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Kirk Hollis | Archive | Email  
Staff Writer


Tuesday Morning Buzz
Fantasy Headlines from Week 13
12/7/15

The majority of fantasy leagues use Weeks 14-16 as their “playoffs”, so the Buzz will be coming at you this week from the perspective of this having been the final week of the regular season. We review and reflect...welcome to another edition of TMB!

Cam Newton

Cam Newton's five touchdown day in Week 13 has vaulted him to second among fantasy quarterbacks.

Quarterbacks Aplenty Rising To The Occasion

Several of the top quarterbacks in fantasy football enjoyed dream matchups in Week 13 and did not disappoint. The three most prominent examples were Cam Newton, Tom Brady, and Ben Roethlisberger who combined for 12 passing touchdowns, 1 rushing touchdown (Brady), over 1,000 yards passing and even 36 yards receiving (again, Brady). For all the articles published over the years about how significant it is to have an elite RB or WR, it is having the right QB more weeks than not that makes the biggest difference in most leagues. I would be curious as to the percentage of teams that own one of these three guys in the playoffs beginning next week. Together with veterans Carson Palmer and Andy Dalton, they have formed a dependable group week in and week out. Can you win a fantasy football title without one of them in your lineup? Sure. Aaron Rodgers could suddenly find lightning in a bottle or one of the young QBs lighting it up this year (see below) could carry you further. Maybe Russell Wilson stays hot (see further below) But, in the end, the most dependable position in fantasy football is QB.

The Offenses Heard ‘Round The Fantasy World Were Playing in…Nashville?

That’s right. Sunday’s biggest game from a yardage/scoring standpoint was waged in Nashville as the Titans outlasted the Jaguars. Jacksonville has become the New Orleans Saints of the AFC. They can’t stop anyone from scoring and in the midst of that reality, they score a lot of points themselves. Blake Bortles has now topped 300 yards five times this year along with tossing 27 touchdowns. Because Bortles is new to the elite fantasy QB category, he’s not as trustworthy as a Brady, Newton, Brees, Palmer, or Roethlisberger, but he’s putting up the same type of numbers. And, he did it with Allen Hurns not even suiting up. The other Allen (Robinson) continues to be the league’s biggest breakout star that fans outside of fantasy football still haven’t heard about. Robinson is on pace for 85 catches, 1,400-plus yards, and 15 TDs this season and owners who took a chance on him in August have been richly rewarded and then some. As for the other side of the ball, Marcus Mariota scored even more fantasy points than Bortles thanks to his running ability. Mariota is a risky start moving forward- more so than Bortles- but, both have the potential to be playoff heroes much as they were in this game. Keep starting T.J. Yeldon and Delanie Walker, too, as both have emerged this past month and could be key December contributors in their own right.

Will A Difference-Maker at Running Back Please Stand Up?

It was such a quiet week for running backs that only one RB ran for more than 120 yards (DeAngelo Williams) and only one scored 20 points or more using standard performance-based scoring (Javorius Allen). A week after lauding Adrian Peterson as the king of the position, he encountered the buzz-saw better known as the Seattle defense and gained only 18 yards on the ground with no touchdowns. Likewise, Todd Gurley continued to fade out of fantasy stardom due to his team having a complete lack of the complementary pieces needed to sustain his production. Other feature backs like Chris Ivory, LeGarrette Blount, and DeMarco Murray also fell flat. Ivory and Blount’s lack of production had to do with their teams playing from behind, but Murray should have put up huge second half numbers with the Eagles cruising in New England. Murray appears to be a square peg trying to fit a round hole in Philly and he simply cannot be trusted heading into the fantasy playoffs. As for Peterson, he’ll rebound rather quickly. I just hope that you had already clinched your playoff berth if you have Peterson because if you were counting on his production in Week 13, it was a tough pill to swallow.

Heroes Come In Every Shape and Size

How about some love for players who are trending up coming into the fantasy playoffs, but are a little under the radar, so to speak. At QB, Russell Wilson had been viewed as a mild disappointment, coming into Week 11, but the past three weeks have seen his stock soar as the top fantasy QB over that stretch of time. The past two weeks, only one quarterback has thrown for more yards than the Jets’ Ryan Fitzpatrick (Roethlisberger) as Fitz has amassed 667 yards. Is he on the cusp of being a top QB or does having Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker make all the difference? A little of both would be true. At RB, I hope you were one of the lucky ones who swooped in and grabbed David Johnson off the waiver wire last week. Johnson had fumbling issues earlier in the year, but his talents were evident on Sunday and he could be a key cog in a number of playoff runs the next three weeks. Finally, which WR has scored the most fantasy points the past two weeks combined? If you said Doug Baldwin (239 yards, 5 TDs), you would be correct. Also asserting major influence at the position the past two weeks have been Jeremy Maclin and Sammy Watkins. They should be in lineups every week moving forward based on Maclin’s high target volume and Watkins’s ability to make big plays downfield.

The Green Bay Packer Debacle

Aaron Rodgers and Mike McCarthy were jumping for joy last Thursday night. The Packers had just defeated the Lions on a desperate heave that Richard Rodgers hauled in to take his night, production-wise, from good to great. But, fantasy owners weren’t laughing. Eddie Lacy, Randall Cobb, and James Jones owners weren’t laughing. They’re afraid to. Three of the past four weeks, the Packers have faced opposing defenses they should have carved up. Instead, their wide receivers have become almost unstartable, even in leagues that require three starters at the position. As for Lacy, his saga this season has prompted an almost every-week mention in this article. This week, it was missing curfew that led to his lack of touches. It also led to a big, fat (no pun intended) zero in the scoring column. The Packers don’t have a single WR that ranks in the top 25 in scoring at that position through 13 weeks. Ditto at RB. Who would have ever dreamed that possible? The playoffs could bring about a measure of redemption as the Cowboys and Raiders lie next on the schedule. But, will owners of Packers players have the intestinal fortitude to stick any of them sans Rodgers and Rodgers in their lineups? Only if they hold their nose while doing it…

Depending on a Running Back in a Committee Can Be Dangerous Business

Imagine if you had both Charcandrick West and Spencer Ware this past weekend and had to figure out which one to start. Or Matt Forte and Jeremy Langford. Maybe you just had one of Jeremy Hill and/or Giovani Bernard. One of the trickiest parts of fantasy football has become examining a Running Back By Committee situation or a shared backfield and trying to predict how those backs will be used on a given week. Will Ronnie Hillman be the primary ballcarrier or will it be C.J. Anderson? The best situations to capitalize on come playoff time are the ones where there is little to no competition for carries. That makes guys like Javorius Allen and Thomas Rawls playoff gold despite their profiles being low before the season started. I'm not saying you shouldn't start a guy like Forte or Hill, but you do need to develop a hypothesis for doing so based on the matchup in front of you. And, here's hoping you don't have West and Ware. That will be an impossible situation to figure out moving forward unless one of them gets hurt.

Monday Night Musings

Finally this week, I hope you didn't start Dez Bryant last night expecting big things. If not for late touchdowns by Darren McFadden and DeSean Jackson, the most valuable players to have coming out of the Washington-Dallas game were kickers Dan Bailey and Dustin Hopkins, which does not speak well of the offenses on the field. I still think Jordan Reed is worth keeping in lineups as is DeSean Jackson in non-PPR leagues...but otherwise, these are offenses to avoid. Speaking of kickers, there were eight missed extra points on Sunday. When you are tracking your kicker's points, it's simply no longer a given that he'll give you a point when his team scores a touchdown. Strange times these are. Frustrated you may become.

That's it for the Buzz this week. Next week, we'll be tweaking the format a bit to bring you fantasy playoff coverage in a way that highlights the difference makers a little more prominently. Best of luck to all of you looking to win a title in the weeks to come. Hope the Buzz can remain a trusted resource for you as we wade through December together. Until next time...

Is a First-Round Bust Still a Bust if They Turn It On in late November?

It’s a question that brings us to the curious cases of Eddie Lacy and C.J. Anderson, who we have chronicled all season long here at the Buzz. Cris Collinsworth made the observation on Sunday Night Football that Anderson and Lacy seem to play better as weather conditions worsen and he may be onto something as both ran for over 100 yards this past week and scored touchdowns (in Anderson’s case, he scored two). No RB situations have been more maddening this season for fantasy owners than the on again, off again sagas in Green Bay and Denver, but it’s entirely possible that the two runners (Lacy, Anderson) who were projected to be highly productive before the season began may be ready to assume much bigger roles down the stretch. Is it too late for those that drafted Lacy and Anderson? It very well may be. But, if you traded for one of those previously labeled first round “busts”, you may get a diamond out of the deal in the month that is to come. With both offenses struggling through the air, the prospect of Lacy and Anderson being major factors down the stretch is on the rise.

It's All About Who You Are Playing Against

Last week, we regretfully informed readers that the San Diego offense was in shambles and it still is. What we failed to account for was just how bad the Jacksonville defense was at stopping even a disjointed offense. The result? A one-week reprieve from the demise for Philip Rivers, Antonio Gates, and company. Alfred Morris is the same player today that he was a week ago. It's just amazing how facing the Giants defense can make him look reborn. The NFL has a few good defenses right now (Carolina, Houston, Minnesota), but it also has its share of really bad ones. And truth be told, any skill position player, no matter his points per game to date, has a better shot at producing vs. the likes of New Orleans, Pittsburgh, New York (Giants), Jacksonville, Philadelphia, and San Diego than he does against the better defenses mentioned. This is fantasy football 101, right? Yes...and no. We all tend to look at situations like the one Rivers or Morris find themselves in and see it one-dimensionally. Study the defenses your players are playing against in the weeks to come. I'm not saying to start Nick Foles if he has a better matchup than Carson Palmer, but if all other factors are somewhat close, always choose the softer defense to start a player against. It could be the difference between scratching your head wondering what just happened and calling yourself a league champion.

That's all we've got for you here at the Buzz this week. If you are a Gronk owner, here's hoping that your guy gets on the field again soon. He makes all things fantasy more exciting when he's a part of the mix. See you here again next week- same time and channel.