About this time each year, I like to bring up a social psychology paradigm called “effort justification” that asserts people have a tendency to attribute a greater value (greater than the objective value) to an outcome they had to put effort into acquiring or achieving. I think it is worth revisiting at least once a year because we often spend most of the spring and early summer singing the praises of a few select players while talking down others that have no chance to succeed, or so we think. At some point, we have invested enough energy (or emotional cache, as I like to call it) into building our cases for one player’s breakout or decline that, whether we recognize it or not, we have passed the point of no return. In other words, the first people to take a stand for or against a player are often among the last to change their opinion of him.

There’s a big difference between having a conviction for a certain player and feeling obligated to support another one because he was “your guy” last year or earlier this spring. It is important to understand the difference and be able to draft accordingly. It is yet another reason I wanted to make the changes to the PMA that I detailed last week. While projecting, grading and ranking remains a subjective endeavor, setting up a Big Board that relies heavily on time-tested attributes such as talent, job security and durability and less on projections should easily spell out for all my readers just how much conviction I have for every player on the Big Board.

Below you will see my initial first-quarter projections for each of the eight total teams in the AFC and NFC North. I have color-coded the matchups for the full season, however, because I still think it is essential for owners to know what they are signing up for in the second half of the season (and especially the fantasy playoffs) when they select a certain player. The stat projections and schedule analysis will still factor into the overall ranking of a player on my Big Boards, but will be one of about six or seven position-specific attributes that will be weighted, graded and scored. Those attributes, their explanations and the overall grades will make their first appearance on the Big Boards in mid-August.

Here’s a quick refresher of what each of the colors mean in each team’s projection chart below:

Red – A very difficult matchup. For lower-level players, a red matchup means they should not be used in fantasy that week. For a second- or third-tier player, drop your expectations for them at lNorth one grade that week (i.e. from WR2 to WR3). For elite players, expect them to perform one level lower than their usual status (i.e. RB1 performs like a RB2).

Yellow – Keep expectations fairly low in this matchup. For lower-level players, a yellow matchup is a borderline start at best. For a second- or third-tier player, they can probably overcome the matchup if things fall right. For the elite players, expect slightly better than average production.

White – Basically, this is a neutral matchup. In some cases, I just don’t feel like I have a good feel yet for the defense. Generally speaking, these matchups are winnable matchups for all levels of players.

Green – It doesn’t get much better than this. For non-elite players, the stage is basically set for said player to exploit the matchup. For the elite player, this matchup should produce special numbers.

For an example as to the amount of possibilities and factors I consider, take a look below at the Green Bay Packers’ projections. Randall Cobb does not have a single “red” on his schedule because: 1) players like the Seattle Seahawks’ Richard Sherman and Arizona Cardinals’ Patrick Peterson rarely move into the slot when a player like Cobb slides inside and 2) although I think someone like nickel CB/S Tyrann Mathieu of the Cardinals can defend him, I highly doubt Mathieu can or will shut him down. Furthermore, slot work figures to only be part of what Cobb does, so he’ll probably see Sherman and Peterson line up across from him anyway at certain points. That is why he gets a yellow and not a red or a white. In other cases (which I will discuss as we move along with these projections), players like Sherman play on only one side of the ball while virtually every receiver will see time on the left and right side of the formation. In still other cases, the quality of the quarterback (Cleveland, for example) can take a potential green matchup and turn into a neutral one. As you can tell, a lot of thought goes into the color-coding system.

Other important notes:

- The gray highlight in each team’s schedule reflects a road game and the numbers above them correspond to the weeks of the season. Black boxes represent bye weeks. The age you see by each player will be that player’s age as of September 1, 2015.

- These are my initial projections and therefore subject to change. In a few cases, the changes will be dramatic. In other words, don’t be alarmed if the projections on the Big Boards are different from the ones you see here.

Key to the table below:

PPR Aver - Points per game in full-point PPR leagues where all touchdowns are worth six points.
NPPR Aver - Points per game in non-PPR leagues where all touchdowns are worth six points.
PPR - Total points scored in PPR
Non-PPR - Total points scored in non-PPR.

AFC North

Matchup analysis: One of the worst things an incoming play-caller can do is scrap part or all of an offense that worked well for his predecessor, so give Trestman some credit for keeping Kubiak’s zone-run scheme in place. Just as it was for Matt Forte over the last two years in Chicago, run-game volume may be an issue for Forsett, but Trestman loves to get (and keep) his backs involved as receivers. It is that balance – along with very little chance that Baltimore will use a committee at his position – that should allow Forsett to enjoy another career season, at least from a total-yardage perspective. The return of his entire offensive line and relatively light schedule should help him as well since I count only three yellow matchups (and no reds) through his first 10 games. In a lot of ways (projected rookie starters at receiver and tight end combined with an aging receiver), this year is setting up as a bit of a perfect storm for Forsett. Against teams like St. Louis and Seattle in which running the ball may be difficult, it is not to imagine that he is Flacco’s first look against a fierce pass rush. Against the bulk of Baltimore’s schedule, however, the front five should win the battle in the trenches on a regular basis. Allen was drafted because he can catch and block well more than he was to split carries with Forsett, so it would be an upset if he sees more than 20 percent of the backfield’s total touches. Taliaferro may or may not be the goal-line back, so it would seem Forsett should be able to count on at least 70 percent of the action – barring injury, of course – and makes for a very safe and high-upside fantasy RB2.

Two rookies (Williams at tight end, Perriman at one receiver) to go along with a 36-year-old wideout (Smith) and a longtime third-down back coming off his breakout year during his age-29 season is a unique mix for any play-caller. It seems reasonable to say with that passing-game mix and a better defense than he ever had in Chicago, Trestman won’t be inclined to be so pass-heavy in Baltimore. The schedule for Smith and Perriman lines up much as it does for the running game and it could be argued the best secondary the Ravens will face prior to Seattle in Week 14 is Denver in Week 1. There is going to be (or should be) a lot of temptation for Trestman to air it out, especially if Smith starts out as hot as he did last year and/or Perriman shows that his hands can be trusted. Williams was considered the best tight end prospect in this year’s draft, but the odds are always long for a rookie at his position to contribute in fantasy. In other words, don’t make the mistake in believing Williams could be a huge sleeper just because Martellus Bennett thrived in Trestman’s offense in each of the last two seasons. Assuming Perriman isn’t in over his head as a rookie and the Ravens get contributions from each of their top five receivers (which I think we’ll be Trestman’s focus since he won’t have a dominant No. 1 to begin the season), Flacco appears on the verge of his first 4,000-yard passing season; I just don’t see any way he throws for fewer yards than he did in a run-heavy offense last year with the personnel he has in Trestman’s vertical offense.

Matchup analysis: It is nearly impossible to draw many conclusions about the Bengals from last season alone. Green was either playing injured or sitting out for what seemed like most of the season, which was a harbinger of things to come. We know from previous experience that OC Hue Jackson is one of the few play-callers in the league now that is content running the ball as much as possible, meaning touches should rarely be an issue for Hill and, often times, Bernard. Hill’s present and future owners should rejoice; the second-year back – outside of a rough two-week stretch leading into the bye – should have a relatively smooth path en route to being a low-end fantasy RB1. His biggest obstacle figures to be Bernard, who may very well end up being the team’s highest-scoring back in any contest in which the Bengals fall behind early. The frustrating (or possibly encouraging?) part of this arrangement is that Hill is a capable receiver, so a multi-week Bernard injury could set the LSU product up for a huge run. Hill’s owners would probably prefer Denver didn’t end up as Cincinnati’s Week 16 opponent (again), but it is a small price for his owners to pay considering the rest of his schedule. Bernard’s slate appears much more challenging than Hill’s simply because most of his contributions figure to come via the passing game; most of his yellow matchups are opponents that have linebackers and/or safeties that should be able to contain him somewhat.

Green has often been option No. 1 and option No. 2 for Dalton ever since they entered the league together in 2011. (Take a look at last year’s targets on his player page – during an injury-plagued campaign, no less – in case there was/is some question if that is still the case.) This is the first year in the time I’ve been doing this breakdown that all the AFC North teams have some questions defensively entering the season – especially on the back end – so this is easily the most advantageous schedule Green has ever had. Jackson’s high-volume running game will put a bit of a ceiling on what he could do, but this schedule sure looks like one in which he could challenge all of his career highs. It’d be a mistake to ask Jones to match his 2013 season from a touchdown perspective (he had 10), but his 51 catches and 712 receiving yards are repeatable, although any Bengals’ receiver after Green will probably be largely hit-or-miss this year. Eifert has a great chance to give Cincinnati what it hoped it was getting when it drafted Gresham. He also figures to be inconsistent – especially over the middle part of the season – but stands a great chance to finish second on the team in receiving and become the low-end fantasy TE1 most expected him to be by now. The good news for Dalton is that he is entering his age-28 season and should be nearing his prime. The bad news is that despite such a high-volume and effective rushing attack in 2014, he still threw 17 interceptions. He’s always going to be in the higher-end fantasy QB2 discussion because he plays with an elite talent like Green, but he is the reason why the Bengals’ passing-game schedule doesn’t look any easier than it does.

Matchup analysis: According to Pro Football Focus, LT Joe Thomas graded out as the NFL’s third-best tackle and LG Joel Bitonio finished as the fifth-best guard. C Alex Mack was PFF’s fourth-ranked pivot during his last full season in 2013. The point of mentioning this is that Cleveland not only owes its fans a winner, but owes it to itself to take advantage of such a solid offensive line corps while it still has one. That is extremely unlikely to happen this year, but the one way the Browns can field a decent offense is if they “Ground N’ Pound” in a way that would make Rex Ryan blush. The schedule isn’t overly conducive to such an approach, but this is a rare exception in which DeFilippo is wise to embrace Shanahan’s zone-running scheme and make the best out of a poor situation. Crowell will probably start for the majority of his owners once or twice before the bye and maybe once after it. The 2014 undrafted free agent has more make-you-miss than he showed as a rookie, but it is quite likely Shanahan asked him to focus almost entirely on being a one-cut runner and didn’t want him to get too creative once he got through the hole given his 225-pound frame. The real man of intrigue here, though, is Johnson. Browns GM Ray Farmer compared the Miami (Fla.) product to Brian Westbrook and Giovani Bernard shortly after drafting him. If DeFilippo has any sense about him as a first-time NFL play-caller, he will force-feed his rookie the ball on a high percentage of the third-and-longs Cleveland will face. His schedule is slightly easier than Crowell’s simply because he is the heavy favorite to be on the field at the end of each half and during the two-minute drill. Although the Browns have stated they intend on using a “hot-hand” approach to their backfield, it’d be a bit of a stunner if Johnson doesn’t find his way into at least 125 carries and 50-plus catches.

Bowe is probably a low-end second receiver in the league right now and every other Browns’ wideout should be either a third receiver or lower. McCown hasn’t enjoyed a ton of success in the NFL, but when he has, it has been in part due to huge and/or tall receivers. That’s a box that will likely go unchecked in 2015 as well. Suffice it to say Cleveland is the odds-on favorite to rank 32nd in the league in passing this year. Beside Hawkins, who is unlikely to start, the only other Browns capable of getting open on a fairly regular basis are Housler and Johnson. As such, they are the only players that have some degree of upside for fantasy purposes. Housler is an injury-prone but athletic potential mismatch for linebackers and safeties alike in the Cameron mode. With McCown and Johnny Manziel both likely to make multiple starts this season, it would be a mistake to suggest any one Brown passing-game member will be a weekly starter. If one player can emerge from this mess to do that, however, it would be Housler. The combination of poor quarterbacking and a fairly challenging schedule (especially after the bye) probably means he would do well to settle in as a high-upside TE2.

Matchup analysis: It is unfortunate the player that would have been the No. 1 overall player on many owners’ boards will miss the first two games of the season. However, I posed an argument in the USA Today Fantasy Football Preview magazine earlier this summer that Pittsburgh might actually be more inclined to force-feed Bell the ball over (what was then 13 games) like it did over the second half of last season. Perhaps that is ultimate glass-half-full thinking, but Bell was praised for his conditioning last year and it is not as if there is another back on the roster that he will be sharing carries with this season. Bell gets the benefit of the doubt on many of the matchups above because he is so heavily utilized in the passing game, masking what would be a pretty difficult slate for most backs (check out Williams’ grid to get an idea). From a total-yardage standpoint, Bell benefited greatly from eight games against the NFC and AFC South last year. From a touchdown-scoring perspective, it could easily be argued he didn’t come anywhere close to his ceiling. It seems a reasonable bet the Steelers – knowing what they have in Bell now – will try use a more balanced approach in the red zone (they were 61:39 in 2014), so it is entirely possible he exceeds the 11 total touchdowns he scored last year. The likely emergence of Bryant as a capable second receiver probably will slow his pace of 53 receiving yards per game a bit, although only enough where he finishes in the 60-catch, 600-yard range.

There’s really not too much I need to say about Brown, who has caught at least five passes and surpassed 50 yards receiving in 33 consecutive games (including playoffs). Seattle (Week 12) and Denver (Week 15) will probably offer the most resistance, but I’m not really sure there is a defensive back in the game capable of maintaining coverage on him consistently for more than three seconds. Better yet, Roethlisberger trusts him as much as any quarterback trusts a receiver in the league today. Bryant’s schedule is a much better indicator of the difficulty (or lack thereof) of Pittsburgh’s’ passing-game slate. If the offseason reports of improving his footwork and route-running are true, Bryant will be much more than a part-time deep threat and red-zone weapon this year. The presence of Brown and Bell already means Bryant won’t see double coverage; it isn’t out of the question that he could top 1,000 yards and 10 touchdowns. The schedule is slightly less forgiving for Miller, who is valued as much for his blocking as he is for his contributions in the short passing game at this stage of his career. Another 60-reception season seems reasonable, as does a low touchdown total. The fantasy-playoff matchups for Roethlisberger remove a bit of the luster from what would otherwise be a fairly smooth ride for the first 13 weeks of the season. Bell and Brown give him a safe floor, but it is fair to wonder if Big Ben can post one – much less three – fantasy QB1 games against three of the four toughest secondaries that he will face all season in Weeks 14-16.

NFC North

Matchup analysis: It has been well-established that Forte isn’t going to approach his NFL-record (for a running back) 102 catches from a season ago, averaged 3.9 YPC and will turn 30 by the end of the season. However, before owners throw him out to pasture, I think they need to realize he also has no realistic competition for his job and a pretty bright play-caller in Gase, whose job it is to “fix” Cutler. Critics will be quick to point out the Gase-led Broncos’ running backs totaled 68 catches on 96 targets in 2014. Supporters will counter that Denver’s back had 92 receptions on 116 targets in 2013 and probably suggest that one of the best ways to minimize Cutler’s propensity for making mistakes is to rely heavily on Forte coming out of the backfield. (Just some food for thought as we move along.) Forte’s abilities as a receiver will allow him to remain a rock-solid fantasy performer – although not to the degree of the last two seasons – and should help navigate around the few bumps he has in his schedule. Of particular interest are his last five matchups: two neutral, one yellow and two greens (in Weeks 15 and 16, no less). There doesn’t appear to be much reason why Forte can’t hit the same fantasy-point averages he did in his best years prior to Trestman’s arrival and it sure looks like he could be a difference-maker in the fantasy playoffs. Neither Minnesota (seventh-most) nor Tampa Bay (eighth-most) made the kind of significant upgrades in defensive personnel that would suggest they will improve much on their finishes against opposing fantasy backs last year in PPR leagues.

Much of the yellow on Cutler’s slate could be fairly neutral matchups IF Gase somehow gets to the root of his quarterback’s inconsistent decision-making more than his predecessors have. Thankfully, owners have much lower expectations of the 32-year-old in 2015 and it seems most people have their minds made up about him. Furthermore, I’m not sure matchups really matter to Cutler, who can throw four touchdowns against a fairly solid San Francisco defense like he did in Week 2 last season one week and look nearly clueless against a questionable New Orleans’ defense like he did in Week 15. If matchups don’t matter much to Cutler, you can imagine how that might affect his receivers. Nevertheless, Jeffery’s (and to a lesser extent, Royal’s) owners have to like what they see. It is quite possible that Minnesota and Washington will be the best pass defenses the Bears face over the final four weeks of the fantasy season. Just to give you some kind of idea what that statement means, the Redskins yielded the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing receivers last year. Given the Chicago defense figures to be a work in progress, it seems likely the Bears will be throwing the ball a lot. Bennett also isn’t going to approach 90 catches again in all likelihood, although I’m not so sure he isn’t Cutler’s No. 2 option in at least half of the games. Much like his other fellow Bears, his green and white matchups come at the right time for his owners.

Matchup analysis: I’m not going to spend a great deal of time on Johnson for a couple of reasons: 1) owners already know he is a matchup nightmare and difficult for any defense to contain when he is healthy and 2) he has an exceedingly easy string of matchups after a challenging first month. Again, if healthy, Megatron should easily live up to being a first-round fantasy selection. The story is much the same for Tate, although his ability to approach last year’s sky-high numbers are going to depend largely on Johnson’s health and to what degree they play less conservatively than last year (OC Joe Lombardi suggested in early April that Stafford played “smart football and sometimes to a fault”. Regardless, last year was a great example of what Tate’s ceiling (when Johnson missed games) and floor (when Megatron was healthy) will be as a Lion. Knowing that, it is still difficult to ignore how great his schedule appears to be after the bye. If Detroit gets even a bit more pass-happy in 2015, Tate should have little problem exceeding 70 receptions, even with a full 16 games from Johnson. Two reasons to be confident in Tate’s ability to come reasonably close to last year’s numbers are that Detroit lacks a viable third receiver and the tight ends aren’t going to catch many breaks in terms of the quality of cover linebackers and safeties they will face. In 2-3 years, Ebron may have solved his drop issues and be mature enough to overcome those matchups, but he didn’t give any indication he was ready to do that as a rookie.

When compared to their passing-game counterparts, Bell and Abdullah appear to be missing some color in their schedules. In reality, the NFC North just doesn’t have much in the way of great run defenses (Detroit still may have the best one despite the losses of DTs Ndamukong Suh and Nick Fairley), while Arizona and San Francisco lost some key run-pluggers up front. The Lions’ ideal backfield scenario (or at least the story they are trying to sell their fans) is one in which Bell is the thunder and Abdullah is the lightning. It seems unlikely that is how it will actually play out, especially given the fact that the 29-year-old Bell is going to enter camp coming off two surgeries and back-to-back seasons averaging 3.9 YPC. It is that last number that might end being the biggest reason that Abdullah becomes the lead back sooner than later; it is scary to think how explosive this offense could be with someone as explosive as Abdullah running against six- and seven-man fronts all day while the safeties play back in order to contain Johnson and/or Ebron. Although it would be nice to see more than one green matchup following the bye, it is hard to complain much about a schedule that has a total of four challenging matchups (one red and three yellows for Abdullah, two and two for Bell).