Chargers and Bucs, two
of three defenses giving up the fewest rushing yards to running
backs so far.
Miami
Dolphins – Reggie
Bush’s “bone bruise” this past weekend was a seemingly innocuous
reminder that the ex-Saint hasn’t been the most durable back throughout
his career. With that said, he’s probably at worst a RB2 in the
most difficult matchups – of which there are few left on his schedule
– and a low-end RB1 in PPR leagues. (Of course, that is pretty
much reaffirming what most of us suspected in the preseason.)
While it is encouraging that any Dolphins’ receiver finds himself
in the top 12 of targets at his position (29), it doesn’t say
a great deal about the chemistry Brian Hartline has with Ryan
Tannehill since he has turned just 13 of those into receptions.
Move along.
Minnesota
Vikings – Toby
Gerhart fumbled three times – losing two – over the last three-plus
minutes in last week’s shocker vs. the Niners. This alone may
ensure that Adrian Peterson remains a 20-carry back, whether or
not it is a good idea for him to maintain that kind of load. I
also don’t expect to be changing my mind anytime soon regarding
his upcoming schedule or his prospects about turning in another
AP-like season. Thankfully, OC Bill Musgrave has seen the light
in regards to his key passing game weapons in Percy
Harvin (who has been extremely efficient with 27 receptions
on 32 targets) and Kyle
Rudolph (who just missed out on consecutive two-touchdown
performances). Both are top-10 fantasy options at their position
going forward.
New
England Patriots – I recognize that Stevan
Ridley fans were disappointed after last week’s 13-carry performance,
but there isn’t much reason for panic here as most of us knew
that HC Bill Belichick can pull the “matchup card” on fantasy
owners from time to time. Looking ahead, Ridley should experience
a great deal of success with only Week 6 (Seattle) representing
a truly difficult matchup. However, with the exception of Week
16, he doesn’t appear destined for much success during the fantasy
postseason. One of my greatest fears during the preseason has
come true: despite the Pats possessing the most receiving talent
since their record-breaking offense in 2007, OC Josh McDaniels
has saw fit to balance the offense. While some of this is probably
is due to a developing offensive line, New England has faced pretty
solid defenses over the last two weeks. There’s a time to deal
high on Brady in fantasy and it might be after this week.
New
Orleans Saints – Quite simply, the Saints have played some
of the worst defense I have seen from a team to begin a season.
(For those of you looking ahead, the Saints face the Giants, Bucs
and Cowboys during the fantasy playoffs.) While I understand the
transition from Gregg Williams’ blitz-happy scheme to Steve Spagnuolo’s
zone-based gameplan was going to take some time, but there is
simply no excuse for the ineptitude they have shown so far. The
Chiefs (and Romeo Crennel-led defenses) have a long history of
taking out an opponent’s top option(s), so owners of Darren
Sproles and Jimmy Graham should feel the same way about their
players as they did before Week 3. While I’ll agree Mark
Ingram is not the same kind of talent as former college backfield
partner Trent
Richardson, he’s being absolutely wasted in New Orleans. General
managers lose jobs when they trade away future first-round picks
to acquire running backs that don’t see the field more than a
third of the team’s snaps. In 12-team leagues, he’s a fringe hold
and, in smaller leagues, he belongs on the waiver wire…and it
hurts to say that.
New York Giants –Tom Coughlin seems to be of the belief
that Andre
Brown and Ramses
Barden can become regular fixtures in the offense even when
Ahmad
Bradshaw and Hakeem
Nicks return from injury (which should be this week). However,
the emergence of Martellus
Bennett would seem to suggest Barden will be limited to red-zone
and Mario
Manningham-like work at best in the passing game. As for Brown,
he may be a slightly smaller but more explosive version of Brandon
Jacobs, but anyone who has owned Jacobs over the years knows
that isn’t exactly a joyride. And let’s not forget that rookie
David
Wilson is the most dynamic runner of the bunch, so I’d be
surprised if he doesn’t eventually steal the No.2 role back from
Brown in a few weeks when he has proven his trustworthiness. So,
in short, I expect this to be much ado about nothing in a few
weeks, with Wilson the one threatening Bradshaw’s workload.
New
York Jets – The loss of CB Darrelle
Revis has been dissected enough already, so since the Jets
already sport a run defense that is already getting trampled,
it may be time to kick their defense to the curb in fantasy leagues.
Somewhere along the same lines of the Bengals’ Andrew Hawkins,
Jeremy
Kerley is making the most of limited opportunities and deserves
a spot on watch lists. Even with Stephen
Hill likely out this week, Kerley isn’t worth a roster spot
right now with upcoming games against the Niners and Texans. Savvy
fantasy owners probably already have Bilal
Powell stashed away, but keep an eye out for newcomer Jonathan
Grimes, who impressed the Texans during the preseason. The Jets
have decided to convert Joe
McKnight to cornerback, making it possible for Grimes to see
some playing time if the Jets’ backfield remains unproductive.
Oakland
Raiders – With Darren
McFadden’s slow start a thing of the past, the focus shifts
to a passing game that will be without Darrius
Heyward-Bey for the immediate future. Last year, that would
have meant a ton of opportunity for Denarius Moore, but with a
receiver group that is averaging just 120.6 yards so far, it’s
hard to see Moore living up to his potential in Greg Knapp’s offense
anytime soon. While Oakland’s overall defense isn’t quite the
sieve that New Orleans’ is, the pass defense is. After Joselio
Hanson, Pat Lee and Michael Huff got scorched by Ben
Roethlisberger last week, the Raiders get the Broncos and
Falcons over the next three weeks. I bet you can guess what I’m
going to tell you to do with all your players from Denver and
Atlanta in those two weeks.
Philadelphia
Eagles – The alarming rate that Michael
Vick has turned the ball over through three games has brought
him under some fire, but just as discouraging is Andy Reid’s continued
lack of unbalanced play-calling, especially during the first half
of the Eagles’ Week 3 loss when Philly ran just five times and
called 25 pass plays. While Bryce
Brown is as raw as can be in terms of being a three-down back,
he is the first RB the Eagles have had in a few years that would
allow the team to take a few carries away from LeSean
McCoy in order to preserve him for the season and even out
the run-pass ratio a bit. While hip pointers don’t tend to go
away in two weeks, expect Jeremy
Maclin to get right back to work as a must-start in fantasy.
His loss was evident in the loss to the Cardinals since he is
Vick’s most trusted receiver.
Pittsburgh
Steelers – Apparently, preseason isn’t all that important
(Mike
Wallace) and all a receiver or tight end needs is his quarterback
to say, “I’m getting (him) to the Pro Bowl this year.” (Heath
Miller). To be clear, Wallace deserves a ton of credit for
keeping himself in shape during the preseason and being a quick
study while Miller has always had the all-around game to be the
Steelers’ version of Jason Witten. Miller’s career-high touchdown
mark is seven (2007) while his best fantasy season (76 catches
for 789 yards and six scores) was 2009. While both are certainly
achievable on his current pace, I have my sincere doubts that
defenses will not start adjusting to the fact he has been targeted
eight times in the red zone – more than any other player in the
league. Conversely, I’m stunned by Wallace’s start because the
first three games of the season should have been his most difficult.
My advice right now: sell high on Miller if possible and ride
Wallace.
San Diego Chargers – Having seen Antonio
Gates with my own eyes on a few occasions this summer, I can
attest to the weight loss and his return to about 90% of the player
we remember. What owners have received so far, however, is a player
with a rib injury who isn’t getting downfield and catching less
than half of his targets. I honestly believe Gates will turn this
thing around rather quickly (assuming he stays healthy), but I
don’t see a breakout game coming against the Chiefs in Week 4
after Kansas City bottled up Jimmy Graham last week. Maybe a Week
5 date against the Saints will do the trick. One week after Ryan
Mathews’ owners rejoiced in his return to the field, HC Norv Turner
is now saying the man he could see leading the league in carries
could see his role limited somewhat due to ball-security issues.
Quite honestly, I can see this being a non-story in about two
weeks if Mathews simply doesn’t fumble. Since the remainder of
his schedule sets up pretty nicely, see if you can’t use this
little nugget about his carries being scaled back in trade talks.
After watching Jackie
Battle and Ronnie
Brown the first two weeks, Mathews isn’t losing carries with
any kind of regularity.
San
Francisco 49ers – I cannot begin to explain how a defense
this dominant with good – if not great – linebacker and safety
play has surrendered four touchdowns to the TE position through
three games, but it has. This is not a trend I would expect to
continue even when San Francisco next faces a team with a TE that
is a fairly regular and significant part of the offense (the Giants
in Week 6). I’m also a bit disappointed the new receivers in this
offense haven’t been targeted a bit more, especially when their
catch rate stands at 77.4%. With the Jets and Bills coming up,
it would make sense for the Niners to use Randy
Moss and Mario Manningham a bit more. If nothing else, the
next two weeks should give us a pretty good sense if the passing
game is going to be all about Vernon
Davis and Michael
Crabtree going forward.
Seattle Seahawks – Had the aforementioned Monday night
debacle made it a non-story, the Seahawks’ defense would have
likely been the story of the game, win or lose. Just as impressive
to me was Marshawn
Lynch, who regularly dragged defenders – even B.J.
Raji on at least one occasion – three and sometimes four yards
on a number of his carries. While I wish Seattle would find a
few more carries for Robert
Turbin and be a bit more imaginative with its play-calling,
it is hard to fault a formula that led to a rout of Dallas and
was good enough to defeat Green Bay.
St.
Louis Rams – I needed to see only one college game – his
final one – to tell you that Steven
Jackson was the best college running back I’d seen in the
21st century, so it pains me that he has yet to play for a winning
team. And as his career slowly nears its end, it seems sad – for
this year anyway – that it may be a while before he can help fantasy
owners again. Assuming he will stay healthy now for the remainder
of the season – a big if – he’ll be forced to overcome Seattle,
Arizona and Miami over the next three weeks. In all, Jackson has
only one matchup that I would consider overly favorable the rest
of the way – the Jets in Week 11. Unsurprisingly, I’m equally
lukewarm on Sam
Bradford and just about any other Rams players – outside of
Danny Amendola in PPR leagues – the rest of the way.
Tampa
Bay Bucs – Through three games, I had Doug
Martin pegged for 195 rushing yards and a TD, so I’m feeling
pretty good about missing his actual mark by just 19 yards. What’s
even more encouraging is that he is about to enter a soft part
of his schedule and I really don’t see much keeping him from fulfilling
my expectations as a top-10 RB in PPR or standard leagues. The
Tampa Bay Times warned us in late August that Josh
Freeman may get off to a slow start because of all the new
responsibilities he would have under in new OC Mike Sullivan’s
offense. As was the case with Sullivan’s former pupil, Eli
Manning, this is going to take some time and it may not even
happen this season. But Freeman’s dynasty and keeper-league owners
as well as Bucs’ fans need to be patient because he has already
shown us what he is capable of back in 2010.
Tennessee
Titans – We’ve discussed Chris
Johnson at length over the past couple of weeks, so I’ll simply
share this
tweet and one of many stats that sheds a bit of light on what
I’ve been saying about him: despite rushing for 45 yards in three
games, he had three runs of over 10 yards in Week 3 alone – or
one more than Darren McFadden has to his credit in 2012 – and
somehow still finished with 24 yards. I’m not crazy enough to
say a breakout is coming, but I plan on riding this out until
I see a game where I feel he deserves most of the blame. The other
part of holding him right now is that no owner will give you anything
of use in return. One thing that will help expedite Johnson’s
return to an every-week start is Kenny Britt. Because Jake
Locker has a tendency to miss high when he throws a bad ball,
it behooves the entire Titans’ offense to have someone with Britt’s
athleticism to go get it. More big plays in the passing game means
less stress on the offensive line and more lanes for Johnson.
The skill-position talent on this team screams “sleeping giant”.
I’ll be interested to see how quickly that happens.
Washington
Redskins – In my PMAs, I predicted Robert Griffin III’s
line after three games would be 740-4-3 with 155 yards on the
ground and two rushing scores. He’s been slightly better than
that, but the point to be made here is this start was not entirely
unexpected. Now the real question is: without the likes of the
Saints, Rams and Bengals to beat up each week and with all the
hits he is taking right now, can he keep it up? While dynasty
and keeper leaguers will obviously want to hold, I’d be selling
in redraft leagues because I doubt he will continue this pace
against stiffer competition – which he will see in the coming
weeks – or be able to hold up physically. One reason why HC Mike
Shanahan hasn’t been able to mix-and-match at RB is because Alfred
Morris has been playing musical chairs by himself all season
long. Roy
Helu is already done for the season, Evan
Royster has a strained patellar tendon and newly-signed Ryan
Grant offers about the same kind of explosion Morris does. Still,
Royster still offers the most big-play potential – as sad as that
is to say – of the three remaining backs and would be my choice
as the featured runner in this backfield when he is healthy.
Suggestions, comments, musings about the article
or fantasy football in general? E-mail
me or follow me on Twitter.
Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006, appeared in USA
Today’s Fantasy Football Preview magazine in each of the last
two seasons and served as a weekly fantasy football analyst for
106.7 The Fan (WJFK – Washington, D.C). He is also a member
of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. |