Even though I have yet to finish all the projections or even build my first “Big Board”, fantasy football is alive and well. I am in the midst of an experts’ dynasty league draft and am eagerly anticipating my second year in the Pros vs. Joes competition put on by the Fantasy Football Players Championship (FFPC) this Friday. Last year’s entry crashed and burned in this best-ball Draftmaster-style format as my team suffered from an unexpected team change by a player (Zach Miller), season-ending injuries to two of my top five picks (Jamaal Charles and Peyton Manning) and three of my running backs (Charles, Ryan Williams and Tim Hightower), which overshadowed incredible value picks such as Wes Welker in the fourth, Steve Smith in the eighth and Darren Sproles in the 13th. The injury picks that could have been avoided – Manning and Williams – are the very reason I don’t participate in early money-league drafts, especially those that follow lockouts. However, I could have still made a strong run for the title if Kyle Orton hadn’t been my only other quarterback. Since the draft is the first and last act an owner makes in Draftmaster format, I was helpless to address the position and received zero points each week from my quarterback for about half a season.

But as a wise man once said, “You are the only person that cares about your fantasy team.” So with that bit of wisdom dispensed, let’s move on with the show…

Here’s a quick review of what each color means in my color-coded family:

Red – A very difficult matchup. For lower-level players, a red matchup means they should not be used in fantasy that week. For a second- or third-tier player, drop your expectations for them at least one grade that week (i.e. from WR2 to WR3). For elite players, expect them to perform one level lower than their usual status (i.e. RB1 performs like a RB2).

Yellow – Keep expectations fairly low in this matchup. For lower-level players, a yellow matchup is a borderline start at best. For a second- or third-tier player, they can probably overcome the matchup if things fall right. For the elite players, expect slightly better than average production.

Grey– Basically, this matchup is one that could go either way. In some cases, I just don’t feel like I have a good feel yet for this defense. Generally speaking, these matchups are winnable matchups for all levels of players.

Green – It doesn’t get much better than this. For non-elite players, the stage is basically set for said player to exploit the matchup. For the elite player, this matchup should produce special numbers.

One notable change I made from last year regarding the labeling of red, yellow or green matchups is acknowledging that while elite players can sometimes have unfavorable matchups, their all-around game simply makes them impossible to bench. (To take an obvious example, sitting Michael Turner or Shonn Greene in a road matchup vs. a fully healthy Seahawks defense is an understandable move because Turner and Greene are highly dependent on the running game in order to be viable in fantasy and Seattle’s run defense is pretty solid when healthy, particularly at home. On the other hand, LeSean McCoy cannot be benched against any defense simply because he is so likely to get his 100 total yards almost regardless of the competition since he is so versatile.) As a result, the elite players will have mostly yellow boxes where the non-elite players would typically have red. As far as the passing game is concerned, more defenses are talking about using “shadow” CBs than in recent years. (And just to be clear, the term “shadow” doesn’t mean that he is locked onto a team’s top option 100% of the time.) There are the ”shadow” CBs most of us have become familiar with – names such as Darrelle Revis, Johnathan Joseph and Joe Haden – who will warrant a red box by many of the top receivers they face. Many other cornerbacks – players like Nnamdi Asomugha and Asante Samuel come immediately to mind – typically remain on one side of the field, making it difficult to give an opposing a true red since they may escape either player by spending most of their time in the slot. In the case of Samuel, however, he will have an equally effective corner opposite him in Brent Grimes, making the slot (against the disappointing Dunta Robinson) the only place of refuge for opposing receivers.

I’ve updated the notes since last week, so please read over them closely to better understand what you see below in the tables:

Notes:

1. The grey highlight in each team’s schedule reflects a road game.
   
   
2. These are my initial projections and therefore subject to change. In a few cases, the changes will be dramatic. Changes may come in the form of a different-colored matchup and/or a player’s “game log”. In some cases, a strong preseason may warrant the inclusion of one name in a team projection and the removal of another. I also feel obligated to mention that players with minimal projections (such as less than 100 yards rushing or receiving) will be excluded from this four-week series but have been accounted for in my overall projections.
   
   
3. For all those readers whose eyes gravitate immediately to the player’s final numbers: they are 15-game totals because most fantasy seasons have a Week 16 title game.
   
   
4. The age you see by each player will be that player’s age as of September 1, 2012.
   
   
5. Since some players have such a unique role – Brad Smith last week and John Kuhn this week, for example – I have listed all their matchups as neutral.
   

Key to the table below:

PPR Aver - Points per game in full-point PPR leagues where all touchdowns are worth six points.
NPPR Aver - Points per game in non-PPR leagues where all touchdowns are worth six points.
PPR - Total points scored in PPR
Non-PPR - Total points scored in non-PPR.

AFC NORTH

Matchup analysis: In order for the “Law Firm” to recoup some of the fantasy value he had during his final two years with the Patriots, he needed to be featured in Cincy since he won’t have the same kind of regular access to the end zone that he did in New England. That doesn’t appear to be happening here and, with his matchups, he looks to be a poor bet to reach double-digit touchdowns for the third straight season. (If he has one saving grace, however, it is that he is one of the best goal-line backs in the league.) Each year, the 3-4 games during the fantasy season against the Steelers and Ravens don’t come as a surprise, but there just isn’t much reason for optimism in this backfield this year with four more games against the improved defenses of the NFC East and a few potentially good offensive teams from the AFC West at the end of the schedule that may force Cincinnati to abandon the run. Green-Ellis’ best shot at fantasy value early are in Weeks 2, 5 and 6; after the break, he’s going to need help. Scott offers big-play potential, but he’s going to be hard-pressed to make a huge difference in fantasy with a ceiling of roughly 150 touches, most of which figure to be rushing attempts. In the passing game, Green also has his work cut out for him against a number of the league’s top corners and/or pass defenses, but proved last season that he is already up to the challenge in that regard. I doubt the same can be said about any of the other aforementioned receivers (Sanu, Jordan Shipley, Tate or Binns) and their ability to produce consistently against the highest level of competition, which should lead to an increased reliance on Gresham. As a result of the challenging defenses the Bengals should expect to see this year, don’t be surprised to see a bit of a “sophomore slump” from Andy Dalton. While his likely regression will probably be attributed to defenses “figuring him out”, he will almost certainly be able to place the bulk of the blame in a running game that may not strike fear into many opponents and a group of secondary receivers (of course, not including Green) too young to overcome it.

Matchup analysis: With a fair amount of buzz coming out of Cleveland that Brandon Jackson will take some or most of the passing-down work, it would be a minor shock if Richardson hasn’t already assumed that role early in the season. Like the back he has been compared to repeatedly throughout the offseason – Adrian Peterson – Richardson won’t be matchup-proof simply because he won’t likely be given the opportunity to catch 40-50 balls right away like the Ray Rices, Arian Fosters and LeSean McCoys of the world. But with a solid run-blocking line in front of him and commitment to him as the centerpiece of this offense, only a lackluster showing by the Browns’ defense (i.e. falling behind by multiple scores early in games) or injury figure to keep Richardson from producing like a low-end RB1 right away. The first half of the schedule isn’t particularly easy, but for someone with his combination of talent and expected workload, it also isn’t overly daunting either. The hardest stretch appears to be the five-week period in the two weeks before and after the bye. The payoff for his owners should come after that during the fantasy playoffs. I’m not nearly as optimistic about the passing game, however, even though I do expect Little to build on a 61-catch rookie season. Little has reportedly made huge strides this offseason and will benefit from the talent upgrades around him, including a more accurate and stronger-armed quarterback. With so many first- and second-year players expected to be playing key roles, it wouldn’t be fair to expect Weeden to pull an Andy Dalton and push this team into the playoffs with a positive TD-to-INT ratio. In three of his first five games, Weeden will be asked to face some of the teams that should have the best pass rushes in the game this year. In the other two games, he must face Cincinnati and Baltimore on the road. Even though I did highlight two green matchups for Weeden, I expect HC Chuck Pagano to have his Colts’ defense overachieving by the middle part of the season and HC Dennis Allen to have his Raiders’ secondary playing well by the time the Browns visit.

Matchup analysis: Wallace had better be ready to hit the ground running when he reports because he could get off to a rather poor start against the likes of Champ Bailey and Darrelle Revis in Weeks 1-2. He may find refuge against the Raiders in Week 3, but the Steelers have an early bye in Week 4 and face the venerable Eagles’ secondary the following week. It may be at that point fantasy owners want to trade for him since he has “winnable” fantasy matchups in eight of the final 12 games of the fantasy season. The argument could be made that a safer receiver might be teammate Antonio Brown since he obviously benefits from all the attention Wallace commands. After all, Brown will face lesser coverage more regularly and has already earned the respect of Roethlisberger. Whereas Wallace could see shadow coverage at various points in nearly half of his games in 2012, Brown should have it relatively easy by comparison. Assuming Mendenhall begins the season on the PUP list, this is where the running game gets interesting. While the quarterbacks and receivers could struggle to get going early with some difficult matchups, the same is unlikely to be said about the ground game led by Isaac Redman. Only the Jets strike me as a possible tough matchup out of the first six opponents and even they need to make a great deal of improvement on their lackluster showing in 2011. With Mendenhall likely to return about the time that “easy” stretch comes to an end and the strong possibility that a run of tougher defenses is about to begin, it may not be a bad idea to shop Redman at that time. It’s also entirely possible that we know as much now as we will in Week 7 or 8 about whether Redman will have grabbed ahold of the feature-back role or if Pittsburgh will force the two to work in tandem. Worse yet, there is always the possibility that a motivated Jonathan Dwyer will force his way into the conversation. And if any or all of that comes to fruition, it is too bad since Pittsburgh addressed its offensive line this offseason and has provided fantasy owners with a consistent RB2 option for several years now.

NFC NORTH

Matchup analysis: With the aforementioned personnel upgrades and perhaps the softest slate of matchups I have seen to this point (relative to the talent on the offense), Cutler is going to have his best shot at 4,000+ yards and 25+ TDs since posting the best fantasy season of his career in 2008 – his final season as a Bronco when Bates was his position coach. Of the Bears’ first eight games, only the Rams’ Cortland Finnegan, the Cowboys’ Morris Claiborne and the Jaguars’ Derek Cox have the size and/or feistiness to challenge Marshall. Of those three, only Finnegan (the smallest but feistiest of the bunch) is likely to shadow him. Marshall – and by extension, Cutler – could have a rough second half if Jeffery doesn’t develop at the rate the Bears want him to since the elite defenses of the Niners and Texans are followed by three games against the Vikings (who have a very capable CB with size to frustrate Marshall in Chris Cook) and Seahawks, who start a pair of cornerbacks in 6-3 Richard Sherman and 6-4 Brandon Browner that proved their worth in 2011. In Weeks 15-16, Chicago must face what should be an improved Packers secondary and Marshall will likely have a “shadow date” the next week with Arizona’s Patrick Peterson, who we should expect to be dramatically better as a cover CB at the end of his second season than he was as a rookie. Shifting to the running game, a fast start can be expected with the likes of the Colts and Rams in September and the Lions, Panthers and Titans in the three weeks following the bye. While the all-around game of Forte and goal-line opportunities Bush will have in this offense should keep them both relevant in fantasy, Week 9 may be a good time to sell both players as Houston, San Francisco, Seattle, Green Bay and Arizona all have the personnel necessary to wreak havoc on the Bears’ rushing attack.