Though I’ve been authoring this Top 10 Dropouts series since
2011, it’s always somehow difficult selecting three representatives
from each position (QB, RB, and WR) to wax cynical about. These
players are stars! They played amazing football last season! What
makes me think they wouldn’t be equally amazing this coming
season?! Any psychologist worth his or her salt recognizes this
as good ol’ fashioned recency bias, which is more or less
what this article is and has been about for over a decade. Last
year’s stars won’t be this year’s stars because
the math says they won’t but our imperfect brains, mine very
much included, can’t comprehend that basic scientific fact.
The end. OK, not really ‘cuz that would be a pretty short
and uninteresting article. Let’s talk a bit more about WHO
is most likely to disappoint in 2023 and, more specifically, why.
Note: All rankings are based on FFToday’s
Non-PPR league scoring.
Who Missed the Cut in 2022 (8/10): J. Taylor, J. Mixon, N. Harris,
J. Conner, E. Elliott, D. Harris, A. Gibson, & A. Kamara
For the fourth time since 2010, 80% of the league’s most productive
backs failed to retain Top 10 status from one year to the next.
This is not particularly alarming or compelling data as the average
turnover percentage during that stretch is just north of 65%. Simply
put, no position experiences more turnover year in and year out.
Those holding the purse strings, moreover, have obviously caught
on if this summer’s incipient running back revolt is any indication.
Jonathan Taylor, 2021’s top dog, is one of those rock-toting
revolutionaries, openly warring with Colts’ owner Jim Irsay
Jr. on social media as he agitates to be traded or break the bank
with his second NFL deal. The former All-Pro’s case wasn’t
helped by an injury-plagued 2022 campaign, wherein he missed six
games and toppled down the ranks to RB34. Cincinnati’s Joe Mixon must have seen the writing on the wall following a solid but
unspectacular season (three DNPs and a slip to RB14), as he worked
with Cincy to restructure his contract this past off-season (lowered
his own price tag to keep the job). Take away a 153-yard, 4-TD outing
v. lowly Carolina in Week 9 and Mixon would have averaged barely
50 yards per game last season.
Najee Harris won’t hit free agency for a couple more years,
but had this to say on the topic of running back devaluation recently:
“The only time they choose to say it’s devalued is when
it’s time to pay the running back.” Should make for
a fun contract negotiation in 2027! Harris has a chance to make
the Steelers’ brass squirm then (he was still RB12 last year),
but I’m doubting Pittsburgh’s former meal ticket, James Conner, will hold the same leverage in Arizona. Conner slid to RB2
status last season when, predictably, he failed to score even half
the touchdowns (8) he’d scored in 2021 (18). And he ain’t
getting any younger. Neither is Ezekiel Elliott, only two months
younger than Conner and the only Top 10 dropout currently unemployed.
Elliott wasn’t bad in 2022 for the Cowboys but Tony Pollard
was better (and younger…and cheaper). Thanks for the memories,
Zeke!
The final three dropouts—Damien Harris, Antonio Gibson, and
Alvin Kamara—combined to miss 10 games in 2022, a running
back occupational hazard, for sure. They were more likely undone,
however, by poor quarterback play and general offensive instability.
Kamara’s the most talented of the three (by a lot), but may
still be suspended under the league’s personal conduct policy,
making it unlikely he’ll regain Top 10 status this coming
year.
Most Likely Candidates to Fall from the Top 10 This Year:
Josh Jacobs,
LV: If Jonathan Taylor can topple from RB1 to out of the
Top 10 in the span of 12 months, so can Josh Jacobs. It works in
the other direction too, BTW, as Jacobs demonstrated by vaulting
from RB14 in 2021 to the top of the heap last season, edging out
Austin Ekeler and Derrick Henry by a touchdown for the crown. Interestingly,
he also scored the fewest points by an RB1 (277.3) since Devonta
Freeman in 2015 (247.9).
This year-to-year volatility and lowering productivity ceiling
may help explain why NFL GMs are reluctant to ink top rushers
to big contracts and why Las Vegas, in particular, didn’t
pick up the fifth-year option on Jacobs’ rookie contract
before last year. They’ve now franchise tagged him heading
into 2023 which has, predictably, ruffled feathers and led to
a training camp holdout. To be clear, I DON’T think said
holdout will last and I DO think Jacobs will play a full slate
of games this year, assuming he stays healthy. Will it be for
the Raiders, though? There are plenty of rumblings out there.
Uncertainty regarding where Jacobs will play in 2023 is just
one reason I think his days in the RB Top 10 are numbered. The
other is last year’s workload. His 393 touches led all running
backs (11 more than wrecking ball Derrick Henry) and were 87 more
than he’d ever compiled in four previous seasons. That’s
about four games’ worth of extra mileage and we know what
usually happens, Henry notwithstanding, when backs get used that
frequently: They don’t the next season and usually because
they can’t (read: the injury bug catches up with them).
He won people chips last year, but you’re better off drafting
the next Jacobs in 2023 than actual Jacobs.
Tony
Pollard, DAL: Pollard was Dallas’
best back in 2022, as mentioned above, despite being out-touched
by Zeke and also scoring the same number of touchdowns (12) as
the Cowboys’ de jure RB1. He accomplished that by being
way more efficient than Elliott, to the tune of 410 total yards.
Surely he’s capable of even better digits in 2023 now that
he has the backfield all to himself, right?
Probably, but there’s something about the situation that
doesn’t sit right. For starters, Pollard has never carried
the ball 200 times in a season, which is probably understandable
since he trends smaller than most meal tickets. Heck, he couldn’t
even command a full 50-50 share last season when, to anyone watching,
it was clear he electrified the Dallas offense. Is Coach Mac worried
he might break the slighter-of-build star if he overuses him?
We shouldn’t forget that, despite achieving Top 10 status
in the regular season, the last thing we saw Pollard do in 2022-23
is crumple to the turf in the NFC Divisional Playoff v. San Francisco
after breaking his left leg.
I’m also concerned that what made Pollard great last season
(and to a lesser extent, the year prior) is that he was a perfect
complement to his sturdier, stodgier teammate. The lightning was
definitely better than the thunder, granted, but what happens
when there’s no thunder at all? Unless Dallas adds another
body—and they just might now that Ronald Jones is suspended
the first two games for PEDs—Pollard is actually the LARGEST
running back on the roster. Throwing pure smoke is fun, but mixing
in some off-speed stuff can be more effective. He’ll probably
make a liar out of me, but I’m not convinced the alpha role
will add much more to Tony Pollard’s bottom line in 2023.
Jamaal
Williams, NO; Dalvin
Cook, TBD; and Miles
Sanders, CAR: It isn’t difficult picking three
dropout running backs most years and especially not last year
when I went three for three (Conner, Elliott, and Harris). What
if we made it more challenging and tried to go five for five?
These three were terrific in 2022 and their respective employers
were so thankful for their contributions that they…didn’t
retain their services. Williams signed a FA deal with the Saints,
where he’ll play first fiddle if Alvin Kamara is suspended
and second fiddle once he returns. Cook is still looking for work,
though he’s been most commonly linked to the Jets or Dolphins,
depending on the day. Sanders signed a four-year deal with the
Panthers, essentially guaranteeing he won’t return to the
Super Bowl any time soon.
Of the three, Cook has the best chance of replicating his Top
10 performance from 2022, mostly because he’ll likely sign
with a contender, meaning he’ll be surrounded by other great
skill position players. It never hurts playing in a versatile
offense. Just ask Miles Sanders, who managed to average 11.8 FPts/G
despite being the fourth most interesting weapon behind Jalen
Hurts, A.J. Brown, and DeVonta Smith in Philadelphia. Williams
joins a middling Saints offense that could, in theory, make great
strides with new QB Derek Carr under center. However, he plays
the same position as the team’s best player, meaning he’ll
(eventually?) be thrust right back into the role he played for
many years in Green Bay.
Look, it actually IS difficult picking the best running backs
before they play the games. I’d suggest prioritizing star
WRs and QBs who can run first, then adding value at this position
in later rounds or with fewer auction dollars.
