Melvin Gordon, RB SD – I normally don’t subscribe to the notion of predicting a player’s productivity based on the college he attended and that school’s history of producing stars at his position. I think in most cases that’s a narrow-minded viewpoint. But there are some instances that make you wonder. Case in point: the Wisconsin Badgers and the running back position. Let’s look at ‘em, shall we? Ron Dayne. Michael Bennett. Brian Calhoun. Montee Ball. Melvin Gordon. All were third round selections or higher, and all of them had less than stellar NFL careers. Gordon, of course, is only entering his second season, but his rookie campaign in 2015 was nothing to write home about. Between receptions and rush attempts, he touched the ball 217 times and scored a grand total of ZERO touchdowns.

In his defense (at least partially), the Chargers don’t exactly dedicate themselves to the running game. Each of the last two years, they ranked in the bottom third in rush attempts. And with a defense that also ranked in the bottom third last year, the team may be forced to once again shun the running game in 2016 in favor of the passing game just to keep pace with the opposition. But perhaps the biggest red flag for me regarding Gordon, besides his collegiate pedigree and the team’s lack of dedication to the run, is his knee injury from last year. Returning from microfracture surgery is never an easy thing, and it won’t be for Gordon. His seventh round ADP in 12-team PPR leagues (RB No.30) makes him an RB3. I’d rather use that pick on my starting quarterback. Stir clear of Gordon.

Demaryius Thomas, WR DEN – There were times last year when it appeared Thomas was playing with boxing gloves on. He dropped a countless number of on-the-money passes while on his way to being near the top of the league in that category. Granted, once Peyton Manning turned into an old man before our very eyes and Brock Osweiler took over late in the season, Thomas did show a few sparks of productivity. But Osweiler is gone, Peyton is gone, and in steps Mark Sanchez.

Thomas appears on this list because of his recurring case of the dropsies, but also because of my lack of confidence in Sanchez. I don’t have much belief in Sanchez’s ability to orchestrate fantasy relevance for a receiver. And if Sanchez falters, the QB prospects in Denver spell even more doom for Thomas’ chances. Thomas has enjoyed a nice four-year run of superior wide receiver play, but I see him taking a huge step back to the pack in 2016. He may flirt with 1,000 yards receiving, but I don’t think he gets near double digits in touchdowns.

Doug Martin, RB TB – Martin is the worst kind of fantasy player: you don’t know what you’re going to get from him from year to year. He exploded onto the scene in 2012, rushing for more than 1,400 yards, 11 scores, with 49 receptions to boot. His rookie season catapulted his ADP in 2013 to a top-3 overall selection, and he rewarded his owners with an injury-plagued dud of a season. The following year was not much better, only to have 2015 bring him back from the fantasy Lost & Found.

So what are owners to do in 2016 with such a hit or miss prospect? His ADP in 12-team PPR leagues is a mid-third round selection (RB No. 12), making him a low RB1/high RB2. That’s a bit too rich for my liking. In today’s era of receiver-reliant offenses, I’d rather supplement my team at that stage of the draft with a wideout—say, Sammy Watkins. A LeSean McCoy would also be a better option as well. But Doug Martin? Nah.

Frank Gore, RB IND – Gore is an old man (33 years old) in football terms, and an ancient one when seen through the lens of a running back. But as 30-something-year-old running backs go, Gore was at least serviceable at times last season. The problem was, it was tough to predict when those times would surface. He’d give you an 83-yard rushing performance with a rushing TD like he did against Denver in Week 9, and then follow it up with a dud in Atlanta the following week (14 rushes, 34 yards, no TDs).

It’s always tough to know when to stay away from aging, yet fairly productive running backs. Their production often falls completely off the table in any given year, and there’s not much worse as a fantasy owner than spending a mid-round selection on a player with doubts about what’s left in the tank. Thankfully, Gore enters 2016 with not much hype or anticipated greatness, but there may be some out there who may look to eke out one last productive season from him. Indy’s offense overall will automatically improve with Andrew Luck’s return, but will that translate into success for Gore? I’m not so sure.

Matt Ryan, QB ATL – Ok, I’ll admit. I’m penning these words with extreme bias toward Ryan. He’s been my starter (regrettably) for the last two years. While 2014 was ok, 2015 was an unmitigated disaster. He went the entire season without throwing multiple TDs in back-to-back games. Think about that. Just when you think he’s gotten back on track, he follows up productive game with a clunker. His decision-making was abysmal at times, especially in the red zone. Only Eli Manning (5) had more red zone interceptions than Matt Ryan (4).

What makes Ryan’s struggles last year such a strange phenomenon is he had Julio Jones to throw to. They fed Jones the ball early and often, as he ended the season as the most-targeted player in the NFL. But here’s the thing with many of those targets—some were so off target, it defied description. Jones oftentimes had to make circus catches to save Ryan. Ryan has eclipsed 4,000 yards passing in each of the past five years, so reaching that milestone should be no surprise. But the supplemental production we look for in fantasy football (more TDs; less interceptions; an occasional rushing TD) seems to be a difficult thing for Ryan to maintain.

Stay healthy Ryan: Yes, Mathews can deliver low-end RB1 value in Doug Pederson's offense.

Shine

Marvin Jones, WR DET – Jones comes to Detroit after a so-so four years in Cincinnati. Jones steps into the No.2 WR position in Motown, a position that he appears to fit perfectly. He had his breakout season in 2013 when he ripped off 10 scores on only 51 receptions. He missed all of 2014 with a broken ankle. Last season proved to be an inconsistent campaign while playing opposite A.J. Green. He scored only four times, and his play at times appeared shaky.

So how are things going to improve in Detroit, you ask? For starters, I think he will be playing with a superior quarterback in Matthew Stafford. Secondly, the Lions will employ a more up-tempo/no huddle style of offense, which will automatically increase the number of opportunities. Third, the Lions love to throw the ball—ranking fourth last year in attempts and 11th in attempts in 2014. Compare that to Cincy’s 26th ranking in 2015 and 25th ranking in 2014 and you come away realizing that Detroit’s passing game will offer opportunities for Jones that he never had with the Bengals. A 70-catch season with 6 – 8 scores is not a crazy projection.

Derek Carr, QB OAK – Most will argue that Carr’s place on this list is a year too late. His inclusion here is more so an acknowledgement of my belief that he will continue his ascent toward being a top fantasy QB for years to come. Carr passes the eyeball test. Watching him play, you get a sense that he’s in control, that’s he’s in command of what’s going on around him. Those traits translate into productivity. It doesn’t hurt that he has a rising star at WR in Amari Cooper and a vastly underrated Michael Crabtree at his disposal. They were one of the top duos in the league last year, and their presence will only help Carr’s steady climb of the fantasy relevance ladder.

Carr had five games last season when he threw for more than two TDs, and six games when he had more than 300 yards passing. Those numbers speak to his explosive ability and his consistency. The Pittsburgh game from last year really sticks out. More than his 301 yards passing and four TDs, it was his poise under pressure—epitomized by the perfect 38-yard score to Crabtree streaking down the seam. They lost the game with a late field goal, but it was that singular play that sealed it for me. Carr is the real deal and will continue as such for at least the next half-dozen years.

David Johnson, RB ARZ – I’ll admit—heading into this fantasy draft season, I was confused why so many people were high on David Johnson. Here was a guy that didn’t get his first start of 2015 until December; a guy that essentially had just one explosive game—the Philadelphia contest in week 14 when he ran for 187 yards and three TDs. I thought: How can anyone be so high on a guy with such a limited resume?

After doing a little bit of digging, I came away realizing that head coach Bruce Arians absolutely loves this kid’s ability. Yeah, perhaps it’s part coach-speak and part gamesmanship, but most of what Arians said is rooted in fact: that Johnson is a bruiser and is big enough to take the NFL pounding; that Johnson, who played receiver in college, is as bona-fide a three-down back as we have in the league and has some of the best hands in the NFL, regardless of position; that Johnson has improved his pass blocking. Put all those together and you have the makings of a running back who can do major damage this year. Arians is known for his offensive ingenuity, so we should expect Johnson to be used in a variety of ways—both in the running game and the passing game. So yeah, I’m a little late to the David Johnson bandwagon party. But I’m here now. He should be an absolute monster this year, especially in PPR leagues.

Ryan Mathews, RB PHI – We shouldn’t expect Mathews to have a 1,800 yard, 15-touchdown season. But what we should expect is an improved Ryan Mathews over the one we saw in Philly last season. Gone is mercurial head coach Chip Kelly and his quirky offense; so too is RB DeMarco Murray. Murray’s departure, of course, gives Mathews more opportunities, which I think he will take advantage of—Darren Sproles’ role in the offense notwithstanding.

New head coach Doug Pederson comes over from Kansas City, where he served as offensive coordinator for the past three seasons. Perhaps the best way to project Mathews’ production is to look at the 2014 Kansas City offense. RBs Jamaal Charles and Knile Davis had a 2-to-1 rushing ratio, with Charles getting the biggest chunk. I suspect a similar distribution this year with Mathews and Sproles, with Mathews being the two-down back and Sproles in his traditional third down role. If this strategy does, in fact, play out this way, Mathews will have a solid chance of eclipsing his career-best season of 2013 while with the Chargers (1,255 rushing yards/6 TDs).

Andrew Luck, QB IND – Between injuries and a porous offensive line, Andrew Luck endured a challenging season in 2015. Those struggles have brought his ADP from the end of the 1st round in 2015 to the top of the 4th in 2016. Last year was horrible for Luck. In just seven games, he threw 12 interceptions. And those turnovers came in bunches; he threw multiple picks in all but two of those seven games.

The Colts attempted to address the offensive line’s shortcomings, having used four of their eight picks on offensive linemen in this year’s draft. The team’s young receivers (Phillip Dorsett and Donte Moncrief) should complement T.Y. Hilton to give Luck the kind of versatile and explosive receiving group he will need to ramp up his play. But beyond the receivers and the o-line, Luck’s resurgence will also rely on a steady running game, something the team has been lacking for almost a decade. The Colts have not had a 1,000 rusher since Joseph Addai in 2007. If Frank Gore can break that streak (and at 33 years old, that’s asking a lot), it would make Luck’s job a bit easier. But even with an anemic running attack, I believe Luck’s return to being a top-5 fantasy QB remains a strong probability.