Byes – Cleveland, Green Bay, Las Vegas, Seattle

Truths

“We live in a fantasy world, a world of illusion. The great task in life is to find reality.” Iris Murdoch

1) A quarterback without his top-two receivers can’t be blamed for failure.

Sure, you could blame C.J. Stroud’s struggles on the “sophomore jinx,” but the more accurate answer is he’s missing two elite wide receivers (Collins and Stefon Diggs). He’s not the only one. Matthew Stafford is a crafty veteran in his 16th season and the hit on his production from injuries to Kupp and Nacua was gigantic. Check the chart below and look at the production for quarterbacks with their top-two receivers and without this season. I guess this is why teams still pay big bucks, and are willing to deal with, “diva” receivers.

2) Similarly, a quarterback can help running back production.

The threat of Tagovailoa throwing to a streaking Tyreek Hill or Jaylen Waddle opens up the game for De’Von Achane. In four games with Tagovailoa under center, Achane is averaging a stunning 27.8 FPts/G. When Tua has been sidelined this season due to his latest concussion, Achane averaged a miniscule 7.0 FPts/G. Hey Miami, find a better backup quarterback than Skylar Thompson, Tyler Huntley and Tim Boyle if you want your running game to work when Tua inevitably gets hurt again.

3) The difference between the “good” Bijan Robinson (Weeks 6-9) and the “bad” one (Weeks 1-5) is touchdowns.

He averaged 13.5 FPts/G during the first five games of the season and scored one time. Since Week 6 he’s averaged 23.1 FPts/G and scored four times in four games. We have also seen an uptick in his workload from 17 touches per game to 21.8 touches. He has a favorable matchup in Week 10 against a Saints team ranked No.23 in fantasy points allowed to opposing running backs (25.3 ppg), including the second-most rushing touchdowns (10).

4) Isiah Pacheco’s fantasy value drops with each game Kareem Hunt plays.

Fact. Thoughts that Hunt would just be a temporary “bridge” until Pacheco returns near the end of November seem to fade a little with every game Hunt produces solid numbers. Hunt was signed to the practice squad in Week 3, promoted to the big club in Week 4, and became the team’s workhorse ever since. He’s seen touches of 28, 24, 22 and 28 and produced 18.3 FPts/G and five rushing touchdowns. Pacheco should certain be a major factor when he returns, but he can no longer be expected to be the 20-touch guy he was in Week 1 and 2. I make it a 60-40 split for Pacheco, but Hunt gets the goal line carries. Both should be viable fantasy options, but with reduced ceilings.

5) The outlook for Justin Herbert’s fantasy value is much improved.

True. Head coach Jim Harbaugh has obviously realized his quarterback can handle more than what he was given early on in the 2024 season and Herbert has shown out well with the increased workload. From Week 1-4, Herbert averaged 22.8 passing attempts and produced just 12.9 fantasy points a game. Since their Week 5 bye, Herbert’s arm has been utilized much more (averaging 33 passing attempts) and the uptick in production has been significant (20.9). After an expected tough game versus Tennessee in Week 10 (ninth in QB fantasy points allowed), Herbert should get his chance to shine against Cincinnati (29th) and Baltimore (30th).

6) Bonus – Saquon Barkley’s athleticism is otherworldly.

100%. Who would even think about such a move? If you haven’t watched his backwards leap over a Jaguars’ defender after a 360-degree spin move, go find it and enjoy. Video game programmers are scrambling to write this into next year’s games.

Lies

“In a time of universal deceit – telling the truth is a revolutionary act.” - Unknown

1) You can begin to trade depth for the best possible starting lineup in preparation for the playoff run.

False. Normally, this would be true, but the NFL has back-loaded the byes in 2024 with 20 of the 32 teams having a bye between Weeks 10-14. Therefore, unless you are running away from all the other owners and have a three- or four-game lead, you will have to keep your depth until the very end.

2) The trade of Khalil Herbert (for a 7th-round pick) will put an end to the short-lived Chase Brown workhorse theory.

Not true. Herbert is a decent runner (132-611-2 in 2023), but an inferior pass blocker, and the most important player on the Bengals roster is, and always will be, Joe Burrow. Herbert might lower the ceiling for Brown a little bit, but he’s still going to be the 20-touch guy you want to own in the second half and the playoffs. He’s averaged 16.2 FPts/G since Week 4. Former No.2 guy in Cincinnati, Zack Moss, is out indefinitely with a neck injury.

3) Kirk Cousins is a top-five fantasy quarterback since Week 5.

Yes, technically, at this moment, ranking fifth at 25.0 FPts/G, but a deeper look into the numbers shows that for the season he averaged 36.5 fantasy points in two games against Tampa Bay and 18.6 fantasy points in six other starts. Unfortunately for his fantasy owners, the Falcons don’t play the Bucs again this season. Cousins has failed to crack 16 points five times. He faces a middle-of-the-pack Saints defense in Week 10, then has two tough games sandwiched around a bye in Week 12. Cousins will face Denver and the Los Angeles Chargers, both of whom are top-seven defenses in fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks. Have a backup plan in place for those two games.

4) We should still be excited about the “new” quarterback in Cleveland – Jameis Winston.

Nope. Sure, he’s certainly better than Deshaun Watson, but so is my alma mater’s current DIII quarterback. The excitement and media hype after Winston’s first game as the Browns starter (27-of-41 for 334 yards and three scores) in an upset win of powerful Baltimore has quickly dissipated after the Chargers’ pass defense dominated him in Week 9 (three interceptions). Only a garbage-time touchdown pass to Cedric Tillman made the day even remotely palatable (18.5 fantasy points). Also, the upcoming schedule is not favorable to get back on track. The Brown’s next four games after their Week 10 bye are against; Pittsburgh, Denver, Pittsburgh again and Kansas City.

5) Brock Bowers is the best fantasy tight end in the league.

Not yet, but it is coming… and soon. The rookie out of Georgia leads all tight ends in targets (73), receptions (57) and yards (580). The only factor holding him back is touchdowns (2). Just think how much better he will be with say a quarterback like Shedeur Sanders (currently at Colorado) throwing him passes rather than Gardner Minshew, Aidan O’Connell and Desmond Ridder. In four seasons as Jacksonville State and Colorado, the son of Deion Sanders, has thrown for 12,784 yards and 118 touchdowns. I always prefer four-year college starters over one-year wonders (see Bo Nix vs. Anthony Richardson).

6) Bonus –