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Doug Orth | Archive | Email |
Staff Writer


First Quarter Projections - AFC & NFC West
Preseason Matchup Analysis
8/11/15

East | North | South | West

A d v e r t i s e m e n t

Outside of the handful of fantasy draft days I have each year in late August and early September, there might not be a time I look forward to more than when I get to set up the Big Boards.

While the release date of my first set of Big Boards is still unknown at this time, there is a good chance I will have the first ones done by the start of this weekend – a few days ahead of my usual Tuesday preseason deadline. I plan on adding a fourth Big Board for those drafters playing in The Fantasy Championship and, if time allows, the FFPC. I’ve discussed some of the changes that are coming with the Big Boards over the past few weeks and I’m convinced they will allow me to transition much easier across different scoring setups, thus allowing me to do the extra work. There’s a good chance by completing a set of rankings for PPR, 0.5 PPR and standard scoring as well as the TFC and the FFPC, I will be able to offer a Big Board that will be useful to just about anybody that visits this site.

Over the last three weeks, I’ve forecasted the first four games for the AFC and NFC East, the AFC and NFC North and the AFC and NFC South. By default, that leaves us with the AFC and NFC West. Let’s dig in.

Below you will see my initial first-quarter projections for each of the eight total teams in the AFC and NFC West. I have color-coded the matchups for the full season, however, because I still think it is essential for owners to know what they are signing up for in the second half of the season (and especially the fantasy playoffs) when they select a certain player. The stat projections and schedule analysis will still factor into the overall ranking of a player on my Big Boards, but will be one of about six or seven position-specific attributes that will be weighted, graded and scored. Those attributes, their explanations and the overall grades will make their first appearance on the Big Boards in mid-August.

Here’s a quick refresher of what each of the colors mean in each team’s projection chart below:

Red – A very difficult matchup. For lower-level players, a red matchup means they should not be used in fantasy that week. For a second- or third-tier player, drop your expectations for them at least one grade that week (i.e. from WR2 to WR3). For elite players, expect them to perform one level lower than their usual status (i.e. RB1 performs like a RB2).

Yellow – Keep expectations fairly low in this matchup. For lower-level players, a yellow matchup is a borderline start at best. For a second- or third-tier player, they can probably overcome the matchup if things fall right. For the elite players, expect slightly better than average production.

White – Basically, this is a neutral matchup. In some cases, I just don’t feel like I have a good feel yet for the defense. Generally speaking, these matchups are winnable matchups for all levels of players.

Green – It doesn’t get much better than this. For non-elite players, the stage is basically set for said player to exploit the matchup. For the elite player, this matchup should produce special numbers.

For an example as to the amount of possibilities and factors I consider, take a look below at the San Diego Chargers’ projections. Steve Johnson does not have a single “red” on his schedule because: 1) players like the Cleveland Browns’ Joe Haden and Miami Dolphins’ Brent Grimes rarely move into the slot when a player like Johnson slides inside and 2) although I am high on corners like the Minnesota Vikings’ Terence Newman or the Pittsburgh Steelers’ Brandon Boykin to defend him, I doubt either player will shut him down. Furthermore, slot work figures to only be part of what Johnson does, so he’ll probably see Haden or Grimes line up across from him anyway at certain points. That is why he gets a yellow and not a red or a white. In other cases (which I will discuss as we move along with these projections), players like Grimes play on only one side of the ball while virtually every receiver will see time on the left and right side of the formation. In still other cases, the quality of the quarterback (Kansas City is probably the best example out of these eight teams) can take a potential green matchup and turn into a neutral one. As you can tell, a lot of thought goes into the color-coding system.

Other important notes:

- The gray highlight in each team’s schedule reflects a road game and the numbers above them correspond to the weeks of the season. Black boxes represent bye weeks. The age you see by each player will be that player’s age as of September 1, 2015.

- These are my initial projections and therefore subject to change. In a few cases, the changes will be dramatic. In other words, don’t be alarmed if the projections on the Big Boards are different from the ones you see here.

Key to the table below:

PPR Aver - Points per game in full-point PPR leagues where all touchdowns are worth six points.
NPPR Aver - Points per game in non-PPR leagues where all touchdowns are worth six points.
PPR - Total points scored in PPR
Non-PPR - Total points scored in non-PPR.


AFC West

 Denver Broncos
Pos Player Age PPR Avg NPPR Avg PPR Non Totals 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
BAL KC DET MIN OAK CLE bye GB IND KC CHI NE SD OAK PIT CIN
QB Peyton Manning 39 22.8 22.8 91.1 91.1 1165 255 300 325 285
TD 8 2 3 2 1
INT 2 0 0 1 1
Ru Yards 5 0 5 0 0
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0
RB C.J. Anderson 24 21.6 18.6 86.5 74.5 405 85 130 70 120
Ru TD 4 1 1 0 2
Re Yards 100 30 20 35 15
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 12 4 2 4 2
RB Montee Ball 24 6.1 5.4 24.5 21.5 140 30 20 35 55
Ru TD 1 0 0 0 1
Re Yards 15 5 5 0 5
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 3 1 1 0 1
WR Demaryius Thomas 27 21.3 14.3 85 57 390 80 125 85 100
Re TD 3 0 2 0 1
Rec 28 6 8 8 6
WR Emmanuel Sanders 28 12.1 7.4 48.5 29.5 235 45 70 60 60
Re TD 1 0 0 1 0
Rec 19 4 5 4 6
WR Cody Latimer 22 6.3 4 25 16 100 30 10 20 40
Re TD 1 0 1 0 0
Rec 9 2 1 3 3
WR Owen Daniels 32 10.8 7 43 28 160 40 35 60 25
Re TD 2 1 0 1 0
Rec 15 4 3 6 2
TE Virgil Green 27 7.6 4.9 30.5 19.5 135 25 30 40 40
Re TD 1 1 0 0 0
Rec 11 2 2 3 4

Key changes
HC: Replaced John Fox with Gary Kubiak
TE: Allowed Julius Thomas to sign with Jacksonville, added Daniels in free agency.

Matchup analysis: Much has been made (and will continue to be made in the coming months) about the ability of Anderson to parlay last season’s second half into a full season of production in 2015. The offensive line has taken a few hits in the offseason (most notably, a season-ending injury to LT Ryan Clady and the loss of G Orlando Franklin to San Diego) and Ball is one of three capable reserve backs that will do their best to keep the heat on the former undrafted free agent. The good news is that Kubiak and Manning both have a bit of history in accentuating the statistical ceilings of their running backs, although based on the way Anderson ran at the end of last season, it is questionable whether he actually needs much help in that department. The most challenging about the Broncos’ running-game schedule isn’t so much the quality of the defenses it will face, but rather the number of high-powered offenses the defense must contain. That is why DC Wade Phillips was an underrated hire for the offense (you are reading that right), because it will be paramount for Denver to jump out in front of teams like Detroit, Minnesota, Green Bay, Indianapolis and New England so it can ride the ground game as much as it wants to. The second half of the season shapes up very nicely for Anderson as well; it’s hard to ask for a much better fantasy playoff slate that features the worst run defense against opposing backs last season (Oakland) and the fourth-worst (Cincinnati).

The truth of the matter is that if Broncos wanted to go all-in with the passing game this year, Manning could easily lead the league in passing. Denver has bigger fish to fry, however, namely keeping Manning healthy. General Manager and Executive Vice President of Football Operations John Elway and Kubiak have been consistent in suggesting that preserving Manning is of the utmost importance, so expect the Broncos to ride their quarterback only when necessary before the bye. With that said, the Broncos didn’t re-sign Thomas for $14 M per year to have him block or serve as a decoy, so expect Manning to remain a mid-tier QB1 at the very least and Thomas to continue being a top-five fantasy receiver – especially against this schedule. After those two stalwarts, volume may become an issue. I fully expect Daniels and Green to do a reasonably good job of replacing Julius Thomas, in large part because Denver is expected to use more two-tight sets and Kubiak’s offense has made the tight end more of a priority than most. Despite all the yellow on the schedule, I’d suggest that Owens and Green will do more to hurt each other’s fantasy value more than their opponents. The Broncos love Green’s blocking ability, so he will see plenty of snaps. (It might help to think of this arrangement as a poor man’s version of Dwayne Allen and Coby Fleener, with Green playing the Allen role.) Both players should be drafted in most fantasy leagues and considered high-end TE2s. That brings us back to the one player that is most likely to disappoint, especially given his current ADP – Sanders. Something will have gone terribly wrong for the Broncos if Sanders comes anywhere close to 141 targets (or 101 catches) he had a season ago. Lack of volume will be his biggest enemy, although Latimer is almost certain to play a bigger role in the offense this year. Considering he still has Manning throwing him the ball and will move into the slot in three-wide packages, Sanders should still have a relatively safe floor – especially considering the lack of quality secondaries on Denver’s schedule. A 70-80 catch year sounds about right.

 Kansas City Chiefs
Pos Player Age PPR Avg NPPR Avg PPR Non Totals 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
HOU DEN GB CIN CHI MIN PIT DET bye DEN SD BUF OAK SD BAL CLE
QB Alex Smith 31 17.1 17.1 68.4 68.4 1035 260 255 290 230
TD 4 0 1 3 0
INT 3 0 1 2 0
Ru Yards 90 25 15 35 15
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0
RB Jamaal Charles 28 19.9 15.4 79.5 61.5 280 65 50 105 60
Ru TD 2 1 0 0 1
Re Yards 155 25 40 55 35
Re TD 1 0 0 1 0
Rec 18 3 5 6 4
RB Knile Davis 23 8.4 6.9 33.5 27.5 115 30 20 25 40
Ru TD 2 0 1 0 1
Re Yards 40 15 10 0 15
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 6 2 2 0 2
WR Jeremy Maclin 27 11.8 7 47 28 220 55 40 70 55
Re TD 1 0 0 1 0
Rec 19 5 3 6 5
WR Albert Wilson 23 7 4 28 16 160 30 55 30 45
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 12 3 4 2 3
WR Jason Avant 32 3.3 1.5 13 6 60 20 0 15 25
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 7 2 0 2 3
WR Chris Conley 22 2.4 1.4 9.5 5.5 55 15 10 30 0
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 4 1 1 2 0
WR De'Anthony Thomas 22 3.6 1.9 14.5 7.5 75 30 20 25 0
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 7 3 2 2 0
TE Travis Kelce 25 14.5 9.8 58 39 270 70 80 65 55
Re TD 2 0 1 1 0
Rec 19 5 6 4 4

Key changes
WR: Released Dwayne Bowe, added Maclin in free agency and drafted Conley
TE: Released Anthony Fasano

Matchup analysis: Charles will remain the heart and soul of the Chiefs’ offense, although I am not confident about his ability to carry owners’ to fantasy titles in the same way he has in years past. Davis remains one of the league’s best backup running backs and OC Doug Pederson spoke in early August about the need to give Charles more rest this season. Just as importantly, the indefinite loss of NT Dontari Poe makes a bad run defense even worse, which in turn could lead fewer plays for the offense and more deficits for the Chiefs to overcome. Granted, Charles is an all-purpose back, but fewer opportunities could cause him to be more hit-or-miss in the touchdown department than we’ve been accustomed to in recent years. I’m not getting a warm and fuzzy feeling about the second-half schedule either as just about either team should have a prolific offense or vastly-improved (or already-good) run defense. As much as I try to predict what I actually think will happen with each projection, I get the sense I’m hitting Charles’ ceiling – especially as it relates to his reception totals – and Davis’ floor. To be clear, I’m not suggesting Charles will be a bust by any stretch of the imagination; I’m just not very confident he’ll be worth a top-three pick in the draft. Quite frankly, I’d rather have C.J. Anderson at the moment (although it would be a close call for me).

How it is possible for Denver’s passing-game schedule to look so easy and for Kansas City’s to appear so difficult? Whereas most of the quarterbacks in the NFL have the ability to stretch the field 40-plus yards, Smith doesn’t. Some of it is because Smith is such a conservative thrower (not necessarily always a bad thing) and some of it is based on the fact he lacks the arm strength most passers have nowadays. The Chiefs have stated they want Smith to be more aggressive downfield and he’ll have more tools to do so this year than he did in his first two years with the team, but I doubt it will make much of a difference. As has become the norm, Smith will probably burn fantasy owners about as much as he helps them. Considering how much yellow appears on his schedule, I’d just as soon another owner keeps him around as a QB2 on their roster. Kelce is the closest thing fantasy football has to a challenger to the tight-end throne that been occupied by Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham. As such, I’m not going to lose too much sleep over matchups with him. His biggest obstacle (Fasano) has been removed from the equation, leaving only his ball-security issues and Smith’s lack of desire to go downfield as the two factors keeping him from realizing his statistical ceiling. Kansas City knew it had to pony up to get Maclin, who I tend to believe will bring some legitimacy to the team’s wide receiver position for the first time since Bowe was in his prime. With that said, I don’t think he has any chance to produce like most owners – real or fantasy – would expect out of a wideout making $11 M per year. Just because he is an upgrade over Bowe, Smith has yet to really make any of his receivers into a true fantasy star in his career. Furthermore, it should be noted the Chiefs have ranked last in the league in fantasy scoring at the receiver position in three straight seasons, including both years with Smith as the quarterback and the Andy Reid/Pederson brain trust calling the shots. Touchdowns will be hard to come by and it could be argued that Kansas City will make feeding Charles, Davis and Kelce in the red zone more of a priority than Maclin.

 Oakland Raiders
Pos Player Age PPR Avg NPPR Avg PPR Non Totals 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
CIN BAL CLE CHI DEN bye SD NYJ PIT MIN DET TEN KC DEN GB SD
QB Derek Carr 24 18.3 18.3 73 73 975 280 215 190 290
TD 6 1 1 1 3
INT 2 1 0 1 0
Ru Yards 20 5 10 0 5
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0
RB Latavius Murray 25 13.6 12.1 54.5 48.5 325 65 75 105 80
Ru TD 2 0 1 1 0
Re Yards 40 20 5 0 15
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 6 3 1 0 2
RB Roy Helu 26 8.3 5.8 33 23 95 25 15 15 40
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0
Re Yards 75 30 20 10 15
Re TD 1 0 0 1 0
Rec 10 3 3 1 3
RB Marcel Reece 30 2.9 1.6 11.5 6.5 15 0 10 0 5
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0
Re Yards 50 20 0 10 20
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 5 2 0 1 2
WR Amari Cooper 21 15.5 10 62 40 280 70 40 80 90
Re TD 2 0 1 0 1
Rec 22 6 3 6 7
WR Michael Crabtree 27 12 7.8 48 31 190 55 45 30 60
Re TD 2 1 0 0 1
Rec 17 5 4 3 5
WR Rod Streater 27 4.3 2.3 17 9 90 25 30 10 25
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 8 2 3 1 2
TE Clive Walford 23 8 5.3 32 21 150 40 20 35 55
Re TD 1 0 0 0 1
Rec 11 3 2 2 4
TE Mychal Rivera 24 4.5 2.3 18 9 90 20 45 15 10
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 9 2 4 2 1

Key changes
HC: Replaced Dennis Allen/Tony Sparano with Jack Del Rio
OC: Replaced Greg Olsen with Bill Musgrave
RB: Allowed Darren McFadden to sign with Dallas, saw Maurice Jones-Drew retire, added Helu and Trent Richardson in free agency
WR: Drafted Cooper and added Michael Crabtree in free agency
TE: Drafted Walford

Matchup analysis: It took WAY too long for the previous staff to identify Murray as a player that needed to be on the field more often, although injuries did play a role in that. While the importance of building trust as a pass-blocker and as a receiver can’t be overstated (which is something the previous regime felt Murray lacked consistently), going three-and-out several times a game is no way to run an offense either (which is what happened a lot with McFadden and Jones-Drew). With that said, I highly doubt I’ll be landing Murray in any of my upcoming drafts; the Central Florida product hasn’t been overly durable in his pro career and the Raiders added one of the better passing-game backs in the league in Helu, who is a pretty decent talent in his own right. Oakland figures to be better this year, but the odds the Raiders will be trailing in the fourth quarter in at least half of games is still relatively pretty high. As a result, it would not surprise me at all if Helu ends up as the better fantasy player – especially in PPR. Present and potential owners who don’t want to believe that to be a possibility really need Oakland’s defense to take a huge step forward, hope that Murray can take advantage of the reasonably-soft pre-bye slate, pray that he doesn’t blow any pass protections in the preseason and, most importantly, stay healthy. If all of those things happen, then Murray could do what Alfred Morris did to Helu back in Washington – keep him around 80 touches. Another potential nail in Murray’s tire is the likelihood that he’ll be reduced to a spectator in the fantasy playoffs. Denver, Green Bay and San Diego should all field some of the best offenses in the league in 2015. If Murray hasn’t established himself as the team’s passing-down back by that point, Helu will likely get a lot of action in those contests. If it wasn’t clear already, there is a sizeable gap between Murray’s fantasy ceiling and floor. If he splits passing-down duties with Helu and hogs the majority of early-down touches, he has top-10 fantasy upside. If Helu dominates passing-game touches and earns at least 25 percent of the carries, then Murray has little chance to meet his current fourth-round ADP and Helu could become one of the best late-round values in fantasy.

For the first time since the days of Kerry Collins and Randy Moss, there is reason for some hope with the Raiders’ passing game this year. Carr did the most he could last year despite having very little to work with and Cooper is about as polished of a receiver as the college game can produce nowadays. Unfortunately, Carr will probably remain as a bye-week fill-in at best in fantasy with only five favorable matchups this season (four neutrals and one green). I will have no problem drafting Cooper as a WR2 in my leagues, which should serve as an endorsement to his skills since I handed him four red matchups. I do like the fact that after Week 11, he only faces only one elite secondary. I’m pretty sure I’m scraping the ceiling of Crabtree’s fantasy ceiling with his first-quarter projection, although the Raiders seem to be pleased with the one-year investment they made in him thus far. He is a potential WR4 available at the end of drafts, making him the type of value owners should target with one of their final picks. I don’t expect him to ever regain his pre-injury (Achilles) form, but he makes sense as a possession-receiver type in an offense that should get a fair amount of work in garbage time. I fully expect Walford to start over Rivera in short order. I’m obviously not crazy about rookie tight ends or the difficulty of his schedule, which is why the 44-catch pace I have him on is probably his ceiling. Regardless, his ability to get downfield keeps him on the low-end fantasy TE2 radar.

 San Diego Chargers
Pos Player Age PPR Avg NPPR Avg PPR Non Totals 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
DET CIN MIN CLE PIT GB OAK BAL CHI bye KC JAC DEN KC MIA OAK
QB Philip Rivers 33 19.8 19.8 79.2 79.2 1030 300 230 280 220
TD 7 3 1 1 2
INT 3 0 1 2 0
Ru Yards 20 10 5 5 0
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0
RB Melvin Gordon 22 15 14 60 56 350 70 90 55 135
Ru TD 3 0 1 0 2
Re Yards 30 10 0 15 5
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 4 1 0 2 1
RB Danny Woodhead 30 13.4 8.9 53.5 35.5 85 25 15 30 15
Ru TD 1 0 1 0 0
Re Yards 150 45 25 60 20
Re TD 1 1 0 0 0
Rec 18 6 3 7 2
RB Branden Oliver 24 2.1 1.6 8.5 6.5 50 10 15 5 20
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0
Re Yards 15 0 10 0 5
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 2 0 1 0 1
WR Keenan Allen 23 14.5 9.5 58 38 260 75 65 80 40
Re TD 2 1 0 1 0
Rec 20 6 5 6 3
WR Steve Johnson 29 13.6 9.4 54.5 37.5 195 70 40 25 60
Re TD 3 1 0 0 2
Rec 17 6 4 2 5
WR Malcom Floyd 33 5.5 3.5 22 14 140 40 35 50 15
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 8 2 3 2 1
TE Antonio Gates 35 0 0 0 0 0 SUS SUS SUS SUS
Re TD 0 SUS SUS SUS SUS
Rec 0 SUS SUS SUS SUS
TE Ladarius Green 25 9.4 5.9 37.5 23.5 175 40 55 30 50
Re TD 1 0 1 0 0
Rec 14 3 4 2 5

Key changes
RB: Allowed Ryan Mathews to sign with Philadelphia, drafted Gordon
WR: Allowed Eddie Royal to sign with Chicago, added Johnson in free agency

Matchup analysis: Mathews was only able to withstand the punishment that an NFL back must take in one of his four seasons with San Diego; the Chargers hope that Gordon has enough speed and elusiveness to avoid a similar fate. GM Tom Telesco prematurely excited the fantasy masses by calling the rookie “the best pass-protecting back in the draft” moments after selecting him in late April, but the first report to come out about him during training camp stated he was struggling in that area. Although that limits his fantasy appeal considerably, Gordon profiles as a slightly less-explosive and bigger version of Jamaal Charles, so he’s going to be OK. And it is just as well since the club loves using Woodhead on passing downs, which means San Diego might be able to provide two capable fantasy RB2s in PPR leagues. As you can tell from Gordon’s schedule, he has a realistic shot to be the Rookie of the Year if he simply stays healthy and earns trust in the passing game as the season moves along. The pre-bye slate is rather tame and it helps that Weeks 14-16 feature two run defenses that gave up the third-most (Kansas City) and seventh-most rushing yards (Oakland) to opposing backs last season. The green highlights for Woodhead are primarily against opponents that yielded a lot of receptions to opposing backs in 2014, but the reality of the situation is that the former Patriot is probably destined for a 60-plus catch season again if he is able to play all 16 contests. In short, I’m not sure matchups are going to apply to him all that much.

There’s no question the season-opening four-game suspension of Gates hurts this team, but I’d argue San Diego is better equipped to handle it this season than at any other point in his career. Green is one of the best – if not the best – backup tight end in the league and should be able to replace Gates’ passing-game numbers during the suspension IF given the chance to do so. “If” is the operative word, however, since Rivers has two strong short and intermediate targets at receiver now with Allen and Johnson. The schedule is unlikely likely to hold either player back and Johnson figures to benefit the most from the Chargers’ current setup since he will play the same favorable red-zone role Royal did over the past two seasons. If the starting jobs in San Diego are based on merit, Johnson should also push Floyd into a part-time downfield threat. Don’t be surprised if Johnson’s production rivals Allen’s in 2015. Rivers might get off to a shaky start to the season, although he has earned quite a reputation for overcoming the matchup. After Week 3, I’d only be threatened by three matchups: Baltimore (Week 8), Denver (Week 13) and Miami (Week 15). Assuming his back is no longer an issue, he should be a more-than-serviceable fantasy QB1. Green didn’t get a particularly good draw from the schedule during Gates’ absence, but I’d be more scared of the Chargers’ perplexing inability to find regular playing time for him before now than his opponents. It will be interesting to see what San Diego does in the preseason with Gates and Green and just how much attention Rivers will pay to the latter; that could go a long way into deciding whether Green is low-end TE1 material over the first four weeks of the season.


NFC West

 Arizona Cardinals
Pos Player Age PPR Avg NPPR Avg PPR Non Totals 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
NO CHI SF STL DET PIT BAL CLE bye SEA CIN SF STL MIN PHI GB
QB Carson Palmer 35 20.6 20.6 82.4 82.4 1010 230 235 295 250
TD 7 2 2 1 2
INT 1 0 0 0 1
Ru Yards 20 10 0 0 10
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0
RB Andre Ellington 26 14.3 11.3 57 45 310 70 85 110 45
Ru TD 1 0 0 1 0
Re Yards 80 30 20 10 20
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 12 4 3 1 4
RB David Johnson 23 8.1 6.1 32.5 24.5 115 20 30 40 25
Ru TD 1 0 0 1 0
Re Yards 70 15 20 25 10
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 8 2 2 3 1
WR Larry Fitzgerald 32 12.8 8.5 51 34 220 40 65 45 70
Re TD 2 0 1 0 1
Rec 17 4 4 3 6
WR Michael Floyd 25 11.5 7.8 34.5 23.5 175 INJ 40 105 30
Re TD 1 INJ 0 1 0
Rec 11 INJ 3 6 2
WR John Brown 25 14.5 10.5 58 42 300 80 45 65 110
Re TD 2 1 0 0 1
Rec 16 5 3 3 5
WR Jaron Brown 25 5.9 3.9 23.5 15.5 95 50 10 25 10
Re TD 1 1 0 0 0
Rec 8 4 1 2 1
TE Jermaine Gresham 27 5 3.3 20 13 70 15 35 20 0
Re TD 1 0 1 0 0
Rec 7 2 3 2 0

Key changes
RB: Drafted Johnson
TE: Added Gresham in free agency

Matchup analysis: In an age in which most teams have chosen to employ committees and use backs with different skill sets and/or sizes to fill them, the Cardinals’ top three runners at the moment (Ellington, Johnson and Kerwynn Williams) are essentially the same kind of back. It is an interesting twist and one HC Bruce Arians says he is using so he doesn’t have to adjust his game plan due to injury or fatigue. He apparently has no plans to ease up much on Ellington, who fought through several injuries before seeing last season end due to a sports hernia. In other words, savvy owners looking forward to the fantasy playoffs may want to invest a later-round pick in Johnson since he would probably become a 20-touch-per-week player in the likely event Ellington gets hurt or wears out late again. As far as the matchups go, a healthy Ellington should be able to produce at a high-end fantasy RB2 level if he maintains the kind of workload Arians has suggested he will. Arizona has done enough on the offensive line since Arians’ arrival that his offense should be able to pound away at some of its weaker opponents. The third-year coach has typically also made good use of his running backs in the passing game, so Ellington (or Johnson) has a reasonably high fantasy floor. The downside to both backs is their inability to run inside and convert in short-yardage situations, which means another player like Stepfan Taylor or FB Robert Hughes may end up being the designated goal-line back if Arizona doesn’t add a thumper during the preseason. Obviously, this severely curbs the fantasy upside of both Ellington and Johnson.

A year ago, an injury to Floyd would have been thought to be devastating news to the Cardinals’ passing game. In 2015, it seems as though it is just another reason for owners to start investing more heavily into the fantasy stock of Brown. Floyd is expected to be back around the start of the regular season after he dislocated three fingers early in camp. In Arians’ offense, it is unlikely to make much of a difference since Arizona clearly established that it wants Palmer throwing the ball to the open man as opposed to force-feeding one particular receiver. I’m also reasonably certain that despite Floyd’s obvious size and experience advantage, I’d rather own Brown in redraft leagues at the moment. Brown has seemingly been the apple of Palmer and Arians’ eye from the moment he arrived in Arizona and proved as a rookie that he can beat just about any defender deep. Fitzgerald gets a bit more of a break from the schedule than his fellow receivers, but the spread-it-around philosophy that was clearly established last year makes predicting the weekly “winner” of the receiver corps a fruitless exercise for now. As 2014 proved, Palmer MUST stay healthy for the Cardinals to have any chance on offense. He took advantage of a reasonably soft slate last year to leave a positive impression on his owners prior to his ACL injury, but should face more of a challenge this time around. Given the quality of his receivers, most of Palmer’s green matchups should be very advantageous matchups and most of his yellows are borderline neutral. I wouldn’t want to trust him as my weekly starter, but I’d feel comfortable plugging him into my lineup in roughly 10 of the 15 games on his fantasy schedule. Arians doesn’t seem to have much use for tight ends in the passing game, so don’t expect Gresham to push 60 receptions like he did on a regular basis in Cincinnati. If Arians’ history with tight ends doesn’t scare owners off, then the schedule probably should.

 St. Louis Rams
Pos Player Age PPR Avg NPPR Avg PPR Non Totals 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
SEA WAS PIT ARI GB bye CLE SF MIN CHI BAL CIN ARI DET TB SEA
QB Nick Foles 26 16.8 16.8 67 67 1025 210 280 290 245
TD 5 1 2 1 1
INT 3 1 0 0 2
Ru Yards 20 10 5 0 5
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0
RB Todd Gurley 21 7.8 6.3 31 25 145 20 25 60 40
Ru TD 1 0 0 1 0
Re Yards 45 5 10 15 15
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 6 1 1 2 2
RB Tre Mason 22 10.5 9.8 42 39 305 50 85 105 65
Ru TD 1 0 0 1 0
Re Yards 25 10 0 10 5
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 3 1 0 1 1
WR Tavon Austin 24 9.4 6.6 37.5 26.5 50 5 15 0 30
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0
Re Yards 155 30 55 45 25
Re TD 1 0 1 0 0
Rec 11 2 3 4 2
WR Kenny Britt 26 10.3 6.8 41 27 210 35 55 85 35
Re TD 1 0 0 1 0
Rec 14 3 3 5 3
WR Brian Quick 26 12 7.8 48 31 250 45 75 55 75
Re TD 1 0 1 0 0
Rec 17 3 6 3 5
WR Stedman Bailey 24 3.5 1.8 14 7 70 25 10 20 15
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 7 2 1 2 2
TE Jared Cook 28 10 6.3 40 25 190 30 65 40 55
Re TD 1 0 0 0 1
Rec 15 3 4 3 5
TE Lance Kendricks 27 3.4 2.4 13.5 9.5 35 15 0 10 10
Re TD 1 1 0 0 0
Rec 4 2 0 1 1

Key changes
OC: Replaced Bryan Schottenheimer with Frank Cignetti
QB: Traded Sam Bradford to Philadelphia for Foles
RB: Drafted Gurley

Matchup analysis: The Rams have given every indication they plan on taking it slowly with Gurley and appear unlikely to use him at all in the preseason. Thus, it makes perfect sense for the team to use the first five pre-bye contests as his preseason, likely in hopes they can turn the backfield over to him starting in Week 7. (I’d be stunned if he sees more than 10 carries and/or 12 total touches over that time, barring an injury to Mason – if even then.) It’s not as if Mason is some talentless hack, so St. Louis can feel comfortable in taking the conservative approach with the No. 10 overall pick. The Rams changed their play-caller and overhauled their offensive line in the offseason, both of which combined with a challenging first-quarter schedule figures to make a fast start for either Mason or Gurley difficult. It is fair to say that if I’m correct in assuming the timeline for Gurley AND the offensive line begins to gel following the bye, the rookie could have an incredible second half of the season. While I only gave both backs two greens, a steady diet of 18-plus carries for a special talent like Gurley against a steady string of average run defenses is a recipe for fantasy stardom. It’s too bad Seattle is the Week 16 opponent, but few owners are going to be drafting Gurley as their No. 1 back anyway. I’m willing to take my chances the Georgia standout can make at least one big play on 15-18 touches against the Seahawks so I can fill my RB2 spot in Week 16 in order to get a potential RB1 return from him in Weeks 7-15.

Considering there was some early thought that Quick’s season-ending shoulder injury last year was career-threatening, it’s a good sign the Rams fully expect him to play in the preseason and that he is nearing 100 percent. Quick began to emerge as something more than a size-speed specimen last year and it is expected he will be able to pick up where he left off with the quarterback situation somewhat stabilized. Seattle represents the only red on Quick or Britt’s matchup line and even that is somewhat questionable given the current injury status of “The Legion of Boom” and the inconsistency with which Seahawks’ free-agent signing CB Cary Williams has displayed throughout his career. However, there are plenty of yellow matchups and that – along with the lack of volume in the passing game – likely will be enough to turn every St. Louis receiver into nothing more than a matchup-based WR3 at best for fantasy purposes. I’ll be very interested to see how Austin looks in the preseason. Austin should have never been drafted at No. 8 overall, but I’m willing to hold out hope for at least one more year that a player that had the versatility of Randall Cobb and speed of T.Y. Hilton coming out of the 2013 draft is a better player than he is generally being given for. Let’s face it: Schottenheimer didn’t many great decisions in his two-year stay in St. Louis and I tend to believe the pigeon-holing of Austin as a gadget player was one of those poor decisions. I stated in his draft profile two years ago that it may take a while for him to reach his upside and it didn’t help his cause that he came out of a pure spread offense at West Virginia. Mind you, I’m not suggesting he’s going to touch the production of Cobb or Hilton in this offense, but it seems to me a player with his speed and elusiveness could be a game-breaker from time to time if the play-caller is willing to get creative with how he uses him. As such, I’d be surprised if Austin isn’t at least relevant at some point in fantasy leagues this season. The run-heavy nature of this offense pretty much removes just about any chance Foles had of being anything more than a low-end QB2. The final six games of the fantasy season figure to be a brutal stretch for him as well, so it is highly unlikely he will be of any use during the fantasy playoffs. Cook appears to have it easy at the beginning and end of his season, but his own inconsistency makes trusting him even in the best matchups hard to do. He’s enjoyed 50-catch seasons in each of his two years in St. Louis; I think that might be a lofty goal for him in 2015.

 San Francisco 49ers
Pos Player Age PPR Avg NPPR Avg PPR Non Totals 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
MIN PIT ARI GB NYG BAL SEA STL ATL bye SEA ARI CHI CLE CIN DET
QB Colin Kaepernick 27 21.3 21.3 85.1 85.1 1090 230 310 255 295
TD 6 1 2 1 2
INT 4 1 0 1 2
Ru Yards 135 30 50 35 20
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0
RB Carlos Hyde 23 9.3 8 37 32 225 40 80 55 50
Ru TD 1 0 1 0 0
Re Yards 35 10 5 10 10
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 5 1 1 2 1
RB Reggie Bush 30 12 7.3 48 29 70 35 10 15 10
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0
Re Yards 160 35 40 25 60
Re TD 1 0 0 0 1
Rec 19 5 4 4 6
WR Anquan Boldin 34 15.8 10 63 40 280 65 85 60 70
Re TD 2 1 1 0 0
Rec 23 5 7 6 5
WR Torrey Smith 26 10.6 7.4 42.5 29.5 235 45 70 40 80
Re TD 1 0 0 0 1
Rec 13 3 4 2 4
WR Bruce Ellington 24 2.6 1.4 10.5 5.5 55 10 20 25 0
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 5 1 2 2 0
TE Vernon Davis 31 14 9.8 56 39 270 60 70 85 55
Re TD 2 0 1 1 0
Rec 17 3 4 6 4

Key changes
HC: Replaced Jim Harbaugh with Jim Tomsula
OC: Replaced Greg Roman with Geep Chryst
RB: Allowed Frank Gore to sign with Indianapolis, added Bush in free agency and drafted Mike Davis
WR: Allowed Michael Crabtree to sign with Oakland, added Smith in free agency

Matchup analysis: Without a doubt, I am projecting Hyde’s floor here because I don’t think he’ll be the Niners’ three-down back, especially considering how good Bush is in the passing game. If Hyde does somehow become the featured runner in San Francisco, his PPR upside is huge. Why? There are no shortage of quality offenses over the first five weeks of the Niners’ schedule and San Francisco’s defense isn’t anywhere close to where it used to be. This could lead to a lot of shootouts or garbage time, both of which should lead to high-target totals for the backs. In other words, Hyde could be a two-down back on a potential 5-6 win team that suffered key run-blocking losses on the offensive line or a three-down back for an offense that will likely be throwing to its backs a lot in the second half of games. As a result, there is a HUGE gap between his ceiling and floor; Chryst has stated the running back rotation (or lack thereof) will get sorted out during camp. Realistically, between the number of solid run defenses and high-powered offenses San Francisco will face over the first 10 games, owners really shouldn’t expect much fantasy consistency from a two-down Hyde until around Week 12. The Niners’ final four games during the fantasy season all feature teams that are run-heavy or moving in that direction. If Hyde is unable to become the featured back in San Francisco and the Niners struggle as much as many think they will, then owners need to strongly consider Bush. It seems almost unthinkable that the Niners would throw to their backs so often after underutilizing Gore for four years in that area, but how many owners have faith in the team’s ability to hang with powerful offenses like the Vikings, Steelers, Packers and Giants? Exactly. Bush’s injury history and the uncertainty of his role heading into the season make him a RB4/RB5 candidate, albeit with RB3 upside in PPR leagues.

For better or worse, Tomsula and Chryst appear committed to lean heavily on Kaepernick this season – as a runner and as a passer. I could easily envision 800-plus rushing yards for the 27-year-old and plenty of huge fantasy weeks if he can withstand the added punishment that will come as a result behind San Francisco’s new and untested front five. He is yet another player that owners probably can ignore the matchup with in most cases since much of his impact in fantasy this season figures to come against soft zone coverage in garbage time. Boldin is underrated year after year, yet still remains a threat for another 80-catch season as Kaepernick’s most trusted target. The ex-Cardinal and Raven is simply too physical for most slot corners and still wins enough battles on the outside to be a solid fantasy WR3 on a team that will throw the ball more often than at any other point during his 49ers’ career. San Francisco wants to stretch the field more often in 2015 and snagged Smith from Baltimore in order to do just that. It’s a good thought in theory, but as a receiver who makes his living on vertical routes, the Niners either need Kaepernick to become a more accurate deep thrower, the run to work well enough so safeties will bite hard on play-action or both. It seems unlikely the run will be good enough to consistently take pressure of the passing game this year, so a disappointing year is most likely in store for Smith. However, I do expect a bounce-back season for Vernon Davis, who has the vocal Tony Sparano as his new position coach and the schedule to make some noise. “VD” remains one of the best athletes at his position in the game today and still has more than enough size and speed to win in the red zone. A top-10 finish at his position should not be ruled out.

 Seattle Seahawks
Pos Player Age PPR Avg NPPR Avg PPR Non Totals 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
STL GB CHI DET CIN CAR SF DAL bye ARI SF PIT MIN BAL CLE STL
QB Russell Wilson 26 28.3 28.3 113.2 113.2 980 240 265 175 300
TD 9 2 2 2 3
INT 2 1 1 0 0
Ru Yards 180 20 55 70 35
Ru TD 1 0 0 1 0
RB Marshawn Lynch 29 19.5 17.8 78 71 405 65 125 140 75
Ru TD 3 0 1 2 0
Re Yards 65 20 10 0 35
Re TD 1 0 0 0 1
Rec 7 3 1 0 3
RB Robert Turbin 25 4.4 2.4 17.5 9.5 50 10 10 25 5
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0
Re Yards 45 15 15 10 5
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 8 2 3 1 2
WR Doug Baldwin 26 10.3 6.5 41 26 200 50 70 25 55
Re TD 1 0 1 0 0
Rec 15 3 6 2 4
WR Jermaine Kearse 25 8.6 5.9 34.5 23.5 175 45 70 20 40
Re TD 1 0 1 0 0
Rec 11 3 4 1 3
WR Tyler Lockett 22 5.9 3.9 23.5 15.5 95 25 25 45 0
Re TD 1 0 0 1 0
Rec 8 2 2 4 0
WR Chris Matthews 25 7 5.5 28 22 100 35 10 0 55
Re TD 2 1 0 0 1
Rec 6 2 1 0 3
TE Jimmy Graham 28 15.1 10.9 60.5 43.5 255 45 65 60 85
Re TD 3 1 0 1 1
Rec 17 3 5 4 5
TE Luke Willson 25 2.1 1.1 8.5 4.5 45 5 0 15 25
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 4 1 0 2 1

Key changes
RB: Added undrafted free agent Thomas Rawls
WR: Drafted Lockett
TE: Acquired Graham via trade from New Orleans in exchange for C Max Unger

Matchup analysis: The ink may have only just dried on Wilson’s huge extension a few days ago, but the Seahawks (and most owners) know the Seahawks’ offensive heart and soul is still Lynch. It is rare in this day and age for a back that makes his living as a bruiser to have the staying power and to be as matchup-proof as the five-time Pro Bowler. Sure, Lynch could appease more owners and top the 40-catch mark for the first time since 2008, but that is nitpicking a player that has rushed for at least 1,200 yards and 11 touchdowns four times in as many years in Seattle. Assuming this isn’t the season he starts feeling the effect of 2,220 NFL carries (including playoffs), Lynch should be a pretty good bet to make it five straight years of elite production. Arizona and San Francisco both took substantial hits to their respective run defenses in the offseason, meaning the NFC West may not quite be the bear it has been in recent years. It is a bit of a bummer that Lynch will likely get stuck playing two of the best run defenses he will see all season in the fantasy playoffs, although OC Darrell Bevell typically does a good job of making sure his stud back gets a few touches in the passing game on the rare occasion Seattle can’t get anything going on the ground. Turbin figures to keep his job as the part-time third-down back, although he’ll probably get pushed by Rawls to be Lynch’s handcuff. The Central Michigan product has emerged as a player the coaching staff loves; he may be able to steal early-down duties in the event of a Lynch injury with his hard-charging and punishing running style.

As long as Pete Carroll runs the show in Seattle, the running game will almost certainly carry its weight. However, it is hard to look at the moves above and not see the Seahawks beginning the transition from a Lynch-led offense to one that will be ready to cater even more to Wilson’s talents no later than 2017. Graham is easily the splashiest offseason acquisition Seattle has made in as long as I can remember and should help the Seahawks become one of the better offensive teams in the league in short order. Graham will face his share of challenges as a result of playing for Seattle (less volume) and from the schedule (St. Louis has been one of the stingiest defenses versus opposing tight ends over the last two years), but I’m not sure I’d let likely slow games in Weeks 1 and 16 steer me away from a tight end who should catch around 70 balls and score 10-plus times. Wilson’s running ability almost makes him matchup-proof and he’s likely to explode for his fantasy owners, especially the few times Lynch is unable to get on track. I doubt Wilson will come anywhere close to 4,000 passing yards, but that day is coming with the talent Seattle is starting to assemble on the offensive side of the ball. Baldwin should enjoy at least one more year as the Seahawks’ lead wideout and benefit (in real life) from the attention Graham will attract. One of the reasons for that is that he should hold onto slot duties, although Lockett will be nipping at his heels. However, Graham’s presence figures to reduce whatever chance Baldwin had of repeating his 66-825-3 line from 2014. Matthews had the game of a lifetime in Super Bowl XLIX last season and it is reasonable to wonder why Seattle won’t use a 6-5 receiver capable of plucking the ball out of mid-air on goal-line fades and fade-stops more often. Again, there isn’t going to be enough volume to consistently support more than Graham and one receiver on a weekly basis, so owners should be able to ignore most of the Seahawks’ receivers after Baldwin in normal-sized leagues, at least until we see if Seattle is ready to pass more often. Baldwin is no fantasy prize himself either; he may be useful in fantasy for 3-4 games, but predicting those outbursts will be difficult to do.


Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and been featured in USA Today’s Fantasy Football Preview magazine since 2010. He hosted USA Today’s hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday in 2012-13 and appears as a guest analyst on a number of national sports radio shows, including Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive”. Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.