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Regular Season, Updated: 9/7/2020

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 Jared Goff, LAR (Bye: 9)
Height: 6’4”   Weight: 215   DOB: 1994-10-14   Age: 25
College: California   Draft: 2016 Round 1 (1) 
SeasonTeamGameComp Att Yard TD INTAtt Yard TDFPtsFPts/G
2017LAR15297 478 3,809 28 7 28 51 1 313.6 20.9
2018LAR16364 561 4,688 32 12 43 108 2 385.2 24.1
2019LAR16394 626 4,638 22 16 33 40 2 335.9 21.0
2020 (Projected)LAR 378 591 4,433 25 14 39 75 1 335.2  

Outlook: High-level fantasy production in both 2017 and 2018 led to Jared Goff having some hype as a potential top five fantasy QB in 2019, but it just didn't fall that way for a variety of reasons. Many will argue that the Rams' offense coached by Sean McVay has been "figured out" by NFL defenses and while that certainly may be contributing to the steep scoring decline that the team saw from 2018 to 2019, it should also be noted that the team was banged up and the offensive line continues to crumble in front of Goff. Still, some of the blame for the Rams scoring 133 fewer points in 2019 than they did in 2018 has to fall on Goff himself and the sudden spike up to 16 interceptions that he threw.

On a positive note, Goff did lead the entire NFL with 626 pass attempts in 2019 and he was able to salvage a top-12 fantasy QB season on sheer volume alone as he eclipsed 4,600 passing yards for the second straight season. While we shouldn't project him to throw the ball that much again this season, the Rams offense will likely still be built on a high play per minute ratio, which should lead to Goff again being near the top of the league in pass attempts. He will, however, be without Brandin Cooks and the team really did not bring in any sort of significant replacement for him, so don't look for the offense to be constructed the same way that it was in McVay's first few seasons with the Rams. We saw in 2019 some of what we should be expecting this season with fewer downfield pass attempts and more underneath throws to possession receivers and tight ends.

Goff lacks the rushing credentials to be a truly elite fantasy quarterback in today's game, but he's currently being selected outside the top 20 quarterbacks in many drafts. There's very little chance that he finishes below his ADP right now which should make him an ideal target as an ideal later-round QB2 in two-QB or superflex formats.

 Tom Brady, TB (Bye: 13)
Height: 6’4”   Weight: 225   DOB: 1977-08-03   Age: 43
College: Michigan   Draft: 2000 Round 6 (33) 
SeasonTeamGameComp Att Yard TD INTAtt Yard TDFPtsFPts/G
2017NE16385 581 4,576 32 8 25 28 0 359.6 22.5
2018NE16375 570 4,355 29 11 23 35 2 349.3 21.8
2019NE16373 613 4,057 24 8 26 34 3 320.3 20.0
2020 (Projected)TB 366 564 4,170 27 10 24 33 1 325.8  

Outlook: Two things are true about Tom Brady: he is one of the greatest to ever play quarterback, and he is getting old. One does not negate the other. The fact that he is indeed aging, in the process losing some of his velocity and his ability to throw deep, should in no way affect his legacy as perhaps the greatest of all time. Father Time comes for us all.

His decline last season was minor, and therefore easy to miss. But you can see it on film when you watch him throw deep. The ball arcs up high, with receivers having to wait underneath it, rather than getting there with any zip. You can see it in the stat line. While some will point to his poor surrounding cast, he had his lowest completion percentage since 2003 (60.8%) and his lowest yards per attempt since 2006 (6.8 ypa). He also had only 24 passing touchdowns, his fewest since 2003. He is still a coach on the field, and is generally going to make the right decisions, as seen by his excellent 1.3% interception rate. But much of his zip is gone, limiting his statistical upside.

So what should we expect out of Brady this season, in his first chance to play away from New England and without Bill Belichick as his coach? It is incredibly difficult to predict. What we do know is that his supporting cast is vastly improved. He has two of the best wide receivers in the game, and also has his favorite tight end Rob Gronkowski back. Those players around him could seriously boost his numbers, regardless of any physical decline. He is unlikely to throw many passes over 30 yards downfield, as that's not his game anymore. While that will limit the upside of Mike Evans in particular, Brady has shown he can put up great stats by focusing on finding open receivers in the short and intermediate areas of the field.

Learning a new offensive system and getting on the same page as his new teammates could cause some frustration early on, but he should figure all of that out relatively quickly. Therefore, I anticipate we will see Brady pass for over 30 touchdowns and around 4,500 yards. He makes for a nice upside pick in fantasy drafts in the 10th or 11th round.

 Daniel Jones, NYG (Bye: 11)
Height: 6’5”   Weight: 221   DOB: 1997-05-27   Age: 23
College: Duke   Draft: 2019 Round 1 (6) 
SeasonTeamGameComp Att Yard TD INTAtt Yard TDFPtsFPts/G
2019NYG13284 459 3,027 24 12 45 279 2 287.3 22.1
2020 (Projected)NYG 332 535 3,637 25 14 59 303 2 324.2  

Outlook: General manager Dave Gettleman received a ton of criticism for using the sixth overall pick in the 2019 NFL draft on Duke QB Daniel Jones, a player many NFL writers and analysts felt was taken way too high. Say what you want about Gettleman - and there is a ton of negative things to say - Jones looked every bit of the franchise quarterback as a rookie last season.

Jones completed just under 62 percent of his passes, for 3027 yards and 24 touchdowns in only 13 games. His 22.1 points per game were higher than Kyler Murray and Josh Allen, two fellow young signal-callers going much earlier than him in drafts.

Jones' 16-game pace would have shattered the rookie touchdown passing record at 33, and he quietly added value on the ground with 279 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns. He is relatively athletic for a player his size, giving more value on the ground that other QBs ranked around him like Philip Rivers, Kirk Cousins, or Jared Goff.

With three games against the Steelers, Bears, and 49ers to kick off the season, Jones is not someone streaming owners would like to draft and start. However, he will continue to have sneaky upside based on matchups, including weeks late in the season against the Bengals, Browns, and Cardinals.

 Ben Roethlisberger, PIT (Bye: 8)
Height: 6’5”   Weight: 241   DOB: 1982-03-02   Age: 38
College: -   Draft: 2004 Round 1 (11) 
SeasonTeamGameComp Att Yard TD INTAtt Yard TDFPtsFPts/G
2017PIT15360 561 4,251 28 14 28 47 0 329.3 22.0
2018PIT16452 675 5,129 34 16 31 98 3 420.3 26.3
2019PIT235 62 351 0 1 1 7 0 18.3 9.1
2020 (Projected)PIT 333 512 3,940 27 14 19 39 1 314.9  

Outlook: Sure, some teams get hit with a rash of injuries, but what the Steeler offense dealt with last season was bordering on silly. After Roethlisberger went down in Week 2 with a season ending elbow injury, Pittsburgh lost their No.1 running back (Conner) and No.1 receiver (Smith-Schuster) for a total of 10 additional games and could simply not find any rhythm or consistency in the games they did play in. Combined with the injuries and inexperienced back-ups taking over for Big Ben, Pittsburgh plummeted from 4th in total offense in 2018 to 30th in 2019.

As we sit here mired in the tumultuous summer of 2020, there are a slew of unanswered questions revolving around the Steeler offense, and they start with the 38-year-old QB starting his 17th season in Black and Gold. His last full season was one for the ages, as he finished as the No.2 overall fantasy quarterback, with career highs in attempts, yardage, and touchdowns. Although guys like Brady and Brees make it seem 38 is young for quarterbacks now, Roethlisberger has much more wear and tear than the other guys around his age. The bevy of lower body injuries he's had over the years make him a statue in the pocket, and none of those other old fellas is coming back from a serious throwing arm injury. Heck, the jury is still out on how effective he can be without Antonio Brown, and the one full game he played last season was an abysmal 33-3 loss to New England.

With 16 years of numbers to analyze we know that more times than not Roethlisberger has been a QB1. The abundance of playmakers around him was always enough to ensure his numbers stayed consistent, but things have swung wildly in the other direction in just one calendar year. With health a bigger question mark than ever and a supporting cast still going through growing pains, can the vet return to piece it all together? I'm very skeptical. At his age, even fully recovered, there has to be a loss in velocity off his fastball, and it remains to be seen just how much formal work he will get with his teammates before the start of the season. Can Conner return to 2018 form? Can Ju-Ju ascend and play up to the #1 receiver gig? Can some of the young guys develop into reliable playmakers? Most of this hinges on the return of Roethlisberger. There is a boatload of fantasy value in this offense IF Big Ben is healthy enough to see it through. The spectra of injury, age and ineffectiveness is just too much for me to buy in as a QB1, but I would take a flier on Roethlisberger as my back-up in the later rounds.

 Cam Newton, NE (Bye: 6)
Height: 6’5”   Weight: 244   DOB: 1989-05-11   Age: 31
College: Auburn   Draft: 2011 Round 1 (1) 
SeasonTeamGameComp Att Yard TD INTAtt Yard TDFPtsFPts/G
2017CAR16291 492 3,302 22 16 139 754 6 364.5 22.8
2018CAR14320 471 3,395 24 13 101 488 4 338.6 24.2
2019CAR250 89 572 0 1 5 -2 0 28.4 14.2
2020 (Projected)NE 296 478 3,440 22 12 122 377 4 321.7  

Outlook: The Tom Brady era in New England is officially over. Initially, it appeared as though Bill Belichick was going to start the season with Jarred Stidham at quarterback, a 24-year old with four pass attempts in his young career.

Instead, Belichick made a wise move of adding Cam Newton to the roster on a very team-friendly "prove it" deal for a mere $1.7 million. The deal looks like a smart move for both the player and the team, as Newton has a shot to prove his worth to other teams for a potential long term deal, and the Patriots get a massive upgrade at QB and don't have to commit a ton of money or cap space.

From a fantasy perspective, Newton is a far more exciting option than Stidham, while also increasing the value of the other skill position players in the offense. The last time we saw Newton play at least 14 games was 2018 as a member of the Panthers. Although he was suffering from an injured shoulder at the time, he managed to finish as the No.7 ranked QB in FPts/G.

When healthy, Newton has always produced QB1 numbers due to the rushing production he provides. He has never rushed for fewer than four touchdowns, and he will likely add another 300 to 500 rushing yards.

Considering the fact that the Patriots have little to lose by running Newton, it would not surprise us to see him used in design runs around the goal line. If his shoulder is healed and he can complete over 60% of his passes, Newton could be a nice late-round QB with a ton of upside.

 Gardner Minshew, JAC (Bye: 7)
Height: 6’1”   Weight: 225   DOB: 1996-05-16   Age: 24
College: Washington State   Draft: 2019 Round 6 (5) 
SeasonTeamGameComp Att Yard TD INTAtt Yard TDFPtsFPts/G
2019JAC14285 470 3,271 21 6 67 344 0 282.0 20.1
2020 (Projected)JAC 320 533 3,675 23 11 70 321 2 319.9  

Outlook: Gardner Minshew was drafted in the 6th round of the NFL Draft in 2019, with newly-signed Nick Foles solidly atop the depth chart. He was most likely to sit behind Foles for a few years and learn the game on his way to being a long-term back up. How quickly fortunes change! Foles was injured in the first game of the season, and Minshew was inserted into the lineup and played well against the Chiefs. He moved the ball down the field effectively, finding open receivers surprisingly well.

By mid-season, Foles was healthy and regained the starting job. But after only two games and part of a third, they decided to turn back to Minshew, and stuck with him the rest of the season. The likelihood of that scenario playing out before the season started was incomprehensibly small. But here we are.

While Minshew only completed 60% of his passes, he was very impressive in his ability to take care of the ball, particularly for a young player. He only threw 6 interceptions to 21 touchdowns, a very rare ratio for a rookie. With the Jaguars passing on selecting a QB in the 2020 Draft, it certainly appears that they want to give Minshew a chance to become their franchise QB. He displayed above-average intelligence, solid accuracy, and good leadership. Those seem to be his best qualities, and he is not going to be mistaken for a quarterback with a huge arm.

He is in position to succeed, and could be a nice option for those going with a late-round quarterback strategy. He is surrounded by a solid skill-position cast and at least an average offensive line. It remains to be seen if he can take the next step and become more than a replacement-level player, but with your last pick it might be a worthwhile gamble.

 Joe Burrow, CIN (Bye: 9)
Height: 6’4”   Weight: 221   DOB: 1996-12-10   Age: 23
College: Louisiana State   Draft: 2020 Round 1 (1) 
SeasonTeamGameComp Att Yard TD INTAtt Yard TDFPtsFPts/G
2020 (Projected)CIN 321 518 3,727 23 17 66 259 2 316.3  

Outlook: I have fond memories of playing NCAA Football on my Playstation in the late 90's. It was a blast going through a season and seeing what kind of silly stats you could put up with your Heisman winning player. It's taken the better part of two decades, but someone finally came along and put even my best NCAA season to shame. 60-6 touchdown to interception ratio, 76% completion percentage, over 5,600 yards passing; while they seem video game-like, these are actual stats Burrow put up in likely the most impressive season by any quarterback in NCAA history. Those are just the surface numbers though. Dig deeper into things like accuracy under pressure or out of the pocket, against the backdrop of playing in the best conference in the country, and Burrow's season is one for the ages.

We know that numbers in college don't always correlate to success in the NFL. Having to learn an offense remotely with mostly informal work with teammates isn't going to help Burrow's transition to the NFL. While he possesses elite physical gifts, and maturity and poise beyond his years, there are question marks about the coaching that is tasked with his development at the next level. Zac Taylor, he of the withering branches of the McVay coaching tree, and offensive coordinator Brian Callahan didn't exactly inspire confidence in their two-win rookie season. The positive is that both guys are very young, and thus are more likely to be flexible with the scheme they put Burrow in.

With solid talent at the skill positions, an average offensive line, and a bottom tier defense, Burrow should have plenty of opportunity to compile stats in his rookie year. If his accuracy and decision making can make the jump, and he continues to be an efficient runner (368 yards and 5 touchdowns last season), Burrow's floor should be Daniel Jones from last year and it's not inconceivable he be an asset down the stretch, and a possible QB1 by season's end.

 Ryan Tannehill, TEN (Bye: 7)
Height: 6’4”   Weight: 221   DOB: 1988-07-27   Age: 32
College: Texas A&M   Draft: 2012 Round 1 (8) 
SeasonTeamGameComp Att Yard TD INTAtt Yard TDFPtsFPts/G
2018MIA11176 274 1,979 17 9 32 145 0 181.5 16.5
2019TEN12201 286 2,742 22 6 43 185 4 267.6 22.3
2020 (Projected)TEN 304 468 3,651 24 11 48 211 2 311.7  

Outlook: After being drafted 8th overall by the Dolphins in 2012, Tannehill never quite panned out in Miami. He was serviceable, and seemed to be on the verge of a breakout several times during those six seasons, but they understandably let him walk after the 2018 season.

The Titans saw something they could work with, and intelligently swooped in to sign Tannehill to a cheap, one-year deal. When Mariota again struggled over the first five weeks of the season, the Titans decided to turn to Tannehill to see what he could do. They did not regret the decision.

Tannehill had by far the best season of his career, setting career-high marks in completion percentage (70.3%) and touchdown percentage (7.7%). He threw only 6 interceptions as well, helping catapult the Titans into the playoffs - and almost to the Super Bowl.

Tannehill was signed to a new lucrative 4-year deal, presumably to do more of the same. He is surrounded by a good line, an excellent running back who keeps the defense from pinning its ears back and going after the quarterback, and an excellent young pass-catcher in A.J. Brown. Tannehill is unlikely to become a top-10 quarterback during his career, but he is a competent fantasy football option in the late rounds who even provides a bit of upside rushing the ball (185 yards and 4 touchdowns in 2019).

Although the Titans did lose right tackle Jack Conklin in free agency, which is a concern in the protection department, they did draft his replacement in the first round when they took Isaiah Wilson. If he can step in and provide adequate play as a rookie, there is no reason to believe we won't see more of the same out of Tannehill and this offense in 2020.

 Jimmy Garoppolo, SF (Bye: 11)
Height: 6’2”   Weight: 226   DOB: 1991-11-02   Age: 28
College: Eastern Illinois   Draft: 2014 Round 2 (30) 
SeasonTeamGameComp Att Yard TD INTAtt Yard TDFPtsFPts/G
2017SF6120 178 1,560 7 5 15 11 1 113.1 18.9
2018SF353 89 718 5 3 8 33 0 59.2 19.7
2019SF16329 476 3,978 27 13 46 62 1 319.1 19.9
2020 (Projected)SF 321 494 3,855 26 12 31 55 1 308.3  

Outlook: Jimmy Garoppolo is a high floor, but low upside quarterback that will likely go undrafted or as one of the final quarterbacks selected in most standard fantasy leagues this season.

Despite finishing with the NFL's second-highest-scoring offense, the 49ers threw the fourth-fewest pass attempts in 2019 and had the second-lowest pass-to-rush ratio in the league. Although the 49ers will likely be a more balanced team than most, the chances of them finishing with more rush attempts than pass attempts again in 2020 is quite low. That should mean a higher number of total pass attempts for Garoppolo here in 2020, thus a higher ceiling for fantasy production. The team still lacks a locked-in WR1 but they really didn't have one heading into 2019 either and Garoppolo still finished as a borderline QB1 for fantasy.

Still, the obvious upside problem with Garoppolo is that he lacks any sort of rushing ability. He averages fewer than five yards rushing per game throughout his career and he's rushed for just two total touchdowns in 26 starts as a pro. Those are Peyton Manning-like numbers in the running game. We've seen that running the ball at quarterback is a massive tool so it makes sense that he's going off the board as a mid-level QB2 in mock drafts.

 Philip Rivers, IND (Bye: 7)
Height: 6’5”   Weight: 228   DOB: 1981-12-08   Age: 38
College: North Carolina State   Draft: 2004 Round 1 (4) 
SeasonTeamGameComp Att Yard TD INTAtt Yard TDFPtsFPts/G
2017LAC16360 575 4,515 28 10 18 -2 0 337.6 21.1
2018LAC16347 508 4,308 32 12 18 7 0 344.1 21.5
2019LAC16390 591 4,615 23 20 12 29 0 325.7 20.4
2020 (Projected)IND 353 543 4,180 24 16 12 19 0 306.9  

Outlook: Philip Rivers had a poor season in 2019, with the lowest touchdown percentage of his career (3.9% touchdowns per attempt). He threw for only 23 touchdowns on 591 attempts, and even worse, he threw for 20 interceptions. On a Chargers roster loaded with skill-position talent, many saw this poor season as the dreaded end of the road for Rivers.

However, Rivers seems intent on proving that sentiment wrong. He signed a one-year deal with the Colts this offseason, and stated that the Colts' chances to win a Super Bowl swayed his decision. He also expressed that he was "aggravated" with the whispers around the league that he was done. There may be some signs that the talk of his demise is misguided.

Although his low touchdown rate and high interception rate were disturbing, he did complete 66% of his passes for over 4,600 yards, good for 7.8 yards per attempt. Those are respectable numbers, and do lead one to believe that he has something left in the tank. The biggest negative on Rivers has always been his penchant for throwing the ball up for grabs downfield, which only works when you are throwing to the right spot and when you have players capable of winning such "jump balls." Mistakes in such scenarios are a major chunk of his interceptions, and there is a chance the Colts coaching staff can get Rivers to take what is there instead of going for the home run so often.

Rivers will not have the arsenal of talent he had in Los Angeles last season, but he will have a very capable group of skill players. Both Taylor and Mack will take some pressure off with their ability to run the ball, and the protection Rivers will get from the Colts' offensive line should be an improvement over the Chargers' line. He has T.Y. Hilton as his new Keenan Allen, rookie Michael Pittman Jr. as his new Mike Williams, and Jack Doyle as his new Hunter Henry. His new group certainly has the talent to help Rivers succeed, but the success of the unit will likely come down to whether Rivers can make the right decisions and limit mistakes. His fantasy value will also depend on his ability to turn drives into points, and limit his interceptions.

 Baker Mayfield, CLE (Bye: 9)
Height: 6’1”   Weight: 215   DOB: 1995-04-14   Age: 25
College: Oklahoma   Draft: 2018 Round 1 (1) 
SeasonTeamGameComp Att Yard TD INTAtt Yard TDFPtsFPts/G
2018CLE14310 486 3,725 27 14 39 131 0 307.4 22.0
2019CLE16317 534 3,827 22 21 28 141 3 311.5 19.5
2020 (Projected)CLE 323 522 3,756 24 15 28 148 1 304.6  

Outlook: Mayfield, and frankly the entire Cleveland offense was the subject of great debate this time last offseason. On paper the offense should have been one of the most explosive, dynamic units in the NFL, but in reality, they struggled to get out of their own way most of the season. The passing game lacked any sync, the offense line was a nightmare, and Mayfield took a step back in his development. All the strife and dysfunction led to the gutting of the front office, and the firing of Head Coach Freddie Kitchens and his staff. With a new scheme, new administration and uncertain offseason, what can we expect from Mayfield as he enters an important 3rd season as a pro?

Cleveland invested heavily in the offensive line this offseason, drafting Jedrick Wills from Alabama, and committing $42 million dollars to tackle Jack Conklin. Throw in another $44 million for tight end Austin Hooper, and you can see the Browns are serious about upgrading the foundation around Mayfield. But will it be enough to get him back on track? I guess it better be! His 22-21 touchdown to interception ratio was the worst among starting quarterbacks last season, and was a problem nearly the entire year. Was it the result of a brash young guy being overconfident, or trying too hard? Maybe, but unless Mayfield can figure out a way to bring his game under control, this entire offense is going to be inconsistent.

The funky offseason certainly won't do this team any favors, but I do think Stefanski has a chance to get Mayfield back on track. Expect the former Vikings offensive coordinator to bring a play-action based attack that will fit extremely well with Cleveland's personnel. The threat of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt must be respected, and combined with the offseason acquisitions, should help lower the pressure Mayfield will be under. Stefanski helped Kirk Cousins have three incredibly efficient seasons while in Minnesota, and should be able to do the same for Mayfield. I really like the former No.1 overall pick at his current QB2 price. He may get off to a slow start, but if he can get comfortable with the offense, Mayfield has the talent and weapons to return some great value.

 Kirk Cousins, MIN (Bye: 7)
Height: 6’3”   Weight: 214   DOB: 1988-08-19   Age: 32
College: Michigan State   Draft: 2012 Round 4 (7) 
SeasonTeamGameComp Att Yard TD INTAtt Yard TDFPtsFPts/G
2017WAS16347 540 4,093 27 13 49 179 4 354.6 22.2
2018MIN16425 606 4,298 30 10 44 123 1 353.2 22.1
2019MIN15307 444 3,603 26 6 31 63 1 296.5 19.8
2020 (Projected)MIN 348 520 3,845 25 9 28 74 1 305.7  

Outlook: After years of making a fantasy living off of high passing volume, Cousins' numbers plummeted across the board last year as the Vikings committed to running the ball more and Adam Thielen missed six games with a hamstring injury. His attempts, yardage and touchdown totals were the fewest since he became a full-time starter in 2015.

A clear QB2 for most of the year last year, the bottom really fell out for Cousins from Week 14 on. He barely scraped together double digit points, and in a loss to the 49ers in the Divisional Round he could barely complete a pass past the line of scrimmage, rolling up a sad 6-yards-per-attempt. So while the lower passing numbers got the Vikings to the second round of the playoffs, they still fell short of a conference final, and Kirk's fantasy value went into the toilet. Can we expect a repeat or rebound in 2020?

This funky offseason should be manageable for the Viking offense. NFL lifer Gary Kubiak enters his 25th season in the League, and was the Minnesota Assistant Head Coach and Offensive Advisor last season so you know he had a big hand in crafting the offense. Now built around the legs of Dalvin Cook (more on him later), Cousins and the Vikings do have a gaping hole at receiver with Pro Bowler Stefon Diggs shipped off to Buffalo and replaced by rookie Justin Jefferson. How quickly Cousins and Jefferson can develop chemistry with little work prior to training camp will be big. Diggs was a deep home run threat, while Jefferson is more of a surgical slot receiver, so Cousins is sure to miss the nearly 18 yards per reception Diggs gave him last year. Another factor throwing a wrench into any analysis for Cousins in the status of Dalvin Cook. Currently threatening a hold-out unless he gets a new deal, the entire offense gets a downgrade if he misses games.

There are simply too many moving parts for me to trust Cousins as a QB1 this year. With Diggs and former coordinator Kevin Stefanski both gone, and a rookie being counted on for a big role, it's hard for me to envision Cousins greatly surpassing his 2019 numbers. Short of Cook holding out for the season, or injuries ravaging the backs, I think 450 passing attempts is right where Head Coach Mike Zimmer wants to be.