An excellent tool for DFS players looking for value plays each week
is the waiver wire activity log for season-long leagues on sites
like Yahoo, CBS, and ESPN.
These logs show ownership changes for players who have been recently
added and dropped due to ancillary changes to their team, like
injuries to starters, advantageous matchups, and improved play
over the past few games.
If a large percentage of season-long league owners are willing
to drop a player to add Dennis Pitta, Dwayne Washington, or the
Miami defense, chances are those players have a recent increase
in value that the salary makers on DraftKings and Fanduel have
yet to account for.
This may sound kind of obvious, but I don’t think that
enough fantasy players utilize free and easily accessible tools
like this when building their lineups.
DFS owners like to scour the internet for articles like this
one for insight on who to start or value plays each week, and
many people pay for premium sites that provide DFS team building
apps to help them build an optimal lineup.
Although I do think premium lineup building sites have merit
and I am most appreciative of you taking the time to read this
piece, I do think you can find a player or two on your own by
taking the time to review your waiver wire log after waivers have
posted each week.
Here are a few plays for Week 3:
Luck may need to keep up with Rivers in
what could be a shootout between the Colts and Chargers.
H2H/Cash - Andrew Luck vs. San Diego ($7,600
The Chargers have given up the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing
quarterbacks this season, with Alex Smith lighting them up for
25 points Week 1 at Arrowhead. Although San Diego did hold Blake
Bortles in check last week, keeping Andrew Luck and the Colts
off the score board will be a much more difficult in Week 3.
Luck scored 38.5 points Week 1 at home against the Lions in what
turned out to be a shootout. I anticipate this game will be similar
to the one against Detroit, as Philip Rivers and the Chargers
will likely have success against a suspect Colts defense.
My biggest concern on Luck his is lingering shoulder injury.
He was limited in practice on Thursday, but I believe he will
start and will produce on Sunday. Monitor the injury report on
game day and make sure he is active before finalizing your lineup.
Rivers at his $6,600 price tag is an enticing play this week
against a Colts secondary that was torched Week 1 by Matthew Stafford
and the Lions. Ted Monachino’s defense did hold Trevor Siemien
to zero touchdowns last week, but I believe that was more of a
result of game flow with Denver’s defense scoring two TD’s and
C.J. Anderson having success on the ground.
I project the game script to be more advantageous for Rivers
and the Chargers offense. I also like this play in GPP formats
because many owners will shy away from Rivers due to the fact
that he is without Danny Woodhead and Keenan Allen, and Antonio
Gates may miss this week with an injury.
A projected low ownership level mixed with a high ceiling could
make Rivers a tournament winning play this week.
The Bills defense has been awful this season, allowing 50 total
points and just over 400 yards a game through Week 2.
Ryan Fitzpatrick picked apart the Bills for 374 yards and a score
last week, including an impressive 11 yard per pass average that
is indicative of how many deep balls he was able to complete against
a suspect secondary.
Although Carson Palmer is one of the best downfield passers is
the league and the Cardinals like to stretch the field with Michael
Floyd and John Brown, I think this game is going to have a negative
game script for Palmer, as the defense will shut down the Bills
and the Cardinals will likely run the ball heavily in the second
In keeping with the theme of game script against the Bills, David
Johnson will receive a heavy workload on the ground and the air
While I don’t typically recommend playing top dollar for
the most expensive running back in GPP games, a consistent performer
like Johnson is worth the investment in cash games, especially
a head-to-head format where you are only trying to beat one opponent.
The Bills have allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to opposing
wide receivers and the sixth-most to opposing running back. Buffalo
has been terrible as a defensive unit this season and Johnson
should dominate, especially in the second half when the Cardinals
own a double-digit lead.
A contrarian play for GPP players in Week 3 against a tough Denver-D,
Gio is a sneaky low-ownership play that could pay dividends.
There is no doubt that the Broncos defense is stout after holding
the Colts and Panthers to just 144 total yards and one rushing
touchdown in the first two weeks. I have little doubt that they
will limit Jeremy Hill to his sub-three yard per carry average,
forcing Andy Dalton to attack via the air to wide receivers, tight
ends, and running backs out of the backfield.
This is where Gio will earn his money for fantasy owners. Bernard
caught nine balls for 100 yards and a score against a tough run
defense in Pittsburgh, and I think he will have similar success
at home against the Broncos.
After failing to produce double digit fantasy points in either
of his first two games, it is easy to see why fading Gurley on
the road against Tampa Bay is a smart move.
Although the Bucs have allowed the 11th most fantasy points to
running backs this season, the majority of the yards and points
scored have come in the form of receiving yards by opposing backs,
not rushing yards.
Gurley has yet to score a receiving touchdown in his NFL career
and has not topped more than 44 receiving yards in any game. Counting
on him developing into a pass catching back this week on the road
against the Bucs seems like a poor play.
A target monster with 23 targets and 17 receptions in his first
two games, Landry is clearly Ryan Tannehill’s security blanket
and a nice low floor, relatively high ceiling play this week against
Landry posted 25.5 points last week against the Patriots, despite
the fact that he did not score a touchdown. His volume provides
a high floor that cash players like, but with the upside of him
scoring a touchdown present to make him a top play of the week.
Cleveland has allowed the sixth most fantasy points to opposing
defenses, with Mike Wallace and Jordan Mathews each posting double
digit games. At just $6,600, Landry is a solid value and should
continue the trend of double digit performances against the lowly
Britt is an unsexy option and a player that has burned too many
fantasy owners in the past. He is also a player who caught six
passes on 10 targets for 94 yards last week against Seattle, and
is matched up this week against defense that struggles against
the pass and excels against the run.
For these two reasons, along with the fact that he is dirt cheap
at $3,600, Kenny Britt is an excellent home run play for GPP players
looking to hit pay dirt.
Fade - A.J.
Green vs. Denver ($8,100 on DraftKings)
Some DFS players might consider Green a contrarian play considering
not many people will own him with his tough matchup against the
Broncos. I see the logic here, but at $8,100 his price is too
high should he in fact struggle against Denver.
Other options to consider - Alshon
Jeffery @ Dallas, Brandon Marshall @ KC
H2H/Cash - Eric Ebron @ Green Bay ($3,700 on
Eric Ebron posted five catches for 46 yards and a touchdown Week
1, and then followed up that performance with four catches for
53 yards and a touchdown that was called back on a phantom OPI
In a week where tight end plays are less than attractive, Ebron
playing against a Packers team that has allowed the third-most
fantasy points to the position is a nice play for cash game players.
Antonio Gates is officially doubtful this week against the Colts,
opening the door for Henry to get that start for the Chargers
at tight end.
Henry, a 6-5 rookie from Arkansas taken in the second round of
the NFL draft, has earned the praise of Rivers and offensive coordinator
“We feel like he’s a tremendous receiver,”
Whisehunt said in an article by Tom Krasovic of the San Diego
Union Tribune. “But when you’ve got a guy like Gates
that’s a pretty good receiver, too, it doesn’t give
you as many opportunities.”
With Gates likely out on Sunday, Henry should get his opportunity.
H2H/Cash - Cardinals @ Buffalo ($3,600 on DraftKings)
The Bills offense is anemic and Sammy Watkins is likely going
to miss this game because of his lingering foot injury. I look
for the Cardinals to roll in this one.
Other options to consider - Bucs vs. Rams, Steelers vs. Eagles
GPP - Miami vs. Cleveland ($3,000 on DraftKings)
The Dolphins were exposed by New England week to on the road
at Foxboro to the tune of 31 points allowed for three fantasy
At home, against the Browns and a rookie quarterback, the Dolphins
have excellent value in GPP contests.
The Ravens and Eagles, to less than stellar defenses, managed
seven and nine fantasy points respectively against the Browns
first team offense. With rookie Cody Kessler under center, I predict
the Dolphins to reach double digit fantasy points this week.
Other options to consider - Giants vs. Redskins
Fade - Green Bay vs. Detroit ($3,000 on DraftKings)
Although the Packers have posted seven sacks on one interception
their first two games of the season, they face off against Matthew
Stafford and the fifth ranked Detroit offense this week.
Stafford threw for 462 yards and four touchdowns in his two games
against the Pack in 2015. I think there are better defensive plays
this week for the price.