| All Out Blitz: Volume 48
 9/27/12
 
 Aggressiveness is a characteristic that tends to reward fantasy 
              owners more times than not. In the NFL, an offensive line will sometimes 
              hold up long enough to give the quarterback enough time to beat 
              man coverage down the field and make the defense look foolish against 
              a fierce pass rush. More often than not, though, when a defense 
              brings the heat and forces the action, crisis management becomes 
              the name of the game for the opposing team.
 
 In that same vein, I hope to apply that same kind of pressure to 
              the owners in all of my leagues by beating my opponents to the punch 
              in regards to personnel moves. Sometimes, reaching a conclusion 
              about a player too quickly results in making a bad situation worse. 
              However, coming to a correct conclusion two weeks or two minutes 
              quicker than your opponents is considered foresight and can often 
              lead to fantasy championships.
 
 Fantasy owners can be a uneasy lot, knowing that one two-or-three-game 
              losing streak can wreak irreparable damage to his/her team’s 
              chances to make a visit to the fantasy postseason. But just as it 
              is in the NFL and in life, it’s hard to land the big prize 
              by playing scared. Thus, I will strive each week to help each of 
              you become a smart blitzer, so to speak.
 
 
 As a general rule, those of us who write about and observe the trends 
              of fantasy football are best served to deal with the numbers game 
              and leave the “real game” to the players, coaches, officials 
              and NFL employees. However, there are times when we are obligated 
              to use our ability to connect with the “common man” 
              and reach the masses in order to correct a terrible wrong…or 
              at least keep it from happening again anytime soon.
 Before we go any further, let’s keep this discussion we 
                are about to have in perspective. The NFL is an entertainment 
                business and games are merely short-term events that can sometimes 
                provide lasting memories. Quite often, sports – football 
                in particular – can serve as a metaphor for life, which 
                is one of the many reasons I find myself more intrigued with this 
                game each year. But as someone who covered the Penn State football 
                scandal less than a year ago, I hardly need to be reminded about 
                how important a nationally-televised regular-season NFL game is 
                in the greater scheme of things. By now, the sports world has analyzed the end of the Green Bay-Seattle 
                game more than most networks will analyze the “Race to the 
                White House” or why the price of gas keeps increasing even 
                though oil companies are more efficient now than they ever have 
                been. Setting aside what that means for us as a society for now 
                and staying strictly under the scope of the NFL, how can the league 
                explain to the Packers how they lost on Monday night? How do we 
                explain to kids watching the game that such an oversight can’t 
                be corrected because it would “set a bad precedent”? 
                While that “bad precedent” argument is true in 
                theory, it needs to be noted that the rulebook had to be written 
                with the assumption that the league’s best officials are 
                working. I know as well as anyone that life isn’t fair 
                and most of us have to work like crazy to get a little ahead while 
                others can simply do next to nothing and reap just about every 
                benefit life has to offer. But should fans, players and teams 
                be forced to suffer the same consequences, especially considering 
                that their jobs are almost always on the line and this, in the 
                end, is just a game? Unlike life, most sports have the benefit of wide-ranging instant 
                replay. While instant replay cannot fix every flaw, it can go 
                a long way in correcting obvious wrongs and does a good job of 
                doing just that. It should also be noted that while the game is 
                now being officiated by replacements, the current replay officials 
                are the regular ones and the league 
                even has an on-field administrator for each game to ensure the 
                smooth operation of each game. But here within lies the multi-layered 
                problem. Assuming the league is on the “right” side 
                of this negotiation for a second, it is trusting well over 100 
                rookie referees to “protect the shield” and 
                make pivotal game-changing calls. The replacements are expected 
                to maintain the same level of quality that the regular referees 
                provide although the former never had the benefit of a full offseason 
                to prepare for the NFL game. The replacements also work with the 
                knowledge that next week may be their final game on the big stage. 
                If the league is prepared to move forward with inferior officiating, 
                then it must also be prepared to: (a) live with a great deal of 
                negative publicity or (b) provide a mechanism by which the few 
                regular officials that are present at each game are allowed to 
                essentially serve as the league’s on-site quality control 
                people until this whole ordeal is resolved. Just like it seemed unreasonable that millions of fans had access 
                to instant replay at home for years before the league realized 
                it needed to provide it as a tool for the officials, it seems 
                horribly wrong now that millions of Americans can see a game-deciding 
                call made right before their eyes and are still left with “the 
                human element” deciding the fate of the game by officials 
                clearly not suited to be in that position. Furthermore, the idea 
                that savvy football fans would not quickly notice a difference 
                between lower-level college officials and the ones who spend much 
                of their free time scouting team and player tendencies in order 
                to be prepared for game day smacks of extreme arrogance and indifference 
                on the league’s part. (If I can humor you for a second, 
                I have often said that I can tell you what you don’t know, 
                but I can’t help you if you don’t care and think you 
                are better than me too. I’ve seen it all too often throughout 
                my career and it pains me to see it so clearly now in the sport 
                that I love.) The other problem in play here is obviously the 
                league’s need to show everyone who is in charge, just as 
                it did last year during the lockout last season.) Let it also be said this past weekend didn’t mark the start 
                of this controversy; it simply illustrated the incompetence of 
                the current referees for the world to see and the need to end 
                this stalemate to rebuild the declining integrity of the game. 
                Certainly, the MNF game never gets to the point of sheer outrage 
                if Green Bay’s Erik Walden isn’t penalized for a highly-questionable 
                roughing the passer call on an interception as Seattle begins 
                its last drive. But even beyond that call (which I’ve seen 
                the regular officials make a number of times) is the sheer inconsistency 
                in which pass interference has been enforced in recent weeks. 
                Obvious offensive pass interference calls are being called on 
                the defense, obvious defensive pass interference calls aren’t 
                being penalized at all and minor illegal contact calls are being 
                called defensive pass interference. Based on the increase of penalties 
                over the last two weeks, I can assure you that someone in the 
                league office made it clear to the replacement officials they 
                needed to throw more flags after a relatively tame Week 1. Of course, the fans themselves can force an end to this stalemate 
                by simply refusing to give the NFL what it wants – your 
                money and attention – for a short period of time. While 
                the league and its owners have deep pockets, a quick and swift 
                “holdout” by the very fans that support this league 
                would create almost instantaneous panic from the owners. But that 
                is obviously a bold move…kind of like the type of gamble 
                the NFL made when it decided it didn’t need the best referees 
                to preserve the integrity of its games. While I’m no expert when it comes to labor negotiations, 
                I am not exactly a novice in the area either. There are several 
                key issues – beautifully explained by Andrew Brandt 
                in the linked article – that represent the few true sticking 
                points keeping the league and the NFL Referees Association from 
                coming to some sort of an agreement. While it is not my job to 
                settle their dispute, I do know that if overmatched officials 
                are calling games, then player safety isn’t any more important 
                to the NFL than the outcome of games (or its reputation). If that 
                is the case, it is only a matter of time before a skirmish here 
                – which the replacement refs have been slow to react to 
                – or another incident there leads to yet another unnecessary 
                outcome, long-term injury or lawsuit for the league. And when 
                that happens, someone will have to answer the question: “Was 
                saving a few dollars and exerting our authority just because we 
                are the NFL really worth it?” LATE UPDATE: Perhaps sensing 
                that I spent a few hours writing the 1,200+ words above, the NFL 
                and NFLRA reached an eight-year agreement just before my usual 
                deadline. Still, I feel justified to keep the introduction intact 
                simply to provoke thought on an issue that really should have 
                never reached this point.
 
 Once is an accident, twice a coincidence and three times is a 
                trend. About this time every season, I think of this old saying 
                that has taken on many different forms over the years. After three 
                weeks of the fantasy season, I think we can begin to start drawing 
                some halfway-reasonable conclusions about how the season – 
                or at least the first half of it – will unfold. With that 
                in mind, let’s take a 32-team look at some of my early impressions 
                as September draws to a close.  Arizona Cardinals – Frankly, I cannot remember the last 
                team that was able to start 3-0 that rushed for 2.8 YPC, threw 
                for 181 yards/game and didn’t own a significant advantage in turnover 
                differential. What I do know is the Cards have quickly established 
                themselves as a top-five defense and have themselves a keeper 
                in Ryan 
                Williams as soon as he can learn to fully trust his surgically-repaired 
                knee (although it may take a while for him to be a fantasy force 
                with his current offensive line). We were also reminded that no 
                matter how dire the situation looks for a player (in this case, 
                Larry 
                Fitzgerald), offensive coordinators can usually find a way 
                to get their key offensive player going while defensive assignments 
                will get blown, like they did against the Eagles last week.
  Atlanta 
                Falcons – It took until Week 3 for the coaching staff to 
                realize Jacquizz 
                Rodgers needs to be playing at least as many snaps as Michael 
                Turner. Going forward, I’d be mildly surprised if Rodgers 
                doesn’t see more snaps than Turner as Atlanta attempts to become 
                a full-fledged offensive powerhouse. Julio 
                Jones and Roddy 
                White are 1A and 1B in the passing game while Tony 
                Gonzalez is still the red-zone monster he has always been, 
                even if he can’t separate from defenders anymore. Matt 
                Ryan hasn’t thrown for 300 yards yet, but it is coming. (Through 
                three games, I predicted a line of 895-7-2 for him and he’s delivered 
                793-8-1 with a rushing TD for good measure.)
  Baltimore Ravens – Through three weeks, the Ravens have 
                attempted 113 passes and 73 runs – a rate I don’t expect to change 
                anytime soon. It is hard to argue with the 2-1 record so far, 
                but despite 20 touches/game, it sure seems to me that Ray 
                Rice is absent from the offensive attack for long stretches 
                in just about every game. With Cleveland and Kansas City up next, 
                don’t be surprised to see him enjoy two of his finer fantasy performances 
                of the season. In a very unassuming way, Dennis 
                Pitta has been amazing. His red-zone numbers don’t jump off 
                the page as much as you’d expect (four targets, two receptions 
                and one touchdown), but his 31 targets are tied with Jimmy 
                Graham for most in the league by a tight end. Because he is 
                operating out of the slot so much and Torrey 
                Smith commands the respect he does, I suspect Pitta will be 
                a huge PPR asset the rest of the season.
  Buffalo 
                Bills – In the Bills’ quest to “hide” Ryan 
                Fitzpatrick, he has been a very good fantasy quarterback and 
                is off to another one of his “hot” starts. However, two RBs (Fred 
                Jackson, C.J. 
                Spiller) and his favorite slot receiver (David 
                Nelson) have all gotten hurt in the process, so with no more 
                than 208 yards passing in any game so far, how much longer can 
                we expect the 2-3 touchdown games to continue before he experiences 
                another second-half swoon? My mind hasn’t changed regarding the 
                RB situation where I expect Jackson to assume at least half the 
                workload when both backs are healthy.
  Carolina 
                Panthers – Looking back to his rookie season, Cam 
                Newton experienced a slow stretch from Weeks 10-12 where he 
                averaged 18.8 fantasy points. Right now, he’s averaging 17.3. 
                Newton emerged from that “slump” and closed out the fantasy season 
                averaging 30.25 points over the final four games (although his 
                two big games during last year’s stretch came against a Bucs team 
                that had mailed it in). What I do know is that we’ve learned that 
                we should never doubt Newton’s talent and competitive drive. Most 
                of his interceptions this season have been stupefying, but I think 
                it is only a matter of time before OC Rob Chudzinski and Newton 
                get on track. The Panthers’ use of Greg 
                Olsen outside the hashmarks near the end of the Giants’ game 
                was a good start to jump-start the offense but finding a way to 
                get Steve 
                Smith more than the four targets he’s seen in each of the 
                last two games will do the most to rectify this problem.
  Chicago 
                Bears – We knew Matt 
                Forte was important to the running game, but is he also every 
                bit as important in the passing game? Jay 
                Cutler’s passing numbers over the last six or so quarters 
                would hint at that, but the quality of the opposing defense has 
                contributed to that as well. After next week, the schedule suggests 
                that Chicago’s next four games can be had through the air. At 
                that point, sell on Cutler. And based on what we’ve seen so far 
                from every defense over the second half of the schedule, I may 
                just recommend selling on every Bear after Week 9. I think it 
                is safe to say that I don’t want to count on Chicago players facing 
                the likes of the Texans, Niners, Seahawks, Packers and Cardinals 
                when my team is trying to get in position to win a fantasy championship.
  Cincinnati 
                Bengals – Regardless of what his average number of targets 
                over the last two weeks might suggest, Andrew 
                Hawkins is becoming harder and harder to ignore and Armon 
                Binns isn’t too far away from joining him as a player worth 
                adding in 12-team leagues. It is this collection of talent – of 
                course, along with A.J. 
                Green – that made me question the Bengals’ stubbornness in 
                regards to the running game entering this year. Even at his size 
                (5-7, 175), Hawkins may force himself to become a more regular 
                part of the offense because of the explosive element he gives 
                this offense, much like Antonio 
                Brown did in Pittsburgh last season. Binns is the opposite 
                of Hawkins in a lot of ways, but he has a great shot to fill the 
                big-bodied possession receiver role we thought Mohamed 
                Sanu would occupy earlier in the summer.
  Cleveland Browns – Let me get this right: HC Pat Shurmur 
                is threatening to bench Greg 
                Little for drops and replace him…with whom? Little had 14 
                drops as a rookie and has been charged with two more this season, 
                but he still represents the best receiving threat the team has. 
                Little wasn’t used a great deal last year before the Browns’ Week 
                5 bye, at which point it was determined that he would be featured. 
                I’d be a bit surprised if he doesn’t take off in a similar fashion 
                in 2012. Keep an eye out for TE Jordan 
                Cameron. OC Brad Childress suggested earlier in the week a 
                back injury was the reason Cameron – the talk of training camp 
                – did not see more snaps over the first two weeks.
  Dallas 
                Cowboys – The Cowboys’ pass defense has certainly met expectations 
                and then some, but the jury is still out on the run defense. The 
                Cowboys are also very fortunate to be 2-1 with little to no help 
                from Dez 
                Bryant and Jason 
                Witten. While we can blame the latter’s slow start on rushing 
                back from his spleen injury, it sure looks like more of the same 
                from the former. Bryant caught all three of his second-half targets 
                for 47 yards, but that display was probably assisted by his sideline 
                shouting match with position coach Jimmy Robinson. I’m far from 
                a Bryant apologist, but even if he isn’t capable of running the 
                entire route tree the way the team wants him to, his run-after-catch 
                skills are undeniable. His relative lack of involvement in the 
                team’s gameplan in the second half of games – something that dates 
                back to last season – is also hard to understand. Last year, it 
                was supposedly a lack of conditioning. What’s the reason this 
                year?
  Denver Broncos – Minus the two touchdowns he could have 
                easily had over the last two games (defensive pass interference 
                called both times) and another potential TD that bounced off his 
                hands in a crowd and landed in Joel 
                Dreessen’s, I’m not all that concerned about Eric 
                Decker. No one will question Demaryius 
                Thomas has more natural talent, but I believe this is a low-end 
                WR1 race that will go right to the end, at least in PPR leagues. 
                The early returns suggest that while the coaching staff has catered 
                to Peyton 
                Manning in terms of the way the offense attacks, the coaching 
                staff will remain make sure it remains more balanced than what 
                we’ve come to expect from a Manning-led offense. With the threat 
                of an above-average passing game and a consistent 15-20 touches 
                going forward against “light boxes”, I really like Willis 
                McGahee going forward.
  Detroit 
                Lions – I’m at a loss trying to explain the Lions’ offensive 
                attack so far this season, especially their plan at running back. 
                Against a Rams’ defense I know I expected to be a difficult matchup 
                vs. the pass in Week 1, Matthew 
                Stafford attempted 48 passes. Against the Niners’ vaunted 
                run defense, Lions RBs carried the ball 22 times, more than they 
                had in a single game since Week 11 of last season. And then, against 
                a Titans’ run defense the Patriots and Chargers gashed, Mikel 
                LeShoure is given 26 carries in his first game back from suspension, 
                averages less than 4.0 YPC and is praised for his performance? 
                (Keep in mind, Kevin 
                Smith was slightly more productive on an YPC basis than Adrian 
                Peterson against the Niners.) And to top it off, Joique Bell 
                was given the crunch-time touches instead of Smith, meaning Smith 
                went from first-string to third-string in less than a week despite 
                being the best pass protector of the bunch and the player largely 
                responsible for their only win. Until I see one “special” quality 
                from LeShoure that makes him irreplaceable – including prolonged 
                durability – he strikes me as a sell-high candidate.
  
                  It's no time to panic if you're a Rodgers 
                    owner.  Green 
                Bay Packers – I have absolutely zero concern about Aaron 
                Rodgers. However, if the team is as slow to react to its offensive 
                tackles getting beat by speed rushers as it was against Seattle, 
                then his durability will be a major question going forward. However, 
                only Houston and Arizona strike me as defenses over the next month 
                or so that can bottle up this passing game. My feelings on Cedric 
                Benson have not changed either. He’s a good zone runner, but 
                his ball security issues and lack of explosiveness are the qualities 
                that make him replaceable. Believe it or not, I’d still be stunned 
                if James 
                Starks doesn’t replace him at some point once he is fully 
                recovered from turf toe.
  Houston 
                Texans – How many teams can lose two defensive staples 
                (Mario 
                Williams, DeMeco 
                Ryans) in the same offseason and say their defense improved? 
                CB Kareem 
                Jackson has gone from a defensive liability two seasons ago 
                to a serviceable corner, meaning the shadow coverage of Johnathan 
                Joseph isn’t wasted. J.J. Watt is probably already a top-five 
                DE and the OLB duo of Connor Barwin and Brooks 
                Reed makes it virtually impossible for an offense to stop 
                all three. Owners of Ben 
                Tate (but don’t own Arian 
                Foster) may be wise to hold on to him for two more weeks and 
                then sell. With the Titans and Jets next on the schedule, the 
                chances that Tate will be Foster-like in at least one of the two 
                games are pretty good.
  Indianapolis 
                Colts – While Andrew 
                Luck has been as advertised, the ground game has been even 
                less productive than I expected. Donald 
                Brown, Mewelde 
                Moore and Vick 
                Ballard have combined to average a measly 3.0 YPC through 
                three games. Even worse, the three backs have caught just four 
                balls between them (on eight targets), making every one of them 
                nearly useless in just about any fantasy format. Last week, I 
                was convinced it was time to sell high on Reggie 
                Wayne, but with the season-ending injury to Austin 
                Collie, Wayne is well on his way to enjoying a bounceback 
                season. Donnie 
                Avery – the new No. 2 WR – is also now a reasonable fantasy 
                WR3 against all but the toughest defenses or teams that feature 
                safeties that don’t possess a lot of range. Just be careful when 
                planning on Avery as his injury history is every bit as extensive 
                – if not more so – than Collie’s.
  Jacksonville 
                Jaguars – Three weeks into the season and there is no hint 
                that Maurice 
                Jones-Drew was the least bit affected by his holdout. Not 
                only is that a bit difficult for me to process, but his success 
                should be freeing up Marcedes 
                Lewis, Laurent 
                Robinson or Justin 
                Blackmon, which it is not. In fact, none of the aforementioned 
                Jags receivers had more than one catch in their Week 3 win over 
                the Colts. Much like other occurrences in the AFC South, that 
                level of ineptitude simply cannot continue. I will not give up 
                on Blackmon until after Week 7 against a pathetic Raiders secondary, 
                but I’m not seeing where any other Jacksonville receiver is even 
                worthy of a roster spot in a typical 12-team league. Blaine Gabbert’s 
                poor completion percentage (42.5%) over the last two weeks isn’t 
                helping matters, but Blackmon is clearly pressing, which isn’t 
                helping Gabbert. When the rookie learns to relax just a bit, I 
                tend to believe fantasy WR3 production in PPR leagues is still 
                attainable.
  Kansas 
                City Chiefs – The last time I remember a running back running 
                for 200+ yards the week after he ran for less than 10 was Jerome 
                Harrison in 2009. While I could still break down why Harrison 
                was able to do what he did as if it just happened yesterday, I 
                cannot explain to you how a running back like Jamaal 
                Charles– pulled from the previous game because of a bone bruise 
                and who HC Romeo Crennel wondered aloud earlier that week if he 
                would ever return to pre-injury form – could embarrass a defense 
                in a game that same team could not afford to lose. And there is 
                no doubt in my mind that even on his 91-yard TD run that he was 
                not at the same speed he was pre-injury. The true test for me 
                is how he performs in games against the Chargers and Bucs, two 
                of three defenses giving up the fewest rushing yards to running 
                backs so far.
  Miami 
                Dolphins – Reggie 
                Bush’s “bone bruise” this past weekend was a seemingly innocuous 
                reminder that the ex-Saint hasn’t been the most durable back throughout 
                his career. With that said, he’s probably at worst a RB2 in the 
                most difficult matchups – of which there are few left on his schedule 
                – and a low-end RB1 in PPR leagues. (Of course, that is pretty 
                much reaffirming what most of us suspected in the preseason.) 
                While it is encouraging that any Dolphins’ receiver finds himself 
                in the top 12 of targets at his position (29), it doesn’t say 
                a great deal about the chemistry Brian Hartline has with Ryan 
                Tannehill since he has turned just 13 of those into receptions. 
                Move along.
  Minnesota 
                Vikings – Toby 
                Gerhart fumbled three times – losing two – over the last three-plus 
                minutes in last week’s shocker vs. the Niners. This alone may 
                ensure that Adrian Peterson remains a 20-carry back, whether or 
                not it is a good idea for him to maintain that kind of load. I 
                also don’t expect to be changing my mind anytime soon regarding 
                his upcoming schedule or his prospects about turning in another 
                AP-like season. Thankfully, OC Bill Musgrave has seen the light 
                in regards to his key passing game weapons in Percy 
                Harvin (who has been extremely efficient with 27 receptions 
                on 32 targets) and Kyle 
                Rudolph (who just missed out on consecutive two-touchdown 
                performances). Both are top-10 fantasy options at their position 
                going forward.
  New 
                England Patriots – I recognize that Stevan 
                Ridley fans were disappointed after last week’s 13-carry performance, 
                but there isn’t much reason for panic here as most of us knew 
                that HC Bill Belichick can pull the “matchup card” on fantasy 
                owners from time to time. Looking ahead, Ridley should experience 
                a great deal of success with only Week 6 (Seattle) representing 
                a truly difficult matchup. However, with the exception of Week 
                16, he doesn’t appear destined for much success during the fantasy 
                postseason. One of my greatest fears during the preseason has 
                come true: despite the Pats possessing the most receiving talent 
                since their record-breaking offense in 2007, OC Josh McDaniels 
                has saw fit to balance the offense. While some of this is probably 
                is due to a developing offensive line, New England has faced pretty 
                solid defenses over the last two weeks. There’s a time to deal 
                high on Brady in fantasy and it might be after this week.
  New 
                Orleans Saints – Quite simply, the Saints have played some 
                of the worst defense I have seen from a team to begin a season. 
                (For those of you looking ahead, the Saints face the Giants, Bucs 
                and Cowboys during the fantasy playoffs.) While I understand the 
                transition from Gregg Williams’ blitz-happy scheme to Steve Spagnuolo’s 
                zone-based gameplan was going to take some time, but there is 
                simply no excuse for the ineptitude they have shown so far. The 
                Chiefs (and Romeo Crennel-led defenses) have a long history of 
                taking out an opponent’s top option(s), so owners of Darren 
                Sproles and Jimmy Graham should feel the same way about their 
                players as they did before Week 3. While I’ll agree Mark 
                Ingram is not the same kind of talent as former college backfield 
                partner Trent 
                Richardson, he’s being absolutely wasted in New Orleans. General 
                managers lose jobs when they trade away future first-round picks 
                to acquire running backs that don’t see the field more than a 
                third of the team’s snaps. In 12-team leagues, he’s a fringe hold 
                and, in smaller leagues, he belongs on the waiver wire…and it 
                hurts to say that.
  New York Giants –Tom Coughlin seems to be of the belief 
                that Andre 
                Brown and Ramses 
                Barden can become regular fixtures in the offense even when 
                Ahmad 
                Bradshaw and Hakeem 
                Nicks return from injury (which should be this week). However, 
                the emergence of Martellus 
                Bennett would seem to suggest Barden will be limited to red-zone 
                and Mario 
                Manningham-like work at best in the passing game. As for Brown, 
                he may be a slightly smaller but more explosive version of Brandon 
                Jacobs, but anyone who has owned Jacobs over the years knows 
                that isn’t exactly a joyride. And let’s not forget that rookie 
                David 
                Wilson is the most dynamic runner of the bunch, so I’d be 
                surprised if he doesn’t eventually steal the No.2 role back from 
                Brown in a few weeks when he has proven his trustworthiness. So, 
                in short, I expect this to be much ado about nothing in a few 
                weeks, with Wilson the one threatening Bradshaw’s workload.
  New 
                York Jets – The loss of CB Darrelle 
                Revis has been dissected enough already, so since the Jets 
                already sport a run defense that is already getting trampled, 
                it may be time to kick their defense to the curb in fantasy leagues. 
                Somewhere along the same lines of the Bengals’ Andrew Hawkins, 
                Jeremy 
                Kerley is making the most of limited opportunities and deserves 
                a spot on watch lists. Even with Stephen 
                Hill likely out this week, Kerley isn’t worth a roster spot 
                right now with upcoming games against the Niners and Texans. Savvy 
                fantasy owners probably already have Bilal 
                Powell stashed away, but keep an eye out for newcomer Jonathan 
                Grimes, who impressed the Texans during the preseason. The Jets 
                have decided to convert Joe 
                McKnight to cornerback, making it possible for Grimes to see 
                some playing time if the Jets’ backfield remains unproductive.
  Oakland 
                Raiders – With Darren 
                McFadden’s slow start a thing of the past, the focus shifts 
                to a passing game that will be without Darrius 
                Heyward-Bey for the immediate future. Last year, that would 
                have meant a ton of opportunity for Denarius Moore, but with a 
                receiver group that is averaging just 120.6 yards so far, it’s 
                hard to see Moore living up to his potential in Greg Knapp’s offense 
                anytime soon. While Oakland’s overall defense isn’t quite the 
                sieve that New Orleans’ is, the pass defense is. After Joselio 
                Hanson, Pat Lee and Michael Huff got scorched by Ben 
                Roethlisberger last week, the Raiders get the Broncos and 
                Falcons over the next three weeks. I bet you can guess what I’m 
                going to tell you to do with all your players from Denver and 
                Atlanta in those two weeks.
  Philadelphia 
                Eagles – The alarming rate that Michael 
                Vick has turned the ball over through three games has brought 
                him under some fire, but just as discouraging is Andy Reid’s continued 
                lack of unbalanced play-calling, especially during the first half 
                of the Eagles’ Week 3 loss when Philly ran just five times and 
                called 25 pass plays. While Bryce 
                Brown is as raw as can be in terms of being a three-down back, 
                he is the first RB the Eagles have had in a few years that would 
                allow the team to take a few carries away from LeSean 
                McCoy in order to preserve him for the season and even out 
                the run-pass ratio a bit. While hip pointers don’t tend to go 
                away in two weeks, expect Jeremy 
                Maclin to get right back to work as a must-start in fantasy. 
                His loss was evident in the loss to the Cardinals since he is 
                Vick’s most trusted receiver.
  Pittsburgh 
                Steelers – Apparently, preseason isn’t all that important 
                (Mike 
                Wallace) and all a receiver or tight end needs is his quarterback 
                to say, “I’m getting (him) to the Pro Bowl this year.” (Heath 
                Miller). To be clear, Wallace deserves a ton of credit for 
                keeping himself in shape during the preseason and being a quick 
                study while Miller has always had the all-around game to be the 
                Steelers’ version of Jason Witten. Miller’s career-high touchdown 
                mark is seven (2007) while his best fantasy season (76 catches 
                for 789 yards and six scores) was 2009. While both are certainly 
                achievable on his current pace, I have my sincere doubts that 
                defenses will not start adjusting to the fact he has been targeted 
                eight times in the red zone – more than any other player in the 
                league. Conversely, I’m stunned by Wallace’s start because the 
                first three games of the season should have been his most difficult. 
                My advice right now: sell high on Miller if possible and ride 
                Wallace.
  San Diego Chargers – Having seen Antonio 
                Gates with my own eyes on a few occasions this summer, I can 
                attest to the weight loss and his return to about 90% of the player 
                we remember. What owners have received so far, however, is a player 
                with a rib injury who isn’t getting downfield and catching less 
                than half of his targets. I honestly believe Gates will turn this 
                thing around rather quickly (assuming he stays healthy), but I 
                don’t see a breakout game coming against the Chiefs in Week 4 
                after Kansas City bottled up Jimmy Graham last week. Maybe a Week 
                5 date against the Saints will do the trick. One week after Ryan 
                Mathews’ owners rejoiced in his return to the field, HC Norv Turner 
                is now saying the man he could see leading the league in carries 
                could see his role limited somewhat due to ball-security issues. 
                Quite honestly, I can see this being a non-story in about two 
                weeks if Mathews simply doesn’t fumble. Since the remainder of 
                his schedule sets up pretty nicely, see if you can’t use this 
                little nugget about his carries being scaled back in trade talks. 
                After watching Jackie 
                Battle and Ronnie 
                Brown the first two weeks, Mathews isn’t losing carries with 
                any kind of regularity.
  San 
                Francisco 49ers – I cannot begin to explain how a defense 
                this dominant with good – if not great – linebacker and safety 
                play has surrendered four touchdowns to the TE position through 
                three games, but it has. This is not a trend I would expect to 
                continue even when San Francisco next faces a team with a TE that 
                is a fairly regular and significant part of the offense (the Giants 
                in Week 6). I’m also a bit disappointed the new receivers in this 
                offense haven’t been targeted a bit more, especially when their 
                catch rate stands at 77.4%. With the Jets and Bills coming up, 
                it would make sense for the Niners to use Randy 
                Moss and Mario Manningham a bit more. If nothing else, the 
                next two weeks should give us a pretty good sense if the passing 
                game is going to be all about Vernon 
                Davis and Michael 
                Crabtree going forward.
  Seattle Seahawks – Had the aforementioned Monday night 
                debacle made it a non-story, the Seahawks’ defense would have 
                likely been the story of the game, win or lose. Just as impressive 
                to me was Marshawn 
                Lynch, who regularly dragged defenders – even B.J. 
                Raji on at least one occasion – three and sometimes four yards 
                on a number of his carries. While I wish Seattle would find a 
                few more carries for Robert 
                Turbin and be a bit more imaginative with its play-calling, 
                it is hard to fault a formula that led to a rout of Dallas and 
                was good enough to defeat Green Bay.
  St. 
                Louis Rams – I needed to see only one college game – his 
                final one – to tell you that Steven 
                Jackson was the best college running back I’d seen in the 
                21st century, so it pains me that he has yet to play for a winning 
                team. And as his career slowly nears its end, it seems sad – for 
                this year anyway – that it may be a while before he can help fantasy 
                owners again. Assuming he will stay healthy now for the remainder 
                of the season – a big if – he’ll be forced to overcome Seattle, 
                Arizona and Miami over the next three weeks. In all, Jackson has 
                only one matchup that I would consider overly favorable the rest 
                of the way – the Jets in Week 11. Unsurprisingly, I’m equally 
                lukewarm on Sam 
                Bradford and just about any other Rams players – outside of 
                Danny Amendola in PPR leagues – the rest of the way.
  Tampa 
                Bay Bucs – Through three games, I had Doug 
                Martin pegged for 195 rushing yards and a TD, so I’m feeling 
                pretty good about missing his actual mark by just 19 yards. What’s 
                even more encouraging is that he is about to enter a soft part 
                of his schedule and I really don’t see much keeping him from fulfilling 
                my expectations as a top-10 RB in PPR or standard leagues. The 
                Tampa Bay Times warned us in late August that Josh 
                Freeman may get off to a slow start because of all the new 
                responsibilities he would have under in new OC Mike Sullivan’s 
                offense. As was the case with Sullivan’s former pupil, Eli 
                Manning, this is going to take some time and it may not even 
                happen this season. But Freeman’s dynasty and keeper-league owners 
                as well as Bucs’ fans need to be patient because he has already 
                shown us what he is capable of back in 2010.
  Tennessee 
                Titans – We’ve discussed Chris 
                Johnson at length over the past couple of weeks, so I’ll simply 
                share this 
                tweet and one of many stats that sheds a bit of light on what 
                I’ve been saying about him: despite rushing for 45 yards in three 
                games, he had three runs of over 10 yards in Week 3 alone – or 
                one more than Darren McFadden has to his credit in 2012 – and 
                somehow still finished with 24 yards. I’m not crazy enough to 
                say a breakout is coming, but I plan on riding this out until 
                I see a game where I feel he deserves most of the blame. The other 
                part of holding him right now is that no owner will give you anything 
                of use in return. One thing that will help expedite Johnson’s 
                return to an every-week start is Kenny Britt. Because Jake 
                Locker has a tendency to miss high when he throws a bad ball, 
                it behooves the entire Titans’ offense to have someone with Britt’s 
                athleticism to go get it. More big plays in the passing game means 
                less stress on the offensive line and more lanes for Johnson. 
                The skill-position talent on this team screams “sleeping giant”. 
                I’ll be interested to see how quickly that happens.
  Washington 
                Redskins – In my PMAs, I predicted Robert Griffin III’s 
                line after three games would be 740-4-3 with 155 yards on the 
                ground and two rushing scores. He’s been slightly better than 
                that, but the point to be made here is this start was not entirely 
                unexpected. Now the real question is: without the likes of the 
                Saints, Rams and Bengals to beat up each week and with all the 
                hits he is taking right now, can he keep it up? While dynasty 
                and keeper leaguers will obviously want to hold, I’d be selling 
                in redraft leagues because I doubt he will continue this pace 
                against stiffer competition – which he will see in the coming 
                weeks – or be able to hold up physically. One reason why HC Mike 
                Shanahan hasn’t been able to mix-and-match at RB is because Alfred 
                Morris has been playing musical chairs by himself all season 
                long. Roy 
                Helu is already done for the season, Evan 
                Royster has a strained patellar tendon and newly-signed Ryan 
                Grant offers about the same kind of explosion Morris does. Still, 
                Royster still offers the most big-play potential – as sad as that 
                is to say – of the three remaining backs and would be my choice 
                as the featured runner in this backfield when he is healthy. 
 Suggestions, comments, musings about the article 
                or fantasy football in general? E-mail 
                me or follow me on Twitter. 
                
 Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006, appeared in USA 
              Today’s Fantasy Football Preview magazine in each of the last 
              two seasons and served as a weekly fantasy football analyst for 
              106.7 The Fan (WJFK – Washington, D.C). He is also a member 
              of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.
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