You might think drafting depth is simply taking an extra QB, a few
WRs, an extra tight end or two, and maybe even a few defenses. If
you do, you’re someone I love drafting against. Drafting depth
isn’t about having plug-and-play backups; it's about trying
to hit big on late-round talent. That’s the mindset necessary
to win championships. Such an approach, in conjunction with the
widely touted zero-RB strategy, will help you build the best team
possible in 2016.
If you're not convinced of the value of the zero-RB approach,
take a look at JJ Zachariason's explanation on Numberfire.
Zachariason uses hard data from the past five years to demonstrate
that "selecting wide receivers early is smart and relying
on wide receivers in the middle and late rounds is dumb, and we've
certainly seen more running backs in the middle-to-late rounds
succeed versus wide receivers." Even if you’re not
100% sold on the zero-RB model, the following tips should help
you solve problems related to depth in your upcoming draft or
auction.
Carr: A late-round QB who took a leap in
2015 by adding 700 yards and 11 TDS to his 2014 stat line.
Rule #1: Draft a late round value QB
Every year, people invest in topflight quarterbacks who fail
to justify their high price tags. Those of you who drafted Aaron
Rodgers or Andrew Luck in the top few rounds in 2015 know what
I mean. And those of you who picked up Kirk Cousins, Tyrod Taylor
or Andy Dalton on the waiver wire also know what I mean. There's
so much depth at QB in the NFL right now that you can probably
make do with any half-decent signal caller who is likely to be
playing from behind (Blake Bortles, anyone?). This approach to
the QB position will allow you to draft more WR/RB depth in the
earlier rounds. Even if you're already solid at WR or RB, you
will dramatically increase your ability to conduct trades throughout
the season if you focus on more rushers and receivers—without
hurting yourself substantially at QB by waiting an extra round
or two. I recently had the 1st overall pick in a 12-team, PPR
mock draft and ended up with Derek Carr in the 13th round. I’ll
take a solid QB2 with QB1 upside that late in a draft any day.
If you wait until the bottom of the draft to pick up a QB, you
can also grab two (for streaming purposes).
Rule #2: Do not draft/roster a kicker
until you absolutely have to
This gives you 1 extra draft slot to potentially land a stud
that shines before your first Week 1 matchup. Kickers are becoming
obsolete, and the difference between the top kicker (Gostkowski)
and the rest is negligible enough to warrant a RB or WR stash.
A lot changes during the pre-season, so kicker avoidance becomes
even more important if you have an early draft. Valuable RBs and
WRs are in such high demand that it may even make sense to take
no kicker at all in your late July/early August draft with the
expectation of making room for a kicker at the last minute by
cutting an injured rusher/receiver whose recovery turns out not
to be progressing on schedule (as sometimes becomes apparent in
September).
In the same mock draft referenced above, instead of drafting
a kicker in the final round I picked up Saints’ WR Michael
Thomas. Given there’s plenty of time between now and technically
September 12th (when there are 2 Monday night games to open the
season) you could get a whole preseason and Week 1 of Thomas on
your roster before you have to pick up a kicker. I’ll happily
bypass a kicker and take educated risk on Marques
Colston’s spot in the Saints offense - spot where Colston
finished as the WR13, WR19, WR11 and WR11 from 2009-2012 during
his peak.
Rule #3: Draft 1 Defense or none at
all
I have always been a proponent of drafting a top defense, but
many do not put stock in this approach because it's so easy to
rely on streaming two defenses. However, if you want to have as
much trade bait as possible on your team, it makes sense to invest
in a single reliable defense, which frees up a roster spot to
allow for a potential stud RB or WR to emerge. Streaming defenses
isn't as effective as it seems when you consider the opportunity
cost associated with missing out on one of the RBs or WRs who
defy expectations by breaking into the top 15 at their position
(as happens every year).
Looking at another recent mock draft, the defenses started coming
off the board at Round 11 and were taken as late as Round 14.
This allowed me to target a few high ceiling players (Dixon, Thomas,
Howard, and Walford) who I can take a wait and see approach with
into Week 1.
The players that shock the fantasy world every year
are almost always young RBs and WRs—not TEs, as TEs rarely
make the jump to elite status early in their careers. I’ll
just post a few old article titles here to drive home my point:
What Zachariason says about the Zero-RB approach also applies
to drafting for trade bait depth. It's wisest to stock up on mid-to-late
round running backs vs. wide receivers. If you’re going
to take a receiver after Round 5, you might as well take them
in the last few rounds since the receiver position becomes a complete
crapshoot after the early rounds.
In a nutshell
If you want to be in a good position to make trades in 2016 and
you're participating in a traditional serpentine draft, take WRs
in the early rounds, RBs in the middle rounds, a TE and a defense
where you get good value, QBs late, and your kicker as late as
possible or not at all. If you’re lucky enough to be in
an auction league use the following table to draft your team:
Auction
Position
Budget
No. to Draft
QB
< 5%
1-2
WR
65%
4-5
RB
25%
5-6
TE
< 5%
1-2
DEF
< 5%
0-1
K
< 1%
0-1
Spend your WR allotment on 2-3 key starters and spread the rest
out between 1-2 low cost/high ceiling players.
The examples in this article have been mock drafts but next time
I’ll focus on actual drafts I’ve attended, their results,
and who I will be targeting for trades.