The majority of fantasy leagues use Weeks 14-16 as their “playoffs”,
so the Buzz will be coming at you this week from the perspective
of this having been the final week of the regular season. We review
and reflect...welcome to another edition of TMB!
Cam Newton's five touchdown day in Week
13 has vaulted him to second among fantasy quarterbacks.
Quarterbacks Aplenty Rising To The
Occasion
Several of the top quarterbacks in fantasy football enjoyed dream
matchups in Week 13 and did not disappoint. The three most prominent
examples were Cam
Newton, Tom
Brady, and Ben
Roethlisberger who combined for 12 passing touchdowns, 1 rushing
touchdown (Brady), over 1,000 yards passing and even 36 yards
receiving (again, Brady). For all the articles published over
the years about how significant it is to have an elite RB or WR,
it is having the right QB more weeks than not that makes the biggest
difference in most leagues. I would be curious as to the percentage
of teams that own one of these three guys in the playoffs beginning
next week. Together with veterans Carson
Palmer and Andy
Dalton, they have formed a dependable group week in and week
out. Can you win a fantasy football title without one of them
in your lineup? Sure. Aaron
Rodgers could suddenly find lightning in a bottle or one of
the young QBs lighting it up this year (see below) could carry
you further. Maybe Russell
Wilson stays hot (see further below) But, in the end, the
most dependable position in fantasy football is QB.
The Offenses Heard ‘Round The Fantasy
World Were Playing in…Nashville?
That’s right. Sunday’s biggest game from a yardage/scoring standpoint
was waged in Nashville as the Titans outlasted the Jaguars. Jacksonville
has become the New Orleans Saints of the AFC. They can’t stop
anyone from scoring and in the midst of that reality, they score
a lot of points themselves. Blake
Bortles has now topped 300 yards five times this year along
with tossing 27 touchdowns. Because Bortles is new to the elite
fantasy QB category, he’s not as trustworthy as a Brady, Newton,
Brees, Palmer, or Roethlisberger, but he’s putting up the same
type of numbers. And, he did it with Allen
Hurns not even suiting up. The other Allen (Robinson) continues
to be the league’s biggest breakout star that fans outside of
fantasy football still haven’t heard about. Robinson is on pace
for 85 catches, 1,400-plus yards, and 15 TDs this season and owners
who took a chance on him in August have been richly rewarded and
then some. As for the other side of the ball, Marcus
Mariota scored even more fantasy points than Bortles thanks
to his running ability. Mariota is a risky start moving forward-
more so than Bortles- but, both have the potential to be playoff
heroes much as they were in this game. Keep starting T.J.
Yeldon and Delanie
Walker, too, as both have emerged this past month and could
be key December contributors in their own right.
Will A Difference-Maker at Running
Back Please Stand Up?
It was such a quiet week for running backs that only one RB ran
for more than 120 yards (DeAngelo
Williams) and only one scored 20 points or more using standard
performance-based scoring (Javorius
Allen). A week after lauding Adrian
Peterson as the king of the position, he encountered the buzz-saw
better known as the Seattle defense and gained only 18 yards on
the ground with no touchdowns. Likewise, Todd
Gurley continued to fade out of fantasy stardom due to his
team having a complete lack of the complementary pieces needed
to sustain his production. Other feature backs like Chris
Ivory, LeGarrette
Blount, and DeMarco
Murray also fell flat. Ivory and Blount’s lack of production
had to do with their teams playing from behind, but Murray should
have put up huge second half numbers with the Eagles cruising
in New England. Murray appears to be a square peg trying to fit
a round hole in Philly and he simply cannot be trusted heading
into the fantasy playoffs. As for Peterson, he’ll rebound rather
quickly. I just hope that you had already clinched your playoff
berth if you have Peterson because if you were counting on his
production in Week 13, it was a tough pill to swallow.
Heroes Come In Every Shape and Size
How about some love for players who are trending up coming into
the fantasy playoffs, but are a little under the radar, so to
speak. At QB, Russell Wilson had been viewed as a mild disappointment,
coming into Week 11, but the past three weeks have seen his stock
soar as the top fantasy QB over that stretch of time. The past
two weeks, only one quarterback has thrown for more yards than
the Jets’ Ryan
Fitzpatrick (Roethlisberger) as Fitz has amassed 667 yards.
Is he on the cusp of being a top QB or does having Brandon
Marshall and Eric
Decker make all the difference? A little of both would be
true. At RB, I hope you were one of the lucky ones who swooped
in and grabbed David
Johnson off the waiver wire last week. Johnson had fumbling
issues earlier in the year, but his talents were evident on Sunday
and he could be a key cog in a number of playoff runs the next
three weeks. Finally, which WR has scored the most fantasy points
the past two weeks combined? If you said Doug
Baldwin (239 yards, 5 TDs), you would be correct. Also asserting
major influence at the position the past two weeks have been Jeremy
Maclin and Sammy
Watkins. They should be in lineups every week moving forward
based on Maclin’s high target volume and Watkins’s ability to
make big plays downfield.
The Green Bay Packer Debacle
Aaron
Rodgers and Mike McCarthy were jumping for joy last Thursday
night. The Packers had just defeated the Lions on a desperate
heave that Richard
Rodgers hauled in to take his night, production-wise, from
good to great. But, fantasy owners weren’t laughing. Eddie
Lacy, Randall
Cobb, and James
Jones owners weren’t laughing. They’re afraid to. Three of
the past four weeks, the Packers have faced opposing defenses
they should have carved up. Instead, their wide receivers have
become almost unstartable, even in leagues that require three
starters at the position. As for Lacy, his saga this season has
prompted an almost every-week mention in this article. This week,
it was missing curfew that led to his lack of touches. It also
led to a big, fat (no pun intended) zero in the scoring column.
The Packers don’t have a single WR that ranks in the top 25 in
scoring at that position through 13 weeks. Ditto at RB. Who would
have ever dreamed that possible? The playoffs could bring about
a measure of redemption as the Cowboys and Raiders lie next on
the schedule. But, will owners of Packers players have the intestinal
fortitude to stick any of them sans Rodgers and Rodgers in their
lineups? Only if they hold their nose while doing it…
Depending on a Running Back in a Committee
Can Be Dangerous Business
Imagine if you had both Charcandrick
West and Spencer
Ware this past weekend and had to figure out which one to
start. Or Matt Forte and Jeremy
Langford. Maybe you just had one of Jeremy
Hill and/or Giovani
Bernard. One of the trickiest parts of fantasy football has
become examining a Running Back By Committee situation or a shared
backfield and trying to predict how those backs will be used on
a given week. Will Ronnie
Hillman be the primary ballcarrier or will it be C.J.
Anderson? The best situations to capitalize on come playoff
time are the ones where there is little to no competition for
carries. That makes guys like Javorius
Allen and Thomas
Rawls playoff gold despite their profiles being low before
the season started. I'm not saying you shouldn't start a guy like
Forte or Hill, but you do need to develop a hypothesis for doing
so based on the matchup in front of you. And, here's hoping you
don't have West and Ware. That will be an impossible situation
to figure out moving forward unless one of them gets hurt.
Monday Night Musings
Finally this week, I hope you didn't start Dez
Bryant last night expecting big things. If not for late touchdowns
by Darren
McFadden and DeSean
Jackson, the most valuable players to have coming out of the
Washington-Dallas game were kickers Dan
Bailey and Dustin
Hopkins, which does not speak well of the offenses on the
field. I still think Jordan
Reed is worth keeping in lineups as is DeSean
Jackson in non-PPR leagues...but otherwise, these are offenses
to avoid. Speaking of kickers, there were eight missed extra points
on Sunday. When you are tracking your kicker's points, it's simply
no longer a given that he'll give you a point when his team scores
a touchdown. Strange times these are. Frustrated you may become.
That's it for the Buzz this week. Next week, we'll be tweaking
the format a bit to bring you fantasy playoff coverage in a way
that highlights the difference makers a little more prominently.
Best of luck to all of you looking to win a title in the weeks
to come. Hope the Buzz can remain a trusted resource for you as
we wade through December together. Until next time...
Is a First-Round Bust Still a Bust
if They Turn It On in late November?
It’s a question that brings us to the curious cases of Eddie
Lacy and C.J.
Anderson, who we have chronicled all season long here at the
Buzz. Cris Collinsworth made the observation on Sunday Night Football
that Anderson and Lacy seem to play better as weather conditions
worsen and he may be onto something as both ran for over 100 yards
this past week and scored touchdowns (in Anderson’s case, he scored
two). No RB situations have been more maddening this season for
fantasy owners than the on again, off again sagas in Green Bay
and Denver, but it’s entirely possible that the two runners (Lacy,
Anderson) who were projected to be highly productive before the
season began may be ready to assume much bigger roles down the
stretch. Is it too late for those that drafted Lacy and Anderson?
It very well may be. But, if you traded for one of those previously
labeled first round “busts”, you may get a diamond out of the
deal in the month that is to come. With both offenses struggling
through the air, the prospect of Lacy and Anderson being major
factors down the stretch is on the rise.
It's All About Who You Are Playing
Against
Last week, we regretfully informed readers that the San Diego
offense was in shambles and it still is. What we failed to account
for was just how bad the Jacksonville defense was at stopping
even a disjointed offense. The result? A one-week reprieve from
the demise for Philip
Rivers, Antonio
Gates, and company. Alfred
Morris is the same player today that he was a week ago. It's
just amazing how facing the Giants defense can make him look reborn.
The NFL has a few good defenses right now (Carolina, Houston,
Minnesota), but it also has its share of really bad ones. And
truth be told, any skill position player, no matter his points
per game to date, has a better shot at producing vs. the likes
of New Orleans, Pittsburgh, New York (Giants), Jacksonville, Philadelphia,
and San Diego than he does against the better defenses mentioned.
This is fantasy football 101, right? Yes...and no. We all tend
to look at situations like the one Rivers or Morris find themselves
in and see it one-dimensionally. Study the defenses your players
are playing against in the weeks to come. I'm not saying to start
Nick
Foles if he has a better matchup than Carson
Palmer, but if all other factors are somewhat close, always
choose the softer defense to start a player against. It could
be the difference between scratching your head wondering what
just happened and calling yourself a league champion.
That's all we've got for you here at the Buzz this week. If you
are a Gronk owner, here's hoping that your guy gets on the field
again soon. He makes all things fantasy more exciting when he's
a part of the mix. See you here again next week- same time and
channel.