Amari Cooper is NFL ready and one of three
players likely to go number one in your rookie draft.
Anyone who plays in a dynasty league knows the excitement of the
rookie draft. Much like real NFL teams looking for that fresh face
to re-ignite their organization; the rookie draft provides hope
for dynasty owners, whether they are just a player away from contending
for the championship, or looking to totally rebuild their franchise.
I am part of several dynasty leagues, each with a little different
scoring system and makeup, but I wanted to highlight one of the
rookie drafts I was recently a part of so to help in your own rookie
draft preparation.
This particular league is fairly traditional (No PPR, 12 teams,
2 RB, 3WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex) except it is a 2-QB league, which obviously
impacts strategy. However, because this was a weak draft class for
quarterbacks, this part of the league setup did not significantly
affect the draft, compared to more traditional 1 QB leagues.
Overall, I like the potential of this draft class as the running
backs are stronger and deeper than last season’s and the wide
receivers are very close to last year’s remarkable class.
While no two drafts will be the same every individual is going to
have “their guys” they love or hate, I think the following
is a solid representation of how rookie drafts may go this year…
Best Pick of the Round: Ameer Abdullah Worst Pick of the Round: Dorial Green-Beckham
If I had to bet I would say the trio of Gordon/Cooper/Gurley will
go in the top-three (in any order) in about 90 percent of rookie
drafts this year and rightfully so. Gordon lands in the best spot
for fantasy’s hardest position to fill (RB) by going to San
Diego where he can immediately touch the ball 18-plus times a game
and has the talent to be a top 20 fantasy back from day 1.
Cooper, as the most complete/NFL ready receiver this year, lands
in a spot where he should easily see 7-plus targets a game as the
Raiders de facto No.1 wide receiver. While Cooper may not be as
athletically exciting as some of the other receivers in this class,
his fantasy production should be the safest.
Gurley is perhaps the most interesting player drafted this year.
On one hand, he is coming off a major injury and most likely will
not be ready Week 1. On the other hand, he may be the best running
back drafted since Adrian Peterson. Since rookie-only drafts occur
in dynasty leagues, the reward of waiting may certainly pay off
for a patient owner willing to take the risk. I would not expect
a lot of production from him this year, but if you are still a few
players away, or totally rebuilding your dynasty team, Gurley could
be a strong foundation for 2016 and beyond.
Yeldon at the 4-spot may be a stretch here and feels like a safe/unexciting
pick. The fantasy team that drafted him is close to being a complete
squad, needing a steady flex player, a role Yeldon could fill from
day one, even if he never puts up near elite numbers.
Agholor at pick 5 may also be a bit higher compared to other rookie
drafts, and there may have been some homerism at play, but he’s
an excellent fit in Chip Kelly’s offense and could flirt with
consistent fantasy WR3 numbers all year long.
White at pick 6 is solid value in my book, and the most potentially
exciting wide receiver prospect in this year’s class. I have
a feeling he is more of a longer term project (2-3 years) before
he explodes, but he should make enough big plays in year one to
put him on the WR3 map, even if his week-to-week numbers are inconsistent.
Tevin Coleman at pick 7 feels right, and even though I’m not
a big fan, he is in a good situation to contribute right away. The
owner that drafted him also owns Devonta Freeman and wouldn’t
have landed Coleman with his next pick, so I can’t blame him
for taking him halfway through Round 1.
I won’t waste a lot of time on the quarterbacks drafted at
8 and 10. In most 1 QB leagues these guys will certainly fall farther,
but supply/demand makes them fine values where they were picked
in our draft. I do not think either quarterback is a long-term franchise
player, but because of Mariota’s legs and Winston’s
potential (and supporting cast), I could see both guys putting up
nice fantasy days for a few seasons, but navigating in QB2 territory
the majority of time.
The last two picks of the first round were the most interesting.
I am a big believer in Abdullah, not only as a talented player,
but as a potential three-down back every week. Joique Bell is in
Abdullah’s way (I see Theo Riddick as more of a specialist)
but he aging, coming off an injury (Achilles, knee) and has limited
talent to begin with. At pick No.11, I thought Abdullah was extremely
good value.
On the opposite end, Green-Beckham was a reach at pick 12 in my
opinion. There were three receivers that went a round later that
I would have chosen over DGB. While Green-Beckham obviously has
the measurables (6’5’’ 240lbs) to be a superstar,
he also has major character concerns and lands in an organization
where he may never have a good chance to fully develop. Green-Beckham
was on my “do not draft unless emergency” list, so taking
him in the first round seemed like a major reach.
Best Pick of the Round: DeVante Parker Worst Pick of the Round: Jay Ajayi
I loved the way this round started with the pick of Parker. This
early in the pre-season, the media has little to talk about concerning
football, so issues like Parker’s injury gets a lot of attention
and next thing you know his fantasy stock is falling. Do your research
and do not fall victim to this kind of “buzz” early
in the year. Parker (foot) has near-elite talent and if fully healthy
would have likely gone 7-plus picks sooner. The injury may set him
back but it does not appear to be a long-term issue. With a solid
cast around him and a seemingly improving quarterback, Parker could
post top-35 receiver numbers year one and develop into a top-15
receiver within a two years.
Maxx Williams at pick 14 does not excite me from a value standpoint,
but considering the weak TE class and the position in general being
a crapshoot after the top few guys, I don’t fault the owner
for taking him this early.
I do, however fault the owner at pick 15 for taking Ajayi, especially
because he is not a Lamar Miller owner. Ajayi (knee) has immense
physical talent but fell hard in the NFL draft because of major
injury concerns. I believe Lamar Miller is an underrated back who
will carry most of the load this season and even if the Dolphins
do not re-sign him next year, there is no way they let Ajayi become
a workhorse with his injury woes. Ajayi is more of a third-round
pick in rookie drafts, or a late second-rounder if you happen to
own Miller.
The rest of the round was standard to me, no exceptional values,
but no real reaches either. Duke Johnson at pick 17 is interesting
because he has a skill set (excellent receiver) that could thrive
in the Browns offense, which is lacking solid receivers out of the
backfield and should be playing from behind more often than not.
With an excellent offensive line and shaky competition (Crowell/West),
Johnson should contribute right away getting 12-plus touches per
game by mid-season.
The picks of Dorsett and Smith are pure dynasty league gems, as
they will most likely offer next to nothing in year one, but could
emerge as early as year two as go-to receivers for their respective
teams, with Dorsett being in the best situation.
Best Pick of the Round: David Johnson Worst Pick of the Round: Bryce Petty
Much like Parker at the top of round 2, I thought Johnson fell too
far in this draft. I do not believe Andre Ellington is the long-term
answer and he obviously cannot hold up being a full-time back. I
look for Johnson to be the main ball carrier in Arizona by mid-season
or sooner, with Ellington being relegated to a Giovani Bernard type
role. Don’t believe the hype that Johnson “doesn’t
finish runs” or “avoids contact”. He could develop
into a solid, if unspectacular, three-down back as soon as this
season.
Speaking of hype, Matt Jones has been getting a lot of it this offseason
and while I think he was taken at a decent spot (pick 26), I would
not expect a whole lot from him anytime soon. He’s a complimentary
piece to Alfred Morris which isn’t a bad situation, but he
is not a special talent by any stretch.
In a 2-QB league taking Bryce Petty in the third round was not a
total disaster but a fantasy roster only has so many spots available
and Petty is a raw prospect that should be on the waiver wire unless
you’re in a very deep league. The owner who drafted him, in
his defense, owns Geno Smith, but our league has only 14 bench spots
and for a 12-team dynasty league that’s not a lot of space
to play with, but I digress.
The rest of the draft was filled with fliers, handcuffs, or projects
but some intriguing talents nonetheless. Artis-Payne is a rather
pedestrian talent but lands in an ideal spot for playing time, as
most likely the main backup to injury-plagued Jonathan Stewart in
Carolina. Artis-Payne would probably see 15+ touches per game if
Stewart were to go down with injury, making the rookie worthy of
a flex spot in favorable matchups.
Jeremy Langford does not jump out at you on tape either but with
Matt Forte turning 30 and entering a contract year, Langford should
have a big target on his back in dynasty leagues, especially for
Forte owners.
At a different position (WR) but a similar situation, Justin Hardy
might be the eventual heir apparent to Roddy White in Atlanta as
a possession type receiver who projects as a high-volume/limited
big play guy. While handcuffing receivers is not a very popular
tactic, I actually really like the strategy particularly in deeper
dynasty leagues.
The last two guys I’d like to mention are the final two running
backs selected, Robinson and Davis. I like both these picks in dynasty
leagues, but for different reasons. Robinson appears to be a perfect
fit in Indianapolis where he will not be asked to carry the offense,
which is a good thing because he is athletically limited, but has
the skill-set to take what he is given. Obviously the job is Frank
Gore’s this year, but Robinson could eat into Gore’s
workload sooner rather than later and possibly be “the man”
as soon as next season.
Davis would appear to be in a bad situation at first glance, but
I would implore you to consider a different take. Carlos Hyde, despite
some hype in certain fantasy circles, did little (83 carries) in
his rookie season. While it is possible he takes the job and runs
with it, it is far from a sure thing. Reggie Bush is entrenched
as the passing down back and could very well have a solid season
in that role, but he is certainly past his prime and not a long-term
answer. Mike Davis doesn’t flash on tape, but he reminds me
of a Frank Gore/Alfred Morris hybrid, capable of grinding out tough
yards, and occasionally breaking outside for a significant gain.
If Hyde falls flat on his face or gets hurt, do not be surprised
to see Davis get more playing time in his rookie season than you
originally thought.
