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Doug Orth | Archive | Email | Twitter
Staff Writer


Feast on the Beasts
All Out Blitz: Volume 41
11/24/11

Aggressiveness is a characteristic that tends to reward fantasy owners more times than not. In the NFL, an offensive line will sometimes hold up long enough to give the quarterback enough time to beat man coverage down the field and make the defense look foolish against a fierce pass rush. More often than not, though, when a defense brings the heat and forces the action, crisis management becomes the name of the game for the opposing team.

In that same vein, I hope to apply that same kind of pressure to the owners in all of my leagues by beating my opponents to the punch in regards to personnel moves. Sometimes, reaching a conclusion about a player too quickly results in making a bad situation worse. However, coming to a correct conclusion two weeks or two minutes quicker than your opponents is considered foresight and can often lead to fantasy championships.

Fantasy owners can be a uneasy lot, knowing that one two-or-three-game losing streak can wreak irreparable damage to his/her team’s chances to make a visit to the fantasy postseason. But just as it is in the NFL and in life, it’s hard to land the big prize by playing scared. Thus, I will strive each week to help each of you become a smart blitzer, so to speak.


Some years ago, Marshawn Lynch introduced us all to “Beast Mode”. It seemed like an appropriate moniker, all things considered. Then, “Beast Mode” seemed to go away just as quickly as it came along, primarily due to the fortunes of the teams Lynch played for over the past few years. Some time after Lynch gave himself the nickname, I would randomly hear the terms “beast” or “beasting” used as adverbs, but only in rare situations.

This year, “Beast Mode” is back and the use of different forms of the word “beast” has skyrocketed. Maybe it is all a coincidence, but then again, maybe Lynch has more pull with the English language than anyone wants to give him credit for.

But more to the point of this week’s theme, apparently, what is old (“Beast Mode”) can be new again – at least this season. Clear-cut RB3s entering the season are carrying some fantasy teams to their postseasons while other RBs from yesteryear (hello, Kevin Smith!) are crashing the party just in time. Lynch’s former teammate, Fred Jackson – until this past week – had emerged as the kind of steady force most of us fantasy owners hope for in our first-round pick, much less our sixth- or seventh-round pick. Darren Sproles also fits that description and after a longer-than-expected wait for Darren McFadden’s annual injury, so does Michael Bush.

But each of the aforementioned players – and a list of other players like them probably too long to mention – have given us a reason to doubt them in recent weeks or, in Bush’s case, have a reason to believe impending doom is coming when McFadden returns. Thus, in my best attempt to mix Thanksgiving with fantasy football this week, I present “Feast on the Beasts” – a list of fantasy players we should be thankful for as we gather with loved ones (hopefully) and enjoy their company while we all take in some rather meaningful football games this Thursday.

Just to be clear, this is simply a list the players I want on my team going forward, no questions asked – a “beast list” if you will. (This list is in no particular order.)

1. Aaron Rodgers
2. Tom Brady
3. Drew Brees
4. Cam Newton
5. Matthew Stafford
6. Tony Romo
7. Arian Foster
8. LeSean McCoy
9. Matt Forte
10. Ray Rice
11. Frank Gore
12. DeMarco Murray
13. Steve Smith
14. Calvin Johnson
15. Greg Jennings
16. Wes Welker
17. Jordy Nelson
18. Victor Cruz
19. Mike Wallace
20. Brandon Lloyd
21. Antonio Brown
22. Rob Gronkowski
23. Jimmy Graham
24. Jason Witten

Obviously, there is room for much debate here (and the list will almost certainly change between now and the end of the season), but if my roster has 2-3 or more of these players, I’m feeling pretty good about my chances. For the players such as Vincent Jackson that probably should have made the list, I just don’t see that sinking ship known as the S.S. Charger turning things around and V-Jax doesn’t figure to be any more consistent now without an offensive line to protect Philip Rivers than he was when San Diego actually still had some remnants of a starting front five left to work with.

Of the players on this list, I’d be the most concerned with Welker and Gore given the fact that the former has posted three rather ordinary PPR games over his last four while the latter always seems to be this close to suffering a season-ending injury…again. On the other hand, I don’t know if I can ever remember two players playing at the level Rodgers and Gronkowski are at the moment, with Foster not far behind. Fantasy-wise, Rodgers is basically operating at the same level Brady was at in 2007, plus 100 or so rushing yards and minus the five- and six-TD games. Over the last five weeks, Gronkowski is averaging 24.4 points in PPR – a number that dwarfs Graham’s rather impressive 16.6 average over that same time period. As for Foster, the last time we saw a RB score anything close to Foster 31.6 points/game average over the last five games was probably the 2009 season when Chris Johnson was “beasting” to keep LenDale White on the sidelines.

But enough with the obvious players…let’s get to the touches/targets of some of the players that would love to join the land of the beasts before the end of this season.

The cutoff at each position below is five touches/targets per game. To help provide some perspective, the average fantasy points/touch for the 64 RBs that qualify for my list above is 0.75. For the 68 WRs who qualified, the overall average for fantasy points/target is 0.57 and among the 23 that made the list at TE, it is 0.63. Feel free to use that number as a barometer to help you evaluate who is making the grade and who is not.

Note: For the players whose names and touches/targets are bolded and italicized, it reflects the touches/targets each player had with their former team before they were traded/released by that team.

 RB Workloads
Rk Player TM 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Avg Total FPts FPts/Touch
1 Arian Foster HOU DNP 12 DNP 33 27 21 30 34 24 21 bye 25.3 202 197.5 0.98
2 Matt Forte CHI 21 20 16 29 26 23 27 bye 27 19 25 23.3 233 205.3 0.88
3 Maurice Jones-Drew JAC 24 21 27 12 19 24 32 19 bye 28 25 23.1 231 155.0 0.67
4 LeSean McCoy PHI 17 22 27 15 15 30 bye 32 21 17 26 22.2 222 227.7 1.03
5 Michael Turner ATL 13 22 11 28 16 28 27 bye 20 23 22 21.0 210 155.2 0.74
6 Ray Rice BAL 23 18 13 27 bye 28 13 25 23 13 25 20.8 208 226.6 1.09
7 Frank Gore SF 25 23 17 17 22 17 bye 31 20 7 25 20.4 204 137.2 0.67
8 Adrian Peterson MIN 18 27 21 24 29 13 24 26 bye 14 6 20.2 202 188.0 0.93
9 Chris Johnson TEN 15 27 17 25 17 bye 16 17 18 31 15 19.8 198 127.4 0.64
10 Steven Jackson STL 2 DNP 4 21 bye 22 22 29 30 30 18 19.8 178 139.6 0.78
11 Marshawn Lynch SEA 15 7 20 11 16 bye DNP 16 24 37 29 19.4 175 125.5 0.72
12 Cedric Benson CIN 26 19 17 19 24 17 bye DNP 20 16 15 19.2 173 96.3 0.56
13 Ahmad Bradshaw NYG 14 20 20 16 17 28 bye 18 DNP DNP DNP 19.0 133 123.0 0.92
14 Darren McFadden OAK 23 27 22 18 18 21 3 bye DNP DNP DNP 18.9 132 123.8 0.94
15 Peyton Hillis CLE 23 31 DNP 15 bye 6 DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP 18.8 75 53.7 0.72
16 Jahvid Best DET 25 22 17 13 16 18 DNP DNP bye DNP DNP 18.5 111 112.7 1.02
17 Ryan Mathews SD 15 19 25 21 25 bye 17 19 DNP 9 15 18.3 165 13.1 0.08
18 Beanie Wells ARI 22 14 DNP 27 20 bye 12 22 12 23 8 17.8 160 110.6 0.69
19 Daniel Thomas MIA DNP 19 26 DNP bye 16 21 DNP 7 17 15 17.3 121 56.5 0.47
20 Willis McGahee DEN 9 29 25 17 16 bye 18 DNP 20 4 12 16.7 150 101.7 0.68
21 Shonn Greene NYJ 11 18 22 10 23 22 20 bye 19 15 4 16.4 164 95.8 0.58
21 Rashard Mendenhall PIT 12 21 21 9 DNP 23 14 16 14 17 bye 16.3 147 104.4 0.71
22 LeGarrette Blount TB 5 13 25 26 12 DNP DNP bye 15 11 19 15.8 126 93.3 0.74
23 Michael Bush OAK 9 4 10 12 4 11 19 bye 21 33 32 15.5 155 134.8 0.87
24 Reggie Bush MIA 20 7 12 15 bye 12 12 19 16 18 19 15.0 150 131.9 0.88
25 BenJarvus Green-Ellis NE 15 18 9 17 28 15 bye 5 13 8 21 14.9 149 97.3 0.65
26 James Starks GB 12 12 14 18 14 15 16 bye 14 16 17 14.8 148 107.1 0.72
27 DeMarco Murray DAL 3 7 2 5 bye 11 25 9 26 26 31 14.5 145 121.1 0.84
28 Ben Tate HOU 24 27 20 2 DNP 9 15 5 12 13 bye 14.1 127 91.6 0.72
29 Felix Jones DAL 20 10 17 21 bye 10 DNP DNP DNP DNP 6 14.0 84 57.2 0.68
30 Montario Hardesty CLE DNP 3 17 12 bye 13 35 2 DNP DNP DNP 13.7 82 47.7 0.58
31 Mike Tolbert SD 21 17 7 11 8 bye 11 DNP 23 12 8 13.1 118 144.9 1.23
32 Kevin Smith DET DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP bye 6 20 13.0 26 47.0 1.81
33 Brandon Jacobs NYG 6 17 9 10 DNP DNP bye 5 22 20 15 13.0 104 76.9 0.74
34 Mark Ingram NO 13 14 11 19 11 10 15 DNP DNP 9 bye 12.8 102 62.2 0.61
35 Chris Ogbonnaya CLE DNP DNP DNP 1 2 bye 8 16 14 21 23 12.1 85 59.9 0.70
36 Jonathan Stewart CAR 9 14 13 12 7 10 14 15 bye 8 14 11.6 116 115.1 0.99
37 Joseph Addai IND 10 18 18 12 7 DNP 4 DNP DNP DNP bye 11.5 69 50.3 0.73
38 Darren Sproles NO 9 12 8 12 16 9 18 12 9 6 bye 11.1 111 169.6 1.53
39 Chris Ivory NO DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP 6 15 DNP bye 10.5 21 8.5 0.40
40 DeAngelo Williams CAR 13 9 12 10 9 13 10 9 bye 8 11 10.4 104 73.4 0.71
41 Pierre Thomas NO 9 11 8 10 10 8 15 11 12 10 bye 10.4 104 107.1 1.03
42 Dexter McCluster KC 9 12 14 10 5 bye 10 9 8 14 10 10.1 101 73.2 0.72
43 Jackie Battle KC 0 0 0 5 21 bye 16 19 15 9 9 9.4 94 59.1 0.63
44 Cadillac Williams STL 24 16 19 DNP bye 6 3 2 3 0 DNP 9.1 73 43.4 0.59
45 Ryan Grant GB 10 9 17 DNP 8 11 9 bye 4 9 4 9.0 81 39.6 0.49
46 Delone Carter IND 7 11 4 7 14 14 10 11 4 6 bye 8.8 88 46.0 0.52
47 Ryan Torain WAS DNP DNP DNP 19 bye 10 2 9 2 12 6 8.6 60 31.1 0.52
48 Roy Helu WAS 1 13 7 8 bye 4 3 3 24 9 10 8.2 82 75.1 0.92
49 Bernard Scott CIN 4 2 2 6 8 12 bye 25 6 7 9 8.1 81 41.6 0.51
50 Thomas Jones KC 2 12 15 11 12 bye 9 5 3 4 8 8.1 81 29.1 0.36
51 Kevin Faulk NE DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP bye 11 DNP 5 DNP 8.0 16 11.0 0.69
52 LaDainian Tomlinson NYJ 11 7 11 4 3 10 8 bye 8 9 DNP 7.9 71 84.9 1.20
53 Marion Barber CHI DNP DNP DNP 5 2 12 6 bye 10 13 6 7.7 54 52.0 0.96
54 Isaac Redman PIT 3 11 3 7 18 5 8 8 4 8 bye 7.5 75 47.2 0.63
55 Javon Ringer TEN DNP 7 8 4 9 bye 4 19 5 7 3 7.3 66 60.0 0.91
56 Deji Karim JAC 17 7 7 4 5 5 7 3 bye 12 4 7.1 71 36.6 0.52
57 Kendall Hunter SF 2 0 11 11 9 8 bye 3 8 7 12 7.1 71 55.7 0.78
58 Donald Brown IND 0 0 0 0 8 7 9 11 17 18 bye 7.0 70 50.6 0.72
59 Danny Woodhead NE 15 6 9 2 DNP 6 bye 0 10 8 7 7.0 63 48.4 0.77
60 Ricky Williams BAL 13 4 6 12 bye 2 3 6 10 6 6 6.8 68 40.6 0.60
61 Lance Ball DEN 1 6 4 3 0 bye 6 7 4 30 7 6.8 68 42.1 0.62
62 Maurice Morris DET 4 0 3 0 1 6 11 14 bye 11 8 5.8 58 45.0 0.78
63 Derrick Ward HOU 11 DNP DNP DNP DNP 0 5 0 6 11 bye 5.5 33 22.4 0.68
64 Stevan Ridley NE DNP 2 8 11 7 3 bye DNP 4 5 0 5.0 40 29.9 0.75

I’m going to take a slightly different approach this week to the RB section, spending more of my time talking about some back-end RB options. I do want to touch on the recent workloads of a couple fantasy RB studs, however, before I go there…

Since the bye weeks started in Week 5, does it really come as much of a surprise that Foster and Steven Jackson are amassing the most touches per week? I’ve already discussed Foster above and there’s really nothing to add to it when a player is averaging over 30 fantasy points/game over his last five contests. As for Jackson, just about everyone – myself included – figured that OC Josh McDaniels would begin to lighten the load on Jackson by using him more often as a receiver. Well, that has been half-true so far, as he is averaging fewer rushing attempts this year than any year since 2005. But Jackson’s YPC is the highest it has been since his rookie season, which makes him something of a mystery to project going forward.

Kevin Smith

The latest edition to the second-half waiver-wire wonder club.

I would be remiss if I gave anyone besides Kevin Smith top billing this week. When I recommended him as a “waiver-wire star” last week, it was with the hope that he would move into the starting lineup at some point before the start of the fantasy playoffs, not the second quarter of his second game back in the NFL. After watching the Carolina-Detroit replay on NFL Network, Smith still has the same tools he did when he left the game – power and vision. I didn’t see a great deal of burst, but understand that he is basically using the middle of the NFL season as his preseason. While he lacks Jahvid Best’s track speed (who doesn’t?) and has an injury history more lengthy than the man he is replacing, Smith does have the advantage of fresh legs and already has the trust of Matthew Stafford and his coaches in the passing game (blitz pickup, good hands, etc.) to be the latest addition to the second-half waiver-wire wonder club, joining the likes of Jerome Harrison and Jamaal Charles and countless others from years past.

Opinions in the fantasy community seem to be all over regarding his status for the rest of the season, but I’m of the opinion that Detroit should take the same approach with Best and Smith that Oakland is with Darren McFadden and Michael Bush – give the regular starter all the time he needs plus another week just to be safe. Regardless of if/when Best does return, Smith gives this offense a bit of the element it was hoping to get from Mikel Leshoure. And with a plethora of weapons in the passing game, Smith shouldn’t see the number of stacked boxes he was curiously facing against the Panthers. Smith should be good for 15 touches going forward and, in this offense, that number should be good enough for 15-20 fantasy points in PPR on a regular basis.

Owners were quick to write off Chris Ogbonnaya’s 109-yard performance against the Rams in Week 10 as a fluke. (After all, every RB does that against the Rams, right? Even the bad ones…) However, when he did himself one better and put up 134 total yards against the Jags, people started paying a bit more attention. You see, as much as we want certain players to step up immediately for us after they are handed the starting job, it doesn’t always work like that. Generally speaking, Ogbonnaya is an average NFL talent with good hands. (And I say that as one of his earliest supporters.) If you haven’t boarded his train by now, it probably isn’t worth doing so anymore with his next three games coming against all three AFC North teams and Montario Hardesty due back this week. But we do know that Ogbonnaya is capable of producing in difficult matchups now, which is something most fantasy owners and experts would have said wasn’t possible two weeks ago. Even if Hardesty returns as expected this week, Ogbonnaya could still be a decent low-end flex option in PPR going forward.

In the battle of the movable object and the resistible force, the Colts face the Panthers this week. Now, just because I fashion myself as a “matchup owner”, it doesn’t mean I am one who likes to start a player just because his matchup says I should. What do I mean? As the Panthers have shown for most of the season, their banged-up defense doesn’t have a prayer against opposing RBs (good news for the fantasy owners of Michael Turner, Arian Foster, Ben Tate and LeGarrette Blount during the fantasy playoffs). But does that automatically mean that Joseph Addai – due back this week – or Donald Brown will become the latest RB to burn Carolina? I’d be willing to give either player a shot in my flex spot, but I’d still be more than happy to avoid either Colts RB if I had better players on my roster.

 WR Touches
Rk Player Tm 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Avg Tot Rec Catch %
1 Brandon Lloyd STL 11 DNP 7 11 4 bye 12 13 13 9 14 10.4 94 45 0.48
2 Wes Welker NE 12 11 20 14 8 10 bye 8 10 8 3 10.4 104 74 0.71
3 Calvin Johnson DET 10 7 11 13 6 9 11 7 bye 19 8 10.1 101 59 0.58
4 Roddy White ATL 13 4 17 11 9 5 10 bye 9 7 14 9.9 99 54 0.55
5 Andre Johnson HOU 11 9 12 5 DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP bye 9.3 37 25 0.68
6 Larry Fitzgerald ARI 9 7 8 11 8 bye 10 5 12 13 9 9.2 92 48 0.52
7 Steve Smith CAR 11 13 7 10 7 7 9 9 bye 8 10 9.1 91 56 0.62
8 Brandon Marshall MIA 13 11 7 8 bye 13 9 6 11 9 3 9.0 90 54 0.60
9 Dwayne Bowe KC 8 8 6 9 11 bye 10 11 10 7 9 8.9 89 48 0.54
10 Mike Williams TB 10 4 8 8 9 13 11 bye 8 5 11 8.7 87 46 0.53
11 Anquan Boldin BAL 7 7 14 2 bye 9 12 12 10 9 2 8.4 84 44 0.52
12 Reggie Wayne IND 10 8 13 9 7 6 4 14 6 6 bye 8.3 83 42 0.51
13 Pierre Garcon IND 6 5 10 8 8 11 6 15 6 6 bye 8.1 81 43 0.53
14 Hakeem Nicks NYG 11 7 5 14 7 7 bye 10 DNP 4 7 8.0 72 43 0.60
15 Antonio Brown PIT 9 6 8 10 4 2 9 15 11 6 bye 8.0 80 44 0.55
16 Vincent Jackson SD 3 15 8 4 6 bye 8 8 12 7 9 8.0 80 42 0.53
17 Steve Johnson BUF 6 14 10 6 5 10 bye 9 6 5 8 7.9 79 46 0.58
18 Greg Jennings GB 8 8 10 7 5 10 10 bye 8 5 6 7.7 77 53 0.69
19 Jeremy Maclin PHI 3 15 7 11 8 7 bye 3 9 5 DNP 7.6 68 46 0.68
20 Miles Austin DAL 9 15 DNP DNP bye 10 5 3 3 DNP DNP 7.5 45 28 0.62
21 A.J. Green CIN 4 14 5 10 8 7 bye 10 7 2 DNP 7.4 67 41 0.61
22 Victor Cruz NYG 2 2 5 9 11 4 bye 9 11 11 10 7.4 74 46 0.62
23 Mike Wallace PIT 11 9 7 4 7 6 7 7 6 10 bye 7.4 74 53 0.72
24 DeSean Jackson PHI 12 3 6 9 7 7 bye 6 8 DNP 8 7.3 66 35 0.53
25 Greg Little CLE 3 5 5 8 bye 12 7 11 8 6 8 7.3 73 42 0.58
26 Michael Crabtree SF 2 DNP 6 9 5 15 bye 9 5 4 10 7.2 65 38 0.58
27 Santana Moss WAS 8 9 8 10 bye 6 2 DNP DNP DNP DNP 7.2 43 25 0.58
28 Julio Jones ATL 6 7 7 17 4 DNP DNP bye 4 5 DNP 7.1 50 30 0.60
29 Mario Manningham NYG 7 7 DNP 5 9 8 bye 9 7 10 2 7.1 64 34 0.53
30 Jerome Simpson CIN 9 9 4 3 7 9 bye 2 10 4 13 7.0 70 34 0.49
31 Mike Thomas JAC 11 10 8 11 7 6 1 4 bye 1 11 7.0 70 35 0.50
32 Marques Colston NO 9 DNP DNP 3 6 11 7 6 5 9 bye 7.0 56 42 0.75
33 Eric Decker DEN 5 9 12 10 5 bye 3 12 5 3 5 6.9 69 34 0.49
34 Jabar Gaffney WAS 7 8 6 4 bye 10 8 5 5 6 10 6.9 69 41 0.59
35 Sidney Rice SEA DNP DNP 10 6 5 bye 5 14 8 4 3 6.9 55 32 0.58
36 Early Doucet ARI 3 6 6 6 16 bye 5 6 6 4 10 6.8 68 42 0.62
37 Dez Bryant DAL 8 DNP 4 5 bye 8 8 5 9 6 8 6.8 61 35 0.57
38 Plaxico Burress NYJ 9 2 6 8 8 4 8 bye 5 8 9 6.7 67 30 0.45
39 Nate Washington TEN 7 11 9 4 8 bye 3 6 6 4 9 6.7 67 48 0.72
40 Danario Alexander STL 0 7 8 8 bye 10 6 DNP DNP DNP DNP 6.5 39 16 0.41
41 Santonio Holmes NYJ 10 4 2 12 6 4 3 bye 6 8 9 6.4 64 35 0.55
42 Deion Branch NE 9 10 3 4 8 5 bye 7 5 9 3 6.3 63 39 0.62
43 Andre Caldwell CIN 1 4 12 5 4 4 bye 6 9 8 9 6.2 62 32 0.52
44 Darrius Heyward-Bey OAK 7 DNP 3 7 12 9 11 bye 1 0 5 6.1 55 17 0.31
45 Nate Burleson DET 5 9 2 4 4 10 3 7 bye 9 7 6.0 60 41 0.68
46 Damian Williams TEN 2 DNP 3 4 11 bye 4 5 7 7 11 6.0 54 24 0.44
47 Legedu Naanee CAR 5 7 2 11 8 2 3 7 bye 9 5 5.9 59 33 0.56
48 Percy Harvin MIN 4 8 5 7 2 9 3 5 bye 8 8 5.9 59 43 0.73
49 Laurent Robinson DAL DNP DNP 5 10 bye 2 3 8 5 3 11 5.9 47 31 0.66
50 Torrey Smith BAL 1 0 8 6 bye 5 5 9 9 8 7 5.8 58 29 0.50
51 David Nelson BUF 6 13 8 3 2 6 bye 4 7 5 4 5.8 58 40 0.69
52 Jonathan Baldwin KC DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP 5 8 5 5 6 5.8 29 11 0.38
53 Steve Breaston KC 2 2 6 5 5 bye 9 4 11 6 8 5.8 58 39 0.67
54 Davone Bess MIA 7 5 9 5 bye 3 12 5 3 6 3 5.8 58 34 0.59
55 Brandon Gibson STL 5 8 7 1 bye 10 DNP 6 5 3 7 5.8 52 28 0.54
56 Austin Collie IND 3 10 7 7 2 6 5 7 5 5 bye 5.7 57 28 0.49
57 Jason Hill JAC 5 DNP 5 9 8 3 8 5 bye 1 7 5.7 51 22 0.43
58 Denarius Moore OAK 1 8 6 5 6 4 5 bye 12 7 2 5.6 56 31 0.55
59 Andre Roberts ARI 4 7 6 0 6 bye 5 3 7 7 9 5.4 54 25 0.46
60 Jordy Nelson GB 8 2 5 6 7 3 4 bye 6 5 7 5.3 53 40 0.75
61 Eddie Royal DEN 6 3 DNP DNP DNP bye 4 13 5 2 4 5.3 37 17 0.46
62 Lance Moore NO DNP 4 9 6 6 3 4 9 3 3 bye 5.2 47 34 0.72
63 Doug Baldwin SEA 6 2 4 6 9 bye 3 8 6 3 5 5.2 52 32 0.62
64 Malcom Floyd SD 8 2 5 3 7 bye 4 7 DNP DNP DNP 5.1 36 19 0.53
65 Michael Jenkins MIN 3 3 11 1 6 6 8 2 bye 4 7 5.1 51 36 0.71
66 Earl Bennett CHI 4 1 DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP bye 5 6 9 5.0 25 17 0.68
67 Mohamed Massaquoi CLE 7 6 6 9 bye 7 2 DNP 1 DNP 2 5.0 40 20 0.50
68 Titus Young DET 1 7 8 5 4 5 3 5 bye 9 3 5.0 50 28 0.56

Words cannot express the disappointment I feel for Denarius Moore owners, but at least we didn’t have to wait long for a reason why he couldn’t beat up the injured Vikings’ secondary – a “twisted” ankle. He returned to the game after suffering the injury, but was spotted in a walking boot on Wednesday. There’s little doubt the rookie is Carson Palmer’s top option in the passing game, but a less-than-100% Moore against Chicago doesn’t inspire a great deal of confidence. Since the Raiders could easily be without their top three receivers (Moore, Jacoby Ford, Darrius Heyward-Bey) against the Bears, it is highly recommended that owners sit all members of the Oakland passing game as the team will probably give Michael Bush another 30 carries if possible.

Assuming Roddy White and Julio Jones can actually remain on the field together for more than a couple of weeks, I will buy the idea of this duo finishing as one of the top receiving tandems over the last quarter of this season. Matt Ryan should have a fine day vs. Minnesota’s CBs this week as the Vikings will likely limit the damage Michael Turner can do. The same scenario could play out vs. Houston in Week 13 although White could have a slow day vs. Johnathan Joseph. However, the Texans should have no answer for Jones. Turner could have a field day in Week 14, but the fantasy season closes out with the Jags and Saints – defenses that have done a respectable job at limiting the damage of most opposing fantasy RBs, but both opponents have secondaries that can be exploited and Jones has proven to be electric when he plays. After White’s vintage performance last week, he might finally be ready to put up the numbers we expected from him at draft time.

If Brandon Lloyd re-signs with the Rams this offseason, I can almost guarantee you that he will be a top 15 WR, if not top 10-12, on my Big Boards next season. Certainly, the possibility St. Louis adds a first- or second-round receiver in the draft are fairly high, but it’s hard to ignore the league-leading 61 times he has been targeted since his trade from Denver (12 more than second-place Larry Fitzgerald). It’s obvious he is benefitting as much from the lack of a reasonable second option in the passing game as much as he is from his skill set, but if McDaniels keeps his job for another year, Lloyd’s production isn’t going to spiral anytime soon.

There is perhaps no player with a greater difference between his floor and ceiling this week than Jerome Simpson. One look at his target line this season is probably enough to tell you that you start him at your own risk, but this week, that is even more the case than usual. Here’s the long and short of my thinking for him this week: if A.J. Green plays, start Simpson. If he doesn’t, stay as far away as possible. Browns CB Joe Haden will likely take Green again (like he did in the opener) if the rookie plays and will draw Simpson if Green sits. Please understand that I don’t usually often recommend starting a WR against fantasy’s best defense vs. WRs, but take a quick look at the number of mediocre passing attacks Cleveland has faced to this point. Cedric Benson isn’t likely to carry this offense – even in a decent matchup against the Browns, so Simpson is worth a long look if Green will play. If Green cannot play, I would put all of my Bengal chips on Andre Caldwell. (Yes, if Sheldon Brown is reading this article, this is exactly how much faith I have in your ability to cover receivers.)

 TE Targets
Rk Player Tm 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Avg Total Rec Catch %
1 Jimmy Graham NO 7 7 8 14 12 11 7 8 8 12 bye 9.4 94 62 0.66
2 Jason Witten DAL 9 14 9 10 bye 4 6 12 7 7 3 8.1 81 52 0.64
3 Kellen Winslow TB 8 8 5 6 9 10 12 bye 6 6 11 8.1 81 47 0.58
4 Rob Gronkowski NE 7 6 9 5 4 7 bye 9 15 11 7 8.0 80 56 0.70
5 Aaron Hernandez NE 10 8 DNP DNP 9 14 bye 4 5 5 7 7.8 62 41 0.66
6 Tony Gonzalez ATL 7 9 8 9 8 3 8 bye 6 10 6 7.4 74 50 0.68
7 Brandon Pettigrew DET 6 3 13 9 5 14 6 4 bye 9 5 7.4 74 50 0.68
8 Greg Olsen CAR 6 4 10 7 5 10 3 7 bye 11 9 7.2 72 37 0.51
9 Ed Dickson BAL 5 6 9 12 bye 3 5 9 5 14 3 7.1 71 42 0.59
10 Fred Davis WAS 6 7 3 6 bye 11 8 9 7 7 7 7.1 71 49 0.69
11 Antonio Gates SD 13 1 DNP DNP DNP bye 7 7 11 6 4 7.0 49 34 0.69
12 Jermaine Gresham CIN 8 5 8 7 7 6 bye DNP DNP 5 6 6.8 41 32 0.78
13 Dustin Keller NYJ 8 6 9 8 2 5 8 bye 7 4 8 6.5 65 36 0.55
14 Brent Celek PHI 3 7 2 4 5 9 bye 9 9 7 6 6.1 61 37 0.61
15 Ben Watson CLE 7 4 10 9 bye 8 4 3 2 5 4 5.6 56 30 0.54
16 Dallas Clark IND 5 8 6 4 5 7 0 10 5 DNP bye 5.6 50 28 0.56
17 Marcedes Lewis JAC 3 DNP 2 7 4 8 3 9 bye 3 11 5.6 50 23 0.46
18 Owen Daniels HOU 2 5 9 7 11 3 5 6 4 3 bye 5.5 55 37 0.67
19 Vernon Davis SF 6 2 9 6 3 2 bye 3 7 4 10 5.2 52 39 0.75
20 Jermichael Finley GB 4 6 8 6 7 4 2 bye 7 4 3 5.1 51 34 0.67
21 Heath Miller PIT 5 3 6 3 4 6 4 9 6 5 bye 5.1 51 38 0.75
22 Todd Heap ARI 3 1 10 6 DNP bye DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP 5.0 20 13 0.65
23 Visanthe Shiancoe MIN 1 7 2 8 6 7 8 4 bye 4 3 5.0 50 26 0.52

With the otherworldly production Rob Gronkowski is giving his owners, it is hard to even think about another TE. However, in most leagues, there are 11 other teams that need someone to be able to minimize the damage he can create in the fantasy box score. One of those players could be “an old is new again” alum – Brett Celek. With DeSean Jackson having sworn off the middle of the field and Jeremy Maclin a definite injury concern again this week, Celek should be heavily targeted again vs. the Patriots. New England actually ranks as one of the tougher defenses vs. opposing TEs, but have been routinely beaten by a number of comparable TEs such as Heath Miller and Jake Ballard in recent weeks. Vince Young has never been shy about using his TEs either and, even if Michael Vick somehow does make it back in time for this game, Celek’s recent run of productivity started well before Vick was injured.

With 10 targets last week, Vernon Davis revisits the five-plus target club. I still believe he will be at his best when the matchups appear to be the most difficult. As I said a couple of weeks ago, San Francisco will run and play defense with little regard for its passing attack so long as its opponents continue to be stymied by its defense. The Niners’ remaining schedule doesn’t exactly feature any great offenses, so that should remain the plan going forward. Therefore, Davis’ owners may not be able to count on much this week since San Francisco should have some success running against the Ravens minus Ray Lewis, meaning Alex Smith will resume his 170-yard, one-score ways. Davis would appear to be the most obvious mismatch the Niners have in the passing game, but given that he is also such a fine blocker and Baltimore will be bringing Terrell Suggs off the edge on a regular basis, expect San Francisco’s best TE play this week to be Delanie Walker.


Next Week’s Waiver Wire Stars

Each week, I’ll select one player at QB, RB, WR and TE that is available in at least three of my five leagues and make a case as to why they could be important to you the following week or beyond. For those of you who have been loyal readers for some time, you already know I am not concerned with making safe picks; selective and smart aggressiveness is often the name of the game in fantasy.

I cannot emphasize enough these players are not necessarily recommended additions to your fantasy team – I will make sure to make that obvious if that is the case – but have a chance, however small, to make an impact, even if it is only as a potentially valuable reserve down the line.

QB: Matt Leinart, Houston. I’d be hesitant to say this is a no-brainer selection for me, but Leinart’s timing couldn’t be much better. Cast as a horribly underachieving, overrated party boy for several years now, Leinart has the chance to step into a starting spot with a team that should win its division going away. Even better, Leinart’s first start with the Texans will almost certainly coincide with the return of Andre Johnson. Granted, I don’t expect much more than an Alex Smith-type of role for Leinart going forward, but it is hard to ignore the matchups Houston has the rest of the way. The Jags have emerged as one of the best pass defenses in the league statistically, but have lost a few key pieces that helped them achieve their lofty ranking. After that, the Texans meet (in order) the Falcons, Bengals, Panthers and Colts. While the game plan will likely be to run 35 times a game, HC Gary Kubiak isn’t going to simply ignore the passing game, especially with AJ and Owen Daniels both healthy at the same time. It would not surprise me in the least if Leinart performed like a top 15 fantasy QB from here on out.

Previous recommendations: Matt Cassel, Week 3; Vince Young, Week 4; Tim Tebow, Week 5; John Beck, Week 6; Christian Ponder, Week 7; Colt McCoy, Week 9; Alex Smith, Week 10

RB: Johnny White, Buffalo. Sometimes in fantasy, it is most beneficial to zig where others zag. Almost immediately after Fred Jackson was placed on IR Wednesday, my thoughts did not go to C.J. Spiller – who should obviously be picked up in any league where he is available – but to White, a rookie out of North Carolina. White isn’t exactly a giant – he’s only about 7-10 pounds heavier and about the same size as Spiller – but with the lack of confidence Buffalo has with Spiller’s ability to run inside, this could quickly become a committee situation. Understand that Jackson had essentially become Buffalo’s offense in recent weeks, so his loss means there isn’t likely to be a lot of production from anyone on this offense now. But he has a chance now and after facing the Jets this week, White could have some exploitable matchups against Tennessee and San Diego over the next two weeks if he proves he is ready for his opportunity in the same way Joe McKnight did last Thursday.

Previous recommendations: Alfonso Smith, Week 3; Keiland Williams Week 4; Jackie Battle/Jacquizz Rodgers, Week 5; Joe McKnight, Week 6; Phillip Tanner, Week 7; Tashard Choice, Week 9; Kevin Smith, Week 10

WR: Demaryius Thomas, Denver. Given the nature of Tim Tebow’s recent success, it’s hard to even fathom the idea of using Bronco pass catchers. But here’s what I do know: the Chargers’ defense has been an absolute sieve when it comes to stopping the deep ball, which is a stunner since they have a $40 M safety and enough talent at CB that speed receivers shouldn’t be hurting them quite this much. It won’t be surprising if one of the two deep balls the Broncos attempt on Sunday goes in the direction of Eric Decker, but Thomas should see one as well. I’m not exactly sure if Denver will use this matchup to see if it can build Tebow’s confidence as a passer or if it will execute the same kind of run-heavy gameplan it used two weeks against the Chiefs. But I have a strong feeling that Thomas or TE Daniel Fells will find themselves the recipient of a long TD pass. That description fits the game of Thomas better, so that will be my choice.

Previous recommendations: Michael Jenkins/Dane Sanzenbacher, Week 3; Mark Clayton, Week 4, Naaman Roosevelt, Week 5; Arrelious Benn, Week 6; Roy Williams, Week 7; Joshua Cribbs, Week 9; Andre Roberts, Week 10

TE: Kevin Boss, Oakland. In fantasy, we often look for unshakable trends; in other words, a matchup that has produced double-digit fantasy points in every game played against that defense. While the Bears haven’t been THAT bad against TEs, they have been close as Visanthe Shiancoe’s 9.5 fantasy-point total in PPR leagues is the lowest number posted by an opposing starting TE and the only single-digit performance against the Chicago defense this season. Throw in the fact the Raiders might be without their top three receivers and Boss coming off one of his more productive games of the season and you have some reason to believe he might put up a 12-15-point performance this week.

Previous recommendations: Ben Watson, Week 3; Jake Ballard, Week 4; Joel Dreessen, Week 5; Lance Kendricks, Week 6; Visanthe Shiancoe/Jeremy Shockey, Week 7; Dennis Pitta, Week 9; Daniel Fells, Week 10

Suggestions, comments, musings about the article or fantasy football in general? E-mail me.


Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006, appeared in USA Today’s Fantasy Football Preview magazine in each of the last two seasons and served as a weekly fantasy football analyst for 106.7 The Fan in Washington, D.C. this past season. He is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. You can also follow him on Twitter.