We’re at the mid-point of the season, but like the groundhog
who sees his shadow, there are still six more weeks of byes before
we can begin the playoff run to the championship.
Byes: Detroit, Seattle, Tampa Bay, Washington
“The truth is more important than the facts.”
– Frank Lloyd Wright
1) Over the past three games, Patrick Mahomes has not been a
Unfortunately true. Since Week 6 he’s averaged 21.2 FPts/G,
leaving him ranked 17th, behind the likes of Carson Wentz (22.6),
Ryan Tannehill (23.0) and Mike White (23.1). Also, you can’t
blame it on a hard schedule – he faced Washington, Tennessee
and the New York Giants during this span. He’s struggling
against the two-deep zone which hasn’t allowed him to take
advantage of the deep strike capability of Tyreek Hill and the
other Chiefs’ speedsters. Don’t panic, Andy Reid will
eventually figure it out, but it may take a few games of running
the football to bring the safeties closer to the line of scrimmage.
In the meantime, you may actually have to consider if your backup
has a better matchup. Yes, I know, that’s sacrilege.
2) The league’s leading running back since Week 6 is the Jets’
Fact. His 25.3 FPts/G over two games (Week 6 bye) has him just
ahead of Alvin Kamara and two points-per-game ahead of Jonathon Taylor. Your job, as fantasy owner, is to determine if he can
keep up this pace since he was only started in 42% of all leagues
last weekend (rostered in 68%). His immediate future has him facing
two of the top-3 RB defenses (Indy, Buffalo), so beware of overvaluing,
but he’ll have at least four favorable matchups later in
3) The following fantasy quarterbacks are all living outside
the top-12: Kirk Cousins, Aaron Rodgers, Ryan Tannehill, Carson
Wentz, Matt Ryan and Baker Mayfield.
4) With Henry Ruggs III unavailable, Bryan Edwards should be
a primary beneficiary.
Probably true. If Darren Waller, Hunter Renfrow and Edwards all
share in his approximately six targets per game, Edwards’
production should rise from 8.4 FPts/G to 12.3 FPts/G. That would
make Edwards a low-end WR3. But Ruggs was the Raiders’ deep
threat and Edwards’ speed compared to Renfrow and Waller
should mean he’ll get even more than an even split of those
5) I only buy Halloween candy I like so that I can enjoy all
True. I’m “old school” so that means Three
Musketeers, Milky Way and Reese’s. What’s your favorite?
“A liar begins with making falsehood appear like truth,
and ends with making truth itself appear like falsehood.”
– William Shenstone
1) If you have four touchdown receptions or more, you’re
at least a WR3.
Almost true, but with one exception – the Packers’
Randall Cobb. Cobb and his four touchdowns rank just 75th averaging
8.6 FPts/G. He’s caught just 17 balls for 194 yards all
season, but Aaron Rodgers’ personal pick from the off-season
acquisitions is made viable by his touchdowns. Cobb ranks 32nd
since Week 4 averaging 12.7 FPts/G.
2) DeVonta Smith is the most disappointing receiver with 50
targets or more through Week 8.
Close, but wrong. No. 1 on the “I’ve had plenty of
opportunity, but can’t produce tour” is Robby Anderson,
who on 50 targets has produced just 6.3 FPts/G. Darnell Mooney
and Smith are tied for second at 10.1 FPts/G. By contrast, the
35 receivers with 50 or more targets average 15.9 FPts/G. Targets
usually equal production so if you see a trend toward a different
receiver, follow it.
3) Travis Kelce only ranks eighth among fantasy tight ends over
the last three weeks so its panic time.
Oh my, the sky is falling. Patience people. Monday night was
his first single-figure production since Week 4 and just his second
all season. Kelce is a little nicked up with neck, wrist and arm
injuries, but trying to play through them. Unfortunately, the
Chiefs’ bye isn’t until Week 12, because Kelce really,
really needs the week off. You have no options here, but to keep
playing him in season-long until he’s healthy again, which
hopefully will be by the fantasy playoffs. DFS players can probably
find better bargains.
4) Many “experts” continue to say that drafting Saquon Barkley
was a mistake to draft at No. 2 in 2018 instead of a quarterback.
False. Let’s look at the top-2 quarterbacks drafted that season
– Baker Mayfield, Sam
Darnold. Neither has yet to throw more than 27 touchdowns
in a season and Darnold is already struggling on his second team.
Yes, both Josh
Allen and Lamar
Jackson were selected later in the first round that year,
but neither was being thought of as a top-3 pick because Allen
was a “project” and Jackson was thought (incorrectly) to be more
runner than quarterback. Of the top three picks Barkley is the
only one to play in a Pro Bowl.
5) Keep the faith on Washington running back Antonio Gibson.
Sorry no, not this year. I’m afraid his leg issue may keep
him from being the “star in the making” we saw in
2020. He’s scored 20 points or more four times in 22 career
games, but just once in the last 12. Is it possible the Thanksgiving
game in Dallas when he scored three times and racked up 36.6 fantasy
points will be the pinnacle of his career? Since that game, backup
J.D. McKissic has more 20-point games (3).