Year in and year out, fantasy owners are vexed when a breakout player from a season ago cannot come close to replicating his production from the previous year. Why does this happen so often?

Perhaps the best place to start is realizing scoring touchdowns is an opportunity-based statistic and not a talent per se. That's not to say talent doesn't play a huge role because it obviously does. There are countless examples every season in which a player's unique talent helped him score on a play that 95 percent of the rest of the players at his position probably could not have. Talent gets a player on the field. It helps a running back find a crease in the line of scrimmage or break a tackle. It helps a receiver create separation and attract more targets. Among many other factors, scoring touchdowns is by and large a combination of talent, coaching/scheme, some luck and opportunity - the last of those factors likely being the most important.

In a vacuum, it would probably be fair to say the longer the distance a player travels to score a touchdown, the more likely talent played a role in it. Let's take one of the more obvious cases from last year. Alvin Kamara - a player we will get more familiar with this week - scored five of his 13 offensive touchdowns last season from 20 or more yards (38.5 percent). Across the league, 314 of 1,121 offensive touchdowns last season were scored from 20 or more yards (28 percent). Most would agree talent played a huge role in that and would probably be correct. (He did average over six yards per carry and catch 81 percent of his targets after all!)

However, if talent was the primary and only (as some seem to believe) factor in getting into the end zone, how do we explain Le'Veon Bell scoring only 11 total touchdowns on over 400 offensive touches? In the 43 instances a running back compiled that many touches in a season in league history, 29 (67.4 percent) scored more than 11 times. Most people would agree Kamara and Bell are relatively equal when it comes to talent, so how do we explain Kamara scoring 13 times on 201 touches and Bell scoring 11 times on 406 touches?

There's more to fantasy than scoring touchdowns obviously, but I felt the preceding paragraph would be helpful for settling into the discussion I wanted to begin this week. In other words, what is repeatable and what is not? Regression to the mean is a topic that gets some discussion in the fantasy community but not near enough.

This week's focus will be on the running backs. In the first two sections, I will talk about which players are most likely to see a decrease or increase in touchdown scoring this season, based on any number of reasons. The final two sections will deal with players who are likely to see either their abnormally high or low efficiency marks (yards per carry, yards per reception and yards per target for the purposes of this article) decrease or increase. What I've done for each player is supplied their efficiency marks going as far back as the 2015 season (if applicable) as well as the league average for running backs who recorded at least 100 touches (including 50 carries). I settled on those benchmarks mainly because I concluded it is difficult for a back to be relevant in fantasy for any length of time if he does not exceed those totals in a given season.

I think most of the column headers below are self-explanatory, so I'll explain only two: Touch/TD is how many offensive touches (carries plus receptions) a player needed on average to score a touchdown, while Yds/Tgt refers to how many receiving yards a player averaged for every target - a number that will obviously be slightly different than yards per reception.

Next week, we will cover receivers and tight ends.

Likely candidates for touchdown regression

Note: Players such as Jonathan Stewart, DeMarco Murray, Mike Gillislee or Latavius Murray will not be included here for obvious reasons, as they may not be on fantasy rosters - or even on a NFL roster period in two of the cases - by midseason if the players in front of them on the depth chart stay healthy.

Alvin Kamara seems like an obvious candidate for regression but an expected uptick in touches could keep at an RB1 level.

Alvin Kamara, New Orleans

2017 Offensive TDs: 13
2018 Prediction: 11

Chris Thompson, Washington

One of the more obvious regression candidate among running backs expected to see regular work this year is probably Thompson. Not only did he score six of his 14 career touchdowns last season, but his TD/touch rate (17.2) was 6.2 touches lower than his rate from 2016 and not far off of Kamara's incredible mark. Durability has never been one of his strong suits either, and four of his six touchdowns in 2017 were from at least 16 yards away. (Only two of his previous eight career touchdowns covered that much distance.) And, of course, we still haven't discussed the arrival of second-round selection Derrius Guice, who has better hands than he was given credit for during the draft process. I'd give Thompson a decent chance to match last year's six touchdowns if he plays all 16 games, however.

2017 Offensive TDs: 6
2018 Prediction: 4

Todd Gurley, LA Rams

Gurley became the 34th running back in league history to score at least 19 touchdowns, so he's another obvious candidate to see his scores decline a bit in 2018. They aren't likely to decrease much, however, especially when we consider the Rams will head into their second season under HC Sean McVay and be one of the few teams in the league returning all five of their projected starters on the offensive line. It speaks to the kind of prodigious season the former No. 10 overall pick had when he led the league in TD production and still finished third overall in efficiency, scoring once every 18.1 touches. Still, history is working against Gurley, who needed eight total touchdowns over his final three games and six receiving TDs (after not recording a single one over his first two seasons combined) to reach 19. Another argument for regression would be the addition of John Kelly, who should beat out Malcolm Brown for the backup job in short order and prove himself capable of giving Gurley a rest every once in a while. (Gurley played an average of 53 snaps in the 15 games he was active for - a number the Rams probably wouldn't mind lowering a bit.) The most likely reason for regression though may be the offensive line, which remained intact and healthy virtually all season. Asking for back-to-back full seasons from aging linemen such as LT Andrew Whitworth (36 years old when the season starts) and C John Sullivan (33) is a tall order. Outside of perhaps the linebacker position, the depth of depth on the offensive line has to be this team's biggest concern.

2017 Offensive TDs: 19
2018 Prediction: 16

Mark Ingram, New Orleans

Of all the players in this section, the most obvious regression candidate is Ingram. Not only was it rumored Kamara would serve more as the 1A back in the Saints' offense shortly after 2017 was over, but Ingram got hit with his PED suspension to boot. Life's tough for a NFL running back who sees his role decreased the year after he averages 4.9 YPC on 230 attempts, catches 58 balls and scores 12 touchdowns. At any rate, Ingram's rushing touchdown efficiency in 2017 was well above the league average in the three categories he qualified for (one touchdown every 24 touches, one touchdown per 19.2 carries and one touchdown per 93.7 rushing yards).

2017 Offensive TDs: 12
2018 Prediction: 7

Dion Lewis, Tennessee

Another fairly obvious candidate for touchdown regression is Lewis, who probably isn't going to finish inside the top 10 in red zone rushing attempts (35) and carries inside the 10 (20) again this year, not with Derrick Henry on the roster. Lewis ended up becoming the Patriots' main back (inside and outside the 20) late in the season, scoring seven times inside the 10 overall. How often will he get replaced in those situations this season? None of this is to say Henry will automatically handle every touch inside scoring territory because Lewis has already proven himself adept at handling himself in scoring range. But Henry will probably get the bulk of them, and owners should not forget a ton of Lewis' production last year came late in the season in games in which Rex Burkhead got hurt or missed due to injury (as we discussed last week). Let's also not forget Lewis' previous career high in touches was 85 (he had 212 in 2017) and that he had not played in more than nine games in any of the previous seasons due mostly to injury.

2017 Offensive TDs: 9
2018 Prediction: 5

LeSean McCoy, Buffalo

This one has less to do with last year's efficiency (he was below the league averages in every efficiency category) and more to do with his situation. McCoy has played 15 or more games in four of the last five seasons and been the centerpiece of the Buffalo offense from about the time he arrived from Philadelphia three seasons ago. I personally believe HC Sean McDermott is the right man for the job and will have the Bills competitive on a yearly basis sooner than later. (Yes, I realize they made the playoffs last year, but I think most would agree they were fortunate to do so.) At any rate, McCoy will turn 30 in July and has already surpassed the 2,000-carry mark that seems to be about the point where most rushers begin to decline. Chris Ivory was added in free agency to take some of the load off of him and is probably best-suited to handle the same role Karlos Williams filled so well back in 2015. The biggest issue is attempting to replace the departures of LT Cordy Glenn, LG Richie Incognito and C Eric Wood with Dion Dawkins, Ryan Groy and Russell Bodine, respectively. To say the Bills lack the same road-grading line they had two years ago would be an understatement. If McCoy suffers any kind of drop-off in physical skill in 2018, he may struggle for four yards per carry and his TD ceiling may be around five.

2017 Offensive TDs: 8
2018 Prediction: 5

Others worthy of mention (using a healthy blend of last season's efficiency numbers and common sense):

Carlos Hyde, Cleveland
Marshawn Lynch, Oakland
Javorius Allen, Baltimore
Duke Johnson, Cleveland
Tevin Coleman, Atlanta

Likely candidates for positive touchdown regression

Much like we did in the first section, players such as David Johnson (season-ending injury in Week 1), Ezekiel Elliott (probably won't miss six games again), Marlon Mack (obvious increase in overall touches) and Jerick McKinnon (moving from a part-time role into a likely feature-back role) will not be included because their changes in circumstances are so significant that positive regression should be relatively easy to achieve.

Christian McCaffrey, Carolina

As a dynasty owner of McCaffrey and someone who rooted so hard for him last year on my league-winning, high-stakes redraft fantasy team, I was a bit shocked to be reminded he scored seven times last season. He found the end zone every 28.1 touches - a number that ranked 10th among the backs who met my aforementioned guidelines. But let's be honest: Carolina didn't come close to using him enough. There have been indications the Panthers are ready to bump him up from the 117 carries he recorded last season to over 200 in 2018. New OC Norv Turner has given his lead back at least 200 carries in seven of his eight full seasons as an offensive coordinator, so there's reason for optimism he'll get his opportunities. Even with McCaffrey's obvious playmaking ability in the passing game, his biggest obstacle to topping last season's seven touchdowns will be matching or exceeding his five receiving scores - a high number for any running back, even in today's NFL. For a player who has drawn comparisons to McCoy and Marshall Faulk and has a much better supporting cast around him this season, it would not surprise me if he finds his efficiency improves from one touchdown every 28.1 touches to one TD per every 22 or 23 touches. It may not sound like a big deal, but if we assume 250 touches for him this season, it's the difference between nine scores and 11-12.

2017 Offensive TDs: 7
2018 Prediction: 10

Joe Mixon, Cincinnati

The Bengals' insistence on feeding an unproductive Jeremy Hill semi-regular touches the first half the season before he went on IR for an ankle injury was yet another case of HC Marvin Lewis making his rookies "earn it," even when the talent suggests otherwise. Mixon was given a brief chance to take over as the featured back before a Week 13 concussion brought his most productive fantasy day to an end. But let's face it, Cincinnati's offensive line was so … er … offensive that Mixon probably wasn't going to score much last season no matter how much he played to the David Johnson comps he drew prior to getting drafted. The Bengals appear ready to take off the training wheels with Mixon as a sophomore, so his ridiculously poor TD efficiency of one score per every 52 touches figures to go down significantly. While Cincinnati hasn't exactly fix his other pressing problem - the offensive line - the additions of LT Cordy Glenn and first-round C Billy Price should be significant upgrades.

2017 Offensive TDs: 4
2018 Prediction: 8

Tarik Cohen, Chicago

If anyone outside of former OC Dowell Loggains can explain what his plan for Cohen was last season, I'd like to meet that person. A PPR superstar for the first three weeks and one of the few (and perhaps only) game-breaking talent on the Bears' offense last season was essentially mothballed for a five-week stretch after his stellar start. Though his activity picked up a bit after that, it was still inconsistent. Yet, he still somehow managed 140 touches. While a 181-pounder like Cohen will probably never post a solid touch per touchdown number given how infrequently he figures to be used inside the 5- or 10-yard line, one score for every 46.7 touches is still poor for someone with his elusiveness. New HC Matt Nagy can't seem to contain himself whenever someone asks him about Cohen and all the ways he can use his new offensive weapon. Expect Nagy to find a way to get Cohen at least 10 offensive touches per game, perhaps most often as a receiver after motioning him out of the backfield to force a matchup against a linebacker. The second-year scatback seems like a reasonable bet for roughly 100-110 carries and 60-plus receptions, and if he can bring his TD per touch rate down to Theo Riddick's 27.4 - admittedly good but not impossible given his talent - then Cohen could find the end zone six or seven times.

2017 Offensive TDs: 3
2018 Prediction: 6

C.J. Anderson, Carolina

This one seems pretty straightforward considering how many more ways the Panthers can threaten a defense than the 2017 Broncos could. Anderson scored two of his four touchdowns last season in Week 2 and was pretty much irrelevant from then on until fantasy playoff time. Despite Anderson being a better back at this point of his career than Jonathan Stewart was last year, Carolina would be foolish to give Anderson the same 207 touches his predecessor saw. Nevertheless, the former undrafted free-agent figures to be as much of a factor near the goal line as Stewart, who scored five of his seven touchdowns from the 1- or 2-yard line in 2017. I suspect McCaffrey will see more opportunities in close than he did as a rookie (two carries inside the five and five inside the 10), but this area figures to remain a province for Cam Newton and Stewart. When one considers there are only 27 times in league history that a back carried the ball at least 240 times and ran for at least 1,000 yards but scored only four total touchdowns like Anderson did last year, it seems logical to believe Denver's offense and/or offensive line had an awful lot to do with him scoring once every 68.3 touches.

2017 Offensive TDs: 4
2018 Prediction: 7

Isaiah Crowell, NY Jets

Ask any owner how long Crowell was in Cleveland and the likely answer will be something along the lines of "too long." It's debatable whether or not he made a lateral move from the Browns to the Jets, but this is another case of bad team plus bad line plus inconsistent usage equals poor touchdown production. Crowell is an underappreciated and often underutilized talent, and while he may not be a special player per se, he probably needed to get away from a coach in Hue Jackson that repeatedly said he needed to get him the back more often only to continually fail in that regard. To give readers some sense of how unpredictable this whole touch/TD rate can be, Crowell scored once every 34 touches in 2016 (versus once every 117 touches last season). By comparison, former teammate Duke Johnson scored once every 126 touches in 2016 and was among the league leaders at 22.3 in 2017. New York's offensive line may not be much - if any - better than Cleveland's was last season, but sheer regression to the mean would seem to suggest Crowell should score at least four to five times this year if he cuts his abysmal rate from 2017 in half.

2017 Offensive TDs: 2
2018 Prediction: 5

Jay Ajayi, Philadelphia

Midseason trades rarely lead to instant production for any team acquiring an offensive player because there just isn't enough time in a day or a week or even a month to catch the new player up to speed with the current offense or scrap the previous offense to build around the new asset. With that said, Ajayi was more productive in a limited role following his trade to Philadelphia than he was during the first half of the season as the featured back in Miami. Despite almost breaking off at least one big run every game as an Eagle and averaging 5.8 YPC with his new team, finding the end zone remained a difficult chore. While LeGarrette Blount's departure only leaves behind three combined scores from last year, it leaves Ajayi as the heavy favorite to see the majority of work in scoring territory if only because there are no other "big backs" expected to make the final roster. While he is a poor bet to repeat the 232 total touches he handled in 2017, Ajayi is almost guaranteed to score more often than once every 116 times he touches the ball behind a very good offensive line with a multitude of weapons in the passing game to keep defenses from stacking the box.

2017 Offensive TDs: 2
2018 Prediction: 6

LeGarrette Blount, Detroit

Sooner or later, Blount is going to run out of teams in which he can be the unquestioned short yardage and goal line specialist - at least one would think so. Detroit has taken several strides and invested significant resources - including two first-round picks over the last three drafts - to fix a running game that hasn't finished higher than 22nd in rushing since 2013. Much like the team he just left in New England, new HC Matt Patricia figures to begin his tenure in Detroit with a Patriot-like backfield with three or four players all serving a particular role in the offense. It would be mildly surprising if the Lions don't top last year's 363 rushing attempts fairly easily, if only because they should have the personnel now to run a more balanced offense and play with a few more leads. Blount is obviously not the 18-touchdown back he was in New England back in 2016, but he's still more than a two-score ball-carrier. Maybe rookie Kerryon Johnson gets a chance at the money carries in 2019, but the coaches aren't going to sign off on bringing in Blount unless they intend on using him at the goal line and in four-minute situations. Two seasons ago as a Patriot, Blount scored once every 17 touches. Last season with the Eagles, it was once every 60.3 touches. It isn't unreasonable to expect him to come close to splitting the difference in 2018. If so, five or six TDs is entirely reasonable.

2017 Offensive TDs: 3
2018 Prediction: 5

Others worthy of mention:

Derrick Henry, Tennessee
Peyton Barber, Tampa Bay
Alex Collins, Baltimore

Candidates for efficiency regression

Alvin Kamara, New Orleans

There are 19 instances in NFL history where a running back carried the ball at least 120 times and averaged at least six yards per attempt. Kamara became the first to do so since C.J. Spiller and Adrian Peterson did so in 2012 and only the fourth player since 1997 to accomplish the feat. Only two players (San Francisco's Johnny Strzykalski) and Cleveland's Marion Motley) have done so in consecutive years, and both of those backs did so in 1947-48. Of course, there probably aren't a lot of people who were realistically expecting a repeat from Kamara. But it's not just his yards per carry that blew the competition out of the water; the rookie made a mockery of the league average in every single efficiency stat I tracked for this article. He was the best in the league among backs in yards per carry (6.1), touchdowns per touch (15.5) and touchdowns per carry (15.0), third in touchdowns per rushing yard (91.0), fifth in yards per target (8.3), 11th in touchdowns per target (20.0), 13th in touchdowns per reception (16.2) and 17th in touchdown per receiving yard (16.2). The point to be made here is Kamara was almost historically efficient as a rookie, and that kind of thing tends to regress to the mean in a big way the following year.

For the sake of argument, let's assume Kamara finishes with 160 rushing attempts and stays at 81 receptions in 2018 but watches all of his efficiency stats sink closer to the league average. Here's a quick example of what I'm talking about:

For what it's worth, the 2018 projected efficiency stats are relatively close in all areas to Theo Riddick in 2017. At any rate, I believe I have painted a realistic picture as to what a slightly less efficient season might look like for Kamara while giving him 40 more carries and showing plenty of appreciation for his talent as well as his role in Payton's creative offense. Four fewer touchdowns alone only drops him from the overall RB3 finish to RB4 last year, but let's keep in mind all the efficiency marks I projected for him are still well above league average. What if he were to finish at the 2017 league average in every efficiency category?

I admit this scenario is far-fetched and highly unlikely to happen, but it should provide some perspective just how otherworldly Kamara's efficiency was last season. This projected 2018 line would leave him with 254.2 PPR fantasy points, which would have made him the overall RB8 last season. Still not bad. Here's the problem: New Orleans added trusty Benjamin Watson and Cameron Meredith in free agency, perhaps lowering Kamara's catch floor in the passing game. If he drops to 70 receptions and everything else stays the same above, he's dropping into RB10 (Christian McCaffrey) territory, and we've already discussed how inefficient McCaffrey was as a rookie, albeit due to circumstances mostly beyond his control.

Le'Veon Bell, Pittsburgh

Bell wasn't exactly efficient last season, but any back is typically going to be able to overcome inefficiency if he compiles 406 touches. Regardless of what kind of shape Bell can keep himself in while staying away from the team during training camp in the preseason, history does not usually treat backs who miss camp well and backs coming off such prodigious workloads typically struggle to stay healthy the following season. Both things are working against Bell. Need proof about the odds being stacked against him? There have been 16 instances since 2000 in which a back saw such a heavy workload one year and played the next. The average drop-off the following season has been about 110 touches, 800 total yards and 7.5 touchdowns. Also working against him? First-time NFL play-caller Randy Fichtner replaced former long-time OC Todd Haley after the season. Even if Fichtner keeps most of the offense intact, he will still want certain things done a certain way. Good luck to Bell learning those little nuances in a week of pad-less practices leading up to Week 1.

Kenyan Drake, Miami

Jay Ajayi averaged 4.9 YPC on 260 rushing attempts during his breakout 2016 season with Miami before averaging 3.4 prior to his midseason trade to Philadelphia last year, which goes to show just how fickle this efficiency thing can be from year to year. Drake averaged 4.8 YPC last season. Miami wants to believe it has improved its offensive line and it probably has, but the fact of the matter is only Seattle (3.18) and Detroit (3.16) provided fewer adjusted line yards than the Dolphins (3.26) did in 2017, per Football Outsiders. Despite trading away Jarvis Landry, Miami may be as deep at receiver as it has been in recent memory, which could be one way (running a bit of a spread look) to combat all the attention Drake is almost certain to see from the get-go this season. Still, 4.8 YPC is a tough number to hit for most NFL backs with everything working in their favor, and Drake doesn't have that going for him. Of course, all of this assumes he performs well enough in camp to keep Frank Gore on the bench (doubtful if only because Gore refuses to go quietly into that good night) and makes Kalen Ballage an afterthought - at least for one year.

Kareem Hunt, Kansas City

Like I just said in the preceding paragraph, 4.8 YPC (or 4.9, in this case) is not a level many backs can reach in back-to-back years. Hunt also averaged 8.6 yards per reception and 7.2 yards per target, each of which was well above league average. A strong case can be made that Hunt will actually be more efficient in 2018 simply because defenses are going to struggle trying to keep Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins and Travis Kelce in front of them with rocket-armed Patrick Mahomes distributing the ball. However, what was already a slightly above-average front five lacking quality depth got arguably worse in the offseason. HC Andy Reid appears interested in getting Hunt more involved in the passing game this time around, so a slight dip in efficiency figures to go unnoticed by most PPR owners if his catch total travels north of 60. In short, history says a regression is likely given his high efficiency marks, but this is probably the one player in this group with which I would have the least concern.

Others worthy of mention:

Alex Collins, Baltimore (4.6 YPC)
Marshawn Lynch, Oakland (4.3 YPC)

Candidates for positive efficiency regression

Melvin Gordon, LA Chargers

Quick, name someone on the Chargers' offensive line last year besides LT Russell Okung. Not very easy, is it? Name recognition admittedly doesn't mean a whole lot when it comes to offensive linemen because it seems like half of the football-watching public doesn't know whether or not one of the big uglies is having a good year, much less a good game. The point to be made here is that Gordon hasn't played behind an offensive line that has ranked above 20th in adjusted line yards since he arrived in 2015. Following the additions blocking TE Virgil Green and the anticipated return of 2017 second-round pick RG Forrest Lamp, it would seem the 25-year-old back will finally get his chance to prove he is more than "just another guy" that many in the fantasy community seem to think he is.

Jordan Howard, Chicago

Yet another example of the fickle nature of efficiency, Howard averaged 5.2 yards per carry and 10.3 yards per reception as a rookie in 2016 before plummeting to 4.1 and 5.4, respectively, as a sophomore. As is usually the case, he will likely spend the majority of his career somewhere in between. The upcoming season figures to be on the high end of that range, as the offensive line keeps getting better - likely LG James Daniels may have been the most pro-ready lineman in the draft - and the upgrade in play-calling from former OC Dowell Loggains to Nagy is substantial. But Howard's inclusion in this section is merely a reflection on how pathetic his situation was last season.

Jerick McKinnon, San Francisco

It's easy for potential owners to get paranoid when it comes to McKinnon, who is expected to be a full-time starter for the first time in his fifth season in the league. He's averaged 3.4 and 3.8 yards per carry, respectively, over the last two seasons. He's often been on the wrong end of a platoon with the likes of Matt Asiata and Latavius Murray. But in Kyle (Shanahan) we trust. Devonta Freeman, whose role in the offense McKinnon is supposed to play, was a part-time player behind an aging Steven Jackson in 2014 and averaged 3.8 yards per carry as a rookie back. Enter Shanahan as the new play-caller in Atlanta in 2015 and Freeman has emerged as a pretty good bet annually for 1,200 total yards and eight touchdowns even in a bad year. People no longer question Freeman's ability to handle a heavy workload and he's 5-8 and 206 pounds. McKinnon is 5-9 and 205. McKinnon is a superior athlete and will be playing for the first time with a coach who is committed to him. The 49ers did not commit $7.5 million per season to McKinnon because they think he's a committee back who can't handle a heavy workload. His work ethic and love for the weight room has been fairly well-chronicled. Get on board.

Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas

Elliott will almost certainly take a hit in the receiving efficiency department (which tends to vary wildly for running backs from year to year anyway) as 10-plus yards per reception is a high number for a running back, but he makes this list because he is just as certain not to average 4.1 yards per carry again this season. It almost goes without saying Elliott had to feel the effects of the legal drama he endured in 2017. But the biggest reason he was no better than league average as a runner had to do with the cracks that started to form on the offensive line, including but not limited to the loss of OG Ronald Leary to Denver the previous offseason. First-round draft pick Connor Williams is no guarantee to be the next Leary as a rookie, but he should be better than Jonathan Cooper was at left guard in 2017. Better luck alone may allow LT Tyron Smith to stay healthy longer than he did a year ago. Getting respectable play from Williams and more healthy games from Smith may be the only positive developments Elliott needs to return somewhere close to the 5.1 YPC he posted as a rookie.

Marlon Mack, Indianapolis

There's no telling whether or not the Colts will allow Mack a chance to carry the load (new HC Frank Reich's history would suggest he will not), but Indianapolis is slowly but surely fixing the offensive line issues that have plagued the team for years. First-round OG Quenton Nelson is arguably the best guard prospect to come out in the draft since at least 2000 and figures to work in tandem with C Ryan Kelly for the next decade. Mack gets dinged by some football analysts because so many of his runs (32.2 percent) went for no yards or less last year. While Mack deserves a bit of the blame for trying some of those "nothing runs" into big plays, most runners don't purposely concede yardage unless a defender forces him to do so. By comparison, a league-best 5.4 percent of his runs went for 20 or more yards. If Mack does nothing more than bring his zero or negative runs down to a more palatable 20 percent because the line is blocking better and Andrew Luck is causing defenses to respect the passing game, Mack could go from 3.9 YPC to 4.5 relatively easily.

Leonard Fournette, Jacksonville

While the departure of TE Marcedes Lewis will hurt the running game, the addition of LG Andrew Norwell more than makes up for it and addresses what was probably the weakest link on the line last season. However, the major reason Fournette should be more effective is it seems unlikely he will continue to battle ankle injuries to the degree he's had to over the last two years, including his final season at LSU. With a full offseason to heal - something he certainly didn't have the luxury of as a rookie - and better line play, it's conceivable he could match or improve on the 4.6 YPC he enjoyed in Weeks 1-6.

Others worthy of mention:

Lamar Miller, Houston (3.7 YPC)
Peyton Barber, Tampa Bay (3.9 YPC)
Tevin Coleman, Atlanta (4.0 YPC)