All Out Blitz: Volume 51
10/18/12
Aggressiveness is a characteristic that tends to reward fantasy
owners more times than not. In the NFL, an offensive line will sometimes
hold up long enough to give the quarterback enough time to beat
man coverage down the field and make the defense look foolish against
a fierce pass rush. More often than not, though, when a defense
brings the heat and forces the action, crisis management becomes
the name of the game for the opposing team.
In that same vein, I hope to apply that same kind of pressure to
the owners in all of my leagues by beating my opponents to the punch
in regards to personnel moves. Sometimes, reaching a conclusion
about a player too quickly results in making a bad situation worse.
However, coming to a correct conclusion two weeks or two minutes
quicker than your opponents is considered foresight and can often
lead to fantasy championships.
Fantasy owners can be a uneasy lot, knowing that one two-or-three-game
losing streak can wreak irreparable damage to his/her team’s
chances to make a visit to the fantasy postseason. But just as it
is in the NFL and in life, it’s hard to land the big prize
by playing scared. Thus, I will strive each week to help each of
you become a smart blitzer, so to speak.
Every Sunday right before kickoff of the early games, I have the
incredible honor of serving as the expert on a live hour-long chat
in conjunction with USA Today. While this new task on my fantasy
calendar is a privilege I truly enjoy, I was reminded this week
how the agony I feel when I bench a player I should have started
(or play a player I should have benched) gets magnified when some
of your recommendations don’t follow the “matchup script”
they are supposed to. As luck would have it, the theme of the week
must have been “green”. Allow me to explain:
Shonn Greene landed in a perfect fantasy
storm in Week 6.
Who knew Shonn Greene would find himself in a perfect storm between
soft matchup and a boatload of carries once Bilal Powell and Joe
McKnight were injured? Obviously, it didn’t help the Colts
failed to score a touchdown for the first time this year and finished
with a -4 turnover margin, which is always a bad sign for a team
like Indianapolis with a poor defense. While my recommendation
of James Jones over Greene is one I would make under the current
circumstances 16 out of 16 times, I seem to remember recommending
Mikel Leshoure over Greene due to the former’s consistent
workload. (Not exactly my finest moment…)
The other player that contributed to my agony this week was Green
Bay’s Jordy Nelson. My reasoning for disliking him this
week was sound – I was willing to believe that Johnathan
Joseph’s poor showing against the Jets on Monday Night Football
was more an aberration than a result of an injury – so I
felt justified in recommending Mike Williams to one owner, which
I am perfectly happy with. However, I seem to recall making more
“sit” than “start” calls on Nelson, who
matched Greene’s three-TD effort and probably drove a few
of his disgruntled owners crazy if they benched him.
Fortunately, there was one “Green” that I didn’t
have to make a call on last week: A.J. Green. On a Calvin Johnson-like
(circa 2011) roll to open this season, Green welcomed the recently-reinstated
Joe Haden back into the league with the first two-score game of
his career. Even Alex Green fared well in his first start, earning
HC Mike McCarthy’s recommendation as the back who will “carry
the load” going forward.
Analyzing fantasy football games always has been and always will
be an inexact science. The trick is taking as much of the mystery
out of it as possible, which is what I hope to do with this column
going forward. Let’s see what we learned this week:
Steelers-Titans
Kenny Britt played a poor game – breaking off a number
of routes he shouldn’t have, dropping a few balls he should
have caught and even giving up on a deep ball that landed about
a yard in front of him – while Jared Cook excelled with
the few number of opportunities that he received, the most notable
being the 25-yard reception that set Rob Bironas up for the game-winning
field goal. For the second time in three weeks, Chris Johnson
had huge cutback lanes to run through, although the absence of
Troy Polamalu would have likely prevented probably at least 30-40
of his 91 rushing yards. Even though the run-pass ratio was pretty
even (until the final drive) after Rashard Mendenhall left the
game for good early in the third quarter, I get the sense the
Pittsburgh doesn’t believe it has a running game unless
Mendenhall is going well. Isaac Redman – despite a fluky
100-yard receiving day against a Tennessee defense that cannot
tackle – is best left in a relief role, Baron Batch is an
undersized runner who would get exposed with significant playing
time and Chris Rainey is merely an “offensive weapon”
that has to be kept on a touch count.
Fantasy implications: As is
the case with Dez
Bryant, this kind of game provides a glimpse as to how such
talented receivers like Britt can be so inconsistent. Britt struggled
so much in this game, however, that you have to wonder if his
surgically-repaired knee or some other issue wasn’t distracting
him. Cook is an incredible mismatch and seeing as many snaps as
he ever has, but Tennessee seems to use him only when it really
needs him, which puts owners in a difficult situation. As I mentioned
last week, a good game against Pittsburgh gives fantasy owners
a possible three-week window to move him with the Bills and Colts
next on the schedule. Johnson’s second-half schedule appears much
easier than his first half, but the Titans are not a good football
team right now that still has an average offensive line at best
and a defense that has allowed at least 23 points in every game,
meaning it may be hard to stick with the running game if they
fall behind, even in the “soft” matchups. When Pittsburgh is without
Troy Polamalu or LaMarr
Woodley, it suffers in a big way. When both players are missing,
even a struggling team like Tennessee can score 26. Polamalu’s
instinctual play has given this defense its edge for years while
Woodley is the best pass rusher. Lastly, Mendenhall’s touches
were likely scaled back due to the quick four-day turnaround after
his heavy-use season debut and to take no chances with his knee
(or Achilles’ as it were). It also didn’t help matter that Pittsburgh
suffered a rash of injuries to its offensive line, which probably
also factored into the decision to pull him.
Cowboys-Ravens
Obviously, the big storylines from this game were the high-profile
injuries. The loss of LB Ray Lewis and CB Lardarius Webb will
undoubtedly have far-reaching effects on Baltimore’s defense,
but Lewis’ emotion and Webb’s ability to cover receivers
will be missed on both sides of the ball. Jimmy Smith was merely
average in coverage in Week 6, but Webb’s impact could be
felt the most when opponents go three- or four-wide because he
typically guarded the opponent’s slot receiver in those
situations. For Dallas, DeMarco Murray finally got a chance to
show what he could do when he wasn’t facing to a great run
defense, only to see his potentially huge day ruined by a sprained
foot. The last two minutes of this contest basically encapsulated
Dez Bryant’s career to this point. On third-and-27 with
just over a minute remaining, he showed elite run-after-catch
skills and got Dallas into position to convert on fourth down,
which ultimately led to his second TD of the game. On that score,
he did a wonderful job of shielding off his defender with his
body. On the subsequent two-point conversion attempt, he dropped
a well-thrown ball to tie the game and, after Dallas recovers
the onside kick, Bryant uses the opportunity to jaw with the ref
after a 1-yard catch, contributing to the chaos that caused the
Cowboys to run just one play over the final 26 seconds and led
to Dan Bailey’s missed field-goal attempt that would have
won the game.
Fantasy implications: It’s impossible to tell just how
much the loss Lewis and Webb will have on the team as a whole,
but Baltimore will become even more of a plus-matchup for opposing
run games and average-at-best stopping the pass. (It is also worth
mentioning here that Webb has not surrendered a touchdown since
Week 17 of the 2010 season.) For fantasy purposes, it may be time
to move on from the Ravens defense. As for how their losses affect
the offense, a good assumption would be the Ravens will now lean
on the run more and use less no-huddle as a way to limit the number
of possessions in a game. Inevitably, a poor defense can only
be protected for so long, which means Baltimore may get involved
in a few shootouts. Murray, assuming he only misses a week or
two, is still a fine trade target and has a number of great matchups
down the stretch. Bryant, like Britt above, will continue to amaze
and confound as long as he continues to make “me plays”.
Until he actually can actually show the ability to go through
a whole game or two without mental lapses, he really can’t
be considered anything more than a high-upside WR2.
Chiefs-Bucs
The most immediate nugget that jumped out at me was that Kansas
City’s first three plays with new quarterback Brady Quinn
were passes and all within five yards of the line of scrimmage.
It seemed as if just about every pass came off play-action and
was a “safe” throw, as Quinn’s dreadful 4.7
yard-per-attempt will attest. And yet another shocking part to
me about the Chiefs was their inability to keep the Bucs’
big receivers – Vincent Jackson and Mike Williams –
in front of them. Brandon Flowers graded out extremely well last
season and Stanford Routt – signed to essentially replace
Brandon Carr – was considered Oakland’s best CB in
2011. I saw no evidence of either player living up to their reputations
in this contest and those struggles are made worse by the poor
play of Eric Berry, who looks nothing like the player he did pre-injury.
As for Tampa Bay, I will continue to bang the drum for Doug Martin,
who performed well enough to take 13 of the Bucs’ first
16 carries of the game. HC Greg Schiano assured us during the
Bucs’ bye week that Martin would start producing big plays
once the offensive line “settled down”. He produced
four plays of 10+ yards, including a 42-yard catch-and-run at
the start of the second half.
Fantasy implications: Considering the run-heavy nature of Kansas
City’s offense, it’s not a shock it used a conservative
offensive plan against the Bucs, but NFL defenses are too good
if an offense doesn’t attempt to threaten them deep at least
1-2 times a quarter. Tampa Bay, it should be noted, has one of
the better run defenses this season. Speaking of the running game,
one thing that is becoming a trend is that if an opponent places
a high-enough priority on stopping the run – setting the
edge or stacking the box –against the Chiefs, it probably
will (Buffalo, second half vs. Baltimore and this game). If this
game was any indication, the Chiefs’ secondary should not
strike any fear into the hearts of opposing passing games as Josh
Freeman really didn’t have to work very hard for his 328
passing yards or three TDs. And despite their fairly-even play
counts (28-18) and how their final numbers looked, Martin out-carried
Blount 13-2 until the middle of the fourth quarter, when the veteran
came on and logged five carries with the Bucs leading by 21 points.
The true barometer of how this backfield may play out for the
foreseeable future will likely come next week vs. the Saints,
where Tampa Bay will need to score points via the run and pass
to win. At that time, we should get a good indication as to how
much Schiano wants Blount on the field in critical situations.
Bengals-Browns
Jermaine Gresham’s 55-yard touchdown catch was a prime
example of why I feel like he is such an under-utilized talent.
Lined up as a receiver at the start of the play, he abused LB
Craig Robertson on a slant route, stiff-arming him and dodging
another tackler to break away for the long score. Naturally, even
though he would see seven more targets after that play, he managed
only two catches for 13 yards over the final 3 ½ quarters.
After mentioning him last week, fans need to get familiar with
Cedric Peerman, who saw more snaps than BenJarvus Green-Ellis
in Week 6 despite the fact that Cincinnati entered the fourth
quarter with the lead. While part of this had to do with third-down
back Brian Leonard leaving because of a rib injury, the fact is
the Bengals already realized “Law Firm” is not a three-down
back and not explosive enough to create big plays when the team
is trailing. Peerman isn’t a dynamic talent, but he’s
the only back left on the roster – following Bernard Scott’s
injury – that offers any hint of big-play ability. After
two weeks, we know Josh Gordon can get deep. In this game, he
also collected a pair of 14-yard receptions on an out and a slant
pattern after he burned the Bengals for a 71-yard score. If he
can simply run each of those routes like he did in this game going
forward, defenses are very likely to give it to him because is
just that fast. He’s done enough in my mind to justify a
starting spot even after Mohamed Massaquoi returns.
Fantasy implications: The Bengals, even considering their recent
success, have a long track record of not maximizing the abilities
of their players. Gresham and Rob Gronkowski were considered similar
talents coming out of the 2010 NFL Draft, but Gresham was selected
first primarily because of the Gronkowski’s back surgery
at the time. While Gresham’s numbers to date are nothing
to sneeze at, they pale in comparison to Gronkowski’s in
large part because their offensive philosophy revolves around
a power running game which has been headed by two of the league’s
least explosive backs in his three years with the team. Long story
short, Gresham will likely remain little more than a high-end
TE2 in fantasy. Green-Ellis, like Cedric Benson before him, has
proven to be very durable throughout his career, but Peerman could
have some decent PPR value at the rate the defense is serving
up points if Leonard is out for any length of time. Since we discussed
Gordon last week, I’ll keep it short this week and just
say he has my seal of approval. I snagged him without much competition
(blind bidding) in three of my four big-money leagues last week.
He’s not the Randy Moss talent some people suggested he
was before the supplemental draft, but it may not be long before
he is the best receiver on this team.
Raiders-Falcons
Even as Matt
Ryan continues to prove he is ready to join the league’s top
quarterbacks, he will make poor decisions occasionally and his
first two interceptions were among them. On a short crossing route
to Harry
Douglas, it appeared as if Ryan predetermined his throw despite
perfect coverage from Joselio
Hanson and linebacker help. On the second pick, Ryan forced
the ball into Julio
Jones’ direction about 50 yards down the field despite coverage
on both sides of his receiver and another defender within about
five yards. (The third interception came as a result of getting
drilled in the process of making a throw to Tony
Gonzalez.) Mike
Goodson has no shot at unseating Darren
McFadden, but it is obvious his hamstring is no longer an
issue. The burst he showed on a screen pass in this game and on
a few other pass plays earlier this season has probably led the
Raiders’ coaches to the same conclusion the Panthers’ coaches
made in 2010: he’s too explosive to keep off the field.
Fantasy implications: Ryan has built up a ton of good will with
his play to this point and this game shouldn’t change owners’
perception of him despite the fact that Oakland entered Week 6
without a single interception. Ryan’s receivers are so talented
– while the running game lacks any kind of sizzle –
that he is going to continue getting 35-40 attempts per game.
McFadden is running with plenty of power and had a number of potential
big runs called back due to holding calls, but despite that, he’s
not getting a lot of help from his blockers. Goodson will likely
continue to steal more looks from McFadden in the passing game
as McFadden hasn’t surpassed the three-reception mark in
a game since opening up the season with 13. Still, as long as
owners can learn to live with his potential for injury, his workload
and upcoming schedule will likely ensure that he remains among
the most consistent RBs in fantasy.
Colts-Jets
Indianapolis knew entering the season it did not have the personnel
yet to run the 3-4 defense or stop the run…and it shows.
Against two one-dimensional offenses – the Jags and the
Jets – that had little choice but to run the ball, the Colts
allowed 424 yards rushing just to running backs in those games.
What stuck out in this game the most, however, was Indy’s
complete unwillingness to tackle Shonn Greene after first contact.
Prior to Week 6, Greene had forced just one missed tackle and
collected 141 yards after contact, per Pro Football Focus. In
this contest alone, he broke eight tackles and recorded 82 yards
after contact. Give Greene credit for running tough, but a ton
of his yardage came from the Colts’ lackluster effort. Andrew
Luck looked like a rookie QB for the first time since perhaps
Week 1. His usual pinpoint accuracy was not there and he seemed
unsure of himself as well. While Antonio Cromartie’s stellar
coverage kept his favorite receiver (Reggie Wayne) quiet for the
majority of the first three quarters, the entire operation of
the Colts’ passing game was just off. Dwayne Allen was involved
on the first drive but barely heard from thereafter, Donnie Avery
was targeted heavily once again but didn’t receive all that
many catchable balls and the times where Indy could have possibly
put together a big pass play, Luck was under severe pressure.
Fantasy implications: I feel confident in saying that while Greene
showed more niftiness than he has in the last season or two, he
is not going to repeat this kind of performance anytime soon.
Over the next five games (six weeks), the Jets face four opponents
who currently rank among the top seven defenses in terms of the
fewest rushing yards allowed to the RB position. It is actually
a bit surprising that it took the Colts this long to put together
this dreadful of a performance given where they are in the rebuilding
plan. While the Jets deserve plenty of credit, this game very
much looked like one in which Indy played without the “win
one for Chuck” motivation it did the previous week vs. Green
Bay or got a little full of themselves after knocking off the
Packers.
Rams-Dolphins
The Rams’ coaching staff deserves a ton of credit for putting
together a gameplan each week that manages to keep Sam Bradford
somewhat healthy and allows the running game to be moderately
productive (we’ll get into a bit more detail about that
in a bit). On one hand, it looked like St. Louis has committed
to a splitting its backfield reps almost evenly between Steven
Jackson and Daryl Richardson. On the other hand, it became obvious
to me midway through the first quarter the Rams identified their
best shot at success against Miami was running on the perimeter,
a skill set that suits the younger and more explosive Richardson.
To further back up that point, I don’t recall a single Richardson
run inside the tackles (outside of a couple of draws) nor do I
remember seeing a single Jackson run that didn’t start inside
the tackles. Much of Miami’s offensive gameplan appeared
to target CB Bradley Fletcher and Janoris Jenkins (or avoid Cortland
Finnegan, to be precise) and lean on quick-hitting pass plays
that allowed QB Ryan Tannehill to avoid the impressive Rams’
pass rush. Jenkins, in particular, had a poor game, allowing all
nine passes in his coverage to be completed. With that nugget
of information and after looking at the box score, it should come
as no shock that Jenkins spent most of his day on Davone Bess
or Marlon Moore.
Fantasy implications: It is stunning to me that an offense starting
Wayne Hunter at LT and Barry Richardson at RT can get anything
done, much less post 462 yards against a fairly formidable Dolphins
defense. Casual game observers might be willing to look at the
game and/or box score and say the Rams have joined the ranks of
the dreaded RBBC, but I’m not so sure. The idea of Mr. Inside
and Mr. Outside came to me on the Rams’ second snap from
scrimmage and may be their plan to compensate for the absence
of Danny Amendola. One thing that is apparent over last season
for Miami is that HC Joe Philbin and OC Mike Sherman understand
football is more than just focusing on what your players do well,
but calling a game that minimizes what your opponent does well.
This, above everything else, is my rationale for why Brian Hartline
was hardly targeted vs. the Rams after being one of the league
leaders in the category entering the game while Bess, Moore and
Reggie Bush carried the Miami passing attack. In other words,
we should continue to expect inconsistent production from Hartline
in games in which Miami should be able to remain competitive or
against defenses with weak pass rushes. In other games –
like this one – expect a heavy dose of Bush, Bess and Anthony
Fasano.
Lions-Eagles
One of the biggest differences I see in Matthew Stafford this
year is that instead of involving his supporting cast like he
did for most of 2011, he seems to default to Johnson almost immediately
if his first read isn’t open (assuming Johnson isn’t
the first read) regardless of coverage. Brandon Pettigrew appeared
to be an afterthought in this game – which is understandable
considering the athletes the Eagles now have at linebacker –
but Titus Young may as well not even dress on Sundays. After enjoying
such a great offseason, Young is seeing on action on 75% of the
team’s offensive snaps but doesn’t appear to be all
that confident – he dropped a fairly easy deep ball in this
game after beating three defenders – and, as a result, Stafford
doesn’t appear to have much confidence in him. As I search
answers to the question of why Philadelphia is struggling so much
on offense, I ask myself, “When did Jason Avant become such
an afterthought in the gameplan?” Given his role as a third
receiver in this offense, Avant isn’t necessarily someone
opponents spend much time on, but he always seemed to be in the
right place at the right time when Michael Vick needed a first
down late in previous years. It may have taken a bit longer than
expected, but Nick Fairley lived up to his 2011 draft status in
this contest, doing his part to cause Michael Vick to throw both
of his interceptions and blowing up a number of run plays in the
backfield.
Fantasy implications: Lions OC Scott Linehan stated in the week
leading up to this game that he believed opposing defenses had
used zone coverage on all but about five plays against his offense
all season long. This goes a long way in explaining why Young
isn’t “lifting the lid” off the defense as well
as why Nate Burleson – the better route-runner – is
producing despite what supposed to be a passing of the torch.
It also helps to explain Detroit’s desire to run the ball
more often. In this game, however, I saw mostly man coverage from
the Eagles and the Lions were unable to exploit it for most of
the game as Johnson had just one catch after three quarters. In
the fourth quarter, however, Detroit got smart with Johnson and
used all the tricks in the book to beat man coverage (such as
fade stops and drag routes) that it wasn’t using through
the first 45 minutes. Given what I’ve seen in my review,
Young is droppable in deeper leagues. He is supposedly dealing
with a knee injury, but his only score this year was off a tipped
Hail Mary pass and, as I suggested above, he doesn’t appear
to be part of the gameplan. The Eagles’ offensive woes stem
from more than just the lack of use of Avant, but when Jeremy
Maclin is the only receiver opponents must fear over inside the
numbers and the offense isn’t calling many run plays, inconsistency
will occur. Pure and simple, Fairley was a difference maker in
this game. His possible emergence would mean the world to a secondary
that has been much less burnable than it was last season.
Patriots-Seahawks
Casual observers will simply look at the box score and say Russell
Wilson picked apart the Patriots’ defense. However, I’d
argue that his some of the skills he flashed before he even released
the ball impressed me more than any throw he made. On a handful
of plays in the first half alone, Wilson showed the athleticism
to create something out of nothing on more than one occasion.
But most impressively, I saw the movement skills inside the pocket
that had GM John Schneider comparing the rookie to Drew Brees
during the summer. If there was any doubt about New England being
a “matchup offense” prior to Week 6, there shouldn’t
be anymore. The Pats ran 85 plays, 58 of which were passes. So
how does a 58:27 pass-run ratio equate into a matchup-based offense?
New England averaged 3.3 YPC on the ground, which is a small number
for such a talented offense and not one it has to accept when
it has proven it doesn’t need balance to be an effective
passing team. Going forward, it is fair to suggest that Brady
will likely be throwing the most when the matchup in the run game
looks the most daunting.
Fantasy implications: Despite an impressive fantasy game in Week
6, Wilson’s time to shine probably isn’t going to
come this season for redraft-league owners simply because Seattle
will most likely be comfortably putting the brunt of the weight
on the defense and the running game. Wilson hasn’t eclipsed
27 pass attempts since Week 1, which is one reason why I feel
confident in making that prediction. But, as many have said before
me, Wilson already possesses all the “tools” he needs
to succeed in this league and his all-around skill-set figures
to make him a fantasy QB1 when the Seahawks decide to open up
their offense in 2013 or 2014. The Pats can generally work under
the assumption each week that if the ground game is ineffective,
Tom Brady has more weapons than the defense has studs to defend
them. Even the Seahawks, who have three Pro Bowlers in the secondary
and an above-average pass rush, had trouble keeping Brady under
400 yards passing.
Bills-Cardinals
Based on my analysis, LaRod Stephens-Howling was hit at the line
of scrimmage or behind it on just about every one of his 11 carries,
most of which were runs designed to be inside the tackles. The
one time I recall that he actually had good blocking – which
was another inside run that he bounced outside – he turned
it into an 11-yard gain. The fact he was used as the inside runner
in this game was somewhat mind-boggling, to say the least. William
Powell, on the other hand, seemed to benefit from better blocking
that one might expect from the Arizona line. But to be fair, Powell
outperformed “Hyphen” on similar runs and was generally
harder to bring down. Then again, outside of the way they were
used in this game, none of this should come as a big surprise
to anyone who has watched the two backs play. After noticing how
the Rams used Steven Jackson and Daryl Richardson, I was surprised
how much similarity I saw in how the Bills use Fred Jackson and
C.J. Spiller when both backs are healthy. Again, this inside-outside
usage isn’t surprising given their builds and styles, but
notable since both backs have been featured at some point.
Fantasy implications: One has to question the intelligence of
giving your 5-7, 185-pound third-down back all the inside runs
while the 5-9, 207-pound back gets to run all the counters and
screens designed to get players to the edge of the defense. It
happened consistently enough that I am willing to conclude Arizona
was just “changing it up” on Buffalo because I’ve
seen the Cardinals use LSH in the same way they utilized Powell
in this contest. I was also surprised to discover “Hyphen”
wasn’t even targeted in the passing game until overtime,
when he received both of them on first and second down before
John Skelton threw his game-changing interception. With that said,
Powell was my recommendation in this backfield prior to last week
and he will continue to be my recommendation. He was the Cardinals
RB I was most impressed with during the preseason as well, which
is why I selected him as Arizona’s candidate for the “next
Victor Cruz” in my Bold
Predictions article. As long as both Bills’ RB stay
healthy, my initial impression is that Jackson will be more useful
in games like Tennessee this week in which the opponent either
has trouble tackling or is “soft” up the middle and
Spiller will be more useful in comeback-mode games or against
teams that have poor tacklers in the secondary.
Vikings-Redskins
It’s a small matter – especially since Percy Harvin
is such a dynamic player – but it is worth noting how much
Harvin has appeared in the backfield instead of Adrian Peterson
in recent weeks. I’m fairly certain this trend can be chalked
up primarily to an offense that doesn’t feel like it can
run down close to the goal line without a completely-recovered
Peterson because of a below-average line. (When I say “below-average”,
I’m referring to poor run-blocking grades of LG Charlie
Johnson and LT Matt Kalil – who incidentally is dominating
as a pass blocker). One way to cover that weakness up in the red
zone (we’ll get into AP’s poor red-zone numbers in
a bit) is to spread the field with three- or four-receiver sets
and run draws with the most explosive player on the team right
now, which is Harvin. If and when that isn’t producing the
desired result, well, let’s just say there’s a reason
Kyle Rudolph already has five touchdowns. I’m anticipating
the day when opposing defenses start to put eight and maybe nine
men in the box against the Redskins. As long as Pierre Garcon
is limited – which appears as if it is going to be that
way for a while – the Redskins simply don’t have anyone
at receiver right now who brings near the big-play threat Robert
Griffin III does as a runner. Fred Davis has that kind of potential,
but strangely does not appear to be part of the regular gameplan
each week.
Fantasy implications: Owners looking for some kind of rationale
as to why AP hasn’t scored since Week 1 don’t need
to look any further than the fact that he isn’t doing anything
in the red zone when he gets his shot. Since his two-TD debut,
Peterson has 14 carries for 11 yards inside the 20! To put
that number into some perspective, Peterson and Arian Foster were
tied for No. 1 overall (among backs with at least 25 red-zone
carries) at 3.1 YPC inside the 20 last season. But none of this
is meant to take anything away from Peterson, who is performing
at a much higher than any of us could have expected. RG3 has the
potential to be everything we hoped Michael Vick would become
years ago. The power of Alfred Morris should ensure that defenses
don’t use nickel packages to try and match speed with Griffin
while his accuracy is already good enough that defenses are hesitant
to leave their cornerbacks on an island. With that said, it doesn’t
make a lot of sense for defenses to allow RG3 to beat them with
the ball in his hands as a runner when they can force an aging
Santana Moss or injured Garcon to do it. Until that happens, however,
owners need to treat RG3 as the incredibly productive fantasy
player he is. The risk is obviously high for any quarterback who
runs as much as he does, but his talent is undeniable.
Giants-Niners
Domenik Hixon may not be the most durable receiver and he may
be no higher than third on the depth chart, but there is no doubt
in my mind now why the Giants have stayed the course with him
through all of his injuries. While he lacks the physical presence
of Hakeem Nicks or the elite cat-like quickness of Victor Cruz,
I have been consistently impressed by the different ways he makes
plays all over the field. Whereas Mario Manningham was mostly
a deep receiver at the end of last season, Hixon has a great chance
to be a key contributor all season long, particularly if Nicks
looks as limited as he did in this contest. Perhaps the one aspect
of San Francisco’s game that stuck out the most to me –
besides the inability to establish Frank Gore or contain the Giants’
running game late – was the degree to which Colin Kaepernick
was involved. While it is hard to get a gauge on HC Jim Harbaugh’s
long-term plan at quarterback with blowouts in three consecutive
games (two wins, one loss), the second-year signal-caller was
involved in the action when he was in the game (meaning he personally
ran the ball himself or passed on nine of his 17 snaps in Week
6.
Fantasy implications: The Giants’ depth at a number of
key positions is nothing short of incredible. Obviously, Eli Manning’s
presence goes a long way in making the receivers look good, but
it is still worth mentioning that five New York wideouts have
each recorded at least 82 yards in a game less than halfway through
the season. Getting back to Hixon, his rest-of-the-season role
will obviously depend on how often the injury-prone Nicks is available
to play. However, I’m convinced after watching Hixon over
the past couple of weeks that he is a player worth keeping on
fantasy rosters in even the shallowest of leagues for the remainder
of the season. In all likelihood, the Niners are using Kaepernick
as a change-up to Smith and nothing more, especially since Alex
Smith has been reborn under Harbaugh. Still, it has to be a bit
concerning to Smith and his owners that Kaepernick is getting
a series here or there. Whether he wants to or not, Harbaugh is
certainly inviting talk that Smith’s grasp on the job may
not last past this season.
Packers-Texans
Slight pushoffs by Jordy Nelson notwithstanding, this game was
confirmation for me that Texans CB Johnathan Joseph is playing
hurt. Since reports surfaced about a groin injury before Houston’s
Monday Night Football game against the Jets in Week 5, the player
who essentially shut down Demaryius Thomas in Week 3 and A.J.
Green in the playoffs last season has been burned repeatedly by
the likes of Jeremy Kerley, Jason Hill and the previously-struggling
Nelson. Another troubling sign was the Texans’ complete
inability to establish their ground game or even block effectively
against a Packers’ defense missing NT B.J. Raji. When Owen
Daniels or LT Duane Brown wasn’t setting the edge against
Clay Matthews (not an unforgivable crime), it was the interior
blocking that was failing. And on the rare occasion there was
a cutback lane, neither Foster nor Ben Tate could find their footing.
Although I could certainly discuss the proficiency of Green Bay’s
passing game, I think it is safe to say nothing is wrong with
that part of the Packers’ offense. Most notably, however,
was that Green Bay played with a pace and urgency I had not seen
from them at any point this season. As I suggested last week,
I feel the loss of Cedric Benson actually helps this offense because
it forces the Packers to play more aggressively and use Randall
Cobb as an extension of the running game.
Fantasy implications: At this point, Houston fans should hope
that Joseph sits outs this week against Baltimore and uses the
Week 8 bye to recover. Joseph and Danieal Manning – along
with the hiring of DC Wade Phillips – are the single biggest
reasons this pass defense has improved so much from the porous
unit the Texans had prior to their arrivals. Most likely, the
awful performance of the Texans’ running game is just a
one-time thing, but it is worth mentioning that Foster is averaging
25 carries a game and on pace for 400 carries, so with Tate having
done next to nothing for about four weeks, now is the time for
Foster owners to secure his handcuff. I don’t think it was
coincidence that Green Bay enjoyed its best offensive in the same
game Cobb was heavily utilized. While he didn’t get into
the end zone, Cobb’s ability to work the slot means opponents
must account for every part of the field. Perhaps Greg Jennings’
eventual return changes Cobb’s role, but I’m willing
to bet he maintains WR3 value in fantasy going forward.
Broncos-Chargers
San Diego cannot be expected to function in the passing game
if Ryan Mathews is being bottled up and/or LT Jared Gaither is
out. LT Mike Harris was the talk of the preseason, but he and
RT Jeromey Clary have no shot at protecting Philip Rivers against
the likes of Elvis Dumervil and Von Miller without the threat
of the run. Antonio Gates still has it. While he still doesn’t
look nearly as quick as he did during the preseason, he can still
make safeties and linebackers look ridiculous. Gates has been
the victim of some bad luck – rib injury, pass interference
calls, etc. – that have made people question his ability,
but he proved in this game he is still very much a player that
Rivers will target relentlessly. And let’s not forget Eric
Decker, who could have easily enjoyed a game that would have made
Jordy Nelson jealous if not for: 1) a temporary lack of balance
that would have added 30 yards and another touchdown to his totals
and 2) a bogus pass interference call that wiped out a 28-yard
gain at the very least. Although he is considered a possession
receiver by most, Decker can get deep and has better ball skills
– especially in the air – than most believe.
Fantasy implications: There was some discussion taking place
during the offseason that Rivers had lost a great deal of arm
strength, which contributed to his high interception total last
season. While there may be some truth to that, his decision-making
was particularly poor in this game, which could be just as much
compensating for a loss of arm strength as it knowing he no longer
has the likes of Marcus McNeill, Kris Dielman and Nick Hardwick
in their primes protecting him. After the Chargers’ bye
this week, they will have a chance to execute HC Norv Turner’s
edict of protecting the football and reducing risk at the expense
of producing big plays. This new plan will begin in earnest against
the Browns and Chiefs, two teams that rank among the top 10 friendliest
matchups for RBs, so Mathews’ workload should not be in
question. Even though both Cleveland and Kansas City have kept
TEs in check so far, I would expect Gates to be the primary focus
of Turner’s new low-risk offensive plan. Decker is doing
just about what I expected in that while Demaryius Thomas draws
most of the attention because of his big-play ability, he has
a slight edge over Thomas in targets and isn’t that far
away from having about 100 more receiving yards and 2-3 more touchdowns.
Suggestions, comments, musings about the article
or fantasy football in general? E-mail
me or follow me on Twitter.
Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006, appeared in USA
Today’s Fantasy Football Preview magazine in each of the last
two seasons and served as a weekly fantasy football analyst for
106.7 The Fan (WJFK – Washington, D.C). He is also a member
of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. |