It’s the devaluing of the running back. Teams have decided,
not to pay their running backs, like they do quarterbacks, or
receivers or defensive ends. In fact, almost every other group
seems to be reaching big deals around the league… except
for running backs.
But just because owners and general managers are going with a
“no high-paid running back” policy, should fantasy
owners?
Should you prioritize wide receivers, tight ends and quarterbacks
over running backs?
Let’s look at our options if we devalue running backs and
prioritize the other positions. (We have also thrown in putting
RBs just in front of your QB selection, but still devalued). The
results are from an ADP in early July and we chose the player
closest to the ADP (but not better than) whether we actually liked
the guy or not.
The first box shows an owner with the first draft pick of a snake
draft. With running backs devalued, he could choose either the
best receiver (Justin Jefferson) or the best tight end (Travis Kelce). The best total here resulted from going wide receiver,
wide receiver, quarterback, tight end and then two running backs.
It resulted in a total of 1535.9 fantasy points over the season.
The second box is an owner drafting from the sixth position,
right in the middle of the draft. Again, going wide receiver,
wide receiver, quarterback, tight end and then two running backs
resulted in the top total of 1554.7 points.
In the third box, the owner drafted last in the first round,
but managed to stay close with wide receiver, wide receiver, tight
end, quarterback, running back and running back (1551.5 points).
Selecting 1st in a 12-team snake
draft
Pos
Pick #1
Pick #24
Pick #25
Pick #48
Pick #49
Pick #72
Total **
WWTQRR
J. Jefferson
J. Waddle
Hockenson
J. Burrow
JK Dobbins
AJ Dillon
1519.3
WTWQRR
J. Jefferson
Hockenson
J. Waddle
J. Burrow
JK Dobbins
AJ Dillon
1519.3
TWWQRR
T. Kelce
J. Waddle
T. Higgins
J. Burrow
JK Dobbins
AJ Dillon
1481.5
WWQTRR
J. Jefferson
J. Waddle
P. Mahomes
G. Kittle
JK Dobbins
AJ Dillon
1535.9
WTQWRR
J. Jefferson
Hockenson
P. Mahomes
DJ Moore
JK Dobbins
AJ Dillon
1535.0
TWQWRR
T. Kelce
J. Waddle
P. Mahomes
DJ Moore
JK Dobbins
AJ Dillon
1518.7
WWTRRQ
J. Jefferson
J. Waddle
Hockenson
Jav. Williams
JK Dobbins
J. Fields
1446.2
WTWRRQ
J. Jefferson
Hockenson
J. Waddle
Jav. Williams
JK Dobbins
J. Fields
1446.2
TWWRRQ
T. Kelce
J. Waddle
T. Higgins
Jav. Williams
JK Dobbins
J. Fields
1408.4
Selecting 6th in a 12-team snake
draft
Pos
Pick #6
Pick #19
Pick #30
Pick #43
Pick #54
Pick #67
Total **
WWTQRR
C. Kupp
A. St. Brown
Hockenson
J. Burrow
A. Mattison
I Pacheco
1540.6
WTWQRR
C. Kupp
M. Andrews
D. Samuel
J. Burrow
A. Mattison
I Pacheco
1495.0
TWWQRR
M. Andrews
A. St. Brown
D. Samuel
J. Burrow
A. Mattison
I Pacheco
1453.9
WWQTRR
C. Kupp
A. St. Brown
J. Allen
G. Kittle
A. Mattison
I Pacheco
1554.7
WTQWRR
C. Kupp
M. Andrews
J. Allen
C. Olave
A. Mattison
I Pacheco
1539.1
TWQWRR
M. Andrews
A. St. Brown
J. Allen
C. Olave
A. Mattison
I Pacheco
1498.0
WWTRRQ
C. Kupp
A. St. Brown
Hockenson
J. Conner
A. Mattison
J. Herbert
1549.2
WTWRRQ
C. Kupp
M. Andrews
D. Samuel
J. Conner
A. Mattison
J. Herbert
1503.6
TWWRRQ
M. Andrews
A. St. Brown
D. Samuel
J. Conner
A. Mattison
J. Herbert
1462.5
Selecting 12th in a 12-team snake
draft
Pos
Pick #12
Pick #13
Pick #36
Pick #37
Pick #60
Pick #61
Total **
WWTQRR
S. Diggs
AJ Brown
Hockenson
J. Hurts
M. Sanders
R. White*
1551.5
WTWQRR
S. Diggs
M. Andrews
G. Wilson
J. Hurts
M. Sanders
R. White*
1525.5
TWWQRR
M. Andrews
S. Diggs
G. Wilson
J. Hurts
M. Sanders
R. White*
1525.5
WWQTRR
S. Diggs
AJ Brown
J. Hurts
G. Kittle
M. Sanders
R. White*
1519.2
WTQWRR
S. Diggs
M. Andrews
J. Hurts
K. Allen
M. Sanders
R. White*
1520.1
TWQWRR
M. Andrews
S. Diggs
J. Hurts
K. Allen
M. Sanders
R. White*
1520.1
WWTRRQ
S. Diggs
AJ Brown
Hockenson
Montgomery
R. White*
L. Jackson
1497.0
WTWRRQ
S. Diggs
M. Andrews
G. Wilson
Montgomery
R. White*
L. Jackson
1471.0
TWWRRQ
M. Andrews
S. Diggs
G. Wilson
Montgomery
R. White*
L. Jackson
1471.0
* - Alvin
Kamara was actually ranked at No.61, but we expect him to
be suspended for a significant portion of the season.
** - Based on FFToday projections.
In the final box below, we drafted the best player available
based on expected production from the FFToday projections.
We found by using two value picks in Detroit rookie running back
Jahmyr Gibbs (No.84) and Denver wideout Jerry Jeudy (No.71) we
can produce a significantly better total of 1631.7 fantasy points
from the first position. But contrary to GMs everywhere, it means
drafting Christian McCaffrey No.1 overall. Devaluing running backs
be damned!
Even if we substitute Gibbs (210 fantasy points) for one of the
currently drafted running backs (AJ Dillon, Isiah Pacheco, Rachaad White or David Montgomery) in the “delayed running back”
strategy, it doesn’t get close to this total with McCaffrey
as the first pick.
From the middle of the draft, we found a start of running back,
running back (a.k.a. Old School drafting) resulted in 1610 fantasy
points. Again, much higher than any of the devalued running back
strategies produced.
From the last position we can still produce more points by drafting
a running back early than those drafting first and delaying running
back selection.
Three better options based on best
available according to FFToday expected production