Many will find it surprising that only one player that led the league in “opportunities” (attempts, touches or targets) last year went on to lead his position in fantasy points (Calvin Johnson). In fact, he’s the only player over the last two seasons to do so. By comparison, teammate Matthew Stafford (727 attempts) shattered the previous NFL record for attempts in a season (691) and finished as the 11th-best quarterback. Simply put, the most opportunity does not necessarily lead to the most success; there are simply too many other factors at work in the game of football.

The goal of last week’s Red Zone Report was to serve as a main dish to what should be a rather appetizing dessert this week. If red zone play-calling, production and efficiency give us some idea as to what teams and players will do in scoring territory, then it only makes sense that analyzing the number of opportunities that players receive – and the consistency at which they get them – anywhere on the field should help us uncover the most “stable” fantasy properties and potential “boom-or-bust” candidates. While there will always been sudden stars and unexpected occurrences during the course of the season no matter how much we crunch the numbers, fantasy owners that are the least surprised often find themselves in the best position to make a fantasy championship run.

Along with the Red Zone Report, my hope is that you simply observe the data I have collected over the last two weeks and reach some solid conclusions about the players that will grace our rosters over the next 1-2 months. Even though September 5 (the Thursday night season opener) is not far away, we still have plenty of time to discuss the overvalued and undervalued fantasy players over the next month as I begin releasing my team projections next week. For now, my advice is to just focus on the information and draw some conclusions on your own as you sort through the information. The goal, as always, is to make sure you are easily the most knowledgeable and informed owner in the room on draft day.

After each chart, you will find some statistical observations followed by a “fantasy impact” section. Although I tried to mix one in with the other in order to keep it light, my hope is that you focus mostly on the information below that you will be hard-pressed to find anywhere else.

Key to the table below:

Fant – Player’s rank in a PPR fantasy league where all touchdowns are worth six points.

0-20% - This column represents the percentage of games in which a quarterback attempted 20 throws or less. (By extension, 21-30% represents the percentage of games a quarterback attempted between 21-30 passes, and so on.)

0-20 - This column represents the actual number of games in which a quarterback attempted 20 throws or less. (Just like the sentence above, 21-30 represents the number of games a quarterback attempted between 21-30 passes, and so on.)

Note #1: Quarterbacks had to play in at least eight games. “**” denotes a player – Nick Foles in this case – that did not make the cut but figure to have some impact in 2013.

Note #2: You may sort the table by clicking on the column headers.

Observations: In 2011, only five of the top 10 quarterbacks that ranked in the top 10 in highest percentage of games over 31 attempts (31+) finished in the top 10 in fantasy points. In 2012, the number increased to six. Why is this notable? Given the number of teams that could/did run read-option plays, the majority of the top 10 was still ruled by the quarterbacks that are primarily pocket passers.

For the second year in a row, we saw the law of diminishing returns at quarterback; more volume didn’t necessarily lead to more fantasy points – although 2012 did see more quarterbacks thrive with the extra work. Of the 12 quarterbacks that played at least 15-16 games and attempted 41+ throws in at least 25% of their games, 10 finished among the top 15. In 2011, only nine signal-callers met that threshold and six were top-15 quarterbacks.

While 41+% doesn’t appear to be as great of a predictor for fantasy success as it should be, the number of games in which signal-callers recorded 41+ attempts proved to be a good benchmark to reach in 2012. Of the 13 quarterbacks to post four or more games with 41+ attempts, 10 finished in the top 15 in fantasy points. Only Palmer (constantly in comeback mode), Henne (part-time starter) and Rivers (awful offensive line) found themselves on the outside looking in. In 2011, it was six of 12.

The read-option did make a rather sizable impact last season. In 2011, only Rodgers (46.7), Newton (37.5) and Ryan (31.3) finished among the top 16 fantasy quarterbacks with at least 30% of their games falling into the 0-30% category. In 2012, three of the top 11 – Wilson, Griffin and Newton ranked among the top 10 fantasy quarterbacks while Kaepernick would have almost certainly been included in that group had he been named the starter before Week 11.

Fantasy impact: Although more attempts would seem to be more of a good thing, remember why quarterbacks often air it out that often: because their team is trailing. Defenses are willing to trade yards in order to melt the clock, but quarterbacks often force throws in those situations in an effort to move the ball downfield quicker. High-risk plays can be big plays…for either side. After the elite signal-callers are gone, targeting a non-elite quarterback that lives in the 31-40 attempt neighborhood is a solid move for fantasy owners. Elite quarterbacks (Peyton Manning, Brady, Brees, etc.) have earned the right from their coaches to attempt more throws because they have proven they will not put the offense in harm’s way, regardless of the situation.

Stafford was last year’s best example that sheer volume doesn’t mean everything; very few quarterbacks can overcome the loss of their explosive pass-catching back (Jahvid Best) and three receivers (Nate Burleson, Titus Young and Ryan Broyles) who all figured prominently into their plans going into last season. Conversely, Rodgers has proven two years in a row the combination of running ability and passing efficiency means a lot; only three of his 31 games over the past two seasons have featured more than 41 attempts. (He has accumulated 17 games of 31-40 attempts and 11 with fewer than 30 throws.)

Running Backs

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