Outlook: There have never been any questions about McCaffrey's talent. He entered the NFL as the eighth overall pick back in 2017, and he averaged 1,814 yards and 13 TDs over his first three years. It was the injuries that created a fog over his fantasy value with the Stanford product appearing in just three games in 2020 and seven the following season. It devalued him enough that the Panthers were willing to take pennies on the dollar from San Francisco when they traded him in 2022.

Since joining the 49ers in October 2022, McCaffrey has appeared in 27 of 28 possible games (he, like many of the team's playmakers, was held out of Week 18 this last year), during which time he has averaged 119.7 yards per game and visited the end zone 31 times. Not only has he stayed on the field, but he's also been a workhorse, completely marginalizing the team's depth at the position and finishing second in the NFL in carries (272) last year. Although he doesn't get targeted on the same level as he was in Carolina, the veteran remains arguably the top pass-catching back in the NFL.

Entering his age-28 season, Run CMC should still be in his prime, and coming off consecutive injury-free campaigns you can feel comfortable downgrading his injury risk. Given his consistency, involvement in one of the league's top offenses, and talent, McCaffrey appears to be the clear choice for the No. 1 overall pick in most drafts.

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Outlook: Bijan Robinson was arguably the largest victim in Arthur Smith's regime. After being an elite prospect from the University of Texas, Robinson was selected by the Falcons with the 8th overall pick. He then landed in a timeshare with Tyler Allgeier and Cordarrelle Patterson. However, reports indicate that this timeshare will be dissolved and Robinson is in line for a "Christian McCaffrey-like" role. A large workload would allow Robinson to produce at an appropriate fantasy level relative to his talent.

Robinson passed the eye test as a rookie, regularly shaking defenders and making jaw-dropping plays. This was backed up by his 0.28 missed tackles forced per attempt, the 4th highest rate among RBs. The only thing holding him back was his perplexing usage under Smith. With a new coaching staff, it's wheels up for Robinson who will likely be one of the first couple of running backs selected in your draft.

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Outlook: Breece Hall is recognized as one of the league's most dynamic running backs, finishing the previous season as RB2 and a true difference-maker at the position. Leading all running backs with 95 targets, Hall secured 76 catches for 591 yards, topping the league in both categories in 2023. He also contributed four touchdowns in the passing game. Although his receiving stats were somewhat inflated by a 16-target game against the Commanders in Week 15, Hall's performance remained impressive even without that game, keeping him at the top in most running back receiving metrics. If not for Christian McCaffrey's extraordinary numbers in San Francisco, Hall would likely be the frontrunner for the RB1 spot in drafts this season.

Now set to play alongside Aaron Rodgers, a quarterback known for his highly effective check-down passes, Hall stands to benefit significantly. Throughout his career, Rodgers has consistently boosted the performance of running backs in the passing game, as seen with Aaron Jones being targeted 68, 63, 65, and 72 times during his tenure as Green Bay's primary back alongside Rodgers. That number fell to just 43 targets for Jones in 2023 as he played alongside Jordan Love. Given Hall's superior receiving skills compared to Jones, his targets are unlikely to decrease substantially in 2024, adding to his nice, high floor in PPR formats.

With Rodgers at the helm, the Jets' offense is expected to improve, potentially enhancing Hall's rushing opportunities as well. Despite his talent, Hall has only scored nine rushing touchdowns over his first two seasons, primarily due to the Jets' struggling offense, which often necessitated a focus on the passing game. Increased offensive efficiency should theoretically lead to more red zone opportunities and, consequently, more goal-line rush attempts for Hall in 2024.

Overall, Hall is one of the safest picks this season, having already proven himself as one of the league's best running backs in a poor offense. With an anticipated improvement in the Jets' offensive performance, Hall has a strong chance to exceed his previous achievements and solidify his status as an elite fantasy running back.

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Outlook: Last season was an up-and-down year for Jonathan Taylor and his fantasy owners. The season was riddled with contract disputes, injuries, and inconsistent production. Taylor started the season on the PUP list (ankle) and did not appear in a game until Week 5. He also missed a stretch of games late in the season due to a thumb injury. When he was on the field, he provided some productive weeks but was relatively inconsistent. He appeared in 10 games, finishing as a weekly RB1 four times. However, these RB1 finishes never came in consecutive weeks.

With a new contract and injuries behind him, Taylor will have a fresh start and is being drafted as the RB5 in most formats. I am hesitant to take him at this price, but let's take a look at the good and the bad of Taylor's 2024 outlook.

Starting with the good, Taylor has proven to be a quality rusher who can churn out yards when necessary but is also capable of a house call at any moment. The Colts will be a high-paced, run-first offense and will feature Taylor as an offensive focal point. He should see plenty of rushing work and will have every opportunity to rack up yards on the ground.

Looking to the bad, Taylor may have a hard time seeing high-value targets and red zone touches. Taylor has never been highly utilized or effective as a pass catcher and in an offense with Anthony Richardson as the QB, don't expect a bump in usage as a receiver. Speaking of Richardson, we just discussed his effectiveness as a rusher near the goal-line. Taylor will certainly see work in this area of the field, but the Colts would be foolish not to give goal-line rushes to Richardson. There is a path for Taylor to pay off at his RB5 price with volume, but the red flags are very apparent.

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Outlook: In Week 1 last year, Cam Akers ran the ball 22 times to Williams' 15. It seemed to be a split befitting their respective statuses as RB1 (Akers) and RB2 (Williams). On to Week 2, right? Wrong. Akers never suited up for the Rams again, eventually being traded to the Vikings, and Williams took over as the lead back. While an ankle injury would put him on the shelf for a month, the Notre Dame product proved he could be a workhorse when healthy.

In six games after returning from injury, Williams averaged 25 touches per game, resulting in 131.5 yards per contest -- he topped 100 total yards in each game -- and eight total touchdowns. Like most of the skill players, Williams was held out in Week 18, and he wasn't nearly as effective in the Wild Card loss to Detroit (70 yards, 0 TDs), but that had more to do with fewer opportunities (14 touches).

For as good as Williams has looked on the field, there are viable questions about his durability after spending time on Injured Reserve with ankle injuries in each of his first two seasons. He also missed part of the offseason program his rookie year with a broken foot. In terms of production, you're looking at a potential top-five fantasy RB, even with the arrival of Blake Corum. There's risk here, though, so make sure your depth is solid if you're investing in Williams to be your No.1 back.

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Outlook: Despite finishing as the RB11 overall in fantasy in 2023, Cook ranked as just RB19 on a points-per-game basis, highlighting the reality that much of his final ranking had more to do with him simply staying healthy than it did him delivering elite fantasy production. Cook has been touted as a proficient pass-catching back, but he ranked 17th at the running back position in receptions with just 44 throughout the season. Cook did, however, manage to join the elite club of running backs with over 1,000 rushing yards, finishing fourth with 1,122 yards on the ground. Despite this impressive feat, he only scored two rushing touchdowns, suggesting potential positive regression in the upcoming season.

The addition of Ray Davis in the Bills' roster could impact Cook's red zone usage, given Davis's notable collegiate success with 20 touchdowns in his final season. While Cook is expected to maintain a solid floor, his scarcity in touchdowns may limit his spike weeks. Nonetheless, with potential increased opportunities near the goal line and sustained health, he remains a reliable mid-to-high-end RB2 and could even remain a low-end RB1 in 2024 if he's able to stay healthy again.

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Outlook: Rachaad White was one of fantasy football's biggest breakouts in 2023. He emerged from the running back dead zone to deliver an RB4 season (overall) in PPR leagues. White's dominant fantasy performance came on the back of massive volume, racking up over 300 touches including 64 receptions -- 4th among all running backs.

White dominated the Tampa Bay backfield in every capacity. He handed 67 percent of rushing attempts, ran 383 routes (2nd among RBs), and received nearly every goal-line carry. At a volume-driven position, this is all you can from your fantasy RB.

Heading into 2024, White is a highly debated player. Sure, he delivered a high-end fantasy season but he didn't look the best doing it. He struggled in nearly every running back efficiency metric. This included missed tackles forced per attempt, breakaway run rate, rush yards over expected, and more.

The path to success for White is once again dominating touches. Some drafters are hesitant about this outcome and shy away from the inefficiency which is why you'll find him in the high-end RB2 range in most drafts.

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Outlook: If lightning could run, it would wear a Hawaiian blue #26 jersey. Detroit certainly raised some eyebrows when they made Gibbs the 12th overall pick in the 2023 draft, but instead eyeballs popped, as the rookie rolled up 11 touchdowns and 1,261 total yards on just 234 touches. Despite splitting the backfield with David Montgomery and not scoring his first NFL touchdown until Week 7, Gibbs often looked like played with his speed setting turned up, as he finished as a strong RB1 in both standard and PPR leagues. OC Ben Johnson deployed him all over the offense, using him on sweeps, screens, inside gaps, and wheel routes. His 52 receptions were good for 9th among backs, and this is the area I expect the most growth. Montgomery's usage at the goal line likely limits his touchdown upside, but the offensive coaches have already gone on record about their desire to make Gibbs a bigger part of the passing game. Look for the Lions to deploy their backs in a similar rotation this season, but if Gibbs can carve out an additional 20-25 touches, he's got a chance to crack the top-5.

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Outlook: Expectations last year were that the Chiefs would utilize some level of committee backfield with Pacheco, Jerick McKinnon, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire. Instead, Pacheco was the bell cow, racking up 249 combined touches in 14 games while McKinnon (46) and CEH (87) combined for 133. There are few players in the NFL that run harder than Pacheco, who gives maximum effort on seemingly every touch. Whether such an approach is sustainable over the long haul is debatable, but through two seasons he has missed just two games due to injury.

The Chiefs didn't make any notable additions at running back, and at this stage they appear to have decided not to bring back McKinnon, allowing CEH to be the backup and perhaps opening up a spot at RB3 for last year's training camp darling, Deneric Prince. However things shake out down the depth chart, it's clear that this is Pacheco's job. In a league that has more and more committees in the backfield, the chance to draft a true lead back is becoming increasingly rare. A talented weapon in a dangerous offense, Pacheco heads into 2024 as a top-10 fantasy RB.

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