Though I’ve been authoring this Top 10 Dropouts series since
2011, it’s always somehow difficult selecting three representatives
from each position (QB, RB, and WR) to wax cynical about. These
players are stars! They played amazing football last season! What
makes me think they wouldn’t be equally amazing this coming
season?! Any psychologist worth his or her salt recognizes this
as good ol’ fashioned recency bias, which is more or less
what this article is and has been about for over a decade. Last
year’s stars won’t be this year’s stars because
the math says they won’t but our imperfect brains, mine very
much included, can’t comprehend that basic scientific fact.
The end. OK, not really ‘cuz that would be a pretty short
and uninteresting article. Let’s talk a bit more about WHO
is most likely to disappoint in 2023 and, more specifically, why.
Note: All rankings are based on FFToday’s
Non-PPR league scoring.
Who Missed the Cut in 2020 (6/10): C. Kupp, D. Samuel, J. Chase,
M. Evans, D. Johnson, & DK Metcalf
Last year’s 60% dropout rate was right on average for the
position since 2011. Despite the high turnover, no fewer than four
and no more than seven WRs have failed to preserve Top 10 status
at the position during that 13-year stretch, making it more predictable
than the QB and RB positions, if not exactly the most stable.
Just as with the RBs, the most prominent dropout was the one
who fell from the greatest height, 2021’s WR1 Cooper Kupp.
Kupp suffered a high ankle sprain in mid-November and never played
again, which is a shame since his 14.3 FPts/G led all receivers,
including 2022’s WR1, Justin Jefferson. 2022 was no kinder
to 2021’s WR2, Deebo Samuel, who toppled even further down
the ranks than Kupp (WR28) despite playing four more games than
his Los Angeles counterpart. Dueling sprains (MCL and ankle) were
to blame this time, but Samuel’s usage and demolition derby
style make him high risk, high reward almost every season.
Ja’Marr Chase missed three more games (five) than the Top
10 receivers missed collectively, fully explaining his 2022 tumble.
But he didn’t tumble far (WR12) thanks to a 13.3 FPts/G
mark, putting him behind only Kupp and last year’s two best
wideouts (JJ and Davante) on a per-game basis. Mike Evans, on
the other hand, slipped under the 10.0 FPts/G mark for the first
time since 2017. And that was WITH Tom Brady at the helm. Does
he freefall down to low-end WR2 or WR3 range with Baker Mayfield
(presumably) under center?
Last year’s final two dropouts were, unlike the others,
completely healthy in 2022. DK Metcalf can point to a declining
TD rate (6 v. 12 in 2021) and a shrinking YPC average as the reasons
he failed to crack the Top 10, though those can’t really
be blamed on poor quarterback play. Diontae Johnson probably could
blame his 2022 death spiral to WR46 on poor quarterback play as
Mitchell Trubisky and rookie Kenny Pickett combined to throw just
11 TD passes all season. Only problem is that Johnson caught none
of them. Ouch.
Most Likely Candidates to Fall from the Top 10 This Year:
CeeDee Lamb,
DAL: I’ve already told you no fewer than four WRs in every
season since 2011 have dropped out of the Top 10. Yet, I look down
the list of 2022’s best at the position and see no obvious candidates
to fade aside from those who will lose time to injury, a death-and-taxes
guarantee that can’t be predicted. Lamb’s only missed one game in
his three NFL seasons, amazingly, despite a very narrow frame and
a lot of work in the middle of the field. Nevertheless, there are
reasons he could still take a step back.
For starters, Dallas parted ways with offensive coordinator Kellen
Moore this past February despite leading the league in total offense
and scoring offense as recently as 2021 (and still ranking fourth
in the latter category last year). Coach Mike McCarthy blasted
Moore after the firing for wanting to “light the scoreboard
up.” Last I checked, that’s the literal job description
for an OC. The Cowboys’ loss will be the Chargers’
gain, it would appear, as if I needed another reason to be all
in on Justin Herbert this coming season (GO DUCKS!). Dallas’
offense won’t collapse by any means, but figures to trend
even more conservative than it did last season (upper third in
run percentage).
When Dak Prescott does air it out, he’ll almost certainly target
his WR1 less frequently than he did in 2022. Lamb’s 28.1% team
target share was fourth overall, but that’s because the next most
reliable target, Dalton Schultz, wasn’t even a WR. Schultz moved
across the state to Houston, so Dallas brought in Brandin Cooks,
the well-traveled but always reliable veteran. Cooks is near the
end but does diversify the scheme. More conservative offense plus
more competition for WR looks = possible trouble for CeeDee in
2023.
Amari
Cooper, CLE: The most obvious reason
Lamb got all those looks last season is that his former running
mate, Cooper, the guy who used to command so much attention in
Dallas, moved on to the AFC after the 2021 season. Most believed
the trade to Ohio would darken Cooper’s prospects, especially
when the NFL handed down an 11-game suspension to his presumptive
battery mate Deshaun Watson several months later, but…surprise!
All Coop did in 2022, playing for a worse offense, was set a PR
for total fantasy points (170.0).
That offense could and probably should be better in 2023, especially
now that Watson has shaken off the cobwebs, but it’s fair
to question whether Cooper can replicate his phenomenal 2022 campaign.
Though the Brownies weren’t quite as reliant on him as his
former squad was on Lamb, his team target percentage was still
very high (24.4%, good for 13th overall). Cleveland went out and
grabbed Elijah Moore during the off-season, a high-potential reclamation
project from the Jets who boosts positional depth. A 1-2-3 of
Cooper-DPJ-Moore is inarguably better than the Cooper-DPJ-Bell
trio the Browns’ braintrust rolled out last season. Don’t
know who Bell is? My point exactly.
The other reason I don’t think Coop can reproduce his stellar
2022 season is, admittedly, a much squishier one: There are simply
too many other great or soon-to-be-great WRs likely to elbow him
out of the way and crack the Top 10 ranks in 2023. We’ve
already talked about some above (Kupp, Samuel, Chase, Metcalf),
but what about the guy who made Elijah Moore expendable in New
York, Garrett Wilson? I hear he’s playing with a future
HOF QB now. Cooper’s still a very solid WR2 in most leagues,
but you’ll have to spend like he’s a clear WR1. Don’t.
DeVonta
Smith, PHI: This is gonna end up
sounding like Smith slander, but nothing could be further from
the truth. It wasn’t too many years ago I was watching him,
like a lot of you, decimate THE Ohio State University to the tune
of 12 receptions, 215 yards, and 3 house calls in the span of
about one NCAA Championship half (before getting injured). Anyone
similarly mesmerized by his performance that evening knew Smith
would be a star at the next level and, with a few good breaks
and no serious injuries, a possible Canton enshrinee. It’s
still too early to start chiseling that bust or fitting him for
a mustard-colored jacket, but the Bama product has already benefited
from at least one really good break in his fledgling NFL career:
being drafted by an ascendant Eagles franchise.
Oddly, Philly’s talent base and overall success is one
reason I’m ever so slightly bearish on Smith heading into
2023. Put plainly, Nick Sirianni et al. don’t need him to
be a superstar yet but, rather, to complement an existing one,
A.J. Brown. In other words, his star trajectory doesn’t
completely match the team’s championship timeline. The Eagles
are ready to win a Super Bowl now and though Smith would be a
huge contributor to that effort should it happen, he wouldn’t
likely be the WR1 for that Lombardi-hoisting squad.
I’m also a bit concerned about Smith’s 2022 splits,
quite frankly. Through Week 12 last season, about when we were
jockeying for fantasy playoff position, he’d only averaged
7.2 FPts/G. For perspective, that’s about what Isaiah Hodgins
averaged last season (no Beaver shade intended). Smith ended up
averaging 13.8 the rest of the way, a late-season surge that,
while awesome, is probably anomalous. He’s great but be
cautious.
