A large part of my success in 20-plus years in this industry - and
specifically in the 18 years I have utilized Preseason Matchup Analysis
- can be attributed to preparing for the playoffs before the season
begins. Do I put a lot of weight into matchups in July and August?
No, but I do account for them. That is an important distinction.
If it does nothing else, it helps to break ties. There is no question
in my mind that I have avoided a lot more "bust players"
over the years than the average analyst/fantasy player because of
it.
While I do not expect the majority of readers to go to the same
lengths that I do, the most savvy managers tend to use the time
leading up to Thanksgiving as an opportunity to prepare for the
postseason. It behooves managers to consider now what matchups
we want to target in December. (I guarantee league-mates in most
competitive leagues have already started doing this or are about
to do so.) Lining up key handcuffs and great matchups now allows
us to save on FAAB for more important expenditures, such as when
a manager is forced to drop a key player during the Week 14 bye-week
crunch.
The focus of this week will be targeting quarterbacks and running
backs with the best fantasy playoff matchups. (I plan to give
the same treatment to wide receivers, tight ends, kickers and
defense/special teams units next week.)
Most of the reason for doing this - as opposed to a week or so
before Week 15 - is because it leaves fantasy managers some time
to acquire the assets via trade or off the waiver wire. I will
mention the elite options when applicable, but the point of this
piece is to explain why the more "available" players
could be almost as valuable - if not more so.
I understand the majority of the players below are already on
rosters, but the bulk of them can be had a slight discount for
one reason or another via trade.
Note: Opponents highlighted in green represent what should
be favorable matchups. Opponents highlighted in red represent
what should be unfavorable matchups.
Quarterbacks
Let's begin with the defenses that have been the most favorable
fantasy matchups for quarterbacks:
As luck would have it, quarterback-needy managers will probably
need to acquire a signal-caller via trade because most of the
widely available options now (and likely in a month) did not catch
much of a break from the schedule makers. Why do I say that? Four
of the top five quarterbacks with the most favorable schedules
are Bryce Young (first), Will Levis (second), Derek Carr (fourth)
and Daniel Jones (fifth). As much as I would like to advocate
for any one of them, it would take a dire situation for me to
consider any of them with money on the line even if they somehow
go on a run over the next four weeks.
Of the 12 teams with the softest quarterback schedules during
the fantasy playoffs, here are the most realistic options of the
bunch (in the order I would prefer them rest of season):
The Colts (Week 15) have put a few fingers into their leaky dam
of a defense, but they remain a highly favorable matchup. The
Bengals (Week 17) are probably better than their ranking (as the
fifth-most forgiving defense against quarterbacks) would suggest
because Lamar Jackson is responsible for eight of the 17 passing
scores they have surrendered. With that said, they have given
up enough big games to be considered a favorable matchup as well.
Nix is responsible for the biggest fantasy day the Chargers (Week
16) have allowed to a quarterback in 2024, so it is debatable
if they are even a difficult matchup for him.
Nix has not exactly posted prodigious passing numbers as a rookie
(197 passing yards and one passing touchdown per game). What has
helped him be the overall QB10 to this point is HC Sean Payton's
faith in him near the goal line (or maybe the lack of faith in
the running backs to convert). Nix's four rushing touchdowns are
tied for the third most among quarterbacks. He also ran for at
least 61 yards in two of the six games he failed to rush for a
score, so he has been a bit lucky with the timing of his big runs.
Needless to say, it is a great thing for managers to know it is
better than a 50-50 proposition that their quarterback can score
at least six fantasy points on the ground.
Overall ranking for most favorable fantasy playoff schedule:
8th
The Buccaneers (Week 15) are the most favorable matchup for quarterbacks
this season, so fantasy teams looking for a potential eruption
spot in the first round of the fantasy playoffs from a player
can probably end their search here. Denver (Week 16) and New England
(Week 17) both rank among the six stingiest matchups for quarterbacks,
but the Patriots feel more like a "fake" tough pass
defense given the lack of elite signal-callers they have faced.
They can be had through the air, although it is notable that the
Chargers will be playing in chilly New England and not in the
cozy confines of Sofi Stadium.
The great part about Herbert is that he is a former elite option
who is available in many leagues due in part to the perception
that all OC Greg Roman knows how to do is call running plays and
the belief he lacks weapons at receiver. After starting the season
slow - likely because he was recovering from foot and ankle injuries
- Herbert has been the overall QB5 over the last three weeks.
Some of that is a product of the quality of the opponent (Saints
in Week 8 and Browns in Week 9), but a QB1-level effort on only
18 pass attempts in Week 10 against an underrated Titans should
have served as a wakeup-call for prospecting managers. Herbert
is taking care of the ball better than he ever has (no interceptions
since Week 2 and a 1.2 percent turnover-worthy throw rate, per
the Fantasy Points Data Suite). He is also running as much as
he has in a while, as he has rushed for 83 yards and a touchdown
since Week 7. (His nine rush attempts in Week 10 were tied for
the second most in a game in his career).
Overall ranking for most favorable fantasy playoff schedule:
11th
As I alluded to earlier, the Bengals (Week 16) are probably slightly
better against quarterbacks than their numbers would indicate,
but they are still a good matchup to target in fantasy. The same
cannot be said for the Chiefs (Week 15) and Dolphins (Week 17).
There is not much that needs to be said about Winston that has
not already been said. He has attempted at least 41 passes in
both of his starts and will probably hit that number a time or
two during the fantasy postseason. As is usually the case with
him, he could easily throw for three touchdowns or three interceptions
(and sometimes do both in the same game.) Winston's greatest purpose
this season may not be what he does for his managers during the
fantasy playoffs, but rather what his presence means for David Njoku and Cedric Tillman.
Overall ranking for most favorable fantasy playoff schedule:
6th
Baker Mayfield waxed the Eagles (Week 15) for three touchdowns
and almost 30 fantasy points in Week 4. Outside of that, Philadelphia
has yielded nine total touchdowns to the position over its other
nine contests (including its Week 11 win over Washington). The
Ravens (Week 16) are the AFC's answer to the Buccaneers against
passers, allowing an average of 295 passing yards and 2.9 total
touchdowns to the position. The Chiefs (Week 17) have been slightly
more forgiving than the Eagles, surrendering two total touchdowns
to quarterbacks in five straight. With that said, no quarterback
has passed for more than 215 yards against Kansas City since Joe Burrow in Week 2.
Since Wilson was named the starting quarterback before Week 7,
he has completed only 58.8 percent of his passes and run for just
13 yards. Based on that information alone, he should not be having
the success he is. Two of the reasons he is a fantasy asset are
that 17.4 percent of his passes travel 20-plus yards and his completion
rate on those throws is 53.3 percent. The latter number is the
best in the league for any quarterback who has started one game,
while the former number trails only Anthony Richardson (21.1)
among regular starters. While this suggests Wilson could be prone
to huge variance, his biggest X-factor is having two very good
vertical receivers in George Pickens and Mike Williams.
Overall ranking for most favorable fantasy playoff schedule:
3rd
Other quarterbacks with favorable schedules who should
be starting most weeks:Baker
Mayfield (12th)
Running Backs
Since all starting running backs and most of their direct backups
are on fantasy rosters in most leagues (and have been for some
time), almost every player below will need to be acquired via
trade.
Once again, let's highlight the defenses that have been the most
favorable fantasy matchups for running backs:
Of the 12 teams with the softest running back schedules during
the fantasy playoffs, here are the most realistic options of the
bunch (in the order I would prefer them rest of season):
Conner will not come cheap in a trade, but chances are he can
be had. By now, fantasy managers know the deal with him: he will
miss at least four games due to injury at some point. Most of
his fantasy managers treat this as a guarantee and do not want
to be caught holding the bag when it happens again. That alone
can make him a bargain. If his durability issues are not scaring
prospective buyers off, then the increased usage rookie Trey Benson
is seeing lately might.
Conner is surprisingly having his worst fantasy season since
he signed with Arizona in 2021, averaging 14.8 points per game.
With that said, he has only had one clunker despite facing his
fair share of solid run defenses. It is part of what makes him
such an attractive asset moving forward, as the Patriots (ninth),
Panthers (first) and Rams (20th) are about as nice of a stretch
as any manager could ask for from a high-volume back during the
fantasy playoffs. New England lacks the firepower to hang with
the Cardinals, so volume should not be a problem in that game.
Carolina has already surrendered six 20-point fantasy games to
running backs and allowed at least 12.6 points to one back every
game. Los Angeles is easily the toughest matchup of the bunch
and has improved as the season has progressed. However, Conner
bullied his way to 122 yards and a touchdown earlier this season
against the Rams during Arizona's 41-10 victory in the team's
first matchup.
Overall ranking for most favorable fantasy playoff schedule:
3rd
HC Dave Canales' plan for his backfield after the team's Week
11 bye could easily decide the fate of more leagues than anyone
else in this piece. The Cowboys (fifth), Cardinals (eighth) and
Bucs (sixth) all rank in the top quarter of best matchups for
running backs. The only potential hiccup over that stretch could
be against Arizona, which could easily suffocate the Panthers'
ground game by going ground-and-pound on Carolina's dreadful rush
defense. The good news in that circumstance is that Hubbard and
Brooks are both very capable receivers, so they could make up
for a lack of volume with their work in the passing game.
The question fantasy managers will need an answer to (and probably
will not get before their league's trade deadline) is if Canales
continues to stay with Hubbard as the lead back or if Brooks slowly
transitions into that role over the next month. Such a question
would have been laughable two months ago, but the Panthers' recent
decision to give Hubbard a rich contract extension suggests Carolina
wants the two backs to split work for the foreseeable future.
Will that happen over the remainder of the season? That is the
million-dollar question.
It seems more likely than not that Hubbard will continue to operate
as the lead back, if only because it makes little sense to give
Brooks a heavy workload during a meaningless season. The most
unlikely outcome is that Hubbard continues to operate in the same
workhorse role he handled over the first 10 weeks. He will lose
touches, but I think Canales will continue to lean more heavily
on Hubbard until Brooks makes it obvious why he should be the
man. Making a play for Hubbard at your league's trade deadline
is a huge risk, but I believe it is one worth taking. Hubbard
will come cheaper than Conner but could have just as much upside.
Overall ranking for most favorable fantasy playoff schedule:
7th
It might be hyperbolic to say that Irving or White will decide
fantasy titles, but at least one of them will find themselves
on many championship rosters. Assuming their fantasy managers
get a first-round bye or survive their first-round matchup against
the stingy Chargers defense (third-toughest matchup for running
backs), Tampa Bay finishes the fantasy regular season with games
against the Cowboys (fifth-easiest) and Panthers (easiest). Carolina,
in particular, has been abysmal against running backs, yielding
an average of 30 fantasy points to the position. Nine running
backs have posted at least 17.4 fantasy points versus the Panthers.
White has been the overall RB7 since Week 6, but it is hard to
say he has been dominant or that his production is sustainable
(30 of his 78.3 fantasy points over the last four weeks have come
via touchdowns). Considering Dallas and Carolina are unlikely
to put up much of a fight offensively, the expectation for this
backfield in those weeks should be a heavier lean on the run.
During White's "hot" streak, Irving holds a 38-29 edge
in carries, which suggests the rookie should be the better fantasy
option down the stretch since the Bucs should be playing with
a lead more often than not. With that said, the duo is sharing
the work so evenly that both players could end up being league-winning
types. This schedule is so favorable that if Irving or White gets
hurt over the next month, Sean Tucker could become a league-winner
himself.
Overall ranking for most favorable fantasy playoff schedule:
4th
The Cowboys could be so bad moving forward that even a favorable
schedule will not be enough to make Dowdle any more relevant than
he has been to this point. With that said, volume can cure many
ills at running back. If we can take HC Mike McCarthy at his word,
it now sounds like Dowdle will handle
as much work as possible. The unfortunate part for his fantasy
managers is that the Cowboys have a rough month of running back
matchups ahead, which may be enough to create doubt that he can
take advantage of the soft matchups that await him when the fantasy
playoffs begin.
With that said, the Panthers' run defense issues are so significant
that Dowdle should be a solid RB2 in Week 15. After that, things
get dicey. The Bucs (Week 16) could put the Cowboys in negative
game script quickly enough that Dowdle will have to be heavily
involved in the passing game to enjoy a decent performance. As
Week 10 proved, the Eagles (Week 17) are so far ahead of Dallas
that any thought of Dowdle being an important part of a fantasy
championship run might be wishful thinking.
Overall ranking for most favorable fantasy playoff schedule:
11th
Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and joined the
Fantasy Points website before the start of the 2024 season. He is
also a highly successful high-stakes player who often appears as
a guest analyst on Sirius XM. Doug is also a member of the Fantasy
Sports Writers Association. Please check out his new podcast with
JJ Wenner called "The All-Out Blitz."
