“I’m a football coach. I’m not a doctor.”
– Bill Belichick (Which he stole from the Star Trek episode
where Dr. ‘Bones’ McCoy says “Damn it Jim, I’m
a doctor, not a bricklayer.”) – Bill Belichick
1) Atlanta Falcons head coach Arthur Smith is nuts.
How else do you explain the “most complete running back
to come out of college since Saquon Barkley” Bijan Robinson,
sitting for 59 minutes and 27 seconds before getting one carry
for three yards? Or possibly he is an evil genius who was playing
against Robinson in his local fantasy league. Tyler Allgeier ran
21 times for 59 yards and Cordarrelle Patterson rushed 10 times
for 56 yards, so they didn’t abandon the running game. Keith Smith, fourth on the depth chart from San Jose State, had the
same number of touches as Robinson. The eighth overall pick in
2023 had seen double-digit rushing attempts in every game this
season until Sunday.
Headache? Then he should have been inactive if the illness was
bad enough to not play him. Why did he get into the game in the
final minute, then? Smith gave all of fantasy a headache! Hopefully,
it was a one-time thing and you can start him as always next weekend…
unless Bijan gets traded in Smith’s fantasy league to his
next opponent.
2) Don’t be confused into thinking Tyrod Taylor is better than
Daniel Jones.
Sure, Taylor put up solid numbers in his second start (18-of-29
for 279 yards and two touchdowns), but everyone beats up on the
Washington pass defense. They rank 31st in fantasy points allowed
to opposing quarterbacks (only the Chargers are worse) allowing
25.3 fantasy points per game. They allow an average 263 yards
and two touchdown passes.
If the Jets get cornerbacks Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed back
from concussion protocol (to be determined), neither Giants quarterback
should be started.
3) Tyson Bagent and his arm-wrestling father is a fun story,
but do I want my fantasy week dependent on starting him another
game?
Yes. But not because he produced a huge fantasy total – he did
not. Bagent’s 14.5 fantasy points ranked 21st-best in Week 7.
However, the Bears are scheduled to play the Los Angeles Chargers
in Week 8 and they are allowing a league-worst 29.4 fantasy points
per game. If you have injury issues at the position, or facing
a strong defense like the Ravens, Bills or Chiefs, Bagent could
be a one-week answer.
4) This is the week Kareem Hunt blows up.
Fact. Jerome
Ford is injured. Hunt has seen double-digit work the past
two games and the Browns, who have quarterback issues, will have
to rely on the ground game and their defense. In the two games
P.J. Walker
has started at quarterback, the Browns have used a balanced attack
with running backs rushing 29 times in each game. Backup Pierre
Strong Jr., who in two seasons has never touched the ball
more than eight times in a game, is the only other option and
has not caught a pass all season. Hunt will see 20 rushing attempts
and all the receiving work. This is Hunt’s big game!
5) I’m not spending all my FAAB or trade capital on D’Onta
Foreman.
True. He’s 65% rostered, so in most highly competitive
leagues he won’t be available for pickup, but I’m
also not making a huge effort to get him on my roster. Roschon Johnson is almost through his concussion protocol and should end
up sharing a portion of the workload with Foreman in Week 8, though
most of that work should come from Darrynton Evans’ 15 touches
last weekend. Khalil Herbert should be back around Week 10, so,
at best, Foreman is a three-week replacement. Also, they aren’t
playing Las Vegas again this season.
Lies
“That which has always been accepted by everyone, everywhere,
is almost certain to be false.” – Paul Valery
1) The upward progression of Jonathon Taylor’s workload
is horrible news for those who have relied on Zack Moss.
Bad news yes, but not the complete end to Moss’ fantasy
value. While Taylor’s rushing attempts have progressed from
6-8-18, Moss has still seen 13 and 19 touches the past two games
and averaging double-digit fantasy points. The reason; the Colts
don’t want to put too much pressure on backup quarterback
Gardner Minshew. On the other hand, if I could get something in
trade for Moss, I would do it. He’s too good to not get
any work, but a healthy and motivated Jonathan Taylor is a significantly
better running back.
2) AJ Dillon is a better running back than Aaron Jones.
False. Jones is the better runner and receiver, but for some
reason, Green Bay management isn’t using them that way.
In Week 7, Dillon out-rushed Jones 15 times to eight. Even in
Week 1, the last time both backs were healthy, Dillon saw 13 rushing
attempts to Jones’ nine. Jones’ rushing average has
been better than Dillon’s the past two seasons, yet Dillon
received 49% of the volume. The only thing I can think of is Jones’
big cap hit next season ($17.7 million) and maybe the Packers
plan on moving on from Jones.
3) Trade Jahmyr Gibbs after he put up a big fantasy total (27.6
points).
The logic is that he had a great week, but that whenever David Montgomery returns from his rib injury, Gibbs will return to his
sporadic backup role. But don’t do it… yet. Monty
is likely to sit out one more week with the Lions having a bye
in Week 9 and Detroit faces Las Vegas, the team which just allowed
D’Onta Foreman 33 fantasy points. The Raiders rank 27th
in fantasy points allowed to opposing RBs. Trade Gibbs next Tuesday
(they play Monday night).
4) Calvin Ridley will round back into the form which he started
the season.
False. Ridley, who started the season with a 24-point game and
produced three double-digit games in the first five, appears to
be in a bad slump. He’s produced just 35 yards on five catches
(12 targets) the past two games and has been surpassed by Christian Kirk. Kirk has double digit totals in five consecutive games after
one catch for nine yards in the season opener. Also, Kirk has
caught 71% of his targets while the inconsistent Ridley is hovering
around a 56% rate. When you don’t catch the ball, your quarterback
looks for someone who does. That’s Kirk.
5) Kenny Pickett will never be fantasy-worthy.
I’m going to have to disagree. The Steelers have not had
their entire receiving group together for a full game. Diontae Johnson was hurt in Week 1, and returned this Sunday, but starting
tight end Pat Freiermuth was placed on the IR. The return of Johnson,
however, allowed an efficient Pickett to complete a season-high
68% of his passes. The threat of both Johnson and the dangerous
George Pickens on the other side seemed to help open up the run
game for Najee Harris (season-high 15.8 fantasy points) and Jaylen Warren as the Steelers beat the Los Angeles Rams in California.
In fact, I like Pickett to be a low-end QB1 this weekend against
a bottom-10 Jacksonville pass defense.
