Anthony
Miller isn't going to get much of an opportunity
to be the man in Chicago anytime soon barring an injury to Allen
Robinson. He's also unlikely to benefit from superb quarterback
play anytime soon, but don't make the mistake of believing he
is condemned to spend the rest of his rookie contract being an
average fantasy option. We were able to catch a glimpse of what
he was capable of late last year once Taylor
Gabriel was lost for the year and HC Matt Nagy stopped trying
to put obstacles in his path. The 25-year-old has been held back
by shoulder injuries in each of his first two pro seasons, so
his overall production through 31 career games (85 catches for
1,079 yards and six TDs) doesn't tell the whole story. Bears WRs
coach Mike Furrey spoke to Miller's improved maturation and football
IQ in late June and suggested the team will have a "more structured
preparation schedule" for the wideout in 2020. If we assume Nick
Foles wins the quarterback job (or the competition inspires
Mitchell
Trubisky to play better), there's a clear path to 100-plus
targets for Miller. When healthy, he's a dynamic playmaker who
is guaranteed to draw single coverage with Robinson attracting
the bulk of the defense's attention.
I have started to talk about risk tolerance more in recent years,
and perhaps no one better exemplifies that better at the moment
that Deebo
Samuel. It's blasphemous to have him as low as I
do on this Big Board
- all the quarterbacks being pushed up due to the Superflex setting
contributes to it - but there may not be a better WR4 target for
fantasy owners as drafting season comes to an end. Recent reports
have him "sprinting hard." Even if he ends up on the PUP list
in a worst-case scenario - which seems unlikely at this point
- Samuel should return to the same kind of role he had at the
end of last year. There's no question drafting Samuel is a risk,
but is there much question he's a top-25 fantasy receiver if he
is completely healed - even if he has to miss two or three games?
I was leery of rolling the dice on him earlier this summer, but
I never imagined he'd regularly be available after the 10th round.
There has been a stunning lack of fantasy hype this summer surrounding
Michael
Pittman Jr., especially considering how much the
Colts fell in love with him during the draft process. Philip
Rivers has made a living by targeting big receivers downfield,
and "big" is a good way to describe the 6-4, 223-pound rookie.
He projects as an immediate starter in an offense that should
boast one of the league's best rushing attacks and field one of
its best offensive lines. Both of those positives will make it
possible for Indianapolis to take more deep shots, and that is
good news for a receiver who amassed 36 percent of his yards on
go routes last season at USC. It gets better. Pittman's size makes
him a strong candidate to become Rivers' favorite red zone target.
While his immediate role is unlikely to make him a consistent
fantasy option, WR4s with eight-touchdown upside who draw Vincent
Jackson comps don't come around all that often.
DeSean
Jackson is a player who should be getting more love
in drafts than he is. I have repeatedly said I don't believe in
"injury-prone" players, but I do believe certain body types are
more (and/or less) conducive to holding up well over a 16-game
schedule. Jackson is a lot like a high-maintenance sports car,
but I'm not sure how that makes in any different than Will
Fuller. Yet, one usually comes off the board in the sixth
round while the other is typically available six or more rounds
later. Jackson has played exactly one full game with Carson
Wentz, and that game resulted in an 8-154-2 line for the 33-year-old.
D-Jax has much more of a track record than Fuller, yet the fantasy
community would rather talk about Fuller's unrealized upside and
gloss over the fact he has failed to score a touchdown in 14 of
his last 15 games. With rookie Jalen
Reagor set to miss the first game or two of this season, Jackson
will be the clear top option at receiver in Philly. Now also seems
like a good time to remind readers that Jackson's best routes
throughout his career have been the go, hitch and out - the same
ones Wentz has been the most efficient at throwing. One year probably
didn't change things for either party. I hate having him as low
as I do on the Big Board, but his injury history makes him a poor
option to be the first receiver off a fantasy bench - especially
when there is so much depth at the position.
(Tight) end of the road
Don't leave your final drafts of the summer without picking up
some shares of Irv
Smith, assuming it makes sense to roster a high-upside
TE2. First and foremost, Minnesota projects to pass more often
in 2020 to make up for a secondary that was gutted - particularly
at cornerback - in the offseason. The Vikings attempted only 466
throws in 2019, and they'll need to find a way to replace the
94 targets Stefon
Diggs leaves behind. Smith and Kyle
Rudolph were playing almost the same number of snaps over
the second half of last season, and Diggs' departure gives OC
Gary Kubiak a perfect opportunity to prove GM Rick Spielman right
about Smith possessing a lot of "(Jordan) Reed-like traits." Smith
saw 47 targets as a rookie, and I would expect that number to
increase to 70-plus in Kubiak's offense - one that has long been
very tight end-friendly. Adam
Thielen may end up being a target hog, but opponents will
almost certainly tilt coverage in his direction in crunch time
and take their chances that Justin
Jefferson and Olabisi
Johnson can beat them. It should add up to a lot of short
throws over the middle and in the flat to Smith.
Tyler
Eifert doesn't need to be drafted in the bulk of
leagues, but it's not hard to imagine a scenario in which he finishes
as a top 15 fantasy tight end. Jacksonville could easily exceed
600 pass attempts this year, meaning there would be plenty left
for other Jaguars even if we give DJ Chark about 150 (which seems
unlikely), Dede
Westbrook 100-plus and the running backs 100-plus. Eifert's
biggest bugaboo has always been his durability, but that's part
of the reason he is essentially free in drafts. New OC Jay Gruden's
offense has also long been friendly to tight ends, which is more
important now since Eifert's main competition for targets at the
position (Josh
Oliver) was lost for the season a couple of weeks ago. The
former Bengal could easily emerge as Gardner
Minshew's top weapon in the red zone as well given his size
(6-6) and athleticism, although banking on many touchdowns from
players in this offense could be detrimental to one's sanity.
Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and been featured
in USA TODAY's Fantasy Football Preview magazine since 2010. He
is also a high-stakes player who often appears as a guest analyst
on a number of national sports radio shows, such as Sirius XM's
"Fantasy Drive." Doug is also a member of the Fantasy
Sports Writers Association.