It’s that time of year again when dynasty
league owners partake in a rookie only draft, where future success
(or failure) can hinge on just a few picks. One of my dynasty leagues
recently did our draft so I thought I would share it to give you
a feel of how players are being valued and where they are being
drafted. Because this is still fairly early in the offseason, a
lot could change, especially during training camp, but many dynasty
leagues hold their drafts much earlier in the year so it’s
always good to be prepared.
This particular league is fairly traditional (No PPR, 12 teams,
1 QB, 2 RB, 3WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex) except we get 2 taxi squad spots
on our bench to develop longer term prospects. Going into the draft
I counted 15 or so players I liked to make an immediate impact and/or
have a high ceiling long-term. Beyond those players, the draft seemed
like a bit of a crapshoot, so I tried to focus on the top 15-18
picks as much as I could. Let’s take a look to see the results!
With only Devontae Booker ahead of him,
Royce Freeman has a chance to be a contributor in Year 1.
Best Pick of the Round: While I think
the 4-5 picks after Barkley could go in several different directions,
and I wouldn’t argue much with any of them, the best value in this
round was Royce
Freeman. Freeman has as much upside (talent-wise) as the backs
selected 2-6 but lands in perhaps a better situation than any of
them. Freeman could easily begin the year as the starter in Denver
and become a true three-down back in a short time.
With a solid corps of
talent around him, Freeman won’t have a ton of pressure
and has the skill-set to hold up to a heavy workload. At the very
least he should get goal line work and split duties with Devontae Booker starting Week 1, making his floor relatively high and safe.
While Freeman may not have the sexy name or the super high draft
capital, his blend of talent, lack of competition, and supporting
cast make him a very safe pick in the late first round, with plenty
of upside to get you excited in year one. I have a feeling Freeman
will be one of the players whose stock rises considerably in the
next two months, so late first might be an absolute bargain here.
Worst Pick of the Round: I actually
don’t have a major problem with any of the guys taken in round
1 but the player I like the least here is Ridley. He seems like
a player who will be very helpful and valuable to his NFL team
but frustrating to his fantasy owners. With or without Julio
Jones in Atlanta, Ridley is not an alpha dog stud receiver
who can command a ton of targets and rack up fantasy points consistently.
Ridley is a solid route runner with speed but he is undersized
and not elite in any aspect of his craft. He may be a very strong
second receiver on an NFL team for his whole career, and I’m
not saying there is no value in that for fantasy purposes, but
in the first round of rookie drafts I want to swing for the fences,
not hit singles.
In the spot he was drafted, I’d prefer Sutton, the aforementioned
Freeman, or even your favorite QB if you really feel strongly
about one. Personally, if I’m on the clock and someone wants
to trade up for Ridley I’m perfectly willing to trade back
and make a higher upside play, even at the risk of losing a “safe”
player like Ridley.
Best Pick of the Round: I like quite
a few players in this round including Lamar
Jackson but the best value was Michael
Gallup. Gallup did not get as much attention as some of the
higher profile receivers in this draft but he is no slouch as
a talent either, showing well in the intermediate level of the
field with reliable hands and above average athleticism.
Beyond his talent though, Gallup might have landed in the very
best situation of any receiver for fantasy purposes, as Dallas
has a ton of targets up for grabs after releasing Dez Bryant and
Jason Witten retiring this offseason. With a strong run game to
take the pressure off and a young, emerging quarterback, Gallup
could produce early and often in his rookie year, something most
other receivers in this class will probably not do.
While Gallup may not have the flashy name, or the top-level ceiling
that some other rookies possess, he should have guaranteed targets
and a chance to shine early, meaning he might see your starting
lineup in year 1 or, at the very least, accumulate trade value
early so you can move him for some more valuable assets.
Worst Pick of the Round: I don’t
love the Hurst pick in this round but the pick I really can’t
stand is Josh
Allen. I get the theory behind why he was taken here, we have
a taxi squad position so teams like to “hide” developmental players
like Allen, and he’s the last of “the big 5” QB’s in this draft,
so it makes sense from those perspectives.
On the flip side, I believe Allen will be a total bust due to
being inaccurate even against below average competition in college.
In addition, he has one of the very worst receiving corps in the
league, an offensive line that will be below average, and a running
back that may be on his last legs, and you have the recipe for
disaster here. I would literally take any player drafted over
Allen, that’s how much I feel strongly about his bust potential.
Best Pick of the Round: I really
like the long-term potential of Dallas
Goedert, who may have been an early 2nd round pick if he had
a better landing spot, but the best value in this round to me
is Dante
Pettis.
Pettis does not stand out in any one area of his game but he has
the feel for being a successful receiver and possesses adequate
size, speed, and burst to play at the NFL level.
What I also love about Pettis is the combination of his draft
capital (2nd round) and landing spot. In San Francisco, Pettis
should earn snaps right away (as there is no true No.1 receiver),
has a great upcoming quarterback throwing the ball, a creative
offensive-minded coach calling plays, and a struggling defense
that should force the offense into a pass-heavy ratio.
While they are different players, I look at Pettis and Calvin Ridley as players who should have high floors and consistent,
long careers, even if neither ever becomes a fantasy stud. The
big difference of course being you can get Pettis at a bigger
discount in rookie drafts. He is a screaming value in rookie drafts
anywhere after the early 2nd round.
Worst Pick of the Round: I don’t
hate any of the picks in this round but to me D.J.
Chark is a player I’m passing on, even at the end of the draft.
Chark blew up the Combine with his combination of size, speed,
and agility, no doubt making NFL owners and fantasy players alike
drool over his potential. I get that, but if you look deeper you
see an inconsistent player who is basically a one-trick pony with
a ton of work to do in his route running and the finer points
of being an NFL wide receiver.
If he landed in the perfect situation maybe he’d have a
chance of fantasy stardom after a year or two, but Jacksonville
is far from an ideal landing spot. Not only does Jacksonville
have a bunch of young receivers already on the roster, who they
seem committed to developing, but they may be the league’s
most run-heavy attack for the foreseeable future. Add this to
the fact that Blake Bortles is still the Jaguars starting QB,
and you have the makings of a nightmare landing spot for an unpolished
rookie receiver.
Chark looks like he will take a few years to make an impact,
if he ever does at all, and by that time most fantasy owners will
have already moved on from him. There are better options available
with a more immediate impact or that have a higher upside.
Post-Draft Overview
We talk about tiers a lot in fantasy football rankings
and there were some fairly clear tier breaks in this year’s
rookie draft.
I put Barkley in his own tier and then the next five running backs
in Tier 2, although I believe Freeman could move up there by Week
1.
The next tier takes you through pick 11 with Sutton having elite
upside, even though you will have to wait at least a year.
Tier 4 takes you to about pick 22, filled with guys that easily
make a fantasy impact in year 1, even if their ceiling is a bit
lower than player drafted in Tiers 1-3.
The last tier takes you through the rest of the draft and other
than a couple standouts (Pettis, Goedert), it’s filled with
long-term projects and guys whose fantasy success probably relies
on others getting injured or falling off the map.
My takeaway: I would look to move my 3rd round picks to try and
jump into a higher tier because, unlike some other years, this
season does not offer a deep pool of fantasy prospects.
