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Jason Mitchell | Archive | Email |
Staff Writer


Risers and Fallers: Week 6
Fantasy Football Stock Watch
10/21/15

Brian Hoyer

Brian Hoyer is a perfect bye week fill-in if you're an Aaron Rodgers or Andy Dalton owner.


Quarterback

Rising

Brian Hoyer, HOU
One of the most under the radar fantasy runs of the season has to be Hoyer’s last three weeks. He has been the QB16, QB8 and QB7 in those weeks. But why were they so under the radar? Probably because he wasn’t even the starter in the first two games. Nonetheless, seven touchdowns and one interception has put the new official starter for the Texans on the fantasy map. With DeAndre Hopkins and Arian Foster at his disposal and a bad defense forcing Houston to throw at a 62.6% clip, Hoyer should have no problem remaining in the picture for fantasy owners in 2QB and superflex leagues.

Colin Kaepernick, SF
Kaepernick started 2015 right where he left off in 2014: making his fantasy owners disappointed. In two games since that start, however, he’s quietly put together some nice games. Against the Giants and Ravens, Kaepernick threw for a combined 603 yards, four touchdowns and zero interceptions, giving him two straight weeks of at least 20 fantasy points. The best part for his future prospects (in my opinion): his lack of rushing in those solid fantasy weeks. He’s only run for 33 total yards in those two games. If he can keep up his improved passing and get the rushing back into his repertoire, Kaepernick could finally become the weekly fantasy starter people were looking for way back in the summer of 2014.

Falling

Peyton Manning, DEN
He was mentioned here last week, and he deserves to be put here again. Not only has Manning reached the point of being droppable, he’s not even a must start in leagues in which you can start more two quarterbacks. In the last three weeks, he has finished as the QB26, QB27 and QB22. Over those games, he has thrown a grand total of two touchdowns, while handing out seven interceptions. If you are only allowed to start one quarterback, there’s definitely someone else out there for you. Drop Manning, or find someone to trade with who is still willing to buy into his Hall of Fame name.

Matt Ryan, ATL
Lost in the Falcons excellent 5-1 start to 2015: they are doing it without huge statistical outings from Ryan. In half of Atlanta’s games, Ryan has thrown one or zero touchdowns (exactly two in each of the other three). Over the past three weeks, Ryan is averaging the 25th most FPts/G at the quarterback position. He hasn’t finished in the top 12 since Week 3, and his best finish for the season is QB9, way back in Week 1. I’m sure some of this can be attributed to the dominance of Devonta Freeman, and with no sign of Freeman going away, there’s no reason for the Falcons to try adjusting their attack moving forward. He is still a fine fantasy starter, but if you can get someone to trade for him on the perception that he’s an elite fantasy player, pull the trigger.

Running Back

Rising

Chris Ivory, NYJ
Ivory is an example of how awesome it can be to own a true workhorse in fantasy football. In three of his four games he has received twenty or more carries, scoring a touchdown in all three of those games. In his last two games, he has rushed for 166 and 146 yards. In his most recent game, he got his most action through the air (three catches for 50 yards). In general, Ivory hasn’t been a major part of the passing game, but he doesn’t need to be with all those carries. If he does start getting a few looks in through the air per game, a great fantasy play gets even better. Start him with confidence weekly.

Lamar Miller, MIA
For four weeks, Miller looked like the Dolphins best player, but Miami wouldn’t give him the ball. He maxed out at 13 rushes in those four games, with no more than 10 in the last three. The old coach gets fired, a new coach comes in and boom: Miller shows why everyone made him an early third round pick as with 19 carries for 113 yards. Owners should be thrilled with how much Miami went to him in Week 6, and as long as they keep it up, he’ll be a low-end RB1 the rest of the season.

LeGarrette Blount, NE
During the preseason, Blount was treated like the Patriots running back to own, despite his one game suspension to start the year. Dion Lewis derailed that train, but Blount hasn’t been forgotten by New England. He didn’t do much in his first game back (Week 2), but he’s picked it up since. In the Patriots last three games, Blount has received 18, 13 and 16 carries, gaining at least 74 rushing yards in each. When New England is looking to put away a game with a lead, Blount is the one who gets the carries. The Patriots have a lot of late leads, so the late carries are somewhat dependable. I still think Lewis is the better Patriots running back to own, but the offense can certainly support two fantasy running backs.

Falling

C.J. Anderson, DEN
It would take a lot to trust Anderson again this season. It’s painful to say considering he was typically a first round pick in drafts, but Anderson time is over in Denver. He has zero games with more than 43 rushing yards, and four games with under 30 yards. More notably, Ronnie Hillman has finally appeared to pass him completely, getting 20 carries in Week 6 to Anderson’s 13. The backfield has been trending in this direction for weeks anyway, and now that it has been fulfilled, Anderson can be dropped if you need space on your roster.

Eddie Lacy, GB
Everyone remembers Lacy’s bounce back last season after a dreadful start, but this year feels different. In Week 6, the Packers had a matchup with the Chargers that should have been Lacy’s opportunity to break out, but instead he ran for three yards on just four carries. While this was going on, James Starks went bananas, rushing for 112 yards on 10 carries. I don’t think Lacy is approaching Anderson-levels of disaster yet this year, but it might be time to allow Lacy to spend some time on your bench until he shows he’s ready to live up to his status as one of the league’s elite fantasy running backs.

Charcandrick West and Knile Davis, KC
Last week, Jamaal Charles was lost for the season, a devastating blow to fantasy (and real) football. As a result, West became the hottest pickup of the season, with Davis drawing plenty of interest as well. The first week of the “West-Knile Virus” didn’t go so well: West had nine carries for 33 yards; Davis had five carries for 13 yards. The two also combined for three targets in the passing game, telling me the six targets per game going to Charles won’t necessarily get passed on to the backs taking over for him. Through one week it looks like West is the preferred running back to own in Kansas City, but he’s no Charles, and Davis isn’t going away. It’ll probably be tough to fully trust any back on the Chiefs this year.

Wide Receiver

Rising

John Brown, ARI
As the season approached, Brown became the preferred Arizona wide receiver to draft (especially after Michael Floyd’s injury). In the latest available fantasyfootballcalculator.com ADP, Brown was going a full round before Larry Fitzgerald in standard leagues. Fitzgerald is the one that set the league on fire to kick off the year, but Brown has gained more yards (and fantasy points) each of the past two weeks. In fact, he’s gained at least 73 yards in each of the last three weeks. Coming into the year, Brown had a perception as a “big play” receiver (in other words: good but risky), but he’s caught at least seven passes in two of the last three games. In the long run, I have a greater belief in Fitzgerald, but the Cardinals offense led by Carson Palmer is definitely good enough to support two strong fantasy options at wide receiver.

Lance Moore, DET
Owners in deeper leagues may want to give a look to Moore. He is tough to trust with Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate hogging targets, but he has managed to find seven targets per game over the last two. Moore has 11 receptions over those two weeks, with 55 and 106 yards in those games, plus a touchdown in each. His long term value is tough to gauge with two wide receivers in front of him and Eric Ebron’s return on the horizon, but Moore is a pretty good dart throw if you are truly struggling to fill your lineup in any given week.

Stefon Diggs, MIN
Out of nowhere, Diggs has become one of the most popular pickups in fantasy this week. He had nothing over the first three weeks, but has seen 19 targets in the last two games. In those games, he has reeled in 13 catches, putting up at least 87 yards in each. I don’t know if he’ll be able to maintain this pace in the Peterson-centered Vikings offense with Mike Wallace around and Charles Johnson returning soon from injury, but he’s worth a pickup just in case he does keep it going.

Falling

Randall Cobb, GB
One or two bad games by a stud player is generally nothing to worry about, but we’re on three straight letdowns by Cobb. Five catches for 44 yards, three catches for 23 yards and two catches for 38 yards make up those last three games. Apparently, he’s still hindered by a pre-season shoulder injury. If that’s the case, hopefully he recovers soon, because he could easily be a top five fantasy receiver without Jordy Nelson around. Until that time, Cobb will be closer to a WR2 than a member of the elite class.

Leonard Hankerson, ATL
It was a fun run for a while, but Hankerson has fallen back into the range of interchangeable bench wide receivers. Over the past two weeks, Hankerson has caught five passes for a grand total of 50 yards. He was hurt in Week 5, but his healthy return in Week 6 didn’t improve matters. The current Falcons offense revolves around Devonta Freeman and Julio Jones, with all the complementary backs, receivers and tight ends not doing nearly enough to warrant fantasy attention. Hankerson will likely have a few more nice games this season, but they will be impossible to predict.

Jarvis Landry, MIA
One player that didn’t immediately benefit from the coaching change in Miami was Landry. His fantasy day in Week 6 was saved by a rushing touchdown, but those are generally not a dependable source of points from wide receivers. After beginning the year with three straight games with eight receptions in each, Landry has only caught seven total passes in the last two, with 42 or less yards or less in each. The Dolphins have Kenny Stills, Rishard Matthews and DeVante Parker around, so it’s possible Landry doesn’t return to his PPR dominance of the first few weeks, though I wouldn’t give up on that return quite yet.

Tight End

Rising

Julius Thomas, JAC
He needed a game to shake off the rust, but once getting into the flow, Thomas was able to show why the Jaguars went out of their way to make him their man in free agency. Thomas was targeted 13 times in Week 6, catching seven passes for 78 yards and a touchdown. As long as the targets keep flowing, Thomas can be considered a weekly starter at the generally light scoring position of tight end. Don’t set him and forget him in Week 7 quite yet though, make the rib contusion he suffered in Week 6 doesn’t hold him out of Jacksonville’s lineup.

Charles Clay, BUF
This week’s London battle will feature two risers at tight end. Twice in the last three weeks, Clay has caught exactly nine passes. Three times in the last four weeks, Clay has gained at least 62 yards. Overall, Clay has seen the second most targets of all tight ends in the NFL, behind only Martellus Bennett. Given how lacking the tight end position can be from week to week, guys who get the type of attention Clay gets in Buffalo are a beautiful thing in fantasy.

Falling

Larry Donnell, NYG
Here’s a little tidbit about Donnell: Did you realize he has not achieved 40 yards receiving in a single game this season? He also only has two touchdowns in six games. There is little to no appeal to owning a touchdown dependent tight end who doesn’t score all that often in fantasy, yet he remains owned in over 50 percent of both ESPN and Yahoo leagues. He had a fun stretch in 2014, but this is 2015. If you’re one of those 50-plus percent, it’s time to move on.

Rob Gronkowski, NE
This one’s for you daily players. For season long players, Gronkowski hasn’t quite been “Gronk,” but he’s still the number one tight end through six weeks. For daily players, maybe the high price tag he gets from week to week isn’t worth the return. Gronkowski has four or fewer receptions in three straight games, and his yards have gone down each of the last four games (113, 101, 67, and 50). If you’re paying up for a player in daily, you want guaranteed greatness, and he hasn’t been a guarantee. I’m not against using him, there is always a chance he goes full Gronk at any given time, just don’t feel like you’re stuck having to build every lineup around him as long as he’s priced so much higher than the rest of his position.