Last week, we tried to find fantasy-worthy
rookie running backs with first-year value, but came up empty. This
week, we analyze rookie wide receivers to see if we can find any
value there.
First we need to know what to look for when searching for young
wideouts.
Opportunity to shine is paramount. You might be a great receiver,
but it you can’t get on the field, you can’t score.
Or if your chance to see significant targets is limited, so is
your first-year value.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba might have been the most talented receiver
in the 2023 draft, but he was stuck behind to excellent veterans
in Tyler Lockett (122 targets) and DK Metcalf (119 targets) meaning
fewer chances for “JSN” to show out. Smith-Njigba
only averaged 8.8 FPts/G and six start-worthy games (at least
12 fantasy points in PPR leagues) in 2023.
Five other rookie receivers produced more per game than “JSN”
(Zay Flowers, Jordan Addison, Rashee Rice, Tank Dell and Puka Nacua) and each saw more targets-per-game than Smith-Njigba’s
5.47-per-game. They also produced more touchdowns and saw more
red-zone targets. Each of the five listed above garnered between
15-to-22 red zone targets in 2023 while “JSN” saw
just 10.
So we will need a young receiver who will see plenty of targets
and also plenty of “high-value” targets he can turn
into touchdowns… a.k.a. bulk fantasy points.
Getting that opportunity can sometimes be “won” in OTAs, summer
camp and preseason, but most times for first-year players it’s
related to draft position. In 2023 first-round wideouts played
67-of-68 possible games (Flowers sat out Week 18). First rounders
also were most likely to produce start-worthy games when they
got on the field. They managed to reach the 12-point “start-worthy”
mark in 90-of-216 games (41.7%). Check the chart below for production
by round from 2021-2023. It’s pretty normal… except for Nacua
as a fifth-round selection last season. Without Nacua’s record-breaking
performance,e fifth rounders “start-worthy” percentage would sit
at (17.1%).
It also tells you to never pick a seventh-round receiver.
Rookie WRs 2021-2023
Round
SWG
Tot Gms
SWG%
1
90
216
41.7
2
47
187
25.1
3
22
162
13.6
4
12
75
16.0
5
19
58
32.7
6
7
95
7.3
7
0
36
0.0
So who might see six-or-more targets per game with at least one
“red zone” target per game?
As soon as the Cardinals made Marvin Harrison Jr. their top selection
in this year’s draft he became the team’s No.1 wide
receiver and likely the pass catcher with the most targets. But
his value will be dependent on Kyler Murray staying healthy because
backup quarterback Desmond Ridder has proven he can’t help
produce elite fantasy wideouts. With Murray under center, former
Cardinals receiver DeAndre Hopkins finished top-10 (based on FPts/G)
in two of three seasons (2020-22). In fact, in 2022 Murray supported
a top-10 and a top-30 receiver (Marquise Brown). He knows how
to feed a top receiver and MHJ has all the tools and the knowledge
to be that guy. Draft Harrison Jr. with confidence and start him
from Day 1.
Though I’m not a fan of Daniel Jones, with Saquon Barkley
in Philadelphia and being replaced by a lesser talent in Devin
Singletary, the Giants will be forced to throw more often than
in past seasons. That’s not necessarily a good thing. Giants
quarterbacks were sacked 84 times last season (14.1% of their
drop backs). With Nabers being a deep threat (averaged 17.4 ypr
last season), there are questions as to whether Jones will have
enough time to throw the long ball. Though he was the second wideout
drafted and I don’t question his long-term fantasy value,
in redraft leagues, I do question whether he can be fantasy-worthy
in 2024. Beware of overvaluing Nabers until this team has a better
OL and a different quarterback.
Attention world… the Chicago Bears have weapons on offense!
That’s a really good thing for Bears fans and rookie quarterback
Caleb Williams, but it might be a bad thing for Rome Odunze’s
initial fantasy value. Odunze will be competing with D.J. Moore,
who finished No.6 last season at the position, six-time Pro Bowler
Keenan Allen and tight end Cole Kmet for targets in 2024. On the
other hand, Allen has been injury-prone the past two seasons (missed
10 of 34 games) and in his 12th season isn’t the “future”
for this Bears team. By midseason, Odunze has a chance overtake
Allen if he and Williams quickly get on the same page. I like
Odunze’s fantasy value in the second half of the season
and fantasy playoffs.
The Jaguars wide receiver room is a crowded place with first-round
pick Brian Thomas Jr. joining Christian Kirk and Gabe Davis. Targets
will also have to be shared with tight end Evan Engram (143 targets,
114 receptions for 963 yards and four scores last season). Additionally,
the team liked throwing the ball to Travis Etienne out of the
backfield. Quarterback Trevor Lawrence has never thrown more than
25 touchdown passes in a season or more than 4,113 yards which
limits Thomas’ ceiling. However, I think Thomas becomes
the No.2 wideout behind Kirk and ahead of inconsistent Davis.
Kirk should produce as Calvin Ridley did last season and Thomas
can produce Kirk-like numbers (57-787-3) which included eight
start-worthy totals. Not bad for a rookie.
I’ll give Panthers management credit for one thing –
they understood that second-year quarterback Bryce Young needed
a lot better talent surrounding him and they have tried to make
it so. They added veteran wideout Diontae Johnson from Pittsburgh,
drafted Xavier Legette in the first round and added running back
Jonathon Brooks in the backfield. But I always worry about collegiate
one-year wonders like Legette, who averaged 10 receptions a year
for four years and then posted 71-1255-7 in their final season
(at South Carolina). Too many question marks here from the quarterback
to the receiver for me to have confidence heading into Week 1.
He’s going to have to prove his worth before I buy into
Legette’s fantasy value in 2024.
If opportunity for targets is the No.1 factor in turning a college
receiver into a fantasy-worthy pro in one season then Keon Coleman’s
name has to be near the top of the list. Stefon Diggs took his
160 targets to Houston and Gabe Davis and his 91 targets went
to Jacksonville. Coleman should get the largest share of those
251 available targets. He has an elite quarterback in Josh Allen
who has averaged 4,385 yards and 34 touchdowns since 2020. He‘s
a big guy who can be a possession receiver and a good red zone
target. Sure, he’ll have to share some with Curtis Samuel,
Khalil Shakir and talented tight end Dalton Kincaid, but he should
finish the season with 100+ targets. He might be the second-best
rookie wideout to start the season.
Wide receiver Keenan Allen (150 targets) now calls Chicago home
and oft-injured Mike Williams will play for the Jets this season
leaving plenty of opportunities for last year’s first-round
draft choice Quentin Johnston and this year’s second-rounder
Ladd McConkey. People hear the McConkey name and think of Phil
McConkey the undersized receiver for the Giants in the 1980s.
Ladd is not Phil. He’s six-feet tall and a better outside
receiver, not a slot guy. Even if Johnston improves, McConkey
should get plenty of use from his talented quarterback Justin
Herbert. I believe he’ll have value right from the start
and average the six targets per game needed to help your fantasy
roster.
Troy Franklin has an advantage over every other rookie receiver.
He’s already got a relationship with his quarterback. That’s
because Bo Nix was his quarterback the last two seasons at Oregon
where Franklin caught 142 passes for 2,274 and 23 touchdowns.
On the down side he does have a crowded wideout room with Courtland
Sutton, Marvin Mims and newly-acquired Josh Reynolds. I think
Franklin will quickly become the No.2 guy behind Sutton, but he’ll
still likely struggle to get the 100 targets needed to be start-worthy
from Day 1. More likely a second-half and playoff guy in 2024.
Notice Ricky Pearsall, drafted by San Francisco, is not on the
list for the same reason JSN wasn’t a breakout start last
season. He faces difficultly seeing enough targets with Deebo
Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk and even George Kittle. Target limit also
knocks out Xavier Worthy who will watch most of the work go to
Rashee Rice (pending any suspension), Marquise Brown and tight
end Travis Kelce. It doesn’t mean you can’t draft
them at all, it just means they are more injury/suspension insurance
in Year 1 than pure starter.
