Even though Jeremy Maclin and Dennis Pitta do not reside in the division we’ll cover this week, their season-ending injuries started training camp off with a resounding thud. Just as the coaches and general managers of the Philadelphia Eagles and Baltimore Ravens must adjust to their new realities without their top receivers, fantasy owners must also re-examine our new reality when it comes to how it affects their teammates.

Season-ending injuries at any time of the year are unfortunate. However, if they are going to happen – and they will – fantasy owners should be thankful for the ones that happen now as opposed to Week 1 or Week 2. Maclin’s injury takes one receiver away from a very deep pool of receivers while Pitta’s absence will only increase the importance of landing a premier tight end early. The losses of Aaron Hernandez and Pitta have sapped the position of the players most likely to post near-elite numbers at a more reasonable cost than Jimmy Graham or Rob Gronkowski.

In my AFC and NFC East Projection article two weeks ago, I spoke about how one key injury can create a “ripple effect” for the entire team, but the ripples do not stop there. Opponents can now consistently bring a safety over the top of DeSean Jackson, leave the other safety in the box to help against what we believe will be a run-heavy attack from new HC Chip Kelly and take their chances that Riley Cooper can beat single coverage 5-8 times per game. James Casey might take on a bigger role than he was going to have as a movable chess piece that can get down the field while Zach Ertz may be forced into duty earlier than the Eagles would have liked. Fewer explosive pass plays probably means less scoring for the offense, which likely means more “desperation passing” for either Michael Vick or Nick Foles and more time on the field for the Eagles’ defense – making the Philadelphia defense more attractive for opposing players to go against in fantasy.

For Baltimore, the loss of Pitta and Anquan Boldin means the team lacks a proven slot option and drops Joe Flacco down several pegs. The Ravens figured to lean heavily on the run this year anyway, but the team will almost certainly struggle on third down and in the red zone without Flacco’s favorite red-zone target. Ed Dickson was already in line for an increased role before the injury and will pick up a bit of Pitta’s slack while Ray Rice figures to now push his career high in receptions, but even the two of them combined can’t realistically expect to make up for the likely 65-75 catches that Pitta probably was going to collect. It is entirely possible the Ravens will see a ton of blitzes as a result and – barring the emergence of an unproven player like Deonte Thompson, Tommy Streeter or Tandon Doss – may settle for a lot more field goals than they would care to in 2013. Like Philadelphia, garbage-time passing and worn-out defenses could become the norm.

Fortunately, I’ll spend as much time as necessary to make sure you are still the smartest person in the draft room. In two weeks, the first of three Big Boards will hit the site. In the meantime, let’s discuss the one geographical area – the South – that didn’t get hit by an injury (let’s not forget Denver C Dan Koppen). Here’s a quick refresher of what each of the colors mean in each team’s projection chart below:

Red – A very difficult matchup. For lower-level players, a red matchup means they should not be used in fantasy that week. For a second- or third-tier player, drop your expectations for them at least one grade that week (i.e. from WR2 to WR3). For elite players, expect them to perform one level lower than their usual status (i.e. RB1 performs like a RB2).

Yellow – Keep expectations fairly low in this matchup. For lower-level players, a yellow matchup is a borderline start at best. For a second- or third-tier player, they can probably overcome the matchup if things fall right. For the elite players, expect slightly better than average production.

White – Basically, this matchup is one that could go either way. In some cases, I just don’t feel like I have a good feel yet for this defense. Generally speaking, these matchups are winnable matchups for all levels of players.

Green – It doesn’t get much better than this. For non-elite players, the stage is basically set for said player to exploit the matchup. For the elite player, this matchup should produce special numbers.

Here are some final notes to help you understand what you see below in the tables:

Notes:

1. The gray highlight in each team’s schedule reflects a road game and the numbers above them correspond to the weeks of the season.
   
   
2. These are my initial projections and therefore subject to change. In a few cases, the changes will be dramatic. Changes may come in the form of a different-colored matchup and/or a player’s “game log”. In some cases, a strong preseason may warrant the inclusion of one name in a team projection and the removal of another.
   
   
3. For all those readers whose eyes gravitate immediately to the player’s final numbers: they are 15-game totals because most fantasy seasons have a Week 16 title game. Additionally, players with fewer than 10 projected catches or 100 projected yards have been removed, which will explain the discrepancy in some of the quarterback’s final numbers.
   
   
4. The age you see by each player will be that player’s age as of September 1, 2013.
   

Key to the table below:

PPR Aver - Points per game in full-point PPR leagues where all touchdowns are worth six points.
NPPR Aver - Points per game in non-PPR leagues where all touchdowns are worth six points.
PPR - Total points scored in PPR
Non-PPR - Total points scored in non-PPR.

AFC South

Matchup analysis: The Texans’ ability to navigate through their schedule in 2013 will depend largely on the improvement the right side of the offensive line has made. If they approach anything close to the level they played at in 2011, then even Seattle and San Francisco don’t pose a great threat even though those defenses will probably do the best job of keeping the running game in check. Between the Chargers, Ravens, Seahawks and Niners (perhaps even the Rams), the first-half schedule is littered with teams capable of limiting the effectiveness of a struggling right side. The post-bye slate is much more forgiving in that only the Patriots and Broncos (and maybe the Cardinals) figure to have the personnel to bottle up Foster and/or Tate. IF the Texans decided to open up the passing game a bit, however, Schaub could easily enjoy his best year since 2009. While Houston’s passing game could have some issues in the four games leading into the bye, most of the teams before and after that stretch are either breaking new (or young) corners, have questionable safety play or possess some the least-talented defensive backs in the league. After the Texans’ Week 4-7 stretch, it is conceivable that Denver is the only opponent of slowing down Johnson, Hopkins and Daniels. In short, if any of the three main pass-catchers has a poor season, it is unlikely to be because of the quality of their opponents.

Matchup analysis: There is potential for significant peaks and valleys for the passing game, particularly if Wayne starts to feel his age a bit this season. The Colts face the top two NFC West defenses, Denver and Miami over the first seven weeks, all of which should be able to generate a significant pass rush and play a bit of coverage as well. Houston and St. Louis represent two of the best defenses Indianapolis will face over the second half of the schedule before the fantasy postseason, although the fantasy playoff slate could be the most challenging multi-week stretch of the season for Wayne & Co. if the Bengals, Texans and Chiefs are all healthy at that point. As dominant as the receivers should be in the first half, the tight ends could easily take over in the second half. As a result, both Allen and Fleener could (and probably should) be midseason trade targets in fantasy. The emphasis on the running game is a noble one in theory, but did the Colts do enough up front to succeed against 10 opponents (during the fantasy schedule) who finished in the top half of rush defense – in terms of YPC – last season? Bradshaw and Ballard face a number of those teams over the first nine weeks of the season, making them possible fantasy trade-deadline targets as well.

Matchup analysis: It is conceivable that MJD has one more banner season – in a contract year no less – but he’s not going to catch a lot of breaks against a rather unforgiving run schedule. The team added highly-regarded LT Luke Joeckel (who will play on the right side in 2013) in the draft, but did little to improve the interior of the line, where Jones-Drew typically does the majority of his damage. Furthermore, the Jags may get off to a slow start running the ball regardless as they will be attempting to become one of a growing number of teams to embrace the zone-blocking scheme. The second half of the schedule looks more manageable for MJD, Forsett and possibly even Robinson with three straight home games to close out the fantasy season, but all three opponents should be better stopping the run than they were last season. Those teams (Houston, Buffalo and Tennessee) could also put together enough offense to force the Jags to abandon their running game early in the second half as well. Shorts has a treacherous slate to navigate, with many of his snaps coming against the likes of Brandon Flowers, Richard Sherman, Champ Bailey, Patrick Peterson, Johnathan Joseph (twice) and Stephon Gilmore. Blackmon probably won’t draw near the attention Shorts will and, as a result, could be a fantasy playoff stud if the new staff can get him to maximize his potential. Lewis should have an easier path to success than his receiver brethren and could emerge as a valuable contributor for the first time since 2010 assuming Henne wins the job, but only time will tell if Bradley and Fisch come to the same conclusion most fantasy owners have already reached about what quarterback should be starting.

Matchup analysis: Unless the rebuilt offensive line quickly establishes itself as one of the league’s most dominant units, it is highly likely that critics of Johnson (and his inconsistency in fantasy) will have plenty to chirp about through the first 9-10 weeks of the season. It is during this time that it will be important that Johnson is playing a key role in the passing game if he has any hope to prove them wrong. And while part of Greene’s new role will be to keep CJ2K fresh, it isn’t as if Johnson’s speed or Greene’s power figure to be all that effective against the Steelers, Texans, Chargers or the three NFC West teams they will face from Week 6-9. Starting in Week 10, however, Johnson and Greene could pay off in a big way behind an offensive line that will have worked out most of its timing issues, increasing the chances both of Tennessee’s backs will be solid fantasy trade-deadline options. The same can basically be said about Locker & Co., but a slow start against a brutal schedule could end up getting him benched – if he doesn’t get injured first. If Locker has any degree of fantasy success against his early opponents, it might be because he is a solid bet to rush for 20-40 yards per game. Britt, like Johnson, is a matchup nightmare that has the talent to put up strong fantasy numbers against any opponent. If he can flash 2010 or early 2011 form in September, the team’s other receivers (Washington, Wright and Hunter) all have enough talent to post huge games against single coverage. But for this offense to maximize its potential, Johnson has to draw up the extra defender, Locker has to be accurate enough to make the defense pay for it and Britt has to stay healthy.

NFC South

Matchup analysis: In Jackson, the passing game adds an element out of the backfield that it did not have last season, which will come in handy as the Falcons face a number of potentially good secondaries from the NFC West, AFC East and in their own division (Tampa Bay). But even as good as each of those opponents have it in their back four, only Seattle and perhaps Tampa Bay have the talent and depth necessary to keep Jones, White and Gonzalez somewhat in check…and that is where Jackson’s abilities as a receiver should really make a difference. Because so few teams have two above-average cornerbacks, defenses that have a “shadow” cornerback will have to pick their poison between Jones and White, with the likelihood being that coordinators will simply try to take away the “hot” receiver when there isn’t a clear size-speed matchup. Gonzalez is sure to have some down weeks – if only because the receivers could dominate their fair share of games – but with safeties so preoccupied with the receivers, linebackers will see a lot of time against him. Jackson himself admitted he may not be doing a lot of running early in games this season, but there is little doubt he will be converting his share of goal-line scores to make up for it. Despite his age and the likelihood he might not see 300 carries, Jackson may be one of the few matchup-proof backs in fantasy in 2013.