Every year, rest assured someone at some point during each of
your drafts will utter some variation of the words “value
pick.” But what exactly is a value pick? What is value?
Value is a relative term that changes based on public perception.
When I consider value, I’m looking for a positive return
on my investment. Just because a player has an a fourth round
ADP and is still sitting there in the sixth round does not make
him good value. At the same time, taking a player a round or two
above his ADP is not necessarily bad value. Everything is relative.
My goal in every pick I make is to take a player I believe will
have a higher ADP the following season.
Last season, DeAndre Hopkins had a third round ADP. This year,
he has a first round ADP. Hopkins gave owners one hell of a positive
return on investment. On the flip side, DeMarco Murray had a second
round ADP. This year, he’s retired, and not because he went
out on top. That’s the type of pick we hope to avoid.
Let’s take a look at which QBs I expect to outperform their
ADPs and which I expect to fail.
Jared Goff's current ADP is another example
of how deep the quarterback position is in 2018.
The case for Goff being undervalued: Quarterback
of an ascending offense with an excellent head coach, coming off
a low-end QB1 finish in a breakout season.
The case against Goff being undervalued: He
was extremely efficient last season despite throwing fewer than
500 passes and the offense still revolves around Todd
Gurley.
Verdict: It really all boils down to cost. Quarterback
is so deep this year that it just makes sense to wait until the
double-digit rounds to grab a player that has already proven he
can be a QB1. I am not suggesting that Goff is somehow a top six
fantasy player at his position, although he certainly has that
type of upside. I am merely suggesting that Goff is a QB1 that
is not being drafted as a QB1. Goff will now be entering his second
year in Sean McVay’s offense and will only be given the opportunity
to do more as he continues to improve. The Rams didn’t bring in
Brandin
Cooks just to be window dressing. Goff is going to have the
chance to throw and I would expect him to exceed 500 pass attempts
and 4,000 yards this season. Goff should at least be a low-end
QB1 and is an excellent late-round QB target.
The case for Prescott being undervalued: He
was the overall QB1 for the first seven weeks of last season and
comes with a high weekly rushing floor.
The case against Prescott being undervalued:
Who exactly is he throwing to?
Verdict: This is probably the biggest slam dunk
of my overvalued/undervalued series. Dak Prescott as the QB20?
In the words of Cris Carter, Cmon Man! I realize that from Weeks
8-16, Prescott was the QB27, and that is an incredibly low floor,
but consider the circumstances. Prescott plays for a complete
nothing of a head coach. That’s both good and bad. It is good
because Jason Garrett won’t actively hurt the Cowboys chances
of winning. It is bad because Garrett has no ability to make adjustments
when adversity hits. That is exactly what happened when Tyron
Smith went down and Dez
Bryant showed no ability to separate or make contested (or
even simple) catches. The entire offense worked against Prescott
last year, but the underlying tape and metrics show a quarterback
with an excellent command of the offense that very often made
the correct pre-snap reads, correct audibles, and correct decisions.
Presecott is still an excellent player with a bright future and
he was an elite QB1 for roughly 1.5 seasons! That has to count
for something. At the bare minimum, he warrants consideration
as a mid-to-high QB2, especially given that we know he has top
five upside. I really can’t envision a scenario, even with the
Cowboys depleted receiving corps, where Prescott doesn’t beat
his QB20 ADP.
The case for Watson being overvalued: His 9.3%
touchdown rate is unsustainable and we’ve only seen a seven game
sample size.
The case against Watson being overvalued: The
Texans have a bad defense and Watson could eclipse 550 pass attempts
to go along with an excellent rushing floor.
Verdict: The problem with Deshaun Watson is
that he was a bad quarterback last season that produced elite
numbers due to volume and luck. Watson threw 13 interceptable
passes and had 14 danger plays in just seven games. Those numbers
extrapolated over a full season are Deshone Kizer level bad. A
lot of Watson’s production also came in garbage time after he
played terribly for more than half a game and lit it up with his
team down multiple scores. I have no doubt that Watson will throw
a lot of touchdowns and a lot of interceptions. He will be a fantasy
QB1. But the overall second best fantasy quarterback? What exactly
would warrant taking a bad real life quarterback that has less
than half a season of production over numerous veterans that have
been fantasy QB1s their entire careers like Russell
Wilson, Drew
Brees, and Tom
Brady? Putting aside the fact that there is no quarterback
I would take in the fourth round and only one, Aaron
Rodgers, that I would take in the fifth, Watson is overvalued
by multiple rounds. He should be going in the late single-digits.
Even if Watson has an excellent year, he will have a very difficult
time matching his ranking or ADP.
The case for Wentz being overvalued: He had
an unsustainably high touchdown rate and may not be ready for
Week 1.
The case against Wentz being overvalued: He’s
a third year quarterback coming off what would’ve likely been
a 40 touchdown, 10 interception season had he not gotten hurt.
Verdict: Wentz is difficult to evaluate because
I’m still not entirely convinced he will be ready for Week 1,
which will significantly impact his ADP. However, I do think his
health concerns are already somewhat baked into his price. If
he were fully healthy, he would probably be a fifth round pick,
which would result in him appearing on this list anyway. Wentz
threw a touchdown on 7.5% of his passes last season. Wentz is
a true gunslinger with 23 money throws, but also 32 danger plays,
fourth and seventh in the league respectively, in just 13 games.
He did so with some of the worst receiving help in the league.
His wide receivers ranked 32nd in target separation at just 1.10
yards. Once again, it comes down to price. This is simply too
high for a quarterback that belongs in the “pack” with Kirk
Cousins, Jimmy
Garoppolo, Ben
Roethlisberger, Matthew
Stafford, etc. Wentz is clearly nowhere near as bad as the
QB we saw in 2016. He is also nowhere near as good as the QB we
saw in 2017. The answer, as always, lies somewhere in the middle
but the price leans towards recency bias. Wentz will be just fine
for your fantasy team if he plays, but a single-digit round pick
is better spent on another position.
