Byes: Denver, Los Angeles Chargers, Miami, Washington

Truths

“The truth." Dumbledore sighed. "It is a beautiful and terrible thing, and should therefore be treated with great caution.” - J.K. Rowling

1) To all those who said Shedeur Sanders wasn’t ready to play NFL level quarterback… you were right.

In his first game action, 28 snaps, he led his team to zero points by going 4-of-16 for 47 yards, two sacks and one interception. He rushed three times for 16 yards for a 13.5 QB rating. He did this against a Ravens team which ranks middle-of-the pack against opposing QBs (21.1 FPts/G), though they have been an improved defense of late (more on that later). For reference; Josh Allen's first game - 6-of-15 for 74 yards, three sacks, rushed for 26 yards. Joe Montana's first start - 5-of-12 for 36 yards, three rushes for 22 yards. Ken Stabler's first action - 2-of-7 for 52 yards, one interception, one rush for minus four yards. This doesn't mean Sanders can't play quarterback in the NFL, only that he can't do it right now.

2) Those who start Trey McBride, NEVER want Kyler Murray back at quarterback.

Fact. With Murray (foot) under center through the first five games, McBride averaged 12.5 FPts/G with one touchdown catch. When Jacoby Brissett took over in Week 6, McBride's production exploded and he's averaging a stunning 24.5 FPts/G with a five-game touchdown streak (a total of six touchdowns). He now leads the position in scoring (18.5 FPts/G). Brock Bowers led all tight ends last season with a 15.8 FPts/G average. McBride is playing "prime Travis Kelce-level" football right now and we don't want that to disappear.

3) The Tampa Bay backfield is about to turn into a fantasy quagmire.

It may be this week or more likely next week, but when Bucky Irving returns from his shoulder injury, he's going to demand (not verbally, but talent-wise) playing time. Meanwhile, Sean Tucker just put together the second-best game of his career (19-106-2 and 2-34-1) for 34 fantasy points. Rachaad White had been the starter since Week 5 when Irving was injured and averaged a respectable 12.6 FPts/G. Irving averaged an elite 18.5 FPts/G over the first four games and should get his starting spot back, but what level of workload and how will the rest of the rushing attempts be divided? I'm glad I'm not OC Josh Grizzard or Head Coach Todd Bowles.

4) Continuing with Tampa, the "empty" receiver room is finally getting to Baker Mayfield.

Baker is averaging just 18.7 FPts/G over his last five starts versus 23.8 FPts/G for his first five starts this season. That's the difference of being highly ranked and over the last five games ranking 23rd. Is being without Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and the elite receiving of Irving finally taking a toll on Mayfield? Even rookie Emeka Egbuka dealt with the injury bug (hamstring), but played through it. Egbuka, Sterling Shepard and Tez Johnson simply does not even nearly equal Evans, Godwin and Egbuka. I'll give Mayfield a pass until/if his "Big Three" are back in tact.

5) There are dangers with having a host team in Las Vegas a.k.a. "Sin City."

True. Not all players have the self-control to survive in a town like Las Vegas. Some can't even make it through a weekend without getting into a bit of trouble. Case in point; CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens, the Cowboys dynamic receiving duo, apparently missed meetings while the team had a Monday night game in Week 11 and they were held out of the team's first drive. Hopefully, no one placed a bet on them performing on the first drive. That's one of the dangers of prop betting.

Lies

“When truth is replaced by silence, the silence is a lie.” - Yevgeny Yevtushenko

1) Chuba Hubbard still has fantasy value.

Sorry no, at least not for the rest of 2025. At this point he is simply an expensive handcuff. Hubbard's "career" year in 2024 (1,195 rushing yards, 10 rushing touchdowns and 13.5 FPts/G average) earned him a $33 million contract with half of it guaranteed, but it apparently didn't guarantee him a starting role. Rico Dowdle, who is working on a one-year "prove it" deal for $2.75 million is doing just that. He's averaging 12.5 FPts/G for the season, but more impressively, 17.5 FPts/G as a starter since Week 5 when Hubbard injured his calf. Dowdle has earned a large raise for next season whether it's in Carolina or elsewhere. It would be tough for the Panthers to afford two expensive backs under contract next season. Hubbard could regain his starting job next year if Dowdle goes elsewhere, so Hubbard still has dynasty value.

2) Patrick Mahomes is washed.

Despite scoring just 13 and 18.1 points the past two contests, Mahomes is not washed. He just ran into two top-five defenses. The Broncos rank No.2 against opposing QBs (16.1 FPts/G allowed) and the Bills rank fifth (17.1). Patrick may not the guy he was from 2020-2022 (averaged 27.7 FPts/G), but he's still a top-five fantasy quarterback in 2025. On the other hand, his schedule is one of the more difficult ones the rest of the way, particularly his fantasy playoff schedule.

3) You can win your fantasy championship with young Drake Maye as your quarterback.

The "Magic 8-ball" says unlikely. Maye, who currently ranks No.3 among quarterbacks averaging 23.8 FPts/G, can help you get a top seed, but his fantasy schedule is much tougher than you would like. He faces No. 28 Cincinnati and No. 27 New York Giants the next two games and should be elite. But, in the final week of the regular season, he'll be sitting on the couch watching games just like you, so you will need a solid backup. Then, his first two rounds in the playoffs his opponents are much more difficult. He faces No.5 ranked Buffalo, who just held Mahomes to 13 points and the Ravens in the second round. Overall the Ravens rank No.20 against opposing QBs, but looking deeper, they rank No.2 (14.6 FPts/G) since their Week 7 bye. They have adapted and adjusted their defense.

4) You still have to be worried every time Christian McCaffrey gets tackled.

The statistics have me leaning towards... NO. When McCaffrey has been injured it's usually at the beginning of the season. In his three injury-filled seasons (2020, 2021 and 2024) he played three, seven and four games, respectively. In his five other seasons, he's played at least 16 games. CMC has already played 11-of-11 this season and as the 49ers offense has gotten healthier the past two games, McCaffrey's workload has been lessened. Thanks to the recent returns of George Kittle, Jauan Jennings and Ricky Pearsall this past weekend, CMC has seen just 20 and 18 touches the past two games versus an average 25.4 touches through the first nine games.

5) Kirk Cousins couldn't have picked a better team to play against in Week 12 than the lowly 2-8 New Orleans Saints and is fantasy-worthy.