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Bill Anderson | Archive | Email |
Staff Writer
 

Rookie Draft Analysis
6/26/15

Amari Cooper

Amari Cooper is NFL ready and one of three players likely to go number one in your rookie draft.


Anyone who plays in a dynasty league knows the excitement of the rookie draft. Much like real NFL teams looking for that fresh face to re-ignite their organization; the rookie draft provides hope for dynasty owners, whether they are just a player away from contending for the championship, or looking to totally rebuild their franchise. I am part of several dynasty leagues, each with a little different scoring system and makeup, but I wanted to highlight one of the rookie drafts I was recently a part of so to help in your own rookie draft preparation.

This particular league is fairly traditional (No PPR, 12 teams, 2 RB, 3WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex) except it is a 2-QB league, which obviously impacts strategy. However, because this was a weak draft class for quarterbacks, this part of the league setup did not significantly affect the draft, compared to more traditional 1 QB leagues.

Overall, I like the potential of this draft class as the running backs are stronger and deeper than last season’s and the wide receivers are very close to last year’s remarkable class. While no two drafts will be the same every individual is going to have “their guys” they love or hate, I think the following is a solid representation of how rookie drafts may go this year…

Round 1
1. Melvin Gordon (RB San Diego)
2. Amari Cooper (WR Oakland)
3. Todd Gurley (RB St. Louis)
4. T.J. Yeldon (RB Jacksonville)
5. Nelson Agholor (WR Philadelphia)
6. Kevin White (WR Chicago)
7. Tevin Coleman (RB Atlanta)
8. Marcus Mariota (QB Tennessee)
9. Breshad Perriman (WR Baltimore)
10. Jameis Winston (QB Tampa Bay)
11. Ameer Abdullah (RB Detroit)
12. Dorial Green-Beckham (WR Tennessee)

Best Pick of the Round: Ameer Abdullah
Worst Pick of the Round: Dorial Green-Beckham

If I had to bet I would say the trio of Gordon/Cooper/Gurley will go in the top-three (in any order) in about 90 percent of rookie drafts this year and rightfully so. Gordon lands in the best spot for fantasy’s hardest position to fill (RB) by going to San Diego where he can immediately touch the ball 18-plus times a game and has the talent to be a top 20 fantasy back from day 1.

Cooper, as the most complete/NFL ready receiver this year, lands in a spot where he should easily see 7-plus targets a game as the Raiders de facto No.1 wide receiver. While Cooper may not be as athletically exciting as some of the other receivers in this class, his fantasy production should be the safest.

Gurley is perhaps the most interesting player drafted this year. On one hand, he is coming off a major injury and most likely will not be ready Week 1. On the other hand, he may be the best running back drafted since Adrian Peterson. Since rookie-only drafts occur in dynasty leagues, the reward of waiting may certainly pay off for a patient owner willing to take the risk. I would not expect a lot of production from him this year, but if you are still a few players away, or totally rebuilding your dynasty team, Gurley could be a strong foundation for 2016 and beyond.

Yeldon at the 4-spot may be a stretch here and feels like a safe/unexciting pick. The fantasy team that drafted him is close to being a complete squad, needing a steady flex player, a role Yeldon could fill from day one, even if he never puts up near elite numbers.

Agholor at pick 5 may also be a bit higher compared to other rookie drafts, and there may have been some homerism at play, but he’s an excellent fit in Chip Kelly’s offense and could flirt with consistent fantasy WR3 numbers all year long.

White at pick 6 is solid value in my book, and the most potentially exciting wide receiver prospect in this year’s class. I have a feeling he is more of a longer term project (2-3 years) before he explodes, but he should make enough big plays in year one to put him on the WR3 map, even if his week-to-week numbers are inconsistent.

Tevin Coleman at pick 7 feels right, and even though I’m not a big fan, he is in a good situation to contribute right away. The owner that drafted him also owns Devonta Freeman and wouldn’t have landed Coleman with his next pick, so I can’t blame him for taking him halfway through Round 1.

I won’t waste a lot of time on the quarterbacks drafted at 8 and 10. In most 1 QB leagues these guys will certainly fall farther, but supply/demand makes them fine values where they were picked in our draft. I do not think either quarterback is a long-term franchise player, but because of Mariota’s legs and Winston’s potential (and supporting cast), I could see both guys putting up nice fantasy days for a few seasons, but navigating in QB2 territory the majority of time.

The last two picks of the first round were the most interesting. I am a big believer in Abdullah, not only as a talented player, but as a potential three-down back every week. Joique Bell is in Abdullah’s way (I see Theo Riddick as more of a specialist) but he aging, coming off an injury (Achilles, knee) and has limited talent to begin with. At pick No.11, I thought Abdullah was extremely good value.

On the opposite end, Green-Beckham was a reach at pick 12 in my opinion. There were three receivers that went a round later that I would have chosen over DGB. While Green-Beckham obviously has the measurables (6’5’’ 240lbs) to be a superstar, he also has major character concerns and lands in an organization where he may never have a good chance to fully develop. Green-Beckham was on my “do not draft unless emergency” list, so taking him in the first round seemed like a major reach.

Round 2
13. DeVante Parker (WR Miami)
14. Maxx Williams (TE Baltimore)
15. Jay Ajayi (RB Miami)
16. Jaelen Strong (WR Houston)
17. Duke Johnson (RB Cleveland)
18. Phillip Dorsett (WR Indianapolis)
19. Devin Funchess (WR Carolina)
20. Devin Smith (WR New York Jets)
21. David Cobb (RB Tennessee)
22. Chris Conley (WR Kansas City)
23. Javorius Allen (RB Baltimore)
24. Tyler Lockett (WR Seattle)

Best Pick of the Round: DeVante Parker
Worst Pick of the Round: Jay Ajayi

I loved the way this round started with the pick of Parker. This early in the pre-season, the media has little to talk about concerning football, so issues like Parker’s injury gets a lot of attention and next thing you know his fantasy stock is falling. Do your research and do not fall victim to this kind of “buzz” early in the year. Parker (foot) has near-elite talent and if fully healthy would have likely gone 7-plus picks sooner. The injury may set him back but it does not appear to be a long-term issue. With a solid cast around him and a seemingly improving quarterback, Parker could post top-35 receiver numbers year one and develop into a top-15 receiver within a two years.

Maxx Williams at pick 14 does not excite me from a value standpoint, but considering the weak TE class and the position in general being a crapshoot after the top few guys, I don’t fault the owner for taking him this early.

I do, however fault the owner at pick 15 for taking Ajayi, especially because he is not a Lamar Miller owner. Ajayi (knee) has immense physical talent but fell hard in the NFL draft because of major injury concerns. I believe Lamar Miller is an underrated back who will carry most of the load this season and even if the Dolphins do not re-sign him next year, there is no way they let Ajayi become a workhorse with his injury woes. Ajayi is more of a third-round pick in rookie drafts, or a late second-rounder if you happen to own Miller.

The rest of the round was standard to me, no exceptional values, but no real reaches either. Duke Johnson at pick 17 is interesting because he has a skill set (excellent receiver) that could thrive in the Browns offense, which is lacking solid receivers out of the backfield and should be playing from behind more often than not. With an excellent offensive line and shaky competition (Crowell/West), Johnson should contribute right away getting 12-plus touches per game by mid-season.

The picks of Dorsett and Smith are pure dynasty league gems, as they will most likely offer next to nothing in year one, but could emerge as early as year two as go-to receivers for their respective teams, with Dorsett being in the best situation.

Round 3
25. David Johnson (RB Arizona)
26. Matt Jones (RB Washington)
27. Bryce Petty (QB New York Jets)
28. Cameron Artis-Payne (RB Carolina)
29. Jeremy Langford (RB Chicago)
30. Justin Hardy (WR Atlanta)
31. Sammie Coates (WR Pittsburgh)
32. Josh Robinson (RB Indianapolis)
33. Mike Davis (RB San Francisco)
34. Kenny Bell (WR Tampa Bay)
35. Tyler Kroft (TE Cincinnati)
36. Clive Walford (TE Oakland)

Best Pick of the Round: David Johnson
Worst Pick of the Round: Bryce Petty

Much like Parker at the top of round 2, I thought Johnson fell too far in this draft. I do not believe Andre Ellington is the long-term answer and he obviously cannot hold up being a full-time back. I look for Johnson to be the main ball carrier in Arizona by mid-season or sooner, with Ellington being relegated to a Giovani Bernard type role. Don’t believe the hype that Johnson “doesn’t finish runs” or “avoids contact”. He could develop into a solid, if unspectacular, three-down back as soon as this season.

Speaking of hype, Matt Jones has been getting a lot of it this offseason and while I think he was taken at a decent spot (pick 26), I would not expect a whole lot from him anytime soon. He’s a complimentary piece to Alfred Morris which isn’t a bad situation, but he is not a special talent by any stretch.

In a 2-QB league taking Bryce Petty in the third round was not a total disaster but a fantasy roster only has so many spots available and Petty is a raw prospect that should be on the waiver wire unless you’re in a very deep league. The owner who drafted him, in his defense, owns Geno Smith, but our league has only 14 bench spots and for a 12-team dynasty league that’s not a lot of space to play with, but I digress.

The rest of the draft was filled with fliers, handcuffs, or projects but some intriguing talents nonetheless. Artis-Payne is a rather pedestrian talent but lands in an ideal spot for playing time, as most likely the main backup to injury-plagued Jonathan Stewart in Carolina. Artis-Payne would probably see 15+ touches per game if Stewart were to go down with injury, making the rookie worthy of a flex spot in favorable matchups.

Jeremy Langford does not jump out at you on tape either but with Matt Forte turning 30 and entering a contract year, Langford should have a big target on his back in dynasty leagues, especially for Forte owners.

At a different position (WR) but a similar situation, Justin Hardy might be the eventual heir apparent to Roddy White in Atlanta as a possession type receiver who projects as a high-volume/limited big play guy. While handcuffing receivers is not a very popular tactic, I actually really like the strategy particularly in deeper dynasty leagues.

The last two guys I’d like to mention are the final two running backs selected, Robinson and Davis. I like both these picks in dynasty leagues, but for different reasons. Robinson appears to be a perfect fit in Indianapolis where he will not be asked to carry the offense, which is a good thing because he is athletically limited, but has the skill-set to take what he is given. Obviously the job is Frank Gore’s this year, but Robinson could eat into Gore’s workload sooner rather than later and possibly be “the man” as soon as next season.

Davis would appear to be in a bad situation at first glance, but I would implore you to consider a different take. Carlos Hyde, despite some hype in certain fantasy circles, did little (83 carries) in his rookie season. While it is possible he takes the job and runs with it, it is far from a sure thing. Reggie Bush is entrenched as the passing down back and could very well have a solid season in that role, but he is certainly past his prime and not a long-term answer. Mike Davis doesn’t flash on tape, but he reminds me of a Frank Gore/Alfred Morris hybrid, capable of grinding out tough yards, and occasionally breaking outside for a significant gain. If Hyde falls flat on his face or gets hurt, do not be surprised to see Davis get more playing time in his rookie season than you originally thought.