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GMs Are Discounting Running Back Values... Should You?



By Steve Schwarz | 7/20/23

Saquon Barkley

Since the end of last season, Dalvin Cook, Ezekiel Elliott, Leonard Fournette were cut. Aaron Jones and Joe Mixon took pay cuts. Saquon Barkley and Josh Jacobs were franchised, but are unhappy and have yet to sign their deals. And Kareem Hunt doesn’t seem to be on anyone’s “To Do List.” So what is going on here?

It’s the devaluing of the running back. Teams have decided, not to pay their running backs, like they do quarterbacks, or receivers or defensive ends. In fact, almost every other group seems to be reaching big deals around the league… except for running backs.

But just because owners and general managers are going with a “no high-paid running back” policy, should fantasy owners?

Should you prioritize wide receivers, tight ends and quarterbacks over running backs?

Let’s look at our options if we devalue running backs and prioritize the other positions. (We have also thrown in putting RBs just in front of your QB selection, but still devalued). The results are from an ADP in early July and we chose the player closest to the ADP (but not better than) whether we actually liked the guy or not.

The first box shows an owner with the first draft pick of a snake draft. With running backs devalued, he could choose either the best receiver (Justin Jefferson) or the best tight end (Travis Kelce). The best total here resulted from going wide receiver, wide receiver, quarterback, tight end and then two running backs. It resulted in a total of 1535.9 fantasy points over the season.

The second box is an owner drafting from the sixth position, right in the middle of the draft. Again, going wide receiver, wide receiver, quarterback, tight end and then two running backs resulted in the top total of 1554.7 points.

In the third box, the owner drafted last in the first round, but managed to stay close with wide receiver, wide receiver, tight end, quarterback, running back and running back (1551.5 points).

 Selecting 1st in a 12-team snake draft
Pos Pick #1 Pick #24 Pick #25 Pick #48 Pick #49 Pick #72 Total **
WWTQRR J. Jefferson J. Waddle Hockenson J. Burrow JK Dobbins AJ Dillon 1519.3
WTWQRR J. Jefferson Hockenson J. Waddle J. Burrow JK Dobbins AJ Dillon 1519.3
TWWQRR T. Kelce J. Waddle T. Higgins J. Burrow JK Dobbins AJ Dillon 1481.5
WWQTRR J. Jefferson J. Waddle P. Mahomes G. Kittle JK Dobbins AJ Dillon 1535.9
WTQWRR J. Jefferson Hockenson P. Mahomes DJ Moore JK Dobbins AJ Dillon 1535.0
TWQWRR T. Kelce J. Waddle P. Mahomes DJ Moore JK Dobbins AJ Dillon 1518.7
WWTRRQ J. Jefferson J. Waddle Hockenson Jav. Williams JK Dobbins J. Fields 1446.2
WTWRRQ J. Jefferson Hockenson J. Waddle Jav. Williams JK Dobbins J. Fields 1446.2
TWWRRQ T. Kelce J. Waddle T. Higgins Jav. Williams JK Dobbins J. Fields 1408.4

 Selecting 6th in a 12-team snake draft
Pos Pick #6 Pick #19 Pick #30 Pick #43 Pick #54 Pick #67 Total **
WWTQRR C. Kupp A. St. Brown Hockenson J. Burrow A. Mattison I Pacheco 1540.6
WTWQRR C. Kupp M. Andrews D. Samuel J. Burrow A. Mattison I Pacheco 1495.0
TWWQRR M. Andrews A. St. Brown D. Samuel J. Burrow A. Mattison I Pacheco 1453.9
WWQTRR C. Kupp A. St. Brown J. Allen G. Kittle A. Mattison I Pacheco 1554.7
WTQWRR C. Kupp M. Andrews J. Allen C. Olave A. Mattison I Pacheco 1539.1
TWQWRR M. Andrews A. St. Brown J. Allen C. Olave A. Mattison I Pacheco 1498.0
WWTRRQ C. Kupp A. St. Brown Hockenson J. Conner A. Mattison J. Herbert 1549.2
WTWRRQ C. Kupp M. Andrews D. Samuel J. Conner A. Mattison J. Herbert 1503.6
TWWRRQ M. Andrews A. St. Brown D. Samuel J. Conner A. Mattison J. Herbert 1462.5

 Selecting 12th in a 12-team snake draft
Pos Pick #12 Pick #13 Pick #36 Pick #37 Pick #60 Pick #61 Total **
WWTQRR S. Diggs AJ Brown Hockenson J. Hurts M. Sanders R. White* 1551.5
WTWQRR S. Diggs M. Andrews G. Wilson J. Hurts M. Sanders R. White* 1525.5
TWWQRR M. Andrews S. Diggs G. Wilson J. Hurts M. Sanders R. White* 1525.5
WWQTRR S. Diggs AJ Brown J. Hurts G. Kittle M. Sanders R. White* 1519.2
WTQWRR S. Diggs M. Andrews J. Hurts K. Allen M. Sanders R. White* 1520.1
TWQWRR M. Andrews S. Diggs J. Hurts K. Allen M. Sanders R. White* 1520.1
WWTRRQ S. Diggs AJ Brown Hockenson Montgomery R. White* L. Jackson 1497.0
WTWRRQ S. Diggs M. Andrews G. Wilson Montgomery R. White* L. Jackson 1471.0
TWWRRQ M. Andrews S. Diggs G. Wilson Montgomery R. White* L. Jackson 1471.0

* - Alvin Kamara was actually ranked at No.61, but we expect him to be suspended for a significant portion of the season.
** - Based on FFToday projections.

In the final box below, we drafted the best player available based on expected production from the FFToday projections.

We found by using two value picks in Detroit rookie running back Jahmyr Gibbs (No.84) and Denver wideout Jerry Jeudy (No.71) we can produce a significantly better total of 1631.7 fantasy points from the first position. But contrary to GMs everywhere, it means drafting Christian McCaffrey No.1 overall. Devaluing running backs be damned!

Even if we substitute Gibbs (210 fantasy points) for one of the currently drafted running backs (AJ Dillon, Isiah Pacheco, Rachaad White or David Montgomery) in the “delayed running back” strategy, it doesn’t get close to this total with McCaffrey as the first pick.

From the middle of the draft, we found a start of running back, running back (a.k.a. Old School drafting) resulted in 1610 fantasy points. Again, much higher than any of the devalued running back strategies produced.

From the last position we can still produce more points by drafting a running back early than those drafting first and delaying running back selection.

 Three better options based on best available according to FFToday expected production
Pos Pick #1 Pick #24 Pick #25 Pick #48 Pick #49 Pick #72 Total **
RWQRTW C. McCaffrey J. Waddle P. Mahomes J. Gibbs G. Kittle J. Jeudy 1631.7
Pos Pick #6 Pick #19 Pick #30 Pick #43 Pick #54 Pick #67 Total **
RRQWWT J. Jacobs T. Pollard J. Allen A. Cooper J. Jeudy D. Waller 1610.0
Pos Pick #12 Pick #13 Pick #36 Pick #37 Pick #60 Pick #61 Total **
RWTWRQ J. Jacobs S. Diggs Hockenson A. Cooper J. Gibbs L. Jackson 1586.4