Byes: None

Truths

“Show me a man that gets rich by being a politician, and I’ll show you a crook.” Harry S. Truman

1) Marvin Harrison Jr. has produced two 100+ yard receiving days in his 26-game career.

True. Meanwhile, with MHJ sidelined by appendicitis, Michael Wilson has done it in the last two games. He has been a target monster, seeing 18 and 15 targets from Jacoby Brissett and produced 185 yards on 15 catches and 118 yards on 10 catches for a combined 55.3 fantasy points. It's fair to ask what Wilson's role and Harrison's role will be when the former first-round pick returns either this week or next. It would be hard to believe that Brissett will only target Wilson 4.2 times a game as he was getting from Week 1-9. In my mind, MHJ will likely be the third option behind Trey McBride and Wilson.

2) In Week 12, Christian Watson saw as many targets as Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks combined.

Fact. Until Jayden Reed returns from his broken collarbone, Watson should be the "leader of the Pack" receiving corps. He's seen a modest 12 targets over the past two games, but turned them in 30.5 fantasy points. The Packers Week 13 Thanksgiving Day matchup with division rival Detroit is likely to be a high-scoring affair and you will want to be part of it (In Week 14 of 2024 these two teams played a 34-31 game at Ford Field). Christian Watson is only rostered in 48% of all leagues and could be a week winner in this game with an O/U of 49.

3) Since Samaje Perine went down with an injury in Week 9, Chase Brown has become the RB1 we were expecting all season.

In three games, Brown has seen an average of 21.3 touches and produced 243 yards rushing and 18 receptions on 26 targets for 126 yards for 17.6 FPts/G. The only thing he hasn't done is get into the end zone. This is a top-10 level of usage. By comparison, over their last three games, James Cook is averaging 19 touches, Javonte Williams 20.3 touches and Bijan Robinson 20.7 touches and all are top-10 fantasy running backs.

4) The Titans' Chimere Dike now has fantasy value.

Dike has produced more than 15 fantasy points in three of the last five games. His value is dramatically rising with Calvin Ridley out for the season (broken fibula) and Elic Ayomanor sidelined by a hamstring injury. Dike saw a team-high seven targets against a tough Seattle defense and should have an easier time with the 20th-ranked Jaguars defense (based on WR fantasy points allowed). He's rostered in just 14% of all leagues.

5) It's okay to be disappointed with Brock Bowers 2025 production.

True. If you are playing in head-to-head leagues his production is as follows; missed three games due to injury, produced less than 10 points in four games, produced between 10-15.3 points in three games, and had one great game in Week 9 (43.3 points). He's averaged just 10.4 FPts/G without the Week 9 effort. That's simple not what we expected when we drafted him as the No.1 tight end off the board. Last season, with Gardner Minshew, Aidan O'Connell and Desmond Ridder throwing him the ball, he produced eight games above 15 points and four games above 20 points, averaging 15.5 FPts/G as a rookie. We expected more from the Geno Smith-to-Bowers connection.

Lies

“A man may imagine things that are false, but he can only understand things that are true.” - Sir Isaac Newton

1) Patrick Mahomes has been elite all season.

Sorry, no. Over the past five games, Mahomes ranks 15th averaging 20.4 FPts/G. From Week 1-6 he was both running the ball and scoring touchdowns (222 yards and four rushing touchdowns worth 46.2 fantasy points or 7.7 FPts/G) but since Week 7 he's produced just 1.9 fantasy points with his legs. Blame it on the Chiefs running backs getting healthier or his not wanting to take as many hits as he did earlier in the season, but it's adding up to mediocre fantasy value. For the season he still ranks No.2 behind Josh Allen, but there has been a definitive drop off in the second half of the season.

2) George Pickens has finally has finally blossomed into the receiver we thought he could be coming out of Georgia.

Or maybe he just needed a quality quarterback throwing him the ball. It also doesn't hurt that many teams double CeeDee Lamb on the other side of the field. During his three seasons in Pittsburgh his quarterbacks were; Justin Fields, an over-the-hill Russell Wilson, Kenny Pickett, Mason Rudolph and Mitchell Trubisky. And the best receiver playing across from him was Diontae Johnson. Pickens is seeing a career-high 8.4 targets-per-game with Dak Prescott under center. He averaged 24.2 FPts/G when Lamb was sidelined by injury, but even when they are both on the field he is slightly outscoring him by a 17.7 to 17.1 FPts/G margin

3) Rookie Emeka Egbuka is a fantasy star.

While it appeared that way to start the season, my opinion has changed. He started the season "guns-a-blazing" producing 100.4 fantasy points over his first five NFL games (20.1 FPts/G). During those first five games he had either Mike Evans or Chris Godwin on the field at the same time. However, from Week 6 on, he's cracked 10 fantasy points in just one game and is averaging a mediocre-at-best 9.9 FPts/G. He's going to be very good, but he's not yet ready to lead a receiving corps. Godwin did come back in Week 12 on a limited basis, but if the veteran can return to form it should help improve Egbuka's game.

4) The Colts' running back Jonathan Taylor is still in the MVP race.

Sorry, no. Two ugly games in his last three outings have sabotaged his chances. He rushed for just 45 yards in a loss to Pittsburgh in Week 9 and last Sunday he disappointed fans and fantasy owners with a touchdown-less 58 yards in another loss to Kansas City. There have been just three non-quarterback NFL MVPs since 2001 (Adrian Peterson 2012, LaDainian Tomlinson 2006 and Shaun Alexander 2005). If I had a vote it would be given to Matthew Stafford.

5) Barry Sanders is the most talented running back in Detroit Lions history.

I may be crazy, but I believe Jahmyr Gibbs has more talent than the great Hall of Famer Barry Sanders. Sanders certainly has the career numbers since Gibbs has played just two and a half seasons and split time with David Montgomery during the first two seasons. However, in Year 3, Gibbs has come into his own. He's the scariest runner in the league who can score from anywhere on the field. Sound familiar? Sanders was more elusive side-to-side, but Gibbs is faster. Gibbs is a better receiver. Also, Gibbs doesn't fumble. Gibbs still has to continue to produce at this level for a decade, but he's on a better team with more talent around him to distract opponents. Remember on Draft Day 2023 when the Lions made Gibbs the No.12 overall pick and we couldn't understand why they would do that when they had Jamaal Williams and D'Andre Swift on the roster? We don't wonder anymore.