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Joseph Coccia | Archive | Email |  
Staff Writer

How to Build Depth in Your Draft
7/25/16

You might think drafting depth is simply taking an extra QB, a few WRs, an extra tight end or two, and maybe even a few defenses. If you do, you’re someone I love drafting against. Drafting depth isn’t about having plug-and-play backups; it's about trying to hit big on late-round talent. That’s the mindset necessary to win championships. Such an approach, in conjunction with the widely touted zero-RB strategy, will help you build the best team possible in 2016.

If you're not convinced of the value of the zero-RB approach, take a look at JJ Zachariason's explanation on Numberfire. Zachariason uses hard data from the past five years to demonstrate that "selecting wide receivers early is smart and relying on wide receivers in the middle and late rounds is dumb, and we've certainly seen more running backs in the middle-to-late rounds succeed versus wide receivers." Even if you’re not 100% sold on the zero-RB model, the following tips should help you solve problems related to depth in your upcoming draft or auction.

Derek Carr

Carr: A late-round QB who took a leap in 2015 by adding 700 yards and 11 TDS to his 2014 stat line.

Rule #1: Draft a late round value QB

Every year, people invest in topflight quarterbacks who fail to justify their high price tags. Those of you who drafted Aaron Rodgers or Andrew Luck in the top few rounds in 2015 know what I mean. And those of you who picked up Kirk Cousins, Tyrod Taylor or Andy Dalton on the waiver wire also know what I mean. There's so much depth at QB in the NFL right now that you can probably make do with any half-decent signal caller who is likely to be playing from behind (Blake Bortles, anyone?). This approach to the QB position will allow you to draft more WR/RB depth in the earlier rounds. Even if you're already solid at WR or RB, you will dramatically increase your ability to conduct trades throughout the season if you focus on more rushers and receivers—without hurting yourself substantially at QB by waiting an extra round or two. I recently had the 1st overall pick in a 12-team, PPR mock draft and ended up with Derek Carr in the 13th round. I’ll take a solid QB2 with QB1 upside that late in a draft any day. If you wait until the bottom of the draft to pick up a QB, you can also grab two (for streaming purposes).

Rule #2: Do not draft/roster a kicker until you absolutely have to

This gives you 1 extra draft slot to potentially land a stud that shines before your first Week 1 matchup. Kickers are becoming obsolete, and the difference between the top kicker (Gostkowski) and the rest is negligible enough to warrant a RB or WR stash. A lot changes during the pre-season, so kicker avoidance becomes even more important if you have an early draft. Valuable RBs and WRs are in such high demand that it may even make sense to take no kicker at all in your late July/early August draft with the expectation of making room for a kicker at the last minute by cutting an injured rusher/receiver whose recovery turns out not to be progressing on schedule (as sometimes becomes apparent in September).

In the same mock draft referenced above, instead of drafting a kicker in the final round I picked up Saints’ WR Michael Thomas. Given there’s plenty of time between now and technically September 12th (when there are 2 Monday night games to open the season) you could get a whole preseason and Week 1 of Thomas on your roster before you have to pick up a kicker. I’ll happily bypass a kicker and take educated risk on Marques Colston’s spot in the Saints offense - spot where Colston finished as the WR13, WR19, WR11 and WR11 from 2009-2012 during his peak.

Rule #3: Draft 1 Defense or none at all

I have always been a proponent of drafting a top defense, but many do not put stock in this approach because it's so easy to rely on streaming two defenses. However, if you want to have as much trade bait as possible on your team, it makes sense to invest in a single reliable defense, which frees up a roster spot to allow for a potential stud RB or WR to emerge. Streaming defenses isn't as effective as it seems when you consider the opportunity cost associated with missing out on one of the RBs or WRs who defy expectations by breaking into the top 15 at their position (as happens every year).

Looking at another recent mock draft, the defenses started coming off the board at Round 11 and were taken as late as Round 14. This allowed me to target a few high ceiling players (Dixon, Thomas, Howard, and Walford) who I can take a wait and see approach with into Week 1.

Defense / ST My Team
11.3 - Arizona Cardinals 1.6 - DeAndre Hopkins, HOU
11.4 - Denver Broncos 2.7 - Alshon Jeffery, CHI
11.11 - Seattle Seahawks 3.6 - Golden Tate, DET
12.8 - Carolina Panthers 4.7 - LeSean McCoy, BUF
13.8 - Houston Texans 5.6 - Emmanuel Sanders, DEN
14.1 - Kansas City Chiefs 6.7 - Jay Ajayi, MIA
14.3 - Los Angeles Rams 7.6 - Duke Johnson, CLE
14.4 - New England Patriots 8.7 - DeMarco Murray, TEN
14.6 - Buffalo Bills 9.6 - Jason Witten, DAL
14.7 - New York Jets 10.7 - Philip Rivers, SD
14.11 - Cincinnati Bengals 11.6 - Kenneth Dixon, BAL
12.7 - Michael Thomas, NO
13.6 - Jordan Howard, CHI
14.7 - Clive Walford, OAK
15.6 - DeAndre Washington, OAK

Rule #4: Draft a ton of young RBs and WRs

The players that shock the fantasy world every year are almost always young RBs and WRs—not TEs, as TEs rarely make the jump to elite status early in their careers. I’ll just post a few old article titles here to drive home my point:

a) “Eric Ebron, Ladarius Green among young tight ends to watch” – July 2014

b) “Can Josh Hill Effectively Fill the Saints' Tight End Void?” – March 2015

c) “Top 5 rookie TE’s: Maxx Williams, Clive Walford, Tyler Kroft, Jesse James, Blake Bell” – August 2015

I rest my case on young tight ends.

What Zachariason says about the Zero-RB approach also applies to drafting for trade bait depth. It's wisest to stock up on mid-to-late round running backs vs. wide receivers. If you’re going to take a receiver after Round 5, you might as well take them in the last few rounds since the receiver position becomes a complete crapshoot after the early rounds.

In a nutshell

If you want to be in a good position to make trades in 2016 and you're participating in a traditional serpentine draft, take WRs in the early rounds, RBs in the middle rounds, a TE and a defense where you get good value, QBs late, and your kicker as late as possible or not at all. If you’re lucky enough to be in an auction league use the following table to draft your team:

 Auction
Position Budget No. to Draft
QB < 5% 1-2
WR 65% 4-5
RB 25% 5-6
TE < 5% 1-2
DEF < 5% 0-1
K < 1% 0-1

Spend your WR allotment on 2-3 key starters and spread the rest out between 1-2 low cost/high ceiling players.

The examples in this article have been mock drafts but next time I’ll focus on actual drafts I’ve attended, their results, and who I will be targeting for trades.