We said goodbye to the GOAT, Tom Brady, for the year… or
maybe forever (TBD), but the NFL must be dancing in their offices
after seeing the four matchups for the Divisional round of this
season’s playoffs.
Here is what we will all be lucky enough to watch this weekend;
1) A mentor-student matchup of Super Bowl winners.
2) A classic clash between two long-time division rivals.
3) A resumption of what might have been the best game of the
year had it not been interrupted by a “tragedy turned feel
good story of the year.”
4) A rematch from a year ago between two of the most successful
all-time franchises who have both been struggling to find their
“old magic” for a long time.
Jacksonville @ Kansas City
Saturday afternoon’s kickoff to the weekend is Andy Reid’s
top-ranked Kansas City Chiefs facing off against his protégé
Doug Pederson and the Jacksonville Jaguars. It’s the best
quarterback in the league (yes, that’s Patrick Mahomes)
vs. a No.1 overall draft pick (Trevor Lawrence a.k.a. Sunshine
from Remember the Titans) just starting to blossom. It’s
a Chiefs team which is a league-best 14-3 and winners of the last
five games versus a Jacksonville squad which is winners of six
straight. It’s a warm-weather team heading to Kansas City
in mid-January where average high temperature for the day is 39
degrees. It’s where a well-rested juggernaut offense faces
a team off an emotionally-draining comeback from a 27-0 deficit.
They played in mid-November and Kansas City won handily 27-17,
but it wasn’t that close. The Chiefs led 20-0 late in the
second quarter. Mahomes threw for 331 yards and four touchdowns
to four different receivers (Travis Kelce, Kadarius Toney, Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Noah Gray).
Reid has faced former assistants 24 times in his career going
16-8 against them in the regular season and a perfect 3-0 in the
playoffs. As a 7.5-point favorite (-450 ML), he’s likely
to stay perfect in the post-season.
New York Giants @ Philadelphia
The Giants come off a mild upset of the overrated Minnesota Vikings
behind the quarterbacking of Daniel Jones. It was likely the best
game he’s ever played – throwing for 301 yards and
two scores and rushing for 78 yards. More importantly, he held
on to the ball – no turnovers. He’s much improved
from the 2019 version of Jones, who turned the ball over far too
many times (19 fumbles, 12 interceptions). In 2022 Jones has turned
the ball over just eight times. Of course his Wildcard Weekend
numbers were against a Vikings’ pass defense which ranked
31st in the NFL allowing 4,515 passing yards in 2022. Only Tennessee
allowed more. He’ll be facing an Eagles’ pass defense
led by Darius Slay and former Giants CB James Bradberry, who allowed
the fewest passing yards in the league (3,057) and sacked opposing
quarterbacks a league-leading 70 times.
Meanwhile, the Eagles were 14-1 with Jalen Hurts under center
and 0-2 without him. He looked unimpressive in his return from
a shoulder injury in Week 18 against these same Giants. If that
was because his shoulder is still a problem and he isn’t
going to use the run portion of an RPO then this game could be
close. If he’s ready to roll then a repeat of the 48-22
first game between these two teams is possible. The expected return
of RT Lane Johnson (abdominal tear) is also significant. Over
Johnson’s 10 seasons in Philadelphia, the Eagles are 72-44-1
(.620) when he plays, and just 13-21 (.382) without him in the
lineup. He hasn’t given up a sack over the past two season.
Through the 2022 Wildcard Weekend the team that accomplished
a sweep during the regular season has a record of 23-13 (63.9%)
in a playoff game. When playing at home, the team that swept that
opponent has a record of 20-8 (71.4%).
Cincinnati @ Buffalo
This is a resumption of a Week 17 matchup interrupted by the
horrible injury to CB Damar Hamlin. What could have been tragic,
turned into a great story, after the quick work from on the field
trainers and medical staff and the doctors and nurses at the University
Cincinnati Medical Center.
It features a team on the quietest nine-game win streak in the
league (Cincinnati) versus a team on an eight-game win streak
(Buffalo). The Bills own the No.2 offense in the league (28.4
ppg) and the No.2 defense allowing just 17.9 ppg. The Bengals
are no slouches, being top-seven in offense (26.1) and sixth in
defense (20.1). It will feature two of the best young quarterbacks
in the league – Josh
Allen and Joe
Burrow. And two of the league’s best receivers in Stefon
Diggs and Ja’Marr
Chase.
For me, what will decide this game is the health and ability
of the Bengals’ offensive line to hold up under the pressure
from the Buffalo defense (40 sacks, 27 turnovers). Of importance
is how the Bengals replace the latest blow to the OL - LT Jonah Williams (dislocated kneecap). He is the third starter missing
from opening day (La’el Collins, Alex Cappa). Against Baltimore,
Cincinnati was forced to throw shorter passes due to lack of time,
taking away a big portion of the passing game – long passes
to Chase and Tee Higgins.
For Buffalo, their best player is also their biggest question
mark. Josh Allen
(league-leading 29.5 FPts/G) can make the best of plays and the
worst of plays. Allen threw for 4,283 yards and 35 touchdowns
and rushed for 762 yards and seven scores. He’s also thrown 14
interceptions and fumbled 13 times. He’s thrown five picks and
fumbled four times in the last three games. If Allen can just
be Allen and not try to be Superman, the Bills should move on.
Dallas @ San Francisco
The final matchup of the weekend is a battle between two once-great
franchises. Dallas has won a Super Bowl five times (as any crazed
Cowboys’ fan will be sure to tell you), but unless that
fan is at least 30-years old they probably don’t remember
any of them. Their last Lombardi Trophy came in 1996 – Super
Bowl 30… we are coming up on Super Bowl 57. San Francisco
also owns five Super Bowl wins, but their last win was in January
1995. At least the 49ers have reached the Super Bowl game twice
recently, losing to Baltimore and Kansas City.
Dallas has won just four playoff games since 2000, including
Monday night’s blowout of Tampa Bay. They have plenty of
talent on both sides of the ball, but never seem to be able to
put it together in big games. Since coming into the league, Dak Prescott is 42-12 against teams with losing records but just 19-24
against winning teams.
The Niners are certainly a winning team. They are No.1 in defensive
points allowed (16.3) and No.6 on offense averaging 26.5 ppg.
They have been even stronger since rookie Brock Purdy started
a game. They are averaging 34.6 ppg since Week 13. Not all of
that is the quarterback, but he’s been solid in his role
as “point guard” distributing the ball to talented
Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle, Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk
as needed. He’s thrown multiple touchdowns in all seven
starts against just three interceptions. If the Cowboys pass rush
can’t get in his face and disrupt his timing (54 sacks),
the 49ers will be headed to the NFC championship round.
This should be a great round for fans and the few fantasy owners
who are left still playing (yes, I have a league which goes all
the way to the Super Bowl). Make sure you have all the food and
beer close at hand, because you probably don’t want to miss
a single play of this Divisional Round.