Mega-Bye Weeks have begun. With so many players on the sidelines,
information becomes critical. At the Buzz, we understand and in
response offer up this Week 8 recap. Onward!
Derek Carr has finished as a QB1 in four
out of eight games while sporting a 17:3 TD to INT ratio.
The Raiders: Relevant Once Again
The Raiders will get a lot of press this week for forging a 6-2
record through eight weeks. And, good for them. But, being 6-2 doesn’t
make you a fantasy relevant franchise week in and week out. Throwing
for 513 yards and 4 TDs very much does. Derek Carr has been sneaking
up on greatness for over a year now as few people actually knew
he threw for nearly 4,000 yards last year to go along with 32 TDs
against only 13 INTs. This year’s pace is even better as Carr
is currently on track for 4,642 yards passing, 34 TDs and 6 INTs.
Those are easily top shelf fantasy starting QB numbers. In addition
to Carr, two of fantasy’s top 10 WRs are also in Oakland as
Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree have combined for 1,356 yards
and 8 TDs. Can both keep up the pace? Considering Oakland lacks
a true bell-cow back and doesn’t have the defense to slow
other teams down (dead last in passing yards allowed), the future
looks bright for this trio. But, Denver’s pass defense looms
in Week 9, so temper expectations for the immediate future while
elevating them longer term.
The Incredible Significance of “Game
Flow”
Which QB was better in Week 8: Cam Newton or Blake Bortles? To the
casual, or non-fantasy fan, the answer might be Newton. After all,
he led his team to a ten-point win in which the team (Carolina)
scored 30 points. But, in terms of standard fantasy scoring, he
netted 14 points while Blake Bortles produced 32. Bortles looked
bad for nearly three quarters and struggled to generate consistent
offense. And yet, when the smoke cleared in Nashville, his numbers
were some of the best of the week. All of that is to say that game
flow remains the biggest factor in fantasy football. Teams that
fall behind early will throw, throw, throw and will accumulate big
fourth quarter points against soft, prevent defenses. On the flip
side, when you build a big lead (Carolina), a guy like Jonathan
Stewart (120 total yards, 2 TDs) becomes the primary beneficiary
as the clock-eating lead back. So, if you’re looking for QB/WR/TE
production, falling behind is often best while getting ahead by
a couple of scores always improves the fortunes of a running back.
Unless, of course, you’re a Tom Brady owner as Brady defies
all game flow rules by simply keeping his foot on the pedal until
mid-fourth quarter. It’s nice to know that somebody is counter
culture.
Better not Fumble…or Else
Sometimes, a fumble can lead to a virtual benching the following
week for a running back. Sometimes, the benching is immediate. Such
was the case with two running backs on Sunday, one of which was
saved by a TD run and the other of which likely lost some games
for a whole host of owners. Ryan Mathews’ second lost fumble
of the season in Week 7 no doubt played into the eight snaps he
received Sunday night. Meanwhile, Darren Sproles hogged nearly all
of the work out of the backfield including a number of runs on first
down. Like I said, if you started Mathews, at least you received
points for his one-yard TD plunge. No such luck for those counting
on Mark Ingram. Ingram’s day ended abruptly after his second
lost fumble in as many weeks and Tim Hightower (26 carries, 102
yards) took the reins from there. Sproles and Hightower are both
long in the tooth and not built for workhorse roles week in and
week out, so don’t expect Mathews and Ingram to be phased
out completely. But, if you were counting on one of those guys to
be your No.2 RB in November/December, you might want to start making
alternate plans.
How to Ruin a Perfect Matchup: A Seahawks
Tale
Week 8 should have been the beginning of something good for the
Seattle offense, particularly Russell Wilson. After all, the game
was in New Orleans with perfect (dome) conditions and a horrible
defense on tap. But, when the smoke cleared on Sunday afternoon,
it was the same old outcome for Wilson and his crew. Wilson’s
third straight game without a touchdown pass was almost unfathomable
given his opponent and likely represented the last straw for owners
waiting on him to turn his season around. The slump has now turned
into something much worse: A season killer. Look around your leagues
and see which players the worst teams in the league have in common.
I’d venture to say Wilson will come up often in those examinations
along with a couple of other players to be noted shortly…
The Beginning of the Booker Era?
By far, the biggest fantasy football news between Weeks 7 and 8
was the injury and subsequent loss of C.J.
Anderson for the remainder of the fantasy season. As a result,
Devontae
Booker owners were given a gift that they couldn’t wait to open
on Sunday. So, what was the verdict? Let’s just say the Booker show
opened to mixed reviews. He found the end zone for a second straight
week (good), and he caught 5 passes (good), but he also averaged
less than 3 yards a carry on 19 totes (not good). Teams are going
to load the box to try to take away Denver’s running game and the
result is going to be a lot more games like what we saw on Sunday.
Bottom line: Booker is a fantastic RB2 for the rest of the season.
But, if you’re looking for RB1 numbers, you’re probably being more
wishful than realistic.
Nothing Restores an Offense like
a Trip to Cleveland
Earlier this season, the Buzz declared the Jets to be one of the
top five offenses in the league. Famous last words. Although the
loss of Eric
Decker did throw the offense out of rhythm, the Jets have
been a work in progress ever since that declaration, particularly
in the passing game. All that said, nothing restores offensive
prowess like a game against the Browns. Cleveland under Hue Jackson
is good enough on offense to compete with teams for three quarters,
but their defense doesn't allow them to prevail. And so, predictably,
Matt
Forte enjoyed a two-TD game and Quincy
Enunwa returned to being a fantasy factor. As for who will
enjoy Cleveland's hospitality next, think Cowboys, Ravens, Steelers,
and Giants in that order. Speaking of Cowboys...
Dak & Dez: Trending Up
First of all, welcome back Dez
Bryant! The world of fantasy football is more exciting with
you in it. Now, let's talk about who benefits most with Bryant
back in the fold. Dak
Prescott without Dez Bryant has been solid in terms of fantasy
production, netting at least 20 points (standard performance scoring)
in each of his past five games. Those games included three rushing
TDs to boost overall totals. With Bryant, however, Prescott can
generate better “downfield” yardage to go along with the rushing
touchdowns, making him a budding version of Cam
Newton. With a great offensive line and a superstar young
RB, Dallas will likely remain less pass-happy than some teams,
but Prescott is a bona fide QB1 with Bryant and if you've got
him as your backup, you might think about trading your “starter”
for a position of greater need and sticking with Dak from now
on. And, as is the case when Bryant is healthy, all other Dallas
WRs will now disappear.
Tyreek Hill: An Intriguing Prospect
Living in Oklahoma, I got to watch a lot of Tyreek
Hill when he played for the OSU Cowboys several years ago.
And, I should tell you that he's simply the fastest football player
I've ever seen. Now, Hill has scored four touchdowns for Kansas
City and is catching 85 percent of his targets. The last two weeks
alone, he's scored in double digits while tallying over 100 yards
from scrimmage in Week 8. Hill is smallish, but he's an inch taller
than the Ravens' Steve
Smith and Smith's career has been borderline Hall of Fame,
so size doesn't always limit a player's potential or production.
I guess my thought is that Hill may be surpassing Jeremy
Maclin as the best fantasy wide receiver on a team that seems
to be increasing his role from week to week. He won't be a PPR
giant anytime soon, but if your league is just about yardage and
TDs, Hill is a WR3 at this point and could trend even higher as
fall rolls forward. He is uniquely talented.
And, Now Some Mid-Season Awards: First,
The Good Ones
