All Out Blitz: Volume 41
11/24/11
Aggressiveness is a characteristic that tends to reward fantasy
owners more times than not. In the NFL, an offensive line will sometimes
hold up long enough to give the quarterback enough time to beat
man coverage down the field and make the defense look foolish against
a fierce pass rush. More often than not, though, when a defense
brings the heat and forces the action, crisis management becomes
the name of the game for the opposing team.
In that same vein, I hope to apply that same kind of pressure
to the owners in all of my leagues by beating my opponents to
the punch in regards to personnel moves. Sometimes, reaching a
conclusion about a player too quickly results in making a bad
situation worse. However, coming to a correct conclusion two weeks
or two minutes quicker than your opponents is considered foresight
and can often lead to fantasy championships.
Fantasy owners can be a uneasy lot, knowing that one two-or-three-game
losing streak can wreak irreparable damage to his/her team’s
chances to make a visit to the fantasy postseason. But just as
it is in the NFL and in life, it’s hard to land the big
prize by playing scared. Thus, I will strive each week to help
each of you become a smart blitzer, so to speak.
Some years ago, Marshawn Lynch introduced us all to “Beast
Mode”. It seemed like an appropriate moniker, all things
considered. Then, “Beast Mode” seemed to go away just
as quickly as it came along, primarily due to the fortunes of
the teams Lynch played for over the past few years. Some time
after Lynch gave himself the nickname, I would randomly hear the
terms “beast” or “beasting” used as adverbs,
but only in rare situations.
This year, “Beast Mode” is back and the use of different
forms of the word “beast” has skyrocketed. Maybe it
is all a coincidence, but then again, maybe Lynch has more pull
with the English language than anyone wants to give him credit
for.
But more to the point of this week’s theme, apparently,
what is old (“Beast Mode”) can be new again –
at least this season. Clear-cut RB3s entering the season are carrying
some fantasy teams to their postseasons while other RBs from yesteryear
(hello, Kevin Smith!) are crashing the party just in time. Lynch’s
former teammate, Fred Jackson – until this past week –
had emerged as the kind of steady force most of us fantasy owners
hope for in our first-round pick, much less our sixth- or seventh-round
pick. Darren Sproles also fits that description and after a longer-than-expected
wait for Darren McFadden’s annual injury, so does Michael
Bush.
But each of the aforementioned players – and a list of
other players like them probably too long to mention – have
given us a reason to doubt them in recent weeks or, in Bush’s
case, have a reason to believe impending doom is coming when McFadden
returns. Thus, in my best attempt to mix Thanksgiving with fantasy
football this week, I present “Feast on the Beasts”
– a list of fantasy players we should be thankful for as
we gather with loved ones (hopefully) and enjoy their company
while we all take in some rather meaningful football games this
Thursday.
Just to be clear, this is simply a list the players I want on
my team going forward, no questions asked – a “beast
list” if you will. (This list is in no particular order.)
1. Aaron Rodgers
2. Tom Brady
3. Drew Brees
4. Cam Newton
5. Matthew Stafford
6. Tony Romo
7. Arian Foster
8. LeSean McCoy
9. Matt Forte
10. Ray Rice
11. Frank Gore
12. DeMarco Murray
13. Steve Smith
14. Calvin Johnson
15. Greg Jennings
16. Wes Welker
17. Jordy Nelson
18. Victor Cruz
19. Mike Wallace
20. Brandon Lloyd
21. Antonio Brown
22. Rob Gronkowski
23. Jimmy Graham
24. Jason Witten
Obviously, there is room for much debate here (and the list will
almost certainly change between now and the end of the season),
but if my roster has 2-3 or more of these players, I’m feeling
pretty good about my chances. For the players such as Vincent
Jackson that probably should have made the list, I just don’t
see that sinking ship known as the S.S. Charger turning things
around and V-Jax doesn’t figure to be any more consistent
now without an offensive line to protect Philip Rivers than he
was when San Diego actually still had some remnants of a starting
front five left to work with.
Of the players on this list, I’d be the most concerned
with Welker and Gore given the fact that the former has posted
three rather ordinary PPR games over his last four while the latter
always seems to be this close to suffering a season-ending
injury…again. On the other hand, I don’t know if I
can ever remember two players playing at the level Rodgers and
Gronkowski are at the moment, with Foster not far behind. Fantasy-wise,
Rodgers is basically operating at the same level Brady was at
in 2007, plus 100 or so rushing yards and minus the five- and
six-TD games. Over the last five weeks, Gronkowski is averaging
24.4 points in PPR – a number that dwarfs Graham’s
rather impressive 16.6 average over that same time period. As
for Foster, the last time we saw a RB score anything close to
Foster 31.6 points/game average over the last five games was probably
the 2009 season when Chris Johnson was “beasting”
to keep LenDale White on the sidelines.
But enough with the obvious players…let’s get to
the touches/targets of some of the players that would love to
join the land of the beasts before the end of this season.
The cutoff at each position below is five touches/targets
per game. To help provide some perspective, the average fantasy
points/touch for the 64 RBs that qualify for my list above is
0.75. For the 68 WRs who qualified, the overall average for fantasy
points/target is 0.57 and among the 23 that made the list at TE,
it is 0.63. Feel free to use that number as a barometer to help
you evaluate who is making the grade and who is not.
Note: For the
players whose names and touches/targets are bolded and italicized,
it reflects the touches/targets each player had with their former
team before they were traded/released by that team.
RB Workloads |
Rk |
Player |
TM |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
Avg |
Total |
FPts |
FPts/Touch |
1 |
Arian
Foster |
HOU |
DNP |
12 |
DNP |
33 |
27 |
21 |
30 |
34 |
24 |
21 |
bye |
25.3 |
202 |
197.5 |
0.98 |
2 |
Matt
Forte |
CHI |
21 |
20 |
16 |
29 |
26 |
23 |
27 |
bye |
27 |
19 |
25 |
23.3 |
233 |
205.3 |
0.88 |
3 |
Maurice
Jones-Drew |
JAC |
24 |
21 |
27 |
12 |
19 |
24 |
32 |
19 |
bye |
28 |
25 |
23.1 |
231 |
155.0 |
0.67 |
4 |
LeSean
McCoy |
PHI |
17 |
22 |
27 |
15 |
15 |
30 |
bye |
32 |
21 |
17 |
26 |
22.2 |
222 |
227.7 |
1.03 |
5 |
Michael
Turner |
ATL |
13 |
22 |
11 |
28 |
16 |
28 |
27 |
bye |
20 |
23 |
22 |
21.0 |
210 |
155.2 |
0.74 |
6 |
Ray
Rice |
BAL |
23 |
18 |
13 |
27 |
bye |
28 |
13 |
25 |
23 |
13 |
25 |
20.8 |
208 |
226.6 |
1.09 |
7 |
Frank
Gore |
SF |
25 |
23 |
17 |
17 |
22 |
17 |
bye |
31 |
20 |
7 |
25 |
20.4 |
204 |
137.2 |
0.67 |
8 |
Adrian
Peterson |
MIN |
18 |
27 |
21 |
24 |
29 |
13 |
24 |
26 |
bye |
14 |
6 |
20.2 |
202 |
188.0 |
0.93 |
9 |
Chris
Johnson |
TEN |
15 |
27 |
17 |
25 |
17 |
bye |
16 |
17 |
18 |
31 |
15 |
19.8 |
198 |
127.4 |
0.64 |
10 |
Steven
Jackson |
STL |
2 |
DNP |
4 |
21 |
bye |
22 |
22 |
29 |
30 |
30 |
18 |
19.8 |
178 |
139.6 |
0.78 |
11 |
Marshawn
Lynch |
SEA |
15 |
7 |
20 |
11 |
16 |
bye |
DNP |
16 |
24 |
37 |
29 |
19.4 |
175 |
125.5 |
0.72 |
12 |
Cedric
Benson |
CIN |
26 |
19 |
17 |
19 |
24 |
17 |
bye |
DNP |
20 |
16 |
15 |
19.2 |
173 |
96.3 |
0.56 |
13 |
Ahmad
Bradshaw |
NYG |
14 |
20 |
20 |
16 |
17 |
28 |
bye |
18 |
DNP |
DNP |
DNP |
19.0 |
133 |
123.0 |
0.92 |
14 |
Darren
McFadden |
OAK |
23 |
27 |
22 |
18 |
18 |
21 |
3 |
bye |
DNP |
DNP |
DNP |
18.9 |
132 |
123.8 |
0.94 |
15 |
Peyton
Hillis |
CLE |
23 |
31 |
DNP |
15 |
bye |
6 |
DNP |
DNP |
DNP |
DNP |
DNP |
18.8 |
75 |
53.7 |
0.72 |
16 |
Jahvid
Best |
DET |
25 |
22 |
17 |
13 |
16 |
18 |
DNP |
DNP |
bye |
DNP |
DNP |
18.5 |
111 |
112.7 |
1.02 |
17 |
Ryan
Mathews |
SD |
15 |
19 |
25 |
21 |
25 |
bye |
17 |
19 |
DNP |
9 |
15 |
18.3 |
165 |
13.1 |
0.08 |
18 |
Beanie
Wells |
ARI |
22 |
14 |
DNP |
27 |
20 |
bye |
12 |
22 |
12 |
23 |
8 |
17.8 |
160 |
110.6 |
0.69 |
19 |
Daniel
Thomas |
MIA |
DNP |
19 |
26 |
DNP |
bye |
16 |
21 |
DNP |
7 |
17 |
15 |
17.3 |
121 |
56.5 |
0.47 |
20 |
Willis
McGahee |
DEN |
9 |
29 |
25 |
17 |
16 |
bye |
18 |
DNP |
20 |
4 |
12 |
16.7 |
150 |
101.7 |
0.68 |
21 |
Shonn
Greene |
NYJ |
11 |
18 |
22 |
10 |
23 |
22 |
20 |
bye |
19 |
15 |
4 |
16.4 |
164 |
95.8 |
0.58 |
21 |
Rashard
Mendenhall |
PIT |
12 |
21 |
21 |
9 |
DNP |
23 |
14 |
16 |
14 |
17 |
bye |
16.3 |
147 |
104.4 |
0.71 |
22 |
LeGarrette
Blount |
TB |
5 |
13 |
25 |
26 |
12 |
DNP |
DNP |
bye |
15 |
11 |
19 |
15.8 |
126 |
93.3 |
0.74 |
23 |
Michael
Bush |
OAK |
9 |
4 |
10 |
12 |
4 |
11 |
19 |
bye |
21 |
33 |
32 |
15.5 |
155 |
134.8 |
0.87 |
24 |
Reggie
Bush |
MIA |
20 |
7 |
12 |
15 |
bye |
12 |
12 |
19 |
16 |
18 |
19 |
15.0 |
150 |
131.9 |
0.88 |
25 |
BenJarvus
Green-Ellis |
NE |
15 |
18 |
9 |
17 |
28 |
15 |
bye |
5 |
13 |
8 |
21 |
14.9 |
149 |
97.3 |
0.65 |
26 |
James
Starks |
GB |
12 |
12 |
14 |
18 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
bye |
14 |
16 |
17 |
14.8 |
148 |
107.1 |
0.72 |
27 |
DeMarco
Murray |
DAL |
3 |
7 |
2 |
5 |
bye |
11 |
25 |
9 |
26 |
26 |
31 |
14.5 |
145 |
121.1 |
0.84 |
28 |
Ben
Tate |
HOU |
24 |
27 |
20 |
2 |
DNP |
9 |
15 |
5 |
12 |
13 |
bye |
14.1 |
127 |
91.6 |
0.72 |
29 |
Felix
Jones |
DAL |
20 |
10 |
17 |
21 |
bye |
10 |
DNP |
DNP |
DNP |
DNP |
6 |
14.0 |
84 |
57.2 |
0.68 |
30 |
Montario
Hardesty |
CLE |
DNP |
3 |
17 |
12 |
bye |
13 |
35 |
2 |
DNP |
DNP |
DNP |
13.7 |
82 |
47.7 |
0.58 |
31 |
Mike
Tolbert |
SD |
21 |
17 |
7 |
11 |
8 |
bye |
11 |
DNP |
23 |
12 |
8 |
13.1 |
118 |
144.9 |
1.23 |
32 |
Kevin
Smith |
DET |
DNP |
DNP |
DNP |
DNP |
DNP |
DNP |
DNP |
DNP |
bye |
6 |
20 |
13.0 |
26 |
47.0 |
1.81 |
33 |
Brandon
Jacobs |
NYG |
6 |
17 |
9 |
10 |
DNP |
DNP |
bye |
5 |
22 |
20 |
15 |
13.0 |
104 |
76.9 |
0.74 |
34 |
Mark
Ingram |
NO |
13 |
14 |
11 |
19 |
11 |
10 |
15 |
DNP |
DNP |
9 |
bye |
12.8 |
102 |
62.2 |
0.61 |
35 |
Chris
Ogbonnaya |
CLE |
DNP |
DNP |
DNP |
1 |
2 |
bye |
8 |
16 |
14 |
21 |
23 |
12.1 |
85 |
59.9 |
0.70 |
36 |
Jonathan
Stewart |
CAR |
9 |
14 |
13 |
12 |
7 |
10 |
14 |
15 |
bye |
8 |
14 |
11.6 |
116 |
115.1 |
0.99 |
37 |
Joseph
Addai |
IND |
10 |
18 |
18 |
12 |
7 |
DNP |
4 |
DNP |
DNP |
DNP |
bye |
11.5 |
69 |
50.3 |
0.73 |
38 |
Darren
Sproles |
NO |
9 |
12 |
8 |
12 |
16 |
9 |
18 |
12 |
9 |
6 |
bye |
11.1 |
111 |
169.6 |
1.53 |
39 |
Chris
Ivory |
NO |
DNP |
DNP |
DNP |
DNP |
DNP |
DNP |
DNP |
6 |
15 |
DNP |
bye |
10.5 |
21 |
8.5 |
0.40 |
40 |
DeAngelo
Williams |
CAR |
13 |
9 |
12 |
10 |
9 |
13 |
10 |
9 |
bye |
8 |
11 |
10.4 |
104 |
73.4 |
0.71 |
41 |
Pierre
Thomas |
NO |
9 |
11 |
8 |
10 |
10 |
8 |
15 |
11 |
12 |
10 |
bye |
10.4 |
104 |
107.1 |
1.03 |
42 |
Dexter
McCluster |
KC |
9 |
12 |
14 |
10 |
5 |
bye |
10 |
9 |
8 |
14 |
10 |
10.1 |
101 |
73.2 |
0.72 |
43 |
Jackie
Battle |
KC |
0 |
0 |
0 |
5 |
21 |
bye |
16 |
19 |
15 |
9 |
9 |
9.4 |
94 |
59.1 |
0.63 |
44 |
Cadillac
Williams |
STL |
24 |
16 |
19 |
DNP |
bye |
6 |
3 |
2 |
3 |
0 |
DNP |
9.1 |
73 |
43.4 |
0.59 |
45 |
Ryan
Grant |
GB |
10 |
9 |
17 |
DNP |
8 |
11 |
9 |
bye |
4 |
9 |
4 |
9.0 |
81 |
39.6 |
0.49 |
46 |
Delone
Carter |
IND |
7 |
11 |
4 |
7 |
14 |
14 |
10 |
11 |
4 |
6 |
bye |
8.8 |
88 |
46.0 |
0.52 |
47 |
Ryan
Torain |
WAS |
DNP |
DNP |
DNP |
19 |
bye |
10 |
2 |
9 |
2 |
12 |
6 |
8.6 |
60 |
31.1 |
0.52 |
48 |
Roy
Helu |
WAS |
1 |
13 |
7 |
8 |
bye |
4 |
3 |
3 |
24 |
9 |
10 |
8.2 |
82 |
75.1 |
0.92 |
49 |
Bernard
Scott |
CIN |
4 |
2 |
2 |
6 |
8 |
12 |
bye |
25 |
6 |
7 |
9 |
8.1 |
81 |
41.6 |
0.51 |
50 |
Thomas
Jones |
KC |
2 |
12 |
15 |
11 |
12 |
bye |
9 |
5 |
3 |
4 |
8 |
8.1 |
81 |
29.1 |
0.36 |
51 |
Kevin
Faulk |
NE |
DNP |
DNP |
DNP |
DNP |
DNP |
DNP |
bye |
11 |
DNP |
5 |
DNP |
8.0 |
16 |
11.0 |
0.69 |
52 |
LaDainian
Tomlinson |
NYJ |
11 |
7 |
11 |
4 |
3 |
10 |
8 |
bye |
8 |
9 |
DNP |
7.9 |
71 |
84.9 |
1.20 |
53 |
Marion
Barber |
CHI |
DNP |
DNP |
DNP |
5 |
2 |
12 |
6 |
bye |
10 |
13 |
6 |
7.7 |
54 |
52.0 |
0.96 |
54 |
Isaac
Redman |
PIT |
3 |
11 |
3 |
7 |
18 |
5 |
8 |
8 |
4 |
8 |
bye |
7.5 |
75 |
47.2 |
0.63 |
55 |
Javon
Ringer |
TEN |
DNP |
7 |
8 |
4 |
9 |
bye |
4 |
19 |
5 |
7 |
3 |
7.3 |
66 |
60.0 |
0.91 |
56 |
Deji
Karim |
JAC |
17 |
7 |
7 |
4 |
5 |
5 |
7 |
3 |
bye |
12 |
4 |
7.1 |
71 |
36.6 |
0.52 |
57 |
Kendall
Hunter |
SF |
2 |
0 |
11 |
11 |
9 |
8 |
bye |
3 |
8 |
7 |
12 |
7.1 |
71 |
55.7 |
0.78 |
58 |
Donald
Brown |
IND |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
8 |
7 |
9 |
11 |
17 |
18 |
bye |
7.0 |
70 |
50.6 |
0.72 |
59 |
Danny
Woodhead |
NE |
15 |
6 |
9 |
2 |
DNP |
6 |
bye |
0 |
10 |
8 |
7 |
7.0 |
63 |
48.4 |
0.77 |
60 |
Ricky
Williams |
BAL |
13 |
4 |
6 |
12 |
bye |
2 |
3 |
6 |
10 |
6 |
6 |
6.8 |
68 |
40.6 |
0.60 |
61 |
Lance
Ball |
DEN |
1 |
6 |
4 |
3 |
0 |
bye |
6 |
7 |
4 |
30 |
7 |
6.8 |
68 |
42.1 |
0.62 |
62 |
Maurice
Morris |
DET |
4 |
0 |
3 |
0 |
1 |
6 |
11 |
14 |
bye |
11 |
8 |
5.8 |
58 |
45.0 |
0.78 |
63 |
Derrick
Ward |
HOU |
11 |
DNP |
DNP |
DNP |
DNP |
0 |
5 |
0 |
6 |
11 |
bye |
5.5 |
33 |
22.4 |
0.68 |
64 |
Stevan
Ridley |
NE |
DNP |
2 |
8 |
11 |
7 |
3 |
bye |
DNP |
4 |
5 |
0 |
5.0 |
40 |
29.9 |
0.75 |
|
I’m going to take a slightly different approach this week
to the RB section, spending more of my time talking about some
back-end RB options. I do want to touch on the recent workloads
of a couple fantasy RB studs, however, before I go there…
Since the bye weeks started in Week 5, does it really come as
much of a surprise that Foster and Steven Jackson are amassing
the most touches per week? I’ve already discussed Foster
above and there’s really nothing to add to it when a player
is averaging over 30 fantasy points/game over his last five contests.
As for Jackson, just about everyone – myself included –
figured that OC Josh McDaniels would begin to lighten the load
on Jackson by using him more often as a receiver. Well, that has
been half-true so far, as he is averaging fewer rushing attempts
this year than any year since 2005. But Jackson’s YPC is
the highest it has been since his rookie season, which makes him
something of a mystery to project going forward.
The latest edition to the second-half waiver-wire
wonder club.
I would be remiss if I gave anyone besides Kevin
Smith top billing this week. When I recommended him as a “waiver-wire
star” last week, it was with the hope that he would move into
the starting lineup at some point before the start of the fantasy
playoffs, not the second quarter of his second game back in the
NFL. After watching the Carolina-Detroit replay on NFL Network,
Smith still has the same tools he did when he left the game –
power and vision. I didn’t see a great deal of burst, but understand
that he is basically using the middle of the NFL season as his
preseason. While he lacks Jahvid
Best’s track speed (who doesn’t?) and has an injury history
more lengthy than the man he is replacing, Smith does have the
advantage of fresh legs and already has the trust of Matthew Stafford
and his coaches in the passing game (blitz pickup, good hands,
etc.) to be the latest addition to the second-half waiver-wire
wonder club, joining the likes of Jerome
Harrison and Jamaal
Charles and countless others from years past.
Opinions in the fantasy community seem to be all over regarding
his status for the rest of the season, but I’m of the opinion
that Detroit should take the same approach with Best and Smith
that Oakland is with Darren McFadden and Michael Bush –
give the regular starter all the time he needs plus another week
just to be safe. Regardless of if/when Best does return, Smith
gives this offense a bit of the element it was hoping to get from
Mikel Leshoure. And with a plethora of weapons in the passing
game, Smith shouldn’t see the number of stacked boxes he
was curiously facing against the Panthers. Smith should be good
for 15 touches going forward and, in this offense, that number
should be good enough for 15-20 fantasy points in PPR on a regular
basis.
Owners were quick to write off Chris Ogbonnaya’s 109-yard
performance against the Rams in Week 10 as a fluke. (After all,
every RB does that against the Rams, right? Even the bad ones…)
However, when he did himself one better and put up 134 total yards
against the Jags, people started paying a bit more attention.
You see, as much as we want certain players to step up immediately
for us after they are handed the starting job, it doesn’t
always work like that. Generally speaking, Ogbonnaya is an average
NFL talent with good hands. (And I say that as one of his earliest
supporters.) If you haven’t boarded his train by now, it
probably isn’t worth doing so anymore with his next three
games coming against all three AFC North teams and Montario Hardesty
due back this week. But we do know that Ogbonnaya is capable of
producing in difficult matchups now, which is something most fantasy
owners and experts would have said wasn’t possible two weeks
ago. Even if Hardesty returns as expected this week, Ogbonnaya
could still be a decent low-end flex option in PPR going forward.
In the battle of the movable object and the resistible force,
the Colts face the Panthers this week. Now, just because I fashion
myself as a “matchup owner”, it doesn’t mean
I am one who likes to start a player just because his matchup
says I should. What do I mean? As the Panthers have shown for
most of the season, their banged-up defense doesn’t have
a prayer against opposing RBs (good news for the fantasy owners
of Michael Turner, Arian Foster, Ben Tate and LeGarrette Blount
during the fantasy playoffs). But does that automatically mean
that Joseph Addai – due back this week – or Donald
Brown will become the latest RB to burn Carolina? I’d be
willing to give either player a shot in my flex spot, but I’d
still be more than happy to avoid either Colts RB if I had better
players on my roster.
Words cannot express the disappointment I feel for Denarius Moore
owners, but at least we didn’t have to wait long for a reason
why he couldn’t beat up the injured Vikings’ secondary
– a “twisted” ankle. He returned to the game
after suffering the injury, but was spotted in a walking boot
on Wednesday. There’s little doubt the rookie is Carson
Palmer’s top option in the passing game, but a less-than-100%
Moore against Chicago doesn’t inspire a great deal of confidence.
Since the Raiders could easily be without their top three receivers
(Moore, Jacoby Ford, Darrius Heyward-Bey) against the Bears, it
is highly recommended that owners sit all members of the Oakland
passing game as the team will probably give Michael Bush another
30 carries if possible.
Assuming Roddy White and Julio Jones can actually remain on the
field together for more than a couple of weeks, I will buy the
idea of this duo finishing as one of the top receiving tandems
over the last quarter of this season. Matt Ryan should have a
fine day vs. Minnesota’s CBs this week as the Vikings will
likely limit the damage Michael Turner can do. The same scenario
could play out vs. Houston in Week 13 although White could have
a slow day vs. Johnathan Joseph. However, the Texans should have
no answer for Jones. Turner could have a field day in Week 14,
but the fantasy season closes out with the Jags and Saints –
defenses that have done a respectable job at limiting the damage
of most opposing fantasy RBs, but both opponents have secondaries
that can be exploited and Jones has proven to be electric when
he plays. After White’s vintage performance last week, he
might finally be ready to put up the numbers we expected from
him at draft time.
If Brandon Lloyd re-signs with the Rams this offseason, I can
almost guarantee you that he will be a top 15 WR, if not top 10-12,
on my Big Boards next season. Certainly, the possibility St. Louis
adds a first- or second-round receiver in the draft are fairly
high, but it’s hard to ignore the league-leading 61 times
he has been targeted since his trade from Denver (12 more than
second-place Larry Fitzgerald). It’s obvious he is benefitting
as much from the lack of a reasonable second option in the passing
game as much as he is from his skill set, but if McDaniels keeps
his job for another year, Lloyd’s production isn’t
going to spiral anytime soon.
There is perhaps no player with a greater difference between his
floor and ceiling this week than Jerome Simpson. One look at his
target line this season is probably enough to tell you that you
start him at your own risk, but this week, that is even more the
case than usual. Here’s the long and short of my thinking
for him this week: if A.J. Green plays, start Simpson. If he doesn’t,
stay as far away as possible. Browns CB Joe Haden will likely
take Green again (like he did in the opener) if the rookie plays
and will draw Simpson if Green sits. Please understand that I
don’t usually often recommend starting a WR against fantasy’s
best defense vs. WRs, but take a quick look at the number of mediocre
passing attacks Cleveland has faced to this point. Cedric Benson
isn’t likely to carry this offense – even in a decent
matchup against the Browns, so Simpson is worth a long look if
Green will play. If Green cannot play, I would put all of my Bengal
chips on Andre Caldwell. (Yes, if Sheldon Brown is reading this
article, this is exactly how much faith I have in your ability
to cover receivers.)
TE Targets |
Rk |
Player |
Tm |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
Avg |
Total |
Rec |
Catch % |
1 |
Jimmy Graham |
NO |
7 |
7 |
8 |
14 |
12 |
11 |
7 |
8 |
8 |
12 |
bye |
9.4 |
94 |
62 |
0.66 |
2 |
Jason Witten |
DAL |
9 |
14 |
9 |
10 |
bye |
4 |
6 |
12 |
7 |
7 |
3 |
8.1 |
81 |
52 |
0.64 |
3 |
Kellen Winslow |
TB |
8 |
8 |
5 |
6 |
9 |
10 |
12 |
bye |
6 |
6 |
11 |
8.1 |
81 |
47 |
0.58 |
4 |
Rob Gronkowski |
NE |
7 |
6 |
9 |
5 |
4 |
7 |
bye |
9 |
15 |
11 |
7 |
8.0 |
80 |
56 |
0.70 |
5 |
Aaron Hernandez |
NE |
10 |
8 |
DNP |
DNP |
9 |
14 |
bye |
4 |
5 |
5 |
7 |
7.8 |
62 |
41 |
0.66 |
6 |
Tony Gonzalez |
ATL |
7 |
9 |
8 |
9 |
8 |
3 |
8 |
bye |
6 |
10 |
6 |
7.4 |
74 |
50 |
0.68 |
7 |
Brandon Pettigrew |
DET |
6 |
3 |
13 |
9 |
5 |
14 |
6 |
4 |
bye |
9 |
5 |
7.4 |
74 |
50 |
0.68 |
8 |
Greg Olsen |
CAR |
6 |
4 |
10 |
7 |
5 |
10 |
3 |
7 |
bye |
11 |
9 |
7.2 |
72 |
37 |
0.51 |
9 |
Ed Dickson |
BAL |
5 |
6 |
9 |
12 |
bye |
3 |
5 |
9 |
5 |
14 |
3 |
7.1 |
71 |
42 |
0.59 |
10 |
Fred Davis |
WAS |
6 |
7 |
3 |
6 |
bye |
11 |
8 |
9 |
7 |
7 |
7 |
7.1 |
71 |
49 |
0.69 |
11 |
Antonio Gates |
SD |
13 |
1 |
DNP |
DNP |
DNP |
bye |
7 |
7 |
11 |
6 |
4 |
7.0 |
49 |
34 |
0.69 |
12 |
Jermaine Gresham |
CIN |
8 |
5 |
8 |
7 |
7 |
6 |
bye |
DNP |
DNP |
5 |
6 |
6.8 |
41 |
32 |
0.78 |
13 |
Dustin Keller |
NYJ |
8 |
6 |
9 |
8 |
2 |
5 |
8 |
bye |
7 |
4 |
8 |
6.5 |
65 |
36 |
0.55 |
14 |
Brent Celek |
PHI |
3 |
7 |
2 |
4 |
5 |
9 |
bye |
9 |
9 |
7 |
6 |
6.1 |
61 |
37 |
0.61 |
15 |
Ben Watson |
CLE |
7 |
4 |
10 |
9 |
bye |
8 |
4 |
3 |
2 |
5 |
4 |
5.6 |
56 |
30 |
0.54 |
16 |
Dallas Clark |
IND |
5 |
8 |
6 |
4 |
5 |
7 |
0 |
10 |
5 |
DNP |
bye |
5.6 |
50 |
28 |
0.56 |
17 |
Marcedes Lewis |
JAC |
3 |
DNP |
2 |
7 |
4 |
8 |
3 |
9 |
bye |
3 |
11 |
5.6 |
50 |
23 |
0.46 |
18 |
Owen Daniels |
HOU |
2 |
5 |
9 |
7 |
11 |
3 |
5 |
6 |
4 |
3 |
bye |
5.5 |
55 |
37 |
0.67 |
19 |
Vernon Davis |
SF |
6 |
2 |
9 |
6 |
3 |
2 |
bye |
3 |
7 |
4 |
10 |
5.2 |
52 |
39 |
0.75 |
20 |
Jermichael Finley |
GB |
4 |
6 |
8 |
6 |
7 |
4 |
2 |
bye |
7 |
4 |
3 |
5.1 |
51 |
34 |
0.67 |
21 |
Heath Miller |
PIT |
5 |
3 |
6 |
3 |
4 |
6 |
4 |
9 |
6 |
5 |
bye |
5.1 |
51 |
38 |
0.75 |
22 |
Todd Heap |
ARI |
3 |
1 |
10 |
6 |
DNP |
bye |
DNP |
DNP |
DNP |
DNP |
DNP |
5.0 |
20 |
13 |
0.65 |
23 |
Visanthe Shiancoe |
MIN |
1 |
7 |
2 |
8 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
4 |
bye |
4 |
3 |
5.0 |
50 |
26 |
0.52 |
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With the otherworldly production Rob Gronkowski is giving his
owners, it is hard to even think about another TE. However, in
most leagues, there are 11 other teams that need someone to be
able to minimize the damage he can create in the fantasy box score.
One of those players could be “an old is new again”
alum – Brett Celek. With DeSean Jackson having sworn off
the middle of the field and Jeremy Maclin a definite injury concern
again this week, Celek should be heavily targeted again vs. the
Patriots. New England actually ranks as one of the tougher defenses
vs. opposing TEs, but have been routinely beaten by a number of
comparable TEs such as Heath Miller and Jake Ballard in recent
weeks. Vince Young has never been shy about using his TEs either
and, even if Michael Vick somehow does make it back in time for
this game, Celek’s recent run of productivity started well
before Vick was injured.
With 10 targets last week, Vernon Davis revisits the five-plus
target club. I still believe he will be at his best when the matchups
appear to be the most difficult. As I said a couple of weeks ago,
San Francisco will run and play defense with little regard for
its passing attack so long as its opponents continue to be stymied
by its defense. The Niners’ remaining schedule doesn’t
exactly feature any great offenses, so that should remain the
plan going forward. Therefore, Davis’ owners may not be
able to count on much this week since San Francisco should have
some success running against the Ravens minus Ray Lewis, meaning
Alex Smith will resume his 170-yard, one-score ways. Davis would
appear to be the most obvious mismatch the Niners have in the
passing game, but given that he is also such a fine blocker and
Baltimore will be bringing Terrell Suggs off the edge on a regular
basis, expect San Francisco’s best TE play this week to
be Delanie Walker.
Next Week’s Waiver Wire Stars
Each week, I’ll select one player at QB, RB, WR and TE
that is available in at least three of my five leagues and make
a case as to why they could be important to you the following
week or beyond. For those of you who have been loyal readers for
some time, you already know I am not concerned with making safe
picks; selective and smart aggressiveness is often the name of
the game in fantasy.
I cannot emphasize enough these players are not necessarily recommended
additions to your fantasy team – I will make sure to make
that obvious if that is the case – but have a chance, however
small, to make an impact, even if it is only as a potentially
valuable reserve down the line.
QB: Matt Leinart, Houston. I’d
be hesitant to say this is a no-brainer selection for me, but
Leinart’s timing couldn’t be much better. Cast as
a horribly underachieving, overrated party boy for several years
now, Leinart has the chance to step into a starting spot with
a team that should win its division going away. Even better, Leinart’s
first start with the Texans will almost certainly coincide with
the return of Andre Johnson. Granted, I don’t expect much
more than an Alex Smith-type of role for Leinart going forward,
but it is hard to ignore the matchups Houston has the rest of
the way. The Jags have emerged as one of the best pass defenses
in the league statistically, but have lost a few key pieces that
helped them achieve their lofty ranking. After that, the Texans
meet (in order) the Falcons, Bengals, Panthers and Colts. While
the game plan will likely be to run 35 times a game, HC Gary Kubiak
isn’t going to simply ignore the passing game, especially
with AJ and Owen Daniels both healthy at the same time. It would
not surprise me in the least if Leinart performed like a top 15
fantasy QB from here on out.
Previous recommendations:
Matt Cassel, Week 3; Vince Young, Week 4; Tim Tebow, Week 5; John
Beck, Week 6; Christian Ponder, Week 7; Colt McCoy, Week 9; Alex
Smith, Week 10
RB: Johnny White, Buffalo. Sometimes
in fantasy, it is most beneficial to zig where others zag. Almost
immediately after Fred Jackson was placed on IR Wednesday, my
thoughts did not go to C.J. Spiller – who should obviously
be picked up in any league where he is available – but to
White, a rookie out of North Carolina. White isn’t exactly
a giant – he’s only about 7-10 pounds heavier and
about the same size as Spiller – but with the lack of confidence
Buffalo has with Spiller’s ability to run inside, this could
quickly become a committee situation. Understand that Jackson
had essentially become Buffalo’s offense in recent weeks,
so his loss means there isn’t likely to be a lot of production
from anyone on this offense now. But he has a chance now and after
facing the Jets this week, White could have some exploitable matchups
against Tennessee and San Diego over the next two weeks if he
proves he is ready for his opportunity in the same way Joe McKnight
did last Thursday.
Previous recommendations:
Alfonso Smith, Week 3; Keiland Williams Week 4; Jackie Battle/Jacquizz
Rodgers, Week 5; Joe McKnight, Week 6; Phillip Tanner, Week 7;
Tashard Choice, Week 9; Kevin Smith, Week 10
WR: Demaryius Thomas, Denver. Given
the nature of Tim Tebow’s recent success, it’s hard
to even fathom the idea of using Bronco pass catchers. But here’s
what I do know: the Chargers’ defense has been an absolute
sieve when it comes to stopping the deep ball, which is a stunner
since they have a $40 M safety and enough talent at CB that speed
receivers shouldn’t be hurting them quite this much. It
won’t be surprising if one of the two deep balls the Broncos
attempt on Sunday goes in the direction of Eric Decker, but Thomas
should see one as well. I’m not exactly sure if Denver will
use this matchup to see if it can build Tebow’s confidence
as a passer or if it will execute the same kind of run-heavy gameplan
it used two weeks against the Chiefs. But I have a strong feeling
that Thomas or TE Daniel Fells will find themselves the recipient
of a long TD pass. That description fits the game of Thomas better,
so that will be my choice.
Previous recommendations:
Michael Jenkins/Dane Sanzenbacher, Week 3; Mark Clayton, Week
4, Naaman Roosevelt, Week 5; Arrelious Benn, Week 6; Roy Williams,
Week 7; Joshua Cribbs, Week 9; Andre Roberts, Week 10
TE: Kevin Boss, Oakland. In fantasy,
we often look for unshakable trends; in other words, a matchup
that has produced double-digit fantasy points in every game played
against that defense. While the Bears haven’t been THAT
bad against TEs, they have been close as Visanthe Shiancoe’s
9.5 fantasy-point total in PPR leagues is the lowest number posted
by an opposing starting TE and the only single-digit performance
against the Chicago defense this season. Throw in the fact the
Raiders might be without their top three receivers and Boss coming
off one of his more productive games of the season and you have
some reason to believe he might put up a 12-15-point performance
this week.
Previous recommendations: Ben Watson, Week 3; Jake Ballard,
Week 4; Joel Dreessen, Week 5; Lance Kendricks, Week 6; Visanthe
Shiancoe/Jeremy Shockey, Week 7; Dennis Pitta, Week 9; Daniel
Fells, Week 10
Suggestions, comments, musings about the article
or fantasy football in general? E-mail
me.
Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006, appeared
in USA Today’s Fantasy Football Preview magazine in each
of the last two seasons and served as a weekly fantasy football
analyst for 106.7 The Fan in Washington, D.C. this past season.
He is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.
You can also follow him
on Twitter.
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