“Evolution is a process of constant branching and expansion.”
- Stephen Jay Gould, American paleontologist, evolutionary biologist and science historian

When I began writing “Preseason Schedule Analysis” back in 2008, the goal was to easily and quickly identify positive and negative matchups. Even though analytics had already been put to work in other sports, websites like Pro Football Focus were either in their infancy or had not been created yet, so metrics like “average depth of target” (aDOT) were nonexistent. Furthermore, most NFL fans didn’t have the ability to watch more than 3-4 games a week at broadcast angle and they certainly weren’t going to be able to study all 16 at their computer.

Football has certainly evolved since that time and so have the metrics we use to break the game down. In the beginning, it was enough for me to consider a team like Baltimore or Pittsburgh to be bad news for every fantasy player they faced. Now, my PMAs consider factors such as the likelihood of how often a certain receiver will play in the slot and the quality of the defender that projects to be the nickel corner – and how he matches up against him physically. Mismatch opportunities are incredibly important in today’s game, so a thorough and accurate analysis of potential matchups to target and avoid is one easy way for an owner to gain a serious advantage on his competition.

“You must always be able to predict what's next and then have the flexibility to evolve.”
- Marc Benioff, chairman and CEO of salesforce.com

It is important to keep an open mind and be willing to slightly alter a successful product or process in order to stay ahead of the competition and also give a more informed consumer what he or she needs. The PMA series and Big Boards have been a success based on the feedback I have received over the years, but the time has come for the process to evolve. (Much will stay the same, however, so there is no need to worry.) Let’s briefly detail at some of the reasons why changes needed to be made:

1) Time – Some analysts are able to hammer out their projections in less than a week and it works fine for them. That’s not my style because I want to know that I considered as many relevant factors as possible; that kind of analysis takes time. However, projecting each player for 32 teams is a huge undertaking that often took me well over a month. That’s too long.

2) Flexibility – A good “system” should be easily adaptable. In other words, it shouldn’t be difficult to plug in the unique lineup requirements and scoring rules from one reader and hammer out a top 100 if necessary. That wasn’t happening either.

Furthermore, since the values that I attach to each player on my Big Boards were projection-driven, it left me little wiggle room in terms of how I stacked the board. A ranking system has to be able to account for a talent that may emerge in the second half of the season and just needs to wait his turn. While I was accounting for that possibility during the projection phase of my PMAs, I had to try to pin it down to a certain week. As we all know, that is very difficult to do.

3) The chaos of the NFL season – This is the big one. We can spend all summer talking about and/or projecting how Player X is going to do this or Player Y is going to do that. Then, a Week 1 season-ending injury or Week 3 depth-chart change renders those projections moot. The latter is sometimes predictable, but projecting a season’s worth of stats for a player that isn’t playing after September seems unnecessary.

There are other reasons why change was necessary, but that gives you a general idea of why the PMAs had to evolve. No longer will I project a full season, but blocks of four games. Coaches often divide the season into four quarters and tend to make personnel and/or schematic adjustments around the end of the “first quarter”. As such, I plan on doing the same and am committed to providing second-, third- and fourth-quarter projections in the All-Out Blitz after Weeks 4, 8 and 12 moving forward.

Below you will see my initial first-quarter projections for each of the eight total teams in the AFC and NFC East. I have color-coded the matchups for the full season, however, because I still think it is essential for owners to know what they are signing up for in the second half of the season (and especially the fantasy playoffs) when they select a certain player. The stat projections and schedule analysis will still factor into the overall ranking of a player on my Big Boards, but will be one of about six or seven position-specific attributes that will be weighted, graded and scored. Those attributes, their explanations and the overall grades will make their first appearance on the Big Boards in mid-August. I’m aware this probably sounds needlessly complex and even more time-consuming, but believe me when I say I think it will probably cut my time in half and, more importantly, end up being a better product in the end.

Here’s a quick refresher of what each of the colors mean in each team’s projection chart below:

Red – A very difficult matchup. For lower-level players, a red matchup means they should not be used in fantasy that week. For a second- or third-tier player, drop your expectations for them at least one grade that week (i.e. from WR2 to WR3). For elite players, expect them to perform one level lower than their usual status (i.e. RB1 performs like a RB2).

Yellow – Keep expectations fairly low in this matchup. For lower-level players, a yellow matchup is a borderline start at best. For a second- or third-tier player, they can probably overcome the matchup if things fall right. For the elite players, expect slightly better than average production.

White – Basically, this is a neutral matchup. In some cases, I just don’t feel like I have a good feel yet for the defense. Generally speaking, these matchups are winnable matchups for all levels of players.

Green – It doesn’t get much better than this. For non-elite players, the stage is basically set for said player to exploit the matchup. For the elite player, this matchup should produce special numbers.

For an example as to the amount of possibilities and factors I consider, take a look below at the Miami Dolphins’ projections. Jarvis Landry does not have a single “red” on his schedule because: 1) players like the New York Jets’ Darrelle Revis and Indianapolis Colts’ Vontae Davis rarely move into the slot when a player like Landry slides inside and 2) although I am high on corners like the Jets’ Buster Skrine or the Philadelphia Eagles’ Brandon Boykin to defend him, I doubt either player will shut him down. Furthermore, slot work figures to only be part of what Landry does, so he’ll probably see Revis and Antonio Cromartie line up across from him anyway at certain points. That is why he gets a yellow and not a red or a white. In other cases (which I will discuss as we move along with these projections), players like Davis play on only one side of the ball while virtually every receiver will see time on the left and right side of the formation. In still other cases, the quality of the quarterback (Buffalo, for example) can take a potential green matchup and turn into a neutral one. As you can tell, a lot of thought goes into the color-coding system.

Other important notes:

- The gray highlight in each team’s schedule reflects a road game and the numbers above them correspond to the weeks of the season. Black boxes represent bye weeks. The age you see by each player will be that player’s age as of September 1, 2015.

- These are my initial projections and therefore subject to change. In a few cases, the changes will be dramatic. In other words, don’t be alarmed if the projections on the Big Boards are different from the ones you see here.

Key to the table below:

PPR Aver - Points per game in full-point PPR leagues where all touchdowns are worth six points.
NPPR Aver - Points per game in non-PPR leagues where all touchdowns are worth six points.
PPR - Total points scored in PPR
Non-PPR - Total points scored in non-PPR.

AFC East

Matchup analysis: This offense figures to go about as far as McCoy and his likely 300-plus carries can take it. In a statement that will be repeated throughout this article, the AFC East should be a beast defensively. That opinion is reflected in the seven yellows and three reds handed out to both McCoy and Jackson, who figures to play a pure backup role this season. The pre-bye slate is more than manageable for McCoy, who could be one of the league’s leading rushers after Week 7. Not only should he have volume on his side, but the defense should keep just about every game in favorable running conditions (with the Bills in the lead or down by no more than one score) for Buffalo. Coming out of the break, McCoy faces a daunting schedule that makes the first half look like a cakewalk. Houston (4.0 YPC allowed) and Philadelphia (3.7) both finished in the top 10 in defending the run – in terms of yards per carry – and substantially upgraded their ability to stuff it in the offseason. The addition of DT Ndamukong Suh in Miami and NT Terrance Knighton in Washington should significantly improve those teams’ rush defenses as well, making it unlikely that McCoy will carry his fantasy teams in the second half of the season.

Few teams with dominant defenses that promise volume in the running game do so if they have some clarity at quarterback, which the Bills do not. The trio of Cassel, Manuel and Taylor could have Buffalo trying to lure Kyle Orton out of retirement by midseason if recent history is any indication. That fact alone makes counting on any Buffalo quarterback, receiver or tight end a risky proposition this season. Watkins’ natural talent (and the general lack of shadow corners and/or defenses with two quality corners on the schedule) means he only has one red matchup on his schedule (Week 10 against the Jets), but weekly consistency could be an issue for his fantasy owners. Harvin should see his share of gadget plays and is the likely slot receiver on a team that won’t be looking to take many chances in the passing game, so he has that working for him. The overall lack of volume in the passing game will be a problem for him, however, making it very unlikely he can be anything more than a WR4. Clay should also benefit from Buffalo’s conservative offensive nature and has a favorable enough schedule that he may not see much drop-off from his days in Miami.

Matchup analysis: Anyone betting the over on Miller topping his production from last year (216 carries for 1,099 yards and eight touchdowns; 38 catches for 275 yards and another score) should probably reconsider. Not only will his 5.1 YPC be hard to repeat against an absolute meat-grinder of a schedule, but the fourth-year back will probably also be forced to share more work with Ajayi than he would like. While nothing in fantasy is inarguable, the likelihood the Bills (twice), Jets, Texans and Eagles will have good rush defenses this season is pretty high. There are five of the Dolphins’ first nine games. The schedule lightens up a bit after Week 10, but no so much that Miller’s owners should breathe a sigh of relief. For what it is worth, Miami’s running game could really excel during the fantasy playoffs.

As treacherous as things appear for Miller and Ajayi, the passing game appears to have it easy by comparison. The Bills (Weeks 3 and 9), Jets (Weeks 4 and 12) and Ravens (Week 13) figure to slow down a healthy Parker, assuming he is a quick study and can overcome missing the bulk of the preseason. Landry figures to do a lot of his work out of the slot again this year and shouldn’t ever have to face a top corner there – Philadelphia’s Brandon Boykin will be one of the better ones he sees in Week 10 – so owners hoping for another PPR-friendly season from the second-year wideout should be satisfied with his output, especially considering how often the running game could stall. Tannehill was reportedly throwing a good deep ball in offseason workouts, so keep that in mind in regards to Stills, who could easily outperform his current ADP (12th round) for owners if Parker struggles to stay on the field. Speaking of durability, Cameron could be incredible value if he can avoid yet another concussion. He could a difference-maker in fantasy starting in Week 11 if stays healthy. As his matchup schedule clearly shows, Tannehill may a bit hit-or-miss before the fantasy playoffs and a tough player to trust once the postseason begins. He has the supporting cast and talent to produce regardless, but a lot of the former depends on Parker and Cameron staying off the injury report.

Matchup analysis: The NFL’s painstakingly slow approach to handing out discipline (or ruling on appeals) keeps us in the dark about Brady, so for the purposes of this article, we’ll assume the league will uphold his four-game suspension and the expected court battle that is likely to follow won’t see a judge hand down a decision until after the start of the season. That means Garoppolo will be at the controls of the offense through Week 5, which should incrementally drive down the price of just about every receiver in New England. It’s not that the second-year Eastern Illinois alum can’t serve as an adequate fill-in for Brady, but doesn’t it seem like a good approach for the Patriots to go run-heavy in at least three of those four games? Owners may want to get their fill of Blount in the first half of the season, however, because very little figures to come easy on the ground after Week 6. That could mean that the winner of camp competition between White and Cadet could become a PPR dynamo, although predicting the week-to-week whims of Bill Belichick & Co. is a game owners will lose more often than they will win.

While Gronkowski gets favorable treatment here in part because he has established himself as such an unstoppable force in the league, I would have assigned plenty of green to a player like Chandler too. In case you were curious, Gronkowski’s most difficult stretch should be during Weeks 11-14. Buffalo (first), Houston (second) and Philadelphia (third) were the three most difficult defenses for opposing tight ends to score against in fantasy last year. Although Brady’s likely absence should reduce the effectiveness of the majority of New England’s passing attack, Edelman figures to run the same high-percentage routes for Garoppolo. Even with the benefit of doubt I gave Gronkowski on multiple matchups, the former Kent State quarterback should have it even easier than the All-Pro tight end. Because he does so much of his damage out of the slot, the stiffest competition Edelman figures to face is potentially the Jets’ Buster Skrine in Weeks 7 and 16 as well as Boykin in Week 13. The schedule is much less favorable for LaFell and/or Dobson, assuming the latter doesn’t have a strong camp and end up splitting time with the former. LaFell’s emergence in 2014 was definitely a byproduct of playing with Brady. It’s not fair to say that matchups don’t matter against the greats of the game like Brady, but the fact of the matter is they typically get their 300-plus yards and two-plus touchdowns in any game in which the situation calls for it. In other words, players like LaFell and Dobson may appear have a daunting schedule (and they do), but all the yellow and red boxes really represent in their cases are games in which they shouldn’t produce under “normal” circumstances.

Matchup analysis: The first thing the general fan thinks of when they hear or read the term “spread offense” is “pass-heavy”. It’s a common fallacy, although one can probably assume the 2015 Jets will throw a bit more than the 2014 edition, which ranked 27th in the league in attempts with 498. It’s also the right move after Mornhinweg foolishly tried to fit Geno Smith into his West Coast offense as opposed to incorporating more spread concepts (which is the offense Smith thrived in at West Virginia). And the good news for the New York skill position players is that if Smith cannot thrive in Gailey’s system early, the Jets made a move to bring in a quarterback that has already enjoyed a fair amount of success in his offense in Fitzpatrick. With a lack of top-level shadow corners on the schedule – Buffalo’s Stephon Gilmore and the New York Giants’ Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie are the only ones that appear likely to fill that role – Marshall and Decker’s schedules look remarkably similar, with a fair amount of advantageous second-half matchups. Obviously, the play at quarterback will ultimately determine whether or not the two wideouts can take advantage of it. Owners can expect Amaro to be used in the way he should have been used under Mornhinweg – in the slot and as a “move” tight end – but the schedule doesn’t appear to be overly favorable.

The nice thing about Gailey is that he has shown the ability to be flexible with his offenses and that includes relying on the running game when necessary as well as molding his offense to the unique talents of his personnel. (He was the play-caller in Buffalo when Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller – two completely different backs – enjoyed their finest fantasy seasons in back-to-back years.) Whether or not the Jets opted to bring in Ridley and Stacy to push Ivory or protect themselves against an injury, Ivory has never been trusted to be a true three-down back. That projects to be a big problem against a fairly difficult schedule and behind a line that graded poorly in run blocking (according to PFF) outside of C Nick Mangold a season ago. Powell appears to have a pretty good hold on the backup job and most of the passing-down work for now in this offense, meaning there is an outside chance he becomes the Jets’ most valuable fantasy back in PPR leagues. Of course, if Geno proves to be a revelation under Gailey, Ivory could easily end up really paying off for his owners. With better offensive personnel, the huge upgrade in play-calling and Ivory’s tackle-breaking ability, the ex-Saint could be in line for 8-10 touchdowns.


NFC East

Matchup analysis: The Cowboys believe their rushing attack will be just fine without Murray. For the first month of the season, they could very well be right. After that, all bets are off. And for those forward-thinking owners, the time to sell your stock in the Dallas running game might be after Week 10. With Murray still on the team, the league’s best offensive line would have been a solid bet to win the majority of the six yellow matchups on the schedule. I’m not sure that will be the case with Randle, who has posted 11-17-1, 19-65-0, 14-26-0 and 13-37-0 lines in the four games in which he has received at least 10 carries. (It is worth noting the first three of those contests came in 2013.) This assumes, of course, that he wins a camp competition with McFadden, who is either done or right in the mix to share carries with Randle – depending on who you listen to. The Cowboys’ all-world front five will make whichever back it blocks for look better than he is and that should come as some comfort to the owners that are comfortable in selecting them. Even if one of the two have assumed lead-back duties by the time the fantasy playoffs roll around, it would take a lot of backbone to start him against the Jets and/or Bills in Weeks 15 and 16. Owners hoping to get a preview of those potential fantasy postseason performances may want to check out the Week 8 showdown with Seattle, which will almost certainly be the best run defense Dallas will face during the first 13 games of the season.

Bryant had to exercise a bit of patience to get his five-year deal done last week. Patience isn’t something his owners should need, however, as the reigning league leader in touchdown receptions has a number of winnable matchups before the bye. As is usually the case with a dominant talent like Bryant, only a lack of volume figures to keep him in check against most opponents. It will be fascinating to watch him square off against Revis in Week 15 – one of three likely shadow corners he will face (the Giants’ Rodgers-Cromartie and Bills’ Gilmore are the others) – but only Revis is good enough to give Bryant’s owners some pause. Romo spoke glowingly about Williams during offseason workouts and it wouldn’t be all that surprising if he begins to show that he is something more than an inconsistent deep threat in his third year in the league. However, his schedule isn’t all that conducive to a breakout and it seems unlikely he’ll be a regular target with Bryant and Witten still around. Witten figures to benefit more than any other Cowboy from whatever falloff the running game suffers post-Murray, although half of the teams on the back half of Dallas’ schedule either kept what that had or upgraded their back seven. Romo’s connection with Witten has been built over the course of many years, however, so another 60-70 catch season is probably in the works. There’s almost no chance Romo remains as efficient as he was last season, but more volume should help balance it out for fantasy purposes. He’s going to be a risky play in the fantasy postseason, though, with cold-weather games in Green Bay and Buffalo sandwiching a home date with the Jets.