In that same vein, I hope to apply that same kind of pressure to the owners in all of my leagues by beating my opponents to the punch in regards to personnel moves. Sometimes, reaching a conclusion about a player too quickly results in making a bad situation worse. However, coming to a correct conclusion two weeks or two minutes quicker than your opponents is considered foresight and can often lead to fantasy championships.

Fantasy owners can be a uneasy lot, knowing that one two-or-three-game losing streak can wreak irreparable damage to his/her team’s chances to make a visit to the fantasy postseason. But just as it is in the NFL and in life, it’s hard to land the big prize by playing scared. Thus, I will strive each week to help each of you become a smart blitzer, so to speak.

For as much enjoyment as fantasy football can provide, there is very little that is actually easy about it. Then again, I believe there is old cliché that suggests that anything worth doing isn’t supposed to be easy. So here we are in the semifinal round of the fantasy playoffs – for most of us anyway – after perhaps the most trying year, certainly in the time I’ve been playing fantasy football. Somehow, someway, you have managed to overcome the level of adversity usually reserved for the workplace (or a relationship). But just like any good job or marriage, the positive far outweighs the negative.

In much the same way, your fantasy team has probably caused you some angst this season on multiple occasions. On a personal note, this year made me question a number of views and beliefs I had about this game, which is quite the admission when I feel my basic fantasy core values and beliefs have been in place for some time now. Certainly, the passing of another season always leads to slight tweaking for fantasy owners as coordinators develop new ways to attack the other side of the ball and the rules committee uses the offseason to clarify a rule or place more emphasis on it. But as I’m sure any hard-core veteran owner will tell you, the chaos this season was unlike any other I have ever seen in this little hobby of ours.

Perhaps I’m being a bit reflective this week, but as the fantasy season nears its end in a couple of weeks, I feel it helps set the stage for an important topic to discuss this week: focus. Just like every American, this is the time of year where it is very easy to say what is done is done and just hope for the best when it comes to our fantasy teams. Between family get-togethers, office parties and trying to decide what gift to get all the people on your list, it’s not hard to lose sight of the investment you have made in your fantasy team(s) up to this point. Especially for those of us in big-money leagues, another 10 days of focus can be the difference between a few hundred or few thousand dollars. Granted, the amount of impact we have on the actual performances of the players we start is virtually zero, but we do have a certain amount of say as to whether or not we place our trust in Jeremy Maclin or DeSean Jackson’s pedigree in a difficult matchup and if that outweighs the matchup of a lower-pedigree receiver in a soft matchup (like Demaryius Thomas or Eric Decker vs. the Patriots).

Back when I wrote “Inside the Matchup” years ago, I paid special attention not only to the stats accrued by a position group against a defense, but also the kind of player that excelled/failed in his matchup against that team. While I would encourage any serious owner to do likewise, I would particularly recommend it during the fantasy postseason. Although achieving 100% roster efficiency in any week is next to impossible, 90-95% is certainly doable and is usually the difference between a win and a loss in the playoffs. Most fantasy teams get to the postseason because they either have the best talent or deepest roster, thus the margin for error is even slimmer now than it was a month or even a couple of weeks ago.

It may sound odd or even unrealistic to make sure you spend a bit more time on your fantasy teams than you already do, but now is no time to let bygones be bygones when a little more research and deep thought could be the difference between a run-of-the-mill Christmas and a happy and profitable holiday with your loved ones.

With that in mind, let’s get a look at the most recent workload and target numbers.

The cutoff at each position below is five touches/targets per game. To help provide some perspective, the average fantasy points/touch for the 62 RBs that qualify for my list above is 0.78. For the 64 WRs who qualified, the overall average for fantasy points/target is 0.57 and among the 21 that made the list at TE, it is 0.62. Feel free to use that number as a barometer to help you evaluate who is making the grade and who is not.

Note: For the players whose names and touches/targets are bolded and italicized, it reflects the touches/targets each player had with their former team before they were traded/released by that team.

Week 14 produced some odd stat lines, perhaps the most surprising one was LeSean McCoy’s. While Miami has really stood out defending the run of late, seeing any RB – especially of McCoy’s caliber – rush 27 times for 38 yards is jaw-dropping. Obviously, his two-score performance saved his fantasy owners and the two TDs were just the third and fourth TDs the Dolphins allowed to the RB position all season long. Next up for McCoy are the Jets, who have allowed one 20-point fantasy day since Week 5 (Roy Helu). While I don’t question McCoy’s ability at all, I do question his ability to be his usual fantasy self in this matchup. Further consider that HC Andy Reid and OC Marty Mornhinweg aren’t the most steadfast believers in the running game and I wonder if McCoy’s stat line won’t look like last week’s with 0-1 scores. McCoy is always going to be a good bet for a double-digit PPR point total simply because he is so active in the passing game, but many of his owners will need him to be special over each of these final two weeks and I’m just not sure it is in the cards for him this week. With the Jets’ CBs likely able to limit the damage Jeremy Maclin and DeSean Jackson can do on the outside, it would seem New York will do its best to copy Miami’s run defense plan and make someone like Brent Celek beat them.

Much like McCoy above, I have a vested interest in Ryan Mathews. Like McCoy, Mathews also has a matchup this week owners may just have to set their lineup with him in it and hope for the best. I don’t believe in the notion of “hot” fantasy players for the simple fact that most football players – unlike shooters in basketball or hitters in baseball – have a week in between games, but it’s hard not to like the workloads and production Mathews is putting together of late. Quite frankly, when the guy isn’t fumbling or hurt, he’s a darn good and explosive RB. Baltimore is allowing just 3.4 YPC to RBs this season and Mathews is not a good bet for a score inside the 20, so his PPR owners should not expect anything more than 15 fantasy points this week, even if he is fortunate enough to receive 15-20 carries and 4-6 receptions. However, owners looking for a silver lining can say the Ravens haven’t faced a RB of Mathews’ caliber since Week 7 (Maurice Jones-Drew) or maybe Week 10 (Marshawn Lynch). Both players needed 30-plus carries to get over 100 yards, but the point is that Mathews has a shot at being a solid RB2 this week if the Chargers hang around long enough. San Diego has dominated in each of the last two weeks – albeit against weaker competition – and Mathews has benefited greatly from his passing game mates being healthy for the first time in weeks.

I think many of you know by now that I am not one to pat myself on the back all that often, if at all. However, those of you that decided to roll with Arian Foster despite his early injury woes likely benefited greatly because of it. And it is with this very part of the season that I decided to rank him so high back in August, there’s no way Carolina this week (or Indy next week) should have a shot against the Houston running game. But Foster owners already know they should be starting him…what about Ben Tate? In my biggest money league, I am facing that very same question. Let’s dig a bit deeper. Since Foster returned for good in Week 4, Tate’s best PPR game was 17.5 points. He’s averaged 10 touches/game and finished with double-digit fantasy points four times over that period. With Tate 180 yards away from 1,000, it wouldn’t be surprising if the team did everything it could over the final three games to get him there. However, I don’t see Tate’s workload going up drastically unless the Texans can blow out an opponent and I’m not sure Carolina is one of those teams that will get routed. Also keep in mind that Tate – who was running well in relief of Foster for a series early on last week– fumbled near the goal line, a crime which HC Gary Kubiak probably won’t forgive in a week. In conclusion, I would not hesitate starting Tate this week at a flex if I needed to, but I’d be leery of expecting anything more than 60-70 yards. No matter what defense a team is facing, touchdowns are always tough to predict and I’d bet more on Foster scoring twice than Tate scoring once.

It’s about time to give Shonn Greene some props on the Blitz. Greene is probably never going to be the most adept receiver, but we are starting to see some of the promise HC Rex Ryan saw in him all along and the potential that he flashed during the 2009 playoffs in his rookie season. Let’s do keep in mind that while his workload seems pretty set in stone going forward, Greene isn’t all that likely to catch three passes for 58 yards this week (like he did last week) or score three times like he did vs. Washington. His third 100-yard rushing performance of the season is certainly possible, but I suspect that he won’t have his third straight huge fantasy day against Philly. Since their Week 7 bye, the Eagles have played four teams at home and the highest-scoring RB of the bunch was BenJarvus Green-Ellis at 16.4 on a list that included DeMarco Murray, Matt Forte and Beanie Wells. In other words, be happy with Greene if he matches the “Law Firm” this week.

Really, Ryan Grant? I know the fantasy playoffs tend to create fantasy football legends, but I must admit Grant’s 22-point explosion against the Raiders was more than a bit surprising. Even with the absence of James Starks, early injury to Brandon Saine saw and the positive reports about Grant being the healthiest he has been all season could I have imagined a situation in which he would score twice and rush for 85 yards on just 10 carries. However, we need to give credit where credit is due; he took advantage of an opportunity against a soft run defense. He did show some 2009-like explosion on his 47-yard TD run, but let’s not get too excited here. Even with the backfield mostly to himself, Grant still managed just 11 touches and things probably aren’t going to change much this week against the Chiefs, especially if Starks returns. John Kuhn is still the goal-line back and Aaron Rodgers is always a threat to run for a score inside the red zone. If you got lucky with him last week as a plug-and-play, be happy with that. Week 14 was his first double-digit fantasy point total of the season and one that isn’t likely to be repeated.

Nicks is still the clear WR1 in the Giants offense.

At the end of the season, owners may look back at the season and consider Hakeem Nicks something of a disappointment. After watching him the past two weeks and comparing that to some of his games during the middle of the season, there’s no doubt in my mind he was dealing with more pain than he was letting on a few weeks ago. While I acknowledge the Packers and Cowboys (the Giants’ last two opponents) don’t have the best CB play in the league, Nicks is simply making single coverage look foolish and is often doing the same to double coverage. (His toe-tap routine to get two feet in along the sideline on a corner route late in the Cowboys’ game was a thing of beauty as he showed great field presence and caught the ball cleanly at the same time.) Victor Cruz has stolen a lot of headlines and may end up breaking a team record or two this season, but owners preparing for drafts in 2012 should still consider Nicks the clear WR1 in this offense. When he is healthy, you can just tell that Eli Manning has all the confidence in the world that Nicks will do the right thing whereas Cruz and Mario Manningham have repeatedly dropped or fumbled catchable balls at critical moments this season. Nicks should put together another solid stat line against this week’s opponent (Washington) before his Week 16 showdown on Revis Island.

If Calvin Johnson was a mere mortal, owners could probably deal his month-long hiatus from fantasy superstardom. However, as nine TDs through five weeks and 11 scores through eight weeks proved, he is no mere mortal. Since the Lions’ Week 9 bye, opponents have finally started to treat him like the matchup nightmare he is. In case you need visual proof, here it is. The good news for any Johnson owners out there who are still playing for the big prize is that he should finish strong. HC Jim Schwartz admitted this week the team could have been more aggressive in getting “Megatron” the ball and with Oakland and San Diego remaining on the schedule, he should have plenty of opportunity to do so. Certainly, he will continue to see his usual double teams, but neither opponent has enough size in the secondary to match up to him, limit the other receivers AND stop Kevin Smith on the ground if he can stay healthy long enough this time. With weather not likely to be a factor in Oakland and a dome game in Week 16, the only reason Johnson should have for not closing out this season strong is if Matthew Stafford simply does not give him a chance to make plays.

It took a rookie QB, a high-ankle sprain to their top RB and a season-ending injury to a receiver who is best known for his ability to block, but the Vikings have finally shown the willingness and ability to throw the ball. I recall a day a few months ago when a certain writer suggested that Percy Harvin could be a top 10 WR in PPR. Lo and behold, after half a season of limiting his snaps, Harvin is currently No. 6 in total points and No. 7 in per-game average. While it should be noted that most of meteoric rise up the charts has come during the same time that Adrian Peterson and Michael Jenkins have been hurt, it goes to show you that OC Bill Musgrave put an artificial ceiling on this offense for much of the season. (Now if I could just talk to him about his usage of TE Kyle Rudolph…) However, the player I want to focus on more this week is his new running mate, Devin Aromashodu. Owners and experts alike were quick to dismiss Aromashodu’s 15-target performance in Week 13 as a fluke since Minnesota made it a point to attack Denver CB Andre Goodman as opposed to Champ Bailey. However, after another 10 targets against the Lions last week, it might be time to treat him as a possible fantasy playoff standout candidate. Neither the Saints nor the Redskins (the final two opponents on the fantasy schedule) present a difficult matchup in the passing game for the Vikings. Playing time hasn’t been a problem for Aromashodu (77 snaps in Week 13, 80 in Week 14), so the one concern for any risk-taking fantasy owner is whether or not he can improve on his 40% catch rate on his 25 targets over the past two games. It’s hard to tell how much of his potential production will be lost in the likely event Peterson returns this week, but there’s little doubt that Minnesota will need to throw in order to keep up with New Orleans. Aromashodu is at least a WR3 for me against the Saints and probably the best waiver-wire pickup at the position in most deep leagues this week.

This summer, I believe I had one of the more optimistic projections for Tony Gonzalez in the fantasy community. After watching Gonzo blow right past my 60-610-5 prediction in 15 games two games ago, talk of his possible retirement seems as crazy now as it did about 2-3 years ago. By no means is he the Jimmy Graham-like matchup nightmare he once was, but as his fantasy ranking implies, he is still one of the tougher TEs to cover in football. It should be noted that he has actually picked up a bit of steam (and not worn down) over the second half of the season as well, not only in the target department, but in his fantasy production. Over the last five weeks, he’s had just one game of less than nine targets and his lowest PPR output in that time is 15.9 points. This week, he gets to extend both of those trends against a team that struggles to defend the TE in the Jags, so his owners need only be concerned about the short turnaround of a Thursday Night Football game affecting his final numbers. Week 16 offers a team Gonzo has repeatedly burned – the Saints – in what promises to be a high-scoring battle, so his owners should be able to set their lineups with him in it over the final two weeks and not think twice about it.

In what can only be described as a major coincidence (or a flashback to years past), Antonio Gates has joined his fellow old-man TE near the top of the leaderboard. While Gates gave his owners fits earlier in the season, he is slowly but surely regaining some of his pre-foot injury burst. Mind you, he’s not as fun to watch as he used to be, but he still puts on a clinic thanks to his footwork and route running. One of the more interesting developments – if he stays healthy for the remainder of this season – will be where he fits in among fantasy TEs next season. Back to this season, however, he’ll have his work cut out for him against Baltimore (second-toughest defense vs. opposing TEs) and Detroit (eighth-toughest) over the final two weeks of the regular season. The beauty of owning Gates is that unless the opponent absolutely sells out to stop him (see Week 2 vs. New England), he will get targeted by Philip Rivers – especially in the red zone – and he’ll give you double-digit fantasy points. When Gates is going right, everything else just seems to fall into place for the Chargers’ offense. It should be noted the Ravens haven’t exactly faced a who’s who list at the TE position, so while it would make sense if Ed Reed saw him in coverage from time to time, Baltimore would be taking its ball-hawking safety out of the center of the field to guard Gates’ short routes while Philip Rivers would have carte blanche to take deep shots with his big receivers. What it all means is that despite the Ravens’ top-notch defense, there is some shootout potential in this game. I would set the odds at better than 50-50 that Gates goes for at least 60 yards and a TD.

Next Week’s Waiver Wire Stars

Each week, I’ll select one player at QB, RB, WR and TE that is available in at least three of my five leagues and make a case as to why they could be important to you the following week or beyond. For those of you who have been loyal readers for some time, you already know I am not concerned with making safe picks; selective and smart aggressiveness is often the name of the game in fantasy.

With the fantasy playoffs upon us, the future is now. Therefore, each of the recommendations I make from now until Week 16 will be on players that should help immediately with the remaining schedule in mind.

QB: Jake Locker, Tennessee. Can you think of a better time for a rookie QB to get his first start than in Week 15 against the Colts? Here’s what we do know: Locker has been insanely productive in relief of Matt Hasselbeck and Indianapolis represents the third-easiest matchup in terms of fantasy points allowed per game to the QB position. As many veteran owners already know, QBs who can pick up a few yards on the ground each game tend to be pretty good plays in fantasy. Locker hasn’t exactly been sharp (46% completion rate) this season, but like Tim Tebow, he has been judicious with the ball (four TDs, no turnovers) and will run when the situation presents itself. Locker has a great arm and good enough receivers in Nate Washington and Damian Williams to be more than usable this week against a depleted Colts secondary. While this game also lines up as a great matchup for Chris Johnson, one has to believe Locker will get his numbers as well. I could easily see Locker being a top 12 play this week.

Previous recommendations: Matt Cassel, Week 3; Vince Young, Week 4; Tim Tebow, Week 5; John Beck, Week 6; Christian Ponder, Week 7; Colt McCoy, Week 9; Alex Smith, Week 10; Matt Leinart, Week 11; Matt Moore, Week 12; T.J. Yates, Week 13

RB: Kahlil Bell, Chicago. I had a strong inclination to make him the pick last week, but he makes more sense this week against a Seahawks’ defense that will likely enjoy a bit more success stopping the run (and thus, Marion Barber) than Denver did. We’ve known for most of the season the only consistent offense Chicago can provide is via the RB position. If last week was any indication, this is a 2:1 situation with Barber leading the committee. But in a game against the ball-control Broncos last week, Chicago found 43 touches for its two RBs, so desperate owners could do much worse in PPR than to find a RB capable of 12-15 touches with half of those coming via reception.

Previous recommendations: Alfonso Smith, Week 3; Keiland Williams Week 4; Jackie Battle/Jacquizz Rodgers, Week 5; Joe McKnight, Week 6; Phillip Tanner, Week 7; Tashard Choice, Week 9; Kevin Smith, Week 10; Johnny White, Week 11; Shane Vereen, Week 12; Brandon Saine, Week 13

WR: Randall Cobb/Donald Driver, Green Bay. Once Greg Jennings left the game in Week 14, we didn’t get a real big sample size of what player Aaron Rodgers would look to most in his absence. Although it could be telling that Rodgers hit Cobb on his first official pass attempt after the injury (after incurring a couple of sacks), Rodgers was done for the day on the next drive. Obviously, I would be very hesitant to put too much into one play. The biggest fantasy beneficiary of Jennings absence would seem to be TE Jermichael Finley. It is also notable that while Jennings plays in all three receiver positions for the Packers, James Jones, Driver and Cobb do not. My best educated guess for this week would be Chiefs’ interim HC Romeo Crennel will scheme to take away Finley, so there will be room for big numbers from the Packers’ receivers when they aren’t facing CB Brandon Flowers. I tend to believe Flowers will draw Jones most often in coverage, meaning Jordy Nelson (who usually operates as the split end), Driver and Cobb (usually in the slot) will pick up those numbers. Cobb is easily the best high-upside option of the two recommendations here but comes with the greatest risk. Driver should be able to match his four-catch games over the past couple of weeks, making him the safe if unexciting option. If I have the room, I would pick up both players and see what news shakes out of Green Bay during the week. Ultimately, if I HAD to pick one, I’d go Driver as the Packers will likely opt for the comfort of the veteran.

Previous recommendations: Michael Jenkins/Dane Sanzenbacher, Week 3; Mark Clayton, Week 4, Naaman Roosevelt, Week 5; Arrelious Benn, Week 6; Roy Williams, Week 7; Joshua Cribbs, Week 9; Andre Roberts, Week 10; Demaryius Thomas, Week 11; Doug Baldwin, Week 12; Brad Smith, Week 13

TE: Evan Moore, Cleveland. Based on recent weeks, the matchup against Arizona isn’t the greatest for the Browns’ pass-catching TE. But Moore has put together two respectable PPR performances against the Ravens and Steelers over the last two weeks, which makes me think No. 3 is certainly possible against the Cardinals, who are coordinated by former Pittsburgh assistant Darren Perry. Cleveland is one of the few teams in the league that probably doesn’t have the receivers necessary to take advantage of the Arizona secondary. Factor in the fact the Browns may be without Colt McCoy and it isn’t hard to imagine Seneca Wallace looking for his TEs a bit more. My recommendation of Moore isn’t a strong one, but is the best one I can see on most waiver wires as a potential fill-in for Fred Davis owners just trying to get some production from the TE spot.

Previous recommendations: Ben Watson, Week 3; Jake Ballard, Week 4; Joel Dreessen, Week 5; Lance Kendricks, Week 6; Visanthe Shiancoe/Jeremy Shockey, Week 7; Dennis Pitta, Week 9; Daniel Fells, Week 10; Kevin Boss, Week 11; Jared Cook, Week 12; Anthony Fasano, Week 13

Suggestions, comments, musings about the article or fantasy football in general? E-mail me.