And, down the stretch they come! It’s a phrase better suited
for horse racing, but the sentiment still applies to fantasy football
where most regular seasons are just about done and most fantasy
playoffs are set to begin in the next week or two. It’s critical
that we digest and understand what happens each week so that we
can make good lineup decisions in December. With that in mind, we’re
off and running as we review Week 12…
It Takes a Ben to Ignite a Russell
Ever wonder what sort of fantasy quarterback Russell
Wilson would be if Seattle’s defense wasn’t very good? Sunday
provided a glimpse into that dynamic as Wilson threw for over
300 yards (which he rarely does) and also pitched five touchdowns.
He had previously only thrown for more than one TD in a game this
year twice. Seattle had no answer ultimately for Ben
Roethlisberger, whose 450 yards passing against their supposed
elite defense exposed Seattle as a team living on reputation this
year as much as anything and once again underscored the power
of the Pittsburgh offense when everyone is healthy. The two players
who got taken along for a magical ride in the game also were Doug
Baldwin (145 yards and 3 TDs) and Markus
Wheaton (200+ yards and 1 TD). So, what can we expect from
both passing attacks moving forward? If you own Wilson, Baldwin,
or any other Seahawk not named Rawls, beware. The opponents that
remain are incapable of getting into anything resembling a shoot-out
with Seattle (Matt
Schaub and Nick
Foles for example) and as such, they will return to being
a run-first unit. Losing Jimmy
Graham for the rest of the season will also take its toll
on overall offensive numbers. Pittsburgh, however, will have to
throw to keep up with opponents like Cincinnati and Denver and
should keep the train rolling. Antonio
Brown owners just have to hope that the Markus Wheaton era
is a one-week thing…
The Most Influential Player in Fantasy
Football Right Now Is…
Adrian
Peterson and it’s not close. At a position ransacked by injuries
and running-back-by-committees, comes a throwback player who is
putting up throwback numbers at the position. Peterson was the
only running back to run for over 115 yards this weekend, netting
158 on the ground against the team that came into the game No.1
in the league against the rush. Barring an injury, Peterson looks
poised to make the biggest impact upon the fantasy playoffs of
any player as Minnesota will continue to employ a conservative
run-based attack that features Peterson almost exclusively. When
you look at fantasy football MVPs at the end of this season, expect
Peterson to be the last man standing.
The “Big Three”, Brandon, and Beckham
While Baldwin and Wheaton were doing damage, the best three receivers
in fantasy football were surprisingly quiet…in some cases, shockingly
so. DeAndre
Hopkins appeared to have the matchup of the century vs. the
undermanned and overmatched New Orleans defense, but with Houston
getting up big early and Drew
Brees never being able to solve the Texans’ scheme, Hopkins
was limited to 5 catches for 36 yards, easily his lowest output
on the season. Antonio
Brown suffered a similar fate matched up with Richard Sherman,
and Julio
Jones managed only 56 yards with no TDs against the formidable
Vikings defenders. All in all, it was a no-TD, no-impact sort
of day for the “Big Three”. In terms of top ten WRs who did make
a splash, the biggest splashes came in the form of Brandon
Marshall and Odell
Beckham Jr., who both eclipsed the 130-yard mark and scored
3 TDs combined. Expect Brown, Hopkins, and Jones to bounce back,
but be aware of matchups in December. Julio has two matchups with
Carolina and in the case of Hopkins, the defense that players
play alongside should be taken into account, too.
If You’re a Student of Recent History…
Then, it should have come as no surprise that Matthew
Stafford and Calvin
Johnson shone brightly on Thanksgiving Day in Detroit. Stafford
has averaged 330 yards on Thanksgiving and Calvin Johnson scored
a TD in the Thanksgiving Game for a seventh straight year. Only
this year, Johnson decided it was best to score three times. If
you are a Stafford owner, Thanksgiving can be a bittersweet reminder
of what Stafford is capable of and certainly if you are a Calvin
Johnson owner, the same holds true. Detroit seems to be getting
its act together on both sides of the ball, making Stafford a
solid play moving forward, particularly if you can get to Week
15 when he plays the Saints. I would say that Johnson is set to
tear up the Saints in a few weeks as well, but theDeAndre
Hopkins effect may remain en vogue for the remainder of the
season. Seriously, both guys have good matchups coming up and
remain relevant beyond just their holiday of feasting.
And Now I Will Make The Object Disappear…
Disappearing acts this time of year can keep you out of the playoffs.
First, if we’re going to anoint Todd
Gurley as the next big thing, we have to hold him accountable
for performances that come in well below expectations. The trouble
with Gurley is that St. Louis is so bad at the quarterback position
that teams are now stacking the box just to stop the Rams’ only
big weapon outside of Tavon
Austin. Gurley’s numbers have slowed since Week 8 and this
past weekend, they came to a screeching halt. Gurley should remain
in all lineups, but keep expectations modest at this point as
no RB can be truly dynamic without an NFL-caliber starting QB.
Other “disappearing” players in Week 12 included James
Jones, who teased with a resurgent Week 11 after previously
becoming invisible, and Lamar
Miller, who netted only five carries on Sunday. I’m not a
genius by any means, but even I know that a 58-9 pass to run ratio
isn’t going to win you many games unless Tom
Brady is your quarterback. Apparently, Dolphin ownership knows
that too, as Miami’s OC (Lazor) is without a job as of yesterday
morning.
Eddie Lacy has posted back to back 100-yd
rushing games giving his owners a boost late in the season.
Is a First-Round Bust Still a Bust
if They Turn It On in late November?
It’s a question that brings us to the curious cases of Eddie
Lacy and C.J.
Anderson, who we have chronicled all season long here at the
Buzz. Cris Collinsworth made the observation on Sunday Night Football
that Anderson and Lacy seem to play better as weather conditions
worsen and he may be onto something as both ran for over 100 yards
this past week and scored touchdowns (in Anderson’s case, he scored
two). No RB situations have been more maddening this season for
fantasy owners than the on again, off again sagas in Green Bay
and Denver, but it’s entirely possible that the two runners (Lacy,
Anderson) who were projected to be highly productive before the
season began may be ready to assume much bigger roles down the
stretch. Is it too late for those that drafted Lacy and Anderson?
It very well may be. But, if you traded for one of those previously
labeled first round “busts”, you may get a diamond out of the
deal in the month that is to come. With both offenses struggling
through the air, the prospect of Lacy and Anderson being major
factors down the stretch is on the rise.
It's All About Who You Are Playing
Against
Last week, we regretfully informed readers that the San Diego
offense was in shambles and it still is. What we failed to account
for was just how bad the Jacksonville defense was at stopping
even a disjointed offense. The result? A one-week reprieve from
the demise for Philip
Rivers, Antonio
Gates, and company. Alfred Morris is the same player today
that he was a week ago. It's just amazing how facing the Giants
defense can make him look reborn. The NFL has a few good defenses
right now (Carolina, Houston, Minnesota), but it also has its
share of really bad ones. And truth be told, any skill position
player, no matter his points per game to date, has a better shot
at producing vs. the likes of New Orleans, Pittsburgh, New York
(Giants), Jacksonville, Philadelphia, and San Diego than he does
against the better defenses mentioned. This is fantasy football
101, right? Yes...and no. We all tend to look at situations like
the one Rivers or Morris find themselves in and see it one-dimensionally.
Study the defenses your players are playing against in the weeks
to come. I'm not saying to start Nick Foles if he has a better
matchup than Carson
Palmer, but if all other factors are somewhat close, always
choose the softer defense to start a player against. It could
be the difference between scratching your head wondering what
just happened and calling yourself a league champion.
That's all we've got for you here at the Buzz this week. If you
are a Gronk owner, here's hoping that your guy gets on the field
again soon. He makes all things fantasy more exciting when he's
a part of the mix. See you here again next week- same time and
channel.