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Doug Orth | Archive | Email | Twitter
Staff Writer


Eye On The Prize
All Out Blitz: Volume 44
12/15/11

Aggressiveness is a characteristic that tends to reward fantasy owners more times than not. In the NFL, an offensive line will sometimes hold up long enough to give the quarterback enough time to beat man coverage down the field and make the defense look foolish against a fierce pass rush. More often than not, though, when a defense brings the heat and forces the action, crisis management becomes the name of the game for the opposing team.

In that same vein, I hope to apply that same kind of pressure to the owners in all of my leagues by beating my opponents to the punch in regards to personnel moves. Sometimes, reaching a conclusion about a player too quickly results in making a bad situation worse. However, coming to a correct conclusion two weeks or two minutes quicker than your opponents is considered foresight and can often lead to fantasy championships.

Fantasy owners can be a uneasy lot, knowing that one two-or-three-game losing streak can wreak irreparable damage to his/her team’s chances to make a visit to the fantasy postseason. But just as it is in the NFL and in life, it’s hard to land the big prize by playing scared. Thus, I will strive each week to help each of you become a smart blitzer, so to speak.


For as much enjoyment as fantasy football can provide, there is very little that is actually easy about it. Then again, I believe there is old cliché that suggests that anything worth doing isn’t supposed to be easy. So here we are in the semifinal round of the fantasy playoffs – for most of us anyway – after perhaps the most trying year, certainly in the time I’ve been playing fantasy football. Somehow, someway, you have managed to overcome the level of adversity usually reserved for the workplace (or a relationship). But just like any good job or marriage, the positive far outweighs the negative.

In much the same way, your fantasy team has probably caused you some angst this season on multiple occasions. On a personal note, this year made me question a number of views and beliefs I had about this game, which is quite the admission when I feel my basic fantasy core values and beliefs have been in place for some time now. Certainly, the passing of another season always leads to slight tweaking for fantasy owners as coordinators develop new ways to attack the other side of the ball and the rules committee uses the offseason to clarify a rule or place more emphasis on it. But as I’m sure any hard-core veteran owner will tell you, the chaos this season was unlike any other I have ever seen in this little hobby of ours.

Perhaps I’m being a bit reflective this week, but as the fantasy season nears its end in a couple of weeks, I feel it helps set the stage for an important topic to discuss this week: focus. Just like every American, this is the time of year where it is very easy to say what is done is done and just hope for the best when it comes to our fantasy teams. Between family get-togethers, office parties and trying to decide what gift to get all the people on your list, it’s not hard to lose sight of the investment you have made in your fantasy team(s) up to this point. Especially for those of us in big-money leagues, another 10 days of focus can be the difference between a few hundred or few thousand dollars. Granted, the amount of impact we have on the actual performances of the players we start is virtually zero, but we do have a certain amount of say as to whether or not we place our trust in Jeremy Maclin or DeSean Jackson’s pedigree in a difficult matchup and if that outweighs the matchup of a lower-pedigree receiver in a soft matchup (like Demaryius Thomas or Eric Decker vs. the Patriots).

Back when I wrote “Inside the Matchup” years ago, I paid special attention not only to the stats accrued by a position group against a defense, but also the kind of player that excelled/failed in his matchup against that team. While I would encourage any serious owner to do likewise, I would particularly recommend it during the fantasy postseason. Although achieving 100% roster efficiency in any week is next to impossible, 90-95% is certainly doable and is usually the difference between a win and a loss in the playoffs. Most fantasy teams get to the postseason because they either have the best talent or deepest roster, thus the margin for error is even slimmer now than it was a month or even a couple of weeks ago.

It may sound odd or even unrealistic to make sure you spend a bit more time on your fantasy teams than you already do, but now is no time to let bygones be bygones when a little more research and deep thought could be the difference between a run-of-the-mill Christmas and a happy and profitable holiday with your loved ones.

With that in mind, let’s get a look at the most recent workload and target numbers.

The cutoff at each position below is five touches/targets per game. To help provide some perspective, the average fantasy points/touch for the 62 RBs that qualify for my list above is 0.78. For the 64 WRs who qualified, the overall average for fantasy points/target is 0.57 and among the 21 that made the list at TE, it is 0.62. Feel free to use that number as a barometer to help you evaluate who is making the grade and who is not.

Note: For the players whose names and touches/targets are bolded and italicized, it reflects the touches/targets each player had with their former team before they were traded/released by that team.

 RB Workloads
Rk Player TM 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 Avg Total FPts FPts/Touch
1 Arian Foster HOU DNP 12 DNP 33 27 21 30 34 24 21 bye 29 34 19 25.8 284 251.0 0.88
2 Maurice Jones-Drew JAC 24 21 27 12 19 24 32 19 bye 28 25 22 26 33 24.0 312 250.0 0.80
3 Ray Rice BAL 23 18 13 27 bye 28 13 25 23 13 25 24 31 32 22.7 295 292.2 0.99
4 LeSean McCoy PHI 17 22 27 15 15 30 bye 32 21 17 26 14 21 30 22.1 287 295.2 1.03
5 Matt Forte CHI 21 20 16 29 26 23 27 bye 27 19 25 18 5 DNP 21.3 256 220.9 0.86
6 Marshawn Lynch SEA 15 7 20 11 16 bye DNP 16 24 37 29 25 22 25 20.6 247 192.7 0.78
7 Michael Turner ATL 13 22 11 28 16 28 27 bye 20 23 22 20 14 21 20.4 265 174.6 0.66
8 Adrian Peterson MIN 18 27 21 24 29 13 24 26 bye 14 6 DNP DNP DNP 20.2 202 188.0 0.93
9 Chris Johnson TEN 15 27 17 25 17 bye 16 17 18 31 15 24 24 16 20.2 262 186.0 0.71
10 Cedric Benson CIN 26 19 17 19 24 17 bye DNP 20 16 15 25 13 22 19.4 233 134.6 0.58
11 Steven Jackson STL 2 DNP 4 21 bye 22 22 29 30 30 18 20 11 23 19.3 232 175.7 0.76
12 Frank Gore SF 25 23 17 17 22 17 bye 31 20 7 25 15 21 10 19.2 250 163.5 0.65
13 Ryan Mathews SD 15 19 25 21 25 bye 17 19 DNP 9 15 23 16 26 19.2 230 201.3 0.88
14 Darren McFadden OAK 23 27 22 18 18 21 3 bye DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP 18.9 132 123.8 0.94
15 Beanie Wells ARI 22 14 DNP 27 20 bye 12 22 12 23 8 27 21 16 18.7 224 155.7 0.70
16 Ahmad Bradshaw NYG 14 20 20 16 17 28 bye 18 DNP DNP DNP DNP 13 9 18.3 146 132.6 0.91
17 Peyton Hillis CLE 23 31 DNP 15 bye 6 DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP 21 13 10 18.2 109 75.0 0.69
18 Shonn Greene NYJ 11 18 22 10 23 22 20 bye 19 15 4 16 25 27 17.8 232 167.9 0.72
19 Willis McGahee DEN 9 29 25 17 16 bye 18 DNP 20 4 12 23 20 18 17.6 211 133.1 0.63
20 Michael Bush OAK 9 4 10 12 4 11 19 bye 21 33 32 28 13 26 17.1 222 180.3 0.81
21 Rashard Mendenhall PIT 12 21 21 9 DNP 23 14 16 14 17 bye 19 16 18 16.7 200 138.7 0.69
21 LeGarrette Blount TB 5 13 25 26 12 DNP DNP bye 15 11 19 23 11 19 16.3 179 123.1 0.69
22 Reggie Bush MIA 20 7 12 15 bye 12 12 19 16 18 19 19 22 19 16.2 210 178.5 0.85
23 Daniel Thomas MIA DNP 19 26 DNP bye 16 21 DNP 7 17 15 7 13 9 15.0 150 70.8 0.47
24 BenJarvus Green-Ellis NE 15 18 9 17 28 15 bye 5 13 8 21 14 6 5 13.4 174 123.0 0.71
25 Mark Ingram NO 13 14 11 19 11 10 15 DNP DNP 9 bye 15 16 DNP 13.3 133 91.0 0.68
26 Brandon Jacobs NYG 6 17 9 10 DNP DNP bye 5 22 20 15 13 8 19 13.1 144 121.5 0.84
27 Roy Helu WAS 1 13 7 8 bye 4 3 3 24 9 10 30 27 29 12.9 168 141.7 0.84
28 James Starks GB 12 12 14 18 14 15 16 bye 14 16 17 4 3 DNP 12.9 155 109.5 0.71
29 Ben Tate HOU 24 27 20 2 DNP 9 15 5 12 13 bye 5 11 11 12.8 154 109.0 0.71
30 Felix Jones DAL 20 10 17 21 bye 10 DNP DNP DNP DNP 6 1 7 22 12.7 114 81.6 0.72
31 Jonathan Stewart CAR 9 14 13 12 7 10 14 15 bye 8 14 13 16 12 12.1 157 153.8 0.98
32 Kevin Smith DET DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP bye 6 20 10 12 DNP 12.0 48 75.7 1.58
33 Mike Tolbert SD 21 17 7 11 8 bye 11 DNP 23 12 8 14 6 6 12.0 144 166.5 1.16
34 Montario Hardesty CLE DNP 3 17 12 bye 13 35 2 DNP DNP DNP DNP 0 13 11.7 82 53.0 0.65
35 Joseph Addai IND 10 18 18 12 7 DNP 4 DNP DNP DNP bye 7 14 2 11.3 90 59.3 0.66
36 Darren Sproles NO 9 12 8 12 16 9 18 12 9 6 bye 10 9 12 10.9 142 214.3 1.51
37 Marion Barber CHI DNP DNP DNP 5 2 12 6 bye 10 13 6 10 14 29 10.7 107 82.7 0.77
38 DeAngelo Williams CAR 13 9 12 10 9 13 10 9 bye 8 11 15 11 8 10.6 138 111.3 0.81
39 Chris Ivory NO DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP 6 15 DNP bye DNP DNP 13 10.5 21 13.8 0.66
40 Pierre Thomas NO 9 11 8 10 10 8 15 11 12 10 bye 11 4 12 10.1 131 142.9 1.09
41 Dexter McCluster KC 9 12 14 10 5 bye 10 9 8 14 10 11 13 4 9.9 129 98.9 0.77
42 Chris Ogbonnaya CLE DNP DNP DNP 1 2 bye 8 16 14 21 23 4 6 2 9.7 97 74.0 0.76
43 Jackie Battle KC 0 0 0 5 21 bye 16 19 15 9 9 9 11 12 9.7 126 70.5 0.56
44 Ryan Grant GB 10 9 17 DNP 8 11 9 bye 4 9 4 9 14 11 9.6 115 75.0 0.65
45 Cadillac Williams STL 24 16 19 DNP bye 6 3 2 3 0 DNP DNP DNP 8 9.1 73 48.3 0.66
46 Thomas Jones KC 2 12 15 11 12 bye 9 5 3 4 8 14 16 5 8.9 116 39.3 0.34
47 Ryan Torain WAS DNP DNP DNP 19 bye 10 2 9 2 12 6 DNP DNP DNP 8.6 60 31.1 0.52
48 Donald Brown IND 0 0 0 0 8 7 9 11 17 18 bye 15 15 10 8.5 110 83.1 0.76
49 Delone Carter IND 7 11 4 7 14 14 10 11 4 6 bye DNP 3 5 8.0 96 46.6 0.49
50 Bernard Scott CIN 4 2 2 6 8 12 bye 25 6 7 9 6 5 8 7.7 100 50.8 0.51
51 LaDainian Tomlinson NYJ 11 7 11 4 3 10 8 bye 8 9 DNP DNP 2 11 7.6 84 102.4 1.22
52 Ricky Williams BAL 13 4 6 12 bye 2 3 6 10 6 6 8 16 7 7.6 99 59.3 0.60
53 Toby Gerhart MIN 2 3 3 2 2 3 1 5 bye 0 8 19 29 22 7.6 99 78.4 0.79
54 Maurice Morris DET 4 0 3 0 1 6 11 14 bye 11 8 16 17 5 7.4 96 87.1 0.91
55 Isaac Redman PIT 3 11 3 7 18 5 8 8 4 8 bye 5 8 6 7.2 94 60.8 0.65
56 Kendall Hunter SF 2 0 11 11 9 8 bye 3 8 7 12 5 7 10 7.2 93 70.1 0.75
57 C.J. Spiller BUF 6 5 2 4 4 5 bye 2 2 1 5 22 17 15 6.9 90 78.5 0.87
58 Deji Karim JAC 17 7 7 4 5 5 7 3 bye 12 4 4 DNP DNP 6.8 75 38.4 0.51
59 Danny Woodhead NE 15 6 9 2 DNP 6 bye 0 10 8 7 4 4 9 6.7 80 57.1 0.71
60 Lance Ball DEN 1 6 4 3 0 bye 6 7 4 30 7 4 9 5 6.6 86 58.9 0.68
61 Keiland Williams DET DNP 9 2 4 4 0 9 12 bye 1 1 6 3 14 5.4 65 43.7 0.67
62 Danny Ware NYG 1 3 0 1 5 5 bye 3 7 14 5 13 3 5 5.0 65 51.9 0.80

Week 14 produced some odd stat lines, perhaps the most surprising one was LeSean McCoy’s. While Miami has really stood out defending the run of late, seeing any RB – especially of McCoy’s caliber – rush 27 times for 38 yards is jaw-dropping. Obviously, his two-score performance saved his fantasy owners and the two TDs were just the third and fourth TDs the Dolphins allowed to the RB position all season long. Next up for McCoy are the Jets, who have allowed one 20-point fantasy day since Week 5 (Roy Helu). While I don’t question McCoy’s ability at all, I do question his ability to be his usual fantasy self in this matchup. Further consider that HC Andy Reid and OC Marty Mornhinweg aren’t the most steadfast believers in the running game and I wonder if McCoy’s stat line won’t look like last week’s with 0-1 scores. McCoy is always going to be a good bet for a double-digit PPR point total simply because he is so active in the passing game, but many of his owners will need him to be special over each of these final two weeks and I’m just not sure it is in the cards for him this week. With the Jets’ CBs likely able to limit the damage Jeremy Maclin and DeSean Jackson can do on the outside, it would seem New York will do its best to copy Miami’s run defense plan and make someone like Brent Celek beat them.

Much like McCoy above, I have a vested interest in Ryan Mathews. Like McCoy, Mathews also has a matchup this week owners may just have to set their lineup with him in it and hope for the best. I don’t believe in the notion of “hot” fantasy players for the simple fact that most football players – unlike shooters in basketball or hitters in baseball – have a week in between games, but it’s hard not to like the workloads and production Mathews is putting together of late. Quite frankly, when the guy isn’t fumbling or hurt, he’s a darn good and explosive RB. Baltimore is allowing just 3.4 YPC to RBs this season and Mathews is not a good bet for a score inside the 20, so his PPR owners should not expect anything more than 15 fantasy points this week, even if he is fortunate enough to receive 15-20 carries and 4-6 receptions. However, owners looking for a silver lining can say the Ravens haven’t faced a RB of Mathews’ caliber since Week 7 (Maurice Jones-Drew) or maybe Week 10 (Marshawn Lynch). Both players needed 30-plus carries to get over 100 yards, but the point is that Mathews has a shot at being a solid RB2 this week if the Chargers hang around long enough. San Diego has dominated in each of the last two weeks – albeit against weaker competition – and Mathews has benefited greatly from his passing game mates being healthy for the first time in weeks.

I think many of you know by now that I am not one to pat myself on the back all that often, if at all. However, those of you that decided to roll with Arian Foster despite his early injury woes likely benefited greatly because of it. And it is with this very part of the season that I decided to rank him so high back in August, there’s no way Carolina this week (or Indy next week) should have a shot against the Houston running game. But Foster owners already know they should be starting him…what about Ben Tate? In my biggest money league, I am facing that very same question. Let’s dig a bit deeper. Since Foster returned for good in Week 4, Tate’s best PPR game was 17.5 points. He’s averaged 10 touches/game and finished with double-digit fantasy points four times over that period. With Tate 180 yards away from 1,000, it wouldn’t be surprising if the team did everything it could over the final three games to get him there. However, I don’t see Tate’s workload going up drastically unless the Texans can blow out an opponent and I’m not sure Carolina is one of those teams that will get routed. Also keep in mind that Tate – who was running well in relief of Foster for a series early on last week– fumbled near the goal line, a crime which HC Gary Kubiak probably won’t forgive in a week. In conclusion, I would not hesitate starting Tate this week at a flex if I needed to, but I’d be leery of expecting anything more than 60-70 yards. No matter what defense a team is facing, touchdowns are always tough to predict and I’d bet more on Foster scoring twice than Tate scoring once.

It’s about time to give Shonn Greene some props on the Blitz. Greene is probably never going to be the most adept receiver, but we are starting to see some of the promise HC Rex Ryan saw in him all along and the potential that he flashed during the 2009 playoffs in his rookie season. Let’s do keep in mind that while his workload seems pretty set in stone going forward, Greene isn’t all that likely to catch three passes for 58 yards this week (like he did last week) or score three times like he did vs. Washington. His third 100-yard rushing performance of the season is certainly possible, but I suspect that he won’t have his third straight huge fantasy day against Philly. Since their Week 7 bye, the Eagles have played four teams at home and the highest-scoring RB of the bunch was BenJarvus Green-Ellis at 16.4 on a list that included DeMarco Murray, Matt Forte and Beanie Wells. In other words, be happy with Greene if he matches the “Law Firm” this week.

Really, Ryan Grant? I know the fantasy playoffs tend to create fantasy football legends, but I must admit Grant’s 22-point explosion against the Raiders was more than a bit surprising. Even with the absence of James Starks, early injury to Brandon Saine saw and the positive reports about Grant being the healthiest he has been all season could I have imagined a situation in which he would score twice and rush for 85 yards on just 10 carries. However, we need to give credit where credit is due; he took advantage of an opportunity against a soft run defense. He did show some 2009-like explosion on his 47-yard TD run, but let’s not get too excited here. Even with the backfield mostly to himself, Grant still managed just 11 touches and things probably aren’t going to change much this week against the Chiefs, especially if Starks returns. John Kuhn is still the goal-line back and Aaron Rodgers is always a threat to run for a score inside the red zone. If you got lucky with him last week as a plug-and-play, be happy with that. Week 14 was his first double-digit fantasy point total of the season and one that isn’t likely to be repeated.

 WR Touches
Rk Player Tm 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 Avg Tot Rec Catch %
1 Roddy White ATL 13 4 17 11 9 5 10 bye 9 7 14 13 15 11 10.6 138 75 0.54
2 Wes Welker NE 12 11 20 14 8 10 bye 8 10 8 3 12 11 10 10.5 137 100 0.73
3 Brandon Lloyd STL 11 DNP 7 11 4 bye 12 13 13 9 14 10 2 12 9.8 118 56 0.47
4 Calvin Johnson DET 10 7 11 13 6 9 11 7 bye 19 8 8 8 4 9.3 121 72 0.60
5 Dwayne Bowe KC 8 8 6 9 11 bye 10 11 10 7 9 11 9 10 9.2 119 65 0.55
6 Larry Fitzgerald ARI 9 7 8 11 8 bye 10 5 12 13 9 9 7 9 9.0 117 62 0.53
7 Hakeem Nicks NYG 11 7 5 14 7 7 bye 10 DNP 4 7 13 12 10 8.9 107 64 0.60
8 Brandon Marshall MIA 13 11 7 8 bye 13 9 6 11 9 3 10 6 8 8.8 114 67 0.59
9 Mike Williams TB 10 4 8 8 9 13 11 bye 8 5 11 11 9 7 8.8 114 60 0.53
10 Pierre Garcon IND 6 5 10 8 8 11 6 15 6 6 bye 8 12 12 8.7 113 60 0.53
11 Steve Smith CAR 11 13 7 10 7 7 9 9 bye 8 10 7 6 8 8.6 112 67 0.60
12 Steve Johnson BUF 6 14 10 6 5 10 bye 9 6 5 8 13 8 10 8.5 110 63 0.57
13 Andre Johnson HOU 11 9 12 5 DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP bye 3 9 DNP 8.2 49 31 0.63
14 Reggie Wayne IND 10 8 13 9 7 6 4 14 6 6 bye 7 6 8 8.0 104 56 0.54
15 Victor Cruz NYG 2 2 5 9 11 4 bye 9 11 11 10 12 9 9 8.0 104 69 0.66
16 Anquan Boldin BAL 7 7 14 2 bye 9 12 12 10 9 2 9 4 6 7.9 103 55 0.53
17 Santana Moss WAS 8 9 8 10 bye 6 2 DNP DNP DNP DNP 7 12 9 7.8 71 37 0.52
18 Greg Little CLE 3 5 5 8 bye 12 7 11 8 6 8 13 7 6 7.6 99 52 0.53
19 Michael Crabtree SF 2 DNP 6 9 5 15 bye 9 5 4 10 9 5 12 7.6 91 55 0.60
20 Jeremy Maclin PHI 3 15 7 11 8 7 bye 3 9 5 DNP DNP DNP 4 7.6 72 47 0.65
21 Antonio Brown PIT 9 6 8 10 4 2 9 15 11 6 bye 6 4 8 7.5 98 55 0.56
22 Miles Austin DAL 9 15 DNP DNP bye 10 5 3 3 DNP DNP DNP DNP 7 7.5 52 32 0.62
23 Vincent Jackson SD 3 15 8 4 6 bye 8 8 12 7 9 3 5 9 7.5 97 53 0.55
24 A.J. Green CIN 4 14 5 10 8 7 bye 10 7 2 DNP 4 11 7 7.4 89 55 0.62
25 DeSean Jackson PHI 12 3 6 9 7 7 bye 6 8 DNP 8 10 5 6 7.3 87 47 0.54
26 Mario Manningham NYG 7 7 DNP 5 9 8 bye 9 7 10 2 DNP DNP 8 7.2 72 36 0.50
27 Percy Harvin MIN 4 8 5 7 2 9 3 5 bye 8 8 8 9 15 7.0 91 69 0.76
28 Marques Colston NO 9 DNP DNP 3 6 11 7 6 5 9 bye 6 8 7 7.0 77 58 0.75
29 Darrius Heyward-Bey OAK 7 DNP 3 7 12 9 11 bye 1 0 5 10 8 11 7.0 84 43 0.51
30 Mike Wallace PIT 11 9 7 4 7 6 7 7 6 10 bye 6 5 5 6.9 90 62 0.69
31 Dez Bryant DAL 8 DNP 4 5 bye 8 8 5 9 6 8 6 14 2 6.9 83 47 0.57
32 Julio Jones ATL 6 7 7 17 4 DNP DNP bye 4 5 DNP 0 10 8 6.8 68 37 0.54
33 Nate Washington TEN 7 11 9 4 8 bye 3 6 6 4 9 6 6 9 6.8 88 59 0.67
34 Jabar Gaffney WAS 7 8 6 4 bye 10 8 5 5 6 10 7 3 8 6.7 87 52 0.60
35 Eric Decker DEN 5 9 12 10 5 bye 3 12 5 3 5 6 4 7 6.6 86 42 0.49
36 Santonio Holmes NYJ 10 4 2 12 6 4 3 bye 6 8 9 9 8 4 6.5 85 43 0.51
37 Jerome Simpson CIN 9 9 4 3 7 9 bye 2 10 4 13 5 3 6 6.5 84 38 0.45
38 Laurent Robinson DAL DNP DNP 5 10 bye 2 3 8 5 3 11 12 6 5 6.4 70 46 0.66
39 Mike Thomas JAC 11 10 8 11 7 6 1 4 bye 1 11 5 6 1 6.3 82 40 0.49
40 Plaxico Burress NYJ 9 2 6 8 8 4 8 bye 5 8 9 7 6 2 6.3 82 37 0.45
41 Damian Williams TEN 2 DNP 3 4 11 bye 4 5 7 7 11 4 7 10 6.3 75 33 0.44
42 Nate Burleson DET 5 9 2 4 4 10 3 7 bye 9 7 7 8 6 6.2 81 54 0.67
43 Deion Branch NE 9 10 3 4 8 5 bye 7 5 9 3 10 6 2 6.2 81 48 0.59
44 David Nelson BUF 6 13 8 3 2 6 bye 4 7 5 4 8 8 6 6.2 80 50 0.63
45 Early Doucet ARI 3 6 6 6 16 bye 5 6 6 4 10 1 6 4 6.1 79 48 0.61
46 Steve Breaston KC 2 2 6 5 5 bye 9 4 11 6 8 8 7 6 6.1 79 52 0.66
47 Austin Collie IND 3 10 7 7 2 6 5 7 5 5 bye 7 8 5 5.9 77 42 0.55
48 Danario Alexander STL 0 7 8 8 bye 10 6 DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP 2 4 5.9 45 18 0.40
49 Torrey Smith BAL 1 0 8 6 bye 5 5 9 9 8 7 3 4 9 5.7 74 37 0.50
50 Davone Bess MIA 7 5 9 5 bye 3 12 5 3 6 3 4 7 4 5.6 73 42 0.58
51 Denarius Moore OAK 1 8 6 5 6 4 5 bye 12 7 2 DNP DNP DNP 5.6 56 31 0.55
52 Brandon Gibson STL 5 8 7 1 bye 10 DNP 6 5 3 7 7 7 1 5.6 67 35 0.52
53 Doug Baldwin SEA 6 2 4 6 9 bye 3 8 6 3 5 10 2 8 5.5 72 45 0.63
54 Legedu Naanee CAR 5 7 2 11 8 2 3 7 bye 9 5 4 3 5 5.5 71 40 0.56
55 Andre Roberts ARI 4 7 6 0 6 bye 5 3 7 7 9 5 6 5 5.4 70 35 0.50
56 Jordy Nelson GB 8 2 5 6 7 3 4 bye 6 5 7 6 4 7 5.4 70 51 0.73
57 Lance Moore NO DNP 4 9 6 6 3 4 9 3 3 bye 7 4 6 5.3 64 45 0.70
58 Jason Avant PHI 7 4 5 8 10 4 bye 5 3 1 2 14 2 4 5.3 69 46 0.67
59 Demaryius Thomas DEN DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP bye 10 3 2 0 6 1 7 13 5.3 42 18 0.43
60 Andre Caldwell CIN 1 4 12 5 4 4 bye 6 9 8 9 3 0 3 5.2 68 37 0.54
61 Jonathan Baldwin KC DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP 5 8 5 5 6 2 4 6 5.1 41 16 0.39
62 Johnny Knox CHI 4 6 9 4 2 4 6 bye 1 2 5 10 8 5 5.1 66 36 0.55
63 Mohamed Massaquoi CLE 7 6 6 9 bye 7 2 DNP 1 DNP 2 3 5 7 5.0 55 24 0.44
64 Malcom Floyd SD 8 2 5 3 7 bye 4 7 DNP DNP DNP DNP 4 2 5.0 42 25 0.60
Hakeem Nicks

Nicks is still the clear WR1 in the Giants offense.

At the end of the season, owners may look back at the season and consider Hakeem Nicks something of a disappointment. After watching him the past two weeks and comparing that to some of his games during the middle of the season, there’s no doubt in my mind he was dealing with more pain than he was letting on a few weeks ago. While I acknowledge the Packers and Cowboys (the Giants’ last two opponents) don’t have the best CB play in the league, Nicks is simply making single coverage look foolish and is often doing the same to double coverage. (His toe-tap routine to get two feet in along the sideline on a corner route late in the Cowboys’ game was a thing of beauty as he showed great field presence and caught the ball cleanly at the same time.) Victor Cruz has stolen a lot of headlines and may end up breaking a team record or two this season, but owners preparing for drafts in 2012 should still consider Nicks the clear WR1 in this offense. When he is healthy, you can just tell that Eli Manning has all the confidence in the world that Nicks will do the right thing whereas Cruz and Mario Manningham have repeatedly dropped or fumbled catchable balls at critical moments this season. Nicks should put together another solid stat line against this week’s opponent (Washington) before his Week 16 showdown on Revis Island.

If Calvin Johnson was a mere mortal, owners could probably deal his month-long hiatus from fantasy superstardom. However, as nine TDs through five weeks and 11 scores through eight weeks proved, he is no mere mortal. Since the Lions’ Week 9 bye, opponents have finally started to treat him like the matchup nightmare he is. In case you need visual proof, here it is. The good news for any Johnson owners out there who are still playing for the big prize is that he should finish strong. HC Jim Schwartz admitted this week the team could have been more aggressive in getting “Megatron” the ball and with Oakland and San Diego remaining on the schedule, he should have plenty of opportunity to do so. Certainly, he will continue to see his usual double teams, but neither opponent has enough size in the secondary to match up to him, limit the other receivers AND stop Kevin Smith on the ground if he can stay healthy long enough this time. With weather not likely to be a factor in Oakland and a dome game in Week 16, the only reason Johnson should have for not closing out this season strong is if Matthew Stafford simply does not give him a chance to make plays.

It took a rookie QB, a high-ankle sprain to their top RB and a season-ending injury to a receiver who is best known for his ability to block, but the Vikings have finally shown the willingness and ability to throw the ball. I recall a day a few months ago when a certain writer suggested that Percy Harvin could be a top 10 WR in PPR. Lo and behold, after half a season of limiting his snaps, Harvin is currently No. 6 in total points and No. 7 in per-game average. While it should be noted that most of meteoric rise up the charts has come during the same time that Adrian Peterson and Michael Jenkins have been hurt, it goes to show you that OC Bill Musgrave put an artificial ceiling on this offense for much of the season. (Now if I could just talk to him about his usage of TE Kyle Rudolph…) However, the player I want to focus on more this week is his new running mate, Devin Aromashodu. Owners and experts alike were quick to dismiss Aromashodu’s 15-target performance in Week 13 as a fluke since Minnesota made it a point to attack Denver CB Andre Goodman as opposed to Champ Bailey. However, after another 10 targets against the Lions last week, it might be time to treat him as a possible fantasy playoff standout candidate. Neither the Saints nor the Redskins (the final two opponents on the fantasy schedule) present a difficult matchup in the passing game for the Vikings. Playing time hasn’t been a problem for Aromashodu (77 snaps in Week 13, 80 in Week 14), so the one concern for any risk-taking fantasy owner is whether or not he can improve on his 40% catch rate on his 25 targets over the past two games. It’s hard to tell how much of his potential production will be lost in the likely event Peterson returns this week, but there’s little doubt that Minnesota will need to throw in order to keep up with New Orleans. Aromashodu is at least a WR3 for me against the Saints and probably the best waiver-wire pickup at the position in most deep leagues this week.

 TE Targets
Rk Player Tm 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 Avg Total Rec Catch %  
1 Jimmy Graham NO 7 7 8 14 12 11 7 8 8 12 bye 8 10 9 9.3 121 80 0.66
2 Tony Gonzalez ATL 7 9 8 9 8 3 8 bye 6 10 6 9 10 11 8.0 104 73 0.70
3 Aaron Hernandez NE 10 8 DNP DNP 9 14 bye 4 5 5 7 7 9 7 7.7 85 59 0.69
4 Rob Gronkowski NE 7 6 9 5 4 7 bye 9 15 11 7 4 6 10 7.7 100 71 0.71
5 Kellen Winslow TB 8 8 5 6 9 10 12 bye 6 6 11 7 5 5 7.5 98 58 0.59
6 Antonio Gates SD 13 1 DNP DNP DNP bye 7 7 11 6 4 10 7 9 7.5 75 53 0.71
7 Jason Witten DAL 9 14 9 10 bye 4 6 12 7 7 3 5 6 5 7.5 97 64 0.66
8 Brandon Pettigrew DET 6 3 13 9 5 14 6 4 bye 9 5 8 5 7 7.2 94 62 0.66
9 Jermaine Gresham CIN 8 5 8 7 7 6 bye DNP DNP 5 6 9 7 7 6.8 75 43 0.57
10 Greg Olsen CAR 6 4 10 7 5 10 3 7 bye 11 9 3 4 6 6.5 85 43 0.51
11 Dustin Keller NYJ 8 6 9 8 2 5 8 bye 7 4 8 8 6 5 6.5 84 47 0.56
12 Marcedes Lewis JAC 3 DNP 2 7 4 8 3 9 bye 3 11 12 4 7 6.1 73 32 0.44
13 Ed Dickson BAL 5 6 9 12 bye 3 5 9 5 14 3 2 4 2 6.1 79 48 0.61
14 Owen Daniels HOU 2 5 9 7 11 3 5 6 4 3 bye 7 5 10 5.9 77 51 0.66
15 Brent Celek PHI 3 7 2 4 5 9 bye 9 9 7 6 6 4 5 5.8 76 49 0.64
16 Dallas Clark IND 5 8 6 4 5 7 0 10 5 DNP bye DNP DNP 6 5.6 56 29 0.52
17 Ben Watson CLE 7 4 10 9 bye 8 4 3 2 5 4 4 8 3 5.5 71 37 0.52
18 Jermichael Finley GB 4 6 8 6 7 4 2 bye 7 4 3 5 11 1 5.2 68 42 0.62
19 Visanthe Shiancoe MIN 1 7 2 8 6 7 8 4 bye 4 3 4 7 7 5.2 68 36 0.53
20 Vernon Davis SF 6 2 9 6 3 2 bye 3 7 4 10 5 8 3 5.2 68 49 0.72
21 Todd Heap ARI 3 1 10 6 DNP bye DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP 5.0 20 13 0.65

This summer, I believe I had one of the more optimistic projections for Tony Gonzalez in the fantasy community. After watching Gonzo blow right past my 60-610-5 prediction in 15 games two games ago, talk of his possible retirement seems as crazy now as it did about 2-3 years ago. By no means is he the Jimmy Graham-like matchup nightmare he once was, but as his fantasy ranking implies, he is still one of the tougher TEs to cover in football. It should be noted that he has actually picked up a bit of steam (and not worn down) over the second half of the season as well, not only in the target department, but in his fantasy production. Over the last five weeks, he’s had just one game of less than nine targets and his lowest PPR output in that time is 15.9 points. This week, he gets to extend both of those trends against a team that struggles to defend the TE in the Jags, so his owners need only be concerned about the short turnaround of a Thursday Night Football game affecting his final numbers. Week 16 offers a team Gonzo has repeatedly burned – the Saints – in what promises to be a high-scoring battle, so his owners should be able to set their lineups with him in it over the final two weeks and not think twice about it.

In what can only be described as a major coincidence (or a flashback to years past), Antonio Gates has joined his fellow old-man TE near the top of the leaderboard. While Gates gave his owners fits earlier in the season, he is slowly but surely regaining some of his pre-foot injury burst. Mind you, he’s not as fun to watch as he used to be, but he still puts on a clinic thanks to his footwork and route running. One of the more interesting developments – if he stays healthy for the remainder of this season – will be where he fits in among fantasy TEs next season. Back to this season, however, he’ll have his work cut out for him against Baltimore (second-toughest defense vs. opposing TEs) and Detroit (eighth-toughest) over the final two weeks of the regular season. The beauty of owning Gates is that unless the opponent absolutely sells out to stop him (see Week 2 vs. New England), he will get targeted by Philip Rivers – especially in the red zone – and he’ll give you double-digit fantasy points. When Gates is going right, everything else just seems to fall into place for the Chargers’ offense. It should be noted the Ravens haven’t exactly faced a who’s who list at the TE position, so while it would make sense if Ed Reed saw him in coverage from time to time, Baltimore would be taking its ball-hawking safety out of the center of the field to guard Gates’ short routes while Philip Rivers would have carte blanche to take deep shots with his big receivers. What it all means is that despite the Ravens’ top-notch defense, there is some shootout potential in this game. I would set the odds at better than 50-50 that Gates goes for at least 60 yards and a TD.


Next Week’s Waiver Wire Stars

Each week, I’ll select one player at QB, RB, WR and TE that is available in at least three of my five leagues and make a case as to why they could be important to you the following week or beyond. For those of you who have been loyal readers for some time, you already know I am not concerned with making safe picks; selective and smart aggressiveness is often the name of the game in fantasy.

With the fantasy playoffs upon us, the future is now. Therefore, each of the recommendations I make from now until Week 16 will be on players that should help immediately with the remaining schedule in mind.

QB: Jake Locker, Tennessee. Can you think of a better time for a rookie QB to get his first start than in Week 15 against the Colts? Here’s what we do know: Locker has been insanely productive in relief of Matt Hasselbeck and Indianapolis represents the third-easiest matchup in terms of fantasy points allowed per game to the QB position. As many veteran owners already know, QBs who can pick up a few yards on the ground each game tend to be pretty good plays in fantasy. Locker hasn’t exactly been sharp (46% completion rate) this season, but like Tim Tebow, he has been judicious with the ball (four TDs, no turnovers) and will run when the situation presents itself. Locker has a great arm and good enough receivers in Nate Washington and Damian Williams to be more than usable this week against a depleted Colts secondary. While this game also lines up as a great matchup for Chris Johnson, one has to believe Locker will get his numbers as well. I could easily see Locker being a top 12 play this week.

Previous recommendations: Matt Cassel, Week 3; Vince Young, Week 4; Tim Tebow, Week 5; John Beck, Week 6; Christian Ponder, Week 7; Colt McCoy, Week 9; Alex Smith, Week 10; Matt Leinart, Week 11; Matt Moore, Week 12; T.J. Yates, Week 13

RB: Kahlil Bell, Chicago. I had a strong inclination to make him the pick last week, but he makes more sense this week against a Seahawks’ defense that will likely enjoy a bit more success stopping the run (and thus, Marion Barber) than Denver did. We’ve known for most of the season the only consistent offense Chicago can provide is via the RB position. If last week was any indication, this is a 2:1 situation with Barber leading the committee. But in a game against the ball-control Broncos last week, Chicago found 43 touches for its two RBs, so desperate owners could do much worse in PPR than to find a RB capable of 12-15 touches with half of those coming via reception.

Previous recommendations: Alfonso Smith, Week 3; Keiland Williams Week 4; Jackie Battle/Jacquizz Rodgers, Week 5; Joe McKnight, Week 6; Phillip Tanner, Week 7; Tashard Choice, Week 9; Kevin Smith, Week 10; Johnny White, Week 11; Shane Vereen, Week 12; Brandon Saine, Week 13

WR: Randall Cobb/Donald Driver, Green Bay. Once Greg Jennings left the game in Week 14, we didn’t get a real big sample size of what player Aaron Rodgers would look to most in his absence. Although it could be telling that Rodgers hit Cobb on his first official pass attempt after the injury (after incurring a couple of sacks), Rodgers was done for the day on the next drive. Obviously, I would be very hesitant to put too much into one play. The biggest fantasy beneficiary of Jennings absence would seem to be TE Jermichael Finley. It is also notable that while Jennings plays in all three receiver positions for the Packers, James Jones, Driver and Cobb do not. My best educated guess for this week would be Chiefs’ interim HC Romeo Crennel will scheme to take away Finley, so there will be room for big numbers from the Packers’ receivers when they aren’t facing CB Brandon Flowers. I tend to believe Flowers will draw Jones most often in coverage, meaning Jordy Nelson (who usually operates as the split end), Driver and Cobb (usually in the slot) will pick up those numbers. Cobb is easily the best high-upside option of the two recommendations here but comes with the greatest risk. Driver should be able to match his four-catch games over the past couple of weeks, making him the safe if unexciting option. If I have the room, I would pick up both players and see what news shakes out of Green Bay during the week. Ultimately, if I HAD to pick one, I’d go Driver as the Packers will likely opt for the comfort of the veteran.

Previous recommendations: Michael Jenkins/Dane Sanzenbacher, Week 3; Mark Clayton, Week 4, Naaman Roosevelt, Week 5; Arrelious Benn, Week 6; Roy Williams, Week 7; Joshua Cribbs, Week 9; Andre Roberts, Week 10; Demaryius Thomas, Week 11; Doug Baldwin, Week 12; Brad Smith, Week 13

TE: Evan Moore, Cleveland. Based on recent weeks, the matchup against Arizona isn’t the greatest for the Browns’ pass-catching TE. But Moore has put together two respectable PPR performances against the Ravens and Steelers over the last two weeks, which makes me think No. 3 is certainly possible against the Cardinals, who are coordinated by former Pittsburgh assistant Darren Perry. Cleveland is one of the few teams in the league that probably doesn’t have the receivers necessary to take advantage of the Arizona secondary. Factor in the fact the Browns may be without Colt McCoy and it isn’t hard to imagine Seneca Wallace looking for his TEs a bit more. My recommendation of Moore isn’t a strong one, but is the best one I can see on most waiver wires as a potential fill-in for Fred Davis owners just trying to get some production from the TE spot.

Previous recommendations: Ben Watson, Week 3; Jake Ballard, Week 4; Joel Dreessen, Week 5; Lance Kendricks, Week 6; Visanthe Shiancoe/Jeremy Shockey, Week 7; Dennis Pitta, Week 9; Daniel Fells, Week 10; Kevin Boss, Week 11; Jared Cook, Week 12; Anthony Fasano, Week 13

Suggestions, comments, musings about the article or fantasy football in general? E-mail me.


Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006, appeared in USA Today’s Fantasy Football Preview magazine in each of the last two seasons and served as a weekly fantasy football analyst for 106.7 The Fan in Washington, D.C. this past season. He is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. You can also follow him on Twitter.