Week 3 was quite a display from the 70-point performance of the
Miami Dolphins to the dismantling of the previously undefeated;
Cowboys, Falcons, Commanders and Buccaneers. It’s also time
to prepare for next week when the 2023 “bye season”
“Knowing you have a good backup long snapper
allows you to sleep good at night.” – Bill Belichick
1) If you are panic trading Jalen Hurts you, you don’t
True. Although he is 20th in passing yards (just 640 passing
yards) and it hasn’t looked pretty over the first three
games, he’s still ranked sixth in fantasy points-per-game
for quarterbacks with more than one start. He’s rushed for
three touchdowns in three games this season and 26 touchdowns
in his last 33 games. That ground game consistency makes his “floor”
2) The change in offensive philosophy in Minnesota has created
an “elite” QB in Kirk Cousins.
Correct. Cousins ranked 12th the past two seasons, but new head
coach Kevin O’Connell, has the Vikings throwing more and running
less. The result of this change is Cousins leads all quarterbacks
in passing attempts (138), passing yards (1,075), passing touchdowns
(9) and fantasy points-per-game (30.5). It doesn’t hurt to have
spend a 2023 first-round draft choice on Jordan
Addison and having brought in talented tight end T.J.
Hockenson last season.
3) The Broncos may be an ugly 0-3, but Russell Wilson is much
improved from 2022.
Facts. Wilson currently ranks ninth among starters with at least
two starts, which is well ahead of last season when he ranked
20th among those with more than one start. His production is up
four points, from 19.1 FPts/G to 23.1 points, and he’s thrown
for 300 yards or more in two of the three games.
4) Justin Fields… ugh!
He has not taken the “Jalen Hurts” step forward as
was the expectation heading into his third year. Fields has completed
just 58% of his passes, thrown just 88 times which ranks 24th,
and his eight rushing attempts per game isn’t producing
enough to overcome his passing deficiency. The result is that
Fields, along with D.J. Moore (11.3 FPts/G) and Darnell Mooney
(7.7) are nearly unplayable.
5) Welcome back to reality, Puka Nacua.
His target volume (17.5 targets-per-game) and target share (38%)
from the first two weekends was unsustainable. The Bengals put
the clamps on Nacua who was stuck on 4-35-0, until a 37-yard catch
at the two-minute warning made his numbers look respectable. The
return of Cooper Kupp will further erode Nacua’s fantasy
value. Last week was the best time to “sell high,”
but you might still get decent value if you “sell”
before Kupp’s expected Week 5 return.
“Don’t out-dumb yourself now.” – Bill
1) Carolina quarterback Andy Dalton (27.2 fantasy points) is
better than rookie Bryce Young.
Dalton actually had a similar completion percentage to Young’s
over the first two games (58.6% to 59.2%), he just had better
totals in Week 3 because he threw the ball a stunning 58 times
against Seattle. Beware of overvaluing both Dalton, who won’t
be the long-term starter, or wideouts Adam Thielen (11-145-1)
and D.J. Chark (4-86-1). The 0-3 Panthers WILL go back to Young
when healthy (likely Week 5) and the two wide receivers’
fantasy value WILL return to mediocrity.
2) DeAndre Hopkins is worth trading for - based on the “buy”
False. In his 11th season he still has the hands, but he’s
playing in a situation where his volume is already decent (8.3
targets per game), his ankle is sore and his quarterback is mediocre-at-best.
It’s led to his lowest catch percentage since 2017 (56%)
and the lowest “yards-per-target” of his career (6.1).
3) Joe Burrow is having a “throwaway” season.
False. Buying “low” on those fantasy owners who might be ready
to give up on Burrow could be a season-winning move. His value
will never be lower and there is only one way he can go… up. Just
think of the first three games as his preseason, which he missed
due to the calf injury. I was encouraged by the Burrow-to-Ja’Marr
Chase connection Monday night and whatever is happening with
will work itself out.
4) Keep Mostert, he’s on his way to being the best fantasy
running back in the league.
False. Selling high on Mostert might be the better move after
his monster 45.2 fantasy points in Week 3 has him leading the
league at 28.0 FPts/G. Seven touchdowns in three games is unsustainable
and the talent we saw from backup running back Devon Achane was
undeniable (242 combined yards and four touchdowns in two games).
Throw in any kind of workload for Salvon Ahmed and the return
from the IR of Jeff Wilson in Week 5 and Mostert’s value
can only go in one direction… down.
5) The Miami Dolphins are not the fastest team ever.
They would get beat by the record-setting 2012 Jamaican Olympic
4x100 relay team led by Usain Bolt. The Dolphins own the six fastest
“ball carrier” speeds in the league this season and
it’s not just Tyreek Hill, although Hill does own three
of the top speeds. Achane and Mostert also made the list. The
highest non-Dolphin on the list was Aaron Jones in Week 1 and
he pulled a hamstring on that 35-yard touchdown catch and run.