A large part of my success in 20-plus years in this industry - and
specifically in the 18 years I have utilized Preseason Matchup Analysis
- can be attributed to preparing for the playoffs before the season
begins. Do I put a lot of weight into matchups in July and August?
No, but I do account for them. That is an important distinction.
If it does nothing else, it helps to break ties. There is no question
in my mind that I have avoided a lot more "bust players"
over the years than the average analyst/fantasy player because of
it.
While I do not expect the majority of readers to go to the same
lengths that I do, the most savvy managers tend to use the time
leading up to Thanksgiving as an opportunity to prepare for the
postseason. It behooves managers to consider now what matchups
we want to target in December. (I guarantee league-mates in most
competitive leagues have already started doing this or are about
to do so.) Lining up key handcuffs and great matchups now allows
us to save on FAAB for more important expenditures such as when
a manager is forced to drop a key player during the Week 12 or
Week 14 bye-week crunch.
The focus of this week will be targeting wide receivers, tight
ends, kickers and defense/special teams units with the best fantasy
playoff matchups. (I gave the same treatment to quarterbacks and
running backs last
week.)
Most of the reason for doing this - as opposed to a week or so
before Week 15 - is because it leaves fantasy managers some time
to acquire the assets via trade or off the waiver wire. I will
mention the elite options when applicable, but the point of this
piece is to explain why the more "available" players
could be almost as valuable - if not more so.
I understand the majority of the players below are already on
rosters, but the bulk of them can be had a slight discount for
one reason or another via trade.
Note: Opponents highlighted in green represent what should
be favorable matchups. Opponents highlighted in red represent
what should be unfavorable matchups.
Wide Receivers
Let's begin with the defenses that have been the most favorable
fantasy matchups for receivers:
Of the 12 teams with the softest receiver schedules during the
fantasy playoffs, here are the most realistic options of the bunch
(in the order I would prefer them rest of season):
Looking at it from a full-season perspective, Evans' playoff
schedule is not so much overly favorable as it lacks difficult
matchups. However, looking at how Tampa Bay's upcoming opponents
have performed recently, it becomes clearer as to why Evans is
listed here. Over the course of the full season, the Chargers
(Week 15) are a middle-of-the-pack matchup for receivers. Over
the last three games, Los Angeles has given up at least 19.5 fantasy
points to one receiver every week and ranks as the most favorable
matchup for receivers over that stretch. The Cowboys (Week 16)
have done a fine job of limiting big games to wideouts for most
of the season, but Dallas is a sinking ship that might have checked
out by the time the Bucs visit. (The Cowboys are at the point
where opponents can probably pick how they want to dissect them.
Most of their recent opponents have done it via the run.) The
Panthers (Week 17) are another middling matchup, although most
of that is a product of opponents running the ball with so much
success against them. While Tampa Bay will run on Carolina, the
Bucs are not the Lions in the sense that they can pound a team
into submission. They will need to build a lead first, and that
will most likely come via Baker Mayfield hooking up with Evans.
There is no question that acquiring Evans now (as opposed to
when he first went on IR before the start of Week 8) will be difficult.
However, I think he will be worth the trouble. Evans will be more
of a focal point of the offense with Chris
Godwin no longer around to steal targets. Cade
Otton will likely retain some form of the big slot role he
has filled during Godwin's absence, but it would be somewhat shocking
if the passing game does not rely heavily on the 31-year-old.
Evans will be the leader of that bunch if only because he is a
near-impossible matchup for defenses, which he proved yet again
despite largely playing second fiddle to Godwin before getting
hurt. Perhaps just as importantly, Mayfield has played too well
this season to believe Evans will not do likewise even if he sees
no more involvement than he did before his early Week 7 exit (seven
targets per game through Week 6). It says here he will enjoy something
closer to a 30 percent target share over the remainder of the
season, which would almost certainly lock him into WR1 production.
It should also be enough to make him a strong candidate to be
the best receiver during the fantasy postseason.
Overall ranking for most favorable fantasy playoff schedule:
9th
The Bengals (Week 15) may only rank as the 13th-best matchup
for receivers for the season, but all one has to do is look at
how many points they are allowing per game (26.9) to gain an appreciation
for how good of a matchup they are. Cincinnati has yielded at
least 24 points in four straight (at least 34 points in three
of those contests) and in eight of 11 games. Cam Taylor-Britt
- the Bengals' top corner - has also been benched multiple times.
While Tennessee is far from an offensive juggernaut, that game
has some shootout potential. If it goes in that direction, Ridley
will be a big part of it. The Colts (Week 16) are not the great
matchup they were earlier in the season thanks in part to the
emergence of CB Samuel Womack, although it should be noted they
have not faced many passing games at full strength since early
October. The Jaguars (Week 17) have been a sieve against receivers
virtually all season long. They struggled in particular against
deep threats.
While it is understandable why fantasy managers would not want
to invest in the Tennessee passing game, Will Levis has played
much smarter since returning from his shoulder injury in Week
10. (He is still taking too many sacks, but that is not relevant
to this discussion.) The most encouraging thing about the Titans'
offense was the realization in Week 8 that the passing game needs
to be Ridley-focused following the trade of DeAndre Hopkins. In
the four games since, Ridley is one of four receivers with a target
share higher than 30 percent. Not only has Ridley's involvement
in the offense spiked, but he has also caught 63.2 percent of
the throws in his direction while posting an average depth of
target of 15.2 against some quality competition. None of the three
teams he will see during the fantasy playoffs will have corners
as good as the ones he saw during that stretch, including Christian Gonzalez, Carlton Davis or Stephon Gilmore.
Overall ranking for most favorable fantasy playoff schedule:
5th
Unsurprisingly, the three teams Sutton faces during the fantasy
playoffs are teams that have already been discussed. While Sutton
is not quite the only game in town to the degree Evans and Ridley
are, his 23.3 percent target share and 31.4 percent first-read
share speak to how important he is to the Denver offense. (If
we remove Sutton's infamous zero-target game against the Saints
in Week 7, those numbers jump to 25.1 and 32.9, respectively.)
Suffice it to say that if the Broncos are unlikely to bludgeon
their opponent on the ground as they did to New Orleans, Sutton
will be heavily involved.
Last season, Sutton lived on good touchdown luck, scoring 10
times on 59 catches. This season, however, he is easily on track
to have his best year since his breakout 2019 season (72 catches,
1,112 yards and six touchdowns). Even if we include Week 7, he
is on pace for 76 catches, 1,000 yards and five scores on 131
targets. If we exclude Week 7, his pace stats are 83 catches,
1,100 and five scores on 144 targets. The best part is Sutton
has been a target magnet since the Saints' game, recording a 28
percent target share in that time. Sutton is already the overall
WR17 on the season (total points) and the WR24 in fantasy points
per game (min. six games played) despite a slow first half and
a bagel. He could (and should) be a top 15 option in both categories
down the stretch and especially during the fantasy postseason.
Overall ranking for most favorable fantasy playoff schedule:
10th
As much as fantasy analysis is sometimes a game of educated guessing,
that is especially the case for any Chicago receiver based on
one game under interim offensive coordinator Thomas Brown. With
that said, Brown seemed to identify some of the biggest issues
holding back the Bears' offense, two of which were Caleb Williams
holding onto the ball too long and too many routes taking too
long to develop. More short passes and more sustained drives should
lead to more volume, so it should come as no surprise that each
of Chicago's top three receivers saw at least seven targets against
the Packers in Brown's debut. Odunze led the pack with 10 targets,
which is a good omen. There is almost no chance Odunze will attract
shadow coverage from a team's best corner this season with All-Pro
talent like D.J. Moore and Keenan Allen flanking him. It is a
long way of saying that will typically line up opposite the opponent's
second or third corner. He regularly won that matchup versus the
Packers last week. He should do the same against two of the four
most favorable matchups for receivers (Vikings and Lions). The
Seahawks (Week 17) should be better against receivers than they
are (12th-most favorable matchup), but they have been getting
drilled by bigger receivers who can get downfield for more than
a month (Drake London, Demarcus Robinson and Jauan Jennings).
It should surprise no one if Odunze begins to see a similar level
of involvement in the offense as Moore moving forward.
Overall ranking for most favorable fantasy playoff schedule:
1st
Of the 12 teams with the softest tight end schedules during the
fantasy playoffs, here are the most realistic options of the bunch
(in the order I would prefer them rest of season):
Dissly's fantasy playoff schedule does not appear to be all that
great at first glance with two relatively neutral matchups. The
"easy" one should be the Bucs (Week 15), who have been
pounded by tight ends for the better part of the last two months.
While most of the tight ends doing damage against them are considered
some of the best at their position, part of the reason why it
happens is that Tampa Bay's reliance on the blitz often forces
quarterbacks to get rid of the ball quicker and throw shorter,
which works well for tight ends. The Broncos (Week 16) fall into
a similar category as the Bucs given their blitz-happy ways, but
part of the reason they rank as a middle-of-the-pack matchup instead
of a great one is that they have not faced nearly as many high-end
tight ends as Tampa Bay has. The Patriots rank just outside the
top 10 in terms of most difficult matchups for tight ends, but
they are like Denver in that they have missed most of the elite
options at the position. Evan Engram (in Week 7) is the last "name"
that New England has faced at the position, while George Kittle
and Jonnu Smith have been the only top 10 fantasy tight ends on
the Patriots' schedule to this point. New England faced those
players in Week 4 and Week 5, respectively.
Hayden Hurst saw more snaps than any other Chargers tight end
through the team's Week 5 bye, but he has been an afterthought
since then with no more than a 15 percent snap share in any game.
Dissly has been the driving force for that change, going from
primarily a blocker - which has long been his strength when he
has been healthy - to one of Justin Herbert's most trusted options
in the passing game. Beginning in Week 7, Dissly has been the
overall TE11 and has typically played about 70 percent of the
offensive snaps. While he lacks huge upside and has been targeted
inside the 10 just once all season, he has earned enough trust
from Herbert to be considered a regular fantasy starter.
Overall ranking for most favorable fantasy playoff schedule:
2nd
The primary reason Pitts is listed here is the juicy Week 15
tilt against the Raiders. The Commanders (Week 17) are very much
a middle-of-the-pack matchup, while the Giants (Week 16) have
given up the fewest fantasy points to the position. The ridiculous
part about Pitts' season is that he has faced only one defense
that ranks inside the top half of the league in limiting fantasy
points to tight ends since Week 2, yet he is in the middle of
a three-game stretch in which he has totaled 13.5 fantasy points.
It should be noted that his two finest fantasy efforts came against
the Buccaneers (15.8 in Week 5 and 25.1 in Week 8). Outside of
those performances, Pitts' best game was 13.5 fantasy points against
the Seahawks in Week 7. The 24-year-old has reached double figures
in only two other outings. In short, Week 15 may be the only time
fantasy managers can (or should) start him moving forward.
Overall ranking for most favorable fantasy playoff schedule:
7th
Much as I noted in the quarterback section last week, most of
the best fantasy playoff matchups for D/STs have been wasted on
the units that we have little reason to trust. The Falcons, Bengals,
Colts and Jaguars are the only teams with two highly desirable
matchups in Weeks 15-17. Only the Colts have inspired some confidence
as of late, and it would take a while before I felt confident
about starting them. Thus, streamers or managers without an elite
option may need to get out of their comfort zone a bit to make
things work this postseason.
Cardinals (NE, @CAR, @LAR)
There is no question Arizona improved its stock by annihilating
two teams that have fallen on hard times in the two weeks leading
up to its Week 11 bye (Bears and Jets). However, it is easier
to believe the Cardinals may be on the verge of becoming a stout
fantasy defense based on what they did against the Chargers in
Week 7. Arizona is not a ball-hawking squad by any measure (five
interceptions and six fumble recoveries through 10 games), but
it has become a respectable pass-rushing unit with 13 sacks during
a four-game winning streak. The Cards should be able to collect
three or four sacks while playing mostly in positive game scripts
versus the Patriots (Week 15) and Panthers (Week 16). While Drake Maye has injected life into the Patriots, they still have one
of the worst offensive lines in the NFL. Although Carolina has
done a great job of not taking many sacks this year (18), the
Panthers have struggled to score more than 20 points all season.
Last but not least, one of Arizona's best defensive performances
of the season came in Week 2 against the Rams (Week 17).
Buccaneers (@LAC, @DAL,
CAR)
This one is not for the faint of heart. Tampa Bay has been awful
against the pass for most of the season (and is unlikely to get
much better) and only about average at stopping the run. Much
like the Cardinals, however, Tampa Bay can score points and put
an opponent in negative game script. Unlike the Cardinals, the
Bucs like to blitz and force the action. That kind of aggressiveness
can pay off big or backfire, but the odds of it doing the latter
obviously go down when the opponent is challenged offensively
- as is the case right now with Dallas (Week 16) and Carolina
(Week 17). The Chargers are a bad matchup in many ways for the
Buccaneers, so the few fantasy managers who want to "trust
the matchup" with their defense/special teams during the
fantasy playoffs will want to look for another option in Week
15 (perhaps the Cardinals?) before riding with the Bucs the rest
of the way.
"Obvious" defense/special teams with favorable
schedules who should be starting most weeks: Vikings
(6th), Broncos (12th)
Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and joined the
Fantasy Points website before the start of the 2024 season. He is
also a highly successful high-stakes player who often appears as
a guest analyst on Sirius XM. Doug is also a member of the Fantasy
Sports Writers Association. Please check out his new podcast with
JJ Wenner called "The All-Out Blitz."
