Byes – Arizona, Carolina, New York Giants, Tampa Bay

Truths

How often have I said “if you eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth?” – Sir Arthur Conan Doyle as Sherlock Holmes

1) The loss of Rashee Rice has saved the season for those who start Travis Kelce.

Fact. At the beginning of the season Patrick Mahomes preferred Rice over Kelce over the middle of the field. And why not? Rice is much more explosive after the catch and averaged 21.6 FPts/G. Kelce’s target share since the injury – over 30% and 17.8 FPts/G. Before the injury it was 14.3% and 5.0 FPts/G. If Rice is healthy to start next season, where will Kelce’s value lie?

2) The “real” Sam Darnold has returned at just the wrong time.

Darnold had managed to keep the “evil” Sam under control for much of the season, but alas, he’s been released and it isn’t pretty. After seven games without throwing more than one interception, the last two games have seen two and three. We didn’t seem to mind in Week 9, because he also produced 290 yards and three scores, for 27.9 fantasy points, but on Sunday against the 30th-ranked Jaguars he displayed all the “bad stuff.” Three picks, zero touchdown passes and 14.9 fantasy points instead of what should have been a big day. Meanwhile, the schedule turns dark and stormy. The Titans (ranked 10th versus opposing QBs), the Bears twice (No.2) and an improving Cardinals’ pass defense over the next five games will test Darnold.

2) If you were hoping rookie Jonathon Brooks was your “ace in the hole” for a late-season push, you will be sadly disappointed.

The Panthers front office may not know how to draft or sign free agents (Miles Sanders deal), but they just signed Chuba Hubbard to a long-term deal and he’s proving to be the best player on the Carolina roster. He ranks fifth in PPR fantasy points (166.2) and 12th in FPts/G (16.6). Brooks most certainly won’t be a workhorse back as hoped after he was drafted and when/if he finally starts playing will be a backup to Hubbard, though certainly should get all the Sanders work.

3) The recent downturn in Caleb Williams’ game has taken its toll on the Bears receivers too.

The Bears wideouts haven’t produced even a top-20 result in a month. They have managed just three 20-point games the entire season, one each for D.J. Moore, Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze (five if we include tight end Cole Kmet). He better turn it around if Chicago wished to get back in the playoff hunt because the next part of the schedule includes five NFC North opponents and the 49ers.

5) Thanksgiving dinner should be on time this year… for a change.

Set the turkey’s oven timer to be done at exactly 4:30 pm ET. Not even rabid fantasy owners are going to prefer watching the New York Giants “battle” the sad drama that is Dallas these days, over a beautiful turkey and gravy, potatoes (mashed or sweet), green bean casserole, stuffing and pumpkin pie.

6) Bonus -

Lies

“A lie told often enough becomes the truth.” – Lenin

1) Diontae Johnson will be OK, because he’s with a much better quarterback now.

Sure, Lamar Jackson and Bryce Young aren’t of the same species (one is a two-time MVP and the other can barely keep his starting job), but in Carolina, Johnson was the top target and in Baltimore he’s likely just an insurance policy. Last Thursday in his 2nd game with the Ravens he was on the field for five snaps and ran three routes. He was targeted twice, catching one short one for six yards and falling down on the other one as the ball sailed by. Barring injury, he’s not going to be targeted ahead of Zay Flowers, Rashod Bateman or Mark Andrews and isn’t fantasy-worthy except as a handcuff.

2) Ja’Marr Chase has been a monster all season.

Actually, he’s produced two huge games (55.4 and 41.3) both against the Baltimore Ravens. He’s averaging 16.1 against the remainder of the league. Interestingly, last season it was just the opposite. He averaged 8.7 FPts/G against the Ravens and 17.6 FPts/G against the rest of the league. While he leads the league in 2024 with a 22.5 FPts/G average, he won’t see the Ravens unless they meet in the playoffs. He is scheduled to play against Jim Harbaugh’s stingy Chargers defense (seventh against opposing wideouts), then a bye and a date with Pittsburgh. He has yet to play the Steelers this season, but managed just a 4-81-0 line in his one game against them in 2023.

3) The Steelers should have stuck with Justin Fields as their starting quarterback because he could be the long-term answer in Pittsburgh.

Sorry, no. The Steelers aren’t looking for a long-term answer, they are looking to win now. They are known as a patient franchise (over the last 56 years they have had just three head coaches; Chuck Noll, Bill Cowher and Mike Tomlin), but they haven’t been to a Super Bowl in 14 years (that’s a lot in Pittsburgh… sorry Detroit, Cleveland, Jacksonville and Houston Texans). They are averaging 30.3 points under Russell Wilson’s direction versus 20.7 under Fields. And George Pickens would certainly agree with the decision. He averaged 10.2 with Fields and 18.0 FPts/G in three Wilson starts. His next four opponents are all favorable plays – Baltimore, Cleveland twice and Cincinnati. None of them are in the top half of “fantasy points allowed to opposing receivers” with the Browns 28th and the Ravens 32nd (a.k.a., last). Remember the days of the great Ed Reed at safety or Terrell Suggs? These aren’t those days.

4) The return of Christian McCaffrey was the only exciting news to come out of the 49ers-Bucs game.

False. I’m very interested in the progression of rookie wide receiver Ricky Pearsall. In just his third game back from being shot during a robbery attempt, he’s shown a steady upward climb to his production. He’s gone from 5.1 fantasy points in Week 7 to 11.7 points in Week 8 and 17.3 Sunday on a season-high six targets the same as Deebo Samuel. That’s despite McCaffrey seeing seven and Jauan Jennings a team-high 11 targets. I’m still being careful since this team has so many weapons, I didn’t even mention George Kittle, but I like what I saw, particularly if Kittle’s hamstring isn’t ready to go.

5) Dallas Goedert is a top-10 fantasy tight end.

Though he is currently in the top-10, I don’t think he stays there as long as A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith are healthy. Goedert’s 2024 fantasy average of 10.8 FPts/G is distorted by a 27-point game in Week 3 when Brown was sidelined and a 13.2 effort the following week when both elite wideouts were in street clothes. Throwing out the game he was injured in the first quarter (Week 6), his average is a mediocre 8.1 FPts/G. That type production would rank 21st in 2024 (of those with at least three games played).