One reason why the NFL Draft seemed like it lacked fantasy star
power was because the month-plus leading up to it had no shortage
of big names. No fewer than seven players who have recently been
drafted in the first 3-4 rounds of fantasy drafts changed teams
in the offseason, with most of them departures improving their fantasy
situations as a result.
The NFL is a constantly-evolving machine. Very little stays the
same from year to year, but as fantasy owners, we almost need
to assume some situations will remain static so we can make reasonable
guesses about how the new (rookies) and old (free agents) players
fit into their current situations. After all, if we treat the
players whose situations remain pretty much the same from the
previous year as constants, then it is the ability to predict
the variables (such as how the players adapt to their new environment
and the positive/negative impact they can have on the constants)
that can sometimes determine which fantasy owners excel and which
ones do not.
So far, I have provided my thoughts about the incoming rookie
class (11-20) and (1-10).
In the coming weeks, we’ll move on to the two-part Early
Observations phase of my Preseason Matchup Analysis series.
After that, we’ll revisit each teams’ red-zone activity
in Red Zone Report and
break down how often opportunity really leads to success in Opportunity
Breeds Success. Then the fun really begins as we tackle two
divisions at a time as all the hard work leads to the projection
half of my PMA series.
But for now, let’s turn our attention back to old faces
in new places. (The players will be separated initially by position
then ordered by likely “impact” in 2013):
QB
Carson Palmer
2012 Team: Oakland
2013 Team: Arizona
Fantasy Analysis: Arizona is typically
a hotspot for people ready to retire, but the Cardinals are hoping
to put off Palmer’s walk by into the sunset at least 2-3 years
after trading for him in April. Statistically, the former No.
1 overall pick had his finest season since 2007, but so much of
his production in 2012 was inflated by garbage-time production
that it is really difficult to say he was as good as his numbers
suggest he was. (Palmer threw for 4,018 yards, 22 touchdowns and
14 interceptions last season. Of those totals: 2,972 yards, 20
TDs and 11 INTs were accumulated when Oakland trailed.) To his
credit, Palmer did appear to be healthier than he had been in
years; his arm strength was better in Oakland than it was at any
point since he suffered his elbow injury in Cincinnati. In new
HC Bruce Arians’ vertical-based offense, his deep ball will need
to be every bit as good as Arians believes it is. (Arians recently
told Yahoo! Sports that Palmer is “"as pretty a deep-ball thrower
as I've ever seen”.) Palmer will have arguably his deepest, most
talented group of receivers and tight ends to work with in his
career, so a Kurt Warner-like, late-career resurgence is not totally
out of the question. However, he’ll need Arizona’s beleaguered
offensive line to improve dramatically – not a given despite the
selections of guards Jonathan Cooper and Earl Watford in the draft.
With the quarterback position experiencing something of a youth
movement over the past year or two – and thereby adding to the
quality fantasy QB1 options in fantasy – Palmer should be targeted
as a high-upside QB2 in redraft leagues this summer.
QB
Alex Smith
2012 Team: San Francisco
2013 Team: Kansas City
Fantasy Analysis: After experiencing six mostly disappointing
years (with more play callers than any quarterback should have
in his career) in San Francisco, Smith enjoyed a renaissance under
HC Jim Harbaugh and OC Greg Roman in 2011. Under Harbaugh and
Roman, Smith went from a turnover-prone player to a signal-caller
worthy of making consistently good decisions with the football.
Although he’ll be attempting to learn yet another offensive
system, Smith will benefit by playing for another pass-friendly
coach in Andy Reid, who succeeded with quarterbacks less talented
than Smith in Philadelphia. Reid, who has openly stated his love
for the passing game on several occasions, is unlikely to go against
his pass-heavy roots. However, Reid’s willingness to bring
in offensive consultant Chris Ault (the creator of the “Pistol”
formation) and embrace the up-tempo approach sweeping through
the NFL are signs he is willing to adapt. Smith has yet to throw
for more than 18 TDs in a season and isn’t a strong bet
to do so in 2013, but if there is one coach who can coax that
kind of production out of him, it might be Reid. Smith will have
very good skill-position players such as Jamaal Charles and Dwayne
Bowe to lean on and his ability to run will help his value, but
he still faces an uphill climb to be anything more than a mid-level
fantasy QB2 this season.
Situation and talent should allow SJax
to finish among the top 10 fantasy running backs this season.
RB
Steven Jackson
2012 Team: St. Louis
2013 Team: Atlanta
Fantasy Analysis: Few, if any teams, did more to improve themselves
at one position during free agency than the Falcons when they
signed Jackson. Michael Turner showed serious signs of decline
in 2011 and had no “Burner” left in him in 2012. Although
Jackson is only about 1 ½ years younger than Turner, the
ex-Ram seems like a good bet to be productive throughout most
– if not all – of his new three-year contract. Jackson
hasn’t caught fewer than 38 passes – exactly twice
the career-high 19 receptions Turner recorded last season –
since becoming a full-time back in 2005 and will have the benefit
of facing seven in the box on a regular basis for the first time
in his career. Jackson is no longer the size-speed dynamo he used
to be and will turn 30 in July, but has consistently produced
a solid yards-per-carry average playing behind an abysmal offensive
line in St. Louis. It’s also quite likely that with Jackson’s
receiving prowess, Jacquizz Rodgers will play a reduced role in
the offense once again. Motivated to make the playoffs for the
first time since his rookie season in 2004, Jackson could easily
push his career high for rushing scores (13 in 2006), which is
hardly a stretch considering Turner had 10 in 2012. Jackson’s
slightly declining numbers, career workload and age might push
him into the RB2 discussion in redraft leagues this summer, but
his situation and talent level should allow him to finish among
the top 10 running backs in fantasy this season.
RB
Reggie Bush
2012 Team: Miami
2013 Team: Detroit
Fantasy Analysis: With Jahvid Best facing long odds to return
to the field, the Lions found their passing-game complement to
Mikel Leshoure in Bush. Although HC Jim Schwartz has suggested
Bush would be used like he was in New Orleans, it would be mildly
surprising if Bush doesn’t become more than just a “satellite
back”. The No. 2 overall pick in the 2006 draft averaged
58.8 receptions with the Saints despite playing only 12 games
per season, making Schwartz’s prediction that Bush could
catch as many as 80 balls for Detroit in 2013 a pretty realistic
ceiling. Playing on turf once again, Bush will have to prove his
knees can hold up as well as they did on the grass in Miami, but
that would seem to be about the only real obstacle he has to overcome
to be the dynamic PPR player that Best could/should/would have
become in this offense. It should come as no surprise that if
the 28-year-old stays healthy all season, he should be able to
collect at least 175 carries in addition to all those receptions,
totals that should give him more than enough opportunity to be
a solid RB2 in standard leagues and a top 10 candidate in PPR
formats.
RB
Rashard Mendenhall
2012 Team: Pittsburgh
2013 Team: Arizona
Fantasy Analysis: More than anything, Mendenhall picked a bad
time to get hurt. First of all, he tore his ACL in Week 17 of
the 2011 season, meaning he had to enter his contract year far
less than 100%. Secondly, he had the misfortune of suffering the
same kind of injury as Adrian Peterson, who merely raised the
bar on ACL rehabs impossibly high by nearly breaking the single-season
rushing mark the year after he underwent his knee surgery. Mendenhall
will never be mistaken for a special talent, but he’ll get
a chance to re-establish himself as a feature back with the Cardinals
under new HC Bruce Arians, who served as his play-caller in Pittsburgh.
As any serious fantasy owner likely remembers, Arizona was so
awful on offense that it made Larry Fitzgerald nearly irrelevant.
The Cardinals can’t be expected to turn that around in one
year, but the addition of Palmer at quarterback and Cooper to
the offensive line through the draft (plus better luck in the
health department up front) should allow Mendenhall to reclaim
the same kind of fantasy value he enjoyed as a Steeler for a coach
who believes in him as a three-down back. With so many teams using
the committee approach at running back, fantasy owners need to
keep an eye out for any player at the position that is a realistic
threat for 250-300 touches. Mendenhall is one of those players
and, as a result, he should be a fine RB2 in fantasy if he proves
to be all the way back from his injury.
RB
Chris Ivory
2012 Team: New Orleans
2013 Team: New York Jets
Fantasy Analysis: Few players in recent memory have captured
the imagination of their team’s fan base and been rewarded
with less playing time than Ivory in his three years with the
New Orleans Saints. One of the most physical runners in the NFL,
Ivory had the misfortune of being an injury-prone “hammer”
for a team that used a first-round pick (Mark Ingram) to do the
same thing in one of the most prolific passing attacks the league
has ever seen. It is quite possible that Jets new GM John Idzik,
who came over from Seattle, identified Ivory as the back he needed
to bring the same kind of physicality the Seahawks got when they
traded for Marshawn Lynch. Although Ivory has played in 24 games
and received 259 touches in his NFL career, he has only three
catches to his credit. Furthermore, his running style is so violent
that he is a good bet to spend a fair amount of time in the trainers’
room – one of the main reasons he was unable to ever make
a serious move up the Saints’ depth chart. Like most of
the other rushers above him on this list, Ivory has very little
in the way of real competition for touches. Unlike the other backs,
the Jets’ offense is lacking in talent. Combined with his
lack of receiving ability and propensity for injury, Ivory should
probably be considered a strong flex option in PPR leagues and
low-end RB2 in standard leagues.
RB
Shonn Greene
2012 Team: New York Jets
2013 Team: Tennessee
Fantasy Analysis: One of the few backs in recent year to carry
the “feature-back” tag in recent years – and
seemingly disappoint every one of his owners in the process –
took his show on the road to Tennessee, where the Titans hope
he will reprise the role LenDale White used to have. Tennessee
defended the signing by suggesting Greene is a big back that will
help the team in goal-line and short-yardage situations, but the
former Jet has rarely ever played with the power expected out
of a 5-11, 226-pound back. HC Mike Munchak suggested Greene reminded
him somewhat of Eddie George, but OC Dowell Loggains has stated
publicly that he expects his new back to serve only in a change-of-pace
role. Greene’s saving grace could come in the form of his
offensive line, which has a chance to be one of the more talented
in the league if it can stay healthy this season. Greene has virtually
no shot to come anywhere close to White’s memorable 2008
season (200 carries and 15 TDs), but 75% of the workload and perhaps
a third the scoring sounds realistic enough. As is the case with
most backup running backs, Greene figures to have more value to
Chris Johnson owners than those hoping to strike it rich with
a late-round pick at the running back position.
WR
Mike Wallace
2012 Team: Pittsburgh
2013 Team: Miami
Fantasy Analysis: In an odd twist of fate, Wallace was used less
as a deep threat last season in Pittsburgh while Ryan Tannehill
emerged as one of the more accurate deep-ball (attempts 20+ yards
downfield) passers per Pro Football Focus (43.1 % was good for
seventh in the NFL, which was better than Matthew Stafford and
Andrew Luck among others) despite having only Brian Hartline to
throw to in those situations. With Wallace the clear WR1 in Miami
and the team fashioning itself as a contender, the Dolphins figure
to get their money’s worth out of one of this free agency
market’s big prizes. Wallace was forced to become more of
a short- and intermediate-receiver in OC Todd Haley’s offense
with Pittsburgh in 2012 – an experience that figures to
serve him well this season and beyond since Hartline doesn’t
command the same kind of respect that Hines Ward and Antonio Brown
have throughout Wallace’s career. Still, deep balls and
big plays are almost certain to remain Wallace’s bread-and-butter
while Hartline and Dustin Keller focus more on moving the chains.
Few receivers have the kind of speed to burn defenses that scheme
to eliminate deep throws, but Wallace is one of those players.
Entering the prime of his career (will turn 27 in August), Wallace
is a solid bet to have a career year across the board. In fantasy,
he should make for a top-end WR2 who could serve as an owner’s
WR1 should he/she load up at other positions first and wait a
bit on receivers.
WR
Percy Harvin
2012 Team: Minnesota
2013 Team: Seattle
Fantasy Analysis: For most of the early part of Harvin’s
career, he was labeled as an injury risk in part due to migraines,
which he has been able to overcome once it was discovered he was
dealing with sleep apnea. Over the past two seasons, he went from
“injury-prone” to “malcontent” (regarding
his contract situation), which helped expedite his exit from the
Vikings. Fantasy owners will be quick to cite Harvin’s versatility,
familiarity with OC Darrell Bevell and the fact that he is going
to a team in Seattle with superior quarterback play, but the Seahawks
are unlikely to throw the ball much more than they did last year
(536 rushes vs. 405 pass attempts) since Seattle should be playing
with the lead more often than not. Harvin may also get some touches
out of the backfield over the course of the season, but the Seahawks
have an embarrassment of riches at running back, so those opportunities
figure to be limited. None of this is to say that Harvin won’t
still be a WR1-caliber receiver in PPR leagues, but rather that
it seems unlikely he’ll maintain the same level of fantasy
value he enjoyed last season before his ankle injury. Instead,
he’s a better bet to settle in slightly above the level
he produced at in Bevell’s final season in Minnesota (5.1
catches, 70 yards from scrimmage and .43 touchdowns per game).
Over a full 16-game season, that works to 82 receptions for 1,120
scrimmage yards and six TDs – acceptable numbers for a low-end
fantasy WR1 or top-end WR2.
WR
Greg Jennings
2012 Team: Green Bay
2013 Team: Minnesota
Fantasy Analysis: If Jennings can simply post the numbers for
the Vikings this that he accumulated against them in 14 career
games (64 catches, 957 yards and 10 TDs), Minnesota will likely
have no issue with the five-year, $45 M contract it handed him
this offseason. Jennings will move into the “Z” receiver
(flanker) opening that was created when Harvin was traded to Seattle.
To say the least, it is an interesting landing spot for Jennings,
who goes from one of the top options in pass-happy Green Bay’s
offense to the only proven wideout with the run-heavy Vikings.
Harvin generated 79 targets in eight full games before getting
hurt last season and, like his predecessor, Jennings is equally
adept at working outside the hashes or in the slot. In other words,
Jennings can expect to be busy as long as he can hold up (13 games
in 2011, but only eight in 2012). However, Jennings is almost
five years older and isn’t the same kind of dynamic runner
after the catch as the 25-year-old Harvin – two qualities
which figure to make him less attractive in fantasy than the new
Seahawk. Jennings will also have raw but talented rookie Cordarrelle
Patterson opposite him at some point while Kyle Rudolph will likely
be more consistent with another year under his belt – two
things that really helped Harvin pad his target totals last season.
Durability figures to be the biggest question Jennings needs to
answer since he will be the clear No. 1 option in the passing
game if healthy. A top 15-20 finish at his position is easily
achievable for him in PPR and standard formats if he plays 16
games.
WR
Anquan Boldin
2012 Team: Baltimore
2013 Team: San Francisco
Fantasy Analysis: Perhaps no player saw his stock skyrocket more
this offseason than Boldin, who was reportedly on the verge of
a release from the Baltimore Ravens due to his $6 M base salary.
Just over two months later, Boldin became the Niners’ de
facto lead receiver in the wake of Michael Crabtree’s Achilles’
injury, which will likely cost him most – if not all –
of the 2013 season. The Sacramento Bee reported in late May that
Boldin – who will remain at the flanker position while a
host of receivers vie for Crabtree’s split-end opening –
was the top target for all of the Niners’ quarterbacks during
mini-camp, even ahead of Vernon Davis. While no one should expect
Boldin to pick up where Crabtree left off, Boldin has a wonderful
opportunity to turn back the clock for a year. Although he is
entering his age-33 year and creates very little separation, Boldin
showed he was still a more-than-capable receiver as he put the
Ravens’ offense on his back at times during their Super
Bowl run. In San Francisco, he joins an offense led by Colin Kaepernick
and Frank Gore that makes defenses respect the run to the point
where Boldin is unlikely to ever see double coverage. It’s
a recipe for fantasy success, so assuming he can stay on the field
like he did in three years in Baltimore (three total missed games),
Boldin could flirt with high-end fantasy WR2 value in all leagues
in 2013.
WR
Domenik Hixon
2012 Team: New York Giants
2013 Team: Carolina
Fantasy Analysis: There’s a pretty good chance by the time
fantasy drafts roll around this summer, most people will forget
about Hixon and even more will have no idea (or care) he landed
in Carolina. Hixon fought through an ankle injury and concussion
in 2012 after returning from two ACL tears in his right knee in
successive seasons. There’s not a ton of appeal for a player
with that kind of recent injury history, but Hixon was almost
guaranteed the WR3 job the moment he signed with the Panthers
in April. Despite some productive moments in 2012, Brandon LaFell
hasn’t really taken hold of the WR2 job in Carolina (44
catches, 677 yards, four TDs – all career highs) after three
years. Hixon performed well when given the opportunity to fill
in for an injured Hakeem Nicks last season and is a bit of a deep
sleeper to steal LaFell’s job and provide some sneaky WR4-WR5
value for owners late in their drafts. At the very least, he has
a shot at giving Steve Smith, Greg Olsen and Cam Newton a slight
boost as a receiver who can hurt a defense for not paying enough
attention to him. The upside is not incredibly high, but he should
provide quality depth on fantasy owners’ benches in 2013.
TE
Jared Cook
2012 Team: Tennessee
2013 Team: St. Louis
Fantasy Analysis: A lot of coaching is about recognizing a player’s
strengths and putting them in a position to succeed. Former Titans
OC Chris Palmer deserves much of the blame for failing to get
the most out of Cook, who was annually underused because he never
evolved into a great blocker. While he was the play-caller for
the New York Jets, Rams OC Brian Schottenheimer utilized a similarly-skilled–
albeit less talented – player in Keller and managed to coax
a 65-catch, 815-yard, five-TD season out of him in 2011. Cook
is not a high-volume receiver per se (the Rams will have rookie
Tavon Austin for that), but he is a big-play tight end the team
will almost certainly use in the slot opposite Austin in four-wide
packages. (Based on the team’s current roster, it would
not be the least bit surprising if St. Louis goes four-wide on
a fairly regular basis.) It would also not be surprising to see
Cook and Brian Quick serve as the outside receivers nearly the
goal line (given that both players are 6-5) or to see Cook get
some snaps on the outside when Quick needs a rest. Cook is going
to get used a lot and he could easily lead the team in receiving
yards and touchdowns as a result. This should be the year he finally
realizes his low-end TE1 potential in 12-team leagues.
TE
Martellus Bennett
2012 Team: New York Giants
2013 Team: Chicago
Fantasy Analysis: For the first month of last season, Bennett
became a fantasy stud seemingly overnight as he posted solid receiving
totals and scored in each of his first three games. He quickly
fell back down to earth once he suffered what was thought to be
a hyperextended knee in Week 5 but was later discovered to have
involved a torn capsule and bruising to the ACL and PCL. It also
didn’t help matters that defenses also started giving him
the kind of respect afforded to a player who can score in three
straight games. The Giants were unwilling to get into a bidding
war for the free agent and Bennett cashed in with Chicago, where
he will be used all over the field to create mismatches and stretch
the seam down the middle of the field in new HC Marc Trestman’s
offense. Bennett – one of the league’s better blockers
at his position – will be a three-down player and stands
a pretty good chance of building on the success he enjoyed for
parts of last season. Jay Cutler has gotten (and maybe even earned)
some bad press as being a one-read quarterback that a team cannot
count on every week. However, Bennett represents one of the pieces
Chicago has brought in over the past year that has given Cutler
as much talent as he has ever had to work with – including
his days in Denver, where he made Tony Scheffler a household name
in fantasy. Bennett has serious fantasy TE1 upside if he can remain
healthy.
TE
Dustin Keller
2012 Team: New York Jets
2013 Team: Miami
Fantasy Analysis: With the additions of Wallace and Keller, the
Dolphins made it clear they would be attacking more often downfield
in 2013. Unlike Wallace, Keller will have an opportunity to play
with a quality quarterback for the first time in his career. Furthermore,
Keller will join OC Mike Sherman and HC Joe Philbin – coaches
that have been important parts of the offensive staffs that guided
the likes of Bubba Franks, Owen Daniels and Jermichael Finley
to some of the best seasons of their careers. In other words,
Keller’s one-year contract was more of an admission on his
end that he believes he is something much closer to his 2011 numbers
(65-815-5) than his injury-plagued 2012 stats (28-317-2 in eight
games). With Wallace likely to command so much respect from safeties
and Brian Hartline able to work more often in the short- and intermediate-passing
game, Keller should enjoy a bit of a rebirth and possibly even
become Ryan Tannehill’s preferred red-zone target. Keller’s
fantasy arrow is pointing up in a big way, but he should come
reasonably cheap in fantasy drafts given his aforementioned numbers
from a season ago. Keller has low-TE1 upside and should be considered
a good bet to finish among the top 20 at his position.
TE
Brandon Myers
2012 Team: Oakland
2013 Team: New York Giants
Fantasy Analysis: The automatic assumption among many fantasy
owners will be: if Bennett could do what he did last year and
Myers could catch 79 balls for Oakland, then Myers can be a fantasy
force with Eli Manning in New York, right? Not so fast. Myers
became one of the bigger beneficiaries of garbage-time football
in recent memory in 2012 when Palmer knew he could not always
rely on the likes of Denarius Moore or Darrius Heyward-Bey, whether
it was due to injury or poor route-running. Myers is a big talent
downgrade from Bennett (and far worse blocker), although the University
of Iowa product revealed that he played through a sprained AC
joint in his left shoulder. That fact alone could not have helped
his cause against defensive ends when he was asked to remain in-line.
However, he has two factors working in his favor this season:
good hands and the presence of TE coach Mike Pope, one of the
best position coaches in the league. Still, the Giants only signed
him to a one-year deal for a reason: bridge the gap between Bennett
and talented but raw second-year Adrien Robinson. In short, Myers
will probably be one-and-done in New York if Robinson progresses
as hoped and could even lose playing time to him if he proves
ready for more action in 2013. Myers is a risky, low-upside TE2.
This concludes the should-be-drafted portion of our segment.
Below is a list of players that could find themselves fantasy-relevant
at some point should things go their way (sorted by position and
then alphabetical order):
QB
Matt Flynn
2012 Team: Seattle
2013 Team: Oakland
Fantasy Analysis: For the second straight season, Flynn walks
into a situation in which he should emerge as the starter, but
has a talented rookie pushing him. No one will mistake Tyler Wilson
for Russell Wilson, but the fact of the matter is that the only
factor that kept Russell Wilson from being a first-round pick
was his size while Tyler Wilson’s hang-up is that he developed
some bad habits playing while getting the tar beat out of him
behind a porous line. Tyler Wilson was considered by some to be
the best quarterback prospect in the 2013 NFL Draft prior to last
season and a potential top-10 overall pick, so Flynn is living
on borrowed time. The Arkansas alum stands a good chance at stealing
the job from Flynn before midseason, assuming the rookie doesn’t
win the job outright in camp.
QB
Kevin Kolb
2012 Team: Arizona
2013 Team: Buffalo
Fantasy Analysis: Kolb is a player that probably will get drafted
late in deeper leagues, but probably shouldn’t. First and
foremost, even if Kolb starts Week 1, rookie first-rounder E.J.
Manuel is the future at the position and it is a good bet that
HC Doug Marrone and OC Nathaniel Hackett will want to get to that
point sooner than later. Just as importantly, Kolb hasn’t
proven he can stay healthy for any length of time, which may ultimately
be how he ends up handing the job to Manuel.
RB
Mike Goodson
2012 Team: Oakland
2013 Team: New York Jets
Fantasy Analysis: Goodson did a fine job picking a team which
would allow him to be a committee back. While he obviously had
no control over the Jets trading for Chris Ivory, he appeared
to have a chance to be the pass-catching complement. However,
his choice of teams was perhaps the last good decision he made.
Without detailing his entire month of May, Goodson is staring
at a long list of legal issues that could end up in his eventual
release. Assuming he is somehow retained by the Jets, Goodson
has probably dug himself a hole that he won’t be able to
crawl out of this season. If he can somehow make good with the
league and the team, he could have some RB5 value during the season
in PPR leagues.
RB
Danny Woodhead
2012 Team: New England
2013 Team: San Diego
Fantasy Analysis: Depending on the point of view, Woodhead’s
signing with the Chargers is an indication of the new regime’s
belief in Ryan Mathews as a solid early-down back or a slap in
the face to his ability to contribute on third down. Woodhead
is not much of a threat to share carries with Mathews –
nor is Ronnie Brown – but will definitely be in play as
a passing-down and/or two-minute back. Given Mathews’ durability
issues, Woodhead actually makes sense as a RB5 candidate in PPR
leagues. But considering he was a fringe fantasy player in New
England, it is hard to make the argument that his stock will increase
much – if at all – in San Diego.
WR
Donnie Avery
2012 Team: Indianapolis
2013 Team: Kansas City
Fantasy Analysis: Avery shockingly stayed healthy enough to record
60 receptions, 781 yards and three scores last season. However,
Avery moves from former Colts OC Bruce Arians’ vertical
offense to Chiefs HC Andy Reid’s West Coast attack, which
doesn’t figure to be the greatest fit for a speed receiver
like Avery. Ideally, either Jon Baldwin (unlikely) or Dexter McCluster
steps up enough to allow Avery to be a situational deep threat.
Either way, the combination of Reid’s offense, Avery’s
proneness to injury and drops as well as the drop-off from Andrew
Luck to Alex Smith figure to make Avery hard to use in fantasy.
WR
Davone Bess
2012 Team: Miami
2013 Team: Cleveland
Fantasy Analysis: If there is one player from this undrafted
section that could find his way into decent fantasy value at some
point, it is probably Bess – and that was before Josh Gordon’s
two-game suspension was announced. On the surface, Bess doesn’t
fit the mold of a receiver in a Norv Turner offense, but Bess
is a solid chain-mover that can become fast friends with a quarterback
like Brandon Weeden who is playing for his job in 2013. He’s
unlikely to maintain the kind of fantasy-backup value he had in
PPR leagues as a Dolphin, but he could come close.
WR
Darrius Heyward-Bey
2012 Team: Oakland
2013 Team: Indianapolis
Fantasy Analysis: Although the Colts probably upgraded the talent
of their receiving corps by replacing Avery with DHB, they essentially
traded one wideout with inconsistent hands for a bigger one with
the same problem. It is also unclear if the former Raider will
share snaps with smallish playmaker T.Y. Hilton or back him up.
In OC Pep Hamilton’s West Coast offense, Heyward-Bey makes
more sense as a bigger target, but it is just as likely the Colts
turn him into a situational deep threat. If he can share snaps
with Hilton, he warrants a late-round fantasy pick simply because
he’ll be playing with a quarterback that can make him relevant.
Anything less than that, however, means DHB should go undrafted.
Suggestions, comments, about the article
or fantasy football in general? E-mail
me or follow me on Twitter.
Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and appeared in
USA Today’s Fantasy Football Preview magazine in 2010 and
2011. He hosted USA Today’s hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy
football internet chat every Sunday this past season. Doug regularly
appears as a fantasy football analyst on Sirius XM’s “Fantasy
Drive” and for 106.7 The Fan (WJFK – Washington, D.C).
He is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. |