I was scrolling through my Twitter feed this week when I stumbled
upon an interesting little tidbit. Through five weeks, the Duke
is No.1 in YAC, No.1 in Pro Football Focus’ Elusive Rating,
No.2 in yds/touch, and No.3 in yds/carry. Just one problem: He’s
touching the rock fewer than 10 times per game and averaging only
5.8 FPts/G, not significantly more than he averaged last year
while buried behind Nick Chubb in Cleveland. If there were ever
a week to gamble on Johnson’s eye-popping fundamentals,
this might be it. The Texans dropped 50+ on the Falcons and now
draw a juggernaut KC squad coming off a stinky 10-point outing
against Indy last Sunday night. I expect Houston to be playing
catch-up all day and that should translate into more Johnson and
less Carlos Hyde. Play the lottery and get him in your lineup.
Looking for another lottery ticket? The Rams have been relatively
conservative with Todd Gurley so far this season, as expected,
but he’s still a TD machine, which is why he’s currently
RB15 despite 42 fewer touches through the season’s first
five games compared to last season. Now comes word that Gurley
was a surprise addition to the injury list, sitting out practice
Wednesday due to a left thigh contusion. It’s too early
to tell if he’ll be able to suit up for the NFC West showdown
with red-hot San Francisco, but it’s at least concerning
and might give Sean McVay enough reason to even the workload more
than he has to date. Brown’s touches are also down a bit,
for sure, and that Niners front is no joke, but I have a gut feeling
he could be a worthwhile flex play, nonetheless. Keep him in mind.
Johnson finished his rookie year as RB18 on a per-game basis thanks
to a snappy 5.4 yds/carry average, trailing only Aaron
Jones amongst qualified ball carriers. That per-carry average
is down a full two yards this season, but he’s only slipped to RB22
per game and has actually increased his average output from 10.9
to 11.8 points. What gives? Unlike the aforementioned Gurley, Johnson
has touched the ball 32 MORE times through Week 5 than he did last
season. That’s eight more per game (the Lions have already had their
bye week) and he’s coming off a career high 28 touches against Kansas
City in Week 4. One can cover a multitude of statistical sins with
increased volume. I love this matchup against a tough Green Bay
defense that is, strangely, lousy against the run (5.2 yds/carry).
Start Kerryon Monday.
Volume’s about all Bell has going for him through five weeks
and four games of being a New York Jet. He’s averaging 24.5
touches/game thus far, trailing only Christian McCaffrey, and
is clearly the centerpiece of Adam Gase’s offense. I say
that like it’s a good thing but it absolutely hasn’t
been. Quite to the contrary, Gase, an alleged offensive mastermind,
presides over the worst statistical offense in the league (179.5
yds/game), a league that still includes the Miami Dolphins, I
might add. In their defense, not having Sam Darnold since Week
1 hasn’t helped, but it’s still pretty concerning
that Bell is averaging under three yards/carry. That would put
him on track for a career low by a pretty fair margin. Darnold’s
back but hasn’t played in a month. You probably don’t
sit him, but don’t go expecting miracles either.
The Bucs face division rival Carolina in Week 5, the first rematch
of the 2019 season, and you might be inclined to start Barber
considering he carried the ball 23 times for 82 yards and a score
against them back in Week 2. I can’t really fault that logic,
but I can poke a few holes in it. For starters, Barber’s
carried the ball only 30 times for 99 yards in the three games
since that earlier matchup. Meanwhile, his running mate, Ronald Jones, has carried it 42 times for 185 yards in those same three
contests. Moreover, Jones only garnered four looks in that Week
2 tilt, meaning in the intervening several weeks, this has become
a true Tampa timeshare, slanted in favor of the younger Jones.
You might be desperate and he’s not completely useless,
but Barber’s the second best Bucs RB to own.
I think this goes without saying, but Miami’s offense is
toxic in 2019 and even a competitive matchup against the similarly
winless Washington squad shouldn’t tempt you to do anything
rash, like start the current RB48. Drake hasn’t yet rushed
for even 50 yards in a game or scored a touchdown, and is only
garnering 11 looks a game through five weeks. Making matters worse,
he’s experienced some ball security issues, something his
coach, Brian Flores, has publicly commented upon. If Flores is
anything like his mentor, Bill Belichick, a fumbling problem could
land Miami’s most talented back on the bench (or out of
town) sooner rather than later. Nobody’s guaranteed anything
in this obvious tank year for the Fish. It looks like a week to
swallow hard and maybe give him some play, but Drake still scares
me, as does everyone wearing aqua and orange.
