It’s expensive to pick elite running backs in fantasy football redraft
leagues. If you want Christian
McCaffrey, it’s going to cost you the top pick. Elite running
backs go early and often.
But what if you can find a rookie running back, fresh off the
college campus, who could add value to your running back room
at a much lower cost? What if you could reasonably predict which
running backs might give you start-worthy value (12 fantasy points
per game in PPR leagues) without it being the result of a starter
going down to injury?
To be sure, rookie handcuffs have value in fantasy… it’s just
not a predictable one and we want to select someone with value
from Week 1 of the season. But what if I could give you the tools
to make reasonable assumptions on which backs will have
fantasy value all season versus those waiting for their turn to
shine based on fate?
I have deeply analyzed the past three running back draft classes
and come up with a number of conclusions.
1) Its taking fewer touches to reach the 12 fantasy points
total than it used to.
In 2021, rookie running backs cracked the 12-point mark 47 times.
In those 47 games they touched the ball 975 times for an average
of 20.74 touches. In 2022 it was 49 times with 909 touches (18.55)
and last season there were 44 games, but it only took those backs
663 touches (15.06 per game).
Why the change? The college running back has become more and
more adept at catching the ball out of the backfield. In 2021
and 2022 just two backs caught at least 50 balls (Najee Harris
and Rachaad White) but last season Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs
and Tyjae Spears all caught at least 50 balls. In fact, in 2023
six rookie running backs caught at least 30 balls, the same as
the previous two years combined.
2) If you want your rookie to give you 12 fantasy points
in at least half his games played, he’s going to have to
be a high-round draft choice.
If teams spend a lot of capital on a running back, he’ll
likely get a chance to show his skills. Since 2021, there have
been four backs drafted in the first-round; Robinson, Gibbs, Harris
and Travis Etienne. Etienne didn’t play his first year due
to injury, but the other three backs recorded 32 fantasy-worthy
games in 49 starts (65.3%).
Last season, no fourth-round or later drafted back produced more
than two fantasy worthy games. But that wasn’t the same
as in previous seasons. Dameon Pierce, Tyler Allgeier, Isiah Pacheco
and Elijah Mitchell were all later picks who produced at least
six fantasy-worthy games. Each of them had volume in common. They
saw an immediate significant workload due to injury or ineptitude
from the incumbent.
So far, based on the numbers, we are searching for a highly-drafted
rookie, with an injured or ineffective incumbent, who can catch
the ball out of the backfield and predictably see at least 15
touches per game without benefitting from an injury.
Who fits that description? There were only four backs chosen
in the first three rounds. Let’s look at each situation.
The first running back off the draft board (second-round No.
46), Brooks obviously would have been drafted higher if not for
the ACL injury suffered in November. Unfortunately, this will
force him into a late start to off-season OTAs, summer camp and
games. He’ll likely start the year behind Chuba Hubbard
but ahead of former Eagles Miles Sanders and Rashaad Penny. Add
in a completely revamped offensive line (free agent signings of
Robert Hunt, Austin Corbett and Damien Lewis) designed to protect
last year’s rookie QB Bryce Young and there is no way Brooks
gets enough early season work to be fantasy-worthy. He can catch
the ball, so perhaps by fantasy playoff time he could have some
low end value.
The Cardinals drafted Benson in the third round (No. 66), but
their starter, James Conner, actually had a decent season (15.5
FPts/G) and a great fantasy playoff (averaged 22.1 FPts/G from
Week 15-17). Conner’s issue is staying healthy, having not
played more than 13 games in six of seven seasons. Thus the use
of a third-round selection on Benson. However, barring injury,
Benson will not get enough regular work and should be a handcuff-only.
The Rams’ starter from last season, Kyren Williams, likely helped
many a fantasy owner win their league after posting 21.4 FPts/G
over his 12 starts. Blake Corum (third-round No. 83) should have
no problem beating out the remainder of the running back room
for the backup role, but again, barring an injury he should not
have enough of a workload to be start-worthy in Week 1.
The Packers allowed Aaron Jones to leave, but signed free agent
Josh Jacobs to lead the Green Bay backfield. Add in AJ Dillon
and the selection of MarShawn Lloyd in the third-round (No. 88)
seems to be an overload to the running back room. After a monster
2023, Jacobs was a major disappointment in 2023 (233-805-6) and
14.1 FPts/G down from a career-high 19.4 FPts/G in 2023. Dillon’s
yards-per-carry has dropped every season, so Lloyd could earn
the backup and handcuff role, but fantasy-worthy value for most
of this season seems unlikely.
It was a bit of a strange draft selection in that Bucky Irving
led all FBS running backs in receptions with 56 and that’s
what starter Rachaad White does best (64-549-3 receiving and 272-990-6
rushing). White’s issue was running the ball at just a 3.6
ypc average. Irving (selected in the fourth round) should start
the season as White’s direct backup and could get running
opportunities if White continues to struggle as he averaged 6.3
ypc at Oregon in his final season. He could have value by the
fantasy playoffs.
The remainder of the running back draft class and their spot
on each team’s depth chart. Each has at least two players
in front of them and thus unlikely to have redraft value.
Jaylen Wright
– Miami (behind Raheem Mostert and Achane) Will Shipley
– Philadelphia (Saquon Barkley and Kenneth Gainwell) Ray Davis –
Buffalo (James Cook and Ty Johnson) Isaac Guerendo – San Francisco (McCaffrey and Mitchell) Braelon Allen
– New York Jets (Breece Hall and Israel Abanikanda) Audric Estime
– Denver (Javonte Williams and Samaje Perine) Rasheen Ali
– Baltimore (Derrick Henry, Justice Hill and Keaton Mitchell) Tyrone Tracy
Jr. – New York Giants (Devin Singletary and Eric Gray) Keilan Robinson
– Jacksonville (Travis Etienne, D’Ernest Johnson and Tank Bigsby) Isaiah Davis – New York Jets (Breece Hall, Israel Abanikanda
and Braelon Allen) Kimani Vidal – Los Angeles Chargers (JK Dobbins and Gus
Edwards) Jase McClellan
– Atlanta (Robinson, Allgeier and Avery Williams) Jawhar Jordan
– Houston (Joe Mixon, Dameon Pierce and Dare Ogunbowale) Dylan Laube – Las Vegas (Zamir White, Alexander Mattison
and Ameer Abdullah)
Bottom line
There are no Bijan
Robinson, Jahmyr
Gibbs or De’Von
Achane-type players in this year’s running back draft
class who can begin the season in your fantasy lineup. A few could
develop as the season progresses, but their primary value will
be as insurance for injured or inept starters only.
