My recent string of successful
tickets in the DraftKings weekly millionaire contest came to an
end this week after my Carson Wentz/Nelson Agholor Eagles stack
failed to live up to expectations. After two 30-point performances
in his last three games, including a four-touchdown game last
week against Washington, Wentz struggled against the 49ers, one
of the worst defensive units in the league.
Wentz and the matchup against the 49ers seemed like a no-brainer
for fantasy points, with the Eagles dominating teams at home and
San Francisco’s struggles on the road. The second-year quarterback
played well, with two passing touchdowns, 211 yards, and a two-point
conversion for 18.14 points. But to win in GPP tournaments you
need the top quarterback play of the week, not just a solid performance
in a lopsided win against an inferior opponent.
Negative game script is a term that I have often used this season,
yet I didn’t heed my own advice and was bit in the butt.
I should have anticipated that the Eagles defense would dominate
rookie QB C.J. Beathard and limit the need for Wentz to put up
elite fantasy production. It was a basic mistake that cost me
the $20 entry fee, and something that I will hopefully learn from
going forward.
The following losing ticket is from last Sunday’s millionaire
GPP on DraftKings.
Quarterback: Carson
Wentz Fantasy Points: 18.14
Grade: C-
In hindsight, Wentz is the type of play you want to make it cash
games and not large tournaments. I knew that the floor was there,
but I had a gut feeling that he and wide receiver Nelson Agholor
would take advantage of a suspect secondary that allowed huge
games to wide receivers like Sammy Watkins, Robert Woods, and
T.Y. Hilton.
But again, game script is key here, as the 49ers played the Rams
and Colts tight in both of these matchups, forcing Jared Goff
and Jacoby Brissett to attack in the air well into the fourth
quarter. I am a fan of Wentz and will continue to use him in the
future, but only against teams with defenses that can push the
scoring envelope, like Dallas in two weeks.
This was my final stand this year with rookie Joe Mixon. After
losing money on him in disappointing matchups earlier in the year,
I waited patiently to reinsert him into my lineup for the choice
home matchup against the Colts, a team that allows the third-most
points to opposing running backs. I figured that if he couldn’t
get it done this week against the lowly Colts, he wouldn’t
be a player worthy of consideration going forward.
Needless to say, he did not get it done, with a 67-yard reception
salvaging a pathetic 11/18 rushing stat line. To be fair it is
not all Mixon’s fault, with head coach Marvin Jones’
(Jeff Fisher 2.0) terrible scheme and a piss-poor offensive line,
it would be hard for any running back to have success. I just
won’t let it happen again on my dime.
Thompson continues to be a value at $5,800 as home run running
back with a nice floor due to his work as the receiving back in
Washington. With eight catches for 78 yards and an additional
18 yards on the ground, Thompson did exactly what I was hoping
from a volume standpoint. Unfortunately, he fumbled and did not
reach the end zone, which limited him to 16.4 fantasy points.
I think I have doubled the size of the bald spot on my dome,
scratching my head while trying to figure out how Green managed
just three catches for 27 yards against the Colts. It is the second
consecutive game for Green in which he caught just three passes
from Andy
Dalton and the third time in four games in which he was the
recipient of fewer than ten targets. So much for the Bill Lazor
effect.
I struggled between Alshon Jeffery and Agholor for my wide receiver
stack with Wentz, opting in the end for the cheaper option. Of
course Jeffery turned out to be the one to score, but in reality,
neither player did enough to help this pathetic roster cash.
Ginn and Brees appear to be finding their rapport with the two
connecting on a 40-plus reception in three of their last five
games, including a 53-yard bomb this week against the Bears. Unfortunately
for me, that catch was just one of two for Ginn in what turned
out to be a disappointing day.
Tight End: Nick
O’Leary Fantasy Points: 1.5
Grade: F
There is not much to say about this pick other than I needed
a cheap tight end to round out my roster and O’Leary at
home against the Raiders seemed like a nice upside play. I anticipated
either a monster Jack Doyle-esque game with a score and a ton
of volume, or a dud in which O’Leary would get me next to
nothing. In keeping with the theme of this dreadful ticket, the
latter is what transpired.
My contrarian play of the week was Cooks against a stout Chargers
secondary that has yet to allow a 100-yard receiver this season.
Although Cooks is on pace for 1000 yards and six touchdowns, his
salary on DraftKings has slowly dropped from a high Week 2 of
$8,200 to just under 7k last week.
I was right on Cooks being a contrarian play (8.5%), but I was
wrong in my prediction that he would have a big game at home.
D/ST: Bengals
Fantasy Points: 14
Grade: A
The two defensive units that made the most sense this week were
the Bengals and Eagles, as both teams enjoyed home matchups against
poor offenses that allow a ton of sacks. Although the Eagles posted
more points in the week, the Bengals came through with a respectable
14 points on four sacks and a defensive score.
