All the fantasy football information in the world is meaningless unless it can be put to use in one handy draft-day tool, which I refer to as “The Big Boards”. I have enjoyed a great amount of success since I began using this system back in 2008 and, based on the e-mails I receive throughout the year, it appears many others have experienced similar success. However, I’d be the first to admit that even with the best draft-day tools at your disposal, much of fantasy football is won by the moves owners make following their drafts.

But before we can get there, we need to resolve the here and now. And this week, that means we will take our fourth and final look at my game-by-game breakdown of each division. Before digesting my latest round of projections, feel free to review my thoughts and forecasts for the AFC and NFC East as well as the AFC and NFC North and AFC and NFC South. I feel it is important to note that I do not use this forecasting method to justify taking a very good player over an elite player. Since the most elite player in just about every sport is what we like to call “matchup-proof”, there is often no reason to move them down a draft board in the first place. The trick is understanding there are few true matchup-proof players, so winning a league can often come down to which fantasy team’s non-elite players perform better and that is truly where I believe using Preseason Matchup Analysis helps the most.

****One perfect example of the reason I believe in my method of evaluation just before press time this week with the late-breaking news of Terrell Owens signing in Seattle. On the downside, entire team projections must change (which requires a lot of time as noted in past columns). The upshot to that is that while other prognosticators simply write in 60-900-6 as Owens’ projection for the season, I have to actually consider such factors as increased pass-to-run ratio, players that benefit the most/least from his presence and what kind of defensive matchups he should anticipate for the upcoming season. The fact that I am forced to consider such variables after a high-profile transaction is a good thing. I will always trade spare time for accuracy when it comes to projecting players because it usually pays off in the end.

For those of us in high-stakes leagues, we know consistent success in this hobby is difficult. By extension, this fact means the preparation necessary to claim the grand prize or championship each season consists of more than casually eyeballing a player’s season totals and assigning him a number. The method I choose to use – painstakingly predicting each individual matchup during the fantasy season – takes into account the requisite factors such as a player’s talent, supporting cast, scheme, injury history and age in much the same way every other fantasy owner and/or analyst does. I believe the key difference with my projection system offers is that I actually account for the likelihood that a safety like Oakland’s Tyvon Branch will be matched up primarily with Rob Gronkowski (it’s a matchup Branch won rather handily last season) or how often the Jets’ Darrelle Revis matches up against Wes Welker (it doesn’t happen as often as you’d think).

In short, I am not using a team’s schedule as my only means to project (and ultimately rank) a player. Forecasting the season using Preseason Matchup Analysis takes me almost three weeks to complete and needs to be updated regularly as new information becomes available throughout the preseason. It is part of a much bigger picture that starts in early June that doesn’t really end until I submit my final Big Board in early September. Since the goal of this hobby is winning the fantasy title, my emphasis is on securing as many good matchups during the regular season (and particularly the fantasy playoffs) as possible. While I will not suggest there is a huge difference between the Broncos and Chargers’ defenses this season, it is the likely matchups within the game that often determine how the fantasy-point pie is distributed. I do know that I’d prefer that my running back is facing the Panthers and not the Ravens or Steelers during the most important time of the season. For receivers and quarterbacks, I’ll take my chances against the Lions’ secondary and do my best to avoid the Jets. When you get right down to it, my method is all about increasing your likelihood of success during the fantasy postseason – a time when there is usually very little separating each of the remaining playoff teams.

Much like any projection “system”, each year gives me the opportunity to tweak and hopefully improve the product. In my never-ending quest to make my PSAs and Big Boards the best draft preparation guides I can, I have made a few tweaks that I want to share with you. By now, you should be familiar with my color-coded family. Here’s a quick explanation of each:

Yellow – Keep expectations fairly low in this matchup. For lower-level players, a yellow matchup is a borderline start at best. For a second- or third-tier player, they can probably overcome the matchup if things fall right. For the elite players, expect slightly better than average production.

Grey– Basically, this matchup is one that could go either way. In some cases, I just don’t feel like I have a good feel yet for this defense. Generally speaking, these matchups are winnable matchups for all levels of players.

Green – It doesn’t get much better than this. For non-elite players, the stage is basically set for said player to exploit the matchup. For the elite player, this matchup should produce special numbers.

One notable change I made from last year regarding the labeling of red, yellow or green matchups is acknowledging that while elite players can sometimes have unfavorable matchups, their all-around game simply makes them impossible to bench. (To take an obvious example, sitting Michael Turner or Shonn Greene in a road matchup vs. a fully healthy Seahawks defense is an understandable move because Turner and Greene are highly dependent on the running game in order to be viable in fantasy and Seattle’s run defense is pretty solid when healthy, particularly at home. On the other hand, LeSean McCoy cannot be benched against any defense simply because he is so likely to get his 100 total yards almost regardless of the competition since he is so versatile.) As a result, the elite players will have mostly yellow boxes where the non-elite players would typically have red. As far as the passing game is concerned, more defenses are talking about using “shadow” CBs than in recent years. (And just to be clear, the term “shadow” doesn’t mean that he is locked onto a team’s top option 100% of the time.) There are the ”shadow” CBs most of us have become familiar with – names such as Darrelle Revis, Johnathan Joseph and Joe Haden – who will warrant a red box by many of the top receivers they face. Many other cornerbacks – players like Nnamdi Asomugha and Asante Samuel come immediately to mind – typically remain on one side of the field, making it difficult to give an opposing a true red since they may escape either player by spending most of their time in the slot. In the case of Samuel, however, he will have an equally effective corner opposite him in Brent Grimes, making the slot (against the disappointing Dunta Robinson) the only place of refuge for opposing receivers.

As you can tell, a lot of thought goes into this…here are some final notes to help you understand what you see below in the tables:

Notes:

1. The grey highlight in each team’s schedule reflects a road game.
   
   
2. These are my initial projections and therefore subject to change. In a few cases, the changes will be dramatic. Changes may come in the form of a different-colored matchup and/or a player’s “game log”. In some cases, a strong preseason may warrant the inclusion of one name in a team projection and the removal of another. I also feel obligated to mention that players with minimal projections (such as less than 100 yards rushing or receiving) will be excluded from this four-week series but have been accounted for in my overall projections.
   
   
3. For all those readers whose eyes gravitate immediately to the player’s final numbers: they are 15-game totals because most fantasy seasons have a Week 16 title game.
   
   
4. The age you see by each player will be that player’s age as of September 1, 2012.
   
   

Key to the table below:

PPR Aver - Points per game in full-point PPR leagues where all touchdowns are worth six points.
NPPR Aver - Points per game in non-PPR leagues where all touchdowns are worth six points.
PPR - Total points scored in PPR
Non-PPR - Total points scored in non-PPR.

AFC West

Matchup analysis: In the event that Charles trusts his knee by the time November rolls around, it is possible he and Hillis could carry a number of fantasy teams to strong finishes. From Week 12 on, the Chiefs face what projects to be the softest schedule against the run in the league. Perhaps the Broncos or Panthers can get Kansas City out of its run-based gameplan with an early offensive explosion, but with both games being in Arrowhead Stadium, I doubt it. While the pre-bye schedule has some green matchups, it’s not a slate that is overly favorable. Thus, owners should have about a 6-7 week window to figure out if they like what they see from Charles before dealing for him. On the other hand, Hillis is such a huge upgrade from Jones that it might be difficult to take him off the field, especially at the goal line. Bowe isn’t exactly matchup-proof since Cassel is his quarterback, but assuming his unwillingness to sign the franchise tag and report to camp doesn’t go much longer, he is pretty close. If he reports, he’ll have a chance to get up to speed and be useful in fantasy against the Falcons’ and Ravens’ secondary as well as likely “shadow” matchups against Aqib Talib, Ike Taylor and Chris Gamble. (Obviously, the same cannot be said if Baldwin is forced into that spot.) As we saw in 2010, Moeaki is capable of great things, but he has been plagued by injuries for most of his college and pro career. Although he is skilled enough to post a 60-catch season and neutralize the three red matchups he has, he is much too risky for the Chiefs or fantasy owners to count on for an entire season.

Matchup analysis: Of the nine years he has been a NFL offensive coordinator, Knapp has overseen just one offense that finished in the top 10 in passing yards (10th; 2003 Niners). In the six years since (2004-2009) since he stopped calling plays for Jeff Garcia and Terrell Owens, Knapp’s offenses have finished in the top half of the league in passing offense once. It is with this in mind that I am not exactly optimistic when it comes to the 2012 Raiders. The pieces are there for an explosive offense, but Knapp’s love for the running game makes me skeptical that he is the right man for the job. Carson Palmer doesn’t catch a break from his old stomping the grounds – the AFC North, which has a number of solid pass defenses – and doesn’t exactly have a sterling slate to wrap up the season with four straight defenses that have cornerbacks that can neutralize a receiver. And I’m not exactly thrilled with the first 11-12 weeks either since the Bucs and Saints strike me as the only opponents capable of surrendering high-yardage and high-TD games to a quarterback. This obviously does not bode well for Moore or DHB, although I expect the latter to be more consistent if Moore ends up drawing more of the attention from defenses, as I suspect he will. Like a young Brandon Lloyd, Moore is capable of overcoming all the red on this schedule, but he will be a risky proposition given the lack of durability he showed last season. The aforementioned switch in blocking schemes is a small concern for McFadden, but he has shown himself to be nearly matchup-proof when healthy in recent years. In the unlikely event this is the year he manages to play all 16 games, then Knapp’s run-based offense should pay off. The first half of the schedule has its share of defenses that could minimize McFadden’s impact as a runner, but he could put together a pretty special second half against the three worst run defenses of the NFC South, Denver (a team he has shredded in recent years) and Cleveland.

Matchup analysis: If Mathews is truly ready to announce his arrival as an elite fantasy back, the schedule should offer little resistance…until the end. I have a great deal of confidence that Mathews can exploit each of the seven greens I have given him through the first 10 games, meaning he could easily be the league’s top rusher before facing three straight AFC North foes. Still, if there was ever a year for an elite back to face Pittsburgh and Baltimore, this might be that year with the Ravens losing run-stuffing OLB Jarrett Johnson (ironically, to the Chargers) and sack demon Terrell Suggs to injury, with the implication being that OLBs – especially Johnson – can be key to stuffing the run. The Steelers could also be ripe for the picking as well against a dominant runner since they have an older defense that is returning NT Casey Hampton from ACL surgery and will be asking Larry Foote to fill the big shoes of ILB James Farrior. The members of the passing game do not appear to be as fortunate as their running game brethren, particularly Meachem. Only Oakland and New Orleans offer refuge for an unproven lead receiver that will need to display the ability to run the entire route tree (something he didn’t get much opportunity to show as a Saint) against elite corners such as Brandon Flowers and Champ Bailey and the tough pass defenses of the AFC North, among others. As always, Rivers will likely lean on Gates for as long as he can, but don’t dismiss Royal as the most reliable option in the slot Rivers has enjoyed since he became the regular starter in 2006. In my opinion, it will be the contributions (or lack thereof) from Mathews, Gates and Royal that determine whether or not Rivers rebounds from 2011 or not.

NFC West