Considered by some the most complete dual-threat quarterback
in draft history, Murray is the Cardinals' second attempt at the
position in the first round in as many years. Most people already
know the story with new HC Kliff Kingsbury and Murray, and it
goes without saying the reigning Heisman Trophy winner should
be a quick study after setting the college world on fire in his
only full season as a starter at Oklahoma. At 5-10 and 207 pounds,
Murray is going to test the ongoing debate of how big an NFL quarterback
has to be. With that said, Murray is on the level of Lamar
Jackson and Michael Vick in terms of athleticism, and he is
a more refined passer than either one of them. And that's where
his fantasy value is going to come from initially, although Arizona
has some targets to ease him into the NFL in Larry
Fitzgerald and Christian
Kirk. Murray will be a Day 1 starter - probably regardless
of whether or not Josh
Rosen remains on the roster. For fantasy purposes, it's not
unthinkable he emerges as a low-end QB1, although owners should
try to snag him as a high-upside QB2 due to the injury risk that
comes along with a quarterback that runs so much and operates
behind a poor offensive line.
1.06 – QB Daniel Jones, NYG
Teams often try to hit doubles instead of homers at the top of the
draft, and this pick has that kind of feel. I mentioned in my draft
write-ups of Jones that he might be the most "safe" pick at his
position, but it's hard to defend that kind of selection when many
of his weaknesses - such as questionable arm strength - don't figure
to play well late in the season, although it may not matter if the
Giants keep loading up on slot options such as Sterling
Shepard and Golden
Tate. GM Dave Gettleman is big on drafting players with college
track records and stated earlier recently that it takes a different
type of quarterback to play in New York due to the adversity that
comes with playing in the city. The Duke standout dealt with his
fair share of adversity on the field in college playing a poor offensive
line and watching his pass-catchers drop 9.2 percent of his throws
last season. Legendary personnel evaluator and SiriusXM NFL Radio
analyst Gil Brandt recently made some waves when he not only stated
how much he loved Jones as a prospect, although he is more Eli than
Peyton. Jones will sit for the majority of 2019 as Eli plays out
the final year of his contract, but it's hard to like him even as
a dynasty option in what figures to be a run-based offense minus
Odell Beckham Jr.
1.08 – TE T.J. Hockenson, DET
Hockenson is arguably the most complete tight end to enter the
league since O.J. Howard. Detroit fans may be afraid of another
tight end after Eric Ebron didn't work out there, but the Iowa
product is a different kind of cat. HC Matt Patricia would like
nothing more than to end the Lions' many years of misery when
it comes to establishing a solid running game and Hockenson will
be of great help there. Obviously, Detroit did not draft him just
for his run-blocking prowess. Hockenson reminds me of Travis Kelce,
and he could easily rise to that level. He is a very good route-runner
and dropped only one of 51 catchable targets last season per Pro
Football Focus, and he creates separation as well as any tight
end since Howard. His presence should also only improve make life
easier for Marvin Jones and Kenny Golladay. Rookie tight ends
are historically poor bets for fantasy purposes, but Hockenson
has a chance to contribute right away. More than likely, however,
he will be a low-end TE2 in 2019 as he shares snaps with Jesse
James, but he should be a great option at the end of the first
round for dynasty leaguers.
1.15 – QB Dwayne Haskins, WAS
Oh, the irony. The kid who grew up a Giants' fan will get multiple
shots at proving why he should have been the choice over Daniel
Jones. Haskins was a one-year starter at Ohio State, but what
a year it was (4,831 yards and 50 touchdowns). The Maryland native
born in New Jersey may be the draft's top pocket passer, and he
addresses what has quickly become a problem area for the Redskins
following the potential career-ending knee injury to Alex Smith.
Haskins' accuracy in the short and intermediate areas is what
made him so successful with the Buckeyes in 2018. He doesn't put
near enough air under his deep ball, but that flaw should be minimized
playing in HC Jay Gruden's offense. My comparisons for him were
Jameis Winston and Teddy Bridgewater, and he was my second-ranked
quarterback despite having only one year of experience. Given
the current depth chart in Washington (Smith, Case Keenum and
an injured Colt McCoy), Haskins has a realistic shot of starting
the season opener. The problem is his supporting cast: Jordan
Reed, Trey Quinn, Paul Richardson and Josh Doctson are unlikely
to keep defensive coordinators awake at night. As such, he will
most likely be a low-end QB2/bye-week filler option at best in
2019.
1.20 – TE Noah Fant, DEN
Denver traded down from No. 10 to No. 20 and probably lands the
player he was going to take with its original pick. Joe Flacco
has long been as friendly to tight ends as any quarterback, and
it could be argued Fant is the most talented one he has had at
his disposal. Any discussion about Fant should begin with his
incredible athleticism, and it should be noted new OC Rich Scangarello
is a Kyle Shanahan disciple who just got done serving as the position
coach for San Francisco during George Kittle's breakout season.
Fant is the kind of mismatch weapon teams usually drool over in
today's game, so it would be surprising if he isn't allowed to
stretch the field early in his career. Fant compares favorably
to Eric Ebron and Jared Cook, even down to the point where he
struggles with drops (13 drops on 91 catchable targets over his
career, per Pro Football Focus). He's not a liability as a blocker,
but he needs a lot of work in that area. If Fant can correct those
issues, he's got a great chance to be a fantasy TE1 early in his
career. He's probably a better bet for rookie-year production
than his college teammate T.J. Hockenson, but the latter is a
better long-term bet.
1.24 – RB Josh Jacobs, OAK
It was long believed Jacobs was destined for Oakland, something
that appeared to become more of a certainty when Marshawn Lynch
decided he wasn't going to play in 2019. Although he was stuck
in a timeshare at Alabama and topped 15 touches only three times
in 40 games (251 career carries, 48 receptions), Jacobs proved
he was a complete back down the stretch in 2018, showing the ability
to line up all over the field and pound the rock in between the
tackles. The top concerns most evaluators seem to have with him
are the fact he never has proven he can carry the load and injury
history, but the tape is so good with him that it would be ridiculous
to pass on him because of that. While Jalen Richard will likely
steal some touches from him, Jacobs profiles as a young Frank
Gore who doesn't need to come off the field. The combination of
talent and landing spot makes him the best bet of anyone in this
draft class to produce right away. Redraft owners would be justified
taking him as early as the late part of the second round this
spring and summer. Jacobs is easily in the running to be considered
the top overall pick in rookie drafts as well.
1.25 – WR Marquise Brown, BAL
Brown is the first receiver to come off the board at No. 25 and
the draft's biggest home run threat. His draft stock wasn't helped
by the Lisfranc injury he suffered during the Big 12 Championship,
and his subsequent surgery to correct the problem kept him from
working out at the NFL Combine and in the weeks leading up to
the draft. Although he never received any combine testing numbers,
it's safe to say he may enter the league as one of the NFL's top-five
fastest players. My high-end comp for him was T.Y. Hilton and
many others believe he is a DeSean Jackson clone, and it is entirely
possible he settles somewhere in between the two. Unfortunately,
Lamar Jackson isn't exactly known for his accuracy and Baltimore
is expected to maintain the run-heavy offense it employed once
Jackson took over last season. Given the fact Willie Snead is
the best receiver on the roster, Brown should not have any issue
becoming an instant starter. Unfortunately, the Ravens' offensive
approach makes it hard to get too excited about his fantasy prospects
as things stand now. Owners should view him as little more than
a low-end WR4 in redraft leagues. Similarly, he makes for an unexciting
pick in rookie drafts.
1.32 – WR N’Keal Harry, NE
Harry is perhaps the most interesting selection of the first
round and was the first of many moves New England will make in
the coming weeks and maybe even years to replace the size and
red zone ability lost when Rob Gronkowski retired. It's hard to
recall the last time Tom Brady had a big outside receiver (Brandon
LaFell is the last one I can remember and he is an average talent
at best) who played "above the rim" in the same way
Allen Robinson and Dez Bryant do (two of Harry's most popular
comps). Arizona State used Harry in the slot a bunch, so it will
be interesting to see if HC Bill Belichick and OC Josh McDaniels
view him as Julian Edelman's successor or if he is just a different
kind of offensive weapon for New England. He's certainly the first
Patriot receiver in recent memory who figures to do a lot of damage
after the catch. The problem I have with Harry is he doesn't create
much separation and isn't a particularly crisp route-runner, the
latter of which isn't going to fly with Brady. Nevertheless, his
landing spot is going to make him a hot commodity in fantasy,
especially for however long Josh Gordon is not with the team.
Without Gordon around, it's very possible Harry is drafted as
a WR3 in redraft leagues this season. In rookie drafts, he figures
to battle Josh Jacobs to go first overall. Doug Orth has written for FF
Today since 2006 and been featured in USA Today’s Fantasy
Football Preview magazine since 2010. He hosted USA Today’s
hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday
in 2012-13 and appears as a guest analyst on a number of national
sports radio shows, including Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive”.
Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.
