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Regular Season, Updated: 9/4/19

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 Ben Roethlisberger, PIT (Bye: 7)
13
Height: 6’5”   Weight: 241   DOB: 1982-03-02   Age: 37
College: -   Draft: 2004 Round 1 (11) 
SeasonTeamGameComp Att Yard TD INTAtt Yard TDFPtsFPts/G
2016PIT14328 509 3,819 29 13 16 14 1 314.4 22.5
2017PIT15360 561 4,251 28 14 28 47 0 329.3 22.0
2018PIT16452 675 5,129 34 16 31 98 3 420.3 26.3
2019 (Projected)PIT 386 585 4,391 29 14 11 64 1 348.0  

Outlook: Roethlisberger has typically remained on the fringes of high level fantasy quarterbacks. He's someone you always begrudgingly draft, but usually end up happy with the final production. If you waited on Ben last year, then you got some fantastic value, as he easily had his best statistical season as a pro, throwing for career highs in yardage and touchdowns. It's not often players have their best season in their 15th year, but Big Ben did just that despite not having Le'Veon Bell for the season, and dealing with a perpetually irritated Antionio Brown.

For all the might and majesty Ben had as one of fantasy's best quarterbacks, the Steelers missed the playoffs and then shipped out one of the best receivers of all time. With Bell and Brown gone, the Steelers offense now revolves solely around the final Killer B. Can Roethlisberger replicate the big numbers with a very talented, but inexperienced group of skill position players? I feel very comfortable in saying that a repeat of last year's numbers is borderline impossible. For one, Ben played a full 16 games for only the third time in his career, and no one is going to make me believe that removing Brown from the offense is somehow going to make the Steelers better. Yes, the offensive line is still one of the best in the league, but there isn't a stud veteran (Brown, or Bell) that this team can feed the ball to. I think this offense hits some rough spots as their young guys learn to deal with the increased attention and pressure and Ben regresses statistically as he's guided into a more conservative gameplan. With Brown gone, I think the Steelers play more "team" ball and lean on the ground game and defense more than they have in the recent past.


 Kyler Murray, ARI (Bye: 12)
14
Height: 5’10”   Weight: 207   DOB: 1997-08-07   Age: 22
College: Oklahoma   Draft: 2019 Round 1 (1) 
SeasonTeamGameComp Att Yard TD INTAtt Yard TDFPtsFPts/G
2019 (Projected)ARI 305 508 3,555 22 13 117 595 3 343.3  

Outlook: There may not have been a bigger change in offensive philosophy this offseason than what took place in Arizona. A season after drafting Josh Rosen in the top 10, the Cardinals have already opted to move on. They traded Rosen away and selected quarterback Kyler Murray at the No.1 overall spot in this year's draft. Without a quality veteran on the roster, Murray will be given the reigns to start right away and that, combined with a head coach change, will almost certainly mean that Arizona's offense looks completely different in 2019 than it did in 2018.

The Cardinals ran the second-fewest plays per game in 2018 as the team simply hoped to win games based on defense and running the football. That won't be the case this season. Under new head coach Kliff Kingsbury, the Cardinals offense will almost certainly be near the league lead in total offensive plays run and that should benefit every member of this offense, particularly Murray.

Everyone knows that Murray is an athletic freak who is capable of putting up big numbers as a runner, but his ability as a passer seems to almost be forgotten by some fantasy analysts. Yes, it's true that college production does not always equal NFL production, but we saw Baker Mayfield put up some very impressive rookie numbers after coming out of the same offense that Murray did at Oklahoma. It's also worth noting that Murray actually had a slightly higher QB rating than Mayfield did in each of their final collegiate seasons. Both quarterbacks put up record-breaking numbers, but the difference is that while Mayfield was stuck in an archaic offense in Cleveland, Murray will be running a relatively similar offense in Arizona to the one that he and Mayfield ran in college at Oklahoma. That, combined with Murray's running ability, makes him one of the most interesting, if not polarizing fantasy quarterbacks for the 2019 season. It's not often that a rookie is able to step in and produce top-12 fantasy numbers at quarterback in the NFL, but that is well within his range of outcomes.

The only fair criticism that doubters seem to be throwing onto Murray is in regards to his size. At 5'10" and 207 lbs., Murray will be one of the smallest quarterbacks in the league. That's not such a big deal at the college level where the players tend to be smaller on average, but it is a real concern in the NFL. If the Arizona offensive line plays as poorly as it did in 2018 then there is real concern that Murray could take some serious damage behind center which would obviously limit his upside and give him an increased chance for major injury.

From a fantasy standpoint, though, there may not be a better fantasy value than Murray, especially in normal single-quarterback leagues where we can drop him and simply stream the position if he were to get injured. Murray is currently being drafted within the top 10 at the position but his upside makes him a great value in most leagues.


 Dak Prescott, DAL (Bye: 8)
15
Height: 6’2”   Weight: 226   DOB: 1993-07-29   Age: 26
College: Mississippi State   Draft: 2016 Round 4 (37) 
SeasonTeamGameComp Att Yard TD INTAtt Yard TDFPtsFPts/G
2016DAL16311 459 3,667 23 4 57 282 6 339.6 21.2
2017DAL16308 490 3,325 22 13 57 357 6 326.0 20.4
2018DAL16356 526 3,885 22 8 75 305 6 348.8 21.8
2019 (Projected)DAL 337 526 3,789 22 10 68 327 6 346.2  

Outlook: Prescott has been the model of consistency in his three seasons with the Cowboys, with an average of 22 passing touchdowns and 3,500 passing yards to go along with six rushing touchdowns. You can bank on around six rushing touchdowns based on the fact that he posted that number in each of the last three campaigns.

His 21.8 fantasy points per game tied with Tom Brady in 2018, while just a tenth of a point behind Russell Wilson, a player who is slated to be drafted well ahead of Prescott this summer.

Prescott's consistent rushing numbers, especially the touchdown production, makes him a valuable fantasy asset and makes up for the fact that he has yet to throw for more than 23 TDs in a year. A full offseason working with Amari Cooper and a refreshing new offensive play caller in Kellen Moore could be the formula Dak needs to have a breakout passing TD season.

Despite these changes, the Cowboys are a run-first team with the goal of using their high-priced offensive line to maul the opposition and create holes for Ezekiel Elliott. For this reason, Dak will likely be drafted as a QB2 in most formats.


 Tom Brady, NE (Bye: 10)
16
Height: 6’4”   Weight: 225   DOB: 1977-08-03   Age: 42
College: Michigan   Draft: 2000 Round 6 (33) 
SeasonTeamGameComp Att Yard TD INTAtt Yard TDFPtsFPts/G
2016NE12291 432 3,554 28 2 28 64 0 296.1 24.7
2017NE16385 581 4,576 32 8 25 28 0 359.6 22.5
2018NE16375 570 4,355 29 11 23 35 2 349.3 21.8
2019 (Projected)NE 373 565 4,240 29 10 6 32 1 337.2  

Outlook: Tom Brady is a first-ballot Hall of Famer. He owns nearly every record in the book and is widely considered to be the greatest quarterback of all time. But for fantasy purposes, the days of Brady being a QB1 appear to be over, as the Patriots continue to evolve into a run-oriented offense.

As the 17th-ranked quarterback in fantasy points per game, with 29 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, Brady performed on par with Dak Prescott, Philip Rivers, and Russell Wilson, but he was nearly five points per game behind the elite performers at the position. Although Brady continues to play excellent football well into his 40s, the offensive scheme for the Patriots is not set up to require Brady to throw the ball a ton. The Pats will look to play solid defense, run the ball effectively, and take apart defenses with a short and accurate passing attack.

For fantasy purposes, Brady's floor does make him a nice, reliable option to pair with a more volatile option like Jameis Winston or Kyler Murray.


 Kirk Cousins, MIN (Bye: 12)
17
Height: 6’3”   Weight: 214   DOB: 1988-08-19   Age: 31
College: Michigan State   Draft: 2012 Round 4 (7) 
SeasonTeamGameComp Att Yard TD INTAtt Yard TDFPtsFPts/G
2016WAS16406 606 4,917 25 12 34 100 4 379.9 23.7
2017WAS16347 540 4,093 27 13 49 179 4 354.6 22.2
2018MIN16425 606 4,298 30 10 44 123 1 353.2 22.1
2019 (Projected)MIN 373 557 4,065 27 12 26 145 2 337.8  

Outlook: Kirk Cousins in THE example I think of when I consider the sheer depth of the quarterback position in fantasy. In his last few seasons he was a stat compiler on some poor teams, and he was largely the same during his first year in Minnesota. Despite back-to-back top-10 finishes at the position, Cousins hasn't proven to be a difference maker that can get his offenses over the top. The Vikings signed him to an unprecedented fully guaranteed deal, and on paper it looks they got their money's worth, but the offense lacked a true identity, and faltered greatly down the stretch, wasting a strong defensive performance.

The offensive dysfunction started with coordinator John DeFillipo, who irked his boss Mike Zimmer by failing to establish a consistent run game. Things came to a head following an embarrassing 21-7 road loss to the Seahawks where DeFillipo was fired and Kevin Stefanski, a long-time Vikings position coach and assistant, took over. Following the marching orders to get the run game going, Stefanski had Cousins dial up fewer passes during the final three games than he did during any 3-game stretch of the 2018 season. Despite finishing 2-1 in those games, the Vikings missed the playoffs.

As Stefanski was retained as full-time coordinator for 2019, it's important to consider what this means for Cousins' fantasy value. Cousins has used high volume to rack up big yardage and touchdown totals the last several years, finishing 4th, 4th, and 5th in total pass attempts. The Minnesota backfield would have to be ravaged by injury for this to happen again, and in that scenario I can see Zimmer spontaneously combusting on the field. The Vikings are going back to old school Black and Blue division football in 2019, and Cousins is going to have to be ultra-efficient to approach top-5 numbers again. With great talent around him he's still a QB1 for owners looking to fade the position, but I don't think he offers near the same value he has in the past.


 Lamar Jackson, BAL (Bye: 8)
18
Height: 6’3”   Weight: 200   DOB: 1997-01-07   Age: 22
College: Louisville   Draft: 2018 Round 1 (32) 
SeasonTeamGameComp Att Yard TD INTAtt Yard TDFPtsFPts/G
2018BAL1699 170 1,201 6 3 147 695 5 183.6 11.5
2019 (Projected)BAL 251 425 3,016 18 10 170 848 6 343.6  

Outlook: Lamar Jackson ended up playing exactly like many people thought he would when he was finally inserted into the lineup in Week 11. The Ravens were running on fumes after a three-game losing streak. Joe Flacco was hurt, the offense was mired in the muck, and Baltimore knew that inserting Jackson was the only chance they had to dig out of a middling season. Jackson not only gave them a spark, he displayed all the elite playmaking skills that earned him a Heisman Trophy, and almost single handedly willed the Ravens to an upset of the Chargers in the wildcard round.

As expected, Jackson played like a quarterback that was picked 30th in the 1st round instead of 3rd. He showed little as a passer, struggling with accuracy and touch. But what he lacked throwing the ball he more than made up for on the ground. He was able to take advantage of some talent deficient defenses as he scored 18+ fantasy points in all seven of his regular season starts. With 17 rushing attempts a game, and a total of 697 yards and four touchdowns, he saw near RB1-type usage down the stretch.

Now that the Ravens have begun to build this offense around him with the hiring of coordinator Greg Roman and the offensive additions via the draft and free agency, can we expect these numbers to continue? I'm going have to say no. Although he was a dynamite weapon, we've seen young quarterbacks have success running the ball early in their careers. But no matter the talent or ability level, running a quarterback 15+ times a game isn't a viable long-term strategy. Teams either begin to adjust their strategy, or injuries occur. Either way, Jackson struggled mightily for much of the game against the Chargers before flashing late in the 2nd half. He was held to a season low 9 attempts for 54 yards and his erratic passing was a reason the team was down for most of the game in the first place. There is no doubt in my mind Jackson is going to continue to give fits to defenses, but I'm not sure he can develop enough as a passer in one offseason to be a realistic fantasy starter.


 Mitchell Trubisky, CHI (Bye: 6)
19
Height: 6’2”   Weight: 222   DOB: 1994-08-20   Age: 25
College: North Carolina   Draft: 2017 Round 1 (2) 
SeasonTeamGameComp Att Yard TD INTAtt Yard TDFPtsFPts/G
2017CHI12196 330 2,193 7 7 41 248 2 174.5 14.5
2018CHI14289 434 3,223 24 12 68 421 3 317.3 22.7
2019 (Projected)CHI 329 514 3,755 26 11 66 385 2 342.3  

Outlook: Freed from the shackles of an archaic offensive, Trubisky had a breakout statistical season in 2018 behind the creativity of head coach Matt Nagy. The Bears cooked up one of the spiciest offensive gameplans throughout the year utilizing a dazzling array of formations and misdirections. Trubisky's stats improved tremendously across the board, upping his completion percentage by a significant amount, accounting for 27 total touchdowns, and even adding a surprising 421 yards rushing. Despite some uneven play throughout the year (still showed a tendency to make risky throws into coverage), Trubisky led an exciting Chicago team to within a doinked kick of a deep playoff run.

Entering his 3rd pro season, and 2nd with Nagy's offense, I expect Trubisky to continue to improve on his numbers. Nearly two decades ago Donovan McNabb had a great year in an offense like this for Andy Reid, and Trubisky reminds me of a young McNabb. I felt at times last season Nagy and the offensive staff tried to hide Trubisky's shortcomings with a funky offense, and while he'll likely never be a totally refined pocket passer, he's a terrific athlete, has a cannon for an arm, and seems to have the moldable talent to eventually be the centerpiece of the offense. Remember, this was a guy who only started 10 games in college, and has just 26 more in the NFL. With continued coaching, and better scheme mastery, Trubisky has a chance to flirt with QB1 numbers this season. I'm probably a little higher on him than most, but I think the Chicago defense will still get a ton of takeaways, giving the offense more chances. If he can cut down on the turnovers of his own, and play more consistently past twenty yards, Trubisky could be a very sneaky QB pick for those owners who want to fade the position.


 Jimmy Garoppolo, SF (Bye: 4)
20
Height: 6’2”   Weight: 226   DOB: 1991-11-02   Age: 27
College: Eastern Illinois   Draft: 2014 Round 2 (30) 
SeasonTeamGameComp Att Yard TD INTAtt Yard TDFPtsFPts/G
2016NE643 64 504 4 0 10 6 0 41.8 7.0
2017SF6120 178 1,560 7 5 15 11 1 113.1 18.9
2018SF353 89 718 5 3 8 33 0 59.2 19.7
2019 (Projected)SF 311 510 3,522 21 15 35 76 0 267.7  

Outlook: One of the biggest stories in the league heading into the 2018 season was the 49ers' acquisition and subsequent financial investment in quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo. The team traded for him during the 2017 season and the entire offense was visibly and statistically much better under his leadership. Many fantasy experts predicted a breakout from Garoppolo in 2018, but a torn ACL near the end of the 49ers' Week 3 game against the Chiefs put an end to that before it ever really began.

The 49ers were just 1-2 when Garoppolo went out and things only got worse and they went on to win just four games on the season. It's worth noting that Garoppolo was not particularly effective as a fantasy quarterback in the games he did play, never reaching even 275 yards through the air with just five total touchdowns and three interceptions in his three starts. Not only that, but Garoppolo is notably one of the weakest contributors in the running game, having rushed just eight times for 33 yards in his three games. In fact, he tore his ACL on his only rush of 10 or more yards on the season.

Given the unexpected absence of Garoppolo, the 49ers passing offense wasn't actually all that bad, at least in terms of yards, in 2018. C.J. Beathard was given the first opportunity and he passed for an average of 250 yards per game while throwing eight touchdown passes in five games. Nick Mullens was up next, who averaged 285 passing yards per game, but he also threw 10 interceptions in only eight starts. Both passers took far too many sacks, but the overall yardage numbers really weren't that bad. In fact, both passers were better than Garoppolo on a per-game basis.

Still, Garoppolo's return to the lineup should be an upgrade across the board for the team. The 49ers invested in Garoppolo for a reason and it's obvious that Kyle Shanahan sees something in him. His skills are certainly better than Bearthard or Mullens', but it's still hard to completely buy into this offense given their relative lack of experienced weapons out wide.

The team's most experienced wide receiver is Marquise Goodwin, who has failed to reach even 500 receiving yards in all but one of his six NFL seasons. The other top wide receivers, Dante Pettis and rookie Deebo Samuel, have caught a combined three regular season passes from Garoppolo. They do have some of the best pass catching weapons in the league at tight end and running back, so look for the 49ers offense to take a step forward from where it was at in 2019, particularly in the way of efficiency. Garoppolo is a much more skilled passer than either Bearthard or Mullens and that should translate into fewer mistakes, which should in turn lead to fewer turnovers and more points for the San Francisco offense.

Garoppolo was one of the hottest names in fantasy heading into the 2019 and he's certainly cooled off this offseason as he's now being drafted outside the top-15 at the position. While his injury recovery is something to be a bit concerned about, that gigantic drop off in perceived fantasy value seems unjustified. If anything, the 49ers are more stacked offensively this season than they were heading into 2018, especially when you consider the breakout season that tight end George Kittle saw even without Garoppolo behind center. While his ADP of being a top-10 QB heading into 2018 was probably too high given his lack of rushing ceiling, Garoppolo does have the requisite skills and offensive system to make himself into a QB1 this season. Taking him as a high floor, low-risk QB2 to pair with a higher-risk QB1 like Kyler Murray or Jameis Winston seems like a wise option.


 Josh Allen, BUF (Bye: 6)
21
Height: 6’5”   Weight: 233   DOB: 1996-05-21   Age: 23
College: Wyoming   Draft: 2018 Round 1 (7) 
SeasonTeamGameComp Att Yard TD INTAtt Yard TDFPtsFPts/G
2018BUF12169 320 2,074 10 12 89 631 8 254.8 21.2
2019 (Projected)BUF 268 479 3,256 17 14 113 677 4 322.5  

Outlook: The Bills used the seventh pick of the 2018 NFL Draft on Josh Allen, the big-armed quarterback from the University of Wyoming known for impressive athleticism for a big man, and a cannon for an arm that is rivaled only by Patrick Mahomes.

Allen flashed his brilliance at times with the Wyoming Cowboys in the Mountain West Conference. He also flashed questionable decision making and a penchant for holding on to the ball too long.

Not surprisingly, Allen threw for more interceptions than touchdowns, while completing just 53% of his passes for a rookie. But he did provide a ton of fantasy value for owners willing to deal with the negative plays, with 631 rushing yards and eight rushing touchdowns.

Don't let his 21st overall finish in fantasy points per game fool you. Allen finished the final five games of the 2018 season as the No.1 QB with 28.8 fantasy points per game, two full points per game higher than Mahomes.

When you consider the additions at wide receiver, with Cole Beasley providing an outlet over the middle and John Brown joining Robert Foster as a legit deep threat, you could make a case for Allen being one of the better fantasy values this season based on his late-round draft cost.


 Derek Carr, OAK (Bye: 6)
22
Height: 6’2”   Weight: 214   DOB: 1991-03-28   Age: 28
College: Fresno State   Draft: 2014 Round 2 (4) 
SeasonTeamGameComp Att Yard TD INTAtt Yard TDFPtsFPts/G
2016OAK15356 559 3,933 28 6 38 69 0 315.6 21.0
2017OAK15323 515 3,496 22 13 23 66 0 269.4 18.0
2018OAK16381 553 4,049 19 10 24 47 1 289.2 18.1
2019 (Projected)OAK 364 569 4,154 25 12 11 59 0 313.6  

Outlook: Veteran quarterback Derek Carr has to be one of the NFL offseason's biggest winners as the team completely revamped their wide receiver group for the better. The biggest addition is obviously one of the league's top overall players, Antonio Brown, who comes to the team after a Hall of Fame-level career in Pittsburgh. At 31 years old once the season starts, Brown is certainly past his physical prime, but he's still performing at an elite level and will easily step in and be the best pass catcher Carr has ever had the pleasure of throwing the ball to. In addition, the Raiders added Tyrell Williams from division rival Los Angeles, along with veterans Ryan Grant and J.J. Nelson and Clemson rookie Hunter Renfrow.

It wasn't all good news this offseason, however, as Carr did lose tight end Jared Cook, who led the team with 896 yards and six touchdowns, as well as Jordy Nelson who finished the 2018 season strong after a very slow start.

It seems like a long time ago, but it's worth considering that Carr was coming off of offseason surgery for a broken leg heading into the 2018 season, so he wasn't exactly at full strength to start the year. He finished 18th in total scoring at the position, but just 25th out of the 37 QB's who started at least eight games in points per game.

Carr avoided the Raiders drafting a QB, but this is likely still a "make or break" year for him. He won't be drafted in most fantasy drafts, but he's the kind of player who does have the upside to be a valuable fantasy asset in two-quarterback formats or as a streaming option in single-quarterback formats.


 Jacoby Brissett, IND (Bye: 6)
23
Height: 6’4”   Weight: 231   DOB: 1992-12-11   Age: 26
College: North Carolina State   Draft: 2016 Round 3 (29) 
SeasonTeamGameComp Att Yard TD INTAtt Yard TDFPtsFPts/G
2016NE334 55 400 0 0 16 83 1 34.3 11.4
2017IND16276 469 3,098 13 7 64 260 4 256.9 16.1
2018IND42 4 2 0 0 7 -7 0 -0.6 -0.2
2019 (Projected)IND 327 511 3,785 23 13 44 249 2 318.2  

 Matthew Stafford, DET (Bye: 5)
24
Height: 6’2”   Weight: 232   DOB: 1988-02-07   Age: 31
College: Georgia   Draft: 2009 Round 1 (1) 
SeasonTeamGameComp Att Yard TD INTAtt Yard TDFPtsFPts/G
2016DET16388 594 4,327 24 10 37 207 2 345.1 21.6
2017DET16371 565 4,446 29 10 29 98 0 348.1 21.8
2018DET16367 555 3,777 21 11 25 71 0 280.0 17.5
2019 (Projected)DET 355 538 3,925 25 10 33 100 1 312.3  

Outlook: If you've been reading my player outlooks for any stretch of time you will notice I enjoy breaking down the quarterbacks, with Stafford being one of my favorites to examine. While his play on the field hasn't equated to many wins for Detroit, he's always been an overlooked fantasy asset. Unfortunately I took little pleasure in watching the Lions offense last year, and preparing for this breakdown has been equally rough.

Breakdown is a great word to describe Stafford. Despite being one of the toughest sonova-guns in the NFL (he essentially played several games with a broken back last year), the constant beatings he's taken have begun to take their toll. He played much of the season with lingering back and upper body injuries and it showed in his play. He accounted for his fewest total touchdowns (21) since his second year in the league, and he simply couldn't overcome the myriad of injuries suffered by the line, backs, and receivers. Losing the reliable Golden Tate via in-season trade seemed to be the death knell on Stafford's season, as his post trade numbers were significantly worse without his slot-security blanket. The dysfunction on offense was enough for the Lions to make a change, going with the well-traveled Darrell Bevell as the new OC. Bevell comes to the Lions after a highly successful seven-year stint with the Seahawks. Bevell is a safe, unexciting hire for the Lions, and someone who will work to transform this offense into a run-first, pass later philosophy.

I can't really argue with what the Lions are trying to do on offense. Sure, it seems like a backward philosophy in today's NFL, but what has the high flying, throw the football 600 times strategy really gotten the Lions anyway? While the Lions woes have been great for Stafford's fantasy football value, he's been beaten down. With the signing of C.J. Anderson, and the healthy return of second year back Kerryon Johnson, I can see Stafford's pass attempts come down, perhaps to some of the lowest in his career. The reality is the days of top-7 value are gone, and the best we can hope from Stafford is as a decent QB2.